Long Game 89: Blessings of Metal

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

This isn’t exactly the bottom, to be fair :P.

Thoughts?

Legit asking because I know I went into a huge doubtfest with you and Shining in QF62 and I needed Devo to keep me solid. On the other hand, Falcon.

Edited to add:

To be clear, am doubting again, but I am aware the considerations don't drastically shift and also, QF62!Melkor, QF62!Noble...

Edited September 25, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Thoughts?

Legit asking because I know I went into a huge doubtfest with you and Shining in QF62 and I needed Devo to keep me solid. On the other hand, Falcon.

That was just to say that the one point Illwei chose to refute was done so inaccurately. JNV was closer to the top of her reads list and in a very clear shade of green signaling a village read. So nothing changes for me.

[---]

I wasn't going to defend myself because I don't believe in that, strategy wise, but since I'm dying anyways I'm going to do it for fun

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

But I don't see how a post reader like Illwei skips past all the raw FUD in JNV's post and @s me about my progression on Mat and her, but doesn't question that happening for JNV.

I had a negative read on JNV for D1 and most of D2, but I can't comprehend JNV's posts so I mostly skim over them. I unironically have no clue why I marked jnv as a green tier especially because of his vote on Stick which I didn't like. Again, the use of "push" is just not right. I didn't push TUN on N3, I went "okay who wants to kill him?" lol. Not the same thing.

My main problem with TUN was his nonchalance and uncare last EoD, and he's been gone for a lot of the game. Usually he's around and saying a lot of nonsense sometimes but it's still recognizable as trying. there's like, none of that now.

Kas breaking out of RP quickly and then even now going through post analysis which he doesn't do- that plus taking a bit to vote on me. As an Elim his TMI usually shows in ways such as village reading people he normally doesn't, and though he's basically waffled on me all game, it feels similar to that to me.

also in reference to JNV giving turtle a positive read off of a nothing post- that's more V!Indicative for turtle in my opinion. TMI makes Elims, especially lnew elims, much less likely to give village reads to their teammates unless there are people backing them. I feel like it's the opposite in turtle's case.

Also wrt jnv's read and waffling, don't forget that it definitely depends on thread view and others opinions on his reads as well when deciphering if he was talking about a teammate or not.

I want to call archer a villager for voting on turtle here, but in reality he can still be an Elim who's trying to deny what some other people have phrased as a thunderdome between me and him, by voting out of it when people have thrown that name out there too. I don't think this point means much but it's a thought so wtv.

I wanted to think from a metagame standpoint of looking through people. Like we're not going to see a team of xino/Turtle/jnv or something like that in my opinion, but that's probably not right because Xino is a veteran, but no one in that group has any sort of thread control usually. turtle is basically a new player again after leaving for so long afer only a few games, jnv has some games down but like I can't see controlling a game simply because of how they write their posts.

Also that point that i keep seeing people come back to, which is the EoD 1 and my vote on Xino after voting on a side wagon. The point is that there's no reason for me to move off my wagon. I could come up with anything, obviously, seeing as people don't even believe that I believe the reads I put out (People commonly telling me that there's no real way i have village reads early in a game, things like that) that i could have stayed on a side wagon and been fine. been perfectly find.

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That was just to say that the one point Illwei chose to refute was done so inaccurately. JNV was closer to the top of her reads list and in a very clear shade of green signaling a village read. So nothing changes for me.

Quote

Conq, Mat, Kas, Stick

If I were to put these into tiers it would be something like

Stick, Conq
Mat
Kas

These are my village reads right now. If I'm to add another tier it would probably be

Jnv, TUN.

 

[---]

Anyways, i probably shouldn't trust Stick as much as i do but since it's not my problem anymore I'm not going to put more effort into this.

Maybe I should just trust stick though.

I put Araris at the top of my reads and then he flipped vil, then i put conq at the top of my reads and he flipped vil.

I'm just going to keep typing until someone else posts so I can post again

Oh yeah @Matrim's Dice the vote being on you wasn't the outing part, it was the naked vote on you. if there had been words then it would have been recieved differently.

Mat, Kas, TUN, Wizard, Stick, Shining, Turtle, Archer

I trust stick based on previous things said, and wizard claimed the kill. Obviously there's the possibility they're still an elim who decided to claim as well, but wtv for now that's your guy's problem.

Mat, Kas, TUN, Shining, Turtle, Archer

The thing is, I refuse to believe that there is a team that doesn't have any of [Kas, Mat, Me, Araris, Stick] on it. It's obviously not Araris, and I don't believe it's stick, therefore one of Kas, Mat has to be an Elim, and I don't know which one I think is more likely.

Again as I've said- I think that Kas' progression wrt me hasn't been great, because he's been doing the thing where he avoids and village reads me. There can be external reasons for this but in isolation, it's not a villagery thing to do. That + the lack of paranoia going anywhere near Mat- With mat village reading Kas and Kas keeping Mat close as an Ally and basically not even looking over there.

