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Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell


Elandera

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3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

regardless it feels like the team is mat/detess and they're framing alpha

I thought detess was voting me earlier

still haven't had time to go through things I mean i have but not

i turned my brain off for 7 cycles and now i have to turn it on and theoretically this should be easy but the easy answer is alpha/alv

i'll be on later today

So, why Mat/detess? and why Alpha/alv despite them not fitting the N3 or N5 action group for the kills? Like, I don't blame you for not trusting me, but that analysis is pure mech and not based on any trust.

To summarize (and you can check back to the thread if you want to), the N3 kill had to be submitted by one of:

  • Illwei
  • Mat
  • DeTess

and the N5 kill had to be submitted by one of:

  • Mat
  • Alpha
  • Alvron
  • DeTess

This is based purely one everyone else either having a mechanical alibi that's pretty much airtight (action confirmed in one way or another by someone that has since flipped village). Based on the above, alph/alvron is simply impossible, because neither could have submitted the N3 kill. Mat/DeTess is not mechanically impossible, but archer tried to get me executed D1 through last minute voting, and I've been trying to get Mat executed for 3-4 cycles now, so even if you believe I'm somehow an elim despite the double attempts to off me, me and Mat being on the same team seems really unlikely.

@IllweiWhy are you so convinced alpha is village now that you don't even want to consider them being an elim, despite having repeatedly stated suspicion of them in earlier cycles?

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I've got to commit to a vote as I likely won't be around untill turnover is over. I don't feel too confident about either illwei or mat being alpha's team mate, though I'm leaning more towards illwei.

Still, I think I have to stick to alpha as he's the one I'm sure of. @Alvron, @Matrim's Dice, @Illwei, please don't forget to vote. Also, I'd like to ask you to join my vote on Alpha as I won't be able to move my vote and anything not consolidated can be contested by the two remaining elims.

edit: alpha, just realized I didn't actually put the vote down yet.

Edited by DeTess
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Sorry Rand but my vote on Mat stands.  Ultimately it comes down to N3.  Until Elan gets back and reveals if the elims can self target it's down to either Mat or Wei.  A 50% shot at an elim.
Another reason why I'm not going to vote Alpha at this point is also covered in N3.  They passed a Mask to Devotary.  If Alpha is evil, why pass a protection item to a confirmed roleblocker that just outed and killed Aman?  Why claim to have that item at all when keeping it secret is much better, especially when they had also just lost Archer who had a protection item.  It makes zero sense from where I would play as an elim.

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37 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Sorry Rand but my vote on Mat stands.  Ultimately it comes down to N3.  Until Elan gets back and reveals if the elims can self target it's down to either Mat or Wei.  A 50% shot at an elim.
Another reason why I'm not going to vote Alpha at this point is also covered in N3.  They passed a Mask to Devotary.  If Alpha is evil, why pass a protection item to a confirmed roleblocker that just outed and killed Aman?  Why claim to have that item at all when keeping it secret is much better, especially when they had also just lost Archer who had a protection item.  It makes zero sense from where I would play as an elim.

So condense onto Illwei with me. You saw DeTess’ post, it’s not a 50/50 because Illwei is indisputably more aligned with the elims than I am.

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I hate this stage of the game.  I get too far into my own head and just go round and round and round.

Enter the Head of Alv (if you dare)

 

One of Mat/Wei is an elim!
One of Rand/Alpha is elim!

I don't trust Mat.  I don't trust Rand.  I don't trust Alpha.  I don't trust Wei.  I don't trust myself.


So what do I do when I can't trust anyone.  I turn to the Gods of Luck and Chance.
They tell me to vote for Mat.
I don't trust that roll.
I roll again.  It tells me to vote for Mat.
I still don't trust that roll.

So what's left?
The Assembly of Alvs!
I dust off Analytical!Alv and resurrect GM!Alv.
I ignore everything in thread except confirmed actions.  Opinions and theories are useless.
I take the known roles and with those in mind I work out what roles would best fit the remaining elims.
Analytical!Alv notes that a SE almost has to be on the elim team due to mechanics.
GM!Alv says 'almost' is the key word.  It can be bypassed by giving them a Thief and starting most of them off with protection items.
Elim!Alv raises his head.  States that a Thief can gain protection items fairly regularly should they survive long enough.
Best way to live long enough is to become Village.
Evil!Alv agrees with Elim!Alv.  Give powerful item to known Village all but gives you allies to help keep you alive.
Analytical!Alv is concerned.  This could be game breaking.  SE more controllable. One-shot protection easier to balance around
GM!Alv notes that with the 33% chance of finding items and only a 50% chance of item being useful for protection it's very well balanced for elim team to have.  Starts running numbers and scenarios.
Village!Alv reminds the Assembly that time is running out.
Thread!Alv remarks that Wei and Alpha haven't voted nor made any case for who to vote for despite it being Lylo.
Elim!Alv says that's what he would do.  Let the Village spin itself in circles before adding votes either in secret or at last minute.
PM!Alv is just chilling.
GM!Alv finishes running numbers and concludes that Thief role very useful for elims to subvert Elim!SE hunt and is something that he might do if running game.
Analytical!Alv notes that Alpha is more likely candidate for Elim!Thief than others.
Thread!Alv wonders if remaining elims have SB and can drag this out another couple of cycles.
Elim!Alv quietly chuckles.


