Who will become the first triple shard?

[Atlas333]

WaT gave us our second dual shard (third if you count the Dor). While this is another massive change to the status quo I can't help but wonder about the future. Will we ever see a triple shard? What shards will be part of it? Obviously, the easiest method would be to just add another shard to our current dual shards.

So, just for fun, place your bets. Which shard will become our first triple shard and what combination will they be?

I think the most likely triple shard combos would be

Retribution + Cultivation = Conquest

Harmony + Autonomy= Solitude

The Dor + ??? = ???

I'm still working on my own predictions but wanted to see what others thought.

[Treamayne]

While I would guess it is possible that Harmony may find a way to add a third Shard - I think it is below a 1% chance for that third Shard to be Autonomy.

With Sazed's focus on technological innovation on Scadrial, I would hope it will be Invention. 

[AlmightyGir]

I think it will be Big T, and I think he will achieve it by taking one of the other shards that he's splintered and put into the Cognitive realm.

But I also think it will backfire on him in some way, and make him overall less effective.

[RedBlue]

This is wild and baseless speculation … but

If there is one Shard that cannot be held in conjunction with another Shard, it’s Autonomy. It might just say ‘nope’ and resist being combined because of its Intent.

Retribution is more likely to have an opportunity to grab an extra Shard than Harmony.

[The Stick]

There is a specific WoB which says that powers of Honor and Odium actually attract each other, which implies some shards naturally attract and repel each other. I think, as stated above, it would be almost impossible to merge Autonomy. I would say that in theory, Dominion would be very attracted to Honor, but that is not really possible, since it is in the Dor. I would say that a Valor-Harmony merge is my favorite.

[The Splinter of Ambition He/Him]

First post/theory so please don't hate: I think that the first triple shard is gonna be Harmony, as I see Whimsy gallivanting around and some way Saze is going to take the Shard and become Discord due to the unpredictable nature of Whimsy combined with the conflicting natures of Preservation and Ruin. 

[Steel Speedster ♂]

Considering that the Elantris sequels are coming up soon, I actually wouldn’t be surprised if something happens with the Dor. I would certainly expect something highly Cosmere-relevant to occur. It could be as simple as Dominion and Devotion being repaired and becoming the third double-Shard, or a third Shard could arrive on Sel and combine with them. The question is, which Shard could it be?

[alder24]

Well, both Era 2 and SA 5-10 will happen at more or less the same time so it's quite possible both Retribution and Harmony will become a triple Shard simultaneously. However, I think Taravangian will do it faster as he's actively pursuing this goal, while Sazed is content with what he already has. I think Sazed will change into Discord than into something more stable, that fully merges Preservation and Ruin under a new Shard that's not about balance or imbalance (like Creation or something like this).

[Atlas333]

15 hours ago, RedBlue said:

If there is one Shard that cannot be held in conjunction with another Shard, it’s Autonomy. It might just say ‘nope’ and resist being combined because of its Intent.

That's totally fair. Autonomy is weird to me because its magic systems are about exercising control over another being (sand mastery, aviars) so I could see it taking control of harmony and not having its intent diluted too much because the halves of harmony are locked in a stalemate leaving Autonomy to do its thing but now with more power.

14 hours ago, The Sliver of Ambition said:

First post/theory so please don't hate: I think that the first triple shard is gonna be Harmony, as I see Whimsy gallivanting around and some way Saze is going to take the Shard and become Discord due to the unpredictable nature of Whimsy combined with the conflicting natures of Preservation and Ruin. 

I forgot to take Discord into account because you're right that's definitely going to happen. Good point.

 

Also, the elantris sequals are also a good thing to take into account. I wonder if Retribution would try to pick up on the Dor now that he doesn't care about losing his intent.

Edited February 25, 2025 by Atlas333

[Returned he/him]

I was originally going to say the Dor, as the splintered nature of the Shards seems like a good avenue for them to recombine in ways that they might not if they were in their normal states. It seems to me that none of the Shards are going to be all that interested in changing their fundamental natures via fusion with others, since they are all expressions of single sets of ideas.