I think Mat would have buddy'd up closer with me if he was an Elim, on D2, because of how hard I was trying to push him into the clear. It wouldn't make much sense for an Elim to refute that.

Anyways, I think Archer is likely village, as is turtle. Again leaving me with

[TUN, Shining]
[Mat, Kas]

If there's two elims left I think there's one from each, and if only one then it's in Mat/Kas.

EDIT: No one posted so sorry for double but i have places to be

i've barely read over the posts on d3 and n2. /shrug. haven't done any real analysis for that.

Edited September 25, 2022 by Illwei

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

15 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Again as I've said- I think that Kas' progression wrt me hasn't been great, because he's been doing the thing where he avoids and village reads me. There can be external reasons for this but in isolation, it's not a villagery thing to do. That + the lack of paranoia going anywhere near Mat- With mat village reading Kas and Kas keeping Mat close as an Ally and basically not even looking over there.

@Kasimir, what were your reasons for basically Conf V!Mat in your mind?

Edit: 

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

The simple answer: Village unity isn't really unity. Someone is compromised. And that, IMO, has to point to E!Illwei more than E!Turtle.

Maybe we should reconsider. I'm really doubting myself right now.

19 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Anyways, I think Archer is likely village, as is turtle. Again leaving me with

[TUN, Shining]
[Mat, Kas]

If there's two elims left I think there's one from each, and if only one then it's in Mat/Kas.

I'm more or less *fine* with voting someone from these pools. Though not me or Kas

Worst case scenario, it's 2-6 right now, and if we're wrong with the exe and get NKed then we're down to 2-4 which is...doable I guess. We also have potential blessings the village can use. This is difficult.

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

I've already used my blessing so wtv.

What was it and who did you use it on?

Illwei feels genuine to me in these posts. Like the fact that she mentions this feels V to me.

What happens if Illwei flips green? Are we still okay? And then who do we go after next?

Edited September 25, 2022 by Shining Silhouette

[Kasimir he/him]

A lot of the following will be based off a combination of Illwei's first and second post since I managed to get it to display.

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Kas breaking out of RP quickly and then even now going through post analysis which he doesn't do- that plus taking a bit to vote on me. As an Elim his TMI usually shows in ways such as village reading people he normally doesn't, and though he's basically waffled on me all game, it feels similar to that to me.

Surprisingly, I've spent the last few games mostly Village-reading people, even for flimsy reasons and then looking through whoever's left. You can ask the players in QF62 - [ @Matrim's Dice, @Shining Silhouette, @The Wandering Wizard, @Archer et al] I had substantially more Village reads, even weak ones, and then just a pool of ??? left. Sometimes, I was wrong. I V!read Shining at first for missing that I was a conf!Vil role, thinking no Elim would try to be so bold. That was a mistake. But once again, I've happily offered to put my neck on the chopping block and having done so publicly, E!me would not be able to walk this back casually. There's a reason E!me never really offers to die.

And having played with E!Mat and been able to ID him pretty early into QF62, I do feel more confident about my ability to recognise when he's being sus. I've mentioned previously I expected Shining would learn from QF62. I know I certainly did - I let E!Mat and E!Silho and V!Archer FUD me into disastrous reads when I should have defended Danex (and to a lesser extent, Devo) to the hilt because I clearly had good reason to believe in V!Danex and V!Devo. I let them talk me into walking back what should have been straightforwardly strong reads of Danex and Devo. It's not remotely surprising I would seek to do so again.

Surprisingly, I've also never been able to consistently maintain RP beyond two cycles tops in recent games this year ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ You can ask them exactly how long my Tulkas RP lasted in QF62. I question where this comes from, because you've played with me in Ash's LG where you were Evil, as well as in subsequent games, and I don't think I did more than a single post of RP at the very start before I focused on the game. Hell, you also played with me in MR56. I had a grand total of around two RP posts, one done in the first cycle, and the second in the cycle I died. 

But lemme get this straight. So I'm sus because I put in more effort and learned from my mistakes in the game directly prior to this where Mat and Silho both nearly collectively got me to make mistakes that would have been disastrous for the Village? I screwed up that game. Devo and TUN were both solid players and the Village MVPs. Devo kept me from error then. It's not remotely surprising I am very motivated to try not to do the same here.

But ok. So same question to you as to Shining. You now commit to an Elim among the noisy players:

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I wanted to think from a metagame standpoint of looking through people. Like we're not going to see a team of xino/Turtle/jnv or something like that in my opinion, but that's probably not right because Xino is a veteran, but no one in that group has any sort of thread control usually. turtle is basically a new player again after leaving for so long afer only a few games, jnv has some games down but like I can't see controlling a game simply because of how they write their posts.

It can't be Archer, because Archer only replaced Symph. You think there's a thread controller, and are committed to V!Mat and V!Stick right now. Conq already flipped Village.

So what do you do when I flip Village? Who do you go to next?

Mat? Who voted on both JNV and Xino? Whom Xino last-minute voted on, and whom you yourself insisted was Village?

