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Quick Fix 59: Bachelor--Roshar edition!


Lotus

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1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Yes - I think there's a qualitative difference between those of us who didn't signal (me included), and those who had a group of three and were more or less obvious about who in the group of three they were going to go on.

Ah yes, I agree, but I differ in that I signaled that I wasn't going to signal my vote. :P

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1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Cool, thank you.

I have to admit, your EoD panicking look not great in a last-minute-bus scenario. But I also have reasons to think you're Village and tbh I would expect your "idk where to vote, I might not vote at all" to be contained within the elim doc, were you truthfully an elim.

Which is why I want to know if anyone was expressing sus of you before Striker's post, because his weird hedginess with you could have been hoping for an ML if so. If not... it def doesn't look good for V!Ash.

Dingo says hi :P

I'm feeling different too, although I may have to go back and see what exactly is different. It's not Dingo, but it's also definitely not the brands of chaos I tried early MR56/LG83/BT1. Maybe I'm just sleep deprived. But I don't have a great defense right now, especially with Unknown!Archer.

On that note, I need to go do a Bio lab, so have fun figuring out who wants to kill me.

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Elims were obviously way too scared of the power Mat and I have when we find eachother

I do want to direct you people to a specific...interaction??

17 hours ago, Archer said:
19 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

…I knew I forgot to do something. I was barely able to keep my eyes open as I was doing the second half of that post, so it slipped my mind to actually add a vote. Archer.

grr that's a villagery thing to admit. 

but then...Archer...says... this, about the same Striker quote.

7 hours ago, Archer said:

Going by the theory that elims are more inclined towards conflict de-escalation, this feels like an overreaction from one to protect their standing. My response in their shoes would have been to claim having already put the vote in in secret, did you even read my post? :P. Smh do I have to spell everything out for y'all... Etc

Then in his post after that, shades Aman.

5 hours ago, Archer said:

As I alluded to earlier, your votes have been pretty direct. Your playstyle tends to be to provide an avalanche of reasons with your vote instead of being choosey, which I don't mind. But I'm hesitant to give you any credit for acting like you have previously because as much as you claim to be ignorant of your own meta, if people acted really differently when they were evil, this game would be way easier to solve. I'm genuinely confused why you're bringing it up.

Could be seen as attacking Aman to try and discredit the Striker train. 
--
Now I'd like to direct your attention back to wherever it was before. cool
--
Arbitrary reads list things (idk names who is who)

Archa/Floradel/(talia) both "look more into" people

Clumps Maill into the non-posters despite having one post?

Specifically looking for approach to either probable/confirmed villagers.

Quote

Lucy the axehound: They seemed to get very aggressive with Nid when they suggested their strategy, but then backed off for no apparent reason. Does the axehound know more than we do? I'll have to keep an eye on that creature. 

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Awoman: This man has mostly been making jokes with the women and men here in the suite. But when he has not been doing that, I have agreed with him. He seems perfectly amenable to me. I am amused by the fact that he called me by the wrong name earlier, but I have not yet gotten an explanation for how it happened.

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Albert: This supposed cup has made some good points about how many murderers we might be dealing with. They are also making several points about the nature of our votes in this game for Adolin's love being secret that I agree with strongly. It is odd that they are accusing an axehound of being a murderer, but, well, I do find the axehound suspicious as well. 

Shades me while shading himself. lol. I find the reads on me and Aman I suppose to be the most similar? Though mine is different because he also attempts to shade me (though also shading himself lol)

I want to think more but I am 10 minutes past when i need to leave for work so I'll hope I want to think just as much when i get off work tonight

Edited by Illwei
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7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Which is why I want to know if anyone was expressing sus of you before Striker's post, because his weird hedginess with you could have been hoping for an ML if so. If not... it def doesn't look good for V!Ash.

Didn't find anything that indicated that.

