Mid-Range Game 35: Final Flight

[Furamirionind]

Thinking about it, my vote on Maill makes no sense. Thank you though Maill for telling use your status.

I will change my vote to Drake right now for the sake of keeping 2 lynches sort of even. I will be looking into Ark, Elandera, and Drake before the end of the turn. However, I feel really bad irl right now, and think I am getting sick, so I am going to push that off to tommrow

Maill

Drake

[Elandera]

Just now, Furamirionind said:

Thinking about it, my vote on Maill makes no sense. Thank you though Maill for telling use your status.

I will change my vote to Drake right now for the sake of keeping 2 lynches sort of even. I will be looking into Ark, Elandera, and Drake before the end of the turn. However, I feel really bad irl right now, and think I am getting sick, so I am going to push that off to tommrow

Maill

Drake

 

10 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

I think I’m going with Elandera too, even though she is one of the only two players to PM me. Her voting patterns, while voting on villagers is something we all do, have been...interesting. Decisive for the rest of the lynch in some cases. I am really sorry that I haven’t paid as much attention to this game, Steel. And Fura. This is the most analysis I have so far. 

And you say my voting pattern is off... 

Feel better Fura! I know how difficult this game is while sick.

[Young Bard]

Alright, there's few enough people now that I can try to do a process of Elimination:

Xinoehp512, "Llerk"
Elandera "Bad Wolf" Brenna 
Mailliw73, Millis “Storm” Stromberg
Ark1002, Bard "Bastard" Dominion
Furamirionind, Julis "Junior" Elliot
StrikerEZ, Seth "Striker" Johnson
Young Bard, Rivelda "Topsy-Turvy" Kline
XXGaea, Iradesca "Paradise Song" Aleh
Drake "" Marshall

From this list of living players, the only one I can comfortably say is a villager is Striker, for the simple reason that I don't think an Elim Striker would make the claim they made yesterday as it would be far more useful to keep the Ace Pilot role secret and prove you couldn't be submitting the Elim kill. The next person I'd remove is probably Ark. When the lifebuster hit, their posts seemed fairly... abrasive compared to normal, in a way that I feel an Elim wouldn't do. I'm hesitant about making that the thing that removes him from suspicion, though, since it's not an attitude I really want to promote, but Ark has been particularly active this game, which I do want to encourage and I think they have a fairly high death rate even for an SE player, so I'll let it slide and eliminate them from the list. I'm also going to remove xinoehp and gaea due to lack of information. And of course, I'm removing myself. This leaves:

Elandera "Bad Wolf" Brenna 
Mailliw73, Millis “Storm” Stromberg
Furamirionind, Julis "Junior" Elliot
Drake "" Marshall

A bunch of thoughts, in no particular order:

I was very suspicious of Maill after yesterday - with Joe's death, I've become extremely paranoid that the Elims are hiding among the inactives (and I still am, but I'll have a look at the Elim kills), and Maill seemed the most likely candidate. So, I shot Maill last night (I told Elandera what I planned to do, mainly to see how they'd react. They tried to sway me from the idea. An Elim Elan/Maill team is possible... but far from certain, and now Maill's voting on Elan, which is throwing doubt on that idea.) The ships that have no shields right now are Largo-2, already confirmed to be owned by Striker, and Largo-3. @Mailliw73, were you in Largo-3 last night?

Note: If Maill was in Largo-3, presumably the gunners shot down the Lifebuster, meaning my plan way back from Cycle 1 worked. That's something, at least. If someone else was in Largo-3, then please come forward, since it means that Maill must be a Gunner since that's the only way their ship wasn't damaged.

Fura, I'm neutral on. My gut wants to trust them, but another part of me feels like that trust hasn't really been earned, and my gut is rarely worth a damnation. I'm looking at the Day 3 lynch in particular, since if Fura were an Elim, we'd expect their teammates to try and defend her.

Day 3 re-read:

- A bit of discussion on what ships should be repaired and how. Mainly led by Elandera and Fura. I do feel like this was kind of distracting from lynch talk, which makes me slightly less trusting on both Elan and Fura.