But Harmony seems like the best bet. Sazed's issue is that he isn't balancing his Shards very well and the problems that causes seem to be accruing to his detriment. Certainly he could learn to deal with that in other ways but adding another Shard seems like it might offer unique possibilities to break the stalemate between Preservation and Ruin, and triangulating against the opposition those two Shards have to each other might be the best and most stable way to handle things.

No idea which Shard he would take up to do that, though. I agree with other posters that Autonomy seems like an odd fit to blend with any other Shards, but at the same time freedom to act as he wishes is something which seems like it would appeal greatly to Sazed since that is exactly what the balance between Preservation and Ruin makes so difficult. I'm not sure how I feel about Shards generally being open to blending with one another (as above, it seems like they should mostly all oppose it absent a specific will and intent to combine in a holistic way). So while Autonomy seems like it should be the worst I'm not sure it would be materially less capable of merging with another. I could be convinced away from that, though.

[JohnnyKaizen he/him]

If Tarvangian keeps going on the line of thinking that he was at the end of WaT, I'd assume he'd want Dominion, and possibly others. He could jump to 4+ Shards if he thinks that it will help him "save them all."

[CognitiveShadow he/him]

Follow up question - which will be the first of the original 16 shards to get split into two different ones??

[JohnnyKaizen he/him]

6 minutes ago, CognitiveShadow said:

Follow up question - which will be the first of the original 16 shards to get split into two different ones??

I would assume, based on the info we have, that doing so would require one or more (possibly all 4) Dawnshards. If it can be accomplished with less than 4 (most conveniently 1, even if that meant the "right" 1) then clearly not Harmony or Retribution. There are several Shards in hiding. There are those that have been "destroyed" and (probably) not sapient enough to do anything about it, and there's Shards with Vessels, and I can't think of any that wouldn't have "Don't get re-shattered" way up high on their priorities list.

So of those, I guess Devotion, Dominion, and Ambition as the most possible atm. And if any of the others are in such a state that someone, or a group of someones, could take a Dawnshard (or all of them) to do the deed, then they'd be on that list too.

[AlmightyGir]

On 2/24/2025 at 11:57 PM, The Stick said:

There is a specific WoB which says that powers of Honor and Odium actually attract each other, which implies some shards naturally attract and repel each other. I think, as stated above, it would be almost impossible to merge Autonomy. I would say that in theory, Dominion would be very attracted to Honor, but that is not really possible, since it is in the Dor. I would say that a Valor-Harmony merge is my favorite.

The idea that Autonomy wouldn't work with any other Shard is strange to me... Dominion would be a very good fit for Autonomy to merge with, conceptually and thematically. Harmony might even be a good fit for Autonomy in a lot of ways, balanced self-sufficiency and all that. BUT, Autonomys actions in the cosmere thus far are not what I would call self-sufficient, in fact some of the actions feel like a departure from the idea of Autonomy (as a word that we have a definition for, anyway) in some ways. Autonomy is pushing for conquest on their own terms, at the moment.

[Nitpicking]

2 hours ago, CognitiveShadow said:

Follow up question - which will be the first of the original 16 shards to get split into two different ones??

Several shards have already been Splintered (Dominion, Devotion, Ambition, maybe Virtuosity [but we don't know if that has happened by WaT]), but into more than two pieces. It would require some kind of god-scalpel to make a clean cut like that.

[CognitiveShadow he/him]

14 hours ago, Nitpicking said:

Several shards have already been Splintered (Dominion, Devotion, Ambition, maybe Virtuosity [but we don't know if that has happened by WaT]), but into more than two pieces. It would require some kind of god-scalpel to make a clean cut like that.

I'm aware - I was not referring to splintering the shards but splitting them into two usable shards that can be held by two different vessels. I realize that would likely require using dawnshards or some other process we don't know about.

The post just made me think in the other direction: if a shard were to be divided into two different ones, which shard might be most likely to (excluding the ones that have already merged two of the original 16)?

