QF71: Cycle Three: p a c i f i s m

[Cash67 he/him]

21 hours ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

Interesting. 

Don't you just love when you build a shiny new tunnel out of conf bias, then it all comes crashing down?

I think I'm looking at Aet, Spark, Wierdo here? Maybe RBM. That's with credences. I could be pretty easily convinced on Cash. Man, I could honestly exe anyone here at this point.

 

3 hours ago, Wierdo said:

Well, I can't shake the cash thing, since he just voted me out of the blue at the beginning, I think it may have started a grudge for me lol, but he has been seeming a bit suspicious from what i've read.
Honestly, this is it so far *shrug*

Frankly, fair. The grudge thing has hit me too. You’re V leaning well for me. 

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add:

Raven is obvious, could I ask you to spell out why me a little?

@Aeternum

Wrt the Bee-Raven exchange, AFAICT:

About 4.5 hours to EoD C2, Raven mentions getting a PM from Bee. Raven comments about insinuating he had a message from the HP and being suspicious because the last time Bee PMed him, Bee was Evil (note that it was just kind of impossible for V!Bee to PM Raven in QF70.) 

Raven later notes he is confused about Bee saying pretty much everyone else wants to PM Raven.

At that time, Archer's reaction is that he's interested in why Bee is PMing so late in the cycle, especially with Bee facing early pressure. My response is that since Raven can't c/p, Raven has to make the judgement call for himself about phishiness because it's kind of hard to when working (in the PM) off Raven's reporting and we can't see the original exchange.

I ask Raven this cycle if he had received any claims/scans, given the paucity of PMs last cycle. Raven confirms the situation hasn't changed and his PMs are with me, Aet, and Bee. I ask Raven if he thinks it's plausible that Village players are the ones who hung back more wrt willingness to spend their one PM on Raven. Raven's reaction is that he's not sure but he feels Bee has been pressing him pretty directly on what the HP has been sharing with him.

My thoughts on this issue:

-I'm approaching this more from an outlier perspective: by and large, most Village players seem to have been conservative with PMs. I say this because exactly three players PMed Raven, and in fact, I myself didn't initiate the Raven PM I'm in. So I'm curious about whether:

A. The Elims delegated one member to PM Raven
B. PMing Raven should be V!indicative or not.

I'm not sure there's a definite valence to scan curiosity in light of Raven dropping HP hints, but honestly to some extent this is a "do I trust Raven's judgement that it seemed phishy" or not sort of deal. But it's worth dropping now to discuss, and I arguably held this back a bit too long I guess.

Edited to add 2:

What is the info you believe we have gained, and how does it inform your position this cycle?

To be clear, this is directly a "if you are V I don't wanna ML you" ask at this point.

Well first last cycle we gotta look at who started harping on Archer. Pulling up quotes:

TUA hopped on archer pretty early on in C2 for not catching/responding to a post and archer responded by citing TUA’s presence as reason to believe that he may have timed a quick kill switch. 

After a bit, TUA doubled down on Archer, saying pressuring based on timezones is a strange reason. I happen to slightly agree. Put the pressure on, just make sure to read the result and that your final reasoning ain’t time zones. However, the way this was defended seems a bit… quick. Basically I see it as making Archer’s claims seem forced. 
 

Tbis also has a vote on archer that I believe doesn’t move for the rest of the cycle? Double checking that. 
 

Archer brings up points that state regardless of time zone, when people are in is important to pay attention to. His post seems more thought out and towny because he is focused on seeing the reactions of other people, not just applying pressure and then waiting. 
 

The day goes on, and Aet gets voted on by Archer, and true  his earlier post, he observes Spark’s reaction with Aets nonchalance and unvotes accordingly. 

 

After this the thread is mainly about scaring Aeo, not getting sleep, and I get namedropped (yay!) as a potential elim (aw…) by Kas and TUA (huh.)

