Anniversary Game 8 / AN11: Back to Beginnings

[Saffron Iguana]

15 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

I also have already recieved a PM from someone claiming the coin/shot, and I have a pretty solid village read on them

Are you unnecessarily renovating my backyard, because I don't like how you're narrowing that pool. 

If anyone receives a PM from the Seeker, kindly confirm their identity by asking them to tell you what your role is, then stay quiet about it until at least the last third of the round. The Spiked now know the alleged Coinshot trusts Falcon and Falcon trusts them, and that they have been on in the last 14 hours. There's probably only a handful of people that meet that description, and they can continue narrowing it down based on Falcon's future votes. 

[Coral Swan]

30 minutes ago, Turquoise Gorilla said:

Ok. What I’m trying to say is “I don’t have the motivation to make good, thought-out reads, so I’m like ‘ok, this person seems suspicious’ and I build other suspicions around that. It’s not an elim thing. It’s a me thing.”

I hope that helps.

It's understandable, but it's also a convenient thing for elims to do and confbaising reads and reasoning into existence isn't a good look regardless.

21 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Everything about Coral makes me want to suspect them, the most recent reason being this:

My question is what about Meerkat and Hyena makes you not want to kill that differentiates them from Vulture? All three are producing a high quantity of analysis, and that alone is not my reason for townreading them, which I don't quite do, but for wanting to not kill all three of them this turn. So what differentiates them for you?

This list is basically saying, in my mind, that anyone besides those top six people are ~fine votes to have and you are going to be fine if people vote there. This is an insanely large list. the reason I gave my coin/shot list is because it's not a group of people voting on who the coinshot kills. it's one person killing, and hopefully being right. With 18 names to vote across that you are supposedly "fine" with seeing people vote on, it feels like you are trying to produce a thread that is uncoordinated.

Perhaps I think everyone is more manipulative than they actually are, me being how I am as an Elim.

By the end of the day we should end with a pool of no more than 8 I believe, assuming the Elim team is 6. That's still a decent chunk of the playerlist and very wide. Perhaps smaller if you think Amber or Hyena are Elims, because I still don't want to kill them this early regardless.

You are... awfully flip-floppy on me, my friend

What differentiates them for me is Vulture's playstyle being NAI, and to put Vulture on the same level as Meerkat and Hyena (who I village read not for effort but for reasons beyond that) would just be an effort clear and I don't want to make just an effort clear.

Yes, that is what it's saying, and yes, that is a large list, but that's why the bottom half is two categories and not one. And it includes the inactives, who I doubt anyone would actively be upset if one died though they'd also be no one's first choice. I appreciate you complimenting my strategizing skills, but no, I didn't think far enough ahead to try to produce a list that would make the thread uncoordinated. I'm aware that my list isn't going to dictate the flow of the thread, I fail to see how it could be destructively 'uncoordinated'. It's my subjective opinion mostly fueled by how my gut reacts to imagining their death and nothing else.

Ah there it is lol

Take out the inactives in my list and you have a pool of 7. Perfect, according to your guidelines.

Something unexpected just came up, very fast. My activity will probably drop over the next few days but I'll still be able to play.

Praise the Ja!

[Emerald Falcon]

26 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said:

Are you unnecessarily renovating my backyard, because I don't like how you're narrowing that pool. 

Would you like to assign a read onto me based on it?

[Violet Axolotl]

Dyring was up bright and early, preparing the day's meals, and while fetching some water he found the messages disfiguring the side of his inn before anyone else. Scowling, he fetched some cleaning supplies, but after a couple of aborted attempts realized that he would be best off just repainting. Blasted Tineyes think they can leave graffiti wherever they please. I'd bet boxings to clips that at least one of them is Spiked. By that point, he could hear some of the guests movin gabout inside the common room, so he abandoned the efforts until later.

The easy routine of serving breakfast gave Dyring a chance to collect his thoughts on the events of the previous night and day.

---

Okay, so if D1 was a v/v/v, then the low-risk elim play is to not move votes. Let the village scramble and then get hopelessly lost in the aftermath. Someone with slightly higher tolerance might move their vote around simply because taking risks early is generally not expected of elims. But there wouldn't really be any other benefit. In this case we would expect elim votes spread around, almost certainly no more than two on a single target. And probably not doubling up, unless Pearl is elim (for reference, Pearl had several votes which all dropped away, which also happened to an elim in the last LG). If Pearl is elim, then I'd say that either Swan or Penguin is likely to be as well.

It also seems unlikely that both Gorilla and Iguana are elims, or the easy play is for them to vote together. Right now I'd probably lean toward Iguana over Gorilla, on account of the things I dislike about Gorilla looking more like playstyle things like elim things (I still dislike them though!). Also, with the Croc flip we can expect a slightly higher proportion of villagers voting for Iguana, for whatever that's worth.

So if Iguana is elim, who might we expect the other elims to be? If the elims have a rioter or zinc Mistborn, then we could expect one of them to actually be voting for Iguana. A rather safe way to get a bit of credibility. 

The last situation is e/e/v, which did come up in the last LG and was something the elims were able to take advantage of because of how the lack of vote action didn't fit super well with 2 elims being about to die. This does sort of match up with what happened in our D1, so I'm not going to discount it, despite both Gorilla and Iguana being active at cycle end and not working together.

I also have some other things I need to do, so I'm going to vote on Pearl and leave it at that for now. I'll definitely take some time to read Pearl's posts and try to come up with some other suspicions as well.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Violet Axolotl

[Coral Swan]

58 minutes ago, Saffron Iguana said:

Are you unnecessarily renovating my backyard, because I don't like how you're narrowing that pool.

That

is an incredibly good pun

Also why are you ignoring my PM

Praise the Ja!

[Pearl Chameleon]

I really think Falcon should have left this supposed Coinshot claim to themselves. Like Iguana said, you have now provided the elims enough information for them to narrow their search down even more for who the Coinshot is. Assuming you are telling the truth and that your Coinshot claimer is also telling the truth. I would ask for a reasoning from them for why they attacked Albatross, but at this point that would reveal too much about who they might be.

