Long Game 106: On the Shores of The Black Lake

[|TJ| he/him]

Coinshot killed by a Coinshot, hm.

Teal's behaviour during the previous days showed he was holding back, perhaps to be careful with his shots. This lines up with the news from Aral. Teal did not shoot anyone during the last night as well. Astrid, instead, was a victim of Spiked. 

This meant that either there was another Coinshot who also kept quiet till the last night, or more likely, a Mistborn finally got their hands on some Steel vials. Assuming it's the latter, now the question was if this Mistborn was a villager or Spiked. 

Astrid's death brings up another issue. Why would the Spiked want to show that the day 1 argument was between villagers? Lots to think about.

[KaladinsSenseOfHumourSpren He/Him]

Mil now knew what Teal meant when he said that he'd either kill or Push the coinshot for Mil's Trolley Coinshot Problem.

23 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

”I had already suspected Mil a fair amount. I feel my analysis is reasonable, and can see how Jox’s behavior in that first day could have been with the intent of privately searching for allomancers dangerous to the Spiked’s cause. Which leaves me accusing Mil, Jox, and Lipitor as being Spiked. There is a chance there is a fourth wild card that I missed in my analysis, but I put forward the motion that we vote for one of my three suspects. My vote today shall be for Jox, as I feel his alignment would give us the most information.

"I too shall vote for Jox, if only to prove that it isn't me."

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

"I think Fox might have been the killer pa."

Gurvani stopped, and turned to look at where Jox was staring at a open bag of flour instead of kneeding dough. "Uh, you wanna run that by me again Jox?"

He shrugged. "I think it's Fox. I'm not sure why. Vibes mostly?"

Gurvani rubbed his forehead, and considered whether or not to tell him to get back to work. It was important to find the killers before anyone in their family was attacked, true, but was it really their place? Well, it didn't seem like he could do anything to keep Jox out of it at this point. The only way out was through. "Alright, what has he done to give you bad vibes?"

"He was, nice to me? When I was sick? it felt weird."

Gurvani stared at his son. "I don't think that killers tend to be nice to people who are sick, or, if they do, I don't think it's differently than normal people do."

"I don't know. It just felt weird. Like he was satisfied that I was sick? Satisfied that I wasn't doing anything to threaten him?"

"Well, if that's the only reason, I don't think it's enough to accuse someone before Aral. What has he done that doesn't relate to you?"

Jox thought about it, now staring at the ceiling instead of the wall. "So far, he's voted on Lijal, Madiane, and Derrick, two of whom we know to be village, and Madiane, who I trust. He didn't really think much of Keldorn's or my first votes on him, but he did defend himself from the side, claiming I was acting uncharacteristically, and he has a lot of experience with manipulating Keldorn. He's actually mentioned me a lot. 5 different times he's talked about me, and he's only talked 7 times. I don't know. Mostly he just says I'm acting weird and leaves it at that. He's never actually voted on me, like he dosn't want to be the one leading a vote, or he's content to just let me aim at the wrong people. Maybe that will change today, with 2 people already calling for my head."

Gurvani didn't like the sound of that. "Well, he can't be working alone, so who would his allies be?"

"Mil and Josha."

"Why? I don't see the connection."

'Two primary reasons. Of the living, he's at least mentioned everyone other than Lipitor, Antari, Mil, and Josha. If Lipitor or Antari are spiked, I have no way to find out, as they have said nothing of relevance to the murders. Secondly, I trust everyone else. Keldorn and Var I trust because of their actions, Madiane and Keamen I trust because of the words of Keldorn and Var, and because of the general vibes I have from them."

Gurvani frowned. "So, it's just a process of elimination then? Mil and Josha haven't done anything suspicious of themself?" 

"Nothing concrete, but Josha was very interested in any possible gossip I could give him. And Mil hasn't done anything that is of note, other than his strange votes on Var and I. Neither of them strike me as having been done with good intent, or even intent to actually solve, just to keep death flowing. It feels like he's just jumped on easy wagons every time. So, yeah, I'd happily vote for Fox, Mil, or Josha."

"Do you think they're the only ones?"

Jox nodded. With this few Allomancers in town? Yeah. I think there might be a village Mistborn who attacked Teal at the same time that the Spiked did, with this plague of inactivity killing Astrid. Not sure though."

 

 

[|TJ| he/him]

Heh, quite funny that just as I was about to say that I could see a narrative being constructed nefariously on Jox by either Mil or Var or both, Jox turns on me. 

13 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

"I don't know. It just felt weird. Like he was satisfied that I was sick? Satisfied that I wasn't doing anything to threaten him?"

14 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Mostly he just says I'm acting weird and leaves it at that. He's never actually voted on me, like he dosn't want to be the one leading a vote, or he's content to just let me aim at the wrong people.

I wouldn't say I was satisfied by that. I was giving Jox time for him to get better so I can read him more accurately. I had spoken about him just once after that, and it was because of his vote, and it's the votes that I was analysing. Also as it was night, and I could not accuse someone in the night, could I?  As far as I could recall, this is the first time Jox was speaking in detail after that.

If I wanted an excuse to vote Jox out without appearing to be a leader, I could have done so after Var's accusation on him. It's been more than 24 hours since Var's accusation, surely I could have just followed Var if I wanted that. 

"Not really satisfied. I was just giving you time to recover. This is the most you've said since then."

