Long Game 94: The Call of the Forest of Hell

[Alvron]

1 minute ago, Elandera said:

Ah, I skipped over a name. The count should now be correct. It's 10/10.

Noo!  My mystery!!!

[DeTess she/her]

So that means the elim!SE theory has now been 100% confirmed. No real clue about who it is yet though.

Did Archer drop any loot? I didn't get anything at least.

Edit: hmmm, there might be some narrowing down about who it is possible. Probably not steel is the e!SE was active, probably not JNV as they claimed a defensive item and I don't think the e!SE would triple-dip like that. More thoughts on this later.

Edited May 3, 2023 by DeTess

[Illwei]

2 hours ago, DeTess said:

So that means the elim!SE theory has now been 100% confirmed. No real clue about who it is yet though.

Did Archer drop any loot? I didn't get anything at least.

Edit: hmmm, there might be some narrowing down about who it is possible. Probably not steel is the e!SE was active, probably not JNV as they claimed a defensive item and I don't think the e!SE would triple-dip like that. More thoughts on this later.

Why is it confirmed? It's plausible that he had an item that protected him

[DeTess she/her]

41 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Why is it confirmed? It's plausible that he had an item that protected him

Shade experts have silver bones as a standard, so having another protection item on top of that feels a bit much. It's no guarantee of course, but I do think it is unlikely.

Edit: misunderstood, sorry. The only way that Sart could have died while not increasing the shade counter is by dying to the shades, and the only way sart could get shaded without succesfully killing someone is by hitting someone protected by the shade expert.

Edited May 3, 2023 by DeTess

[Kasimir he/him]

47 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Shade experts have silver bones as a standard, so having another protection item on top of that feels a bit much. It's no guarantee of course, but I do think it is unlikely.

Edit: misunderstood, sorry. The only way that Sart could have died while not increasing the shade counter is by dying to the shades, and the only way sart could get shaded without succesfully killing someone is by hitting someone protected by the shade expert.

What DeTess said. We know from the combination of dead Sart and no increase that Wrath triggered. Since it sure as hell wasn't my protect, it's from the E!SE.

Announcing that Archer had a Spellbook. I guess I have some extra-spicy decisions to be making tonight! >>

[Illwei]

but he could have had a pallid mask, no?

[Kasimir he/him]

29 minutes ago, Illwei said:

but he could have had a pallid mask, no?

Pallid Mask does not protect from Wrath of the Shades.

Edited to add: It also doesn't trigger it. There is no world in which Sart can die from normal Wrath if he doesn't successfully kill Archer. There is no other corpse. Therefore, it cannot be normal Wrath.

To repeat: 

1 corpse = Sart -> This entails that Wrath of the Shades would not normally have triggered because there was no kill. A player must actually be dead for Wrath to increase and potentially be triggered. Sart was the only corpse, so Sart could not have triggered Wrath.

Wrath counter = 5% -> This entails that the Wrath counter reset, because it always increases when there is a corpse. The only exception is when a Shade Expert's retaliatory protect is triggered.

Put all of that together and it has to be an E!Shade Expert.

Edited to add 2:

5 hours ago, DeTess said:

probably not JNV as they claimed a defensive item

They did?

Edited May 3, 2023 by Kasimir

[DeTess she/her]

26 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

They did?

I misremembered. It was alpha that claimed that, not JNV.

[Kasimir he/him]

Hi Elims

I don't think you have any reason to trust me but you better hide your actions because I'm using a Spellbook on one of you tonight :eyes:

Thank Archer for me.

<3

-Mordekai, actual Shade Expert >:)

Edited to add: @TheAlpha929 - You mind passing/loaning your Mask to White Fox Devo instead? Think I'm good for now  

Edited to add 2: @Alvron: 

Quote

I've known Araris was evil since Devotary was proven Village.  

?

Edited to add 3: @Illwei 

Quote

Those who kill another player have a 5% chance of their precautions failing, thus they will be attacked by the shades and killed. This does not include the execution. Every time a player kills another player the chances of enraging the Shades increases by 5%. Once someone dies to the Shades, the percentage resets.

The reason it can't be a pallid mask is this rule clarification from the write-up claris.

Quote

Once someone dies to the Shades, the percentage resets.

i.e. the only reason we have 5% right now implies that Sart died to the Shades. If say, Archer had been attacked by normal Wrath of the Shades but stayed alive because he was protected, then we don't see a reset.

