Quick Fix Game 20: Summitmist Manor

[Sart he/him]

5 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

That, is in fact a vote on Stink. Uh. . .

Vote Tally:
Stink (1): Elenion.
Stick (1): Arinian.
Elenion (3): Magestar, Nyali, Stick.
Technically not Nyali yet (1): Kipper

That kind of take a big part of my argument away. Elenion and Arinian aren't voting together. . . I'm going to retract my vote on Elenion and go back to watching and lurking.

This is why the village has such trouble winning. Watch and lurk? The whole village is watching and lurking! We have had ten people post in this thread. Only half of them have voted. I find it highly unlikely that all of those lurkers are Eliminators. Therefore, I urge those villagers watching and lurking to vote. That is the only way we catch Eliminators. Not voting will kill us. Eliminators are incentivized to vote, as they know who they need to kill. If Elenion was truly an Eliminator, we should have seen more votes. I doubt his teammates would rush to lynch him, and Kipper's vote isn't counting. That only leaves 2 votes, one of whom is Elenion's! There's no effort to save Elenion, which means that the Eliminators are fine with him dying. Considering how many people we have lost, I doubt they are sacrificing one of their own in order to get trusted. Thus, I very highly suspect that Elenion is a villager. Moreover, since Eliminators are more likely to vote, it seems highly likely to me that at least one of them has voted this cycle. I doubt it is Elenion, for reasons I have already stated. I also doubt that it is Kipper, as he knows that votes have to be in red to count. I have already expressed my suspicion of Stick before, so I'm not surprised Arinian is voting for him, as he is following my argument. Joe, your argument against him is frankly unfounded. Here's what you keep quoting:

Quote

If guess that stick is village then I think that Sart can be elim

Let me rephrase that: "I am suspicious of Stick, but if Stick is village, then I would be suspicious of Sart." That's not bad logic. I've already been wrong once with my vote on Cloudjumper. It would make sense to be suspicious of me if I was wrong a second time. Yet you are claiming that he should skip a step, and just vote for me. He's doubting his judgement today, but he is trusting his previous intuition. That reads village to me. Later on, you ask:

4 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

And, now that I know that Elenion and you aren't voting for the same person, it's even more suspicious. You're not voting on Stick because that puts stick at 2 votes to Elenion's 3. Now, I don't know why you're voting for stick still. 

How the heck is it suspicious that two people are voting for different people? I didn't know how to feel about Elenion until 3 people suddenly voted for him, and nobody bothered to defend him. Joe, you immediately jumped to the conclusion that Arinian was trying to save Elenion. You are assuming that Elenion and Arinian are working together. I don't think that's a fair conclusion. Arinian is voting because he thinks someone is suspicious! That's normal village behavior, not a grand conspiracy. I'll be honest, my suspicion of Stick has lowered some after last cycle. If he was an Eliminator, they probably would have broken the tie between him and Alvron. However, this has significantly raised my suspicion of you. Retracting your vote on Elenion reeks of an Eliminator not wanting to be accused of joining a bandwagon. Joe, you're my best lead right now.

Edited December 18, 2016 by Sart
your to you're

[A Joe in the Bush]

You're misinterperting the second quote sart. I'm suspicious of Ari for not voting for you because he finds you more auspicious of you then Stick. I used to think he was voting for stick because Len was as well, so it was less suspicious. But now that I understand that Len is voting for Stink.

And I will watch and Lurk, because I am not good at traditional analysis. I prefer using roles and pm's to lay traps for the eliminators. I'm struggling with this game because I'm not good at the skills necessary for this game. I'm waiting until there are less people to examine, because then i'll be able to be of use in analysing them.

