Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

[danex]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

I think their takes rub me the wrong way, even if they are probably alright in theory.

Huh? xD Is this directed at me or Kas? Kas did provide a read on you

obviously at kas
meant *reasoning* for a read my bad

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I think their takes rub me the wrong way, even if they are probably alright in theory.

Oh?

7 minutes ago, ookla the gastrointestinal said:

said the person who hasn't posted a dannex read yet.

i think we're all more interested in yours.

I have posted a Danex read  It's Evil.

I don't really care about whether people are interested in my Danex reads - I know why I lean Evil on you, I'm more interested in what Stick thinks.

Edited to add:

@_Stick_ - What do you make of Mat's claim? :eyes:

Edited December 18, 2022 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

22 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Oh?

Also LG90 vibes

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add:

@_Stick_ - What do you make of Mat's claim? :eyes

I think I want to chalk it up to NAI  I don't think his claim narrows the potential!winziks pool down for the elims becuase real!winzik could very well claim like that in hopes of it clearing them of actually being Winzik. A non-winzik villager could claim like that to attempt to bait the NK. An elim could claim like that to gauge thread reaction to find real!winzik. So this should only be NAI and nothing else. 

Side note: Leaning village on TUN

Dannex

 

[Kasimir]

4 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Also LG90 vibes

I think I want to chalk it up to NAI  I don't think his claim narrows the potential!winziks pool down for the elims becuase real!winzik could very well claim like that in hopes of it clearing them of actually being Winzik. A non-winzik villager could claim like that to attempt to bait the NK. An elim could claim like that to gauge thread reaction to find real!winzik. So this should only be NAI and nothing else. 

Side note: Leaning village on TUN

Dannex

Imma be honest this was not the response I was expecting when I went fishing and I have no one else to blame for my surprise but myself  

Interested in why you V!lean TUN - I have a very, very mild E!lean on TUN on further re-reading. Largely to do with TUN's seeming disinterest in the discussion he himself tried to open, but that being said, I am also not sure that E!TUN would be so bold as to want to auto-vote Mat or Dannex for the Winzik claim, so I suppose I'm willing to revise upwards back to null again

[Stick.]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Imma be honest this was not the response I was expecting when I went fishing and I have no one else to blame for my surprise but myself  

did i break something =D 

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Interested in why you V!lean TUN - I have a very, very mild E!lean on TUN on further re-reading. Largely to do with TUN's seeming disinterest in the discussion he himself tried to open, but that being said, I am also not sure that E!TUN would be so bold as to want to auto-vote Mat or Dannex for the Winzik claim, so I suppose I'm willing to revise upwards back to null again

tbh I just like their posts. Why do they seem disinterested in the discussion to you? They shared their own opinion on both the elim team size and the talking in the village doc thing when prompting the thread to discuss those topics.

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

did i break something =D 

Yes and no, not particularly, but in general being surprised is usually a good thing, especially this early into the game!  

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

tbh I just like their posts. Why do they seem disinterested in the discussion to you? They shared their own opinion on both the elim team size and the talking in the village doc thing when prompting the thread to discuss those topics.

He did, but he also felt rather disengaged from it besides responding to you - I'd normally expect a bit more interest. I suppose what I'd say is this: are you sharing your opinion or trying to start a discussion? If you are trying to share your opinion, fine, but you normally don't frame it as an open question. If you are interested in trying to start a discussion, why is it that the only thing you are interested in responding to is the comment on Inner Circle size?

Something like that feels to me like you're talking for the sake of talking and looking productive, rather than an interest in solving, with a potential side of "looks like you're having difficulty formulating suspicions" and it partly informs my negative reaction to Danex at this current point in time, next to Danex's defensiveness, cf. good old "you have to have a reason to vote for me!" 

Like sure, it's C1 p1, I am absolutely hoping to refine my thoughts/reads as the NAs return and chime in, but I might as well just throw out my thoughts and give them something to D: over when they get on  

Either way, I am not fully sure that vote comes from E!TUN. Fairly bold move for an Elim. Probably null overall, but eh, do not feel strongly about it.

[Stick.]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

He did, but he also felt rather disengaged from it besides responding to you - I'd normally expect a bit more interest. I suppose what I'd say is this: are you sharing your opinion or trying to start a discussion? If you are trying to share your opinion, fine, but you normally don't frame it as an open question. If you are interested in trying to start a discussion, why is it that the only thing you are interested in responding to is the comment on Inner Circle size?

