Long Game 90: Undiluted Powers

[Mat he/him]

Just now, The Unknown Novel said:

How did you do this?

@EveryoneExceptTUN, 

I think it's white text and black highlight :P.

[Cinnamon]

2 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

How did you do this?

@EveryoneExceptTUN, 

It is just text that they highlighted. 

Wow, I just finished reading yesterday’s thread and … dammm I missed a lot. 
 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Cinnamon
Edit to avoid double posting

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think it's white text and black highlight :P.

Actually, I found the Hex number of the real pinging function and highlighted it that color :P.

[+Whysper she/her]

37 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Actually, I found the Hex number of the real pinging function and highlighted it that color :P.

That's extremely clever

[Archer he/him]

3 hours ago, Illwei said:

of course i couldn't have done it without my village buddies silver and shining :).

:'(

2 hours ago, Whysper said:

• Archer/Dannex 

When I started the round, under no pressure, I was fully prepared to murder Dannex and held that approach until it was clear it wasn't going to happen. 

I'll admit I didn't expect Archivist to flip evil at all, or for Silvereye to be village. But I'll lean into the suspicious vibes and think through whether skipping a Coinshot kill tonight would be beneficial. 

We have 10 players, 3 lock village, 4 questionable villagers, and 3 elims. 

An NK takes us to 2/4:3. Coinshot goes to 2/3:3. 

Mix goes to 2/3:3 or 2/2:3. 

Then it goes to 1/3:3 or 1/2:3. I can't find the elim wincon but let's call 1/2:3 a functional loss. Whereas only making one Coinshot kill gives us 4:3. The argument wouldn't be for skipping a kill the Night before exlo, but for doing it this Night so we have the results of the exe to work from. 

But the risk is the Coinshot being NKed so they should probably take the shot. To Cin, the suspect pool is me, Mat, Whysper, TUN, Danex, Bookwyrm. 

Mat didn't help Archivist survive when they thought it was tied, which is a point in their favor. I still think TUN is village. With Mar out of the picture, v!Books looks pretty likely. I'm friendly. Soooo Whysper or Danex are looking pretty shootable :3

[+Whysper she/her]

28 minutes ago, Archer said:

Mat didn't help Archivist survive when they thought it was tied, which is a point in their favor.

Unless the person he thought they were tied with is also Elim  

EDIT 1:

Though thinking that through again, I suppose he should have just took a stand on one and bussed them. Nevermind.  

EDIT 2:

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Vote Tally:
Archivist (4): Illwei, Shining, Silver, Archer
Archer (3): Whysper, TUN, Dannex
Silver (1): Mat

Actually that does bring up a good point about Mat's vote, which he left on Silver. If Mat is E, he would probably have went on Archivist as well since he was going down already. Even if Archer is V, Mat wouldn't risk a tie to attempt a 50-50 shot at saving Archivist because it would look bad if the random went to Archer and he flipped V.

EDIT 3:

Okay, so if I were to assume Mat is V, I get down to these teams.

• Archer-TUN-Bookwyrm 

• Dannex-TUN-Bookwyrm 

 

Edited November 3, 2022 by Whysper
more thoughts :)

[Archer he/him]

14 minutes ago, Whysper said:

Actually that does bring up a good point about Mat's vote, which he left on Silver. If Mat is E, he would probably have went on Archivist as well since he was going down already. Even if Archer is V, Mat wouldn't risk a tie to attempt a 50-50 shot at saving Archivist because it would look bad if the random went to Archer and he flipped V.

Counterpoint: it was 8v:4e. Getting a mix and NK leads to 6v:4e. With a bad Coinshot attack it's 5:4, which is winnable with a hammer. Additionally, Mat thought it was tied, which would have reduced his odds of getting there to 50% from 100% if he added his vote against me. Given my recent souring on him, he had an easy route to justify his vote, so I don't see why e!he wouldn't. 

To respond to the e-e theory, I simply wouldn't bring an elim teammate into exe contention in that situation. I'd bus if the odds of them dying were zero, but not if I blew it and their cover was intact. 