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

also in reference to JNV giving turtle a positive read off of a nothing post- that's more V!Indicative for turtle in my opinion. TMI makes Elims, especially lnew elims, much less likely to give village reads to their teammates unless there are people backing them. I feel like it's the opposite in turtle's case.

I agree with this assessment and have reached that conclusion as well in the longpost.

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Also wrt jnv's read and waffling, don't forget that it definitely depends on thread view and others opinions on his reads as well when deciphering if he was talking about a teammate or not.

This is fair. So, would you like to give it a shot? As I said, I don't do post reads well. I'm happy for more people to give it a shot.

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I had a negative read on JNV for D1 and most of D2, but I can't comprehend JNV's posts so I mostly skim over them. I unironically have no clue why I marked jnv as a green tier especially because of his vote on Stick which I didn't like. Again, the use of "push" is just not right. I didn't push TUN on N3, I went "okay who wants to kill him?" lol. Not the same thing.

I consider that a terminology quibble. Offering him up for a lynch pretty much indicates you've downgraded him from a green read to a red read, or at least a null. That's movement as well.

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Also that point that i keep seeing people come back to, which is the EoD 1 and my vote on Xino after voting on a side wagon. The point is that there's no reason for me to move off my wagon. I could come up with anything, obviously, seeing as people don't even believe that I believe the reads I put out (People commonly telling me that there's no real way i have village reads early in a game, things like that) that i could have stayed on a side wagon and been fine. been perfectly find.

Araris's N1 response was that the most you get is a tie. Your counter is that a tie leads to one extra death, courtesy of Xino. Araris pointed out that you and Xino would both die after that because ties look awful - that's a disproportionate trade for an Elim. In a three member team world because you'd be connected to Xino: D1 11 / 3 -> N1 11 / 3 -> D2 9 / 3 -> N2 9 / 2 -> D3 8 / 2 -> N3 8 / 1. That's fairly dismal. Sure, we theoretically ended up in this world anyway, a little faster, thanks to Wiz, but losing two Elims is disproportionately worse compared to killing an extra Villager because the wincon is parity.

I don't deny you might have been fine staying on a side wagon. Though I question it - people would at least argue it's NAI, as Xino wasn't saveable by the time Conq voted him, And people lurking at EoD tend to get some sus. But the same deal happened in the MR when I was Evil - Orlok made a split second decision and gambled wrongly. Time pressure makes fools of us all.

So you now think your vote exonerates you but not Mat? To the point you're willing to go back to E!Mat? I'm not following this.

14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I trust stick based on previous things said, and wizard claimed the kill. Obviously there's the possibility they're still an elim who decided to claim as well, but wtv for now that's your guy's problem.

In what world is Wiz the Elim who decided to claim? Symph was offline, everyone has checked in, no one counterclaimed Wiz, not even TUN. There is solid reason to believe V!Wiz and I'm doubtful that you missed it. No Villager who checks in simply allows the claim without comment.

1 minute ago, Shining Silhouette said:

@Kasimir, what were your reasons for basically Conf V!Mat in your mind?

Here is my post responding to Illwei conclusively on the matter D2. I've also outlined my line of thought across multiple vote analyses and post analyses, so I think it's frankly rich and disingenuous for her to accuse me of zero progression because I've bloody dumped all my thoughts into the thread. At this point, my main response is: "It's amazing, the things you can not see if you are determined not to see them."

The post is thorough (with one exception, which I alluded to D1 and mentioned elsewhere), but I'll outline it briefly again:

On 9/23/2022 at 3:20 AM, Kasimir said:

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (2): Araris, JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (2): Silho, Mat
Araris (3): Illwei, Stick, Wiz
Mat (1): Kas

 There is no reason to two-vote bump Xino by joining you. This brings Xino into contention among the lead trains and calls unnecessary attention to Xino when Mat could've stayed on a side-train.

Also, Illwei claims that Xino first voted Mat in thread. So here's my question: why? Xino then takes it back and votes for me. But in an E!Mat world, Xino is saveable. Remember, Xino died with five votes - the last two were from Mat and Illwei. In an E!Mat world, there is fundamentally no reason for Xino to vote on Mat. Xino should just vote directly on me, joining Mat who was already there. You can call it distancing theatre, sure, but - to lose a Coinshot for it? Really?

Conversely, I found Mat's reaction a bit too quick to be doing the maths - it felt like a genuine reaction, just moving onto Xino.

Then, as I pointed out elsewhere, Araris is not remotely a reasonable Mat N1 kill. Mat very clearly stated in thread that he wasn't about to have an early Araris death because of QF62. There's a convention in SE where we try not to keep on killing early players who die early, and Mat is exactly that sort of decent player who doesn't do that thing. All the more so because E!him killed Araris. Moreover, I know that Araris was not terribly happy about being lynched in absentia in QF62. He did mention that in the dead doc (it's an aside, I requested it as I was tired of waiting, ideally it should be uploaded soon) and Mat was dead too, so Mat saw it. 

I expect Mat to be a player with a decent amount of say in his team's kills. This did not remotely feel like something Mat would do in the game right after QF62.

