MR77: Cycle Two: See an Enemy

[coco.pudding she/they]

22 minutes ago, Illwei said:

While I'm on the topic of "responding to you," I'd love if you would elaborate on who you might think the Elim team is based on your NK analysis. You said you don't know quite who you would put in that box of "Active, controlling thread, and confident," but do you have any GTH ideas? 

I have some ideas, tbh this is not the part of solving I’m the best at but I will certainly try!

So basically people I’m looking at for that elim thread controller spot would be you, Hoid, TUC, just based on who was most active last cycle. Of those three, I’d say the one I’m most suspicious of would be Hoid. I didn’t like his vote at the beginning all that much, and I also feel like he was spending a lot of time talking about things that were really not things we needed to be talking about during cycle one - and as a result taking away time that could have been spent discussing other, potentially more important topics.

I would guess we have a three person elim team based on the player count (four seems ridiculous and I’ve never seen two). So my current thought is to go after that more active, controlling one first, and then try to find connections from them to the others. 

22 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I will admit, I forgot to submit my actions...but what...uh...were your guys' excuse?

I also forgot. Yesterday was crazy. Lots of things going wrong and much business. So that’s my bad, and I will try to do better in the future.

PS willing to get favor today if that’s helpful. I haven’t seen anyone else signing up for that yet, so may as well. 
(On that note I’d suggest we have three people add favor if possible this cycle. Enmity is two so an insurance person would be helpful.)

22 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I can't push them because they said they were busy?

Please do push me if you’d like, I am trying but dci is a wild time. I don’t mind if you want to talk about me or ask me stuff, and I will respond when I am able.

22 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I think the first awkward post I saw from coco was their response to myst- Myst said "i better be able to trust you," and Coco replied "I was about to say the same to you."

If you read any of the last few games you will note very similar stuff happening—Myst has a tendency to tunnel on me quite a lot and we never trust each other. It would be pretty funny if it hadn’t led to village losing or almost losing several times.

[Illwei]

18 minutes ago, coco.pudding said:

So basically people I’m looking at for that elim thread controller spot would be you, Hoid, TUC, just based on who was most active last cycle. Of those three, I’d say the one I’m most suspicious of would be Hoid. I didn’t like his vote at the beginning all that much, and I also feel like he was spending a lot of time talking about things that were really not things we needed to be talking about during cycle one - and as a result taking away time that could have been spent discussing other, potentially more important topics.

I had a longer response written here, but I want to do what I said to myself I wouldn't do this game- I'm gonna look through some of Hoid's older games before commenting on my thoughts on him. 

I think there are some things that he does that reads as standard Elim setup- 

The opening with the first idea for correct mech play, but not taking a for sure side on it. Then agreeing with me when I said I didn't think it was the right choice. 
The style of his posts which are mostly mass quote responses with one liners that don't address much. (including the agreement when the idea of Elims self-targeting with the factional as if that was a reasonable idea, and not one to counter??)
In general being very agreeable (see: agreeing with my contradiction of him, with Myst on Elims self-kill, with Grub on no exeing, with TJ kinda on Wahr.)
Sitting on his same vote all day, even when he didn't want TUC dead supposedly, he didn't swap his vote to anyone else, just proposed people went on Qian and Wahr. 

So like. Yeah. 

Idk coco, you convinced me ig. went through to do a trustfall and reverse but the only good parts I felt were pretty much 

His tone, being free of sorts
Being the first to place a vote

I think that was pretty much it 

--

Side comment to talk about grub-  I do again believe them to be village. Re-reading over their posts in C1 just make me think moreso. 
Their change in tone isn't as big as it felt in the moment, and I feel as though they're putting more thought into it than I would expect an Elim in their place to. Especially because I would expect the other Ghostbloods to be asking/encouraging them to play into the newbie angle for their first game. 

Also about TJ- I didn't think much about the vote yesterday, but voting on Wahr because you agreed with/could understand Hoid's vote on Qian, and Wahr didn't is...I mean, the correct path is to vote qain there, or perhaps town Hoid. The logic doesn't follow to them vote Wahr for not seeing it. I suppose I'm guilty of this too. 

I don't know what to think about that. 

Again going to post this now because it's getting too long and people should be able to respond

[Illwei]

EDIT: 

I also lean V in gen on coder, really only because he popped in to disagree with two people's reads, and not to townread anything. I see that kinda pop in as towny more than not. 

I'm gonna go ahead and Hoid

ED2T:

Well that's embarassing....