Quote

 

ohohohoho
everything makes sense now
archer was giving me weird vibes with his arguments against me earlier
and now i can completely see why.
Bookwyrm
Archer

Edit: woah my page didn't refresh
what the heck is all this
sudden archivist train what
why does this feel like a hammer

 

Bold is mine. Y'all still sure dannex is village? I put it to you that I was the preferred mix and Danex was protective of Archivist. Same arguments apply from earlier about them easily clearing them - a null is a functional clear in their PoE.

[+Whysper she/her]

15 minutes ago, Archer said:

Additionally, Mat thought it was tied, which would have reduced his odds of getting there to 50% from 100% if he added his vote against me. Given my recent souring on him, he had an easy route to justify his vote, so I don't see why e!he wouldn't. 

I was kind of assuming that if he were E, he would have known better that it wasn't tied actually. I'd think he'd have his partners telling him if he himself were confused.

EDIT 1:

15 minutes ago, Archer said:

Bold is mine. Y'all still sure dannex is village? I put it to you that I was the preferred mix and Danex was protective of Archivist. Same arguments apply from earlier about them easily clearing them - a null is a functional clear in their PoE.

I don't think anyone has him lock village. He's been staying in PoEs. And you are right, that looks bad and like a possible attempt to save Archivist if you are V. And I do still think you and Dannex aren't E-E.

EDIT 2:

Man, is the team coming down to basically Dannex-TUN-Bookwyrm?

Edited November 3, 2022 by Whysper
replying about Dannex

[danex he/him]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

To Cin, the suspect pool is me, Mat, Whysper, TUN, Danex, Bookwyrm. 

Why are shining and silver clear?

[+Whysper she/her]

21 minutes ago, dannnnnnex said:

Why are shining and silver clear?

Because they helped vote out Archivist when we would have otherwise lost the game if there was another V execution. Which should have been possible if they piled onto another existing wagon. Unless all the existing wagons were Elim I guess.  

[Cinnamon]

Hey I am still sick, so my brain is not all here but, I think it would be wise to shoot someone tonight, though I am not sure who, if I kill badly, it’s probably over so some insight would be appreciated.

Also, I just want to put it out there that I don’t  think Archer is elim, I am really sorry Archer, I didn’t realise the whole PM nonsense would make people suspect you, that was not the intention, for those who were asking for more details here is a short summary of our conversation. Archer feel free to contradict me if you think anything is wrong or I’ve forgotten important details.

Me: hmm I think I can trust you, care to give me advice on who to shoot? 
im thinking maybe Illwei, or maybe Book, I think I’ll leave them alone though, because all their “suspicious” things can be explained by newness. Illwei sent me a really weird PM so I am suspicious of them.  (To be clear I trust Illwei now)

Archer:

Louder players usually are more likely than to get exed by the vill or NKed.

Coinshots should kill the ones who are too quiet to get themselves killed. I’d pick JNV, they are hard to read, but they have been suspicious, not suspicious enough however, to get an exe off on them.

Me: (right before rollover) yup, I’ve thought about it and JNV is who I’m going to kill.

Stuff not in quote = paraphrase.

So there wasn’t really anything to it and before I mentioned it because Archer was the only person who could have known beyond reasonable doubt who I was going to kill but, I only confirmed it right before rollover so that isn’t great reasoning, he could have still been fairly sure, but so could have another player I PMed. This second player wouldn’t have known extremely well, but they could have been fairly confident it was beetween a few people (I am not going to mention the second person’s name because I don’t think it’ll go anywhere and I don’t want to start a chase that’ll probably go nowhere when we could be looking for elims)

if you want another reads list I will do my best to provide.

so yeah, basically the whole point of that message was to ask:

Who should I fatally push metal into tonight? Your opinions will be appreciated.

 

 

Edited November 3, 2022 by Cinnamon
Getting rid of my PM quote

[---]

Hey Cin, why do you feel like posting unedited posts? From previous cycles? 

In the future, if you're village here, it's more beneficial to just post an edited version that's relevant to the presence. 

In my mind you're doing it to show that you had thoughts last cycle and weren't just frozen not knowing what to think or do. I think that's less useful to the village then having coherent posts. When you post like that you give openings for people to push on things that aren't there. Or maybe they are-that's my issue. 

Also do not quote from PMs. even providing timestamps from them (like Archer did last cycle, I really just wanted a general time) is borderline imo.