Alpha.  With the information I have, you are the best bet.

 

Vote!Alv says Mat or Wei are better target if there is a SE.  Especially with Mat given he's lost his SB.

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28 minutes ago, Alvron said:

I hate this stage of the game.  I get too far into my own head and just go round and round and round.

Enter the Head of Alv (if you dare)

  Hide contents

One of Mat/Wei is an elim!
One of Rand/Alpha is elim!

I don't trust Mat.  I don't trust Rand.  I don't trust Alpha.  I don't trust Wei.  I don't trust myself.


So what do I do when I can't trust anyone.  I turn to the Gods of Luck and Chance.
They tell me to vote for Mat.
I don't trust that roll.
I roll again.  It tells me to vote for Mat.
I still don't trust that roll.

So what's left?
The Assembly of Alvs!
I dust off Analytical!Alv and resurrect GM!Alv.
I ignore everything in thread except confirmed actions.  Opinions and theories are useless.
I take the known roles and with those in mind I work out what roles would best fit the remaining elims.
Analytical!Alv notes that a SE almost has to be on the elim team due to mechanics.
GM!Alv says 'almost' is the key word.  It can be bypassed by giving them a Thief and starting most of them off with protection items.
Elim!Alv raises his head.  States that a Thief can gain protection items fairly regularly should they survive long enough.
Best way to live long enough is to become Village.
Evil!Alv agrees with Elim!Alv.  Give powerful item to known Village all but gives you allies to help keep you alive.
Analytical!Alv is concerned.  This could be game breaking.  SE more controllable. One-shot protection easier to balance around
GM!Alv notes that with the 33% chance of finding items and only a 50% chance of item being useful for protection it's very well balanced for elim team to have.  Starts running numbers and scenarios.
Village!Alv reminds the Assembly that time is running out.
Thread!Alv remarks that Wei and Alpha haven't voted nor made any case for who to vote for despite it being Lylo.
Elim!Alv says that's what he would do.  Let the Village spin itself in circles before adding votes either in secret or at last minute.
PM!Alv is just chilling.
GM!Alv finishes running numbers and concludes that Thief role very useful for elims to subvert Elim!SE hunt and is something that he might do if running game.
Analytical!Alv notes that Alpha is more likely candidate for Elim!Thief than others.
Thread!Alv wonders if remaining elims have SB and can drag this out another couple of cycles.
Elim!Alv quietly chuckles.


Alpha.  With the information I have, you are the best bet.

  Hide contents

Vote!Alv says Mat or Wei are better target if there is a SE.  Especially with Mat given he's lost his SB.

Wait what?

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Who knows the end? What has risen may sink, and what has sunk may rise. Loathsomeness waits and dreams in the deep, and decay spreads over the tottering cities of men.

He is awake.

What joy fills my soul as the ancient one rises from his slumber in R'lyeh, breaking through Hell itself to enter this world. To dominate once again. We have succeeded.

He is awake.

Doom awaits us all and I welcome its coming. I rejoice in the destruction. The desolation. He will enact his vengeance on the world stolen from him.

He is awake.

He is here.


Illwei has been executed! They were a Homesteader and a Thief!

Vote count:

Illwei (2) - Matrim's Dice, TheAlpha929
TheAlpha929 (2) - DeTess, Alvron

The Cult of Cthulhu has triumphed! Cthulhu has risen! Congratulations to @TheAlpha929, @Matrim's Dice, @Archer and @Amanuensis for their victory.

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. The Known Novel Homesteader
  2. Archer Cultist 
  3. @Matrim's Dice Cultist Shade Expert
  4. Araris Valerian Homesteader Writer
  5. Telrao / IllweiHomesteader Thief
  6. Kasimir Homesteader Shade Expert
  7. The Last Fae Homesteader Thief
  8. Amanuensis Cultist with Iron Will
  9. Sart Homesteader Writer
  10. @TheAlpha929 - Cultist Thief
  11. Ashbringer Homesteader
  12. |TJ| Homesteader
  13. @DeTess - Homesteader Writer
  14. JNV / Walin Homesteader with Iron Will
  15. Steeldancer Homesteader
  16. @Alvron - Homesteader
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity - Homesteader White Fox with Iron Will

Spectres and Spectators
The Cult of Cthulhu
Master Spreadsheet

Edited by Elandera
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1 minute ago, TheAlpha929 said:

uh 

so wait, wasn't it outnumber?

Yes, however the village no longer had any ability to block the night kill. Your team has not missed a submission yet, so the night turn would have been a formality only.

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So were all those alleged Elder Sign Pendants just crap or what

I guess if we’d hit one the holder would have gone insane, giving us a free exe?

