Long Game 89: Blessings of Metal

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ah ok, that was my question. I wasn't sure if xino had voted before Stick had two votes, or after. I agree that xino's motive wasn't to protect Stick.

Yeah, replied to you but also trying to work out aloud if the argument for E!Stick makes sense, given:

A. She's in my pool and I'm trying to decide if I'm comfortable staying on Shqueeves, and
B. Conq is very convinced of this (this is the argument which, apparently, tipped the balance away from E!Mat, which he has been on for most of this cycle!) and I'm not as sold on it as he is, so I'm trying to work out what I think. He could very well be right, so it's worth thinking through and making my own assessment.

[Stick.]

20 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Ok, but how so? Those powers are one-shot as well, meaning that the Elims would have had to decide whether it was worth employing or not. If we speculate team of three or four, how many vote manip powers are you postulating? I think the most Ash can give them is two - in a game of this size, vote manip accelerates the end quite a bit, if they save it up. Again, I accept it's weaker because it's a oneshot, but.

And ngl but if you save Xino by burning 2-3 vote manips, Xino does make the extra kill but more or less gets murdered the next day. Don't forget this is the only vote manip blessing:

Yes those are good points. Everything being single-use does throw a wrench into things - and I was thinking about your 3-4 elim hypothesis and I think that might actually make some sense if the team consists of mostly newer/less-experienced players? That could also possibly explain why xino's exe had relatively little resistance given their role. Otherwise I really don't see a 4-player team. 3, maaaaybe.

20 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Ok, but let's say E!Silho. Do you drop a distancing vote on your Coinshot teammate of all teammates though? What could possess you to do something so kayana as that? Lack of awareness of how volatile D1 can be?

Perhaps they didn't anticipate xino would actually die

14 hours ago, The Unknown Novel said:

What's this about the Chinese Basketball Association?

I laughed.

33 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Mat... Stick fits the "Why not save Xino" world. Stick experiences a lot of pressure early on in the cycle with Araris being their main antagonist. Xino comes in and makes wizard take the lead in the votes, but then Araris changes his vote to stick. Stick retaliate votes on Araris and then stays there. Why didn't Stick join the Wizard wagon if they were worried about being killed? Perhaps they didn't want to vote with a teammate. Stick's last post was at 10 hours to rollover. The kill would also make sense since Stick was consistently voted on by Araris right up until an hour before rollover. The wagon on Xino happened so smoothly because there wasn't an elim except Xino on at EoD

uhhh okay there's a lot of wrongness in this paragraph here cuz Araris didn't even have his vote on me until later on in the cycle so the only vote on me at that stage was Kas which seemed like a poke vote and I wouldn't exactly call that "a lot of pressure"  Why would I vote on Wiz if I didn't suspect them? And about the timings of my posts, I kind of do live across the world from you. And Araris wasn't "consistently" voting me either he had like two or three other votes throughout the course of that turn. This is plain reaching.

[Mat]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

(this is the argument which, apparently, tipped the balance away from E!Mat, which he has been on for most of this cycle!)

I could be convinced of a [Conq, JNV/Shining] team because of just this, tbh. Probably JNV since I doubt both of xino's teammates end up voting him.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[---]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I could be convinced of a [Conq, JNV/Shining] team because of just this, tbh. Probably JNV since I doubt both of xino's teammates end up voting him.

I definitely don't think Conq is an Elim right now, if only for how confident and unconcerned about other's view of him he seems to be, like when he was pushing you and me. It could be him trying to take control of the game after his teammate went down, going all out on both you and I being teamed is somewhat of a good look.

I also think that Shqueeves and Turtle shouldn't be overlooked too much right now. Shqueeves definitely felt like very emotionless and calculated on D1 to me, which could be written off as some sort of rust, but It's still there.

Also @SymphonianBookworm exists, but hasn't talked much at all

[Kasimir]

12 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I could be convinced of a [Conq, JNV/Shining] team because of just this, tbh. Probably JNV since I doubt both of xino's teammates end up voting him.

Why so?

Sticking point for me is Conq being fourth voter on Xino. Noted it could be bus territory by that point but IDK - Conq mentioned getting off for the night, and I'd think the last place you put your vote is on your teammate if you know you can't get back, and your teammate could be saveable otherwise.