Uhm.....

Could someone...uh....Araris? maybe? 

[Mint11 she/her]

1 hour ago, coco.pudding said:

PS willing to get favor today if that’s helpful. I haven’t seen anyone else signing up for that yet, so may as well. 
(On that note I’d suggest we have three people add favor if possible this cycle. Enmity is two so an insurance person would be helpful.)

I can gain favor today too. agreed that having three people add it would be good just in case

[coco.pudding she/they]

25 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Side comment to talk about grub-  I do again believe them to be village. Re-reading over their posts in C1 just make me think moreso. 
Their change in tone isn't as big as it felt in the moment, and I feel as though they're putting more thought into it than I would expect an Elim in their place to. Especially because I would expect the other Ghostbloods to be asking/encouraging them to play into the newbie angle for their first game. 

I also feel like if Grub was elim he would probably be playing up the newbie angle a lot more—especially as a new player that’s a very valid and easy way to slip under the radar because we wouldn’t expect much of him. The fact that he’s not makes me lean more village on him. He’s brought up some interesting stuff and is clearly thinking deeply into things which does indicate someone trying to do their best as a new villager to me.

[Ascended Grubberfly He/Him]

Oh boy people are talking about me!

*cough*
 

Since we have proven that my reads are unreliable, but I did bring up the Hoid being agreeable thing the other day if that counts for something, I instead have a different thing I wanted to discuss.

The Agreement with Axies. We can’t let the Ghostbloods get that. We won’t know it’s hurting us and they have plenty of other ways to limit our Favor. I say we have two options: 1. We either all go for the agreement and hope sheer force of numbers outdoes the elims or 2. We have (# of elims + X) go after it and hope that’s enough. Option 1 is good but it limits how many items we can get and therefore our future Favor. Option 2 gives us more items but it risks the elims getting the Agreement which would be a nightmare.

[The Unknown Character he/him]

I'm not really seeing what people are saying about Hoid. 

Qian's behavior was definitely odd. Self pressing that early is definitely a weird decision, and it is interesting to me that they joined the train that formed more recently. In general, I'm more suspicious of a later train being a countertrain rather than the ones that have been around longer. It doesn't mean much on its own, but it is a factor. Qian cause I don't really have any better leads.

Edit: I forgot to respond to Illwei. I wasn't saying that Coco actually seems more suspicious when village (though she definitely does seem more villagey when elim imo). She's just been on the wrong end of huge trains three times across two games, and we were wrong all three.

I also didn't realize we could get items with our bonus action, so I didn't use my bonus action. 

Edited yesterday at 01:06 AM by The Unknown Character

[Illwei]

14 minutes ago, coco.pudding said:

I also feel like if Grub was elim he would probably be playing up the newbie angle a lot more—especially as a new player that’s a very valid and easy way to slip under the radar because we wouldn’t expect much of him. The fact that he’s not makes me lean more village on him. He’s brought up some interesting stuff and is clearly thinking deeply into things which does indicate someone trying to do their best as a new villager to me.

Yeah exactly

Im kinda at a point where theres some people I cant quite call anything right now-

Star, tj, coder, hopper

In terms of reads on them Id probably say light V on hopper and lighter v on coder based on what I said earlier. 

Bad feelings around tj right now for what I said earlier, his logic of voting wahr. 

In terms of everyone else:

Hoid, TUC, coco, grub, mint, qian.

Im ~fine with a qian exe today, but I dont like how it seems to be the natural progression with limited discussion. May review and change my mind. 

grub, mint are people I trust at the moment.

Mint, grub, hopper are the people I would like for sure to stay alive today. 

Coco, tuc, and coder are probably right outside the pool today for me, depending on more flips. 

 

Tj, star, qian, hoid

Theoretically I should be fine with any exe in this pool. Theoretically. 

 

I feel like you can tell when im mobile posting vs on comp lol

[Ascended Grubberfly He/Him]

Darak climbed the path to meet with the king. Had the old king died? She was a strong person, but accidents happened to even the strongest of people. As Darak climbed, he took the time to watch the youths jump from the ledges. He himself was young, in roughly his 25th Weeping, but these Reshi had lived in only their Isle their entire life, blessed with innocence.

Darak took special notice of one boy who seemed to hesitate before each jump. Despite urging others to jump from the height, he still feared the heights. This one likely jumped from much lower when there wasn't anyone to show off to. Eventually, the number of jumpers dwindled as the heights grew dangerous, until the jumpers simply walked behind the merchants, whispering words just out of earshot then giggling like toddlers watching windspren victims. At one ledge, Darak parted from the group to stand on the edge, feeling the wind cool him in the hot sun.