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52 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

could you all tell us your exact reasoning for voting Stricker, and perhaps the exact time you submitted the vote in your PMs

Stricker seemed too free to assign village reads to people with little evidence and multiple times asked if his logic was sound, which indicated that he cared more about whether people accepted his reasoning than whether his reasoning was at all accurate. I looked back at his recent games and found that he used the exact same phrasing of 'Does that make sense' in AG 8 as Pearl Chameleon when he was evil, which wasn't super conclusive since he was anonymous in that game, but I thought was worth a vote C1 since he didn't do that as a neutral in QF 58 or a villager claiming neutral in MR 56. I voted in PM four minutes after my vote in thread, so 9:12 PST, after deciding I wasn't going to go through Ash's previous games at the time.

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12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Didn't find anything that indicated that.

Thank you for doing the back reading I'm too lazy to do myself <3

30 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Tailia: I have found most of what they have said fairly agreeable. I appreciate that they are holding themselves accountable for their own actions. Do not understand why they have been defending Nid's ideas, however. So I am fairly confused by this woman. I would still prefer to investigate Nid further before investigating Tailia.

Hm. In a V!Ash world, it's possible Striker believed the anti-Archer feelings would naturally transfer over to Ash (in others' minds), and thus could have been keeping his options open for another future ML? Idk if I'm a good judge for this since I want to believe Ash is a Villager for a couple independent analysis reasons, but the interactions with Striker are, well, Striking. Especially in a bus scenario.

First level says Striker voting Ash to self-pres is E/V, but in a bus scenario, would be optimal to vote a teammate. I also think that if the elims weren't planning a bus ahead of time, they would be panicking about where to vote at the end, since even inaction would look weird (hence Ash being like, "I'm confused so I might not vote at all"). I feel like villagers would have more dgaf energy in this situation? Like... what does not voting accomplish as a Villager? Why does being confused in this game differ from being confused in any other? Why sweat about it? Feels like Ash was more worried about how his vote would make him look than who he was voting, if that makes sense?

That's kinda where I'm stuck, atm.

ED1T:

10 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Stricker seemed too free to assign village reads to people with little evidence and multiple times asked if his logic was sound, which indicated that he cared more about whether people accepted his reasoning than whether his reasoning was at all accurate. I looked back at his recent games and found that he used the exact same phrasing of 'Does that make sense' in AG 8 as Pearl Chameleon when he was evil, which wasn't super conclusive since he was anonymous in that game, but I thought was worth a vote C1 since he didn't do that as a neutral in QF 58 or a villager claiming neutral in MR 56. I voted in PM four minutes after my vote in thread, so 9:12 PST, after deciding I wasn't going to go through Ash's previous games at the time.

Ooo, I either missed your post where you publicly voted him or forgot it amidst other posts. I do feel good about your vote for those reasons, although I will say if Striker was planned to be bused ahead of time, you'd fit the bill. At the very least, you're definitely not E/E with Ash, which is nice.

Edited by Amanuensis
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I'm going to get this in now, since today is going to be busy and I'm not sure I'll be on much once the hour is up until the last half hour of the cycle. 

Stricker (8): Kasimir, Matrim's dice, Devotary, AshAmanuensis, Illwei, Bort, Orlok

We know Mat is good, obviously. Devo's logic rang true to me even last cycle as something minor, but something they specifically would pick up on. Bort, as Aman mentioned, wasn't on near the end of the cycle and I feel like that'd be early for a bus. I want to read Kas and Aman as good, but I don't know how much of that is just the excitement of playing with them again. Orlok's tables show up poorly on mobile, so I've barely looked at them. So I'm putting those three as null for now. That leaves Ash and Illwei. Illwei rings more village to me as well, so if I had to pick one of the voters on Striker right now, it'd be Ash. I am still really looking at Exp's vote over on Ash though and think that's a weird one. 

Anyone know how many of the above 8 voters signalled pretty clearly that they would be voting for Striker, say, 3 or so hours before the cycle ended?

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3 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Anyone know how many of the above 8 voters signalled pretty clearly that they would be voting for Striker, say, 3 or so hours before the cycle ended?

