Anniversary Game 8 / AN11: Back to Beginnings

[Coral Swan]

3 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

First off, why is everyone praising Ja Rule? Eminem dissed his career off way back in 2006  

That’s just me and Su (and Zebra). Go to the coppermind and search ‘Jaism’, or read the cosmetic role list El provided on the first post of the game. Alternatively you can ask Su but I’d advise against that unless you legitimately want to be converted. (Not that he’s succeed in converting you if you didn’t want to be, just that you won’t be able to handle him if you ask without wanting to be.)

Rest if your post looks good I think

1 hour ago, Saffron Iguana said:

I doubt Meerkat would intentionally use faulty data to craft a misleading argument, because it is so easily disproven. 

I like the approach of voting off someone who killed a villager last round, although I'm struggling to figure out who was evil that was leading at any point. My best guesses are Swan and Gorilla, but I don't feel great about either. Perhaps some of those one vote wagons never took off because there was no Spiked willing to be the usual second vote, but it feels unlikely that we were completely wrong all day. 

I would ascribe zero percent probability to this tbh, regardless of Meerkat’s alignment

I find it funny how you’re the second person to theorize me/Gorilla as both elims. That makes zero sense to me.

I guess technically you never said that you think we’re teammates, so you could view it as how I view you and Gorilla.

Praise the Ja!

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

4 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

I'm not sure why you think that's irrelevant since the side-train ended up becoming the main train. It's worth looking at the point that the side-train evolved into a serious contender for the main train, because we want to ask if that's hostile activity or not, what was the instigation, do the reasons and motivations hold up with their actions, or do we think there's something more sinister at work. To put it another way, if we want to scrutinise the Gorilla-Crocodile-Iguana tie that killed a regular Villager, then we want to look at movements onto the train and in particular, movements that progress the train or bring it into serious contention.

Ah right, my bad, I interpreted that as suspicion on Octopus for going off the main train and hiding in side-trains. In that case, it would be irrelevant because when the side train became main train, their purpose of doing so to hide is lost. 

3 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said:

Hey Ostrich, are you a blunt edged sword, because all you've got is a good point!

Hey Iguana, I wanted to say this in my previous post, but loving those puns! Keep 'em coming! (er, if we don't kill you this cycle, that is )

3 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said:

I doubt Meerkat would intentionally use faulty data to craft a misleading argument, because it is so easily disproven. 

I didn't imply this anywhere, did I? Because I don't mean to, Meerkat would never do this. 

3 hours ago, Saffron Iguana said:

Why is Beagle in the evil tier for you?

Anything I haven't explicitly explained, it's just a gut read.

[Emerald Falcon]

Funny how sometimes all someone has to do is post the bare minimum to get some at least mild Village reads.

All my village reads, tiers are sorted. The bottom tier isn't necessarily less of a village read, but it's a read based on the same thing: reacting to thread pressure. Zebra, despite getting a little pressure did nothing but keep RPing and popping in whenever he wanted- not really seeming to care what thread felt. Gorilla was the same way kind of, perhaps a little more defensive. Just kept RPing and doing his own thing. 

Penguin
Meerkat
Coral
Heron
Fuschia

Violet
Pearl
Hyena

Zebra
Gorilla

[Amethyst Scorpion]

7 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Not leaning either way on Hyena, my main point of disagreement - their conclusion that Iguana feels more evil than Gorilla whereas I feel like they're equally evil. Someone mentioned this but when it was 3-3-3 and Gorilla voted for Iguana, Iguana did not self-pres vote back at Gorilla but voted for Crocodile instead [whoever mentioned this please let me know and link that post, I need to give you village points ] . To explain this a bit further, at 3-3-3 Gorilla has to choice between voting for Crocodile or Iguana, and they choose Iguana citing Croc as their top village trust [I need to check if they mention it before but if they did, then they'd want to keep it consistent and voting for Croc would change that. In case Iguana was their evil teammate, then they'd know there's a vote manip on its way and voting on them would be fine]. This post here, Iguana asks for a compromise from Gorilla and a vote on Croc, which is weird because Gorilla's just mentioned that Croc is their highest trust read. 4-4-3 is the score and [if they're evil] they know that with evil vote manip, Mauve dies. That's when Scorpion votes for Gorilla so I'm not quite understanding where the vote cancel on Gorilla came from? You know what, the more I think about it the more it seems waaaay too elaborate and it's making my head hurt. I'll take a break from these two and come back to them later, but basically they're in conversation for today's vote for me. Need to re-read in iso-mode later. Coming back to Hyena, I felt like there was a difference in the way they approached the two ISOs, biased towards Iguana, making the conclusion seem like they are more evil than Gorilla. Don't have any evidence to back this, but just the feel I got reading the ISOs.