26 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Secondly, I trust everyone else. Keldorn and Var I trust because of their actions, Madiane and Keamen I trust because of the words of Keldorn and Var, and because of the general vibes I have from them."

I know I've been following and generally been around Keldorn a lot lately, but even so, I could not trust him to such a high level. I wonder how Jox could.

"What actions? Do you have something specific?"

I just recalled something I was discussing with Keldorn yesterday. 

"@Kasimir, what do you think of Keamen today?"

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

8 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

"What actions? Do you have something specific?"

"He stopped trusting me very quickly. It's a small thing, but when Keldorn is trying to deceive people, his reads don't change nearly as much as they have these past few days. He vacillates a lot when he doesn't have information. When he does know exactly who's evil, he sticks to his reads and gets more irritated that the villagers don't follow his lead.

"As for Var, he set up way to many if/then chains that started with his execution. 'If I die, search among X, Y, and Z for the spiked.' He didn't die, and many of those among his suspicions have or their alignments are known to me, because I as one of them. It didn't make sense for an Eliminator to make those posts, when it was very likely he would be executed. his survival came in the last few hours, and if he had flipped Eliminator, we wouldn't have followed his if/then suspicion chains."

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

Kéamen was tired. He didn’t have the time, nor the effort to be nearly as active in the investigation of the crimes as he would have liked.

He hadn’t been up to date with the accusations, and so he struggled to understand the logic employed by others such as Jox and Keldorn. So he would refrain from a vote today, as he did not feel himself capable of judging well. He would, however, impart some information for those who were active to hopefully get to the bottom of this.

First: he wanted to acknowledge that while not all the Spiked were active, at least one of them almost certainly was, and his instincts pointed to Var. Of the inactive, Lipitor was also suspicious - although they all were, to an extent.

Additionally, with the arrival of Kéamen’s mentor to Blackkeep on the horizon, he might as well throw every card he had. It was time to dispense with the secrets that had dominated Kéamen’s world for the last year. He could bear them no longer. Was he weak for feeling that way? Perhaps. But as an ember simmered in Kéamen’s heart, he found hus anger not directed at himself, but towards his mentor. An ember he would have to deal with urgently, yet not instantly.

Ever since his first night in Blackkeep, something… odd had happened to Kéamen. At first, it had frightened him. He could hear  rats in the walls, feel every grain of dust on the floor. It hadn’t taken him long to realize they were the abilities of a Tineye.

That second night (the first after the murders) Kéamen had scrawled a message on the floor of the market square in the shadows of the night, hoping his voice, anonymous, would carry weight.

He had tried to do the same tonight, but some invisible force had stopped him. Finally, after hours questioning, he had realized what it was.

A Soothing.

[Kasimir he/him]

8 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

“While it appears that the cause of Teal’s death was the fall, I am quite confident that a Coinshot was involved, though I can’t say whether or not the Coinshot was Spiked.”

This was worse news to Keldorn.

He'd the vague sense that it was often very difficult to manage a Spiked Coinshot, or a second villager of Blackkeep turning out to be a Coinshot. If there was one, then they probably should have seen more deaths the first night, or more survivals over the last day. There were reasons Keldorn could potentially see a Spiked Coinshot working, though he declined to offer too much comment about them. It still wasn't the hypothesis he immediately favoured.

To Keldorn, this looked more like action from a Mistborn who'd procured a vial of steel, though whether the Mistborn was Spiked or a Villager, Keldorn could not immediately tell.

He was curious about Var's insistence that a Seeker had discovered Teal's Allomantic abilities and sniped him in light of this revelation. 

Quote

“If a friendly Coinshot is out there,” Var said to no one in particular, “I think Teal would be a great choice for a murder victim.”

Var himself had expressed his suspicions of Teal the previous night, as had Keldorn. Keldorn rather thought he could see a Village Mistborn who had acquired a steel vial choosing to snipe Teal. Perhaps they'd also been suspicious of Teal. He couldn't deny that a hostile Seeker was also a possibility, however. He simply didn't think it was the immediate inference and found that a little strange.

(There was a third world in which a Spiked Mistborn had acquired a vial of steel and then chosen to shoot Teal. This was possible if the Spiked wished to leave open the room for claiming for some light Village credit, if only to say they'd made the killing shot as requested. But one thing about this world Keldorn had wondered about: why didn't they simply shoot Keldorn using the extra firepower then? Or Var? Or, assuming they were Villagers as well, Fox or Jox? Or even Kéamen, when he'd been vocal? 

Studying the patterns underlying the way a criminal committed a crime told you a lot about who they were, how they were thinking. The problem was that Keldorn found himself surprised by their choices.

7 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Astrid's death brings up another issue. Why would the Spiked want to show that the day 1 argument was between villagers? Lots to think about.

This was part of what confounded Keldorn. The Spiked killing Astrid indicated that the Spiked didn't see it as a problem that the Village learned that the two leading suspects on the first day were in fact Villagers. The other half of it was that the Spiked didn't seem interested in killing the loud, vocal Blackkeepers in the market square. Perhaps it said a lot about Keldorn's personal biases, since he personally thought that was a pretty normal set of targets for Spiked.

