Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

[Stick. she/her]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Why not vote Silver for opportunism at that juncture?

Bhai I intended to, I legit accidentally fell asleep with my phone in my hand ._.

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Why not vote Silver for opportunism at that juncture?

Why does doing so reveal themselves?

Cuz there’s no way they don’t save themself- the village win hinges on their survival 

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

Bhai I intended to, I legit accidentally fell asleep with my phone in my hand ._.

Cuz there’s no way they don’t save themself- the village win hinges on their survival 

Of course there's no way they don't save themselves - I'm asking why it's indicative that the beneficiary must be Winz.

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Bhai I intended to, I legit accidentally fell asleep with my phone in my hand ._.

RIP bhai  

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Of course there's no way they don't save themselves - I'm asking why it's indicative that the beneficiary must be Winz.

Why would they vote manip for someone else, any vote manip they make will point towards them or someone they suspect is in the IC anyways, so why waste it on anyone but themselves. The only reason not to save themselves or to save someone else is to create an IKYK.

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Ookla the Unknown said:

Why would they vote manip for someone else, any vote manip they make will point towards them or someone they suspect is in the IC anyways, so why waste it on anyone but themselves. The only reason not to save themselves or to save someone else is to create an IKYK.

Why would you, as Winz, be upfront about your suspects/thoughts anyway? The point is that if you do it, you are basically banning yourself from using VM. The reasonable belief would be that anyone on the opposing train has used it, and given the size of the trains thus far, that's not actually insane.

Winz is perfectly capable of making reads based on the thread.

[Stick. she/her]

True, but it’ll give the elims a nice pool of potential Winziks. Sure, winzik might use their role on players other than themself but they will definitely use it to save themself. 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why would you, as Winz, be upfront about your suspects/thoughts anyway?

...Because you'd be exed most likely. Really don't understand how you of all people wouldn't understand this.

[Amanuensis he/him]

I dunno if any tie was intentionally engineered. I think most just naturally came together, or because I was nudging things in that direction.

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

True, but it’ll give the elims a nice pool of potential Winziks. Sure, winzik might use their role on players other than themself but they will definitely use it to save themself. 

A...five-player-sized pool? Almost 1/3 the players in this game?

@Haelbarde

Quote

Although I'm disinclined to vote Devo or Kas this turn. And I N1'd TUN last game, so feel like they deserve a pass. Think I'm going to put my vote on Dannex. 

 

I may have asked this before. Why is TUN an explicit mention for you and not the rest of your Baddish tier? Reads enclosed for reference:

 

Quote

Player Vibes
Village
- Strong: Hael
- Moderate:
- Slight: Stick, JNV
Neutral
- Goodish: Fifth, Aman
- Meh: Silvereye (Wind), Mat (Tall), Bookwyrm (Perpetual), Xino (Forgotten)
- Badish: Devo, Nerdy, Kas, Wiz (Myopic), TUN (Unknown), Dannex (Gastro)
Elim
- Slight: 
- Moderate:
- Strong:
Absent
- Infinite, Exotic

 

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

...Because you'd be exed most likely. Really don't understand how you of all people wouldn't understand this.

 

I really don't understand how you don't understand that you can in fact underplay your suspicions, fail to mention them, deliberately sow some misinformation about your thoughts in the IC doc, refuse to show your full hand in the thread. It's an anon doc, and the fact you're typing makes you confirmed Village so no one is going to sus you for it.

 

Edited to add:

 

Quote

C1: 1141hrs
C2: 1256hrs
C3: 1223hrs
C4: 0749hrs

Truly very effective Winzik bait. No one will ever dare to post past...1141hrs, 1223hrs, and 0749hrs SGT!

For reference, rollover is at 1300hrs SGT.

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I dunno if any tie was intentionally engineered. I think most just naturally came together, or because I was nudging things in that direction.

What are the chances every cycle Hael votes in a way that actively works towards ties (if not directly causing one)? Genuine question

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

A...five-player-sized pool? Almost 1/3 the players in this game?