Anyway @TheAlpha929 you’re a freaking legend

@Amanuensis and @Archer too, legitimately nothing would have worked without the incredible levels of set up and distancing you two did

It was only like yesterday when I was like “wait we could actually win” after a solid week of a complete lack of faith and I’m still not really sure how that happened >> There were bouts of stupidly lucky RNG (Alpha’s thieving, the exe just now) mixed with stupidly unlucky everything else (like not getting a successful kill until… N4?) and honestly am just relieved it’s over yknow :P

Also I am an SE, that should probably be in the player list even though I lost my powers? Or not idk

Edit: Steel had Ash’s pendant oh my gosh

add that to the list of dumb luck >>

Edited by Matrim's Dice
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20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

So were all those alleged Elder Sign Pendants just crap or what

I guess if we’d hit one the holder would have gone insane, giving us a free exe?

Anyway @TheAlpha929 you’re a freaking legend

@Amanuensis and @Archer too, legitimately nothing would have worked without the incredible levels of set up and distancing you two did

It was only like yesterday when I was like “wait we could actually win” after a solid week of a complete lack of faith and I’m still not really sure how that happened >> There were bouts of stupidly lucky RNG (Alpha’s thieving, the exe just now) mixed with stupidly unlucky everything else (like not getting a successful kill until… N4?) and honestly am just relieved it’s over yknow :P

Also I am an SE, that should probably be in the player list even though I lost my powers? Or not idk

Edit: Steel had Ash’s pendant oh my gosh

add that to the list of dumb luck >>

Thanks, though you 100% carried me.

Good job to the entire village, but definitely @DeTess and a few others

gg mates

that was really fun, but I'm kind of glad it's over. I was reading the spec doc, and I can't remember who said it, but they talked about how the game would be "short and sweet"! yeah, right.

@Alvron, you scared the living crem out of me. good job figuring me out perfectly!

sorry mat, maybe in the future I'll be a more proactive teammate. 

and last but not least, thanks @Elandera for the great game!

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4 minutes ago, DeTess said:

@TheAlpha929did you intentionally soft claim elim at the end there to make me paranoid about you having silver bones and make me look for another execution?

uh, let's say that's why I did it, and definitely not the fact that I had basically given up :D

Spoiler

stupidfrickingglowpastescrewyou

 

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This was a very interesting game.
Elandera.  Thank you very much for running it and for being so cool with my RP orders.
Kas, I hate your freaking Shade.  It's still haunting me.
 

Quote

I feel like Unforgettable Horrors just senses Zunn the Mad lurking behind Alv :P

You're not the only one.  When I first went insane, Zunn immediately rose from the grave.  I'm fairly sure this game is his origin story.
 

Quote

 

He rolled a me vote twice lol RNG never fails Alv

And I love that evil!Alv and elim!Alv are two different personas

It's not that I distrusted the rolls but Rand wasn't going to change so I had to pick and had to come up with a reason to. If only Rand had joined me instead. :) 
While similar there are some very key differences so they needed their own personas in my head.
 

1 minute ago, TheAlpha929 said:

@Alvron, you scared the living crem out of me. good job figuring me out perfectly!

The Assembly of Alvs thank you for the kind words.
GM!Alv does think that a Thief and SE on elim team is a bit strong though.
Vig!Alv thinks there should've been more crossbows and he should get 3 of them.

Well played Mat and Alpha.  You got hammered at the start and were always on the back foot but you hung in there and pulled off a fantastic win.

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Thanks to Elan for running this, and congrats to the Elim team. I don't have anything kind or worth saying about Village play this game, so I won't say it.

Quote

Kas’ thread control point… a team with me/Archer/Aman does seem kinda insane at face value, but obviously it did not end up the way that it looks like it could have. So like I guess, future GMs, don’t be scared to make an elim team that on paper looks crazy? Let RNG do what RNG does? Idk.

Disagree. Removing present players from the Village is just as much a Village handicap. A lot of it depends on who's left on the Village roster (I reserve comments about Village complacency or low activity dgaf "lol who cares about playing a game I signed up for" players) and it requires the GM to plan for: A. Elim team likely needing to bus, and B. potential high volatility.

Not saying it's impossible - I ran with a similar Elim rand in MR57 and they narrowly clutched thanks to RNGesus which maybe says something about how these things end up in play.

Quote

The next time Kas self votes in a game I’m going to quote that last post of his at him :eyes: haha

@Matrim's Dice Sure, given this was specifically a comment about Fae voting that way given teammates up for the exe, therefore more a point in favour of V!Fae, but don't let me stop you from taking quotes out of context, you do you ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited to add: Maybe instead of 'present', let's substitute: 'players who exist and actively seek to have an impact on the game with their votes and role actions and reads, at a level somewhat above baseline, where baseline is currently, evidently, defined somewhere in the vicinity of 'occasionally votes and remembers the game exists, acting with marginally more agency than a damp cloth.''

1 hour ago, Alvron said:

Kas, I hate your freaking Shade.  It's still haunting me.

I didn't do anything about it. You're the one who voted and got me exed for not knowing how to play like a Villager, having come off...let's see, one Evil game, one Good Guy Fain game, and the game where Wyrm viciously stabbed me in the back, none of which are games that taught me how to play Village :P I think that's just called 'having a conscience'? :P 

Edited by Kasimir
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