The same youth saw Darak break from the group, and saw a chance to embarrass a foreigner, perhaps impress his friends. "Planning on jumping, Trader?" the youth spoke Thaylen, but it wasn't very good. "Or too scared to get your precious clothes wet."

Ah, Darak thought as he looked at the youths lack of clothing, he's one those. Blustering kid thought he could intimidate him through streaking?! Blustering kid.

Darak started removing his shoes. "Why not? Might even be fun." Darak pulled off his shirt and gestured to the cliff, "Care to join me?" The youth walked closer, clearly wanting to embarrass him. "You willing to get those pants wet? Are you such a high and mighty Vorin prude that you can't swim bare? Too scared, Trader?"

"Guess I'm just not as brave as you. Not jumping then?"

"Bah, stupid Trader. It's too high to jump anyways."

"Ah, I suppose it is a little high. Welp, maybe I can jump on the way down." Darak gathered his clothes walked back to the crew, who had stopped to watch the interaction. "Yes, walk away scared Trader." The youth was practically bursting with the fact he had just embarrassed Darak so much and was right behind him, trying to drive the win further. "Why not just run back to the Mainland, and spend your days all com..." The kid walked straight into Darak, who had turned to face the ledge. "Guess you're too scared to join me. This should be far enough."

With that, Darak dropped his shoes and shirt and bolted off the edge.

The wind rushed past Darak as he fell, the windspren coiling around his body and luckspren seemingly pulling him down faster. He laughed as he remembered the days of his own youth and his jumping days. As the water approached, Darak streamlined his body into a vertical line, keeping his body straight as he hit the surface. He swam with the spren as he approached the shore.

Oh how I've missed this, Darak thought as he climbed ashore, Oh how I've missed this.

Spoiler

I'm kinda unpracticed with writing, so if anyone has thoughts or advice I'm open to hearing it!

 

[CoderDrag0n8 He/They]

On 7/3/2026 at 7:03 PM, Hoid Slayer said:

Whoopsie doopsy

Qian cause yes although the votes from this rollover definitely merit a deeper analysis

Also apologies folk for not being online for rollover, I really did plan to be but I got caught up watching the Argentina - Cabo Verde game and when I checked the time afterwards it was too late

@CoderDrag0n8 since we don’t have PMs anymore can you just answer for me pretty please: Yes or no?

If you don’t know what I’m talking about it’s probably no

Archer I’ll get around to your RP prompt eventually I promise

I think I gave you an answer?

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

Sorry guys it’s too late

20 minutes ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

I think I gave you an answer?

Did you?

Lemme check

Okay I don’t know if you know what I’m talking about

Illwei I noticed you voted me

Real quick the reason I immediately voted Qian was cause I still thought he was sus from C1, and I’m purely going off immediate vibes in this game so far cause I haven’t had any time to actually do any solving

I think I saw someone ask about PMs somewhere

The only person I actively PMed was TJ. I planned to PM more but the Shard failed me yesterday

I had PMs with Coder and Myst, both of whom messaged me

Coder started out talking about our RP characters, then asked me to summarize the rules for him, and if I’m right about another thing (the thing I’ve been asking him about) then that is pretty weird

In reflection feels like textbook elim PM pocketing behavior, reminds me of my first game with Polly

Myst PM is obviously not super important, although he did tell me he was an Officer, which makes me wonder how freely he was sharing that info

TJ seemed village to me

[Qianweilian He/him]

11 hours ago, Illwei said:

I think there are some things that he does that reads as standard Elim setup- 

There was also that time Hoid got grumpy about not being elim for some time; to me that feels off. Idk if that's really elim indicative though...

[Illwei]

@Hoid Slayer, @Stardust, @The Unknown Character, @coco.pudding, @Through the Living Hopper, @Mint11, @Qianweilian, @CoderDrag0n8, @|TJ|

I'm just going to boost what Grub said earlier about axies- Everyone should be going for it this round. It's a big step closer to losing the game if the Elims get it. 

Additionally, I believe everyone, or most people, should use their bonus action slot to go for it (unblockable action.)

I'm headed to work until an hour before rollover, so I'm submitting now and hope that all of you do to. 

--

I was looking through some old games, they're extremely convoluted recently so it's not working too well lol. 

I think I'm standing by my read of coco. 