If Araris were a strategic target? Sure. But what about Araris was strategic when Mat could easily kill Conq...Illwei...even me? Araris said he felt D1 cleared him and Mat. Why does Mat kill Araris then?

Finally, as I said, I played QF62. (You would know  ) I very honestly had a nagging negative gut feeling about Mat from...probably C2, maybe C1 but I can't quite recall if it was that early. I kept on rationalising it away. But as I flagged later on, during C4, I finally hit the point I couldn't keep telling myself I was tripping and Mat was so helpful he should be V. I can't really explain why I felt that way for certain, but I think these things were a key factor: Mat never really felt like he was interested in solving the game. Everytime we tried to narrow down on things, he'd raise more questions. His cases never really felt like his heart was in them. It felt like he was just shoving possibilities at me and he wasn't terribly interested in finding solutions but just convenient votes. The lack of engagement was visceral, and I kept struggling because I'd look at his posts and say, "Yeah but he's saying things." It took me C4 to recognise that:

On 9/8/2022 at 9:44 PM, Kasimir said:

I wish I could feel like it is possible to wring insights out of this, but honestly my brain is just looping in and out of tired muttering. 

ngl if I think the only doubled role is Son of Feanor, then realistically my Melkor candidates exist in <Mat, Devo>, maybe <TUN> if we're theorising a shield. Of everyone I actually feel best about Devo and TUN.

I don't bloody know why. I don't bloody get it. Ok yes I have been going around and around and around about Devo and TUN and I don't know if it's shuffle squatting with Mat again but part of me just won't let it go. That yes okay effort clear, yes, looks Village but and I can't bloody seem to get on board with it and I don't bloody understand why.

Agggggggggggggggggggggh.

I'll try again later. I think it's clear I'm not making progress apart from understanding what it is like to bang my head repeatedly into walls.

I've never had that feeling this game. Not to this extent. I flagged as much on D1. I can't defend my D1. I've explained what I could, but as I say, I offer myself to the lynch if you think this is the best solution. When I flip Village, I would strongly suggest an Illwei lynch or NK. Please do not let her talk you all into killing Mat. IMO, immediately insisting that the two noisy players on the train that is voting her down are Evil is the classic Elim playbook. 

I have a tendency to doubt, yes. I don't doubt it's been on display all game. I'm doing my best to solve the game. I think there are points you just have to suspend doubt, because the evidence is crystal clear and the intellectually honest thing to do is to follow the evidence.

Frankly, at this point, all I have to say is this:

My posts speak for me. I've bared my soul and my thought processes. I've let my doubts be on display. Waffly? Yes. In that I will consider everything. This is normal for me. This was on full display in QF62, when I desperately tried to think about every single possibility that I had in my head.

But you know what I do that JNV didn't?

I try to come to conclusions. I try my best to make the best sense out of things rather than shrugging. I try, and try, and keep on engaging.

I think this game is about the journey, before the destination. Orlok once told me that the best thing you can do as Village is to show your peers your thought processes. I quite agree with him. It lets people understand your thinking, and it helps the Village even after you fall. And that is the meaning of being as Villager. The Village is greater than you.

I haven't been holding very much back. Illwei apparently keeps a decent chunk of her cards close to hand.

She can't even be fundamentally honest about her V!read of JNV and downplays it.

I didn't do that.

Whether we are Villagers or Elims, so long as we are alive, so long as we are not permitted to die in this game, we must assume responsibility. If this requires my death, so be it.

I've pointed out E!me doesn't kill Conq. I don't kill my strongest defender. I don't kill a player who - I think you'll have to agree - a player as noisy as E!me could use to drive a wedge into the Village, to throw shade on Mat and Stick. I've pointed out I don't kill Araris. Araris, whom I commemorate on death with an oath of vengeance on his killers. Araris, whom I deeply respect and enjoy playing with.

Could I kill Araris if he was a threat to my team? Sure. But Araris wasn't throwing shade on me or JNV. So why would I N1 him? I, who, too, saw his comment in the dead doc and understood he had been once again lynched early and in absentia and who knew how he felt about it?

Remember I said she can't even be fundamentally honest about her read of JNV?

Look at the para Illwei quoted.

Now look at the entire post.

On 9/23/2022 at 7:01 AM, Illwei said:

Conq, Mat, Kas, Stick

If I were to put these into tiers it would be something like

Stick, Conq
Mat
Kas

These are my village reads right now. If I'm to add another tier it would probably be

Jnv, TUN.

My thoughts on stick are pretty much of her last post and the wording (as well as the whole trying to vote at night, which i find mildly clearing in this case- it shows that stick was actively trying to find the elims and was excited when she thought she saw something), even though targeting someone who talks about the village as a separate entity and the other things Shining did last night is a pretty easy thing to latch on to when lost. That as well as the potential slip about knowing xino's alignment last cycle...

With the absence of Shqueeves and others talking more though, it's something I agree with-

EDIT: Yes, my village reads are basically the people who are talking. I have some reservations about kas but there's a recent post....I suppose I'm conflicted on. But I'm not going to talk about it because it could quickly spiral.