Keldorn wondered if this implied that the Spiked were not particularly concerned about accusation analysis here, or in fact, thought it would benefit them. There was also the question of why they'd chosen to murder Astrid—was this about informational control, since Astrid had not said or done anything? Or was this because they weren't feeling particularly threatened by where the Village was currently headed?

One way or another, what Keldorn thought he could take away from the kill patterns was a sneaking suspicion there was at least one Spiked among Jox and Fox. He felt alright throwing Kéamen in with that group—Keldorn's informants had suggested that Kéamen had a decent amount of skill as well. To Keldorn, the one thing he felt comfortable taking away was that the discipline to choose low-profile or quieter targets suggested that the Spiked could not simply be reactive. That pointed to steady hands on the knife.

5 hours ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Jox nodded. With this few Allomancers in town? Yeah. I think there might be a village Mistborn who attacked Teal at the same time that the Spiked did, with this plague of inactivity killing Astrid. Not sure though."

Though Keldorn thought Jox had brought up a fair point. He was of the view that the stabbing indicated that Astrid had died to the Spiked, but perhaps it was not so, and Astrid had simply died of natural causes. Or unnatural causes, since inactivity seemed fairly unnatural to Keldorn. He wondered if Aral could shed a little light on this. [ @Araris Valerian ]

Particularly because if Jox was actually correct...Perhaps the Spiked killer had been blocked by a Soother? If so, then Kéamen's unsolicited claim he'd been Soothed was something Keldorn was side-eyeing.

Though this did remind Keldorn that it was possible the Spiked killer could also have been redirected to kill Astrid. He wasn't so sure where he'd weight this possibility, though it seemed a fair one. He'd have thought the more natural redirect was to get the Spiked to stab themselves, but maybe the Rioter was concerned about accidentally catching a Village Coinshot or Mistborn?

If so, then Keldorn's qualms about the kill profile just didn't apply here at all.

4 hours ago, |TJ| said:

"@Kasimir, what do you think of Keamen today?"

"I've partly outlined my thoughts with regard to kill patterns," Keldorn admitted. "With Astrid turning out to be a villager after all, I don't really feel Kéamen's vote on Astrid is as exculpatory after all. I don't really understand the mentality or motivation behind Kéamen's claiming here and now since I don't really feel Tineye is something that is particularly Village-coded. Given that Teal was a Village Coinshot, I find it difficult to believe there isn't a Village Lurcher out there, and while they haven't gotten a successful interception off, I understand their pain, interception is hard."

He'd done a round of Hazekiller training before, back with Garrison. Learning how to use a thick wooden shield to block coins was rough, and Keldorn had the cuts and bruises and even a scar above his right eyebrow to prove it.

"Narrowing this pool down for the Spiked isn't really helpful for us," Keldorn added. "I suppose in general: I don't really feel Kéamen has allayed my suspicions of him with regard to the sudden shift in dislike of execution, inconsistency in views on pressure voting, broad suspicion spread leading to pushing soft targets, and I'm of the view there's one Spiked within you, Jox, and Kéamen. If I had to expand it, I suppose I would begin rethinking Var if only because I could see a Spiked Var switching to and fro when the two lead suspects are Villagers, because there's no real investment in either suspect, so as to speak."

He paused, and looked over at Var.

"Even then, it feels kind of excessive for Spiked Var? I don't know. Var switched back from Astrid to Lijal once he saw Lijal was viable. I still think that felt sincere and I'm not so sure Var, as a Spiked, in the heat of the moment, given the time pressure and the short window to react to Madiane, remembers he's stated suspicion of Lijal and follows Madiane back onto Lijal. I think he'd just stay put because what does it matter? A Villager is dead either way. Maybe I'm wrong about this. What are your thoughts on Var or Kéamen at this point? Why doesn't Var's behaviour on the first day sway you?"

He added, a final rejoinder. "I do find myself wondering if Kéamen's choice to step back after facing pressure is to duck the heat and let everyone else slug it out." He'd seen wanted men do that, when the heat of the Steel Ministry's attention became too severe. "At the same time, I think that's just uncharitable, and it makes me wonder if I'm tunnelled. And—rust happens to everyone. Life's just a pain like that. I don't really feel good wondering about that kind of thing, but you asked, and I acknowledge that's a thought that went through my head, even though I'm doing my damnedest to leave it out of my evaluation of Kéamen."

[StrikerEZ he/him]

@Hoid Slayer "Keamen," Var said, "I understand your hesitance to vote, but we are in dire straights. We could be facing the end of the line here, if there are four Spiked. We need every vote we can get."

Var pulled out a transcription about allomantic powers, showing it to Keldorn (@Kasimir) :

Quote

SOOTHER: Their ability to manipulate emotions puts them and the Rioter in a very special position. During the Night, they can negate one person’s action. The target will be notified that they were roleblocked, if they took an action that was blocked. Ruin’s influence on an individual is more powerful than that of a normal Allomancer, however, so the Spiked kill cannot be stopped by Soothing.

RIOTER: The Rioter works in a similar fashion as the Soother, except once during the night round they can change one person’s action target. The target will be aware that they were Rioted and notified of who their final target was, if they took such an action. As with the Soother, a normal Allomancer cannot overcome Ruin’s influence, so the target of the Spiked kill cannot be changed by Rioting.

"I like your theory," Var said, "but I highly doubt a Rioter or Soother would be strong enough to stop one of the Spiked from killing. The will of Ruin is just too strong for a mortal to overcome.

