Mid-Range Game 55: Sudden but Inevitable Betrayal

[Mat he/him]

8 hours ago, Teia said:

Like I said before, I have no idea what the heck I’m doing. I’ve played One Night Ultimate Werewolf, and that’s about the extent of my knowledge in the mafia realm. Any advice would be welcome.

I’ll vote Matrim’s Dice.

Welcome to the game! Advice I’d give would be to not vote me  Archer did already ask, but any particular reason you did?

7 hours ago, Dannnex said:

"the" three n's? my name only contains a three n's. the n's are fluid, shifting with the flow of time. just as people flow and shift in our grand journey through this experience we call life, so do the n's. for the n's represent so much more than merely the 14th letter of the alphabet, or the sound we make when we close off the e vowel by placing our tongue on the roof of our mouths. They represent growth, change, evolution. They are the growing sapling, the rushing river, the shifting stones. they are all, and they are nothing. there are not just three n's in my name. there are n's long past, n's yet to come, and n's that will never be and have never been. n's are all. n's are none. and the n's love you.

Dannnex

[+Lotus she/her]

Archer

52 minutes ago, Archer said:

For some reason I thought Brandon's birthday was the 26th, not the 19th and completely missed that. So thank you, now I have a State of the Sanderson I can read after this!

 

[Illwei]

I'm going Christmas shopping today with a friend maybe they can help

Why don't I know what she likes

Why does archer move his vote when Walin isn't even in thread yet

Why am I Araris

Matrim is town

[Archer he/him]

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Welcome to the game! Advice I’d give would be to not vote me 

This game got a lot easier when we cut the truth and lies part and just had all the Crew publicly declare that they don't want to be killed today. 

I have good advice! Tell your GM how you think your role works. Sometimes you've very wrong and that's good to know! 

16 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Archer

Could you please explain the thought process that brought you to that decision? 

15 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Why does archer move his vote when Walin isn't even in thread yet

Why am I Araris

You did the old piggyback a poke maneuver. Classic Araris. 

[Mat he/him]

6 minutes ago, Archer said:

This game got a lot easier when we cut the truth and lies part and just had all the Crew publicly declare that they don't want to be killed today. 

I mean, technically I never said I was Crew :P.

[Illwei]

you changed your name, lotus unvoted.

lotus/archer potential e/e

my vote wasn't a bandwagon but ok. you trying to write it off if a bad look

[+Lotus she/her]

34 minutes ago, Archer said:

Could you please explain the thought process that brought you to that decision? 

Your no longer Ookla. Therefore, I no longer am suspicious of you.

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

you changed your name, lotus unvoted.

lotus/archer potential e/e

In all fairness, this is consistent with Lotus’ initial reason for voting Archer.

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

In all fairness, this is consistent with Lotus’ initial reason for voting Archer.

That doesn't make it better though tbh

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean, technically I never said I was Crew :P.

Hey. Hey Mat. Are you a member of the Crew? 

Spoiler

gottem

Spoiler

Also why'd you unvote Dannex?

 

1 hour ago, Lotus said:

Your no longer Ookla. Therefore, I no longer am suspicious of you.

You would have had a terrible time winning last game when everyone was an Ookla. :P. Who have you PMed this round? 

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

Hey. Hey Mat. Are you a member of the Crew?

Undoubtedly

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

Also why'd you unvote Dannex?

His ode to n’s. Simply beautiful.

But really, just because I never had a reason to vote him in the first place.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

5 minutes ago, Archer said:

Hey. Hey TUA. Are you a member of the Crew? 

I already said I was.