Anyway, I wanted to do my own quick version of a reads list, just going off the top of my head. Feel free to ask me questions about why certain players are in certain categories if you are confused. Also keep in mind the players in each category are not in any particular order.

Village: Chartreuse Penguin, Salmon Meerkat, 
Mild Village: Amber Vulture, Charcoal Hyena, Onyx Flamingo, Scarlet Octopous, 
Null:  Coral Swan (almost to mild village, however), Fuschia Ostrich, Melon Dingo, Mint Heron, Oxblood Beagle, Plum Rhinoceros, Sapphire Elephant, Sunburst Toucan,
Mild Elim: Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Emerald Falcon, Ivory Dragonfly, Quartz Zebra, Turquoise Gorilla, Violet Axolotl
Elim: Saffron Iguana

Other: Magenta Albatross. I cannot even put them in Null because I have so many conflicting thoughts about them, but they do not simply cancel each other out. On the one hand, they have given me relatively good vibes in our PM together. On the other hand, there is the bit with them seeming to pretend to be a new player. On the other, other hand, their latest post explaining things does make sense to me. A decision about my opinions on this player will come later, once I have thought more about them.

I am also not certain of all of my reads on the elim side, and highly doubt there are 7+ elims, unless the elim team has been balanced a bit weaker. Which can always backfire, when it comes to making balanced distributions. 

I think I am going to place my vote on Saffron Iguana, for now, because they are the only player I was able to convince myself to actually put in the full elim pile. I would also like to know why Iguana has not responded in our PM either.

[Emerald Falcon]

Out of curiosity, why do you put me in the Elim pile, where I am among those like Ivory, Zebra, Turquoise, and Azure? I think there's a stark difference there that there must be significant reasoning for me to end up there.

[Pearl Chameleon]

6 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Out of curiosity, why do you put me in the Elim pile, where I am among those like Ivory, Zebra, Turquoise, and Azure? I think there's a stark difference there that there must be significant reasoning for me to end up there.

i didn't have a category for somewhere between null and mild elim

or, well, i didn't want to make that category just for you

if that makes sense

but it's because i can't decide if your attempts at analysis are really villager-y like i thought, or if all of this business with a coinshot is to try and get you villager-y points, which would make me trust you less. so my real read of you would probably more something like a null-, which is an average of many different things

does that make sense?

[Salmon Meerkat]

1 hour ago, Magenta Albatross said:

To address some of the things going around about me, no, I never claimed to be new I just let that assumption go without correcting it cause it's sort of true depending on how you look at it. Without going into too much detail and possibly giving away my IRL identity, I haven't played SE in a long time so as far as meta and what the norms are I have no idea, and even then I've only played a handful of games, so I still wouldn't consider myself overly experienced and some things others might know I don't necessarily, but I'm also a former tournament judge for Magic the Gathering so rules interactions and stuff like that are totally my jam. So given how much of the D1 conversations were based off of assumptions due to what has happened before I had almost no clue what was going on, but once we had information I was able to make some deductions.

wb bro

unfortunately, my gut tells me i should b wary of u if i think u r who u r b/c u led me on a merry chase in a past life

Azure Mouse, Scarlet Octopus

At this point I'm on p.7 of my re-read through the D1 voting but it's clear I'm not flushing anyone out with an Azure Mouse vote, and I'm not very fond of Ocho's voting history. I am still committed to posting my full analysis, it's just going to take a bit longer than I expected as I'm still at p7 and trying to ascertain if I'm missing links in my current assessments/logic chains as some of my reads feel counterintuitive and I hope bringing my thoughts to the thread will result in greater clarity.

But, about Ocho.

My problem with Ocho in a nutshell:

I've always said that talking is a free action, and I like to look at votes because voting shows where a player's priorities are.

Vote situation before Ocho moves:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (0): Pearl Chameleon<1>=
Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>
Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1>
Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1>
Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>
Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2>
Coral Swan (3): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

After Ocho moves:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (0): Pearl Chameleon<1>=
Pearl Chameleon (2): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>
Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1>
Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1>
Turquoise Gorilla (2): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Scarlet Octopus<2>
Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2>
Coral Swan (3): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

What Ocho does:

Vote stayed on Cham all game, moves off Cham around four and a half hours to rollover, and goes onto Gorilla, a sidetrain. This puts Swan in the lead and increases the Gorilla side-train into a secondary train.

What Ocho says:

Wants Cham dead, will vote Cham if back in time and people want Cham dead (because apparently people don't want Cham dead anymore despite Cham being tied on the leading train before Ocho moved!), and is a null on hyena and a null with some sus on Swan so the logical answer is to vote Gorilla.

Because it makes so much sense to forgo a 50% chance of lynching your top suspect and 50% of lynching someone you are slightly sus of and turn that into 100% chance to lynch someone you are slightly sus of, 0% chance to vote top suspect, and something something Gorilla delenda est.

I don't like Ocho.

I do lean light Village on Cham now but this read is something I'm trying to summarise/spell out in the broader analysis post. I just wanted to throw this out there for discussion since Cham has featured, Ocho moves to Gorilla, one of the end trains, and also because Ochio's vote remained remarkably static for most of D1.

There's probably more content I'm not interacting with because everyone talks too much and now I understand why poor Orlok went stark bloody mad in QF50 and the perfect is the enemy of the good so I want to get this out first while I work on everything else.

Am I blatantly ignoring most of the thread? Yes. I can only handle one thread at a time, I am in my dotage, and D1 is threatening to end me  I commit to playing catch up since thread engagement is faster for me as I don't do deep post analysis most of the time.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat
Fixed formatting

[Coral Swan]

@Salmon Meerkat, I presume you read Gorilla more positively than negatively than?

Praise the Ja!

[Saffron Iguana]

22 minutes ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

 I don't like Ocho.

Hey Meerkat, do you possess Jason from Greek mythology's greatest crew members, because you've got the best argo-men so far. 

It appears you've tracked the vote movements, so can you tell us if you think Octopus moved in reaction to your post ,the one that killed the Chameleon wagon by saying there wasn't enough pushback to it, so they wanted to move to a safer vote, or was it in anticipation of teammate Swan becoming the leading wagon and needing a counter wagon, or was Swan unrelated to any of this?