Gorilla did mention trusting Crocodile and Chameleon on page 7 as a PM read which would have made voting for Crocodile risky. Crocodile and Gorilla both had three people voting for them at the time, so there wasn't any survival reason for Iguana to vote for Crocodile instead of Gorilla, except that Gorilla might have tried to ensure their survival by voting Crocodile but Crocodile was not around to switch their vote. If Gorilla and Iguana were teammates, they would either need multiple vote manipulators, a single rioter [likely Gorilla who could remove a vote from themself while cancelling their own vote on Iguana], or be very bold/bloodthirsty. 

6 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

I'm going to come back and reevaluate the situation but I really don't like that Falcon said they got a Coinshot claim. I can't think of a good reason someone would claim that role to anyone if it was true, and believing someone who claims Coinshot to you seems weird. If you have an explanation Falcon I would love to hear it.

Claiming to villagers is useful, but there's not enough to conclude Falcon as village even if many elims would hesitate to go after a villager for their playstyle and get them killed. Falcon lying about having heard from a Coinshot is helpful. Telling the truth about it less so.

[Coral Swan]

Anyone have a current VC?

Praise the Ja!

[Salmon Meerkat]

On the off-chance El and Fifth don't accept a retraction entitled Ocho: Scarlet Octopus. 

As far as I can tell, the current state of the votes is:

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Magenta Albatross (2): Amber Vulture, Turquoise Gorilla
Onyx Flamingo (2): Mint Heron, Fuchsia Ostrich
Pearl Chameleon (2): Saffron Iguana, Violent Axoltl
Scarlet Octopus (1): @Oxblood Beagle (bro I made a mistake in the vc which Heron pointed out so if u weren't sold on Ocho before, this is your chance to switch.), Salmon Meerkat<1>
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Coral Swan
Saffron Iguana (2): Emerald Falcon<2>, Pearl Chameleon
Emerald Falcon (1): Magenta Albatross
Coral Swan (0): Emerald Falcon<1>

That gives us a tie for the lead trains. Way too close at the moment since we have four primary trains, and four secondary trains, and unless I am mistaken, we're currently around nine hours to rollover. That's way too many options for vote manip to play with since the secondary-primary train gap is basically a single vote. I don't feel like I'm going to be able to make it to rollover with how tired I am, although I still have a bit of time left in me.

@Coral Swan - Please appreciate this because I cut my longpost short just to add this for you.

[Charcoal Hyena]

 

8 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Not leaning either way on Hyena, my main point of disagreement - their conclusion that Iguana feels more evil than Gorilla whereas I feel like they're equally evil.
...
Coming back to Hyena, I felt like there was a difference in the way they approached the two ISOs, biased towards Iguana, making the conclusion seem like they are more evil than Gorilla. Don't have any evidence to back this, but just the feel I got reading the ISOs.

I'm glad you brought this up because it's something I didn't really think about enough while looking at their posts in a vacuum. Although I began my isolations with no preconceptions of either player, some naturally developed as I sifted through their content. In Saffron's case, I found them quickwitted and well-articulated (shorter, more deliberate use of wording) in more than just their frequent puns, which allowed me to look at their posts with greater scrutiny. As a result of their style, I feel like I understand Saffron better than Turquoise. However, what I failed to understand about Saffron was their constant "heckling" of others without voting, which I felt made little sense from a village perspective. They've since responded to this during N1, which I'll address in a moment, but as that trend continued and by the time Saffron had finally voted, it stood out to me as a red flag. That + knowing they were saved by vote manipulation + seeing they voted for Mauve (a Villager) + the weirdness with not voting Gorilla when Gorilla just voted them led to a firmer conclusion.

