The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Reads Bucket Hide contents Not Even Questioning It: Kasimir Probably Village: Illwei, Steeldancer, DeTess Better Than Null: Alvron, Fae Quokka: JNV Mixed Feelings: Mat, TJ, Sart, Araris, Aloha, Archer, Devo Won’t Blink: Ash, TKN More trusted on left, less trusted on the right. Won’t Blink is black since while I don’t mind either dying, there’s not a lot of content to go on. As such, would rather exe in my Mixed Feelings pile, as I feel they have the greatest likelihood of producing further leads. If you want to know why anyone is specifically where they are, let me know. It’s hard to take notes on mobile so most of the reasoning is just in my head, but I also don’t want to waste hours typing it all out at once Curious why I'm in not blink, think I've got a significant amount more posts on Ash and more relevant ones at that.
Amanuensis he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) 15 minutes ago, The Known Novel said: Curious why I'm in not blink, think I've got a significant amount more posts on Ash and more relevant ones at that. The main thing with Mixed Feelings is a lot of those players have a wider range of interactions, especially in conflict with each other. For example, TJ and Araris are extremely unlikely to be paired with Archer. The only thing I really flagged for you was the retraction from Alpha after Kas and I voted him, but that fell apart when I realized you didn’t understand we were calling him Aloha. Otherwise, I haven’t seen anything that made me go “That’s a villager.” It’s basically my null pile. That said, am curious to see who you vote. 13 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: E!Mat feels safe until my vote and isn't willing to switch to DeTess after saying that he doesn't think she's evil, counting on being safe after surviving a three way tie. I still think Archer's more evil though. I don't like Sart being so convinced that a white fox claiming gets a free kill on an elim and a confirmed villager. That reads like he already knows whether the blocked kill was a white fox roleblock or a shade expert protect. However, e!Sart would have to either backtrack abruptly if a white fox claim didn't pan out or be 100% willing to sacrifice a teammate depending on scenario. I can see the attempted killer being written off in the latter case. Overall read this as suspicious unless he claims responsibility for the lack of kill. Was about to vote Devo myself but went to reread a few posts again, and I kinda like this Sart take. I finally have a firmer grasp of the rules and what could have happened last night (everybody thank Kas), so I want to ruminate for a bit. Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: Isn't it Archer who is basically "Praise Sart!" with every other post or am I high? Looking back, less than I'd heard. Only one post where he agrees with Sart, unless you count him voting for Mat after Mat voted Sart. 1 hour ago, Kasimir said: I don't deny that roles can be valuable but I'm always unabashedly about analysis and thread participation first. It's bread-and-butter. Probably a bit soapboaxy here but I do have strong views about players who want to role and not bother with Village legwork. And I feel this kind of comes out (unrelated I'll agree) at endgame or midgame when players are sometimes too quick to be unnecessarily oversecretive. Like ok maybe this is the best way to express my view rn - I don't need them to claim explicitly. But if we could have a guaranteed E flip and get a V flip today imma be mad. Avoidable MLs on V should be avoided. That's my end stance. True that roleblocks are less valuable in this game than in the previous one where roleblocks were just about the only way to stop infinite conversion. Fine. We're not going anywhere with votes more than 3/4 of the way into the turn, and now that Aman's posted his reads list I'm ready to claim. I'm a (the? things could get awkward if there's more than one) white fox (hence making my character Silence's new business partner). I roleblocked Aman since I thought I'd be too obvious if I roleblocked Archer. Just like my first game with a role with claiming scan-type role and accusing someone on circumstantial evidence just because I'm not willing to let a likely villager die when it's avoidable (not that I'm sold on Ash being a villager). We don't have infinite protects like in that game, but I suppose we can still give Alv a gun crossbow. @Elims, if you have a writer, please send me a PM. In exchange for not killing me, if you send me a list of elims I promise not to roleblock them.