 

All of this makes me distrust TUA more than any other player here. I can see a quiet elim play style. My vote is gonna go on them, and I’ll go and see who they were supporting. 

[Aeternum they, he]

5 minutes ago, Wierdo said:

You seem safe, but i don't know if my gut is right- so- maybe town? maybe elim? but last second- hm. i guess elim because you might be luring me into a false sense of security.

Completely fair, and I'd probably agree if I were to gth read myself objectively. Is the term powerwolfing correct for smth like this? (I'm not powerwolfing I promise lol). not me being sus on myself once again

Now the mean thing I'd ask is the difference between me and Kas, which there is a LOT of (Kas is way more of a TR than I probably am lol).

But you get a smiley face:  

4 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

All of this makes me distrust TUA more than any other player here. I can see a quiet elim play style. My vote is gonna go on them, and I’ll go and see who they were supporting.

Got anything to say about my vote on Archer, out of curiosity? Since you're talking about ppl who were on Archer

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@Cash67 Hey a question occurred to me. If you were V leaning Archer even mildly, why didn't you voice any reservations to the Archer train?

EDIT: @The Unknown Ajah Aet views? Also can you please explain the reasoning behind your team guesses you listed with Cash

@Aeternum What is your current E team guess

@RoyalBeeMage Same as the others

Anyone else feel free to do without needing an @ from me

I mostly process of eliminationed them, and used some vote analysis. Kinda just what felt right with some hard to explain logic backing it up.

3 hours ago, Aeternum said:

RBM/Weirdo/Weaver maybe? But that suggests a very newbie team. RBM/Cash/Weaver as secondary. Could throw TUA in there and I wouldn't disagree, but that is based off of your reads of TUA because some of us are bad at reading TUA. I trust your TUA reads because you've got far more experience there.

I can't say anything about Quivil yet, which is unfortunate but a /shrug.

At least 1 wolf in RBM/Weirdo/Cash/Weaver. Don't remember if there was anything about a RBM/Weaver pairing, but I'm tempted to put them on the elim team together in my head.

Weaver looks like e!me with the lurking, I've seen them around several times now. I'm not a big fan of RBM's posting so far. Weirdo hasn't been around much (understandably busy with classes) - I did see Weirdo online a few times tho, but I'll write it off. Since he's here, @RoyalBeeMage I need more thoughts from you. Don't want to ML today, but Weaver/RBM is my priority probably. Aet stop screwing up your votes lol

I mean, if anyone can read me, it's probably Kas, but he's not exactly consistently right. Just more right than most people.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add:

Some additional thoughts for everyone to chew on.

-I'm actually personally concerned I'm One Thinging Cash. This is the one thing (lol) that gives me pause, particularly in light of significant Cash ML history in his SE play.

-I feel E!TUA has a history of opportunism and I'm concerned TUA is being opportunistic here. That being said, there's one thing E!him did that sets off personal alarm bells that hasn't emerged this time (yet.)

-I just generally have Aet concerns.

-I think it is worth putting this on the table, and that's that Bee and Aet had weird PMs with Raven, with Bee seeming to phish Raven for HP info (!) I think this is worth noting in a landscape where PMing/contacting Raven was the exception among players and not the rule, and it makes me question whether Elims: A. chose to only have one member contact Raven (thinking of the Aet/Bee not E/E deal) and B. whether therefore engagement with Raven is noteworthy seeing as it is generally not done and majority of players should have been Village.

Edited to add:

Crossed slightly back to V!Bee, but not in a definitive way. Bee's still overall in null territory for me.

Minimally I was going to cite Bee's exchange with Neil and Stick in QF70b as being more solving indicative but honestly when I re-read those posts, I found Bee was just as prone to giving random reasons for votes, going on to issue gut reads under pressure. The random reasons bit doesn't seem too different from the Archer vote reason Bee offered. There's the bandwagoning element in the LG but QF!Bee at one point sheeped my vote and at another point, voted Neil (IIRC, could've been another player) just so Stick would stop yelling at everyone to vote Neil.