[Archer he/him]

Excellent, now I can ask you guys again next cycle and know if you've been converted based on how your answer changes. >:) 

Questions for anyone besides Mat and Illwei. I was going to make it just TUA, but I'll open it up a bit:

-The doctor can stop all kills (besides the exe) in a cycle from happening, but they can only do it once. When's the best time for them to do that?
-The mechanic has a 20% chance of finding a Secret piece, but can only search every other cycle. Should they start this cycle or the next one? We have more people right now, so our odds of finding our two per cycle maximum are better than they will be tommorow even without the mechanic, but if they delay, they might have less opportunities to search if the game ends quickly.
-The Shepherd can stop someone from attacking. Is it better to do that every round, or search for a Secret piece?
-Do you think the Companion, who can turn a non vote into a vote of their choice, is more likely to be elim or village? And how comfortable are you leaving votes on the table to be manipulated like that? 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

8 minutes ago, Archer said:

Excellent, now I can ask you guys again next cycle and know if you've been converted based on how your answer changes. >:) 

Questions for anyone besides Mat and Illwei. I was going to make it just TUA, but I'll open it up a bit:

-The doctor can stop all kills (besides the exe) in a cycle from happening, but they can only do it once. When's the best time for them to do that?

-The mechanic has a 20% chance of finding a Secret piece, but can only search every other cycle. Should they start this cycle or the next one? We have more people right now, so our odds of finding our two per cycle maximum are better than they will be tommorow even without the mechanic, but if they delay, they might have less opportunities to search if the game ends quickly.

-The Shepherd can stop someone from attacking. Is it better to do that every round, or search for a Secret piece?

-Do you think the Companion, who can turn a non vote into a vote of their choice, is more likely to be elim or village? And how comfortable are you leaving votes on the table to be manipulated like that? 

I think that's a matter of judgement on their part when the time comes. If they get informed that the fighter is going to be attacked that would be a good time I believe. Otherwise it depends on the matter at hand and the alignment of the doctor.

Once again, up to them. Personally, I would do it today because I think most people with stall, but I'm more risky than most people with that kind of stuff.

I think they should search this and maybe the next turn then start blocking because mercs are more likely to attack then and the shepherd's reads will be more informed. 

I think there will most likely be two companions, one vil or alliance and one reaver. I'm not super comfortable leaving votes to be controlled, but if I genuinely have no suspicions, I probably still won't vote. 

[+Lotus she/her]

2 hours ago, Archer said:

You would have had a terrible time winning last game when everyone was an Ookla. :P. Who have you PMed this round? 

Nobody! PMing sounds too much like peeing.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

7 hours ago, The Unknown Aon said:

I think that's a matter of judgement on their part when the time comes. If they get informed that the fighter is going to be attacked that would be a good time I believe. Otherwise it depends on the matter at hand and the alignment of the doctor.

Once again, up to them. Personally, I would do it today because I think most people with stall, but I'm more risky than most people with that kind of stuff.

I think they should search this and maybe the next turn then start blocking because mercs are more likely to attack then and the shepherd's reads will be more informed. 

I think there will most likely be two companions, one vil or alliance and one reaver. I'm not super comfortable leaving votes to be controlled, but if I genuinely have no suspicions, I probably still won't vote. 

The fighter is one of the better people to have attacked, since they'll take the attacker with them. The doctor saving their ability for immediately after they save someone could be helpful to get around not being able to save the same person twice in a row. 

Amending my previous statement to say that the chances of finding clues is low enough that it's probably fine for mechanics to search on the same cycle. 6 crew + 2 mechanics at the high end of reasonable only has a ~20% chance of getting even two clues, and <7% of more than that and 'wasting' clues. The possibility of more mechanics is outweighed by crew dying/not searching.

Mercs have a decent chance of being crew or at least alliance, and getting sheparded doesn't reduce their kill allowance. Stopping the reaver attack is more valuable, both to save someone and potentially id a killer, although a lack of a kill could easily mean a conversion instead of a roleblock. What the shepard does depends on how strongly they want to contribute to the clue win con versus the kill all reaver and alliance members win con.

The likelihood of reavers and alliance trying to team up to control the vote means neither of them needs any sort of vote manipulation, so any one companion is most likely crew with a second alliance companion a possibility. The companion ability is less useful than searching for clues except under very specific scenarios though.

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

Gotta say Mat is my only read right now. Elim!Mat has a tendency to cover attacks with  emoticons. I know that’s hardly a reason for a vote, but I want to put one down before the end of the cycle, and no one else stands out to me right now.

[Mat he/him]

36 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Gotta say Mat is my only read right now. Elim!Mat has a tendency to cover attacks with  emoticons. I know that’s hardly a reason for a vote, but I want to put one down before the end of the cycle, and no one else stands out to me right now.