1 hour ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Would you like to assign a read onto me based on it?

Yes please. 

1 hour ago, Coral Swan said:

That is an incredibly good pun

Also why are you ignoring my PM

Thank you! Not responding to any of the PMs sent my way is part of the playstyle I have adopted for this game. I mean no individual offence to anyone for ignoring them. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Saffron Iguana
Added question

[Emerald Falcon]

I almost think an Elim would be more compliant with working together or even volunteering thoughts, but at the end of the day I can't justify voting off of Iguana at least for the time being. So much of me wants to think he's a villager but I just can't. If anyone would like to try and change my mind, I'm all ears.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

2 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

I also have already recieved a PM from someone claiming the coin/shot, and I have a pretty solid village read on them. So, Moving on.

This is a bluff. Either you’re messing with the thread, Emerald, or this person has lied to you. Because I cannot conjure any reason  why anyone would truthfully claim coinshot and then allow you to announce that to the thread  

k bye gonna go sleep now will read/respond to the rest of the thread later 

[Turquoise Gorilla]

Meerkat’s stuff about Ocho makes a lot of sense. Perhaps I will be convinced to switch after doing a full-thread read thru, perhaps not. Idk.

[Salmon Meerkat]

1 hour ago, Coral Swan said:

@Salmon Meerkat, I presume you read Gorilla more positively than negatively than?

Praise the Ja!

It's actually something that troubles me about my current read  Intuitively I dislike Gorilla's behaviour in the current thread, and find it somewhat shady. And I think some of Gorilla's votes are weird. My issue with my current analysis is that if I assign moderate or light credence to Cham being Village, I seem to be reasonably committed to:

• Swan being Village (moderate commitment, with some assumptions on Elim behaviour built in)
• Gorilla possibly being Village (again, given some assumptions on Elim behaviour)
• Ocho being weird and possibly Evil

To be sure, this appears as far as I can tell to be internally consistent. But I don't like counterintuitive results, and I think that if my gut dislikes the player's behaviour and my current analysis suggests they might be Village, then I need to sit down and look at whether I've made a wrong assumption or a bad inference.

Essentially, there are always two choices. When reasoning commits you to a conclusion, you can accept the reasoning and conclusion as correct, or you can decide the conclusion has to be wrong, in which case something has gone wrong with the logic. Which is one reason why I want to get the entire analysis thread up at once, so more eyes can look at it and see how my reasoning process works because I'm tired, been working late nights, and I'm going in paranoia spirals by this point  I'm very tempted to jettison the conclusion because my gut cannot agree with a light Village read on Gorilla and I don't even feel happy putting them in null. I think the reasons behind Gorilla's votes are often at the very least weird, and I'm trying to decide if I think they are weird in an Evil way, or just weird in a 'people do be like that' way.

With that being said:

Ocho being Evil might suggest Cham is Evil too (so it is compatible) because Ocho makes that counterintuitive (by Ocho's own stated desires/lights) move to pull off the Cham-Swan tie, so we have Ocho/Swan not E/E because Ocho damns Swan and lightly endangers Gorilla to save Cham. But I think it's compatible with E Gorilla as well - light distancing, did not expect train to take off, maybe had vote manip in pocket, and Ocho really couldn't make it back in time so just parked and assumed teammates would make sure everything was okay. But I don't weight that as being more likely, no, since it requires more assumptions to be baked in to make sense.

So I don't think Ocho's alignment is necessarily tightly connected to Gorilla's - if I were to compare them, I think the connection to Swan's and to Cham's is stronger.

Let me give you a snapshot of the problem.

• I'm somewhat committed to Cham being Village (hence light Village read) - I have about a 0.9 credence in Cham's player identity based off Cham's linguistic behaviour (decent match for player), demonstration of knowledge in personal interactions that specific player would have, chronology a match for player's; moreover, chronology in this player's case should be considered distinctive or uniquely identifying, weakly corroborated by thread behaviour and thread reactions, moderately corroborated by onshard and historical offshard interactions (to be clear, using previous onshard and offshard interactions as a baseline, this player behaves consistently within accepted parameters), and displays strong familiarity with the player I'm impersonating. So this is a fairly robust evidential basis - I'm willing to accept I could be wrong, but for comparison, I'm 0.95 certain about Vulture and about Hyena.
   
• Cham's behaviour deviates from the player identity's Elim meta. Player identity has previously a tendency to be sensitive to/bow to thread pressure when Evil. Cham seems to be pushing own views in disputes with players instead of giving in and I read interactions with Swan, arguments with me and with Axl as instances in which Cham sticks to own guns despite having been the leading train for a decent chunk of D1. Link here for the start of the section with Cham. Just read the exchange, all the way to with Axl. It's possible that E!Cham felt more relaxed knowing his team had vote manip to save him, so this is a defeasible line of argument, but I am not too convinced as I think it's reasonable for an Elim team to not want to prematurely reveal their capabilities to the Village if they don't have to. Also, another place this argument could fail is, obviously, if I am mistaken about my ID read on Cham, or Cham has changed his Evil meta since.
   
• I stand by my view that there was very little response to Cham's train dominating. I take Scorp's point that maybe there wasn't that much pressure until late in the cycle, or that the Elims were playing splinter-train tactics instead, so let's look at potential splinter-trains that arise in response to Cham pressure:
   

  Quote

  Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl
  Melon Dingo (1): Coral Swan<2>
  Coral Swan (1): Oxblood Beagle
  Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

  
  These are single-vote trains that emerge after Cham train becomes dominant, between my vote first going on Cham and to the point I left the Cham train for the second time, going onto Gorilla. Main problem with these splinter trains is they're all passive, or that's my read of them. Splinter trains suggest Elims trying to start other trains to offload votes or entice Villagers to help outcompete the existing dominant train. But Axl, Swan, Beagle, and Ostrich mostly just drop votes and go. They don't interact with other players, not in the context of trying to solicit votes onto their trains. Swan is more active in thread but I don't see too much investment in calling an airstrike on Melon Dingo. I think that's where I agree with Falcon about the cycle temperature - we really see more collective bargaining and attempts to sway people towards the end where the three way tie is involved. But I'm currently on p7 of D1 in my analysis so I can't say anything about that point yet and probably have more Gorilla-Iguana analysis to do too."
   