TBH my vote was on myself until 4 hours before the cycle ended :P I had planned on abstaining from the exe by self-voting but was a bit worried that no coordination would = an unproductive exe and elims gaining ground.

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2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

TBH my vote was on myself until 4 hours before the cycle ended :P I had planned on abstaining from the exe by self-voting but was a bit worried that no coordination would = an unproductive exe and elims gaining ground.

Fair enough, though it appears your worries were unfounded. :P

I'm wondering so that we can determine more if elims were likely to be bussing or if they would be attaching themselves to other potential targets to save Striker. If it only looked like maybe 3 people would be voting on him, then I think they're less likely to bus and more likely to hop on a secondary train that people who gave their 3 options might be on. 

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4 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Fair enough, though it appears your worries were unfounded. :P

I'm wondering so that we can determine more if elims were likely to be bussing or if they would be attaching themselves to other potential targets to save Striker. If it only looked like maybe 3 people would be voting on him, then I think they're less likely to bus and more likely to hop on a secondary train that people who gave their 3 options might be on. 

Yup, apparently :o the red flip was a pleasant surprise but also immediately tainted by how coordinated it seemed because of Big Number.

Also agree that's a very good avenue to pursue, just too lazy to backread myself. Gotta let other people do the work sometimes, y'know :P 

I think I'm most interested in a Thaidakar the Ghostblood exe today. I mean, he's literally the storming leader of the Ghostbloods. And he's uncharacteristically inactive.

Edited by Amanuensis
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10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Thank you for doing the back reading I'm too lazy to do myself <3

I gotchu bro :+1:

9 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Anyone know how many of the above 8 voters signalled pretty clearly that they would be voting for Striker, say, 3 or so hours before the cycle ended?

Definitely a non-signaller, I'm afraid. Laid out my reasons in my first post this cycle, but more or less: highlighted I was open to solicitation and wanted to see if people were invested enough in Striker to talk me onto him (I publicly eh-ed it), also felt it was a good time to broaden scrutiny by placing pressure on JNV, Experience, and TUA since I picked up on them while working on my voting position distribution table. Also wanted to see if anyone took up - I think it's always helpful to get a temperature check when there's enough people expressing interest in a candidate if there's sudden movement towards alternatives. My gauge is I didn't really think there was much interest, but was reluctant to consider it indicative due to the known new Elim non-reactivity meta.

I think my tldr; just boiled down to feeling I could do more constructively in informational terms by non-signalling.

8 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

I'm wondering so that we can determine more if elims were likely to be bussing or if they would be attaching themselves to other potential targets to save Striker. If it only looked like maybe 3 people would be voting on him, then I think they're less likely to bus and more likely to hop on a secondary train that people who gave their 3 options might be on. 

I think this is one reason I'd like the overall timestamp picture but I think we can work even with some measure of uncertainty. But that's a later deal. I really should not be encouraging the insomnia but as the guy who works poorly with reads and better with vote analysis, this is my time to get to work :P 

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14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I gotchu bro :+1:

BTW for the group date, I imagine it'd involve you two dueling (Awoman would probably encourage a shirtless duel, but with how Adolin likes his fashion, he might not be into it) while simply watching and lounging and petting Lucy, who he's adopted as a pet / spy / confidant. If you want to start it off, I can build my RP off yours. Also feel free to take it any other direction you'd like; I can adapt.

Edited by Amanuensis
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12 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

BTW for the group date, I imagine it'd involve you two dueling (Awoman would probably encourage a shirtless duel, but with how Adolin likes his fashion, he might not be into it) while simply watching and lounging and petting Lucy, who he's adopted as a pet / spy / confidant. If you want to start it off, I can build my RP off yours. Also feel free to take it any other direction you'd like; I can adapt.

Think you may want to start it off - I need sleep as it's almost 6AM and my insomnia has just come to a grinding halt. I came back to remind everyone to give timezone as well - there's no use in raw numbers if we don't know how to convert it for the sake of vote analysis.