Quote

Those who kill another player have a 5% chance of their precautions failing, thus they will be attacked by the shades and killed. 

i.e. another player must be dead, not merely attacked. Archer had not been dead at the start of D3 (and recall Archer never denied being attacked by Sart.) This means that that Sart's attack could not have triggered Wrath because the necessary condition, Archer's death, was not fulfilled.

The only way these two conditions work is:

-Sart attacks Archer. This trips the E!SE protection.
-Archer survives but goes insane.
-Wrath triggers because of the protection.
-Sart dies.

A Pallid Mask couldn't lead to Wrath being triggered so it isn't possible here.

Edited to add 4:

Don't understand the late exchange between @Matrim's Dice and @Illwei. Train size + the fact he was scanned doing nothing, against his claims, had made some dubious claims anyway, etc just made this a hard train to defend. Not sure why lack of resistance indicative of anything here - Elims were not going to win this one in most realistic worlds.

Edited May 3, 2023 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Don't understand the late exchange between @Matrim's Dice and @Illwei. Train size + the fact he was scanned doing nothing, against his claims, had made some dubious claims anyway, etc just made this a hard train to defend. Not sure why lack of resistance indicative of anything here - Elims were not going to win this one in most realistic worlds.

That’s what I was saying, yeah. Still a little confused but I don’t think it matters much.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That’s what I was saying, yeah. Still a little confused but I don’t think it matters much.

True. The additional element might be the Spellbook - it seems the Elims wanted the Spellbook more than they wanted the Silver Dust, which if you think about it from the fact they still had a functioning SE protect back then, makes sense. But the fact Archer also put in no kill suggests they either didn't need it (Silver Dust in Elim hands - hi Araris!) or decided to do without it because keeping Archer alive was more important.

Edited to add: Do without it -> Just kill and tank the 5%.

Edited to add 2:

<TKN, Mat, Araris, Eiwlil, Kas, Fae, Alpha, Ash, TJ, DeTess, JNV, Steel, Alv, Devo>

Of this list:

Strike out Devo for the roleblock. Strike out myself for the Lurch. Steel wasn't remotely online I think, so strike him out for now.

<TKN, Mat, Araris, Eiwlil, Kas, Fae, Alpha, Ash, TJ, DeTess, JNV, Steel, Alv, Devo>

Suppose we strike out TKN for seeming Village by that denunciation of Archer. Suppose as well we kick Mat out for being one Archer CW and who Aman broke the tie on after Rollovet. Suppose we also strike out DeTess for being the other Archer CW.

Suppose we strike out TJ for claiming to have wanted to pass a Pallid Mask - no way of confirming the action was really 'Pass Mask' rather than 'send in kill' but he has an alibi, which we don't really necessarily have for the rest of the list.

This gives us a pool of:

<TKN, Mat, Araris, Eiwlil, Kas, Fae, Alpha, Ash, TJ, DeTess, JNV, Steel, Alv, Devo>

<Araris, Eiwlil, Fae, Alpha, Ash, JNV, Alv> - this is the cleaned up version. Two of whom are likely to have put in the kill and the protect respectively.

Edited May 3, 2023 by Kasimir
Spacing

[Tea Leaf]

Wasn't Archer insane? Does that mean someone used VitC on me?

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, The Last Fæ said:

Wasn't Archer insane? Does that mean someone used VitC on me?

@Elandera?

[DeTess she/her]

So, just running a bit of analysis on Archer, specifically looking at this post right now:

Now, trying to parse an elim's read list is definitely an exercise in IKYK, but there might still be something to be learned from that.

First thing of note are the people Archer didn't mention in their read list:

• The Known Novel (did question, didn't mention in reads)
• Araris Valerian
• Sart (RIP)
• TheAlpha929
• Ashbringer 
• |TJ| (did question, didn't mention in reads)
• Steeldancer 
• Alvron (did question, didn't mention in reads)

It should also be noted that tough they did include JNV on their read's list, it wasn't a serious read.

Some of these players had just been pretty quiet, but I feel like some others (specifically, Araris, Ash and Alpha) had said enough that it should have been possible to form reads on them, so Archer skipping over them stands out a little to my mind. That doesn't mean these are confirmed elim, but it does mean Archer for some reason didn't want to commit to a stance on them yet.
Archer's hard village reads where those that seemed to be quite universally village read at that time, while the weak village read is Fae, for some reason. Illwei starts at weak village but then immediately gets downgraded to neutral/ I'll take a closer look at Fae if I'm still alive tomorrow.
only serious elim read was me, and Archer backed off on that pretty quickly when I answered their question.