Vote Count:
Drake: Elan{1}, Joe{1},
Gaea: Sart{1}
Fura: Drake{1}, Ark{1}, DA{2}, Sart{3}, Fura{1}
Sart: Bard{1}, DA{1}, DA{3}, Elan{2}, Striker{1}, Sart{4}
Bard: Sart{2},
Joe: Fura{2}

Wow. Looking back, I didn't realise how strongly I pushed the Sart lynch. I guess that makes the biggest defender of Fura... me? Uhh, oops. That doesn't make Fura any more suspicious to me, but it might for other people.

Elan switches from Drake to Sart at a fairly key moment, moving from a three way Drake-Fura-Sart lynch to a Sart-Fura lynch with Sart in the lead. If Elan were a villager, would this make Elan more likely to be teammates with Drake? Fura? I'm honestly not sure.

Fura gives a rundown on a few players. On Elandera, they point out the distracting from lynch discussion, but then they say Elandera is also being useful and end up with a Neutral read. I could easily see this coming from an elim!Fura, that wants to have their cake and eat it too by distancing from Elandera but not needing to vote on them if it comes to it.

On Drake, Fura reads Serial Killer. Thing is, I don't think M-Bot has the Serial Killer win-con, anyway - we certainly haven't been seeing any kills, so I'm optimistic. Also, Elim!Fura getting genuine elim reads on somebody could mean they're interpreting those reads as having to be due to a Serial Killer win con, rather than the statistically more likely Elims. (There may have been a more specific reason given for why Fura thinks Drake is an SK which I've just forgotten about - it's not mentioned in the particular post I'm mentioning from.

Fura pulls a last minute bandwagon on Joe - this is read by people after Joe's death as a distancing maneuver, and seeing as it's less than 8 minutes to rollover... given everything else, I'm inclined to agree? It's also worth noting that Joe put the second vote on Drake, and wasn't around the rest of the cycle (I don't know whether they were online to have the potential to remove their vote if things went wrong, but I assume not since Joe's been busy IRL) which at the time made Drake the only candidate with multiple candidates on them. It's possible that this was distancing, but I'm inclined to think it's not since starting a train can very easily get out of hands as an Eliminator.

I think in the end, if I had to guess, I'd go for a Fura-Elandera team, possibly with one of the inactives I discounted earlier. And if I'm right, we can lynch Fura D6 just like they suggested back in D3.

[Elandera]

There are a few things giving me pause about my vote on Drake.

14 hours ago, MrakeDarshall said:

I’m fine with this.

I’m eighty five percent sure Elandera is an eliminator (for reference, the average accuracy of lynchings is roughly thirty percent, so while I am leaving room for reasonable doubt, eighty five percent is still pretty high).

If I’m wrong about Elandera I deserve some backlash.

This being the biggest thing. It gives me a strong village vibe. An elim making this kind of a statement on someone they know is village would be dangerous. Granted they could be playing mindgames, but I don't think so.

Of all the votes on me, the most opportunistic seems to be Maill. I'm also starting to suspect the elims are among the less- to inactives. I'll be switching from Drake to Maill.

2 hours ago, Young Bard said:

I think in the end, if I had to guess, I'd go for a Fura-Elandera team, possibly with one of the inactives I discounted earlier.

One of the problems I have with your vote on me, aside from the fact that it's a vote on me, is it seems to be mostly based on analysis of Fura. I get that if you suspect a team of Fura and myself, voting on the one with votes already makes sense, but what reasoning outside of Fura do you have for suspecting me?

Vote Count:

Elandera (4) - Drake, Ark, Maill, Bard
Drake (1) - Fura
Maill (1) - Elandera

[StrikerEZ]

I'm working on a post right now to give my thoughts about everything, though it might be awhile before I can post it.

EDIT: @Young Bard Also, being an ace pilot doesn't really hard clear me of being an elim. The ace does have access to two attacks, but they can only use them on the same target. So I couldn't use the elim kill and fight against the Krell. 

Edited June 4, 2019 by StrikerEZ

[Mailliw73]

Elandera, I’m not sure what you mean by opportunistic. I’ve previously stated how you were in my top suspicions and so today I’d either vote on you or Fura. 

[Elandera]

5 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Elandera, I’m not sure what you mean by opportunistic. I’ve previously stated how you were in my top suspicions and so today I’d either vote on you or Fura. 