Might not be into it, you say? :eyes:

It might not start shirtless, but Keredin is more than happy to oblige ;) 

After all, they are using sharp pointy things right? (Nevermind that this would be an absolute failure of workplace safety I guess.)

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1 hour ago, Mailliw73 said:

Anyone know how many of the above 8 voters signalled pretty clearly that they would be voting for Striker, say, 3 or so hours before the cycle ended?

Only Bort and Matrim that I can see. Bort mentioned not liking Striker's posts 12 hours ago and must have voted well in advance. Mat voted for Striker ~16.5 hours before rollover and got killed. Illwei didn't think Striker's post was villagery asof ~14.5 hours before rollover but didn't have a clear indication of voting for Striker.

Quote

Devo - if I was Evil and wanted Aman to not die, I’d just say so in the doc. Unless you think I’m advocating leniency on a returning player who’s been NK’d repeatedly, for village cred. In that case idk what to say.

@Ashbringer this is fair, since Kas is doing pretty much the same thing. I was looking at you for this since I remember Kas not wanting returning players to die in recent games but didn't remember if you'd done the same. I don't think you did in MR 56 or LG 83 at least.

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2 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

@Ashbringer this is fair, since Kas is doing pretty much the same thing. I was looking at you for this since I remember Kas not wanting returning players to die in recent games but didn't remember if you'd done the same. I don't think you did in MR 56 or LG 83 at least.

I wasn’t doing it in those games, honestly. MR56 I was too busy panicking over no flips and then the many deaths to be worried about it, and LG83 I was mostly focused on RP until I died N2 with Aman. I think I considered mentioning it in the BT but that was moving a bit too fast. Plus the more the pattern continues the more of an issue I have with it, I guess.

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25 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Only Bort and Matrim that I can see. Bort mentioned not liking Striker's posts 12 hours ago and must have voted well in advance. Mat voted for Striker ~16.5 hours before rollover and got killed. Illwei didn't think Striker's post was villagery asof ~14.5 hours before rollover but didn't have a clear indication of voting for Striker.

This would lead me to think that those voting on other targets may be our more likely elims. Exp in particular since they are the only second vote on someone and it sounded like Ash had a real chance at getting exed. 

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25 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

This would lead me to think that those voting on other targets may be our more likely elims. Exp in particular since they are the only second vote on someone and it sounded like Ash had a real chance at getting exed. 

Striker did seem resigned to die near the end tho. I kind of suspect that he was aware other elims were voting him already and following my lead explicitly to gain village cred. Did anyone besides Devo openly vote for him? Cause not even Ash or Exp were up for it originally, so it feels weird for him to assume he was dying at that point.

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I agree with Bort being strong village. 

1 hour ago, Thaidakar the Ghostblood said:

sorry guys, I have not been active lately, but I will post at least once a cycle, Aman.

Bold vote. :P. His interactions with Striker last cycle were too aggressively negative to be a teammate. He applied very intense pressure to Striker, of the kind I'd only believe was e-e if you convinced me Striker entered the elim doc and said bus me, I've got IRL stuff to do and don't have time to be evil. Which I'll only entertain if Aman isn't NKed by like C5. 

Illwei pointing out that I waffled a lot on Striker was valid. As I said in my last post of the round, logically I knew Striker was the best option. But my heart said it was too easy. Plus I was generally opposed to a runaway train because I had theories to test that relied on even pressure being applied. Getting an elim C1 really messed me up

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1 hour ago, Archer said:

Bold vote. :P.

It's less bold when you believe Thaid is a first time elim that's lost in the sauce :P

 

So anyway, I ended up reading D1 again...

7 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Well, I sure missed a lot while I slept and observed my old high school band rehearse. 

I'm probably gonna die and don't really have the time to do a super detailed response to more of the accusations against me. For what it's worth, I was responding to those more because it felt easier with my limited time to respond to things directed at me.