On 9/22/2022 at 0:51 AM, Kasimir said:

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (1): JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (3): Silho, Mat, Araris
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (1): Kas

I think the main challenge an E!Conq world has to address is: this is the state of the votes shortly before Conq moves on Xino. I can kinda see this being a bus, but Xino feels intuitively saveable if E!Conq had just stacked up on one of <Stick, Araris, Mat> at that point in time. (Ignoring a third teammate - as far as they know, they get to three votes, which means a tie, if Conq just votes one of these, and Xino self-preses, as he'll later do.) So it's an odd choice to make, bussing.

Edited to add:

14 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

so the only vote on me at that stage was Kas which seemed like a poke vote and I wouldn't exactly call that "a lot of pressure"

Ouch  

Edited September 22, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

5 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why so?

Essentially what Illwei said-- it'd make some sense for e!Conq in this case to be trying to stop everyone from killing his teammate next. He was super confident on me so it's odd that he left it for a Stick case that I guess wasn't very good, but I do agree that Conq going as hard as he did on me/Illwei is a good look, I've said as much before. And again, I don't know Conq's elim meta, I don't know if he'd bus like that or not.

Just looking at all the possibilities  I wasn't about to vote him out today. But an e!JNV strengthens the chance of e!Conq, imo

Edited September 22, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Conquestor]

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

This is the state of the votes right before Xino votes. It's very, very early in the cycle - there's little reason to expect Xino was being protective of Stick, and you and TUN were tied. Araris doesn't vote Stick with me until much later in the cycle (okay, again, not checking right now, but based off my past analysis, I have three vote change-boxes between Xino voting on Wiz and Araris subsequently joining me on Stick. That's a significant amount of voting movement between the two votes. I don't buy it.)

This post is the only pressure Stick faces on p1. Stick gets queries, sure, but no expressions of suspicion at all. Attention is on Wiz and TUN. Stick's only two posts are not responses to challenge but commentary without pressure:

I don't understand where this argument is emerging from.

Then, Xino votes Wiz around five hours after rollover. That's incredibly early to start being reasonably protective of teammates.

I feel like the lynchpin of this argument hinges on the Wiz vote being protective of Stick - agree that the Araris kill would be possible from Stick, not sure the rest decisively points to Stick so much as constructs a narrative for E!Stick.

MR59 you say that it has been a trend for elims to break ties early. 

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ah ok, that was my question. I wasn't sure if xino had voted before Stick had two votes, or after. I agree that xino's motive wasn't to protect Stick.

Yes, but with both stick and xino having votes on them so early in the cycle, the attempt would be to dilute the pool even more with a under the radar vote. If you can attempt to pull the vote pool away from yourself and your teammate, why not?

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

uhhh okay there's a lot of wrongness in this paragraph here cuz Araris didn't even have his vote on me until later on in the cycle so the only vote on me at that stage was Kas which seemed like a poke vote and I wouldn't exactly call that "a lot of pressure"  Why would I vote on Wiz if I didn't suspect them? And about the timings of my posts, I kind of do live across the world from you. And Araris wasn't "consistently" voting me either he had like two or three other votes throughout the course of that turn. This is plain reaching.

I admit that "a lot of pressure" was a bit of an exaggeration. The point is that you were sitting at the top of people who could've been lynched for almost the whole of D1. I would call that pressure. Also, you never did vote for wiz.... (Did you tell xino to vote for wiz? ) Did you mean Araris??? He was your only vote last cycle. Araris had his vote on you for most of the cycle and it only changed twice.

[Kasimir]

5 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

MR59 you say that it has been a trend for elims to break ties early. 

Yeah, but not on page 1. And you've been playing since then: have you seen that happening? By early, I usually mean maybe mid-cycle - as opposed to the convention that last minute (say, three hours to rollover thereabouts) tie-breakers are Evil, which used to be dominant pre-2021.

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And again, I don't know Conq's elim meta, I don't know if he'd bus like that or not.