• Moreover, Swan and Cham don't seem very E/E to me because Cham ends up creating a Cham/Swan/Gorilla three-way tie with about nine hours to go to rollover. Again, we can postulate that the Elim team had vote manip, but vote manip still requires some control of the vote landscape and the ability not to hit Smokers (which, to be fair, may not be as significant a risk.) It also requires a decent risk appetite because with nine hours or so to rollover, the Village can run away with the tie and potentially require more overt Elim intervention. My point is: what is gained by creating a situation of potentially two Elim endangerment? If you already think Cham/Gorilla are E/E, that's even worse, because then Cham decides nine hours to go that he wants to create a three-way-tie between Elims.
   

  Quote

  Saffron Iguana (0): Pearl Chameleon<1>
  Pearl Chameleon (2): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>
  Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1>
  Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo
  Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
  Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2>
  Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1>
  Turquoise Gorilla (2): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>
  Melon Dingo (1): Coral Swan<2>
  Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon
  Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

  
  I'll grant that a two vote margin is not necessarily the worst, but the Cham train has been sticky so far. There's no reason to introduce further Elims to the fire with potential Village getting carried away or vote manips. True, they could be trying to distance, but alongside volatility, they pay the price of tipping their hand where vote manip is concerned.
   
• Note also that there's a point in time where Swan moves onto Cham to be the fourth vote on Cham, so E/E really seems weird in that context:
   

  Quote

  Saffron Iguana (0): Pearl Chameleon<1>
  Pearl Chameleon (4): Scarlet Octopus, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>
  Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1>
  Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo
  Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
  Charcoal Hyena (1): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>
  Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1>
  Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>
  Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2>
  Coral Swan (2): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon
  Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

  
  I should probably be spoiler formatting this or something sorry guys I'm done in I'll format the analysis post properly. Tentatively think Penguin and Swan not E/E - Penguin moves off Cham later on and Swan moved on (recall I'm only up to p7 of D1 at this point in time) so there's a net vote change of zero because Penguin goes back to Hyena like a homing missile. I feel like that's counterproductive unless I suppose E Swan and E Penguin didn't care, just wanted to find somewhere to park their votes. Penguin's vote could certainly look like a flight off a bad train, but if Penguin is fleeing a bad train, why does Swan get on? Cham was already in the lead, and on the assumption Penguin/Swan are E/E, they can control Penguin's vote, Ocho and Mauve didn't seem like they were moving. No real impetus, and being the fourth vote on a train you know is bad can be a bit bold. (Not impossible though - perhaps Swan hoped to blend in with the others? But then on this line of thought, Ocho-Penguin-Swan unlikely to be all E/E/E, (which also commits us to Cham-Ocho-Penguin-Swan not E/E/E/E) unless it was a refuge in audacity tactic - lynch one Elim on the Cham train if it comes to it and then the rest are softcleared by pushing the line of reasoning that Elims don't cluster. I don't know how I would evaluate this - I feel like three Elims beggar belief with Swan's and Penguin's movements but I can't say it's logically impossible either.
   
• Gorilla. Oh, God, Gorilla. So many problems with Gorilla where do I start. 
  
  Suppose, for the moment, we accept V!Cham. Suppose we also for the moment accept V!Swan. We end up in trouble. Because this is what happens prior to Ocho moving off Cam:
   

  Quote

  Saffron Iguana (0): Pearl Chameleon<1>
  Pearl Chameleon (3): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>
  Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1>
  Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo
  Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
  Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
  Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1>
  Turquoise Gorilla (1): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>
  Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2>
  Coral Swan (3): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
  Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

  
  Gorilla goes onto Swan and ties Swan off with Cham. Which. Whut. If Gorilla is an Elim, and this is with around five hours to rollover, Gorilla just tied off two trains that...are both V anyway so Gorilla has no reason to be invested. (Recall we are supposing for now that Cham is V and Swan is V.) Late movers onto trains who cause ties, even if the tie is broken later, tend to be seen as sus. Particularly if the trains are dominating and could potentially lead to a mislynch. It could be that Gorilla was preparing to implicate Cham on a flip, seeing the amount of attention Cham drew for most of the cycle, so I guess E!Gorilla could work with V!Cam and V!Swan. But another natural interpretation is that something has gone wrong with the reasoning process and Cham is E and E!Gorilla was acting to save Cham - after a lot of apathy (from everyone) towards Cham being in the lead. 
   
• But then, as Swan points out:
   

  Quote

  Saffron Iguana (0): Pearl Chameleon<1>=
  Pearl Chameleon (2): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>
  Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1>
  Violet Axlotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo
  Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
  Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
  Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1>
  Turquoise Gorilla (2): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Scarlet Octopus<2>
  Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2>
  Coral Swan (3): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
  Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

  
  Ocho going onto Gorilla is a problem. I don't think it necessarily overtly endangers Gorilla, could've been distancing, and I need to check whether Ocho made it back in time to change their vote or did not, but parking your vote on your teammate and trusting to a razor thin margin while you go off is...sort of risky. And seems to suggest that Ocho and Gorilla likely don't share alignments.

Short of it is I feel I need to finish processing the rest of the D1 to feel more confident - and probably get some sleep (w00ts work database woes) but I'd like more eyes on things. I think as I currently stand, I am more committed to V!Cham than necessarily V!Gorilla, but my current Gorilla read is powerfully gut driven and I'm very aware of the 2 other pages of D1 I have to process and think through.

I feel as though Ocho parking on Gorilla, ultimately, was safe, but I suppose the reasoning behind Ocho/Gorilla not E/E is that Ocho could've parked somewhere else but chose Gorilla. Things I need to get done at some point: <Finish D1, finalise current state of reads, go read what everyone else has said about D1 (yes sorry I'm behind the curve), catch up on this thread, and decide/integrate my reads on Ocho, Gorilla, Cham, and basically everyone with vote analysis.>

Bit of a cop-out but I spent longer working on this than I'd like and I didn't even realise I can now hear a rooster and I need sleep >> 

Edited to add:

@Saffron Iguana - Not in a state to answer your questions now and I feel a decent answer needs me to actually unpack the Iguana-Mauve-Gorilla trifecta and at p7, I haven't reached it yet. I haven't determined where I stand on you either.