[Tea Leaf]

15 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Archer's hard village reads where those that seemed to be quite universally village read at that time, while the weak village read is Fae, for some reason. Illwei starts at weak village but then immediately gets downgraded to neutral/ I'll take a closer look at Fae if I'm still alive tomorrow.

Thanks, don't know what I can say to make you gain total certainty that I am innocent but I do hope my general misdirections so far don't disprove the truths I have said.

Also I didn't get any items from theif, sorry.

[DeTess she/her]

Just now, The Last Fæ said:

Thanks, don't know what I can say to make you gain total certainty that I am innocent but I do hope my general misdirections so far don't disprove the truths I have said.

So just for the record, I don't really have a read on you one way or another, but Archer's mention just makes me curious enough to want to take a good look at your posts.

[Tea Leaf]

2 minutes ago, DeTess said:

So just for the record, I don't really have a read on you one way or another, but Archer's mention just makes me curious enough to want to take a good look at your posts.

'Kay hate to be voted out for being confusing. So some clear reads would be nice.

Though isn't it to my benefit that Archer voted for me, unless the elims wanted to use misdirection (If I was an elim I would do that)?

[Kasimir he/him]

D2:

Quote

Amanuensis (7) - The Known Novel, Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, |TJ|, DeTess, JNV, Devotary of Spontaneity

D3:

Quote

Archer (10) - The Known Novel, Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, Kasimir, The Last Fae, TheAlpha929, Ashbringer, |TJ|, DeTess, Devotary of Spontaneity

I felt like it's worth highlighting the delta here. If you expect the Elims to be on both trains no matter what to gain items, then we need to be looking in the: <TKN, Mat, Araris, TJ, DeTess, Devo> pool - but these have a high preponderance of Village-appearing players, and as Mat pointed out earlier, even if we don't expect the train to be fully clean, we likely expect a Village majority there, sufficient to make the Elims feel a bus is inevitable.

What if we take the other way around though?

Suppose we hypothesise the Elims wanted the Spellbook more than Silver Dust:

Then we see two discrepancies: JNV votes on D2 but not on D3. Conversely, Fae, Alpha, and Ash all join on D3 but weren't present on D2.

Edited to add: I don't include myself in the delta as I was insane on D2 and anyway had chosen to vote for Aman.

Edited May 3, 2023 by Kasimir

[Tea Leaf]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Then we see two discrepancies: JNV votes on D2 but not on D3. Conversely, Fae, Alpha, and Ash all join on D3 but weren't present on D2.

 

Oh, um... I might have sort of kinda somewhat forgot that I was part of this.

[Tea Leaf]

People who may have used VitC on me (assuming VitC wasn't also used on Archer): Illwei, JNV, Steeldancer, Alvron, Me. So first of all we can rule out Me, and Steeldancer because No interest & not around, respectively. So three people, one of them probably tried to use VitC on me (for some reason). I am no good at reads so I think I'll side on the Illwei search. 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 minute ago, The Last Fæ said:

People who may have used VitC on me (assuming VitC wasn't also used on Archer): Illwei, JNV, Steeldancer, Alvron, Me. So first of all we can rule out Me, and Steeldancer because No interest & not around, respectively. So three people, one of them probably tried to use VitC on me (for some reason). I am no good at reads so I think I'll side on the Illwei search. 

Archer is the one who voted you.

[Tea Leaf]

Just now, The Known Novel said:

Archer is the one who voted you.

They were insane last cycle.

Quote

Archer has gone insane!

 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Just now, The Last Fæ said:

They were insane last cycle.

 

Oh, @Elandera, what's up with that?

If Archer was insane I'm pretty sure Elan hasn't been adding them.

[Kasimir he/him]

14 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Oh, @Elandera, what's up with that?

If Archer was insane I'm pretty sure Elan hasn't been adding them.

I'm leaning towards GM mistake at this point - since Archer was insane, his name shouldn't have appeared because that was a no-vote. At least that was what happened to my vote on Aman. Then we just see an anon vote for Fae, if there's one.

[Tea Leaf]

Just now, Kasimir said:

I'm leaning towards GM mistake at this point - since Archer was insane, his name shouldn't have appeared because that was a no-vote. At least that was what happened to my vote on Aman. Then we just see an anon vote for Fae, if there's one.

Oh, okay. Illwei