I also think Wizard has some Elim equity.

Turtle, Shqueeves
Wizard
Shining

Highlighted for your convenience, apologies for the colour.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I have a tendency to doubt, yes. I don't doubt it's been on display all game. I'm doing my best to solve the game. I think there are points you just have to suspend doubt, because the evidence is crystal clear and the intellectually honest thing to do is to follow the evidence.

Frankly, at this point, all I have to say is this:

My posts speak for me. I've bared my soul and my thought processes. I've let my doubts be on display. Waffly? Yes. In that I will consider everything. This is normal for me. This was on full display in QF62, when I desperately tried to think about every single possibility that I had in my head.

But you know what I do that JNV didn't?

I try to come to conclusions. I try my best to make the best sense out of things rather than shrugging. I try, and try, and keep on engaging.

I think this game is about the journey, before the destination. Orlok once told me that the best thing you can do as Village is to show your peers your thought processes. I quite agree with him. It lets people understand your thinking, and it helps the Village even after you fall. And that is the meaning of being as Villager. The Village is greater than you.

I haven't been holding very much back. Illwei apparently keeps a decent chunk of her cards close to hand.

She can't even be fundamentally honest about her V!read of JNV and downplays it.

I didn't do that.

Whether we are Villagers or Elims, so long as we are alive, so long as we are not permitted to die in this game, we must assume responsibility. If this requires my death, so be it.

I've pointed out E!me doesn't kill Conq. I don't kill my strongest defender. I don't kill a player who - I think you'll have to agree - a player as noisy as E!me could use to drive a wedge into the Village, to throw shade on Mat and Stick. I've pointed out I don't kill Araris. Araris, whom I commemorate on death with an oath of vengeance on his killers. Araris, whom I deeply respect and enjoy playing with.

Could I kill Araris if he was a threat to my team? Sure. But Araris wasn't throwing shade on me or JNV. So why would I N1 him? I, who, too, saw his comment in the dead doc and understood he had been once again lynched early and in absentia and who knew how he felt about it?

Remember I said she can't even be fundamentally honest about her read of JNV?

I feel like this has to be stored somewhere

36 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Maybe we should reconsider. I'm really doubting myself right now.

I need to stop taking posts at face value and analyse more. Your post makes me feel a lot better. Mat said earlier how V!Kas is a village asset, but I didn't appreciate that at the moment.

[Kasimir he/him]

46 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Maybe we should reconsider. I'm really doubting myself right now.

Do you now know how I felt against you in C5 of QF62?

46 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

Illwei feels genuine to me in these posts. Like the fact that she mentions this feels V to me.

I think my issue is the considerations don't seriously change, and I feel the immediate willingness to push me and Mat (!!!) in response is classic E!playbook. Aman calls Archer out on a similar play in C3 of MR56 - you can read it, if you'd like. It has an extraordinary amount of insanity, but Aman did serious heavy lifting against E!Archer (sorry, spoilers, but as Stick referenced it as well...) in that game. The disingenuousness and minimisation of the JNV read, on top of the D1 votes (I grant the D1 votes, as Illwei points out, aren't a smoking gun, but they don't exonerate), the N1 and N2 kills, and the fact that Illwei says I have no progression and clearly can't be bothered to at all engage with the numerous occasions on which I've laid out my thoughts and the reasons for changing my mind - I do think something is seriously wrong/odd here. You don't just dismiss the collective posts of a player because they don't fit the convenient lynch narrative you're driving.

I accept we could be wrong. I accept I could be wrong. I've been badly wrong many times in this game, after all. Just as I accept we could decide I am the better lynch instead.

And the thing is, in those cases, we do our best, and we honour V!Illwei by using her flip to move on, ID the Elims, and get them imprisoned for good. Sounds tacky, but that's basically what happened in QF62. The nature of the game doesn't change. Just as Devo reminded me you were the best option, even though you felt so genuine to me.

To be clear, you vote with your own conscience. If you genuinely want to go elsewhere, you should. But I don't think this drastically changes that we have to go there, and I think that the nature of Illwei's defense leaves me with reason for greater concern.

53 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

What happens if Illwei flips green? Are we still okay? And then who do we go after next?

IMO, yes. If Illwei flips green, I argue the correct pool is <Turtle, Archer>, possibly TUN if you really want to go there. Then we use what we have, and we begin again. I absolutely will not countenance auto-lynching Turtle. We want to go over the evidence again, using that information to make sense of the gamestate.

I don't advise kicking the ladder, FYI. I think the worst thing we can do is to completely restart. So Wiz, Stick, Mat, and you are more or less still off the table for me. JNV's attitude towards Turtle is still weird. But hopefully, Turtle's pinch-hitter (if, I accept, not guaranteed, but I know Ash put out a call and I know Sart agreed and I saw Sart reading the thread) will also be easier to read, and this will give us more information to work with. I expect the NK to hit one of the noisy players, and I do think Illwei flipping green should be a good indicator to look in the quiet pool - consider it a falsification of the 'one active and noisy profile Elim' theory we are now operating under.