In general, this is probably the big analysis push I'm doing because things align well for me on a weekend and the work + study week can be more busy so just gonna do what a meerkat can do.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Oxblood Beagle]

5 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

Ocho being Evil might suggest Cham is Evil too (so it is compatible) because Ocho makes that counterintuitive (by Ocho's own stated desires/lights) move to pull off the Cham-Swan tie, so we have Ocho/Swan not E/E because Ocho damns Swan and lightly endangers Gorilla to save Cham.

My only counter to this is the possibility that it's Octo/Swan who are E/E, and the move off Cham was because of the waning interest in that exe train. With the Swan train having a few people join, an elim teammate might have been searching for another possible person people would be willing to vote on. It would make sense to me, especially in the hours leading up to the end. Enough time for people to be active and move, but not so close that it actually endangers the teammate. Three and a half hours is more than enough for a train to swing, clearly. That kind of move also makes analysis more difficult, as it distances teammates rather than ties them together with a direct defense.

On the other hand, I do concede that this is tainted by my suspicion of Swan overall for their voting last turn, and that your reasoning does make sense as well. Either way, it hinges on Octo.

[Mint Heron]

7 hours ago, Salmon Meerkat said:

wb bro

unfortunately, my gut tells me i should b wary of u if i think u r who u r b/c u led me on a merry chase in a past life

Azure Mouse, Scarlet Octopus

At this point I'm on p.7 of my re-read through the D1 voting but it's clear I'm not flushing anyone out with an Azure Mouse vote, and I'm not very fond of Ocho's voting history. I am still committed to posting my full analysis, it's just going to take a bit longer than I expected as I'm still at p7 and trying to ascertain if I'm missing links in my current assessments/logic chains as some of my reads feel counterintuitive and I hope bringing my thoughts to the thread will result in greater clarity.

But, about Ocho.

My problem with Ocho in a nutshell:

I've always said that talking is a free action, and I like to look at votes because voting shows where a player's priorities are.

Vote situation before Ocho moves:

After Ocho moves:

What Ocho does:

Vote stayed on Cham all game, moves off Cham around four and a half hours to rollover, and goes onto Gorilla, a sidetrain. This puts Swan in the lead and increases the Gorilla side-train into a secondary train.

What Ocho says:

Wants Cham dead, will vote Cham if back in time and people want Cham dead (because apparently people don't want Cham dead anymore despite Cham being tied on the leading train before Ocho moved!), and is a null on hyena and a null with some sus on Swan so the logical answer is to vote Gorilla.

Because it makes so much sense to forgo a 50% chance of lynching your top suspect and 50% of lynching someone you are slightly sus of and turn that into 100% chance to lynch someone you are slightly sus of, 0% chance to vote top suspect, and something something Gorilla delenda est.

I don't like Ocho.

I do lean light Village on Cham now but this read is something I'm trying to summarise/spell out in the broader analysis post. I just wanted to throw this out there for discussion since Cham has featured, Ocho moves to Gorilla, one of the end trains, and also because Ochio's vote remained remarkably static for most of D1.

There's probably more content I'm not interacting with because everyone talks too much and now I understand why poor Orlok went stark bloody mad in QF50 and the perfect is the enemy of the good so I want to get this out first while I work on everything else.

Am I blatantly ignoring most of the thread? Yes. I can only handle one thread at a time, I am in my dotage, and D1 is threatening to end me  I commit to playing catch up since thread engagement is faster for me as I don't do deep post analysis most of the time.

Tivend frowned. He wasn't the most talkative person in the room, but he made sure to pay attention. The analysis of this Kellehrt fellow was off base. He had missed a crucial vote change from Su (Coral Swan), before the vote from Neat (Scarlett Octopus):

With that in mind, the situation had become much different.

Vote situation before Ocho moves:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (0): Pearl Chameleon<1>=
Pearl Chameleon (2): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>
Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1>
Violet Axolotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1>
Turquoise Gorilla (2): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>
Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2>
Coral Swan (3): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

After Ocho moves:

Quote

Saffron Iguana (0): Pearl Chameleon<1>=
Pearl Chameleon (1): Scarlet Octopus<1>, Salmon Meerkat<2>, Mauve Crocodile, Salmon Meerkat<4>, Chartreuse Penguin<3>, Coral Swan<3>
Sunburst Toucan (0): Salmon Meerkat<1>
Violet Axolotl (1): Chartreuse Penguin<1>, Onyx Flamingo
Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena
Charcoal Hyena (2): Chartreuse Penguin<2>, Salmon Meerkat<6>, Chartreuse Penguin<4>
Amber Vulture (0): Salmon Meerkat<3>, Coral Swan<1>
Turquoise Gorilla (3): Violet Axlotl, Salmon Meerkat<5>, Coral Swan<4>, Scarlet Octopus<2>
Melon Dingo (0): Coral Swan<2>
Coral Swan (3): Oxblood Beagle, Pearl Chameleon, Turquoise Gorilla
Mauve Crocodile (1): Fuchsia Ostrich

Octopus's vote did not put Coral Swan in the lead. Rather, Coral Swan endangered himself by moving his vote off of Pearl Chameleon. Reacting to this, Octopus immediately piles another vote on Gorilla, tying the vote once again, protecting Swan. If Swan is evil, I would expect Octopus is evil as well. I'm not certain of Octopus's alignment, but I won't vote for someone based on faulty reasoning.

Tivend straightened up. With that misconception out of the way, he still wanted to place a vote. He picked up his recollection of the chaotic final hours of yesterday.

Several more people hopped in to the discussion, adding their votes to candidates with only one vote on them. Then, Chameleon retracts their vote, and votes on Saffron Iguana. This leaves the vote count with Gorilla at a minor lead, but with 4 other candidates at 2 votes each. Mauve Crocodile likes the Iguana vote, and makes a 5th two vote candidate. I also got in on the action, as a handsome devil, and made a sixth candidate with 2 votes out of the innkeep (Axolotl). So basically, the thread is a mess at this point, and I wanted to see what train, if any, would start dominating.