On the other hand, my progression through Gorilla's posts was a very different experience. While they did withhold their vote for a really long time, Gorilla's posts were never analysis-heavy or confrontational. My impression is they were more focused on having fun than solving, which is fairly standard on D1 for players when so little concrete information is known. Their playstyle specifically reminds me of a few people I know who get executed early for similar reasons (low-hanging fruit), which I've seen flip village too often. That + their detached EoD with no apparent fear of death (something often seen with elims) + the fact they didn't vote for Mauve, the only known villager, leaves me feeling neutral about them. Gorilla still very well could be an elim, but at that current moment, I didn't see enough evidence for it; especially not in comparison to Saffron.

That all said, I do still want to look at the votes against Turquoise and Saffron both, to see if other people saw anything that I didn't.

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Mauve Crocodile (4): Emerald Falcon, Fuchsia Ostrich, Onyx Flamingo, Saffron Iguana
Saffron Iguana (3): Magenta Albatross, Mauve Crocodile, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Coral Swan, Scarlet Octopus, Violet Axolotl

• Mauve Crocodile --> Saffron Iguana (Because "Saffron has said a good amount and I'm still left with no read" and wants to "see what happens")
• Turquoise Gorilla --> Saffron Iguana (Replaces their Coral vote from 5 hours ago with a Saffron vote 4 minutes before rollover with the explanation "I really don't want to see either croc or me exed... I've been reading Saffron pretty null, but I don't want either me or my top village read to die here.")
• Saffron Iguana --> Mauve Crocodile (Follows up an Albatross reactionary vote [7 minutes before rollover] with an unexplained Crocodile vote [2 minutes before rollover]. What's most notable is that they ask Turquoise [who just voted for them] to compromise on Croc [who Turq just said they read village], which suggests they don't know about the impending vote manipulation and want to sway more people into saving their life. 

Just comparing Turquoise and Saffron's votes alone leaves me feeling better about the former (presented logic + consistency). Even more since Saffron voted for a known villager, while Turquoise voted for an unknown. Looking at them both, E/E doesn't feel likely, while V/E and V/V remain possible.

• Pearl Chameleon --> Saffron Iguana

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I think I am going to switch my vote from Coral Swan back to Saffron Iguana. The discussion about why Swan voted the way they did and some PM discussions has made me rethink my suspicion of Swan and be willing to vote on someone who does not have any votes on them. I will move my vote from Iguana if it looks like that train will not go anywhere near the end of the turn.

Without the context of their original vote, this doesn't say much, so let's go back.

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In the interest of spurning further discussion, I shall place the first vote of the game on Saffron Iguana, for relying far too much upon the distribution of the previous incarnation of this game for their analysis of this game. No two games, even with the same rules, will ever be the same. Especially with different GMs. Ah, they have now posted again. Their explanation is not satisfactory for my tastes. My stance on meta is to never expect anything to be the same as it was last time, because GMs can and have mixed things up specifically to counteract current meta trends.

Because this vote was so early in the game, it lacks the context of the future. It was actually this post that I mindmelded with Pearl at the start, since I also considered voting Saffron for the exact same reason during my first read-through of the thread. Is Saffron focusing on past distrubition inherently elim? Absolutely not, since many villagers think about these things on D1 all the time. That doesn't make it particularly productive, however, and could be deliberately used by an Elim to distract the thread. It seems to me nothing Saffron did throughout the day alleviated Pearl's concerns, which makes sense because I felt worse about them by the end of the day.

Quote

If it came down to Swan and Gorilla, I would probably sooner see Gorilla be exed, I'm afraid

But I'm not too jazzed about either of those options, and we aren't nearly close enough to the end of the cycle to be locked in. I slightly trust Gorilla and moderately trust Swan.