Eh, that's almost not a bus already, and more a gambit I feel. Bussing when you can't save a teammate is one thing. Bussing a Coinshot when you could have otherwise saved them is a whole different meta from just bussing.

Edited to add: @Conquestor - I should add, not on page 1, not five hours after a forty-eight hour Turn just began, and not in response to a single player's poke vote. This feels a tad like confbiasing at this point.

Edited to add 2: @Matrim's Dice - You played with E!Xino in Ash's MR. Any recollection of how opportunistic or protective Xino gets?

Edited September 22, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Eh, that's almost not a bus already, and more a gambit I feel. Bussing when you can't save a teammate is one thing. Bussing a Coinshot when you could have otherwise saved them is a whole different meta from just bussing.

Could he have saved him? I mean, obviously my vote was moveable and if Conq had voted elsewhere I likely would have too (depending where it was), but he didn't know that when he voted. From his PoV he could have assumed it was a lost cause. Or not, idk :P.

[---]

Just like I'm partially working off of the assumption that Xino might have not noticed I switched off of Mat, is it possible that a teammate of Xino didn't realize that Xino was a coinshot....is it possible they thought he had a different blessing that started with a P....

[Kasimir]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Could he have saved him? I mean, obviously my vote was moveable and if Conq had voted elsewhere I likely would have too (depending where it was), but he didn't know that when he voted. From his PoV he could have assumed it was a lost cause. Or not, idk :P.

Your vote at that point was on Xino, so if your vote was moveable, that's basically confirming that Xino could be saved. But no, what I mean is, again, look at this:

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (1): JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (3): Silho, Mat, Araris
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (1): Kas

If E!Conq votes on one of these bolded trains, with Xino, he forms a three vote train. This is pretending the last teammate doesn't exist. Even in a world where your vote isn't moveable, Xino doesn't die. And as he points out in the post where he votes on Xino, 

He posts thirty-two minutes prior to rollover. It's not unreasonable to expect a certain amount of stability, even if it is also wishful thinking IMO.

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Just like I'm partially working off of the assumption that Xino might have not noticed I switched off of Mat, is it possible that a teammate of Xino didn't realize that Xino was a coinshot....is it possible they thought he had a different blessing that started with a P....

Doesn't that just mean you or Araris are Evil  

Edited to add: @Matrim's Dice - I note that also, in a world where your vote is moveable, given your vote was on Xino, that's only all the better for them. Even had Conq attracted a vote or two, what of it? Doesn't matter, he had zero, splitting the vote never hurts and sometimes is your best bet. I don't know if it is an Elim play/risk appetite thing here - it really feels like a 'he'd have to be gambiting' kind of call to make. Agree Conq is nowhere near a line I want to pursue at this point.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

Just now, Kasimir said:

If E!Conq votes on one of these bolded trains, with Xino, he forms a three vote train. This is pretending the last teammate doesn't exist. Even in a world where your vote isn't moveable, Xino doesn't die. And as he points out in the post where he votes on Xino, 

Ah, I see. It's also possible he forgot that ties didn't kill or didn't know if xino would be back on but pressing that argument is just going full-on devil's advocate  Makes sense to me.

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Just like I'm partially working off of the assumption that Xino might have not noticed I switched off of Mat

Does this imply that there was likely no one in the doc to have noticed that? Or at least poor doc tracking? Or that someone in the doc had to point out to him that Mat wasn't a saving train?

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ah, I see. It's also possible he forgot that ties didn't kill or didn't know if xino would be back on but pressing that argument is just going full-on devil's advocate  Makes sense to me.

Devil's advocate is fine and good, Melkor, just probably not a rabbit hole I want to go down right now >>

[The Wandering Wizard]

Stick, I dunno. She just reads as evil to me and it hasn't really changed. I'll stick my vote here, as re-reading the threads hasn't changed my opinion. Might change it.

[Stick.]

25 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Also, you never did vote for wiz.... (Did you tell xino to vote for wiz? )

You asked why I didn't join the Wiz wagon to save myself - my answer is that I would not vote on somebody I didn't suspect (Wiz) just to save myself when I could vote on someone I did suspect (Araris) and actually contribute to solving the game by voting where I think I should vote.