The reasons behind Wiz, Stick, Mat, and you are sound. (Well, to varying degrees.) There is no reason to FUD ourselves into starting from scratch. This does the Elim's work for them.

[---]

@Kasimir

So you're saying that I'm a good candidate because there must be a more experienced/louder player on the elim team, but if I'm green then you look at archer(bookworm)/Turtle?

Because that doesn't make sense. I agree that Mat being evil doesn't make sense. Which is why all I have left is you if I trust my read on stick. 

TUN

Your arguments have holes but again my response before didn't have time to go over them and u don't have time now so every thing I say right now is going off of my memory. 

Good for you highlighting that post that I already quoted, so helpful. As you can see I said "if I had to add another row" it was jnv and tun which implies that they're stretches and not even that but it's obvious with my other posts where they sit for me. 

Tired of people twisting my words but I tell myself that your an elim and it's your job so w/e

Edited September 25, 2022 by Illwei

[Archer he/him]

10 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Kasimir

So you're saying that I'm a good candidate because there must be a more experienced/louder player on the elim team, but if I'm green then you look at archer(bookworm)/Turtle?

Because that doesn't make sense. I agree that Mat being evil doesn't make sense. Which is why all I have left is you if I trust my read on stick. 

TUN

Your arguments have holes but again my response before didn't have time to go over them and u don't have time now so every thing I say right now is going off of my memory. 

Good for you highlighting that post that I already quoted, so helpful. As you can see I said "if I had to add another row" it was jnv and tun which implies that they're stretches and not even that but it's obvious with my other posts where they sit for me. 

Tired of people twisting my words but I tell myself that your an elim and it's your job so w/e

Haven't really followed the convo today, so I apologize if you've declined to already, but are you willing to join me on Turtle? 

[The Unknown Order he/him]

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

I have had a busy last 2 days and I have to be somewhere in 2 hours (it's a holiday) So there's really no point in anything. 

 

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

My main problem with TUN was his nonchalance and uncare last EoD, and he's been gone for a lot of the game. Usually he's around and saying a lot of nonsense sometimes but it's still recognizable as trying. there's like, none of that now.

 

On 9/23/2022 at 6:18 PM, The Unknown Novel said:

I'll be on a road trip for football, then Jiu-jitsu, so activity is even iffyer than the past few cycles.

To quote you: ">.>"

Illwei.

Edited September 25, 2022 by The Unknown Novel

[---]

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

Haven't really followed the convo today, so I apologize if you've declined to already, but are you willing to join me on Turtle? 

I think Turtle is more likely v based on jnv interactions. If I had more comparisons with his elim game I could be convinced but I would need to go do a dive for that,  which I don't have time for right now. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

Four hours left in the turn!

 

Vote Count:

• Illwei (4): The Unknown Novel, The Wandering Wizard, Shining Silhouette, Kasimir
• The Unknown Novel (2): _Stick_, Illwei
• Turtle (1): Archer

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

Four hours left in the turn!

 

Vote Count:

• Illwei (4): The Unknown Novel, The Wandering Wizard, Shining Silhouette, Kasimir
• The Unknown Novel (2): _Stick_, Illwei
• Turtle (1): Archer

I think Mat is also on Illwei

On 9/24/2022 at 7:00 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

Ah, whatever, I’ve put it off long enough. Illwei.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

Four hours left in the turn!

 

Vote Count:

• Illwei (4): The Unknown Novel, The Wandering Wizard, Shining Silhouette, Kasimir
• The Unknown Novel (2): _Stick_, Illwei
• Turtle (1): Archer

Mat is also on Illwei. Other than that I think it's right.

[Mat he/him]

16 minutes ago, Illwei said:

So you're saying that I'm a good candidate because there must be a more experienced/louder player on the elim team, but if I'm green then you look at archer(bookworm)/Turtle?

Good for you highlighting that post that I already quoted, so helpful. As you can see I said "if I had to add another row" it was jnv and tun which implies that they're stretches and not even that but it's obvious with my other posts where they sit for me. 

I argued you’re a good candidate looking at the VC History, but I’m also not the person you tagged. I think my original points are what Kas first agreed with though.

The point of quoting again that was to show that there’s an entire elim tier below where you put JNV’s name in green. So even if you didn’t mean to put them in green, you still didn’t read them as elim and from our POV it does look like at least a v lean of JNV.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Three and fifty-three/sixtieths hours left in the turn!

 

Vote Count:

• Illwei (5): Matrim's Dice, The Unknown Novel, The Wandering Wizard, Shining Silhouette, Kasimir
• The Unknown Novel (2): _Stick_, Illwei
• Turtle (1): Archer

[Kasimir he/him]

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

@Kasimir

So you're saying that I'm a good candidate because there must be a more experienced/louder player on the elim team, but if I'm green then you look at archer(bookworm)/Turtle?

Because that doesn't make sense. I agree that Mat being evil doesn't make sense. Which is why all I have left is you if I trust my read on stick. 