Edeis (@Onyx Flamingo) then has a really weird vote. Despite my vote making Axolotl a viable candidate, she pivots off of him, onto Crocodile, another candidate with two votes. One of his votes is from Ostrich early in the cycle, who literally says it's a gut read. The second is from Emerald Falcon, who is suspecting him because of a PM that Crocodile swears he did not send. That's a terrible criteria for a third vote, and I really disagree with it.

"Edeis (Onyx Flamingo), stop doing your hair and come down here. Though you may be a stunning beauty, your wits are apparently non-existent. Or, perhaps, you are a Spiked fiend, who tried to save your compatriot the gameshow host. Either way, I want an answer for your behavior.

[Salmon Meerkat]

55 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

Tivend frowned. He wasn't the most talkative person in the room, but he made sure to pay attention. The analysis of this Kellehrt fellow was off base. He had missed a crucial vote change from Su (Coral Swan), before the vote from Neat (Scarlett Octopus):

With that in mind, the situation had become much different.

Vote situation before Ocho moves:

After Ocho moves:

Octopus's vote did not put Coral Swan in the lead. Rather, Coral Swan endangered himself by moving his vote off of Pearl Chameleon. Reacting to this, Octopus immediately piles another vote on Gorilla, tying the vote once again, protecting Swan. If Swan is evil, I would expect Octopus is evil as well. I'm not certain of Octopus's alignment, but I won't vote for someone based on faulty reasoning.

Tivend straightened up. With that misconception out of the way, he still wanted to place a vote. He picked up his recollection of the chaotic final hours of yesterday.

Several more people hopped in to the discussion, adding their votes to candidates with only one vote on them. Then, Chameleon retracts their vote, and votes on Saffron Iguana. This leaves the vote count with Gorilla at a minor lead, but with 4 other candidates at 2 votes each. Mauve Crocodile likes the Iguana vote, and makes a 5th two vote candidate. I also got in on the action, as a handsome devil, and made a sixth candidate with 2 votes out of the innkeep (Axolotl). So basically, the thread is a mess at this point, and I wanted to see what train, if any, would start dominating.

Edeis (@Onyx Flamingo) then has a really weird vote. Despite my vote making Axolotl a viable candidate, she pivots off of him, onto Crocodile, another candidate with two votes. One of his votes is from Ostrich early in the cycle, who literally says it's a gut read. The second is from Emerald Falcon, who is suspecting him because of a PM that Crocodile swears he did not send. That's a terrible criteria for a third vote, and I really disagree with it.

"Edeis (Onyx Flamingo), stop doing your hair and come down here. Though you may be a stunning beauty, your wits are apparently non-existent. Or, perhaps, you are a Spiked fiend, who tried to save your compatriot the gameshow host. Either way, I want an answer for your behavior.

Can I trouble you to give me the page ref number? Would like to catch maybe half an hour's more sleep and I want to be able to flag in my notes where I have to go through again. 

Thanks for the catch — I brought this up to the thread precisely because I was starting to feel as though the alignment chain was too long to make sense. 

Edited to add: It's fine I got up and switched the com on. Have the page / number ref now, will redo, cheers!

Edited January 8, 2022 by Salmon Meerkat

[Emerald Falcon]

Heron earns a place in my village reads now. While the Elim Equity is still there between Heron and Octopus, I really like this post. It could definitely be a defence of a teammate, but that's going to be put in the back and not brought out until necessary. I like the flamingo take, mostly because it was something I mentioned before - I think during the night cycle. Subject to change upon octopus being an Elim potentially, and also on flamingo being Village, but they're up there now.

As I looked over the votes, I noticed something a little different than I originally thought about Coral's votes.

Spoiler

26	[P]	Pearl Chameleon	votes	Coral Swan	^	2
32	[P]	Coral Swan	votes	Pearl Chameleon	^	4
35	[P]	Turquoise Gorilla	votes	Coral Swan	^	3
36	[P]	Coral Swan	unvotes	Pearl Chameleon	-	2
37	[P]	Coral Swan	votes	Turquoise Gorilla	^	2

 This makes me lean more village on Coral, to be frank. There's nothing inherently village about voting people voting you, but at the same time....there is. Perhaps there's something in not mentioning the fact that it's because they're voting on you- maybe there's something in not realizing it yourself.

[Salmon Meerkat]

Still working on fixing my analysis, going through the rest of the N1 actual longposts, and going back to this thread, and trying to integrate/tidy up my reads list and intervene/respond at certain junctures of this debate. I see Swan's ninja vote and must have missed it when scanning the paragraph - I really should try to modify Drake's tallybot (after asking for permission) maybe: I usually seem to be taken by surprise by such votes when tracking.

First, Ocho, with my apologies, and thanks to Heron for catching that post from Swan. I've passed the Swan-Ocho interaction and while it's worth commenting on, Ocho doesn't come off looking bad or sticking out at this point in the voting.

Personal view on the Coinshot claim:

Last night: "I have 9 problems pages on the D1 thread and this isn't one of them"

Today:

• <ok.png>
• Assess unlikely that actual Coinshot would claim
• Assess unlikely that actual Coinshot would have such a strong read D2 on player with aggressive ISO & placed a lethal vote on Mauve Crocodile who flipped village to claim what is usually considered a power role
• Such a claim should be suspicious in and of itself to V!Falcon and should balance a Village read
• Phishing MO consistent with 0.9 confidence player ID read of Falcon - assess likely V!Falcon is phishing for reactions (what reactions did you gain from this, and how has this helped your reads?), assess possibility E!Falcon could be trying to prompt reaction from actual Coinshot but seems a bit paranoid as I feel the real Coinshot isn't going to react overtly just because Falcon claimed to have a claim, but perhaps E!Falcon imagines a V!Coinshot would think this person is an imposter and try to find out who that person is because they're probably Evil, and so that might be an avenue to trawl for responses
• Not impossible actual Coinshot did in fact claim (I'm looking at you, rampant claimers to Maili in AG2) in which case the damage has been done, and there's nothing I can do that immediately makes the situation better so I am going back to fix my analysis and do the many things I can do on my free weekend.