25 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Did you mean Araris??? He was your only vote last cycle. Araris had his vote on you for most of the cycle and it only changed twice.

You said "The kill would also make sense since Stick was consistently voted on by Araris right up until an hour before rollover."

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If E!Conq votes on one of these bolded trains, with Xino, he forms a three vote train. This is pretending the last teammate doesn't exist. Even in a world where your vote isn't moveable, Xino doesn't die.

If Conq had moved to me/Araris/Mat and had been followed by xino, the resulting flip would've pointed us straight to xino's train in the next cycle, no? Counter wagons are often the first places we look after a village flip (especially one with many vote movements) so a little bit of vote analysis would've been enough to potentially root out all the elims. Maybe I'm reading too much into it - in any case, I don't think I want to vote Conq today as I'm happy with my Shining vote but others that I can consider are JNV and Squeeves.

edit:

@The Wandering Wizard is this purely gut? What do you think of the cases others have brought up like JNV and Squeeves? Conq? Thoughts on Shining?

Edited September 22, 2022 by _Stick_

[Kasimir]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

If Conq had moved to me/Araris/Mat and had been followed by xino, the resulting flip would've pointed us straight to xino's train in the next cycle, no? Counter wagons are often the first places we look after a village flip (especially one with many vote movements) so a little bit of vote analysis would've been enough to potentially root out all the elims. Maybe I'm reading too much into it - in any case, I don't think I want to vote Conq today as I'm happy with my Shining vote but others that I can consider are JNV and Squeeves.

Conq moves, xino last-second votes as self-pres. Could point to xino, but IMO, self-pres votes tend to be NAI, so having xino be the saving vote on himself is invaluable. And as Illwei points out, when you have a one-shot Coinshot, just being able to survive that one Turn it takes to bring about a Village death is good. There's no reasonable world in which an Evil vig doesn't immediately kill at Night, I think. Very few Village players, given only one shot at a protect, would choose to protect in the first Night - too risky. So killing N1 is the smartest move.

Just a raw comparison - in which world are they better off? This world? Or one in which one of <Mat, you (if Village), Araris> is dead, they get two free kills at night, and potentially lose Xino the next day?

[The Wandering Wizard]

13 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

@The Wandering Wizard is this purely gut? What do you think of the cases others have brought up like JNV and Squeeves? Conq? Thoughts on Shining?

It's around 50/50. I lean very slightly elim on JNV, Squeeves, and Shining. Conq I just read as Null to Vill lean.

Edit: No it's more like 60/40

Edited September 22, 2022 by The Wandering Wizard

[Conquestor]

40 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

B. Conq is very convinced of this (this is the argument which, apparently, tipped the balance away from E!Mat, which he has been on for most of this cycle!) and I'm not as sold on it as he is, so I'm trying to work out what I think. He could very well be right, so it's worth thinking through and making my own assessment.

I forgot to reply to this. I wouldn't say that I am super convinced, we are only on D2 of an LG, but I am convinced enough to change it tentatively.

22 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Yeah, but not on page 1. And you've been playing since then: have you seen that happening? By early, I usually mean maybe mid-cycle - as opposed to the convention that last minute (say, three hours to rollover thereabouts) tie-breakers are Evil, which used to be dominant pre-2021.

Edited to add: @Conquestor - I should add, not on page 1, not five hours after a forty-eight hour Turn just began, and not in response to a single player's poke vote. This feels a tad like confbiasing at this point.

Edited to add 2: @Matrim's Dice - You played with E!Xino in Ash's MR. Any recollection of how opportunistic or protective Xino gets?

Ah, yes. that makes sense. Also, since I jumped back in, Devo has been the elim for two of my games and the last game had a single elim with a single convert action. I don't think that is a good judge of what the current meta is. (Devo is random is what I'm getting at.)

That's fair, it could be confbiasing, but how come that didn't come up because of any of my N1 posts? Why bring that up now? (Where I was confbiasing a little bit)

[Mat]

33 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add 2: @Matrim's Dice - You played with E!Xino in Ash's MR. Any recollection of how opportunistic or protective Xino gets?