I think one thing that's silly but is standing in between me and village reading Qian, is the use of "last village game." again, it's silly, and the fact that they reference a village game at first is a good sign. 

Were they an Elim in lg112? I think their comparing Myst to that is interesting if so...

I'm spitballing waiting to clock into work. But yeah. 

If Qain was an Elim in LG112, then I think that he is still more likely a villager here. It's still hard to compare anything to LG112 or the game Aman ran, which seem to be the more recent games. 

Was LG111 FFA? I'm so lost. 

Either way I'm NGL I do think that I don't wanna kill Qian today. I think his defensiveness isn't AI, considering his other content having been engaged. People are focusing on his first and last posts- and self preservation isn't AI in and of itself.

I really want people to talk about Qian more if they are voting on him. There is a lot of votes (3 I believe), for basically self-pres and his defensiveness in the beginning. Can we start looking at more than this ?

Qian do you have any comments on what's been said so far? 

Late to work now but I'll see yall later. If you do nothing else, grab Axies. Elims will be. We gotta be too. 

 

 

 

[The Unknown Character he/him]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

was looking through some old games, they're extremely convoluted recently so it's not working too well lol. 

Hey! 

Qian was indeed an elim in LG112. At least, they were a metaelim, which was as close to a normal elim as that game got

[Ascended Grubberfly He/Him]

When is rollover? Is it just every day at 8 or every other?

[Illwei]

5 minutes ago, Ascended Grubberfly said:

When is rollover? Is it just every day at 8 or every other?

Every other, I may have forgotten when this started so I actually think rollover is tomorrow. Lol. 

[Qianweilian He/him]

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

Were they an Elim in lg112? I think their comparing Myst to that is interesting if so...

As TUC said, I was yeah. Myst was village in both the meta and pseudogames. (it was a weird ruleset)

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

Was LG111 FFA? I'm so lost.

The main gimmick of that game was the ruleset was selected randomly from among three. (and we had to figure it out) The ruleset that was selected was a FFA, yes.

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

Qian do you have any comments on what's been said so far? 

Not really, other than I think most people should try to grab the Axies. Also, I can claim responsibility for one favor.

[Archer he/him]

Rollover is in ~4.5 hours, at 8pm EST

[Ascended Grubberfly He/Him]

20 minutes ago, Archer said:

Rollover is in ~4.5 hours, at 8pm EST

Ah. I see.

Okay, so @Qianweilian has offered to take responsibility for one Favor. Is there anyone else who can help, preferable two or more people?

I lack Favor this cycle, so I can’t help.

Don’t forget your action either pretty please!

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

I'm hesitant to e!read Qian here, because his post in self-defense seems normal and calm.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

That’s guys I don’t know if H trust myself to vote today

Coder’s PM with me coupled with his demeanor last cycle did strike me as kinda weird though

I’m also gonna be really busy tomorrow I have two college visits

Ykw maybe I can actually read through this after the Brazil-Norway game is over I have some free time

Bye bye for now

Oh and I can’t give Favour this cycle either

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, Through the Living Hopper said:

I'm hesitant to e!read Qian here, because his post in self-defense seems normal and calm.

Any thoughts on those who are ? 

[Qianweilian He/him]

47 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

That’s guys I don’t know if H trust myself to vote today

You voted for me, Hoid (again self preservation)

[coco.pudding she/they]

Essyn had stayed up all night with Ralm, fetching water and blankets, cleaning the vomit from his bed, desperately trying to acquire some kind of medicine to calm his stomach. In the end, it had been too late. He died just as the first rays of sun touched the horizon.

She had collected his trinkets then, and begun making arrangements for what to do with his body until he could be returned home. She sent a message via spanreed back to Thaylenah with the news of his death.

Then she prepared for the day. Prepared to make sure the trade negotiations went well, to make sure her Babsk’s final work was completed. She could do that for him, at least. For his legacy, as thanks for all he had done for her. Mourning would come later.

———————

Okay so I don’t particularly see e!Qian. A lot of his actions and defensiveness feel fairly in character for him when he is village and getting exed early (which does happen a decent amount). 

I do think there’s a good chance of Hoid being elim (as I said earlier) so I think that’s where my vote is going to sit, unless something crazy happens in the next ~1.5 hours until rollover.

[Illwei]

3 minutes ago, Qianweilian said:

You voted for me, Hoid (again self preservation)

If you weren't voting for Hoid out of self-pres, where do you think you'd be voting? 

Last cycle you tried to stay away from his wagon, so just wondering.