@Kasimir @Matrim's Dice @Devotary of Spontaneity @Archer @Experience @Ashbringer @Mailliw73 @Amanuensis @Bort @Orlok Tsubodai Any of y'all willing to switch your votes off of me/vote for Archer with me? Oh and Devo, I think my current playstyle is just so heavily influenced by the games I've played lately. The MR hardly even counted as a village game because I was faking being a neutral. The last time I was a villager before now was August last year. XD And man I understand how Mat felt D1 of the last MR...>>

Oh, and Aman, my current village read of you is from a combination of seeing you in the MR and my LG in PMs, since you didn't post much in my game. Maybe I'm just too used to thinking of you as village in a GM way, since I GM'd you, but I'm still reading you as village.

Oh as I'm typing this, Aman has said he might vote Archer...Aman, pretty please? It'd be nice to survive 2 games in a row (which has literally only happened to me once, ever)

Also, I definitely thought this cycle ended at noon my time, so like 15 minutes ago, which would've been bad for me, but then I saw people still posting and got very confused. Glad to know I just did my timezone conversions wrong. :P

Experience are you okay? I know you said you are physically fine, but like...mentally?

This was Stricker's re-entry into the game from about 1 hour before rollover, as seen on Page 4.

On Page 2, only Mat and I were publicly anti-Stricker.

On Page 3, Archer responded to some things about Stricker but in a kind of distanced way that didn't give his read. Illwei and Striker began interacting with each other in a way I can't parse as E/V or E/E (someone halp). Bort also expresses his suspicion of Stricker, and Ash considers voting Stricker over Archer.

On Page 4, Archer finally comes around to suspecting Stricker (though does not say he's voting him), JNV continues pushing on the Archer exe, and Devotary chimes in with her public Stricker vote.

That's when Stricker re-entries: explicit votes from Aman, Mat, Devo, potential votes from Bort, Archer, and Ash.

6 hours ago, Lotus said:

Stricker (8): Kasimir, Matrim's dice, Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei, Bort, Orlok

Greening the conf villagers :P

Kas I kind of want to give the benefit of the doubt rn, will be very impressed if he's an elim playing things as cool as he is now

Devotary's public vote makes her look pretty good, which makes me wonder if that's the point (I.E. bus was decided by the time she voted)

Ash was basically coerced into his vote last minute (imo contributes to my village lean)

Orlok was paying enough attention to the game in order to vote despite not catching up on his big analysis (ngl, I'm kinda sus of that fact)

And Illwei wasn't super clear about suspecting Striker but voted there anyway

Inb4 the elim team is actually Striker, Devo, Orlok, and Illwei :P

TBH, tryna pick out who the buser is (if there even is one) feels like shooting fish in a barrel right now, so let me take a different approach.

6 hours ago, Lotus said:

Ash (2): Experience, Stricker

Illwei (1): The Unknown Aon

JNV (1): Maillwi

Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood

Archer(1): JNV

Greening TUA because imo Stricker was clearly keeping that option open for a ML.

Could Stricker have been resigned to death because one of his teammates (Thaidakar?) was not online to vote with him?

Kind of want to green Experience because would a Stricker who believes he's going to die really vote alongside a teammate? I'd buy him voting a teammate before I'd buy him voting with one.

Mailliw vote so indifferent to Stricker's potential death, it probably means he's V.

Still think JNV wouldn't have tunneled so hard on Archer if JNV was E.

 

Bleh, I really don't know. It's such a weird situation. @Kasimir you like vote analysis. Have you come up with any conclusions?

Edited by Amanuensis
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4 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I wasn’t doing it in those games, honestly. MR56 I was too busy panicking over no flips and then the many deaths to be worried about it, and LG83 I was mostly focused on RP until I died N2 with Aman. I think I considered mentioning it in the BT but that was moving a bit too fast. Plus the more the pattern continues the more of an issue I have with it, I guess.

Hmmm a noted difference but okay. I'll take a look at other things.

4 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

This would lead me to think that those voting on other targets may be our more likely elims. Exp in particular since they are the only second vote on someone and it sounded like Ash had a real chance at getting exed. 