Wait im confused - Where are you getting this number from? 

Edited December 23, 2022 by _Stick_
Typo

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

What are the chances every cycle Hael votes in a way that actively works towards ties (if not directly causing one)? Genuine question

Wait im confused - Where are you getting this number from? 

I'm looking at the average size of trains across cycles. C1 was 6-3, with the train Hael was on being 6. C2 was the infamous 5-3. C3 was 5-4. C4 was also 5-4. We've clumped a lot.

But I'm also interested in how you account for the timing of Hael's votes in your theory - apart from C2, most of them came reasonably early such that you wouldn't expect the thread to remain stagnant. C3 is a borderline case but given C2 EoD, I think only a fool would believe beforehand that the votes would be stable.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I really don't understand how you don't understand that you can in fact underplay your suspicions, fail to mention them, deliberately sow some misinformation about your thoughts in the IC doc, refuse to show your full hand in the thread. It's an anon doc, and the fact you're typing makes you confirmed Village so no one is going to sus you for it.

I agree on the IC doc, but in thread if you vote in discongruance with your stated (underplayed, failed to mention) reads, you will get sussed for it, and you can't exactly say you're Winzik to get out of it. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Kas is saying that any time Wiznik uses their extra vote, it could be the player about to get voted out, or it could be any of the players that voted that same player, or tbh it could even be Wiznik playing mind games breaking a tie in favor of the opposite train. It's not super helpful information unless it's 100% Wiznik saving themself.

I feel all of this is irrelevant since Wiznik hasn't use their extra vote once. Maybe the elims were looking out for things like that, but with all the trains we've been on for cycles flipping green, I don't really think Hael or anyone else intentionally formed ties-- or even if the did, that it doesn't really matter.

I'm voting Hael because I trust Kas, want to trust Stick, don't care about TUN, and village read every other low-active for one reason or another.

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

I agree on the IC doc, but in thread if you vote in discongruance with your stated (underplayed, failed to mention) reads, you will get sussed for it, and you can't exactly say you're Winzik to get out of it. 

Really?

In a game where if you have a strong sense that a player is IC and you are a Villager, actively voicing this gets them NKed? In a game where painting a player you don't actually suspect with some sus could very well keep them alive - especially if they're your wincon?

Edited to add:

TBH the more I argue with TUN the more I feel he's Village, and that worries me. I do feel E!TUN tends to be somewhat - detached.

Edited to add 2:

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I feel all of this is irrelevant since Wiznik hasn't use their extra vote once. Maybe the elims were looking out for things like that, but with all the trains we've been on for cycles flipping green, I don't really think Hael or anyone else intentionally formed ties-- or even if the did, that it doesn't really matter.

Ngl if I were Winzik and on at EoD, I'd totally have put that extra vote as you requested at EoD. Trolling potential here is too damned high.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

(4) Hael: Stick, Aman, Bookwyrm, TUN, 
(1) TUN: Kas,

Is this right?

ED1T:

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Ngl if I were Winzik and on at EoD, I'd totally have put that extra vote as you requested at EoD. Trolling potential here is too damned high.

That was my dream haha

Edited December 23, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

(4) Hael: Stick, Aman, Bookwyrm, TUN, 
(1) TUN: Kas,

Is this right?
 

I don't think I have a standing vote at all at present. But I could be wrong. God knows I've just hit C2.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

But how do you tell the difference between an elim mistake and an Winzik lie? You can't, and there's more elims than there are Winziks, so might as well vote them.

Edit: Besides tone and since when is that always accurate.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Ookla the Unknown

[Amanuensis he/him]

Then it's,

(4) Hael: Stick, Aman, Bookwyrm, TUN, 

...I think.

I'm locked into a <Hael, ???> and <Stick, ???> world.

I'm just worried if this was the point in killing Mat(t).

