Long Game 104: The Flame of Tar Valon

[Terrisman]

Terri was sitting in her study, knitting, when her Warder burst in. “British Racing was Black Ajah!! It’s been confirmed!! She was caught torturing one of the Green sisters with the One Power and she’s been run off!! The entire Tower is in an uproar!!”

Terri jerked upright. “Mother’s milk in a cup!! I knew there was something off with her. Her very name tipped me off. While it’s great that we’ve confirmed the existence of the Black Ajah, we now know that there’s definitely more Darkfriends in the Tower. We need to be on the lookout for the rest of them.” 
A glow surrounded her as she firmly took hold of the Source although it wasn’t visible to her Warder. 
“It is time I meet with my fellow Sitters. We of the Grey are the peacekeepers, the mediators. If anyone is cut out to untangle this mess it is us.” 
Thus protected, she marched out of her chambers, ready to further the fight.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Alrighty I just finished doing a reread of day one, and given the way the voting went I'm pretty certain everyone on the Kelsier vote other than maybe Ashbringer is village. Basically, in terms of final votes (which are the only ones I care about for this purpose) it went from initial vote (Wizard), to follow up vote(Terrisman), to first tie break (Gaea, they didn't read my post breaking that initial tie until after they had already voted so her vote was to them, a tie break) and then me (breaking the three way tie). Ashbringer is the only one who hypothetically could have just been train hopping to farm trust. I am also far, far more suspicious of everyone on the Kasimir train, as that seemed to be the primary actual countertrain (other than Drake, who's hard to analyze since... he didn't say anything). 

Edited March 24, 2025 by Steeldancer
fixing pronouns

[Aeternum]

Spoiler

 Nevermind, KelsierApologist was not in danger when Kas wagon took off, my memory is just bad lol.

Quote

Kasimir (2): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm
Mark IV (1): xxGaea
xxGaea (1): Sart
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
Drake Marshall (1): A Jo in the Bush

As of this post

Quote

Kasimir (3): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm, BridgeBoi
xxGaea (2): Sart, Terrisman
Mark IV (1): xxGaea
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
Drake Marshall (1): A Jo in the Bush

As of this post

Quote

Kasimir (4): The Wandering Wizard, TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, KelsierApologist
xxGaea (2): Sart, Terrisman
Mark IV (1): xxGaea
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
Drake Marshall (1): A Jo in the Bush
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

As of this post

Quote

Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, KelsierApologist
xxGaea (2): Sart, Terrisman
KelsierApologist (1): The Wandering Wizard
Mark IV (1): xxGaea
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
Drake Marshall (1): A Jo in the Bush
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

As of this post

Idt this is likely a bus here ftr. The turnaround wagon to KelsierApologist was likely pure early given that there is just no real reason to bus there imo.

Quote

Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, KelsierApologist
xxGaea (2): Sart, Terrisman
KelsierApologist (2): The Wandering Wizard, A Jo in the Bush
Mark IV (1): xxGaea
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

As of this post

Quote

Drake Marshall (2): Ashbringer, A Jo in the Bush
Kasimir (2): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi
KelsierApologist (2): Wandering Wizard, Terrisman
Mark IV (1): xxGaea
Aeternum (1): Kasimir
TwinStorm (1): Aeternum
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
xxGaea (1): Sart

As of this post

Quote

KelsierApologist (3): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, xxGaea
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
DrakeMarshall (3): Ashbringer, Joe, Steeldancer
xxGaea (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

As of this post

I suggest TUF dies for that vote, which was actually what I was looking for lol.

Quote

KelsierApologist (4): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, xxGaea, Steeldancer
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
DrakeMarshall (2): Ashbringer, Joe
xxGaea (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar

As of this post

Quote

KelsierApologist (5): The Wandering Wizard, Terrisman, xxGaea, Steeldancer, Ashbringer
Kasimir (3): TwinStorm, BridgeBoi, TUF
xxGaea (2): Sart, Kasimir
TwinStorm (2): Aeternum, Mark IV
Ashbringer (1): ThatOneWorldhopper
STINK (1): Teldris Anuar
DrakeMarshall (1): Joe

As of this post

^ yay VCs

29 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Not usually though Aet is right that it doesn't always translate to village wins  

There's probably at least two left would be my guess. I'll probably look back through posts but I'm not inclined to do heavy analysis rn  

Likely 3-4 left. I expect it was 4-5 originally, although 6 is not too wild here, it's just um. Hopefully not the case because I think 33% of the game being elims is potentially problematic given the way this setup works in my opinion, which is not the GM's opinion, so. It's possible.