Anyways @Archer wasnt it theoretically 7v4 yesterday? I thought there was 11 or am I incapable of counting 

EDIT: I see now, it's a recap of a conversation

Edited November 3, 2022 by Illwei

[Elandera she/her]

Popping in for another reminder.

If you haven't yet, go read the general rules for this subforum. There have been a few things throughout this game that are skirting or violating the rules. Some of that is understandable due to having several new players (love having you all here, btw ). Everyone (and I mean everyone) could use a refresher every once in a while. I believe either I or Araris have addressed any of the violations so far.

I'm around on here and on discord if any of you have a concern or question. Reach out at any time, and I'll respond as soon as I can.

Enjoy!

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

11 hours ago, Archer said:

I still think TUN is village. With Mat out of the picture, v!Books looks pretty likely. I'm friendly. Soooo Whysper or Danex are looking pretty shootable :3

I'm slight vil reading TUN and Mat.

Right now my suspicions lie in <Dan, Whysper, Bookwyrm> with Archer as conditional

Edit: Actually Archer is about where a couple other players are- I'd much rather look at the pool above first

Edited November 3, 2022 by Shining Silhouette

[The Unknown Order he/him]

9 hours ago, Cinnamon said:

I only confirmed it right before rollover so that isn’t great reasoning, he could have still been fairly sure, but so could have another player I PMed

First of all, no direct quoting from PMs, just paraphrasing. This doesn't actually help, although it does mean Archer wasn't looking looking for who you were going to kill.

Not revealing this second player is not helpful, one of them/Archer kind of has to be e. If they aren't it suggests a very high risk appetite. 

[Archer he/him]

I am a Lurcher. Is anyone else? 

[+Whysper she/her]

8 hours ago, Illwei said:

Also do not quote from PMs. even providing timestamps from them (like Archer did last cycle, I really just wanted a general time) is borderline imo.

Yeah, I had been wondering about this. I know that things are a little more lenient as far as talking about RL here, but wasn't sure about this.

17 minutes ago, Archer said:

I am a Lurcher. Is anyone else?

Is there a reason you are mentioning this now? Does that help with figuring out Elim comp? I think someone previously mentioned something of the sort.

I think my role is useless at this point, but I guess still going to submit an action.  

[The Unknown Order he/him]

Just now, Whysper said:

Yeah, I had been wondering about this. I know that things are a little more lenient as far as talking about RL here, but wasn't sure about this.

Is there a reason you are mentioning this now? Does that help with figuring out Elim comp? I think someone previously mentioned something of the sort.

I think my role is useless at this point, but I guess still going to submit an action.  

I believe Archer is making a case for why he isn't elim by chosing an unprovable role that the elims could very well have.

Useless?

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

22 minutes ago, Whysper said:

Is there a reason you are mentioning this now?

He's going to make himself a target

And then protect himself when the elims come after him :P.

Edit: @Archer, who have you/Devo protected the previous cycles?

Edited November 3, 2022 by Shining Silhouette

[---]

Archer you were not in threat of dying, why did you claim?

[danex he/him]

6 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Edit: @Archer, who have you/Devo protected the previous cycles?

If we're assuming archer is telling the truth, he definitely shouldn't reveal this.
It would let the elims know who is unprotectable tonight.

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Archer you were not in threat of dying, why did you claim?

seconding this, that's a weird thing to do rn. It doesn't exactly seem like an elim play (at least, i don't see how e!archer would benefit from this), but i also don't see how vil!archer benefits.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 minute ago, dannnnnnex said:

If we're assuming archer is telling the truth, he definitely shouldn't reveal this.
It would let the elims know who is unprotectable tonight.

seconding this, that's a weird thing to do rn. It doesn't exactly seem like an elim play (at least, i don't see how e!archer would benefit from this), but i also don't see how vil!archer benefits.

Oh yeah don't tell us please! 

Feels like RandomV! move to me

[---]

No one else claim, if there's another lurcher you should protect archer, if there's no other lurchers I should be protected.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

Well PMing is down so how would Archer know if there's another lurcher?

[---]

Just kidding, if there's another lurcher you should be on me, Archer should be on himself or wtv idc