I think

I think I will try my luck with Saffron Iguana @Saffron Iguana

On the basis that they have said a good amount and I am still left with no read, which is a lil sussy in its own way

And on the basis that I brought the idea up with Chameleon (who, by the by, I am still kinda suspicious of, but the fact that the main reason Chameleon is no longer up for exe is because the past voters of Chameleon changed their mind and not because outside peoples defended them bumps them up a little in my reads)

And on the basis that I wanna see what happens

I could definitely be persuaded to vote for Zebra, who I am realizing has posted three whole times and hasn't quite said anything, no offense Zebra

Once again, "said a good amount and I am still left with no read." While I personally found their challenges against other players were well thought-out, they never went anywhere (no votes), which is what made me lean elim. To me, it felt like an elim throwing stuff out and seeing what sticks in the minds of others without ever committing themselves.

Quote

Saffron Iguana 

I don't even know what to say about my vote. 3 way tie could be interesting, though Iguana can easily self save as they haven't voted. Vote manip could also shake things up and provide information or not. We've had lots of vote shifting today, most of which was hard for me to keep up on while at work and then having limited time to try to analyze things. All three of them have been active so I think any of them being exed is going to give us some sort of information at least.

14 minutes before rollover, Magenta deliberately ties Saffron with both Turquoise and Mauve for information, which actively puts their life at risk. Saffron fires back with a vote on Magenta, then immediately bargains with Turquoise to vote Mauve with them after Turqoise votes against then. Both of these votes come with very little explanation and feel panicky, which further supports my elim read.

Now, for the other wagon...

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All the while, Dyring had also been putting his mind to the task of working out who might be working to destroy the town’s defenses. There were plenty of folks figuring on how many saboteurs there might be, and what Allomancy powers the townsfolk might have. That was all ash in the wind as far as Dyring was concerned. The best place to start looking was at folks that were trying to look useful while not really helping. And in his mind, that award went to Turquoise Gorilla. 

Very early in the turn, Violet lays the first vote on Turquoise for quoting a bunch of people and only responding to one. A reasonable D1 vote from my PoV, but at that stage in the game, nothing I would consider damning with my current read of Turquoise's playstyle.

Quote

And for the benefit of everyone else, I'll mention here that the PM Chameleon just sent me I believe comes from a village mindset (this no doubt adds to Meerkat's paranoia that Chameleon and I are e/e, which I honestly just find hilarious). I'm moving off of Chameleon for that reason, and onto Gorilla for their opportunistic vote just now. I'm aware that puts me as the leading train but I'm alright with that seeing how fluid the count has been, and considering those who are voting me.

...

@Turquoise Gorilla

Any comments on the irony of voting me when you say I'm a null for you, but most people's reason for voting me is that I voted a null read?  Yes, I know the scenarios aren't the same but I still thought it was funny.

Coral react votes to Turquoise voting them, pointing out the irony of the reason; Swan was previously voted for voting their null read, while Turquoise reads Swan null and thus is open to voting them. While I agree that I don't agree with the earlier votes against Swan, I find Gorilla's vote consistent with their playstyle, which could believably come from either alignment.

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The consensus is off Chameleon, and I won't be back for any considerable amount of time until after rollover, and I'm null on Hyena, and null with just a hint of lime on Swan, so Gorilla it is. If I get time and the exe moves to Pearl again I will vote them.

Scarlet doesn't offer any reasoning for their vote, so I can only assume Gorilla is null- for them and would rather see them dead over the others at risk.

Quote

So the Pearl votes have completely dissolved and now it's Turquoise and Mauve tied at three. Now, Saffron is also up there. The Mauve votes feel like they happened suddenly even though the first vote was a while ago. Fuchsia had a bad gut read of Mauve, Onyx thought they were being defensive, Emerald has detailed and more aggressive than I'd expect an elim to be willing to be reasoning to vote Mauve. The wanting to go for Quartz instead of Saffron or Pearl, or Gorilla, or any other less active, is the more pertinent detail. Turquoise is fun because they were reading Pearl and Mauve as village back when those were viable alternatives, and also didn't think much of voting for Charcoal, all of which limit their options. Nothing stops multiple of those from being evil. Saffron pushes a revenge vote on someone with none despite being tied for the lead, which strikes me as wrong. Gorilla has now voted. I don't like getting ties on purpose. I don't feel great about Saffron. I really don't like this late minute push on them so I'll vote Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla and see what hapens.