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Okay I totally checked out of the game after my 2 posts and only came back to check the results, but now I'm caught up and this is basically my jumbled thoughts on everything till now - 

First off, why is everyone praising Ja Rule? Eminem dissed his career off way back in 2006  

Okok, jumbled thoughts, here we go - 

1. Penguin is village. Accumulation of all posts + attention to detail wrt Hyena ("why would you say you pre-wrote the posts even if you did?")
2. Heron very village wrt last post. Particularly the Flamingo part, because I was about to bring Onyx to notice myself. In addition to Heron's points, after Onyx's vote, Mauve responds giving reasons/explanations to Onyx's suspicions but Onyx does not react to that at all, even though they post after that. If they believed the explanation was insufficient, they would have told so and firmed their vote. But the fact that they didn't do this reads to me like they are trying to make sure their vote goes unseen and does not raise too much noise. They ignore Onyx's defense, make sure their vote stays and Mauve dies. Note that at this point the score was 3-2-2 [Gorilla, Croc, Iguana] and Onyx puts Croc on level terms with Gorilla. Possible Gorilla/Flamingo team here. 
3. Not entertaining a vote on Octopus as of now, leaning village primarily with accumulation of posts + gut, will re-read in iso-mode later to prove or disprove this read.
4. Not entirely sure about Meerkat here, A* for game solving but some pushes have been weird ["if e mentions e teammate as e read why won't they follow through" argument with.. Pearl? Or Iguana? I don't seem to recall correctly but my opinion is obviously trying to look good if your e teammate flips without particularly endangering them by voting. This has now become too large to justify the use of square brackets but I'll continue on anyway.  The other time I felt weird was their push on Octopus this cycle. They basically say Octopus moved from Chameleon (alignment unknown) to Gorilla (alignment unknown) to put Swan in the lead (again, alignment unknown). Stresses on the fact Octopus put Gorilla on the side-train but that doesn't matter now, does it? Because Gorilla ended up being one of the main trains and Octopus ended staying on Gorilla train. That push felt weird. I'm still leaning mildly village towards Meerkat, all these are... things that are wrong in that villageriness.
5. Not leaning either way on Hyena, my main point of disagreement - their conclusion that Iguana feels more evil than Gorilla whereas I feel like they're equally evil. Someone mentioned this but when it was 3-3-3 and Gorilla voted for Iguana, Iguana did not self-pres vote back at Gorilla but voted for Crocodile instead [whoever mentioned this please let me know and link that post, I need to give you village points ] . To explain this a bit further, at 3-3-3 Gorilla has to choice between voting for Crocodile or Iguana, and they choose Iguana citing Croc as their top village trust [I need to check if they mention it before but if they did, then they'd want to keep it consistent and voting for Croc would change that. In case Iguana was their evil teammate, then they'd know there's a vote manip on its way and voting on them would be fine]. This post here, Iguana asks for a compromise from Gorilla and a vote on Croc, which is weird because Gorilla's just mentioned that Croc is their highest trust read. 4-4-3 is the score and [if they're evil] they know that with evil vote manip, Mauve dies. That's when Scorpion votes for Gorilla so I'm not quite understanding where the vote cancel on Gorilla came from? You know what, the more I think about it the more it seems waaaay too elaborate and it's making my head hurt. I'll take a break from these two and come back to them later, but basically they're in conversation for today's vote for me. Need to re-read in iso-mode later. Coming back to Hyena, I felt like there was a difference in the way they approached the two ISOs, biased towards Iguana, making the conclusion seem like they are more evil than Gorilla. Don't have any evidence to back this, but just the feel I got reading the ISOs.
6. Albatross Argument meh, was evil reading them based on posts, now not leaning any particular way after getting Shot, could be evil Thug but that'll be more evident as the game goes on and we figure out evil team composition. They are right though, they haven't explicitly mentioned they were new anywhere, we just saw one post and ran with it. Were they overplaying this or just letting us assume? Albatross PM'ers, can you answer this?
7. Swan, I think they're village. Nothing particular stood out about them for me in my readthrough. Perhaps, that should be concerning eh? Need closer look.
8. That "I donno who PM'd me" bit was odd from Falcon but other than that I think they've been good
9. Vulture with their typical tabular column analysis, remember both agreeing and disagreeing with conclusions drawn from post so no alignment indication about them [I think I disagreed about them finding stuff about Octopus evil]. A D1 vote would have given a better idea about them.

OH WAIT I'VE JUST NOTICED AMBER VULTURE PFP IN DETAIL, WHO IS THAT PERSON WHO MADE THAT? ARE YOU A HUGE FRINGE FAN?? BECAUSE THAT VULTURE IS TRAPPED IN THE AMBER-LIKE SUBSTANCE FROM FRINGE!!!

I'm a huge fan of the show lol, anyway bifurcating - 

Good - Penguin, Swan, Scorpion (revisit IF Iguana is evil WITHOUT Gorilla), Falcon, Heron, Meerkat, Octopus, Axolotl
???? - Vulture, Mouse, Hyena, Dragonfly, Albatross, Chameleon, Rhino, Zebra, Elephant, Toucan
Bad - Dingo, Flamingo, Beagle, Iguana, Gorilla

I realized I haven't spoken about Chameleon. Stuff from Chameleon, Iguana and Swan are all jumbled in my head so again, marking it for revisit. Voting for Flamingo until I figure out Gorilla/Iguana stuff, which is conditional, and trying to figure out their EoD ended up confusing me. More sure of Flamingo's shadiness at EoD. Positions of anyone else I have not explained is basically gut. 

[Magenta Albatross]

I'm going to come back and reevaluate the situation but I really don't like that Falcon said they got a Coinshot claim. I can't think of a good reason someone would claim that role to anyone if it was true, and believing someone who claims Coinshot to you seems weird. If you have an explanation Falcon I would love to hear it.