I see where you're coming from, but I guess I disagree that it is suspicious behaviour. 

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Like sure, it's C1 p1

p2 

I actually don't have a stance on TUN's vote. I could see both E!TUN and V!TUN voting that way, so it doesn't impact my read on them.

[Kasimir]

24 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I see where you're coming from, but I guess I disagree that it is suspicious behaviour. 

I think my point is that I'm not calling it suspicious behaviour: I'm saying it seems performative/to emerge from a mindset where you're not really in it to solve the game or have difficulty doing so, and that reads more E to me than V. That's distinctive from being suspicious behaviour itself.

25 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I actually don't have a stance on TUN's vote. I could see both E!TUN and V!TUN voting that way, so it doesn't impact my read on them.

Hmm. Then what about his posts do you like?

[Fifth Scholar]

This really is a QF, with how fast things move, huh.  No rest for the wicked who try to get to sleep before midnight. Probably fair though  

@Kasimir what is A:tR

@_Stick_ good to have another chance to play alongside you  how’s the new hedge coming along? You seem to have built it quite high already, hopefully you remember to trim it so the branches don’t get in the road  

[Kasimir]

21 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

@Kasimir what is A:tR

Avalon: the Resistance. You've seen a variant of it in one of my games you IMed, and played in the other one - QF40 and MR51. There's a similar dynamic with another of my games that you've also, coincidentally, played - MR61  In Avalon, Village has a role known as the Merlin who knows all of the Evil players. The issue with Merlin is you have TMI, but must blend in with the Village because if you die to the Assassin, the Village immediately loses. Among other complications. 

Long story short, while Devo rebuked Silho for claiming Jedi or softclaiming Jedi in that MR, that sort of move is actually highly encouraged in A:tR - A:tR meta is rife with Merlin claims because the costs of losing the Merlin are so high that you never ever want the Elims/Mordred's Minions to get a clear bead on the Merlin. There are reasons A:tR meta doesn't translate well to SE, some of which I suspect are sociological, but that's neither here nor there. I admit I have given the matter some thought in the week of sign-ups but don't find A:tR meta too promising here for a number of reasons I shan't go into.

21 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

@_Stick_ good to have another chance to play alongside you  how’s the new hedge coming along? You seem to have built it quite high already, hopefully you remember to trim it so the branches don’t get in the road  

Interested in where you find her hedgy :eyes:

I think the main strategic thought I have at this point is that I believe the most promising strategy on our parts is to be noisy and aggressive. While we can't guarantee no theoretical overlap between threats and IC/Winzik, I think it's important to place the Elims in a situation where they either have to exert themselves in thread to keep the lynch from drifting their way, or to actively consider using the NK on a player pressuring them in the thread to try to ease things a little.

The world we least want is the one in which they feel they can coast along, quietly observing the Inner Circle doc and deciding who Winzik/IC might be. Forcing them to have to use the NK for more normal suspicion/threat kills seems to me to be the best thing we can do for Winz/IC right now, apart from muddying the waters.

Edited to add:

@Fifth Scholar When I say rife with claims, it's not uncommon for a player to be grilled about their voting patterns, particularly if accurate, and for the player to simply brave it out by exclaiming they are the Merlin, so of course they know. I think once at the table we had five Merlin claims in a row to the point an exasperated new Village player asked if the real Merlin could just stand up. (I don't think he fully understood the rules at that point...)

Edited December 18, 2022 by Kasimir

[danex]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

next to Danex's defensiveness, cf. good old "you have to have a reason to vote for me!" 

1. putting something in quotes and labeling it as stereotypical/cliche doesn’t make it illogical and/or untrue

2. didn’t say that, just asked for a reason on an unexplained vote. the fact that it happened to be a vote on me is irrelevant

strongly disliking Kas’s posts so far, but let’s see how i feel in the morning. he seems way too confident for this early in the game.

Edited December 18, 2022 by ookla the gastrointestinal

[Stick.]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Hmm. Then what about his posts do you like?

Their posts just don't seem like E!TUN's - LG90 comes to mind as their most recent elim game and I don't think their posts that game were even remotely as game-relevant. I've just gone back to the thread to recheck, and none of TUN's posts LG90 D1 were directly related to the game. As in, not even mechanics related. Half were single-line comments about whatever, and the other half were them sharing their opinion on voting D1 in general. So them being proactive about game-related discussion is a good indication, IMO.