I mean that of the reasonings given, yours seems most vague (aside from Ark, but that fits Ark). It seems based on a voting pattern that previously you said fits what I'd usually do. Bard's reasoning was also pretty vague, which is why I called him on it.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Elandera

[Furamirionind]

Wait a second... I'm in Largo 3... not Maill. How did I overlook this?

drake

maill

[DrakeMarshall]

Lots of back and forth between Mailliw and Elandera... Funny thing is, I'm pretty sure they're both elims.

Still, if Bard fired on Mailliw and Mailliw's ship didn't take damage, that basically proves Mailliw's guilt.

100% beats 85% I suppose.

Steel changed it so that ties are decided randomly now, correct?

Edited June 5, 2019 by MrakeDarshall

[Furamirionind]

oh, no rollover. nice.

2 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Lots of back and forth between Mailliw and Elandera... Funny thing is, I'm pretty sure they're both elims.

Still, if Bard fired on Mailliw and Mailliw's ship didn't take damage, that basically proves Mailliw's guilt.

100% beats 85% I suppose.

Steel changed it so that ties are decided randomly now, correct?

I think he did.

Also, yeah. I don't think evil!Bard would make that claim on Maill, as it basically proves one of them is elim.

[StrikerEZ]

Okay, so I decided I should probably do a reread of the thread and give my thoughts on everything that’s happened so far. 

D1:

• So, the first time Bard, one of the people who’s got the most suspicion on them, posted, he basically just said, “hey, what if we just ignore the Krell and let the gunners handle this?” but in RP. I’m gonna chalk that up to him maybe misunderstanding how much of a threat the Krell are, but that could go either way. Either that’s elim!Bard trying to make themselves sound village, or that’s village!Bard being genuine in trying to find a way to keep the elims from killing everyone. I can’t quite tell which one I’m leaning more towards yet.
• Drake responds, saying he’s down for the idea. Though, he mentions that the elims might have the firepower to handle the Krell on our own. Fairly NAI, in my opinion.
• Why did Fura vote on Ark first?
• Elandera does a random vote, votes CadCom (who becomes Lumgol)
• Stick says they’re fine with keeping a no lynch (before the rule change). That’s an odd stance, to me, as a villager, but oh well
• Sart says he isn’t fine with no lynch, votes CadCom
• So, in a quick series of votes, DA votes Ark, then says that CadCom had car troubles, which leads to Elandera switching their vote to Stick because they wanted a no lynch. This could be an attempt by elim!Elandera to prove they want to lynch people, which is generally a good idea for the village, while also getting a villager lynched. Also, Elandera said that apparently Stick had posted enough so that it might’ve given us more info if we lynched her? Stick had just posted twice, which is about as much as Elandera had before this post, but there were people who had been posting far more than either of them (DA and Drake). By their own logic, one of those two or Elandera should’ve been lynched instead of Stick. 
• After DA calls out Elandera and votes on them, Elandera responds with a post that basically amounts to a whole lot of NAI
• DA asked them again to respond about how Stick has posted less than Elandera, but again no response.

N1:

• There’s a whole lot of posts that mean basically nothing at first, then Fura asks for people to PM them, though they won’t be reaching out to anyone. Maybe they were too busy in the elim doc to start making tons of PMs, but hoped people would PM them for information they could give the elims?
• DA asks for everyone to coordinate with him. Here’s the interesting part. I want to see how everyone reacts to this
• Through tons of RP dialogue, Drake basically says that we should focus on teaming up individually instead of coordinating attacks in the thread. He hasn’t said this at this point in the game, but I’d like to point out that a major reason he’s been advocating this plan throughout the game is that he thinks it’ll make it easy to root out the elims, which will scare them from helping the villagers. Which...really wouldn’t have mattered to the villagers earlier on in the game. Like, if the elims can’t get their kill in because they have to cooperate with the village in order to not get ousted as elims, then that ultimately helps everyone because we are able to force the elims to fight the Krell. I’m firmly back in the “suspicious of Drake” camp again.
• He again talks a little bit about what he thinks we should do instead of letting everyone know what ship they’re flying. This time he mentions that, through PM chains, we should be able to catch anyone who’s lying about what ship their in and stuff. Which, would work if there were plenty of people active and participating in the PMs. Which is not the case, as far as I’m aware. The only PMs I’ve received were because I sent them a PM in the first place. One of them is dead (DA) and I don’t really trust the other person (Drake).
• Bard initially argued in favor of keeping things in PM chains, but kinda argued himself into agreeing with making ship stuff public. This could be elim!Bard trying to make himself seem more village, but I’ve been leaning towards a Joe-Drake-Elandera team so far. (Little aside, these three have hardly interacted so far, and the only time Drake and Elandera have interacted at this point was to work on some plans of attack)
• Xino’s first post...reveals literally nothing
• As did their second post
• So, Elandera asked Steel about how many pilots Gunners can shoot per night. I feel like elim!Elandera easily could’ve asked that question, say, in the elim doc, though.
• Ark responds to that post, saying they thought that Gunners could shoot as many pilots as there are Gunners. That could be just a villager reacting that way, or it could be another elim saying that to hide the fact that they found out the same way elim!Elandera did, through the elim doc. I think it’s the former, mostly because I think there were probably only 3 elims to start, and I really think Drake is far more likely to be elim than Ark.
• Devotary called out Drake for assuming that everyone claiming their ships would make it easy to root out the elims, since he’d assumed the elims were only Gunners. Then, Devotary gets killed this night…hmm….
• Xino and Joe commit to firing at J. Could be two elims publicly claiming a ship to be destroyed as if they were both pilots, while one of them uses a turret to take down that ship and the other uses the elim kill. I don’t think that’s likely, though if we lynch Drake and Elandera and they’re both elims, I think Xino should be our next lynch.

D2: 

• Elandera is the first to comment, saying that the reason Devotary was killed doesn’t seem obvious. In hindsight, I think it was pretty obvious, since she was the first to catch on that claiming a ship doesn’t hard clear anyone since Gunners can request ships. This could possibly be elim!Elandera trying to hide the fact that she does know the reason why the elims killed Devotary. 
• Poor Sart, he was wrong about Stick and ended up getting lynched too. I need to figure out which of the next few votes on Stick could be an elim.
• Ark was next to vote on Stick, though they say that could change
• Bard votes on Fura because of perceived low activity. I think I remember Fura being pretty active D1, though there were considerably less posts from them N1. A little weird, though I could chalk that up to Bard remembering their lowered activity from N1 more than their D1 activity.
• Xino commented about DA’s annoyance at Sart appearing genuine, though DA could be a good actor if he’s elim (which he’s not). The real kicker is that Xino says that inactivity is a great tool for elims to use. Xino’s been pretty inactive (I’m actually surprised that there have been as many Xino posts as I’ve seen so far), so it’d be pretty funny if Xino was elim.
• Elandera says they’re not a fan of the Stick lynch. Possibly as a way to gain trust once Stick’s been lynched? I don’t think Elandera’s voted yet, and they easily could’ve started another lynch if they really didn’t like the Stick one so much.
• Ugh, I was so wrong about Sart. Sorry, Sart! Also, in hindsight, I don’t know why I trusted Drake so much in the early game. Looking back on it, he looks so suspicious
• Ark says they’re not joining the Stick lynch because they can’t really do any analysis of their own...but they voted on Stick anyway? That doesn’t make any sense to me. Ark is on my maybe list now, though I don’t think he’s as likely to be an elim as Drake or Elandera
• Stick tried to save herself by voting on Bard, let’s see what Bard said….
• Okay, a lot happens in this Elandera post. First, they again say they don’t like the Stick lynch. They give a few thoughts on some inactives (most of who are alive still), then they again say that they don’t see any reason why the elims could’ve wanted to kill Devotary. Maybe I’m just reading way too much into Devotary predicting that the gunners could use ships, and the fact that Elandera keeps ignoring that, but I definitely think Elandera is elim. They finally end up voting on Walin because...they could’ve been around to ask who to target? That makes even less sense than some other stuff Elandera has posted before.
• There was a series of votes by mostly people that ended up being village which ended up with Bard having one more vote than Sart and Stick, who were tied at 2 votes...and then Drake decides to vote on Joe of all people? Joe had barely posted at all, though apparently he’d been on the thread a lot. I know Joe turned out to be an elim, but that behavior isn’t really exclusive to elims. Heck, that’s what I’ve been doing for most of this game. Anyway, Joe was never really in danger of getting lynched, so I think this could definitely be elim!Drake trying to distance himself from his teammate Joe.
• Next, Maill decides to vote on Stick mostly for meta reasons. I’m having a really time trying to get a read on Maill, though maybe that’s because he’s an elim trying to hide low. I find that unlikely, but if either Drake or Elandera turn out to be village, it’d probably be best to try and put Maill up for lynch, along with Xino
• Hmm...Drake was the key turning point for making the Stick lynch look viable again. Maybe Bard could elim, though I haven’t been getting any elim vibes from him. 
• Also, apparently Bard thought he could take out an entire Krell ship on his own. Maybe he’s an ace, so he thought he could get his abilities sorted out somehow to take down a Krell? I dunno why, but I really just don’t think Bard is an elim, but that claim is just so fishy...I think I’ve been tunneling too much on Drake and Elandera. I think Elandera is more likely to be the elim of those two, but I still really think Drake is an elim….
• Elandera officially puts the lynch in favor of Stick, resulting in her being lynched…if Bard is village, I’m not sure why elim!Elandera would do this...maybe to make themself look sloppy, because who would so obviously move a lynch towards a villager like that as an elim?