I am currently at BridgeBoi / TwinStorm / TUF having at least one elim and that is my current PoE. Drake can be thrown into my extended PoE. Think Kas, Sart, The Wandering Wizard, and Terrisman are town. Everyone else shrugs.

I think this post from KelsierApologist is uh. A bit e/e with TwinStorm in my opinion because it is very theatre-y: "Twinstorm, stop trusting me. I don’t trust you and it’s making me feel bad" looks like blatant theatre.

Will say that my initial expectations of elims should've cared more given that an elim was in danger is maybe not always correct here, given I am used to chaotic EoDs where this would be a more obvious threadstate feeling vs here where elims may have just... not shown up (especially given that KelsierApologist doesn't show up to vote again, even though there was the self-pres on Kas that was available and within KelsierApologist's reads). Do think bussing is still very possible and I'm hesitant to clear too many people on the wagon for their votes rn.

Edit: irt e/e theatre with TwinStorm - it's also very theatre-y because e!KelsierApologist can just pocket v!TwinStorm there (although I'm not sure if I should be assuming KelsierApologist would be aware of this - it's just not really how I expect an elim to approach a townie in that situation, and is very out of place imo).

Edited March 24, 2025 by Aeternum
additional thought

[TwinStorm He/Him]

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

 I do feel its relevant to ask @TwinStorm, since you claimed to be in the same Ajah as Polly. What Ajah are you in, and was there anything of relevance in the document you'd be able to share?

dang

okay

wow, Polly being Black Ajah was not on my bingo card

I mean, I trusted her, and feel disappointed, but she told me not to trust her, and I suppose we did kill a Black Ajah

but still

it feels weird

I was counting on her as village

We were both Brown Ajah, and nothing really happened there accept for some Bee Movie discussion

Bridgeboi for Amrylin Seat. I can probably read him far better than any others since I know him in real life, and I trust him. 

[Terrisman]

5 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

dang

okay

wow, Polly being Black Ajah was not on my bingo card

I mean, I trusted her, and feel disappointed, but she told me not to trust her, and I suppose we did kill a Black Ajah

but still

it feels weird

I was counting on her as village

We were both Brown Ajah, and nothing really happened there accept for some Bee Movie discussion

Okay that definitely adds a little suspicion to @The Unknown Flame

Kasimir would you mind repeating what you found so suspicious with TUF?

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Aeternum said:

I am currently at BridgeBoi / TwinStorm / TUF having at least one elim and that is my current PoE. Drake can be thrown into my extended PoE. Think Kas, Sart, The Wandering Wizard, and Terrisman are town. Everyone else shrugs.

Off the cuff reaction as I'm busy rn: I feel like given TUF is the Brown Sitter, the entire Brown Ajah being Black Ajah is...possible but weird? Thinking probably one Elim in <Storm, TUF> and I'd rather see TUF Stilled and dead before Storm. His offness is way off the charts.

Feel there might be an incentive to bus for trust wrt getting a Sitter candidate trusted and not desposed due to the win con complexity. No time to check right now who it might affect.

Don't disagree on possibility of Drake pocket but trust myself to know the difference and to correct eventually. He usually just kills me early when we're V/E because we're too familiar with each other that it becomes very tiresome to fool each other for long. He tried killing me like four times the last round... Stymied a bit by the fact we're not Ajah-mates and thus lack a PM equivalent. 

[|TJ| he/him]

A reminded for the Sitters that you cannot vote for yourself. And to everyone, NO VOTE is a legitimate vote option. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Edited to add:

Terris—one of the things TUF is pretty good at is spotting V!me. He likes keeping V!me alive because I can be pretty useful and anyway the NK will hit me very early. For TUF to not remotely spot V!me in a game where I'm being insanely blatantly Village* (for my standards) is wild. Add this to his willingness to vote me and the fact I think (?) it was a vote meant to protect Polly passed off as a random vote. I don't ever recall him going totally random without some measure of outcome control so him doing it here is doubly wild. I also expected V!him to push back against my sus of him but defending it by claiming he does random votes is pretty subdued for him. He usually likes to claim at least one Elim is LHF pushing him etc and I don't see that kind of confidence here. If he doesn't think I'm Elim and thus isn't questioning my pushback, then why contentment with the vote given his preference to keep V!me alive?

Conversely, while V!TUF likes to keep me alive, E!TUF really loves to kill me off ASAP due to perceived threat which makes D1 stick out more. I also think there's some similarity of narrative between Polly and TUF in the way they tried to sus me although TUF has been less explicit—the same talking point mostly wrt my views of how he ended up Sitter and why he doesn't think it's weird his Ajah didn't question it.