23 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

@_Stick_ good to have another chance to play alongside you

Likewise! 

25 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

how’s the new hedge coming along? You seem to have built it quite high already, hopefully you remember to trim it so the branches don’t get in the road  

I'm glad you noticed

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, ookla the gastrointestinal said:

1. put something in quotes and labeling it as stereotypical/cliche doesn’t make it illogical and/or untrue

Funny though. Are we interested in logic here, or are we interested in finding Elims here?

If you are interested in logic, you may get yourself a time machine and sign up for the Introductory Logic course, or the Advanced Logic course I tutored for at university. If you are interested in finding Elims, show it.

The fact that having reasons is good Village practice does not mean that the failure to provide reasons is indicative of: A. no reasons at all, or B. that no reasons exists or can exist. And if you've been paying attention rather than immediately being defensive, you would have noticed I have more or less already outlined the reasons informing my suspicion of you.

7 minutes ago, ookla the gastrointestinal said:

2. didn’t say that, just asked for a reason on an unexplained vote. the fact that it happened to be a vote on me is irrelevant

So why don't you ask for reasons for basically every other unexplained vote on p1?

7 minutes ago, ookla the gastrointestinal said:

strongly disliking Kas’s posts so far, but let’s see how i feel in the morning. he seems way to confident for this early in the game.

You're welcome to look at how strongly I phrased things in LG91, the game immediately preceding this, in which I was a Villager.

Of course, if you're Evil, I suppose you wouldn't be interested in doing so 

Edited to add:

4 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Their posts just don't seem like E!TUN's - LG90 comes to mind as their most recent elim game and I don't think their posts that game were even remotely as game-relevant. I've just gone back to the thread to recheck, and none of TUN's posts LG90 D1 were directly related to the game. As in, not even mechanics related. Half were single-line comments about whatever, and the other half were them sharing their opinion on voting D1 in general. So them being proactive about game-related discussion is a good indication, IMO.

A few things:

1. I like this point and I want to check up on it more because my impression of TUN is a player who basically keeps using mech to get into the game. I'm probably going to just pull up a list of E!TUN games to run a comparison.

2. Question for you. Does this mean you V!read TUN for these reasons prior to checking his playhistory?

Edited December 18, 2022 by Kasimir
pronoun

[Stick.]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Question for you. Does this mean you V!read TUN for these reasons prior to checking his playhistory?

No  I was pretty sure they weren't this proactive as elim but I needed to check to confirm so I don't look like a clown if I'm completely wrong

edit:

I mean yes. I did.

Edited December 18, 2022 by _Stick_

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

No  I was pretty sure they weren't this proactive as elim but I needed to check to confirm so I don't look like a clown if I'm completely wrong

He has eight Elim games. This is a fairly narrow query. I could do this without wanting to commit seppuku.........

Yeah okay lesgo I guess.

Honestly I am still more sus of Danex than TUN at this point, and I bring the TUN point up despite having him as a null, but if I can I actually also want to run a Danex study - I don't have a strong memory of how E!Danex responds to pressure and while the overreaction is notable, I want to see Danex parameters too. How many E games does he have?

Four?

HAHAHAHAHAHA LESGO I GUESS

[Haelbarde]

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

It would be but I can think of one or two scenarios where it's worthwhile to do so, e.g. Hal.

Who, me?  

6 hours ago, ookla the gastrointestinal said:

If a piece of information does not help the Elim team, it should be shared with the Village.

Well, sure. But you've got to be careful, as just because something is already known to the eliminators, doesn't mean that they can't learn things from who/how/where that information is disclosed to the larger village. Always a good idea to think through any information you disclose, as to what information might be gleaned by others. I'm quite wary of the attempts to Spartacus for example, as those rarely work as intended and tend to be quite the treasure trove of information.

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

...Anyone interested in more pazaak?

Always. Don't have time/energy to RP right now, but figure it may be easier to RP a game knowing the turns. So I played the next match in the spoiler.

Spoiler

10, 2, 4, 7 + play card, 2, 10

[10] [2] [4]
[7] [Flip 2&4] [2]
[10] [?] [?]