Is it really opportunitism when you mention distrust of two people, who then both become trains way later? I'll give you Cash, though. I see how that could come across.

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Hmm. Actually. The three cycle rule suggests that if you don't see anything overtly V from TUA by C3, set him on fire.

I'll do that re-read after doing the Cash re-read.

I'd note that it was more if I was doing things by c3. E!me has a hard time making up suspicions. 

But at the same time, if you can't see anything I've done so far as villagey by next cycle go ahead. Well, not if it's lylo, is it's lylo, exe someone who's actually an elim.

There are so many ninjas on this post. Oh well.

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

 

Frankly, fair. The grudge thing has hit me too. You’re V leaning well for me. 

Well first last cycle we gotta look at who started harping on Archer. Pulling up quotes:

TUA hopped on archer pretty early on in C2 for not catching/responding to a post and archer responded by citing TUA’s presence as reason to believe that he may have timed a quick kill switch. 

After a bit, TUA doubled down on Archer, saying pressuring based on timezones is a strange reason. I happen to slightly agree. Put the pressure on, just make sure to read the result and that your final reasoning ain’t time zones. However, the way this was defended seems a bit… quick. Basically I see it as making Archer’s claims seem forced. 
 

Tbis also has a vote on archer that I believe doesn’t move for the rest of the cycle? Double checking that. 
 

Archer brings up points that state regardless of time zone, when people are in is important to pay attention to. His post seems more thought out and towny because he is focused on seeing the reactions of other people, not just applying pressure and then waiting. 
 

The day goes on, and Aet gets voted on by Archer, and true  his earlier post, he observes Spark’s reaction with Aets nonchalance and unvotes accordingly. 

 

After this the thread is mainly about scaring Aeo, not getting sleep, and I get namedropped (yay!) as a potential elim (aw…) by Kas and TUA (huh.)

 

All of this makes me distrust TUA more than any other player here. I can see a quiet elim play style. My vote is gonna go on them, and I’ll go and see who they were supporting. 

Is there some reason you sussed every Archer voter except Aet and RBM? That post doesn't read like info issues specific to Archer — reads more focused and opportune.

@Wierdo Would you be able to spell out why you have that reaction to Aet but not me? To be clear, I'm actually trying to work out if you have TMI.

[Wierdo he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Is there some reason you sussed every Archer voter except Aet and RBM? That post doesn't read like info issues specific to Archer — reads more focused and opportune.

@Wierdo Would you be able to spell out why you have that reaction to Aet but not me? To be clear, I'm actually trying to work out if you have TMI.

TMI? What does that mean?

[Aeternum they, he]

3 minutes ago, Wierdo said:

TMI? What does that mean?

If you're elim, you have access to information that the rest of us townies don't, tmi is like slips where you've said something that only an elim would know.

afaik. I'm still bad with terms lol

Edited May 8 by Aeternum

[Wierdo he/him]

3 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

If you're elim, you have access to information that the rest of us townies don't, tmi is like slips where you've said something that only an elim would know.

afaik. I'm still bad with terms lol

Ohhhhhhh- thanks

[Kasimir he/him]

19 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

If you're elim, you have access to information that the rest of us townies don't, tmi is like slips where you've said something that only an elim would know.

afaik. I'm still bad with terms lol

This yes 

[Cash67 he/him]

21 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Completely fair, and I'd probably agree if I were to gth read myself objectively. Is the term powerwolfing correct for smth like this? (I'm not powerwolfing I promise lol). not me being sus on myself once again

Now the mean thing I'd ask is the difference between me and Kas, which there is a LOT of (Kas is way more of a TR than I probably am lol).

But you get a smiley face:  

Got anything to say about my vote on Archer, out of curiosity? Since you're talking about ppl who were on Archer

Your reasoning behind voting archer seems to be similar to my reasoning for not objecting to Archer being voted. Flipping him would give you information on others. You just actually took the shot. 