I'm saying that if we work off the hypothesis that the Elim team has an active/noisier member - by the way, a hypothesis you have not in any point rejected until this part of the thread - then by elimination, I'm forced to conclude it's you. I also spent a significant part of the thread trying to decide if I was more sold on E!TUN, E!Turtle, or E!you, or E!Archer, which would constitute two different hypotheses: the noisy Elim hypothesis (you), or the quiet Elim hypothesis (Turtle, TUN, Archer.)

If you are green, I am not going to do the damnfool thing of rethinking Mat and Stick. I've rethought them: you yourself think Stick is solid Village. I have outlined exhaustively why I am not interested in rethinking Mat until the heat death of the universe, or until someone FUDs me into doing so, which I will try to resist. The correct thing to do is to reject the quiet Elim hypothesis and to go to the rest of the pool, and then reconsider that.

13 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Because that doesn't make sense. I agree that Mat being evil doesn't make sense. Which is why all I have left is you if I trust my read on stick. 

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

The thing is, I refuse to believe that there is a team that doesn't have any of [Kas, Mat, Me, Araris, Stick] on it. It's obviously not Araris, and I don't believe it's stick, therefore one of Kas, Mat has to be an Elim, and I don't know which one I think is more likely.

Again as I've said- I think that Kas' progression wrt me hasn't been great, because he's been doing the thing where he avoids and village reads me. There can be external reasons for this but in isolation, it's not a villagery thing to do. That + the lack of paranoia going anywhere near Mat- With mat village reading Kas and Kas keeping Mat close as an Ally and basically not even looking over there.

I think Mat would have buddy'd up closer with me if he was an Elim, on D2, because of how hard I was trying to push him into the clear. It wouldn't make much sense for an Elim to refute that.

But you're willing to walk it back all the same, and then half-take it back in the very same post, and then rescind it again now. This reads like a convenience claim.

14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Good for you highlighting that post that I already quoted, so helpful. As you can see I said "if I had to add another row" it was jnv and tun which implies that they're stretches and not even that but it's obvious with my other posts where they sit for me. 

Refusal to engage with the post doesn't look that good. You did indicate they're stretches - I will accept that. But you also pointedly placed a whole set of tiers of players below them, including Shining. You cannot fundamentally deny you ascribed them a better read within that post than you did Silho, Turtle, et al. Once again, I quote:

57 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Conq, Mat, Kas, Stick

If I were to put these into tiers it would be something like

Stick, Conq
Mat
Kas

These are my village reads right now. If I'm to add another tier it would probably be

Jnv, TUN.

My thoughts on stick are pretty much of her last post and the wording (as well as the whole trying to vote at night, which i find mildly clearing in this case- it shows that stick was actively trying to find the elims and was excited when she thought she saw something), even though targeting someone who talks about the village as a separate entity and the other things Shining did last night is a pretty easy thing to latch on to when lost. That as well as the potential slip about knowing xino's alignment last cycle...

With the absence of Shqueeves and others talking more though, it's something I agree with-

EDIT: Yes, my village reads are basically the people who are talking. I have some reservations about kas but there's a recent post....I suppose I'm conflicted on. But I'm not going to talk about it because it could quickly spiral.

I also think Wizard has some Elim equity.

Turtle, Shqueeves
Wizard
Shining

There is very clearly another three tiers below, all of whom you clearly ascribe a worse read to than JNV and TUN.

17 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Your arguments have holes but again my response before didn't have time to go over them and u don't have time now so every thing I say right now is going off of my memory. 

All arguments have holes. Yours have holes too. The job of the Village is to ascertain plausibility. The job of an Elim is to poke holes, to sow doubt, to explode the number of possibilities so the Village is overwhelmed.

I'm not the one doing that.

"You're Evil and your arguments have holes but I don't have time so I'm just going off memory to try to get you lynched but now TUN" doesn't read very Village either. I accept that you're busy, though you're certainly defending yourself stridently. But you are also dismissing my arguments, and this is a continued trend since D2 where you asked me to outline my reasons for V!reading Mat, I did so willingly, and you dropped the issue but continued to subtly resurrect E!me in the backdrop.

19 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Tired of people twisting my words but I tell myself that your an elim and it's your job so w/e

I've been quoting your posts. Hard to see how that's twisting your words. There's exactly one of us who is actively engaging with past content, and that's currently me.

As I told Shining, I don't deny I could be wrong about you. I was when you were Falcon. But how you are going about this only makes me feel you are the correct lynch today. 

There's a point in every Villager's lifespan where you fundamentally accept the best thing you can do for your team is to flip, leave them your suspicions, and wish them well. You did this as Falcon, though I regret how that entire game played out. I don't see that same willingness here. I see an Elim clinging to life no matter what.

We have killed two Elims in two cycles. There is no metric by which we should be remotely worried - we would have to screw up a lot more for the ball to be out of the Village's court at this point. 

1. If you insist I am Evil, why do you vote TUN? Why is self-pres more important than killing E!me? Surely your green flip would make me look Evil as all hell, seeing that I am in fact one of two main drivers behind your lynch, and as you acknowledge, Mat is read more V than me.