"The clarification from Aral does make things...confusing. With so few suspects, I doubt the possibility of a second coinshot. This was likely the act of a Mistborn, one who got their hands on the little bit of steel we have in this town. Like you have said, I can't tell whether killing Teal would have been the actions of a villager or of the Spiked. I also have to wonder if Teal even attempted to use his powers to kill someone, or if he was soothed. I could see the latter being the case." 

Edited June 16, 2025 by StrikerEZ
Removed an accidental emoji

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

27 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Perhaps the Spiked killer had been blocked by a Soother?

"Keldorn, I don't think that-" Var stepped in and handed Keldorn the latest copy of the Treatise Metallurgic, bookmarked to the page about Soothers. "Nevermind, you've been told."

29 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Even then, it feels kind of excessive for Spiked Var? I don't know. Var switched back from Astrid to Lijal once he saw Lijal was viable. I still think that felt sincere and I'm not so sure Var, as a Spiked, in the heat of the moment, given the time pressure and the short window to react to Madiane, remembers he's stated suspicion of Lijal and follows Madiane back onto Lijal. I think he'd just stay put because what does it matter? A Villager is dead either way. Maybe I'm wrong about this. What are your thoughts on Var or Kéamen at this point? Why doesn't Var's behaviour on the first day sway you?"

"Var, in our PM's, did try quite hard to get me to switch from Astrid to Lijal. He was sincere in believing that Lijal was the better target, but I refused to switch, because I knew that he would cave and switch to Astrid if I didn't, and Lijal was a friend I trusted. He didn't make those votes in the heat of the moment. He knew we needed an execution, and only switched to Astrid because he really thought that Lijal was out of his reach. I don't believe he was hiding or acting during that time.

"While it is plausible a Spiked Var would do the same, since Lijal was active and Astrid was not, I do think he is Innocent."

[Kasimir he/him]

9 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

"I like your theory," Var said, "but I highly doubt a Rioter or Soother would be strong enough to stop one of the Spiked from killing. The will of Ruin is just too strong for a mortal to overcome.

"Life is never this kind, is it," Keldorn swore, exasperated. It had been a lovely thought while it lasted, with the prospect of someone having stopped the kill, or redirected it, in which case they'd've gotten a good lead out of it.

10 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

@Hoid Slayer "Keamen," Var said, "I understand your hesitance to vote, but we are in dire straights. We could be facing the end of the line here, if there are four Spiked. We need every vote we can get."

This was part of a discussion that Keldorn and Var had just had, privately.

The way Keldorn saw it, assuming six to four, which they really had to, there was no other alternative, splitting the accusations too far could expose them to the threat of a hammer. (This was besides considering if everyone would be present, which, given the voices in the market square thus far, Keldorn was beginning to doubt.) However, Keldorn had been balancing that in his head with the thought they also needed to discuss before talking about convergence: over-worrying about convergence prematurely (although it was now midday) could stifle their ability to find Spiked, or to identify them through the voting.

However, Keldorn had two considerations in his head which he held against worries of a hammer: first, he was not sure the Spiked could necessarily be around at sunset. As he recalled, on the first day, he, Madiane, Copper, and Var had been around at sunset, whereas yesterday, it had been Var, himself, and Jox. To be sure, the past was not necessarily a good reflection of the present. Keldorn wasn't sure about the schedules of everyone, but the only he he believed might not be present at sunset was Fox.

Second, he considered the likelihood a hammer would further expose the Spiked. 

Suppose they were six to four at present. A Villager executed at sunset meant they went into the night five to four. If the Village Lurcher once again failed to make a save (and given Teal had been a Village Coinshot, Keldorn did not remotely believe God could be this unkind, though if God was Araris Valerian, then Preservation save them all), and if any Village Mistborn there were had not acquired iron or pewter, then they they went into the final day at four to four.

But since ties did not kill, reaching four to four was sufficient. Unless any Village Mistborn acquired steel, they would be dead. There was just no way to stop a deadlock in the day, followed by death at night. It was a slightly risky path, but it still looked ugly as hell for Blackkeep, and Keldorn did not like their chances on this line of reasoning if the Spiked hammered.

(Was he missing something? He did not know. He hoped people in the market square would be able to identify gaps in his reasoning.)

It was do or die, now.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

This was part of a discussion that Keldorn and Var had just had, privately.

The way Keldorn saw it, assuming six to four, which they really had to, there was no other alternative, splitting the accusations too far could expose them to the threat of a hammer. (This was besides considering if everyone would be present, which, given the voices in the market square thus far, Keldorn was beginning to doubt.) However, Keldorn had been balancing that in his head with the thought they also needed to discuss before talking about convergence: over-worrying about convergence prematurely (although it was now midday) could stifle their ability to find Spiked, or to identify them through the voting.

However, Keldorn had two considerations in his head which he held against worries of a hammer: first, he was not sure the Spiked could necessarily be around at sunset. As he recalled, on the first day, he, Madiane, Copper, and Var had been around at sunset, whereas yesterday, it had been Var, himself, and Jox. To be sure, the past was not necessarily a good reflection of the present. Keldorn wasn't sure about the schedules of everyone, but the only he he believed might not be present at sunset was Fox.

Second, he considered the likelihood a hammer would further expose the Spiked. 