[Stick. she/her]

21 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

But I'm also interested in how you account for the timing of Hael's votes in your theory - apart from C2, most of them came reasonably early such that you wouldn't expect the thread to remain stagnant. C3 is a borderline case but given C2 EoD, I think only a fool would believe beforehand that the votes would be stable.

Yes, but Hael was also attentively present at all EoDs, watching. The ties were broken in the literal last-minutes in C2, C3, C4 (thanks Mat). C1 was a case of wrong VCs, and iirc your last-minute vote was cast as a tiebreaker right? 

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

But how do you tell the difference between an elim mistake and an Winzik lie? You can't, and there's more elims than there are Winziks, so might as well vote them.

Edit: Besides tone and since when is that always accurate.

You don't. You do vote them. But you don't cast killing votes in isolation. You can cast query votes in isolation but your reads are always based on everything else put together. Some of my worst reads are when I focus on one aspect of the player and neglect the entire body of evidence - it's fine when you're pressuring them and wanting to get more info from the thread, less fine when you are making the call. Sure, tone isn't always accurate, but nothing in a game is 100% accurate except for a confirmed Village Seeker role.

It's like how Villagers vote for and defend Elims - Mat did that too. I probably have at least once during the course of this game. You might as well generalise the question: how do you tell the difference between an Elim and a Villager making a mistake/playing deliberately spicy? It's the same fundamental question that drives this game.

It doesn't detract from the strategic value of doing so, and is basically same problem different skin for the Village, and does mean it is difficult to play. It's like when you're a Tyrian V!Seeker, right? If you're too accurate and too swift to vote the guy the contact will eventually reveal as Evil, or if your sus/trusts map too well/pre-empt the scans, then you're going to be in hot soup. It's a very thin line to finesse.

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Yes, but Hael was also attentively present at all EoDs, watching. The ties were broken in the literal last-minutes in C2, C3, C4 (thanks Mat). C1 was a case of wrong VCs, and iirc your last-minute vote was cast as a tiebreaker right? 

Your theory basically says he voted in order to induce ties - my point is it'd take an incredible amount of faith for him to believe the tie would persist, given the majority of the times he voted at. Whether or not the ties were broken in the literal last minutes does not matter - the last I checked, Hael doesn't have foresight. We're only asking: why does an Elim trying to bait Winzik vote so early on (except on C2) when there is little chance the tie will remain that way? That's ineffective for a bait. Your response is that he was on at EoD. My response is yes, and so were others - TUN has consistently lurked at EoD. You can argue that TUN didn't vote for ties. Sure, but then we're back to my point: not only do we then have to explain why a baiting vote comes so early, but we also have to explain how he imagines he would not look sus as hell for forcing a last minute tie, especially if a Villager flips, especially if Winzik acts, (remember, past C2, Silver is dead! Does E!Hael have a teammate left who can actively carry the team to victory by sacrificing him here?) and how he imagines Winzik would see and act when a significant number of the ...lynchees? Ye god what is the term even - were basically not present, and he could probably see that even at the time of his vote, e.g. Xino, Nerdy, Fifth. Why would he realistically expect Winzik to respond then?

He voted to cause a tie right in the middle of Fifth jumping trains like an Ataru stylist, you being present, Aman voting Nerdy, my voting Nerdy and screaming about having five minutes to get my vote right. If he votes and causes a last minute tie at EoD, righting things, then Winzik would also not have time to react. And he would know one player would flip Village, making his actions incredibly suspicious. It just doesn't seem very effective a play to me. I think I'd be more willing to buy it in a world where Mat was one of the players in the tie.

I say this even as at this point of the re-read, I'm sold on V!Stick meaning my PoE shrinks to <Hael, TUN>...

Lemme flip your question around, Stick. Odds that at least one Elim is on at rollover each cycle to watch for all players online in case they can ID Winzik?