Amanuensis he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: Looking back, less than I'd heard. Only one post where he agrees with Sart, unless you count him voting for Mat after Mat voted Sart. True that roleblocks are less valuable in this game than in the previous one where roleblocks were just about the only way to stop infinite conversion. Fine. We're not going anywhere with votes more than 3/4 of the way into the turn, and now that Aman's posted his reads list I'm ready to claim. I'm a (the? things could get awkward if there's more than one) white fox (hence making my character Silence's new business partner). I roleblocked Aman since I thought I'd be too obvious if I roleblocked Archer. Just like my first game with a role with claiming scan-type role and accusing someone on circumstantial evidence just because I'm not willing to let a likely villager die when it's avoidable (not that I'm sold on Ash being a villager). We don't have infinite protects like in that game, but I suppose we can still give Alv a gun crossbow. @Elims, if you have a writer, please send me a PM. In exchange for not killing me, if you send me a list of elims I promise not to roleblock them. Alas, I didn’t take any action last night. Sorry you just claimed =\ ED1T: Devo moves up to Probably Village. Very small world any elim makes that claim. Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis
Kasimir he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) Aman. Et tu, ThreadPMBro? Really always thought you'd take the Kira approach here but respect that you wanted to send me to an honorable death in the Light. Then again maybe I'm really just assuming it's me. Two thoughts here: 1. Devo would not be told if she was redirected. If anyone used a spellbook, it is imperative to claim. This would massively screw with the results. 2. Tbh it is theoretically possible to confirm if Aman was RBed by having him use VitC. If he really was RBed, he won't be able to. This does require high voting participation and there's a chance that something could go very badly wrong cf. if Aman's vote is lost and someone else VitCs. Problem with 2 world IMO is that I think it only establishes if Devo is truthful, not whether Aman really is Evil. I think that's a fundamental calculus that has to be made. From what I'm seeing, main alternative world is the Elims just didn't send in a kill and IDK how I feel about likelihood. This should do for now. I'll set an alarm to come back with more SAN in a couple hours. EDIT: @Amanuensis Sry muddled. Am explicitly willing to entertain V you worlds, would like to hear your view on this situation. EDIT 2: Sry still not being clear. Forgot Devo can't be redirected because of OoA. Ignore 2 it's meaningless here. Edited April 29, 2023 by Kasimir
Amanuensis he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Aman. Et tu, ThreadPMBro? Really always thought you'd take the Kira approach here but respect that you wanted to send me to an honorable death in the Light. Then again maybe I'm really just assuming it's me. Two thoughts here: 1. Devo would not be told if she was redirected. If anyone used a spellbook, it is imperative to claim. This would massively screw with the results. 2. Tbh it is theoretically possible to confirm if Aman was RBed by having him use VitC. If he really was RBed, he won't be able to. This does require high voting participation and there's a chance that something could go very badly wrong cf. if Aman's vote is lost and someone else VitCs. Problem with 2 world IMO is that I think it only establishes if Devo is truthful, not whether Aman really is Evil. I think that's a fundamental calculus that has to be made. From what I'm seeing, main alternative world is the Elims just didn't send in a kill and IDK how I feel about likelihood. This should do for now. I'll set an alarm to come back with more SAN in a couple hours. EDIT: @Amanuensis Sry muddled. Am explicitly willing to entertain V you worlds, would like to hear your view on this situation. Was just about to respond actually I have a theory about a Shade Expert that protected you, but I’d rather not out the person I think it is if I’m right. If they do claim, I’d appreciate it, but don’t mind them keeping quiet and me dying today tbh. Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis
Kasimir he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Devo moves up to Probably Village. Very small world any elim makes that claim. Fundamentally agree with this assessment. Probably some bizarre world in which this is some mass distancing plan but I'll pass on that cough syrup for now. As crude as this is, the E!solution to V!Aman is not a convoluted claim but the NK. Ok. Have gotten back up and to PC. To be fair, this decision is not in my hands. I do think it's worth voting Aman here, just to confirm which world, and I think this is relevant information. But I'm also the insane guy here so my vote doesn't count and it doesn't functionally matter. In the meanwhile, in an event of a V!Aman world, I do want to make sense of as many of his reads as possible because that's helpful going forward. People can @ me if they don't think this calculus makes sense, because I'm not fully sure of this myself, but when push comes to shove, I have difficulty being fully rational when it comes to lynching a player that I sort of - don't want to for emotional/bro reasons if it makes sense. 9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I have a theory about a Shade Expert that protected you, but I’d rather not out the person I think it is if I’m right. If they do, I’d appreciate it, but don’t mind them keeping quiet and me dying today tbh. How many max do you expect in this game? I'm currently trying to work out if we can expect them to be covered as well, along with Devo. Thinking through this situation. Edited to add: @Devotary of Spontaneity - FWIW I can actually think of a way to keep you alive for consecutive cycles. But it does require the/a SE to explicitly protect you this Night (hi SE, get on this?). Edited April 29, 2023 by Kasimir
DeTess she/her Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 devotary Signing off here for the day. Devotaries claim makes me lean village on them, but I won't be around to see if aman's alignment is tested another way or if it's decided to lynch, so leaving my vote out for now. If no aman lynch would happen I'd probably vote ash instead.