[Arinian]

18 minutes ago, Sart said:

This is why the village has such trouble winning. Watch and lurk? The whole village is watching and lurking! We have had ten people post in this thread. Only half of them have voted. I find it highly unlikely that all of those lurkers are Eliminators. Therefore, I urge those villagers watching and lurking to vote. That is the only way we catch Eliminators. Not voting will kill us. Eliminators are incentivized to vote, as they know who they need to kill. If Elenion was truly an Eliminator, we should have seen more votes. I doubt his teammates would rush to lynch him, and Kipper's vote isn't counting. That only leaves 2 votes, one of whom is Elenion's! There's no effort to save Elenion, which means that the Eliminators are fine with him dying. Considering how many people we have lost, I doubt they are sacrificing one of their own in order to get trusted. Thus, I very highly suspect that Elenion is a villager. Moreover, since Eliminators are more likely to vote, it seems highly likely to me that at least one of them has voted this cycle. I doubt it is Elenion, for reasons I have already stated. I also doubt that it is Kipper, as he knows that votes have to be in red to count. I have already expressed my suspicion of Stick before, so I'm not surprised Arinian is voting for him, as he is following my argument. Joe, your argument against him is frankly unfounded. Here's what you keep quoting:

Let me rephrase that: "I am suspicious of Stick, but if Stick is village, then I would be suspicious of Sart." That's not bad logic. I've already been wrong once with my vote on Cloudjumper. It would make sense to be suspicious of me if I was wrong a second time. Yet you are claiming that he should skip a step, and just vote for me. He's doubting his judgement today, but he is trusting his previous intuition. That reads village to me. Later on, you ask:

How the heck is it suspicious that two people are voting for different people? I didn't know how to feel about Elenion until 3 people suddenly voted for him, and nobody bothered to defend him. Joe, you immediately jumped to the conclusion that Arinian was trying to save Elenion. You are assuming that Elenion and Arinian are working together. I don't think that's a fair conclusion. Arinian is voting because he thinks someone is suspicious! That's normal village behavior, not a grand conspiracy. I'll be honest, my suspicion of Stick has lowered some after last cycle. If he was an Eliminator, they probably would have broken the tie between him and Alvron. However, this has significantly raised my suspicion of you. Retracting your vote on Elenion reeks of an Eliminator not wanting to be accused of joining a bandwagon. Joe, your my best lead right now.

I don't like belive to people who says that see villager in me, because I think that they just want to gain my trust( I'm just paranoidal). But i should agree with you, as I can see right now there no people who gonna vote on Stick, and soon I gonna go sleep little bit so my vote on Stick will be just waste. So I will just believe your conclusions.

Stick Joe

[JUQ he/him]

What's with this sudden Joe bandwagon? Len has been suspicious for a while, but now it seems as if the elims are quickly voting in order to save their comrade. This makes me suspicious of Len, Sart, and Arinian. Sart is the most suspicious to me so far, so I'm going to vote on him.

[Arinian]

5 minutes ago, JUQ said:

What's with this sudden Joe bandwagon? Len has been suspicious for a while, but now it seems as if the elims are quickly voting in order to save their comrade. This makes me suspicious of Len, Sart, and Arinian. Sart is the most suspicious to me so far, so I'm going to vote on him.

So why you just don't vote for our "comrade" Len? Or Len is your comrade and you just safely trying to redirect votes from him. Why safely? Because if Len gonna be lynched and It turns out that he elim you will say that you accused him, but in the same time you not assure his death(that's what makes me suspicios of you)(Hope It's understandable. And now I'm gone).

[JUQ he/him]

Just now, Arinian said:

So why you just don't vote for our "comrade" Len? Or Len is your comrade and you just safely trying to redirect votes from him. Why safely? Because if Len gonna be lynched and It turns out that he elim you will say that you accused him, but in the same time you not assure his death(that's what makes me suspicios of you)(Hope It's understandable. And now I'm gone).

Notice I said that Sart is the most suspicious? However, I've just finished my re-read and I'm more suspicious of you and Len now. I don't think I have enough information for a vote just yet, which is why I'm retracting my vote on Sart.

[Arrae]

So, last cycle, three people were tied. One of them would be lynched at random. I think all three were villagers, because if one was an elim, wouldn't at least one of the other elims have added a vote to one of the other two villagers, rather than leaving the loss of a teammate to chance? This gives me a slight trust toward JUQ and Arinian.

Other people have pointed out that maybe the other elims weren't online at the time, or they thought it was better to lose a teammate than to suspiciously tip the tie a certain way. If Nyali was an elim, it seems like this is trying to convince us that there aren't any elims in the C1 lynch.

I doubt that JUQ and Arinian are elims together -- JUQ tipped the tie towards Arinian. Few eliminators in their right mind would try to bus their teammate C1 with no reasoning, so JUQ and Arinian can't be elims together. I think we would learn a lot if we lynched either one of them.