N2:

• A whole lot of not much important at the beginning, mainly interactions between tons of now-dead villagers, but then Elandera does something interesting...she says that the persistent votes on Stick at the end were odd and the reasons for voting on Stick were flimsy at best. I don’t think an elim would mess up like that that badly by saying the Stick votes were flimsy when they were literally the person who caused Stick to get lynched in the first place. Now I have to rethink whether I think Elandera is an elim….
• Okay, I forgot about Bard’s explanation of his claim of how he could take a ship down on his own. I totally did the same thing, mixing up the health and destructors when I was piloting a Largo earlier. I’m nowhere near done yet, but I think it’s likely that Bard has been set up as a scapegoat for the elims. It’s pretty easy to claim that the survivor of a last minute lynch change like what happened D2 was because of an elim team trying to save their teammate. When Bard is lynched and turns out to be village, it’ll make it seem like the lynch of Sart was just an unfortunate accident, basically clearing the players that controlled the lynch at that point. (Drake and Elandera-without them the Stick lynch wouldn’t have happened). I think that’s further supported by the fact that, even though Bard thought he was hard cleared and thought the elims would kill him, he still hasn’t been killed. That could be a specific strategy chosen by the elims to put more suspicion onto him.
• Okay, here’s my analysis of Bard’s analysis. First, let’s see what predictions they got right. They pegged Snipexe as neutral, CadCom/Lumgol as slight elim (so wrong, but Bard’s reasoning makes sense), Sart as elim (also wrong), trusted DA, neutral on Walin, and neutral on Joe. So, not very good predictions overall, but I’d say they were good predictions based on the information in the thread alone. 
• I don’t think Fura is the squad leader, though their post asking the squad leader to post their findings could be their explanation for why they do so later.
• I definitely think I was right that there’d be two elims who voted on Stick, though I think I got the distribution of votes wrong. I think both Drake and Elandera are elims.
• Drake admits he pockets people. That’s fairly NAI.

Okay, that’s it for now. I need to go get ready to pick my room for college, so I’ll get back to this later.

EDIT: Just reread the stuff in this thread...forgot that Maill was pretty suspicious. I've never had an elim read on Fura, so I'm pretty sure I can trust them. I think Elandera will probably end up being lynched despite Maill being the better lynch for today, so I'm not gonna vote on her. I'm gonna vote on Mailliw.

Edited June 5, 2019 by StrikerEZ

[+Ark1002]

Well, Bard revealed Maill, 99% sure.

So I'll join this lynch.

Elandera. Maill.

[DrakeMarshall]

Sure, why not.

Elandera Mailliw

 

[Furamirionind]

29 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

• Elandera says they’re not a fan of the Stick lynch. Possibly as a way to gain trust once Stick’s been lynched? I don’t think Elandera’s voted yet, and they easily could’ve started another lynch if they really didn’t like the Stick one so much.