Kasimir he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 Just now, DeTess said: devotary Signing off here for the day. Devotaries claim makes me lean village on them, but I won't be around to see if aman's alignment is tested another way or if it's decided to lynch, so leaving my vote out for now. If no aman lynch would happen I'd probably vote ash instead. As you're currently one of the players I'm willing to believe Village with the asterisk of need to re-read posts: do you believe there is another way to test this, or to go ahead? I don't feel I can make a good unemotional judgement here.
DeTess she/her Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 1 minute ago, Kasimir said: As you're currently one of the players I'm willing to believe Village with the asterisk of need to re-read posts: do you believe there is another way to test this, or to go ahead? I don't feel I can make a good unemotional judgement here. I'm pretty tired rn, so can't really think of anything. I thought you mentioned something?
Amanuensis he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Fundamentally agree with this assessment. Probably some bizarre world in which this is some mass distancing plan but I'll pass on that cough syrup for now. As crude as this is, the E!solution to V!Aman is not a convoluted claim but the NK. Ok. Have gotten back up and to PC. To be fair, this decision is not in my hands. I do think it's worth voting Aman here, just to confirm which world, and I think this is relevant information. But I'm also the insane guy here so my vote doesn't count and it doesn't functionally matter. In the meanwhile, in an event of a V!Aman world, I do want to make sense of as many of his reads as possible because that's helpful going forward. People can @ me if they don't think this calculus makes sense, because I'm not fully sure of this myself, but when push comes to shove, I have difficulty being fully rational when it comes to lynching a player that I sort of - don't want to for emotional/bro reasons if it makes sense. How many max do you expect in this game? I'm currently trying to work out if we can expect them to be covered as well, along with Devo. Thinking through this situation. I actually wouldn’t be surprised of 2-3 Village, don’t know about elims. Main reason for that is multiple Thugs is a decent way to balance a larger elim team, given the outnumber wincon is tough for elims to close out (from my experience). Larger e!team also helps them not get ripped apart by Wrath of the Shades. I had been thinking about this after rereading Archer presenting that theory, if with less reasoning, C1. The fact that Shade Experts can only successfully block once of another decent excuse for a larger number. No indefinite protects. Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis
Kasimir he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 Just now, DeTess said: I'm pretty tired rn, so can't really think of anything. I thought you mentioned something? Ah, apologies. Anyway I was an idiot and it doesn't work. OoA means White Fox comes prior to redirects so there's no point testing it. I was also gonna point out that even if it didn't, there still is no point. Because Aman doesn't dispute that he was RBed - the question here is whether what Devo stopped was the kill or not. Testing/proving whether he was roleblocked doesn't close that question so we just postpone the pain another Turn which is meaningless. ...If I grit my teeth and admit this, I would very willingly lynch for this if it were anyone else outside of a set of certain players and I would understand if the Village lynched me if this happened to me so IDK if I need to simply be consistent in what it takes for me to be willing to go after someone ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Amanuensis he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 Just now, Kasimir said: Ah, apologies. Anyway I was an idiot and it doesn't work. OoA means White Fox comes prior to redirects so there's no point testing it. I was also gonna point out that even if it didn't, there still is no point. Because Aman doesn't dispute that he was RBed - the question here is whether what Devo stopped was the kill or not. Testing/proving whether he was roleblocked doesn't close that question so we just postpone the pain another Turn which is meaningless. ...If I grit my teeth and admit this, I would very willingly lynch for this if it were anyone else outside of a set of certain players and I would understand if the Village lynched me if this happened to me so IDK if I need to simply be consistent in what it takes for me to be willing to go after someone ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ FTR, don’t blame you or anyone else who votes me o7 I’d do the same in your shoes. Sad tho Well, for y’all I won’t have to figure out what actually happened
DeTess she/her Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 Argh, wish this had come a couple hours earlier so that I could try to think this through properly. Aman is I think for the best? Unless some other explanation for the lack of kill materialises this just really needs to be resolved.