Amethyst doesn't like Saffron but also doesn't like the last minute push on them. Says they don't like getting ties on purpose, but votes Turquoise for village reading Pearl/Mauve early and thus limiting their options.

 

Having looked at this all, my isolations still feel accurate. None of these votes against them are based on incredible evidence, yet Saffron's EoD appears scrambly to me, which makes sense for an elim who didn't know they'd be at risk of getting exed so late in the turn. In one of the Mafia Championship games I participated in, something like this happened on D1 with an elim, so I wouldn't be surprised if that's what happened here. Meanwhile, the Turquoise wagon still feels like a low-hanging fruit situation, which simply means I need more from that slot before I can move it out of Neutral.

 

Now, to address Saffron's response to my isolation.

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I can answer a lot of your suspicions with my cosmetic role is Helpful Heckler. I wasn't planning on voting that round if I hadn't had to. It's a conscious, experimental playstyle choice.

I'll admit, up until you pointed this out, I completely forgot about Cosmetic Roles and never considered it as a factor in gameplay (I assumed it'd be isolated to RP). While that does perhaps explain your playstyle from a villager perspective, it also makes for a very convenient way for e!You to write suspicious actions off. Either way, the reality is you helped execute a villager, and nothing you've done yet has given me enough reason to believe you're village. The fact remains that you are an unknown counter wagon that was saved by vote manipulation, which means your flip will provide critical information regarding D1s events regardless. Thus, Saffron Iguana. If you are indeed a villager, I implore you to show me it with your actions. It's the second half of round two now and you haven't voted. Who do you want to see lynched most and why? I've seen you Heckle, now let me see Helpful!

---

edit:

Now that I finally got that done with, I'm going to comb through N1/D2 again and figure out my reads list. These isolations have left me with the unintended side effect of taking me out of the present, and thus I'd like to zoom out and figure out the broader picture. 

 

Edited January 8, 2022 by Charcoal Hyena

[Oxblood Beagle]

4 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

bro I made a mistake in the vc which Heron pointed out so if u weren't sold on Ocho before, this is your chance to switch.

I am still suspicious of Swan, and thus Octo, as I don't see how the mistake in the count makes that aspect look any better. It actually kind of makes it look worse.

However, in the interest of not having a 4-way tie in the votes, and getting some answers about the last day turn, Iguana (Octo/Ostrich since I didn't green out my first vote).

[Coral Swan]

14 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

@Coral Swan - Please appreciate this because I cut my longpost short just to add this for you.

thank u

In all honesty I barely skimmed the recent posts- as I bluetexted yesterday I suddenly got a lot less time to do the game. Sorry.

Iguana is fine. I’m staying on Gorilla for now because that is where I feel most comfortable. I’m kind of tempted to vote Flamingo in the interest of further saving Alb though.

Praise the Ja!

[Pearl Chameleon]

3 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Iguana is fine. I’m staying on Gorilla for now because that is where I feel most comfortable. I’m kind of tempted to vote Flamingo in the interest of further saving Alb though.

can you explain the flamingo votes?? also why you trust alb? i have them in a big other pile in my reads list, tho half the time i'm tempted to toss them in my elim pile

[Salmon Meerkat]

16 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

I am still suspicious of Swan, and thus Octo, as I don't see how the mistake in the count makes that aspect look any better. It actually kind of makes it look worse.

how so?

[Coral Swan]

29 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

can you explain the flamingo votes?? also why you trust alb? i have them in a big other pile in my reads list, tho half the time i'm tempted to toss them in my elim pile

You’d have to ask the people actually voting them, but I personally think their voting pattern has been weird and I generally get a negative gut from their posts (with the exception of their first post). I’ve explained why I trust Alb probably twice; I’d go to page two to find that

Praise the Ja!

[Pearl Chameleon]

14 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

You’d have to ask the people actually voting them, but I personally think their voting pattern has been weird and I generally get a negative gut from their posts (with the exception of their first post). I’ve explained why I trust Alb probably twice; I’d go to page two to find that

Praise the Ja!