2. Let's make a deal. If you flip green, I will instantly surrender myself to the lynch the next day, or to a night vigkill. I don't really care, take your pick. Every player here can be my witness. If I refuse, I am clearly Evil and should be lynched on the spot.

@Matrim's Dice

@The Unknown Novel

@Shining Silhouette

@Archer

@_Stick_

@The Wandering Wizard

@Turtle

(Apologies if I missed someone, @ them too.)

This is not a gambit - I urge you all to ruthlessly lynch me. Any attempt by me to save myself should be considered Evil and met with by votes. We can afford this. I surrender myself willingly.

You're dead certain I'm Evil, right? So this should be acceptable to you - the Village is extremely ahead, with two Elims killed. 

Or how about the opposite? If every player present agrees to lynch Illwei without question next cycle when I flip V, and I bloody mean it guys, no waffling as soon as I'm dead, I surrender myself, once again, as I have repeatedly been offering, to the lynch. If I flip V, they lynch you. No more questioning. No more doubts.

You say I'm Evil, after all. The Village is very ahead. There is no way this is not immediately a winning move to agree to this deal. Whoever my hypothesised teammate is, they cannot be as dangerous as me.

@Archer - Do you feel remotely worried about vote manip forcing a tie?

[---]

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I argued you’re a good candidate looking at the VC History, but I’m also not the person you tagged. I think my original points are what Kas first agreed with though.

The point of quoting again that was to show that there’s an entire elim tier below where you put JNV’s name in green. So even if you didn’t mean to put them in green, you still didn’t read them as elim and from our POV it does look like at least a v lean of JNV.

Even if it is it doesn't matter and this discussion being you picking on that specific point is laughable 

[---]

@Kasimir

becayse I don't believe in you being an elim completely

And because my vote on tun has nothing to do with self pres

And if you are village then reread your point #2 and stop with that petty nonsense. I'm trying to play a game and you're being dramatic for no reason. 

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Even if it is it doesn't matter and this discussion being you picking on that specific point is laughable 

I picked that point because you picked that point, in your initial response ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

And yeah @Kas agreeing to that is like the opposite of rethinking and reevaluating and like is never a good idea :P.

[---]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I picked that point because you picked that point, in your initial response ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

And yeah @Kas agreeing to that is like the opposite of rethinking and reevaluating and like is never a good idea :P.

Not only is it not a good idea, it's 1) an appeal to emotion that makes people not want to kill you and 2) strictly anti town if you are town

And I didn't even read the rest of the post and now I see it's all that.  Kas you're throwing a fit over me saying you could be an elim. You're either better than that or an elim so pick one

Edited September 25, 2022 by Illwei

[---]

And I don't intend to survive

Your arguments are annoying me with how solidly you hold them despite them being false. I already said that. I get you don't believe that. (And i dont expect anyone to go "on they said theyre village. Guess we wont vote them!!")

Of course, why believe anything illwei ever says, honestly. Especially when you want to kill them, but even more especially when you don't want to kill them too, because they still might be an elim there as well of course. 

Sorry that my aggression comes out more aggressive than passive. Sure makes me look a lot meaner than you, doesn't it.

Edited September 25, 2022 by Illwei

[The Unknown Order he/him]

Despite my inactivity, I think I might be doing SE a little too much. This is me doing the suggested words for my phone:

Minutes ago and I think it would be so threadbare it might not work out if there is any possibility of winning together with the most votes must have at least two to get exed in the same faction and that I don’t particularly mind because it’s win is a good first step in as IM here and say it should absolutely apply to weaves as well as to protect any potential bystanders from getting their face sliced in half in case something happens to the user the ability to cling to any surface via a number of factions and send one of you over as a ship-jumper emissary for the turn after the one where you would otherwise be dead in the middle of the plot and then maybe they’ll be a bit more room for error than we had before this time so I won’t be on the Shard for the entire game out once they find a Returned because they don’t want to be forced to betray y’all and the Myrdraal walked towards Siertasha.

[Shining Silhouette he/him]

4 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Despite my inactivity, I think I might be doing SE a little too much. This is me doing the suggested words for my phone:

Minutes ago and I think it would be so threadbare it might not work out if there is any possibility of winning together with the most votes must have at least two to get exed in the same faction and that I don’t particularly mind because it’s win is a good first step in as IM here and say it should absolutely apply to weaves as well as to protect any potential bystanders from getting their face sliced in half in case something happens to the user the ability to cling to any surface via a number of factions and send one of you over as a ship-jumper emissary for the turn after the one where you would otherwise be dead in the middle of the plot and then maybe they’ll be a bit more room for error than we had before this time so I won’t be on the Shard for the entire game out once they find a Returned because they don’t want to be forced to betray y’all and the Myrdraal walked towards Siertasha.

I find this incredibly suspicious.

Edit: Also, Kas, I'm not going to vote you this cycle. Maybe later, if Illwei flips green, but I think it's unproductive to consider at the moment.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Shining Silhouette