Is that more clear? Same question as the original post here but reversed. Just a for funsies, unserious inquiry

[Qianweilian He/him]

39 minutes ago, CognitiveShadow said:

if a shard were to be divided into two different ones, which shard might be most likely to

Autonomy. It's arguably already doing that, but the intent of the shard seems most likely to split itself.

[JohnnyKaizen he/him]

2 minutes ago, Qianweilian said:

Autonomy. It's arguably already doing that

It is? Because of all the avatars? Am I missing something else? I would be excited if that's the case, but I hadn't thought that was happening.

[Qianweilian He/him]

Because of all the avatars. I exaggerated a bit, but the power is clearly having sections become more autonomous than others.

[Earless Jaks he/him]

I agree that if autonomy had a powerful enough avatar that it might have a higher chance of splitting into two main bodies of power or shards. 

I also had another idea on this strain of thought. A portion of the power of Honor was syphoned by Syl away during the formation of Retribution so the new Oathpact could be formed and protected. I'm not sure how much power she took, but if it was more than the Stormfather's power, who was able to contend with a Shard for a short time, she might be on the level of a powerful enough avatar to fully split from the power of Honor into another Shard in the future.

This kind of event would definitely need to involve one or more Dawnshards or another Shard to make it happen. Maybe a very skilled Shard would be able to make a clean cut between Syl and the Honor in Retribution.

Edited March 1, 2025 by Earless Jaks

[Atlas333]

On 2/27/2025 at 2:41 PM, CognitiveShadow said:

Follow up question - which will be the first of the original 16 shards to get split into two different ones??

I'd argue it'll be ambition. The Evil could be the manifestation of one "half shard" with the other half being elsewhere. Not sure what attributes ambition would split into. Maybe greed and determination?

[Ripheus23]

On 2/24/2025 at 12:29 PM, AlmightyGir said:

I think it will be Big T, and I think he will achieve it by taking one of the other shards that he's splintered and put into the Cognitive realm.

But I also think it will backfire on him in some way, and make him overall less effective.

Yeah, part of my thinks it'd be creepy-cool for him to absorb Dominion (by splicing it out of the Dor somehow) and Ambition, thereby allowing him to become Damnation 

[BridgeBoi]

Kelsier kills Sazed and Bavadin - and takes Ruin, Preservation, and Autonomy, becoming Survival. 

[Trusk'our he/him]

You know, Sazed- the Vessel, not the actual Shard- I think would fit Autonomy's Intent very well. Maybe even better than Bavadin, which could secretly be part of the reason she wants him gone in particular. 

He wants people to have the freedom to choose, to have their own agency even if he disagrees with their personal actions. That feels like a more legitimate interpretation of Autonomy than Bavadin's, though I suppose this is subjective.

Anyway, I'm not sure he'll become a true triple Shard, but I suspect he'll at least grab some of Autonomy through an Avatar of hers since she spreads them like weeds. That could make Harmony into a more stable version of Discord, perhaps. One that could pose a legitimate threat to Retribution in Era 4.

Speaking of which, Taravangian actually seems the most likely to grab more power given his mindset. He loved the merger of Honor and Odium, dismissing Rayse's concerns. 

He might have to take his time and be sneaky due to the other Shards' attention now, but I think it unlikely he wouldn't seek more to add to his collection.

[Eliana Keylocke she/her]

On 3/3/2025 at 2:43 PM, BridgeBoi said:

Kelsier kills Sazed and Bavadin - and takes Ruin, Preservation, and Autonomy, becoming Survival. 

I don't know if Kelsier would try to take Harmony's shards, because he's seen the inability that comes with it and is misaligned with Preservation. However, I do think he would be a good fit for Autonomy. If he managed to kill Bavadin and take that Shard, he would also have a chance to get off-world like he's been wanting to. If he could somehow manage to defeat Taravangian, the concept of Retribution would also fit him quite well. I'm not sure what the Autonomy/Retribution combo would be called... something implying vengeance and individualism?