 

*I'm known to hate playing Elim and to be relatively quiet and subdued as an Elim. This also means that when I enter a Village game right after an Elim one, which is what happened here, I just explode into loud excited activity...

Fml ninjaed by TJ bhai

Edited to add 2:

The same talking point bit is where I highlighted if Polly had made an Elim slip in one of my posts—basically it's weird both of them seemed to expect/implicitly assume I should know who is in their Ajah which might be them taking Elim Ajah knowledge for granted. Less sure on this precise point, need to reread when less rushed.

[|TJ| he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Fml ninjaed by TJ bhai

hehehe :P.

[Aeternum]

16 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

Bridgeboi for Amrylin Seat. I can probably read him far better than any others since I know him in real life, and I trust him. 

Ngl I find people who know others very well out of game struggle to read each other well. What makes you trust him?

Don't think we should elect Amrylin Seat here, and I do not trust anyone enough to elect right now. I'm a bit scared of Joe actively campaigning (and do not think "well an elim wouldn't do that/draw attention to themself like that" applies here given that they win iirc? if an elim is elected in and survives getting deposed or something like that. So it's very pro-wincon for them). No Vote 

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Off the cuff reaction as I'm busy rn: I feel like given TUF is the Brown Sitter, the entire Brown Ajah being Black Ajah is...possible but weird? Thinking probably one Elim in <Storm, TUF> and I'd rather see TUF Stilled and dead before Storm. His offness is way off the charts.

Feel there might be an incentive to bus for trust wrt getting a Sitter candidate trusted and not desposed due to the win con complexity. No time to check right now who it might affect.

Don't disagree on possibility of Drake pocket but trust myself to know the difference and to correct eventually. He usually just kills me early when we're V/E because we're too familiar with each other that it becomes very tiresome to fool each other for long. He tried killing me like four times the last round... Stymied a bit by the fact we're not Ajah-mates and thus lack a PM equivalent. 

Fine with that (I have no idea how the Still stuff works).

I do think TwinStorm is Just An Elim very strongly rn but agree with you on TUF and think he is likely an elim. Would reconsider TwinStorm if e!TUF off of how likely an entire Ajah being elims would be. I'm currently liking my Ajah friends and have been considering if my Ajah team is pure, which would raise the chances of that a bit more, I suppose. To me it is kind of weird to put three elims in an Ajah with a separate doc together (like... they're already in a doc together anyways lol, I've never seen that before - usually 1-2 elims + 1-3 town in a 3 person group), but it would be funny if true.

A BridgeBoi / TwinStorm pairing is looking really nice right now though, smh.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Aeternum said:

Fine with that (I have no idea how the Still stuff works).

As long as there is no Amrylin maj, Sitter with lowest votes gets Stilled. Because of that, would suggest we are deliberate about spreading votes to ensure TUF is Stilled while preventing any candidate from attaining maj.

@|TJ| What's the maj number or did I miss it while speedreading?

[TwinStorm He/Him]

1 minute ago, Aeternum said:

Ngl I find people who know others very well out of game struggle to read each other well. What makes you trust him?

Don't think we should elect Amrylin Seat here, and I do not trust anyone enough to elect right now. I'm a bit scared of Joe actively campaigning (and do not think "well an elim wouldn't do that/draw attention to themself like that" applies here given that they win iirc? if an elim is elected in and survives getting deposed or something like that. So it's very pro-wincon for them). No Vote 

Fine with that (I have no idea how the Still stuff works).

I do think TwinStorm is Just An Elim very strongly rn but agree with you on TUF and think he is likely an elim. Would reconsider TwinStorm if e!TUF off of how likely an entire Ajah being elims would be. I'm currently liking my Ajah friends and have been considering if my Ajah team is pure, which would raise the chances of that a bit more, I suppose. To me it is kind of weird to put three elims in an Ajah with a separate doc together (like... they're already in a doc together anyways lol, I've never seen that before - usually 1-2 elims + 1-3 town in a 3 person group), but it would be funny if true.

A BridgeBoi / TwinStorm pairing is looking really nice right now though, smh.

hmmm

really?

well, he seems genuine, and he didn't want the nomination, just wanted to kinda hang out, so I don't think he is elim, since they'll likely try to push as many e!sitters as possible

[Through the Living Hopper He/Him]

I'm going with you: I don't want an Amrylin seat just yet. No Vote.