---

Vote Tally for C1
All timestamps are in PST. Bolded lines show where new votes have been placed.

7:55 PM -12:00 AM

Spoiler

Arinian: (1) Sart
Doc: (1) Rae
Cloudjumper: (1) Doc
Joe: (1) Ecth
Ecth: (1) Len

Beginning of the game. So far everything just looks like normal pokevotes.

12:01 AM - 4:00 AM

Spoiler

Arinian: (2) Sart, Stick
Doc: (1) Rae
Cloudjumper: (1) Doc
Joe: (1) Ecth
Ecth: (1) Len
Assassin: (1) Nyali
Kynedath: (1) Kasimir

The votes spread out even more. Two votes are now on Arinian.

4:01 AM - 8:00 AM

Spoiler

Arinian: (2) Sart, Stick
Doc: (1) Rae
Cloudjumper: (2) Doc, Lopen
Joe: (1) Ecth
Ecth (2): Len, Kasimir
Assassin: (1) Nyali
Lopen: (1) Kynedath

Arinian, Ecth, and Cloudjumper are now tied at two votes. Kasimir is the first person to vote on Ecth for his mention of the Five Tenets. Len also looks on Google, and calls out Ecth for mentioning the Five Tenets.

8:01 AM - 12:00 PM

Spoiler

Arinian: (4) Sart, Stick, Cloud, JUQ
Doc: (1) Rae
Cloudjumper: (2) Doc, Lopen
Joe: (1) Ecth
Ecth: (3) Len, Kasimir, Kynedath
Assassin: (1) Nyali
Stick: (1) Arinian

Cloud votes on Arinian, which breaks the three-way tie. Act of self-preservation, maybe? Then Arinian and Ecth are tied by Kynedath. Afterwards, JUQ votes on Arinian, which puts Arinian in the lead.

12:01 PM - 4:00 PM

Spoiler

Arinian: (2) Cloud, JUQ
Cloudjumper: (2) Doc, Lopen
Joe: (1) Ecth
Ecth: (5) Len, Kasimir, Kynedath, Alv, Nyali
Stick: (1) Arinian
Alv: (2) Sart, Orlok
Kynedath: (1) Rae

As Stick promised, once Arinian posted, she retracted her vote. Nyali votes on Ecth, which puts Ecth in the lead. The wagon on Arinian disapates a little.

4:01 PM - 8:00 PM

Spoiler

Arinian: (3) Cloud, JUQ, Ecth
Cloudjumper: (2) Doc, Lopen
Ecth: (4) Len, Kasimir, Kynedath, Alv
Stick: (1) Arinian
Alv: (2) Sart, Orlok
Kynedath: (1) Rae

Ecth ended in the lead, and got lynched. If Arinian is an elim, I think Len and/or Kynedath is also an elim trying to make sure he didn't die. Also, it's possible that if Nyali is an elim, she retracted because she counted the votes and realized that Ecth had so many votes that she didn't need to vote for him. We'd gain a lot of information from Arinian's death, and I think he might be an elim. Arinian.

Another thing I've noticed is that Doc and Lopen both voted for Cloud and died. I think Cloud is worth watching. EDIT: whoops, Cloud is dead. 

If anybody else wants to analyze that, go ahead.

Edited December 18, 2016 by Arraenae
New info

[JUQ he/him]

2 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

I think Cloud is worth watching.

If ze was still alive I'd agree .

[Arrae]

Oh... whoops...

[Magestar he/him]

Could we have a vote tally?

[Sart he/him]

Vote Count:
Stink (1): Elenion
Elenion (3): Magestar, Nyali, Stick, Joe
Stick (0): Arinian
Nyali (1): Kipper
Joe (2): Sart, Arinian
Sart (0): JUQ
Arinian (1): Rae

Edited December 18, 2016 by Sart
Miscounted votes

[Haelbarde he/him]

Cycle has ended. 

[Assassin in Burgundy he/him]

4 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

You're misinterperting the second quote sart. I'm suspicious of Ari for not voting for you because he finds you more auspicious of you then Stick. I used to think he was voting for stick because Len was as well, so it was less suspicious. But now that I understand that Len is voting for Stink.