36 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

A whole lot of not much important at the beginning, mainly interactions between tons of now-dead villagers, but then Elandera does something interesting...she says that the persistent votes on Stick at the end were odd and the reasons for voting on Stick were flimsy at best. I don’t think an elim would mess up like that that badly by saying the Stick votes were flimsy when they were literally the person who caused Stick to get lynched in the first place. Now I have to rethink whether I think Elandera is an elim….

37 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I definitely think I was right that there’d be two elims who voted on Stick, though I think I got the distribution of votes wrong. I think both Drake and Elandera are elims.

Hmm? Would you mind elaborating more? This is the problem I have with timeline formatted analysis vs player formatted analysis.

39 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I don’t think Fura is the squad leader, though their post asking the squad leader to post their findings could be their explanation for why they do so later.

I've been trying my best, okay?!? : P

40 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

EDIT: Just reread the stuff in this thread...forgot that Maill was pretty suspicious. I've never had an elim read on Fura, so I'm pretty sure I can trust them.

You absolutely cannot trust me. If you don't trust me, go reread my analysis post where I claimed elim... Granted, if you don't trust me, you probably wont trust that analysis... Hmm...

41 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I think Elandera will probably end up being lynched despite Maill being the better lynch for today, so I'm not gonna vote on her. I'm gonna vote on Mailliw.

37 minutes ago, Ark1002 said:

Well, Bard revealed Maill, 99% sure.

So I'll join this lynch.

Elandera. Maill.

31 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Sure, why not.

Elandera Mailliw

:thinking_face:

Hmm.

On this topic, thought must be had...

[Elandera]

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

• Elandera officially puts the lynch in favor of Stick, resulting in her being lynched…if Bard is village, I’m not sure why elim!Elandera would do this...maybe to make themself look sloppy, because who would so obviously move a lynch towards a villager like that as an elim?

N2:

• A whole lot of not much important at the beginning, mainly interactions between tons of now-dead villagers, but then Elandera does something interesting...she says that the persistent votes on Stick at the end were odd and the reasons for voting on Stick were flimsy at best. I don’t think an elim would mess up like that that badly by saying the Stick votes were flimsy when they were literally the person who caused Stick to get lynched in the first place. Now I have to rethink whether I think Elandera is an elim….

I've said this before. Look at the timing of my vote change, and look at my arguments D1 (and past games, including one where I lynched myself for the sake of having a lynch). The votes were tied between Bard and Stick. No one else was on, and it was within the last 10 minutes if the turn, IIRC. As village, we couldn't afford to not lynch someone for the second turn in a row. That loses valuable time to gain information, allowing elims to better control who dies. At least when someone is actually lynched and we see their alignment, we can look at the voting patterns. I still think, even being the deciding vote, that the attempt at a tie was to save Bard. The only thing I could do to ensure a lynch was to turn on Stick, even if I found Bard the better choice. A tie would have left us in the same place as when we started that turn. Or worse, because we could have been wondering if the votes were trying to save Stick too, leading to a second turn wasted on votes split between Bard and Stick.

EDIT: Not that I'm defending Maill, as I do believe he's a better lynch candidate, but couldn't he also be flying one of the ships with a downed shield? Just because Bard hit them once doesn't mean they'd take automatic damage. Why would you assume it had to be Largo 3?

Edited June 5, 2019 by Elandera

[Young Bard]

Welp. I honestly wasn't expecting that, but Elandera, Mailliw.

I'm kind of paranoid that LyLo is this cycle, and that Fura, Elan and a third player are Elims. With an Elim kill tonight, it becomes 3-5, with two inactive villagers - to make sure that doesn't happen can we all agree that if Maill is innocent we can afford to ignore the Krell for one cycle and blow Fura out of the sky?

[Elandera]

Ignore my above edit. I was misremembering the ship list, and thought there were two ships with downed shields along with the Largo 2 which was damaged. 

Edited June 5, 2019 by Elandera
Words are hard...