My guess would be that e!xino will vote where it's easy to do so, especially if it's the opposing train to a teammate, but would probably prioritize saving a teammate over making a vote that makes perfect sense with his progression. Those are all assumptions as I really don't remember that game :P.

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Conquestor said:

I forgot to reply to this. I wouldn't say that I am super convinced, we are only on D2 of an LG, but I am convinced enough to change it tentatively.

I guess what I'm trying to say is I find it odd that an E!Stick-E!Xino argument...convinces you to go off the strong E!Mat take you've been having. But I also really don't think your voting history makes sense for E!Conq which is what I've been arguing in the thread, so that's good enough for me  

2 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

Ah, yes. that makes sense. Also, since I jumped back in, Devo has been the elim for two of my games and the last game had a single elim with a single convert action. I don't think that is a good judge of what the current meta is. (Devo is random is what I'm getting at.)

Nah, Devo is deadly. But I'll say the mid-cycle issue was to a significant extent (IIRC) pushed by players like Araris, and Araris and Devo called me out on this in AG8 when I was expecting the Elims to make incriminating late tiebreakers, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It's entirely possible the meta has shifted as the general crowd has also changed from those games somewhat.

3 minutes ago, Conquestor said:

That's fair, it could be confbiasing, but how come that didn't come up because of any of my N1 posts? Why bring that up now? (Where I was confbiasing a little bit)

Simply put, I was really half out of the game until I forced myself to sit down and do vote progression analysis even if I really didn't feel like it  Had to do with the fact I didn't want to get Ash to waste a pinch-hitter on me when he might actually need the pinch-hitter elsewhere and I felt I could at least try to give the minimum level of activity that I signed up for. So I am sort of kind of getting back into it, and I guess it's like inertia. Which is to say it's easier once you force yourself to do it, and at least I won't die feeling as though I let people down because I will have tried and done more than half-heartedly lurking because of RL stuff.

Also because I don't really think the confbias comes up except for the Stick argument. IDK if I'd call the Mat/Illwei ones confbias, I'd just disagree with them.

[---]

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Doesn't that just mean you or Araris are Evil  

Ionno man....I'm pretty sure thinking you have three seekers can like....happen to anyone....

Kas, What's your view on mat right now and how has that evolved from voting him at EoD while calling him village? Parts of your posts are pinging me, specifically the

On 9/19/2022 at 6:07 PM, Kasimir said:

But bah this also feels like V!Mat.

post close to rollover on D1.

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Does this imply that there was likely no one in the doc to have noticed that? Or at least poor doc tracking? Or that someone in the doc had to point out to him that Mat wasn't a saving train?

That's an option: New people, people in different Time zones, people who weren't around.

- Shqueeves left thread when Araris was at 3, and Wiz and Mat both at 2, with Xino on Mat. 4 hours before rollover and this is a very comfortable place to be as an Elim.
- Turtle wasn't on at all on D1, so there wouldn't have been much to save Xino.
- Bookworm both wasn't on and would need to be coached, which makes it harder to save xino if partnered.

- TUN wasn't on at all since the start of the cycle, couldn't save xino

- Stick left thread when Three people were tied, and didn't show up again. If she did, she most likely came back when Araris was comfortably in the lead. Honestly, her leaving thread for good for the day when it's at 2-2-2 is a mildly good look imo, but timezones are a thing so I shoudln't look too much into it.
- Wizard retracted his Araris vote 30 minutes after I did, 3 hours before rollover. He stuck around though until less than an hour before rollover.

I am trying to make sense of the Conq post at EoD where he pings Xino. Because pinging someone at 20 minutes before rollover...when you just put them at 3 votes ? Part of me thinks he was trying to get Xino to come online, but in the post he also says he's going away for the night, so it wouldn't do much good.

Honestly, I can't imagine Conq being an elim and not staying up for another 20 minutes? just to see if there was anything he could do to help, unless he was settled with bussing his teammate there, I can't imagine E!Conq there plopping a vote down and leaving, after

[Kasimir]

25 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Kas, What's your view on mat right now and how has that evolved from voting him at EoD while calling him village? Parts of your posts are pinging me, specifically the

I think he's Village, and I'm more willing to think he's Village than I am to think you're Village, relatively. I've spelled out my thoughts in the massive vote progression analysis post I did on the first page of this, but to summarise, I don't think E!Mat does the two vote bump to Xino here:

On 9/22/2022 at 0:51 AM, Kasimir said:

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (2): Araris, JNV
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (2): Silho, Mat
Araris (3): Illwei, Stick, Wiz
Mat (1): Kas

There's basically no reason to do it, and it calls unnecessary attention to Xino, even if Araris is currently in the lead.