I cannot even remember much of how Flamingo has voted, besides, I believe, an odd vote for Axolotl at one point, yes? That does not feel like enough, for myself at least, to condemn someone over. And I have seen your posts about Albatross. I have also went and read back over their initial reaction to seeing which kill had hit them and which had hit Lion. That initial reaction especially feels very forced to me, having reread it. Though I might be looking for shadows where there are none. I also think that Iguana is a much safer choice for an exe, as I have not liked their reads and tone for most of the game so far. Plus their heckling without consistent voting to back it up is an easy thing to hide behind.

[Violet Axolotl]

By the time Dyring finished painting over the mess on the wall of his inn, the day was late enough for some customers to start trickling in for drinks. Unfortunately, he hadn’t had enough time to clean the porch from the morning’s ashfall, but work came before... other work. The guests paid better than the chairs, and there wouldn’t be an inn without the guests. Still, Dyring took a few minutes to at least clean off the front door. His sign requesting help had gone missing during the night, so he posted the request again before settling in to the routine of serving drinks.

---

I’m currently happy with how the votes are playing out, given my suspicion of Iguana. However, I’d also like to reiterate my dislike of the votes around Pearl last cycle. In the last LG, in addition to other times in the past, elims have ignored large numbers of votes early in D1 on one of their teammates (or even added to them) because such trains tend to die following a response like Meerkat’s (and generally a villager is the one bringing the objection if the target is elim). I’m short on time, but I did look at Pearl’s posts and nothing stuck out to me as particularly villagery. So I’ll request that anyone feeling like their vote is currently being wasted consider switching onto Pearl.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Violet Axolotl

[Oxblood Beagle]

47 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

how so?

Because with both of their votes swapping from Cham to Gorilla, Swan was in the same amount of danger, or less so because the push for Cham was already dying. Like elims swapping targets before it grew too dangerous in hopes of getting a more solid train to oppose the one on a teammate. 

If I'm alone in this, though, I'll not vote on either of them, as I'd rather have an exe which vote manips can't influence.

[Pearl Chameleon]

7 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

because such trains tend to die following a response like Meerkat’s (and generally a villager is the one bringing the objection if the target is elim). I’m short on time, but I did look at Pearl’s posts and nothing stuck out to me as particularly villagery.

do you wanna explain these parts more?? because i am confused about what this is even saying lol

[Onyx Flamingo]

15 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

"Edeis (Onyx Flamingo), stop doing your hair and come down here. Though you may be a stunning beauty, your wits are apparently non-existent. Or, perhaps, you are a Spiked fiend, who tried to save your compatriot the gameshow host. Either way, I want an answer for your behavior.

 

9 hours ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Heron very village wrt last post. Particularly the Flamingo part, because I was about to bring Onyx to notice myself. In addition to Heron's points, after Onyx's vote, Mauve responds giving reasons/explanations to Onyx's suspicions but Onyx does not react to that at all, even though they post after that. If they believed the explanation was insufficient, they would have told so and firmed their vote. But the fact that they didn't do this reads to me like they are trying to make sure their vote goes unseen and does not raise too much noise. They ignore Onyx's defense, make sure their vote stays and Mauve dies. Note that at this point the score was 3-2-2 [Gorilla, Croc, Iguana] and Onyx puts Croc on level terms with Gorilla. Possible Gorilla/Flamingo team here.

I'm going to be super honest with y'all here: I checked out of the game quite heavily after getting sick irl with what may or may not be the thing that's going on in the world rn :/. I'm on the mend though, and will be back in the game with genuine thoughts soon. For now, though, I've been letting myself a break.

Now, as for in game reasoning: I wasn't reading Gorilla as elim. I just could not figure out where the elim suspicion was coming from, and I think that was partly because I was mixing everyone up. I'm going to go back and reread D1/N1 and get a better read on everyone. I'll admit it, my D1 vote was not good, because I had no good reasoning to vote for anyone so I took my best gut guess, as I normally do D1 in other games I've played.

As for right now...

I'm getting elimmy vibes from Falcon. I don't like them outing that they've got a correspondence from the coinshot. However, idk if an elim would be brave enough to admit something like that in thread. I think it's a bluff to gain village points, tbh.

Not sure how to feel about Albatross. I've played one too many games with elim thugs, and if our coinshot is village, then the likelihood of there being an elim!thug is high. Not enough evidence to exe Alb though, since I think their posts are good. I have a weird read on them, don't exe yet.