Suppose they were six to four at present. A Villager executed at sunset meant they went into the night five to four. If the Village Lurcher once again failed to make a save (and given Teal had been a Village Coinshot, Keldorn did not remotely believe God could be this unkind, though if God was Araris Valerian, then Preservation save them all), and if any Village Mistborn there were had not acquired iron or pewter, then they they went into the final day at four to four.

But since ties did not kill, reaching four to four was sufficient. Unless any Village Mistborn acquired steel, they would be dead. There was just no way to stop a deadlock in the day, followed by death at night. It was a slightly risky path, but it still looked ugly as hell for Blackkeep, and Keldorn did not like their chances on this line of reasoning if the Spiked hammered.

(Was he missing something? He did not know. He hoped people in the market square would be able to identify gaps in his reasoning.)

It was do or die, now.

"This was essentially the same thought process I had earlier in the day, as soon as I heard of Teal and Astrid's passing. If we assume the worst, which is the safest option for us, we have to execute a Spiked today. We cannot rely on the potential existence of a Thug, Lurcher, or a Mistborn who happens to find a vial of iron, pewter, or steel. I am not 100% sure Jox is the best option, but we still have a little less than half the day left to decide."

Var brought in as much air into his lungs as he could stand, and reached for the Gifts from the Spirit. His voice boomed out of him, reaching all over the town:

"Everyone, we need your help. Ideally, we all should vote on someone. The more we vote, the more we talk, the easier it shall be to find the Spiked. Come all, come all, you are our hope! @KaladinsSenseOfHumorSpren @KelsierApologist @TwinStorm @Hoid Slayer @ThatOneWorldhopper @Biplet"

 

[Kasimir he/him]

8 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Heh, quite funny that just as I was about to say that I could see a narrative being constructed nefariously on Jox by either Mil or Var or both, Jox turns on me. 

Keldorn wondered at this. Was Fox now implying he thought Jox was a Villager?

Edited to add:

3 hours ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

"Var, in our PM's, did try quite hard to get me to switch from Astrid to Lijal. He was sincere in believing that Lijal was the better target, but I refused to switch, because I knew that he would cave and switch to Astrid if I didn't, and Lijal was a friend I trusted. He didn't make those votes in the heat of the moment. He knew we needed an execution, and only switched to Astrid because he really thought that Lijal was out of his reach. I don't believe he was hiding or acting during that time.

This was kind of what was bothering Keldorn a little, in that he wondered if Fox was trying to suppress the positive reasons to regard Var as a villager. It was one thing to acknowledge reservations or caveats. But it seemed Fox regarded Var as one of his suspects?

The way Var and Jox tripped over each other at sunset yesterday probably indicated they weren't Spiked together as they seemed to genuinely have little idea of what each other was doing. He couldn't see a villager Jox making up reasons to village read Var, whereas surely a villager Var would call Spiked Jox out on a lie.

Why did Spiked Var particularly care about getting Lijal executed over Astrid? True, Keldorn's informants had known someone much like Var to have aggressively pushed to execute Villagers via private conversation. At the same time, Keldorn thought it just fit a picture on which Var sincerely believed Lijal was suspicious, which was something Fox should probably understand since he'd found Lijal suspicious for similar reasons. That he didn't was strange to Keldorn.

Edited to add 2:

"Ah, screw it," Keldorn muttered, and cast his vote for Fox.

Edited June 16, 2025 by Kasimir

[Kasimir he/him]

Tbh maybe I'm settling and I shouldn't settle at this point in the game.

Kéamen

Edited to add:

Keldorn wondered if he was settling and if he simply shouldn't be settling at this juncture.

He still felt that the kill choice was likely to indicate at least one Spiked in <Fox, Jox, Kéamen.> Of the three, Keldorn was the most wary of Kéamen and kept going to and fro on how he felt about Fox. He agreed with Fox about Jox's entry into the market square, but also wondered about how much credit to extend Jox for echoing his thoughts on Var. Meanwhile, Fox's take on Var was setting Keldorn's teeth on edge as Keldorn wondered if Fox was trying to set Var up.

Among <Lipitor, Antari, Josha, Madiane, Mil>, Keldorn distrusted Mil for what he believed to be an opportunistic vote on Var, and was reconsidering his thoughts on Madiane. He didn't like how Madiane had shown up to ask Var to convince her of his innocence but hadn't voted, which seemed to point to a disengagement with the results on a day with what Keldorn suspected was two Villagers standing on the hangman's scaffold. On the first read, Keldorn had seen Madiane's vote for Lijal as being more likely to come from a Villager, but now, wondered if Madiane had simply joined the bandwagon.

Relatively, Josha'd also what Keldorn considered to be fairly opportunistic votes. However, he'd extended Josha a little credit for asking Derrick about Jox's deemphasis on Derrick's list of suspects with a motive for killing Copper. He thought that had at least showed some engagement and attention, especially when Keldorn had missed it himself.

As far as Keldorn could tell, Lipitor and Antari just existed. He wanted to give Antari a few points for commitment, but Antari had shown up. Certainly if Antari was a Villager, Keldorn didn't want him found dead by Aral's guardsmen; at the same time, Antari's time and manner of arrival meant that commitment was not exculpatory. He would not be surprised if there were Spiked among their lurkers.