Also I don't know if Im the only one but I didn't even notice them saying that when I read their post it wasn't until someone pointed it out that I went back and saw it so it just seems weird it was so subtle/unassuming.

[Salmon Meerkat]

26 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

The other time I felt weird was their push on Octopus this cycle. They basically say Octopus moved from Chameleon (alignment unknown) to Gorilla (alignment unknown) to put Swan in the lead (again, alignment unknown). Stresses on the fact Octopus put Gorilla on the side-train but that doesn't matter now, does it? Because Gorilla ended up being one of the main trains and Octopus ended staying on Gorilla train.

Except that I've mentioned I currently read Cham as light Village and I'm not interested in info lynching Cham just to secure the point - I prefer to lynch people I suspect. I can be persuaded into an info lynch between two suspects but a info lynch on a light Village read makes no sense to me, I also mentioned below I felt that I was committed to Swan-Cham not E/E on the basis of their interactions. 

This is partly on me as it was very early in the morning, thoughts were sloshing out in my head, and I should have spelled it out better, but in a single thesis statement:

Quote

 

"I don't like Ocho because I think the voting action clashes with Ocho's stated motivations, and since I read Cham as light Village and the movement is just odd, and Ocho claimed to not be able to return before rollover, this just looks like an Elim trying to evacuate from a train they know is going to result in a damning flip."

 

Does that help?

I agree it doesn't matter now though because I've missed Swan's vote (and actually discovered I missed another Vulture vote as well) which drastically changes the situation and makes the point a moot one.

35 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

I don't seem to recall correctly but my opinion is obviously trying to look good if your e teammate flips without particularly endangering them by voting.

Beagle voted Coral Swan for this choice 12 minutes after the halfway mark into the cycle. If it was near end of cycle, I'd be more convinced, but I feel that's sufficiently early that E Swan could've just done it rather than set up an odd situation he wouldn't profit from. We agree on a V swan read for now though.

I recall most strongly making this argument for why I don't think the "Swan is Evil teammates with Hyena and therefore is refusing to vote Hyena" works. I had this argument with Cham in thread D1. In short, my argument is that Swan had every means of voting Hyena without having to suffer negative externalities. He had no reason to refrain from doing so. Otherwise, as I've mentioned elsewhere in PMs that I'm concerned I've been staring at the D1 so much the connections are starting to become dubious to me, so I'm afraid you'll have to ID something to me before I can mention it.

Anyway, if you don't read Cham V, and you don't read Swan V, then this point obviously won't be convincing to you, but as I laid out in the post, I think there's some reason to read Swan V and Cham V. (Reads list pending as I'm trying to make my thoughts readable rather than the ravings of a kel slowly going mad.)

Claiming that putting Gorilla on the side-train doesn't matter seems disingenuous and I'm struggling to work out if this is my old cognitive biases as a player flaring up again because I get twitchy and start suspecting nefarity when players start misrepresenting or skewing arguments and I've been told by many better players that I need to work on that (thank you M'Hael and Meta.) 

I'm not sure why you think that's irrelevant since the side-train ended up becoming the main train. It's worth looking at the point that the side-train evolved into a serious contender for the main train, because we want to ask if that's hostile activity or not, what was the instigation, do the reasons and motivations hold up with their actions, or do we think there's something more sinister at work. To put it another way, if we want to scrutinise the Gorilla-Crocodile-Iguana tie that killed a regular Villager, then we want to look at movements onto the train and in particular, movements that progress the train or bring it into serious contention.

The usual MO to looking for Elims at the end of a hotly contested Day is to look for strange movements onto a train. I've been trying to do that for D1, and that's when the Ocho movement popped to me because I missed Swan's ninja vote.

58 minutes ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

Albatross PM'ers, can you answer this?

It's an awkward admission as I've just realised that Albatross said something in our PM that I should have construed as him being a returning player but I didn't pick up on it - specifically he said that he heard the claim crowd is more common nowadays.

I think I must have picked up the new player impression from the thread mentions and his engagement with meta because if I'd paid closer attention, that word should've been a tell to me. 

[Saffron Iguana]

1 hour ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said:

1.  Coming back to Hyena, I felt like there was a difference in the way they approached the two ISOs, biased towards Iguana, making the conclusion seem like they are more evil than Gorilla. Don't have any evidence to back this, but just the feel I got reading the ISOs.

Good - Penguin, Swan, Scorpion (revisit IF Iguana is evil WITHOUT Gorilla), Falcon, Heron, Meerkat, Octopus, Axolotl
???? - Vulture, Mouse, Hyena, Dragonfly, Albatross, Chameleon, Rhino, Zebra, Elephant, Toucan
Bad - Dingo, Flamingo, Beagle, Iguana, Gorilla

Hey Ostrich, are you a blunt edged sword, because all you've got is a good point!

I had assumed it was a by-product of ISOs elevating irrelevant details by virtue of their exhaustive nature, but I'm going to reconsider my read of their reads. 

I doubt Meerkat would intentionally use faulty data to craft a misleading argument, because it is so easily disproven. 

Why is Beagle in the evil tier for you?

I like the approach of voting off someone who killed a villager last round, although I'm struggling to figure out who was evil that was leading at any point. My best guesses are Swan and Gorilla, but I don't feel great about either. Perhaps some of those one vote wagons never took off because there was no Spiked willing to be the usual second vote, but it feels unlikely that we were completely wrong all day. 

[Emerald Falcon]

2 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

I'm going to come back and reevaluate the situation but I really don't like that Falcon said they got a Coinshot claim. I can't think of a good reason someone would claim that role to anyone if it was true, and believing someone who claims Coinshot to you seems weird. If you have an explanation Falcon I would love to hear it.

Also I don't know if Im the only one but I didn't even notice them saying that when I read their post it wasn't until someone pointed it out that I went back and saw it so it just seems weird it was so subtle/unassuming.

What would you like me to explain about it? I don't know why you think I should explain anything around it, as that would just help anyone figure out who it was. Voting me here is especially strange.

I'm conflicted on Iguana mostly because I feel it should be easier to kill him then it's seeming the Village wants. Either way, I support the train on flamingo-as the one to originally bring the point up-enough to feel fine about where I'm sitting.