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Is there some reason you sussed every Archer voter except Aet and RBM? That post doesn't read like info issues specific to Archer — reads more focused and opportune.

@Wierdo Would you be able to spell out why you have that reaction to Aet but not me? To be clear, I'm actually trying to work out if you have TMI.

Yeah I said I would analyze TUA ealrier, so I kinda had a double mindset. Was analyzing the TUA-Archer interactions. See above for other thoughts on Aet and below for RBM. 

That’s where they voted. The vote seems a little out of the blue, but it is also a knee jerk vote to several knee jerk  votes. Not really helping my case for RBM, but TUA is still higher up in my book.

[Aeternum they, he]

4 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

Flipping him would give you information on others.

Well lol I messed up and it didn't really help in the end. Sorry Archer, I'll make an apology salmon.

Perhaps it was my plot to be the only A name left!!!

4 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

That’s where they voted. The vote seems a little out of the blue, but it is also a knee jerk vote to several knee jerk  votes. Not really helping my case for RBM, but TUA is still higher up in my book

I felt that RBM's vote was a hop on the wagon kind of vote. No original thought behind it.

Edit:

*checks the time*

UH AET SHOULD PROBABLY GO TO SLEEP SOON. 15 more minutes

Edited May 8 by Aeternum

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

That’s where they voted. The vote seems a little out of the blue, but it is also a knee jerk vote to several knee jerk  votes. Not really helping my case for RBM, but TUA is still higher up in my book.

You able to spell this out more?

Edit: @Aeternum There’s something interesting Cash is doing here and it's making me consider the best way forwards. 

[Aeternum they, he]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Edit: @Aeternum There’s something interesting Cash is doing here and it's making me consider the best way forwards. 

You got me for the next 15 minutes

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Aeternum said:

You got me for the next 15 minutes

Cash is avoiding the Bee train. I'd normally consider it a Village thing to do given he's currently endangered by his refusal but he's also got Bee down in an ambiguous sort of readspace that is making me consider the utility of switching to vote with you under the assumption they are teamed. 

[Aeternum they, he]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Cash is avoiding the Bee train. I'd normally consider it a Village thing to do given he's currently endangered by his refusal but he's also got Bee down in an ambiguous sort of readspace that is making me consider the utility of switching to vote with you under the assumption they are teamed. 

Interesting. I see it. You ok if I just leave my vote on RBM and let you decide? I uh. Should sleep. At some point soon lol.

In an e!Cash world, spew clears TUA afaik. In an e!RBM world, we'd push Cash anyway, I would assume, under the assumption they are paired.

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Interesting. I see it. You ok if I just leave my vote on RBM and let you decide? I uh. Should sleep. At some point soon lol.

In an e!Cash world, spew clears TUA afaik. In an e!RBM world, we'd push Cash anyway, I would assume, under the assumption they are paired.

Yeah you should sleep, dw. I was just backreading, don't mind me.

Cash, still open for discussions all the way to rollover 

[Cash67 he/him]

17 minutes ago, Aeternum said:

Well lol I messed up and it didn't really help in the end. Sorry Archer, I'll make an apology salmon.

Perhaps it was my plot to be the only A name left!!!

I felt that RBM's vote was a hop on the wagon kind of vote. No original thought behind it.

Edit:

*checks the time*

UH AET SHOULD PROBABLY GO TO SLEEP SOON. 15 more minutes

Yeah, hence my use of the phrase knee-jerk. It was quick and instinctual. 

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

You able to spell this out more?

Edit: @Aeternum There’s something interesting Cash is doing here and it's making me consider the best way forwards. 

Kinda like Art said, it was a quick vote. It was a join on the already forming train, and under that logic, I can’t suspect RBM more than I’d suspect Spark or anyone else who quickly voted Archer. Could they be an elim? Yes, but I’d rather get TUA out cause I have a stronger e!TUA read in him. 
 