Edited June 16, 2025 by Kasimir
sorry Araris, was tired and forgot, I've fixed it

[|TJ| he/him]

8 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

A Soothing.

"That was me." 

I raise my hand, hoping to clear things up. Well, that makes it clear that Keamen could not have been the Spiked killer on both the nights. However, he could still be on the Spiked team without killing anyone. 

"I also Soothed Madiane on the first night."

If she had any allomantic powers, she should also be able to confirm this.

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

What are your thoughts on Var or Kéamen at this point? Why doesn't Var's behaviour on the first day sway you?"

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Keldorn wondered at this. Was Fox now implying he thought Jox was a Villager?

To be honest, Var was my strongest village read (which isn't saying much, sadly) at some point yesterday. But I really did not like his entrance today at all. His talking felt a bit too methodical and surgical. That, by itself, was not so bad but Mil joined Var in voting Jox, and it all had a feeling of "let's finish this off".

Conversely, I was suspecting (but giving leeway to) Jox yesterday, but it's Var's case and Mil's added accusation that gave me a pause and is making me rethink on Jox. 

Var's behaviour on the first day is what is holding me back from making a proper accusation. I think Var is someone who follows through his words, both as villager and Spiked. I could see Spiked Var voting on Lijal, poked by you to change his vote to avoid a tie, follows through to avoid the tie, once tie is no longer an option, follows through back on his suspicion. That being said, I do need to go back and check the transcripts again. Maybe I am missing something. 

I still want to trust Var, which is why I voted Mil over him. 

"Talk later."

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Why did Spiked Var particularly care about getting Lijal executed over Astrid? True, Keldorn's informants had known someone much like Var to have aggressively pushed to execute Villagers via private conversation. At the same time, Keldorn thought it just fit a picture on which Var sincerely believed Lijal was suspicious, which was something Fox should probably understand since he'd found Lijal suspicious for similar reasons. That he didn't was strange to Keldorn.

Like I said, the thing is, if he's Spiked, he is portraying that he was sincerely suspecting Lijal, but had to change his vote because of your poke. Would it not be suspicious if he did not follow through his suspicion once tie was no longer a possibility?

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Fox

[|TJ| he/him]

Quote

Jox (1): Copper Stopper
Fox (1): Lijal
Antari (1): John Derrick

On 6/14/2025 at 11:11 PM, StrikerEZ said:

He also suspected that the Spiked likely had one hidden amongst the people who had received votes that first day yet were still alive. So, one of [Fox, Jox, Antari] was likely Spiked.

"Why?"

I was trying to figure out how Var whittled down to choose his targets and I could not reason out why he thought there would HAVE to be a Spiked among players who received a vote by confirmed villagers. Especially as Var's whole analysis was dependent on this assumption, which seemingly was made for no reason. 

On 6/14/2025 at 11:11 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Once again, it is a village/village contest between the two leading trains with a single vote on a third party. I think, once again, the Spiked likely split themselves up. Those who voted for Derrick, those who voted for myself, and one amongst the non-voters [Lipitor, Antari, Madiane]. Assuming I am correct about their being a Spiked voter on myself, that means Mil is Spiked. Based on my analysis of the first day’s votes, Mil is Spiked in a world where Jox is also Spiked. And of the non-voters across the two days, I am picking Lipitor as my prime suspect. They made an appearance just to say nothing, likely to avoid punishment from Aral, and had a villager vote on them the second day, which would motivate the Spiked to vote for villagers just in other votes piled up on Lipitor. 

Var stood up, and went to the town square, where he summarized all his thoughts and notes to the best of his ability. When he was done, he added more of his thoughts:

”I had already suspected Mil a fair amount. I feel my analysis is reasonable, and can see how Jox’s behavior in that first day could have been with the intent of privately searching for allomancers dangerous to the Spiked’s cause. Which leaves me accusing Mil, Jox, and Lipitor as being Spiked. There is a chance there is a fourth wild card that I missed in my analysis, but I put forward the motion that we vote for one of my three suspects. My vote today shall be for Jox, as I feel his alignment would give us the most information.

Var is quite sure that Spiked have split votes which leads Var to conclude quite surely that Mil is Spiked. From his previously analysis, he links Spiked Mil with Spiked Jox (which is why I asked the basis for it). He then states he already suspects Mil quite a bit. 

But then he ends up voting for Jox as that would give more information? He clearly reached the conclusion that Mil is Spiked which then leads to Jox is Spiked. If so, then how does Jox's death give more information? Should it not be Mil's death first? 

"@Kasimir, @A Jo in the Bush, if Spiked Mil -> Spiked Jox, why does he want to kill Jox first?"

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

16 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

"@Kasimir, @A Jo in the Bush, if Spiked Mil -> Spiked Jox, why does he want to kill Jox first?"

"I had assumed it was because I'm more talkative, and have a wider spread of votes to analyze. Mil has voted on Lijal and Var, and I've voted on Fox, Astrid, and Derrick. I've just had more interactions, so more likely to lead to a connection. See below."

On 6/14/2025 at 3:11 PM, StrikerEZ said:

”I had already suspected Mil a fair amount. I feel my analysis is reasonable, and can see how Jox’s behavior in that first day could have been with the intent of privately searching for allomancers dangerous to the Spiked’s cause. Which leaves me accusing Mil, Jox, and Lipitor as being Spiked. There is a chance there is a fourth wild card that I missed in my analysis, but I put forward the motion that we vote for one of my three suspects. My vote today shall be for Jox, as I feel his alignment would give us the most information.