I don't think you, Mat, and Xino are all Evil together - it's an odd gambit world, sure, but I'm not going to go there until/unless there is a long string of MLs. And ngl if you guys consciously bussed your Coinshot, I won't actually mind losing to you for pulling that off.

Xino basically has no reason to vote E!Mat because Xino is savable, so that distancing theatre makes zero sense. Without Mat, and before you joined, it is a three vote train, so similar reasoning to the one I've had for Conq. Why bother with ersatz distancing? Conversely, E!Mat doesn't last minute vote Xino alongside you - it's not implausible he reacted extremely quickly because he knew the maths the moment you voted Xino, but I still find it a bit too fast a reaction for a bus realisation. So on both sides, it doesn't seem right to me.

25 minutes ago, Illwei said:

On 9/20/2022 at 9:07 AM, Kasimir said:

But bah this also feels like V!Mat.

 

Sure, but funny enough, as much as my gut read off those posts was V!Mat (more engaged and solvy that in the QF), I also only associate early sus of V!me (if it's Mat) with E!Mat - V!Mat has tended not to do that. If Mat really is V, perhaps there are other reasons for it, but that was enough for me to switch, and I just wanted to see what I could get out of more pressure on Mat. It didn't help that his reasons for his sus on me were framed in the same vague way he'd tried to sus me in the last QF where he was Evil. So basically was all over the place, and decided to go hit Mat and see what happened.

It's also worth pointing out that I was extremely distracted and not playing the game properly until I sat down in this mega-post and tried to properly think through - I hadn't even read after my last D1 post and just half-skimmed everything before that mega-post happened. That marked the first time I sat down and seriously tried to analyse or think things through.

I can't say more about why - but I wasn't very functional at that point. Doing better now. I'm just going to leave it at that.

Edited to add:

@Illwei - Missed one and the reason I have higher credences in V!Mat than V!Illwei: I also don't see an Araris N1 kill as coming from any E!Mat world. Not when Mat was responsible for pushing an Araris D2 ML when Araris was afk in the last QF. There's no paucity of targets, e.g. you, Conq (ok maybe not Conq, since he was NKed pretty early, but you get the picture.)

Edited September 22, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat]

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

when Araris was afk

Ok I've never fully addressed that Araris being afk wasn't taken into consideration at all on D2 of the QF, it wasn't like I thought, "oh, he's not here, now's the time to kill him!" Like I would have tried to if he'd been in the thread anyway.

That's a tangent, sorry, but there's no Aftermath for the QF still and I've been wanting to clarify that for a while  

[Kasimir]

40 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ok I've never fully addressed that Araris being afk wasn't taken into consideration at all on D2 of the QF, it wasn't like I thought, "oh, he's not here, now's the time to kill him!" Like I would have tried to if he'd been in the thread anyway.

That's a tangent, sorry, but there's no Aftermath for the QF still and I've been wanting to clarify that for a while  

Yeah, but I do think that matters, you know? Not to the kill, but it's why I was pretty willing to sorta go V!Mat and then commit after the vote analysis. I think it's no secret that Araris does comment a bit about being killed when afk, and I also think that you're a decent sort, and given that you did push to kill him D2, and knowing his dead doc reaction about it, I can't really see E!you committing to back-to-back early kills of Araris. Just doesn't feel like it's in your character.

Like, if Araris was really problematic? Sure. But it's not like the circumstances absolutely force an Araris kill, and Araris was pro-V!Mat anyway so all the more you don't have reason to do it.

Edited to add: I'm going to keep my vote where it is and go sleep. I don't think I can make it back before rollover but okay, one last try.

People I am not down for voting today: <Mat, Illwei, Wiz, Conq, TUN>

I'm going to ignore this pool. Reasoning laid out in my posts across this cycle, but I am comfortable with it for the moment.