[Furamirionind]

This has been a very sudden shift to Maill... idk what to think

[Elandera]

4 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

This has been a very sudden shift to Maill... idk what to think

I mean, it is odd, but I can't disagree with it. If Bard shot Maill, and Striker is in Largo 2 and you're in Largo 3, then Maill isn't in a ship. So either he's an elim, or we're about to make a huge mistake and lynch the SK.

[Furamirionind]

2 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I mean, it is odd, but I can't disagree with it. If Bard shot Maill, and Striker is in Largo 2 and you're in Largo 3, then Maill isn't in a ship. So either he's an elim, or we're about to make a huge mistake and lynch the SK.

I don't think Maill is the SK...

[Elandera]

7 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I don't think Maill is the SK...

Agreed. Then he has to be an elim, unless Bard is lying. And as someone (Striker?) pointed out, lying to get a villager lynched would turn on him quickly.

[Mailliw73]

As much as I love Fura doubting now, I’m definitely a gunner. I’ve been taking down the Krell for you too. And this is your payment? This is why I left the DDF. 

Mainly I just want to point out that I do not ever support the inactive elim strategy or think it’s a good one. My inactivity was not intentional and I wish I had been able to put in more time to make a better game out of it. But you did well, Bard. 

See you on the other side. I’m coming, Joe. 

[Furamirionind]

... I say we leave Maill alive!

Maill

Edited June 5, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Mailliw73]

Whooo!  Fura is best pilot. 

[StrikerEZ]

@Furamirionind I'm just gonna explain some of my thoughts without having to quote you too. 

Here's the quote from Elandera:

Spoiler

Unfortunately, no Pilot ship does enough damage. Largos and MBot are the closest with 4 destructors, meaning 4 damage. Only one action also means they have to work in coordination with someone else for an IMP to be effective.

Gunners, however, can 1-shot a Krell ship, as AA turrets do 10 damage.

I'm not really a fan of the Stick lynch, because it's kind of baseless. DA would be the better target for a lynch based on reaction to not having one last cycle. He was the one really pushing for that.

Also, DA, why not vote on Sart if you're so suspicious?

I'm of half a mind to vote on you, but won't because you are just returning and lynching you now would be unfortunate.

I'll need to give more thought before I vote. I'm just waking up still.

My comment on it:

Spoiler

• Elandera says they’re not a fan of the Stick lynch. Possibly as a way to gain trust once Stick’s been lynched? I don’t think Elandera’s voted yet, and they easily could’ve started another lynch if they really didn’t like the Stick one so much.

My point was, Elandera easily could've started a lynch on DA since she thought he'd be a better target than Stick, but went ahead and followed along on the Stick lynch, ultimately forcing herself to be the deciding factor in the Stick lynch anyway (Though @Elandera, I realized I'd completely misread the situation-I thought Stick and Bard were already tied before you voted on Stick, even though you clearly had already voted on Bard)

The next thing you quoted, Fura, was also because of me misunderstanding what happened at the end of D2.

My post giving my thoughts on the Stick lynch:

Spoiler

As for the Stick lynch, I have a few ideas. I'm thinking that if either Sart or Ark is an elim, it's pretty likely one of the next three people who voted on Stick was an elim. It could make sense for an elim to put a lynch vote on Stick, then once the lynch started gaining traction, another elim could hop on the bandwagon and take out a villager. If this is the case, I think Elandera is the most likely to be the second elim out of the three people who voted on Stick after Sart and Ark. Unless I'm remembering incorrectly, I think they switched their vote pretty last minute.

My comment on it: 

Spoiler

I definitely think I was right that there’d be two elims who voted on Stick, though I think I got the distribution of votes wrong. I think both Drake and Elandera are elims.

Basically, I meant that I had it right that there would be two elims who voted on Stick, though not one from the first two and one from the last three, but two from the first three.

Anyway, I'd completely forgotten Bard's reveal about Maill's potential elim-ness because of Bard shooting Maill (which, speaking of, @Mailliw73-you haven't responded to defend yourself yet. Could be just because of time zones, though), so a lot of the analysis I did was wasted because I wasn't taking that into consideration. I'll definitely do a player analysis tomorrow once we get the results from this lynch, though.

Whelp, Maill just posted. Okay, guess he is an elim then.