And I will watch and Lurk, because I am not good at traditional analysis. I prefer using roles and pm's to lay traps for the eliminators. I'm struggling with this game because I'm not good at the skills necessary for this game. I'm waiting until there are less people to examine, because then i'll be able to be of use in analysing them.

This kind of gives off Elim-y vibes to me. Mostly a gut feeling, but I think you're just looking for excuses to fly under the radar. Joe.

EDIT: Crap, cycle ended. Sorry bout that. 

Edited December 18, 2016 by Assassin in Burgundy

[Haelbarde he/him]

Cycle 5 –

Writeup to come later - was out all this morning. 

---

Elenion was lynched. He was a Dark Brotherhood Assassin. He had 257 gold, 1 Bottle of Cheap Wine, a copy of ‘Myth or Menace’, Wrist Irons, Stitched Leather Shoes, 3 Tongs, and 2 Bottles of Mead.
Arraenae was killed. She was a Guest. She had 27 gold, a copy of ‘The Red Book of Riddles’, Oiled Linen Shoes, and 14 Paint Brushes.

Kynedath did not post and has lost their free pass.
OrlokTsubodai did not post and has lost their free pass.
Burnt Spaghetti did not post and has lost their free pass.
Stink did not post and has lost their free pass.

Please note that posting about claiming items does not count as a game relevant post, and will in future result in losing your free post if it’s the only thing you do.

Vote Tally
Stink(1): Elenion
Elenion(3): Magestar, Nyali, Stick
Nyali(1): Kipper
Joe(2): Sart, Arinian
Arinian(1): Rae
 

 

Stink(1): Elenion{1}
Elenion(3): Magestar{1}, Nyali{1}, Stick{1}, Joe{1}
Stick(0): Arinian{1}
Nyali(1): Kipper{1}
Joe(2): Sart{1}, Arinian{2}
Sart(0): JUQ{1}
Arinian(1): Rae{1}

Loot Crate

 

> 284 gold
> a copy of ‘The Five Tenets’
> a copy of ‘Guide to Skingrad’
> a copy of 'Macabre Manifest'
> a copy of ‘Myth or Menace’
> a copy of ‘The Red Book of Riddles’
> a copy of 'On Oblivion'
> Fur Boots
> Huntsman Moccasins
> Buckled Shoes
> Sackcloth Sandals
> a Leather Boot
> Stitched Leather Shoes
> Oiled Linen Shoes
> Silver Mace
> Dagger
> Silver-capped Staff (Stendarr's Toothpick)
> a Grand Soul Gem
> Wrist Irons
> 3 Tongs
> 14 Paint Brushes
> 2 Bottles of Cheap Wine
> 2 Bottles of Mead
> all the cheese
> 17 Dragon’s Tongue Flowers
> 5 Lavender Sprigs
> 2 Nightshade Flowers
> 3 Fly Amanita Caps

Assassin gets Ebony Claymore and 5 Gold from Joe
Kynedath gets 4 lockpicks and 1192 gold.
Joe gets the ‘Bible of the Deep Ones’ and pays out 40 gold
Magestar gets the Black Cowl and 5 gold from Joe
Stick gets 10 gold
Sart gets 5 gold
Arinian gets 5 gold
JUQ gets 5 gold
Nyali gets 5 Gold

Cycle ends in ~23 hours.

Player List

 

1. Glathir (The Only Joe in the Bush) a paranoid, slightly homicidal Bosmer
2. Stormblessed (Mesa the Ookla / Darkness Ascendant) an illegitimate beggar Guest
3. Sartinia (Sart) a high elf who has lost their way
4. Boris (Elenion) has a drinking problem Dark Brotherhood Assassin
5. Thendir (Magestar) a Dunmer, and Magister of House Telvanhi
6. Arinian (Arinian)
7. Fjord (Assassin in Burgundy) is a Khajit escaped from a collector
8. Lyce Norvo (Kynedath) is an antisocial Dark Elf 
9. Helchon (Doc) an Altmer Guest
10. Tu (cloudjumper) is a mysterious cow smuggler Guest
11. Stub-Tail (Alvron) a Saxhleel Guest
12. Stick (I am a Stick)
13. Kipper (Kipper) Kipper
14. Guilty (Elodin) until proven otherwise, but innocently harmless. Guest
15. Innocent (Ecthelion) probably. Seems sus though. Guest
16. Galerion (OrlokTsubodai) is a reserved Altmer.
17. Rhea (Nyali) is a Breton scholar obsessed with Dwemer technology.
18. Jayjay (Arraenae) is a little Paranoid Guest
19. Zelda (TheMightyLopen) is a wise Sagemer Guest
20. Adarjmei (Burnt Spaghetti) is a kleptomaniac kitty khajiit.
21. Kjartan & Mus (Kasimir), the Boot(s?) of Stendarr Guest
22. John (JUQ) general
23. Ladric (Stink) is a blank slate