Amanuensis he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 Oh I should probably claim too. I’m a Thief that started with nothing. D1 I found Silver Dust, so I think it’ll go to one of the people who votes me.
Kasimir he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: FTR, don’t blame you or anyone else who votes me o7 I’d do the same in your shoes. Sad tho Well, for y’all I won’t have to figure out what actually happened Tbf I have a strong feeling I'm gonna be joining you the Night after... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Well, in a V!you world, I am actually more willing to look at the 'didn't send in kill' worlds. I don't disagree it might have been a Shade Expert but the fact we don't see other cases of insanity...IDK. I did argue with Araris (and this is the part that pinged me as weird when I talked about narrative shaping) because the fact he immediately zeroed in on worlds with either didn't send in kill or roleblock felt like he was trying to shape narrative away from a protect world - and suppose that's actually what happened. Then going for the RB gets someone else MLed (potentially.) I am not sure this is an internally consistent scenario because it explodes as soon as protection claims. But YMMV. Question for you guys (anyone reading this.) Odds the Elims withheld the kill to implicate whoever got RBed? I low key think this would not be impossible but I don't feel just anyone would be willing to withhold the kill. 32 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I have a theory about a Shade Expert that protected you, but I’d rather not out the person I think it is if I’m right. If they do claim, I’d appreciate it, but don’t mind them keeping quiet and me dying today tbh. Tbh, if their protect is burned up, having a known Thug still isn't the worst I think. But that's the RB-protect scenario Devo and I were talking about. 14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I actually wouldn’t be surprised of 2-3 Village, don’t know about elims. Main reason for that is multiple Thugs is a decent way to balance a larger elim team, given the outnumber wincon is tough for elims to close out (from my experience). Larger e!team also helps them not get ripped apart by Wrath of the Shades. I had been thinking about this after rereading Archer presenting that theory, if with less reasoning, C1. The fact that Shade Experts can only successfully block once of another decent excuse for a larger number. No indefinite protects. Given that SE protects don't expire until they trigger on contact with an attacker, that requires Elims to also have Wrath padding, beyond just extra numbers, no? The thing with the protection world is that it's not farfetched because selection bias but Araris is not wrong it does require the specific attacker to have had Iron Will to stop the insanity penalty, which is a very specific combination. But E!SE seems fairly OP. Thing I'm struggling with here is that we do know of a Thug - having V!Thugs on top of SE makes sense, but still. A lot of padding even then? Edited to add: 3 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Oh I should probably claim too. I’m a Thief that started with nothing. D1 I found Silver Dust, so I think it’ll go to one of the people who votes me. Entails high Elim incentive to vote you, I see... >> Edited April 29, 2023 by Kasimir
The Unknown Medallion he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 I think I'm going to stay out of this. Aman probably needs to die, but I'll be staying out unless Ash is going to die, since I'd rather one of Mat/Aman die. You know what. Nevermind. Aman.