I'm going to have to agree with Hyena wrt Iguana. So far, that's my strongest elim read, and considering the thread is so conflicted about them it might just be worth it to exe them and get our answers. That probably sounds aggressive lol. The somewhat panicking at the end of a cycle is the big tip off for me.

Edeis will return to thread when she gets over the sickness she caught from me XD (ie, when I have creative juices flowing again and can write her properly :P)

[Violet Axolotl]

21 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

do you wanna explain these parts more?? because i am confused about what this is even saying lol

In the last LG elim!Sart got 3 votes early D1 (someone, then elim!Araris, then Kas). None of the elims reacted (other than Araris’s vote), and eventually people just moved on. It wasn’t perfect, because Sart died in a tie later, but had players been more active, Sart probably wouldn’t have been voted out that game. The situation with the votes on you D1 looks similar to me.

[Salmon Meerkat]

1 minute ago, Violet Axolotl said:

In the last LG elim!Sart got 3 votes early D1 (someone, then elim!Araris, then Kas). None of the elims reacted (other than Araris’s vote), and eventually people just moved on. It wasn’t perfect, because Sart died in a tie later, but had players been more active, Sart probably wouldn’t have been voted out that game. The situation with the votes on you D1 looks similar to me.

cld i ask how many of these teams have araris on them

just out of curiosity

[Violet Axolotl]

1 minute ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

cld i ask how many of these teams have araris on them

just out of curiosity

That one did, I can’t say about the others, that is more a vague feeling that this has happened before. But Araris has also been elim a lot recently, so who knows.

[Salmon Meerkat]

1 minute ago, Violet Axolotl said:

That one did, I can’t say about the others, that is more a vague feeling that this has happened before. But Araris has also been elim a lot recently, so who knows.

axl

i like ur style

but when u say this

i start to sideeye u 2

Spoiler

i dt think i think u r wrng

bt somehow

just somehow

[Chartreuse Penguin]

I've been rereading the thread so updated reads list time!!!!!

Village: Emerald Falcon, Violet Axolotl, Pearl Chameleon, Salmon Meerkat, Coral Swan, Fuchsia Ostrich

Elim-ish: Amber Vulture 

Elim: Magenta Albatross, Charcoal Hyena, Ivory Dragonfly, Scarlet Octopus

Combine my elim reads with my elim-ish read, and you got a semi-plausible elim team!  5 aint a bad guess eh?

Also all the vote counts posted this turn have been trynna gaslight my vote on Albatross out of existence  Right now there's a total of 3 votes on them.

[Saffron Iguana]

Am I a paper weight, because I finally got on desktop. 

I’m not going to defend my playstyle, because I’m intentionally experimenting with one I’ve been dismissive of in past to see if it has merit, but I will try and explain it. I’m only voting when I’m confident of a read, I’m not making reads lists or backreading much, and I’m trusting my gut to guide my decisions.

I know it’s an annoying playstyle to read, and I’m a talkative person anyway, so I’ve been trying to provide enough commentary for you to get an idea of my mindset. I know that part of the game involves helping you read others, but for the time being, the most I’m hoping for is something I say makes you dwell on a post long enough to connect dots that turn into a fully flushed read. I figured in a game of this size, I could take the backseat without tanking our chances and maybe even come up a clutch performance down the stretch.

D1, I knew I’d picked up a few votes and was planning on ignoring them until I think it was Albatross’ that made me worry. I disliked their reasoning and was confident they were evil, but I had to backtrack when Gorilla also voted for me. I was prepared to vote in protest, but not if it meant dying, so I switched. I didn’t read Gorilla’s post properly – I just saw red (literally) – and my quick calculation was that if I vote Gorilla, their vote will stick for sure, whereas if I vote for Crocodile, they might move if they’re village. Those situations are pretty unwinnable, but at least I would survive, which created a chance that a Spiked would die. Plus, the pun came easier and that was important to me.