Szeth

I use  and :P. obsessively regardless of absolutely anything. I literally have that as its own line in my About Me. This is straight up a horrible reason and vote and I’m not even gonna sugarcoat that. Cite one instance where I ‘covered attacks’ with  in a way that is clearly different from any other game; I’ll wait.

This is a retaliation vote, but it’s also because I just came off a game where I correctly and immediately guessed the elim team based on their bad reasoning for voting me.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Szeth

I use  and :P. obsessively regardless of absolutely anything. I literally have that as its own line in my About Me. This is straight up a horrible reason and vote and I’m not even gonna sugarcoat that. Cite one instance where I ‘covered attacks’ with  in a way that is clearly different from any other game; I’ll wait.

This is a retaliation vote, but it’s also because I just came off a game where I correctly and immediately guessed the elim team based on their bad reasoning for voting me.

I didn’t want to leave the cycle without a vote, since I can’t trust myself to do anything else. And after reading through the thread twice, you are literally my only elim read. It’s super light - mostly gut if anything, but it’s what I’ve got.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Remember when I started LG74 with getting wisdom teeth removed and felt awful the first cycle? I just got my Covid Booster (yay!) and am exhausted. So that's a thing. Faleast will have to wait.

But I want to vote. And I don't really remember much about people's habits besides what they've already reminded people are their habits. 

Archer feels weird, but Archer also feels like Archer and he's one of the more active ones. Mat feels like Mat...

You know, I can go Szeth. Mat using emojis is one of the main things Mat does. Even D1, basing a suspicion on that is weird. 

[Szeth Pancakes he/they]

9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Mat using emojis is one of the main things Mat does. Even D1, basing a suspicion on that is weird. 

It’s not him using emojis, it’s him using emojis to cover up an attack. I know, it’s not the biggest thing, but I’m reading basically everyone else neutral, it’s what I’ve got

ah what am I saying im really just trying to justify a gut read here

[Illwei]

do do do do

Ash

last one

[Archer he/him]

Hope you recover quickly, Ash! 

There's an interesting difference in the reactions to Lotus' reasoning versus the ones to Szeth's. Neither made a lot of sense, but Szeth got two votes for theirs while Lotus got none. Perhaps it's because Lotus retracted theirs, but I actually prefer committing to a gut read over not voting at all. As Illwei might be alluding to, it's the same kind of opportunism that has me voting Danex.

[Mat he/him]

9 hours ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

I didn’t want to leave the cycle without a vote, since I can’t trust myself to do anything else. And after reading through the thread twice, you are literally my only elim read. It’s super light - mostly gut if anything, but it’s what I’ve got.

You’ve misread me via gut enough times that I think it’s weird you’re trusting it again.

Does anyone know the vote count?

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Hope you recover quickly, Ash! 

There's an interesting difference in the reactions to Lotus' reasoning versus the ones to Szeth's. Neither made a lot of sense, but Szeth got two votes for theirs while Lotus got none. Perhaps it's because Lotus retracted theirs, but I actually prefer committing to a gut read over not voting at all. As Illwei might be alluding to, it's the same kind of opportunism that has me voting Danex.

The difference is that I didn’t read Lotus’ vote as like an actual vote based on an actual suspicion. It was a D1 poke, like my Dannnex vote.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

That feels back tracky. Tentative Szeth

Devo, I actually don't think that the Alliance are all that likely to team up with eachother. The Reavers have motivation to seek them out, but there isn't much reason for the Alliance to do so if the Reavers don't contact them in my opinion. 

3 hours ago, Archer said:

Hope you recover quickly, Ash! 

There's an interesting difference in the reactions to Lotus' reasoning versus the ones to Szeth's. Neither made a lot of sense, but Szeth got two votes for theirs while Lotus got none. Perhaps it's because Lotus retracted theirs, but I actually prefer committing to a gut read over not voting at all. As Illwei might be alluding to, it's the same kind of opportunism that has me voting Danex.

I only mildly dislike Szeths reasoning itself. It's his response posts that scream "hedging!" to me.