Anyway… it’s 1 am. Going to be falling asleep now. May my eyes or my corpse meet yall tomorrow. Upon burial I request that my ashes be used to feed the salmon so I may be in service forevermore. 

Just now, Kasimir said:

Yeah you should sleep, dw. I was just backreading, don't mind me.

Cash, still open for discussions all the way to rollover 

Ninja’d, see above!!

[Aeternum they, he]

1 minute ago, Cash67 said:

Kinda like Art said, it was a quick vote. It was a join on the already forming train, and under that logic, I can’t suspect RBM more than I’d suspect Spark or anyone else who quickly voted Archer. Could they be an elim? Yes, but I’d rather get TUA out cause I have a stronger e!TUA read in him

I feel like flipping RBM could help narrow down potential partners more than flipping TUA.
OK GOODNIGHT FOR REAL NOW

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Cash67 said:

It was a join on the already forming train, and under that logic, I can’t suspect RBM more than I’d suspect Spark or anyone else who quickly voted Archer.

That’s kind of weird because Spark and RBM just aren't really equal here? Being third voter is different from being second, leaving aside their differing post histories.

But fair, get rest!

[Cash67 he/him]

1 minute ago, Aeternum said:

I feel like flipping RBM could help narrow down potential partners more than flipping TUA.
OK GOODNIGHT FOR REAL NOW

Like Kas said, we gotta get an elim now, or we have a chance to get outvoted depending on the initial E/V ratio. (Is the word distribution?) I’m going with my best pick for elim to try to prevent the game from ending.

 

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

That’s kind of weird because Spark and RBM just aren't really equal here? Being third voter is different from being second, leaving aside their differing post histories.

But fair, get rest!

Also valid. I was rereading and just saw the two posts in quick succession. Tired brain kinda lumped them together. 
 

Speaking of tired, I’ll copy aet and SCREAM ABOUT MY NEED FOR SLEEP WHISLT NOT GETTING SLEPP

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Cash67 said:

Speaking of tired, I’ll copy aet and SCREAM ABOUT MY NEED FOR SLEEP WHISLT NOT GETTING SLEPP

I'm really playing this cycle groggy on sedatives so it's been fun. I join the husky screaming

[The Unknown Ajah he/him]

Hmmm.

[Kasimir he/him]

EDIT:

2 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

Like Kas said, we gotta get an elim now, or we have a chance to get outvoted depending on the initial E/V ratio. (Is the word distribution?) I’m going with my best pick for elim to try to prevent the game from ending.

Yes and no? You yourself dismissed four Elims as unlikely though if there are four, we are certainly screwed. At three, if Village doesn't vote/together next cycle, assuming worst case result today, we are screwed. We're missing inputs from Quivil, Weaver (looked in and said nothing), and Wierdo did not vote so this doesn't bode well for reasons that have less to do with distro and more to do with landscape.

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Ajah said:

Hmmm.

EDIT2: Thoughts?

EDIT3: Ngl tempted to switch to TUA here.

[Cash67 he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

EDIT:

Yes and no? You yourself dismissed four Elims as unlikely though if there are four, we are certainly screwed. At three, if Village doesn't vote/together next cycle, assuming worst case result today, we are screwed. We're missing inputs from Quivil, Weaver (looked in and said nothing), and Wierdo did not vote so this doesn't bode well for reasons that have less to do with distro and more to do with landscape.

Yes I was referring to “flip v tonight = lose next cycle during voting”. Didn’t make that clear. LACK OF SLEEP WOOOO. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Hey Mat you interested in PHing for me?

[Aeternum they, he]

8 minutes ago, Cash67 said:

Speaking of tired, I’ll copy aet and SCREAM ABOUT MY NEED FOR SLEEP WHISLT NOT GETTING SLEPP

Me rn