 

 

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

Fox

. . . "Could you explain why you're voting for Fox? I expect Fox to be evil, but, not gonna lie, that style of vote always comes across as really suspicious to me."

[Kasimir he/him]

On 6/15/2025 at 6:11 AM, StrikerEZ said:

Assuming I am correct about their being a Spiked voter on myself, that means Mil is Spiked. Based on my analysis of the first day’s votes, Mil is Spiked in a world where Jox is also Spiked.

On 6/15/2025 at 6:11 AM, StrikerEZ said:

My vote today shall be for Jox, as I feel his alignment would give us the most information.

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

"@Kasimir, @A Jo in the Bush, if Spiked Mil -> Spiked Jox, why does he want to kill Jox first?"

Keldorn disagreed with Fox's interpretation.

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

He clearly reached the conclusion that Mil is Spiked which then leads to Jox is Spiked.

Simply put, he felt that Var's analysis actually could be translated into the form of a conditional (helpful, he'd read a treatise by Kassel Erikell on the topic, once, although there was a sizeable amount of marginalia from Lord Pending.) 

To say that X is true in a world where Y is true, according to Erikell, was best translated as: if Y, then X. To say that Mil was Spiked in a world where Jox was also Spiked would be charitably translated in the vicinity of: if Jox were Spiked, then Mil is also Spiked, which made the logical order of precedence understandable to Keldorn.

He supposed you could argue that it was actually a biconditional of the form Mil is Spiked if and only if Jox is Spiked; however, he wasn't sure the biconditional held. (To say it was a biconditional was to say Var believed that Mil and Jox were either Spiked together or Villagers together. Perhaps this was true. Keldorn wasn't sure, and welcomed Var's clarification. @StrikerEZ)

1 hour ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

"I had assumed it was because I'm more talkative, and have a wider spread of votes to analyze. Mil has voted on Lijal and Var, and I've voted on Fox, Astrid, and Derrick. I've just had more interactions, so more likely to lead to a connection. See below."

However, Keldorn could not really deny Fox's take. He'd understood the direction of Var's implicature, but voting for informational value in a cycle Var had self-admittedly agreed was make-or-break for the Village, in a world where Var had independent evidence to consider Mil suspicious, just felt wrong. It also seemed to imply that Var'd stronger evidence for Mil's being suspicious but was choosing to pursue Jox despite that. That didn't really sit well with Keldorn.

2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Fox

Keldorn was concerned this was a retaliatory accusation, and that did not sit well with him when Var had already agreed this day was important.

On 6/15/2025 at 6:11 AM, StrikerEZ said:

[EDIT: @Araris Valerian I for some reason originally put my vote in green lol]

(Keldorn had privately wondered if this was a slip, but felt at this point that he was seeing shadows everywhere he looked in this damned keep.

Although he would be a little more scarce due to the need to visit Blackkeep's clinic later this day, he resolved to sleep on it and return to the investigation with a clearer mind, before he began to see Spiked lurking in each voice that spoke up.)

Edited to add:

Keldorn had begun to leave, but he paused, spun on his heel, and addressed Fox. "In case I wasn't clear, I think that it's an understandable mistake that people make a lot to go from logical order of implicature rather than evidential strength. I do think it's a mistake, but I don't feel it's something that's Spiked-indicative because I've seen enough people make this mistake over the years. And I'm not liking the retaliatory back-and-forth pushing here. It's not something I want to look at without a clearer mind at this juncture." @|TJ|

Edited to add 2:

He supposed he could make the point even clearer.

To go from asserting the truth of a conditional's consequent (Y) to asserting the truth of a conditional's antecedent (X) was fallacious reasoning: it was called 'affirming the consequent.' Fallacies weren't necessarily bad, but they did mean that the truth of the inference was not preserved; if you were right, you were lucky. In that sense, he could understand and was sympathetic to the idea of following the logical direction of inference.

...He just also kind of struggled to see why you would go with logical inference given relative evidential strengths.

Edited June 16, 2025 by Kasimir

[|TJ| he/him]

Let's forget about the logical inference for now and see the direction of reasoning Var takes. 

Step: 1 -> There are Spiked in [Fox, Jox, Antari]  because "currently alive players who also received a vote on day 1". Immediately discounts Antari for now. 

Step: 2 -> From step 1, he considers worlds where I am Spiked and worlds where Jox is Spiked separately. Reasoning for the below is, Spiked have split their vote on day 1 -  
                 If I am Spiked, my team voted on [opposite] Astrid train leading to [Fox, Keldorn/Keamen].
                If Jox is Spiked, his team voted on [opposite] Lijal train leading to [Jox, Madiane/Mil].

Step: 3 -> He believes Spiked have again split their votes between Derrick's train and his own on day 2 as he looks at day 2 votes.
                 From his train there's only Mil remaining alive, through which he deduces that Mil is Spiked. 

Step: 4 -> From step 2, he chooses the scenario in which Mil is present, which points towards Jox.

I say forget about logical inference because even though he says 'Mil is Spiked in a world where Jox is also Spiked', see the steps of reasoning he takes. He gets to Spiked Jox following the steps, obviously, but in the end, only because he gets to Spiked Mil. 