It was Archer vs. Striker for most of the cycle, with Archer looking like he had a real chance of dying, and yet JNV is the only vote on Archer. Unless Archer is also evil, he would be a convenient place for the elims to put a vote to protect Striker. The fact that only one vote ended up there suggests that the elims saw Striker was doomed and gave up, in which case I would guess they scattered their votes, or Archer is evil and the elims had a different target in mind. I think the fact that Striker knew he would die makes it difficult to guess where the elims ended up, especially if there were only two elims other than Striker. An elim hastily switching late might be more careful about choosing a target they'd mentioned suspicion of to avoid questions next cycle.

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Striker did seem resigned to die near the end tho. I kind of suspect that he was aware other elims were voting him already and following my lead explicitly to gain village cred. Did anyone besides Devo openly vote for him? Cause not even Ash or Exp were up for it originally, so it feels weird for him to assume he was dying at that point.

You and Matrim were the other players to vote Striker in red. I don't think it was clear Striker was dying until you and Matrim reaffirmed your intentions to vote for him at the earliest.

This would have worked better if there were nights, but here's 'Night 1' (part 1). Anyone who wants to be part of Mehdan's group for day 2 can let me know.

Spoiler

When Temlin heard footsteps in the hallway, she hastily gathered up all the pages of her manuscript and shoved them back under the mattress and took out Mehdan’s labored attempts at spelling. She placed the spanreed on the desk and sat down in time for Mehdan to knock on the door.

As Mehdan entered the room, Temlin put on her best smile and asked “How did your first meeting go?”

“It went well? I think?” said Mehdan, taking off her shoes and sitting down on her bed. She turned to face Temlin and said, “One person was supposed to be eliminated today but then Adolin only had 13 roses so we lost two people. He looked confused like he was expecting to have another rose to give out, but the judges didn’t say anything so maybe this was supposed to happen.”

“Who was eliminated?”

“Vanala, for one. Adolin must have picked up that a lot of us didn’t like her for trying to judge us behind our backs and decided she wouldn’t make a good wife. The other elimination was some sort of small four-legged animal with a strange texture, almost like a horse’s coat. I didn’t realize she was part of the competition until she attended the rose ceremony.”

“Did you make a good impression?”

“I think I did! Adolin seems to like me at least, but he isn’t sold yet and I didn’t get a chance to talk to him. Tomorrow we’re going on group dates with Adolin, and we’re supposed to pick our own groups. I don’t know who I want to go with. I have to look good compared to the people I’m with, but the only other duelist has already made arrangements and I don’t really have any other skills. But what did you do today? Anything interesting happen?”

“You can worry about your date with Brightlord Kholin later. Tonight, you’re going out with me.”

“Oh!” exclaimed Mehdan in surprise, almost falling backwards onto the bed. “Let me just change into something more suitable. Where are we going?”

Temlin got up and began walking towards the door. “Taln’s Alms. It’s a winehouse I found while I was exploring the surroundings earlier today.”

Mehdan hesitated. “And… you’re sure that you want me to go with you? You don’t have to spend time with me if you’d rather go by yourself, or with someone else.”

“I’m asking you to come. I’ll be waiting just outside when you’re ready.”

Mehdan flushed. “I’ll get ready as quickly as I can.”

Fifteen minutes later she appeared wearing trousers and a dark red coat over a linen shirt.

Temlin stared. “When did you get those? I’ve never seen you wear anything like that.”

Mehdan shuffled awkwardly. “I’ve had this for years, but I finally like the way it looks on me. Do you not like it? Should I go change again?”

“No, if you’re comfortable wearing that you should keep it. It’s just that I would never have been allowed to dress like that back home.”

“Being forced to wear clothes like this wasn’t any fun either,” Mehdan muttered. “Except all I had to face was my parents’ disapproval, while your family depended on the income you made by keeping your employers happy. If you want, I can give you the spheres to buy whatever clothes you want.”

“We’ll discuss that later. For now, let’s start walking. We’ll want to get there early.”

“Right,” Mehdan replied, beginning to walk beside Temlin. “Now, did you want to tell me about your day?”

 

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