Mat he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 1 minute ago, Kasimir said: Question for you guys (anyone reading this.) Odds the Elims withheld the kill to implicate whoever got RBed? I low key think this would not be impossible but I don't feel just anyone would be willing to withhold the kill. I think there's a very low liklihood of this given you went insane. Elan confirmed that attacked/protected and attacked/RBd kill both lead to the same result (attacked person going insane), right? Aman seems like the best bet here. Ninjad, I think
Illwei Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 If we're going down this hole then on what kind of team does Aman submit the kill? I feel that this makes Araris a little more village if Aman flips cult.
Amanuensis he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Kasimir said: Given that SE protects don't expire until they trigger on contact with an attacker, that requires Elims to also have Wrath padding, beyond just extra numbers, no? The thing with the protection world is that it's not farfetched because selection bias but Araris is not wrong it does require the specific attacker to have had Iron Will to stop the insanity penalty, which is a very specific combination. But E!SE seems fairly OP. Thing I'm struggling with here is that we do know of a Thug - having V!Thugs on top of SE makes sense, but still. A lot of padding even then? You probably have a firmer grasp of this game, so I’m inclined to agree, having not thought too much about how the specific e!roles/items might shake out. 4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I think there's a very low liklihood of this given you went insane. Elan confirmed that attacked/protected and attacked/RBd kill both lead to the same result (attacked person going insane), right? Aman seems like the best bet here. Ninjad, I think Well there goes my theory lol. Thought Mat was the Shade Expert and he didn’t want to claim too soon because he had no bones left =\ Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis
Elandera she/her Posted April 29, 2023 Author Posted April 29, 2023 Announcement: I missed a rule interaction. If you are roleblocked by White Fox, you will be notified that you cannot take an action the next day.
Kasimir he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 Just now, Matrim's Dice said: I think there's a very low liklihood of this given you went insane. Elan confirmed that attacked/protected and attacked/RBd kill both lead to the same result (attacked person going insane), right? Aman seems like the best bet here. Ninjad, I think Hence asked about withheld the kill. Like, straight-up I will fully admit that it's probably a good thing I can't vote this cycle because it's the LG83 Araris problem come back to haunt me. I don't like to vote bros. I can accept this is the logical course of action but am apparently trying to bloody hard to squirm past it. 3 minutes ago, Illwei said: If we're going down this hole then on what kind of team does Aman submit the kill? I feel that this makes Araris a little more village if Aman flips cult. What would you do. I really don't know. 1 minute ago, Amanuensis said: You probably have a former grasp of this hand, so I’m inclined to agree, havingg not thought too much about how the specific e!roles/items might shake out. IDK if I do, but I was trying to work out the maths to figure the odds of sustaining continued protection of at least one player. At this point, like Devo. I think it's workable but it has to do with something I think most people keep forgetting about lol. 2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Well there goes my theory lol. Thought Mat was the Shade Expert and he didn’t want to claim too soon because he had no bones left =\ RIP. Why was he in Mixed then? For that matter, why is TJ in Mixed and why Better Than Null on Alv? Appreciate JNV being in their own Quokka tier, but also, why?
Amanuensis he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Elandera said: Announcement: I missed a rule interaction. If you are roleblocked by White Fox, you will be notified that you cannot take an action the next day. Even if I live, I can’t thieve a Pallid Mask today. I’m taking Ls left and light Edited April 29, 2023 by Amanuensis
Illwei Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 Aman you are not denying that you're roleblocked, correct?
Kasimir he/him Posted April 29, 2023 Posted April 29, 2023 8 minutes ago, Illwei said: If we're going down this hole then on what kind of team does Aman submit the kill? I feel that this makes Araris a little more village if Aman flips cult. D1 Silver Dust? = Won't Die to Shades No Matter What. Surprised they wouldn't go for someone with Iron Will though. Though as Araris observed, maybe it's difficult to align?
Recommended Posts