I was a little confused by Polly's comment here, was that just misdirection? Why wouldn't she trust Twinstorm?

Edited March 24, 2025 by ThatOneWorldhopper
Clarification

[|TJ| he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

@|TJ| What's the maj number or did I miss it while speedreading?

2 hours ago, |TJ| said:

No. of Votes Required to Raise an Amyrlin Seat - 9/17

[Aeternum]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

As long as there is no Amrylin maj, Sitter with lowest votes gets Stilled. Because of that, would suggest we are deliberate about spreading votes to ensure TUF is Stilled while preventing any candidate from attaining maj.

@|TJ| What's the maj number or did I miss it while speedreading?

9 votes are required for Amyrlin Seat.

Well, if anyone makes a plan, let me know who to vote to get the right person Stilled

4 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

hmmm

really?

well, he seems genuine, and he didn't want the nomination, just wanted to kinda hang out, so I don't think he is elim, since they'll likely try to push as many e!sitters as possible

I generally find it's true. Why does he seem genuine to you? What about that makes him town?

Why do you want an Amrylin Seat here?

1 minute ago, ThatOneWorldhopper said:

I'm going with you: I don't want an Amrylin seat just yet. No Vote.

I was a little confused by Polly's comment here, was that just misdirection? Why wouldn't she trust Twinstorm?

I read it as e/e theatre.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

No. of Votes Required to Raise an Amyrlin Seat - 9/17

Ty bhai! Please rest and recover well.

Oh, how're you feeling?

Jo

I don't want him reaching maj but I don't want him Stilled either.

[TwinStorm He/Him]

1 minute ago, Aeternum said:

9 votes are required for Amyrlin Seat.

Well, if anyone makes a plan, let me know who to vote to get the right person Stilled

I generally find it's true. Why does he seem genuine to you? What about that makes him town?

Why do you want an Amrylin Seat here?

I read it as e/e theatre.

don't want him Amyrlin but don't want him stilled either

I trust him

I don't know exactly why, just a gut thing, and he hasn't done anything suspicious in any way

[Kasimir he/him]

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

9 votes are required for Amyrlin Seat.

Well, if anyone makes a plan, let me know who to vote to get the right person Stilled

If @A Jo in the Bush can confirm the Yellow Ajah is holstering tonight then pretty straight forward. 17 players, put three votes on each Sitter except TUF. TUF gets Stilled because no maj. Suggest three votes so someone can't go rogue and just hammer on TUF. 3x5 = 15 so two people don't vote here.

I guess the main issue is if Brown doesn't holster because they can use the Ajah ability to protect TUF here, judging from Storm's TUF take. That one we can't do anything about except to force them to burn that ability. Ideally Brown holsters because it's not good for Village if they shield TUF. Green should not smite TUF tonight because Brown cancels that out.

[Aeternum]

Will vote Terrisman then.

Also claiming that Mark and I are Ajah buddies

[Kasimir he/him]

EDIT2:

Probably put BridgeBoi at 2 votes unless there's a more suspected Sitter—Blue Ajah immunity can eat one Still I think? Depends on whether Brown triggering their ability means the next lowest is Stilled or not. @|TJ|?

[|TJ| he/him]

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Oh, how're you feeling?

Sigh, still recovering >>

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Depends on whether Brown triggering their ability means the next lowest is Stilled or not. @|TJ|?

Yes, the next lowest is Stilled. 

[Terrisman]

41 minutes ago, TwinStorm said:

hmmm

really?

well, he seems genuine, and he didn't want the nomination, just wanted to kinda hang out, so I don't think he is elim, since they'll likely try to push as many e!sitters as possible

It doesn’t seem like that is true from everyone’s description of the nominations. It seems like there wasn’t a real sitter push at all

21 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

EDIT2:

Probably put BridgeBoi at 2 votes unless there's a more suspected Sitter—Blue Ajah immunity can eat one Still I think? Depends on whether Brown triggering their ability means the next lowest is Stilled or not. @|TJ|?

Are you not concerned that BridgeBoi essentially needs 2 stillings? Shouldn’t we try to use up his ability tonight which still would allow us to target TUF as long as he gets no other votes either and everyone else has some

I’m just going to throw this out there. I don’t have a well reasoned idea why, but I still get really elim vibes from Steel. I know he voted on Polly but it seemed obvious at that point that the vote on Kas wouldn’t work and momentum to Polly was building so he may have just got in early

[Mark IV he/him]

48 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Jo

I don't want him reaching maj but I don't want him Stilled either.

I'm gonna be voting for A Jo in the Bush too.