I have reached the infamous Stick post:

Quote

Of the <Aman, Silvereye, Hael> group I want to look at Silvereye first - who said that they thought their one post was very villagery? >> I think it was Mat? Anywho I don't agree, in fact I think that post was extremely suspicious - it instigated my vote retraction and made me very stressed for a while. Here let me pull it up for reference:

In retrospect, I think I am okay with my Village read on Stick; this is stronger language than I remembered when I was talking to Mat. Here, Stick isn't pulling any punches. This isn't distancing language. This is either: bussing language (in which case, I don't see why Stick wouldn't have voted Silver, or Silver wouldn't have shown up for the threadbrawl), or just genuine.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Am I naive to hope for a 2-man Hael/Silver team? 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Am I naive to hope for a 2-man Hael/Silver team? 

Probably. I can get behind that hope though. Let's let this be over with.

[Kasimir he/him]

9 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

Probably. I can get behind that hope though. Let's let this be over with.

11 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Am I naive to hope for a 2-man Hael/Silver team? 

If it's a two-man team, it's probably a three-man IC in which case we're screwed the moment Winzik dies... (JNV and Devo both referenced numbers that didn't significantly differ C1. I imagine they must have salted it, but still...)

And if Stick is right about Xino being an activity kill...

Then we hope real hard Winzik had the sense to feign inactivity because otherwise we're basically very quickly screwed :|

Edited to add:

Quote

My logic is Silver, Bookwyrm, Nerdy, Infinite, and Almond are all very unlikely to have noticed and decided on that kill. They could all be elim but there's at least 1 elim outside this grouping.

 

Sigh. I don't substantively disagree with this. This is the kill pattern problem again I think.

Quote

 Kind of would expect e!Silvereye's teammates to have noticed that I didn't list his vote though. Not opposed to TUN but don't feel that strongly.

People who didn't notice: <Aman, Hael, Kas, Mat>

Asterisked for Hael due to his noticing earlier then getting lost with everyone who calculated it was a tie. Not sure E!Hael thinks to make this mistake? Bah. So much secondguessing this game ;-;

Edited December 23, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

I think mistakes can happen regardless of alignment. I wouldn't let that miscount indicate anything

[Kasimir he/him]

Hael:

Pre-ISO, meh on Silver, intended to join Stick on TUN:

Quote

Going to post this now, and dive back in. I appreciate I'm running low on time though. Glancing at the actual vote tally, on the whole the choices feel weird. Silvereye was the other iso I needed to do, so I'll do that too. Before those two iso, I'd be feeling more included to join Stick on TUN, of any of the existing trains - I'd been meh about Silvereye last I looked, I do have Nerdy as elim reading, but... it's just really not that fun an intro to SE to kill them so early in an early game, so more out of principle I'd rather avoid it, otherwise that is probably my preferred choice from a suspicion stand point. Well, actually I'd rather Almond, but same problem, and they're otherwise not an option today.

I....don't disagree but that feels like a bunch of LHF choices minus Silver. Not sure about TUN.

16 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I think mistakes can happen regardless of alignment. I wouldn't let that miscount indicate anything

Tbh the reason I flagged it was that it made that quiet nagging voice in my head give you a Village point anyway  That and one or two other junctures in my notes. Just for completeness' sake I suppose. Though my pool seems to be functionally <Hael, TUN> at this juncture, maybe Bookwyrm if I give in to the fact some of his posts rub me the wrong way despite my read ._.

I'm aware it's not likely to shift where the thread wants to go and I'm not approaching it from this perspective this time. Just want to give it my best shot at making sense of this.

Edited to add:

Sort of like this, tbh. Regardless of alignment I guess.

Edited to add 2:

C4 - TUN breaks a 2/2 between him and Nerdy to vote Nerdy. Self-explanatory but hmm. Bookwyrm stacks onto Nerdy subsequently, making it 4/2. If somehow our team is Bookwyrm/Silver/TUN imma just...

Edited December 23, 2022 by Kasimir

[Kasimir he/him]

Sigh. Hael. 

Vod, meh gar Mando'ad, ni gra'tua.