Suspects:

Hyena’s giving me a lot of grief about a self-preservation vote. Swan and Octopus ended up voting together and it looks to me like Octopus was shielding Swan during D1. Falcon probably isn’t Swan’s teammate, but they voted off Mauve, made an odd declaration about the coinshot, and somebody talkative has to be evil, right. There’s up to seven of them. Axolotl, Beagle, and Heron were on near rollover.  

Ironic Nulls:

It would be convenient if Gorilla was Spiked because then we could implicate a lot of people. Dingo has an excuse for lurking, but they were still there at the end of D1, which is the traditional time for an evil meet-n-greet.

Albatross (not Gorilla’s teammate) voted for the tie, but then didn’t push for my death as hard as they could have today. Scorpion provided a summary with their final vote, but they also attracted attention by breaking the tie.

Trusts:

I trust Meerkat’s read about the Chameleon wagon seeing little pushback. Meerkat’s explained optimal Spiked strategy D1 when they didn’t need to. Vulture didn’t vote and their style makes them hard enough to read that I suggest leaving them a Spiked flips.

Reads I Might Come Back To:

I have a fun theory about Meerkat’s Octopus vote. The thread went dead after that, and I wonder if that was because the Spiked, who drive a lot of discussion, didn’t want to second a vote they knew might be retracted. They either knew Octopus was innocent and therefore noticed the mistake more easily, or wanted to protect them so they (I mean Heron) made a long post clearing them. For risking an awkward retraction, Beagle looks good off that. This is a longshot guess, by the way.

I don’t think more than one Spiked would post a vote count, at least not near rollover, which adds to the Albatross and Gorilla aren’t connected theory. They likely had an internal one in the doc going. Not sure if Gorilla reposted it in his post where he just wrote the votes, or if he was just checking if he was going to die.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

I wanna talk about Octopus

The tone in their first post reads kinda impassive like idk they seem to sound very matter-of-fact about the role distros? And then they place a 'loose vote' on Cham in the same post, which, conversely, reads kinda hedgey. Their next couple of posts are also about role distro, I'll mark these as NAI. Then there's this post where they say they 'might be tunnelling' on Cham, which strikes me as odd because I wouldnt say they were even close to tunnelling? Cuz like literally the only other time they'd talked about Cham was in their first post when they placed their vote on Cham (roughly three hours prior to this). I wouldn't define that as tunnelling; this seems like the kinda overly-self-aware behaviour you'd expect to see from an elim, IMO. Then there's also like. A LOT of one-liner RP posts which seem like they're intended to make Octopus seem like they're an active contributor to the thread. Could just be that this is their playstyle, of course, but I have no way of verifying that. In this post they move their vote from Cham to Gorilla, promising to move back to Cham if the opportunity arises. This is weird too cuz at this point in time there were still about 4.5 hours left in the turn and Cham had 2 votes on them already, which wasn't too far off the lead exe. If Octopus really wanted Cham dead they couldve just let their vote sit on Cham for a littlw while longer; the votes were moving quite fluidly at this point so a cham exe was still very much within the realm of possibilities. And then there's this post which I simply just dont agree with.

Would love to say more but I'd love to sleep before sunrise more so, ciao 

[Coral Swan]

I’ve actually read the posts on this page now, look at me :D. (Edit: smh of course this is on a new page.) I don’t like how fast the Iguana votes piled up. Hyena’s post looks to me like it has a slight case of confirmation bias; it’s well constructed but I think if they can write Gorilla off for playstyle they definitely could see Iguana’s behavior as playstyle as well- especially since Iguana has explained their playstyle and Gorilla hasn’t. @Charcoal Hyena, you responded to my Gorilla vote last cycle, what do you think of my reasoning for my Gorilla vote this cycle?

Beagle’s vote is hard to read as anything but a pile-on to me but I do have them as Null+/Light village from earlier so I dunno.

And I do like Iguana’s post just now, in the same way I liked Alb’s from earlier.

Gorilla, Flamingo. Not because Gorilla isn’t the person I want to exe the most, but because Flamingo is the the person I want to exe the most out of the available options. If everyone wants to switch to Gorilla I’ll join you :P. I wouldn’t be opposed to Octo either, definitely prefer them over Iguana at this point.

Praise the Ja!

Edited January 8, 2022 by Coral Swan