The orderly thing to do would be to have everyone vote for their own Ajah sitters, I guess? Except TUN.

Oh, nvm, that would involve mass claiming Ajah colours. Oops. That means I get to keep my Jo vote

 

1 hour ago, TwinStorm said:

We were both Brown Ajah, and nothing really happened there accept for some Bee Movie discussion

Surprisingly in character for Brown Ajah XD

 

Also, wow, wasn't expecting we'd catch one on the first day. I guess I'd just be echoing other people at this point, but yeah, that lynch was kinda easy except for the Kas train and that's where I'll be looking for countertrain efforts too. Aeternum's vote count summary makes sense to me, but I'll look into it myself later today too. 

I'm up for making sure TUN is stilled today.  

37 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

EDIT2:

Probably put BridgeBoi at 2 votes unless there's a more suspected Sitter—Blue Ajah immunity can eat one Still I think? Depends on whether Brown triggering their ability means the next lowest is Stilled or not. @|TJ|?

Kinda lost - what does putting BB at two votes accomplish?

On a side note, wasn't there someone else who we used to called BB? BalloonBoy or someone?

[Kasimir he/him]

24 minutes ago, Terrisman said:

Are you not concerned that BridgeBoi essentially needs 2 stillings? Shouldn’t we try to use up his ability tonight which still would allow us to target TUF as long as he gets no other votes either and everyone else has some

Why would it allow us to target TUF? Only one Stilling a Night. If both of them have lowest votes, it's a coinflip. And no I'm not concerned because he's not my lead suspect and I want my lead suspect sorted first. I don't buy precautionary Stillings.

9 minutes ago, Mark IV said:

Kinda lost - what does putting BB at two votes accomplish?

On a side note, wasn't there someone else who we used to called BB? BalloonBoy or someone?

BridgeBoy Very helpful.

The two votes is in the world Brown Ajah is unhelpful. Their Ajah ability prevents a target from being elected or Stilled when used. I don't want a situation where TUF and Storm use it (given Storm's posts defending TUF) and then because TUF is immune to Stilling today, it rands among the other Sitters, all at 3 votes each, for Stilling.

I think we very much should control the Sitter pool and this means being deliberate about who gets Stilled if Brown is uncooperative. And if Brown really uses their ability, then that's info for us too because they've chosen to deliberately burn Village tempo. 

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Ok, annoying that I cannot vote for myself.

I'mma be real with y'all, No Voting is a bad idea. I will try to lay this out as thoroughly as possible.

Currently, there is no probable universe in which any of the Six Sitters reach a 9 vote majority, especially if we cannot vote on ourself, that is fine and good. But one of the six of us will be removed from the running tonight. Currently, I have votes, so it will not be me. It will be randomly decided between the sitters who get no votes. This means, that if you are suspicious of 3 of the sitters, and not suspicious of 3 of them, you should vote for the ones you aren't suspicious of, in order to get one of the suspicious ones Stilled. That removes them from the running, so they will never be able to become the Amyrlin Seat. Choosing to not vote does not actually decrease the odds of an Elevation happening tonight, because the odds are already infinitesimal. Choosing to not vote simply increases the odds that a Village Sitter gets stilled, which gets the Black Ajah one step closer to victory.

You do not need to vote on me. I'm not asking you to vote on me. There are already 3 people (Kas, Mark, Gaea) who have said they are going to vote on me. Frankly, if any Sitter does get more than 3 votes tonight, you should look closely at that Sitter and their voters. But if there is a Sitter that you are NOT suspicious of, AND they have less than 3 votes, you should vote on them to protect them.

I am currently placing my vote on Sart. I don't particularly trust Sart, nor do I want him to become the Amyrlin, but I'm trying to get TUF, BridgeBoi, or Steeldancer Stilled tonight, because I trust those three the least among the Sitters. In my ideal world, BB would get no votes tonight, and TUF would get 1, so that BB loses his extra-protection, and TUF is taken out of the running.

Jo - Yellow - (2): Kasimir, Mark IV,
TUF- Brown - ()
Sart - Green - (1): Jo
Terrisman - Grey - (1): Aetunum
BridgeBoi - Blue - (1): TwinStorm
Steeldancer - White - ()

No Vote: (1): @ThatOneWorldhopper, may I ask you to Change your vote to Steeldancer? If you are suspicious of TUF, and that will help get TUF stilled.

@Kasimir I will absolutely confirm that I will not allow the Yellow Ajah to protect anyone tonight.

Edited March 24, 2025 by A Jo in the Bush