People I am okay with voting today: <Stick, JNV, Symph, Silho, Turtle, Shqueeves>

Of the people in this list:

-Stick doesn't seem aware of the vote counts last cycle. I'd kind of expect more awareness - I feel as though Elims should've been tracking closely given Xino was endangered. I guess it could explain why Xino went onto Mat though, if the team wasn't aware. @Conquestor - FWIW, rereading again makes me a bit more sympathetic towards your position. Nothing I can really put my finger on, just Stick reading/feeling a bit more passive than usual.

-JNV seems strangely incurious about the votes on them. I don't know how Evil that is - given the loss of Xino, which puts E!JNV's team one player down, I'd feel that they'd at least be conscious of that, but they don't seem to be, which is ??? I guess they could be doing the meta play, which is to studiously ignore and just conceal don't feel, IDK. JNV especially not reacting or even registering they're getting voted on is odd - where's the self-pres? Why isn't there any? JNV just shows up, comments, and doesn't even vote?

-Turtle N1 seems strangely unaware of how obviously clearing Araris's vote should be. I feel like E!Turtle doesn't need to do that - just kill Araris? But Turtle's takes are also...odd? A kinda a bit adjacent to the thread. IDK.

-Symph is on some form of inactivity warning. @Ashbringer - When will Symph be replaced, if she falls afoul of the filter? Depending on Ash's answer, I'm fine with leaving Symph to be replaced or filter-killed, rather than going there right now.

-With Silho, there's the whole thing Mat pointed out about how E!Silho just listens to JNV and moves off. 

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think I feel better on Shining than JNV. Shining's play has been different enough that it's pinging me, but honestly this post might be enough for me to change my mind again. I don't really see why e!Shining sticks to their vote after being called out on it here, especially after calling for consolidation. They're voting xino in a 2-2-2 tie or something like that, the best move for e!them is to listen to JNV and their own advice and move elsewhere.

Which happens, to be clear, at this point of the votes:

On 9/22/2022 at 0:51 AM, Kasimir said:

Wiz (1): Xino
Stick (2): JNV, Araris
TUN (1): Conq
Xino (2): Silho, Mat
Araris (1): Stick
Mat (1): Kas

Just four minutes later, Araris makes that pivotal swap from Stick to Xino. He does so at almost an hour to EoD.

I think I agree with Mat's take here. E!Silho should take the chance to retract or just cook up some reason to get off Xino and cause a Stick ML. As it stands, Xino is one of two lead trains. An hour to EoD isn't the time to dig your heels in. So adding Silho to the list of players I don't want to vote for this cycle and moving on.

-For Shqueeves, I don't really like this post, and I'm not sure why:

There's also my earlier thought about Shqueeve's only Conq vote, which boils down to:

On 9/22/2022 at 0:51 AM, Kasimir said:

Shqueeves then retracts from Conq. I don't know - I feel like E!Shqueeves could still leave the vote there because Conq wasn't in danger of death. But retracting quickly to a challenge from Araris and Stick after having defended the necessity of the vote feels odd. Potential E!sensitivity?

Wow, quoting myself now, I guess I'm really tired and CBA.

I think I'm fine staying on Shqueeves for now. No guarantees will be around for rollover but if people can inject more clarity into the mess of my thoughts, will be grateful.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

Honestly my vote on Shining has little to do with their D1 in isolation and more to do with their N1 explanation of their D1 thought-process. I’m aware that I’m hyperfixating on this post and the one preceding it because it feels straight out of an elim mindset and too self-aware.

I would like to highlight these parts in particular: 

Quote

But since I had limited time I decided to just keep it where it was because my reasoning for a vote change would've probably been weak and torn apart by the village because my suspicions aren't too strong right now.

And if I just took my vote off and didn't put it on someone than if E!Xino I'm dead cause I'm suspected of helping a teammate.

Speaking of the village as a separate entity, the conscious caution being taken against scrutiny, etc. 
I don’t think I’ve played with Shining before so I can’t tell if this is alignment indicative behaviour from them but it sets of alarms for me. 

im going to sleep now