[Flip 2&4] [X] [X] [X]

Anyway, been a long day, and need to get some sleep, so I should be around in about 8 hours, so will actually think about the initial susses people have been throwing around then. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

7 hours ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

I don't particularly see the correlation, although it is kinda likely for some inexplicable reason.

The number of elims and inner circle members would have been balanced against each other. Probably within one of each other.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

There are reasons A:tR meta doesn't translate well to SE, some of which I suspect are sociological, but that's neither here nor there.

interested in where you find her hedgy :eyes:

Notably that nobody dies in Avalon.

You quoted the sections where she said she could see Mat's claim coming from any role and TUN's vote coming from either alignment.

[The Wandering Wizard]

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

...Anyone interested in more pazaak?

Yes.

It's very strange seeing all the village FUD to disguise the inner circle. Very good, but still strange.

[JNV]

I just reread the rules and turns out I misread Winziks vote thing wrong I kinda thought it was an at will double vote nope its a whole other vote can go anywhere do anything thats cool

This is actually a pretty neat game cause like our numbers dont matter its not a numbers game its not a race against the clock the elims are also trying to find a hidden minority Id kinda assume slightly more Inner Circle than evils cause we can hit the Inner Circle the evils cant hit evil that information isnt really helpful is it oh well 

7 hours ago, ookla the gastrointestinal said:

Ah but some of us aren't in the inner circle. 

I will always operate under the following principle as a villager:
If a piece of information does not help the Elim team, it should be shared with the Village.

I believe I have expressed this maaaaaany times, so should be no surprise. 

If they realize they've revealed themselves in the IC doc. 

You seem weirdly serious this time around like maybe this is my internal model messing up but I dont think you usually talk like this ok I looked back at some of your older games both good and evil and like you sound different to both so I dont really know maybe youre just taking this game really seriously for some reason

@Fifth Scholar hi hi hello good to see you heres a quokka gif

Spoiler

And like anyone else who wants to be greeted by a cute quokka consider yourself @ed as well

And now some RP

Jennel stepped around some tables carefully, trying to dodge people's feet. They knew from experience that even lightly crushing toes of any species but varvax could break them, so they usually stuck to their table in the front, but there was a game of pazaak going on. They loved pazaak. "Deal me in? If you've already started, I'll catch the next round." 

[Stick.]

2 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

Who, me?  

Well, sure. But you've got to be careful, as just because something is already known to the eliminators, doesn't mean that they can't learn things from who/how/where that information is disclosed to the larger village. Always a good idea to think through any information you disclose, as to what information might be gleaned by others. I'm quite wary of the attempts to Spartacus for example, as those rarely work as intended and tend to be quite the treasure trove of information.

Always. Don't have time/energy to RP right now, but figure it may be easier to RP a game knowing the turns. So I played the next match in the spoiler.

  Reveal hidden contents

10, 2, 4, 7 + play card, 2, 10

[10] [2] [4]
[7] [Flip 2&4] [2]
[10] [?] [?]

[Flip 2&4] [X] [X] [X]

Anyway, been a long day, and need to get some sleep, so I should be around in about 8 hours, so will actually think about the initial susses people have been throwing around then. 

Bad gut feeling about this post.

11 minutes ago, JNV said:

You seem weirdly serious this time around like maybe this is my internal model messing up but I dont think you usually talk like this ok I looked back at some of your older games both good and evil and like you sound different to both so I dont really know maybe youre just taking this game really seriously for some reason

I took a look at LG90 for E!Dannex tells as well - I don't know if I'd say they're being more serious now, but what do you think about their defensiveness here? Kas noted that Dannex tends be defensive as elim. Edit: Nope I misread that post so Kas didn't say that but curious to know what you make of Dannex's defensiveness anyway

Edited December 18, 2022 by _Stick_

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

You quoted the sections where she said she could see Mat's claim coming from any role and TUN's vote coming from either alignment.

TUN yes - Mat wasn't, and that was explicitly why I asked her, because that is explicitly my view on Mat. She's actually V!reading TUN on the basis of his posts, which is a lot more definite than I got from Stick last game. It's a good first look to me anyway. As for Mat, I can see a Village reason for this, and I note that I GMed MR61 where Mat explicitly mourned the fact he didn't get to pull this off in the MR because he was pre-empted. I think that alone should make any reasonable player reluctant to assign a read to Mat on that basis. Would you disagree?

23 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I took a look at LG90 for E!Dannex tells as well - I don't know if I'd say they're being more serious now, but what do you think about their defensiveness here? Kas noted that Dannex tends be defensive as elim.