***

This is a big issue for me, but the bigger issue is step 1 itself, which is why I had asked Var his reasoning for the same. Claiming that there HAS to be a Spiked among the players voted on during day 1 did not make any sense, especially as it forms the basis for all the following steps. Like, there is no reason why that has to true. 

I wanted to wait till Var gave his reasoning for it, because I've began suspecting this is exactly the reason why Astrid was killed. Showing Astrid is village simultaneously absolves Var while also giving basis to form step 1 to narrow "alive players to have received a vote on day 1".

[StrikerEZ he/him]

“I am unsure what I have to explain for myself,” Var said. “I think my reasoning is sound. But I will attempt to walk through it again.

”On day one, two villagers were the main candidates for execution. With how many people voted for them, it is likely at least one of those players is Spiked. If one of those players is Spiked, they were likely voting on a villager to make sure a villager had more votes than one of their teammates. One of their teammates would be among the three other players that received votes that day. Perhaps I am making a lot of assumptions, but this logic seems sound to me.

”As for why I voted for Jox initially: because I felt like Jox has said more and his death would give us more information. And I think the relationship between Jox and Mil goes both ways, not just one way. If Jox is Spiked, Mil is Spiked. If Mil is Spiked, Jox is Spiked.

”The reason I switched to Fox is because it felt like he was reaching for reasons to accuse me when my logic has been sound. I am not saying it is perfect, as I cannot know for sure who the Spiked are, but I think it is sound. And Fox’s accusation felt like one a Spiked would make to throw shade onto me. This does mean that I am switching my secondary Spiked guess to one of Kéamen or Keldorn. And that would mean I’d pick Kéamen.”

[Biplet she/her]

13 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Among <Lipitor, Antari, Josha, Madiane, Mil>, Keldorn distrusted Mil for what he believed to be an opportunistic vote on Var, and was reconsidering his thoughts on Madiane. He didn't like how Madiane had shown up to ask Var to convince her of his innocence but hadn't voted, which seemed to point to a disengagement with the results on a day with what Keldorn suspected was two Villagers standing on the hangman's scaffold. On the first read, Keldorn had seen Madiane's vote for Lijal as being more likely to come from a Villager, but now, wondered if Madiane had simply joined the bandwagon.

"I, unfortunately, fell asleep and forgot to cast a vote."

This was very true and very unfortunate. To be quite blunt, Madiane was not very good at paying attention to things. Poor choice for a mayor, though she was trying her best with the wall now. Darn thing.

She'd taken to avoiding Var. Something about him didn't feel right, but she didn't truly trust herself to investigate properly. She'd probably muck it up, like everything else so far. She kept mixing up Jox and Fox, so she knew she was far from reliable.

For now, she would vote for Fox and see if that got her any information. Or clarity. Or anything that made this damned place make sense.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

1 hour ago, Biplet said:

She kept mixing up Jox and Fox

"I'm the one who tries to talk, and Fox is the one who thinks loud enough for everyone to hear somehow." Jox stuck out his tongue to show he was joking.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Roughly 2.5 hours left in the day!

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

Ashes! Nobody would give Antari a good rundown, and the sheer amount of records made it nigh impossible to read through everything before somebody died. Antari had just left the room when he came across Var giving his speech.

It seemed that everyone was here. He frowned. Who were the unresponsive men?

"I," he said loudly, clearly, and somewhat contemptuously, "have spent all of my time in this ashing town being beaten, sliced, broken, and in all ways tortured. I was then taken to a faceless hospital where I was watched in my sleep by some apparent abecedarians who are incapable of summarization! I like Var's reasoning. However, during my brief stint in the 'hospital,' I got a chance to read through a few of the town records. Lijal was village, but Var was pushing really hard to get them gone. Until someone convinces me otherwise, that's where my vote stays. On him."

Edited to add: As Antari was walking away to sit down ( he was still pretty banged up, he turned around. "A summary still would be nice."

Edited June 17, 2025 by ThatOneWorldhopper

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

Kéamen was utterly confused.

His life by this point was a muddled mess as he put together the politics at play in Blackkeep, and he wasn’t able to follow the discussion and analysis taking place between the other members of the village.

His mentor was arriving tonight, and yet Kéamen wasn’t ready in the slightest.

Kéamen was aware of how late it was to be commenting, and wanted to make a clarification for any who had doubts: he wasn’t taking a backseat presence willingly. Rather, there was simply so much other stuff going on in his life he couldn’t devote time to the mystery right now.

However, Kéamen had been pressured to vote, and as by now he realized the precarious solution the village would be in if they didn’t eliminate a Spiked, he would comply. He don’t have the time nor the will to go through his own analysis of possibilities, so he chose to trust Keldorn, who seemed experienced.

Keldorn proposed a Spiked between Jox, Fox, and Kéamen. As Kéamen naturally cleared himself, that left him to choose between Jox and Fox.

The current votes were as follows:

Mil: 1 (Fox)

Jox: 1 (Mil)

Fox: 3 (Var, Madiane, Jox)

Var: 1 (Antari)

Kéamen: 1 (Keldorn)

With that data, it seemed clear to Kéamen that Fox was dying today; one way or another, the fate of Blackkeep would be decided here. Honestly, Kéamen had no good read on Fox. He didn’t trust himself at all anymore, with his inability to focus.