I am doing an analysis of E!Dannex right now, but long story short is I actually am not sure E!Dannex is this confrontational this early (substantiating evidence to come when I've finished reviewing all his four E!games - on QF57 now and also watching World Cup) but there are some other points that still leave me leaning E on Dannex - I'll flag them later, but note they include difficulty generating suspicions (he defaults to rigid heuristics.) 

I'm going to say this now even though everyone will ignore this after/if I die: E!Dannex is not easily found by kill analysis because he will explicitly lie about his Elim meta. That's one of my takeaway points from this analysis. Or at least, he will frame it as if it isn't, e.g. "Why would any Elim kill Tani for voting on them" when that's the kill order he basically put in. It's true he didn't but it's also false because he considered that element and didn't care anyway. E!Dannex is found by opportunistic voting patterns, and poor thread engagement. It ramps up later in the game, potentially as he feels more comfortable for killing a few proactive players. He tends to be found quite handily by the TJ Principle and his lack of Village enthusiasm, as far as I can identify. I think that's worth noting.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Myopic said:

Yes.

Later. Want to finish analysis first, sorry >> And World Cup. And pazaak code... But yes I have automated part of it.

@_Stick_ - I've also found one E!TUN game with mech analysis, happy to see if you disagree with the flow, but Dannex is currently under threat and I'm more interested in getting Dannex right as a result, will do the quick and dirty on TUN after that.

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Notably that nobody dies in Avalon.

To be honest, no. Yes, in part, but meta isn't effective if one person is doing it and there isn't the collective heuristic. If it's an outlier, then it only serves to confuse and distract. Or the Elims decide they like to FAFO.

MESSI SCORED MY ENTIRE NEIGHBOURHOOD WAS ROARING I COULD HEAR THE PEN

GO ARGENTINA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited to add: Tbh the energy from Argentina is incredible right now. Hoping Messi gets his trophy, France already has theirs  

EDITED TO ADD: ALVAREX MACALLISTER DIMARIA HOLY CHULL WHAT THAT RUN 2-0 I KNOW IT'S A TYPO BUT SURE HE CAN BE KING

Edited December 18, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis]

I'm awake. I'm Village. I have two assignments left before I'm completely free until 2023.

'Tis a good day.

Declaring Stick as my ride-or-die for today. IMO she's not hedging. Just not jumping to extreme conclusions about some player's alignments for fairly small things that can be explained by V or E. She's doing the thing I would do as Village & I appreciate that. Especially since I currently feel like being lazy this game

(Noting the noticing of Devo answering for Hael on the hedging thing.)

(Noting Hael's last post ending with a "I'ma be back" accountability thing which I see myself do a lot more when evil + Stick's gut not loving the post either)

(Noting Hael's completely naked vote of me at the start of the game)

[Consideration]

...

Dannnex

ED1T:

Oh and @JNV ty for the quokka

Edited December 18, 2022 by Amanuensis

[JNV]

13 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Bad gut feeling about this post.

I took a look at LG90 for E!Dannex tells as well - I don't know if I'd say they're being more serious now, but what do you think about their defensiveness here? Kas noted that Dannex tends be defensive as elim.

Ive noticed like a few similarities to the LG90 thing like they did sorta shade Kasimir and epople who suspected them they shaded the methodology not the argument sorta thing and Im trying to find village games where theyre getitng shaded for comparison hold on ok QF62 they seemed chill about being voted said they made sense as an infovote in QF58 they were chill and jokey about it and such LG82 they were less jokey but they didnt say the argument was invalid or anything they were trying to bribe their way out of it with what looks like lies Im trying to find one where theyre village or evil getting voted D1 but I kinda have to go now um you know what I always suspect Danex theres no force on this earth that could make me not always suspect Danex so yeah I feel like I might be reading into things to justifyh it but I dont know if I can be on later so Danex bye bye see you later

5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh and @JNV ty for the quokka

Youre welcome here have another one

Spoiler

 

[The Unknown Ajah]

Mat.

[Szeth_Pancakes]

1/4 of the way through the turn! Here’s a complimentary VC:

Spoiler

Aman (1): Hael

Kas (1): Dannnnnex

Dannnnnex (4): Kas, Stick, Aman, JNV

Edited December 18, 2022 by Ookla the Omniscient