Edited December 19, 2016 by Haelbarde

[Assassin in Burgundy he/him]

Wow I am so glad I had dinner and my vote for Joe didn't come in before the cycle ended. 

[Sart he/him]

Yeah... I'm pretty embarrassed by that one. I got too paranoid, and thought that the obvious suspects couldn't be right, because they were too obvious. Still, this nets us several nearly confirmed villagers, and some good suspects. I'll place my vote on Kynedath right now. It's nothing personal, but now that we know that Elenion was evil, it makes his participation in the Ecth lynch more suspicious. Hopefully he responds, but if he doesn't, we should let the inactivity filter take him, and vote for another candidate.

[Stick. she/her]

Quote

Vote Tally
Stink(1): Elenion
Elenion(3): Magestar, Nyali, Stick
Nyali(1): Kipper
Joe(2): Sart, Arinian
Arinian(1): Rae

Seeee? I told you that elims are going to try and change the vote at the last moment. These votes on Joe seem too suspicious and too bandwagon-y. Arinian.

It would suck if Arinian's a villager & Joe turns out to be an elim.

[Arinian]

2 hours ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Seeee? I told you that elims are going to try and change the vote at the last moment. These votes on Joe seem too suspicious and too bandwagon-y. Arinian.

It would suck if Arinian's a villager & Joe turns out to be an elim.

Okay now I'm not gonna vote against you and I'm villager . 

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

Updated Percentages:
0% good, 50% dunno/neutral, 100% bad/die fiend!
1- Glathir (The Only Joe in the Bush) - 48%
2- Sartinia (Sart) 53%
3- Thendir (Magestar) 35%
4- Arinian (Arinian) - 63%
5- Fjord (Assassin in Burgundy) 50%
6- Lyce Norvo (Kynedath) 60%
7- Stick (I am a Stick) 25%
8- Kipper (Kipper) 45%
9- Galerion (OrlokTsubodai) 45% 
10- Rhea (Nyali) 40%
11- Adarjmei (Burnt Spaghetti) -n/a cause bias. 
12- John (JUQ) 40%
13- Ladric (Stink) 45%

 

I have to agree that now Arinians not looking too good. With the D1 lynch stuff and now as stick pointed out, trying to swing the lynch to Joe rather than elenion... I'd be content to see him lynched. Arinian . As my percentages show I'm also suspicious of Kyne, but arinian is my greater suspicion.

 

Also, I claim all the shoes in the loot crate.

 

And apologies for the lack of posting last cycle.

[Arinian]

2 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

I have to agree that now Arinians not looking too good. With the D1 lynch stuff and now as stick pointed out, trying to swing the lynch to Joe rather than elenion... I'd be content to see him lynched. Arinian . As my percentages show I'm also suspicious of Kyne, but arinian is my greater suspicion.

Also, I claim all the shoes in the loot crate.

And apologies for the lack of posting last cycle.

Ohh... I understand you just want my shoes! And also I know that I'm villager sooo... Kynedath.

[Magestar he/him]

I'd like to have all the cheese, and I'd like to know what color the Oiled Linen Shoes are.   Are any of the shoes Black, to match my nice, black cowl?  

3 hours ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Seeee? I told you that elims are going to try and change the vote at the last moment. These votes on Joe seem too suspicious and too bandwagon-y. Arinian.

I'm also going to vote on Arinian.  I think that it will give us a lot of information, and, also, if he's village, then we can lynch Joe.   Kynedath might be next, but I'm kind of surprised Arinian has lasted this long.

---

Thendir stood in front of a large mirror he had found.  "Hmmm."  He spun around.  He turned left, and then right.  Yes, the [Black Cowl] fit him very, very nicely.  He was confident that he now was the best looking person in the tower.  Thendir spun around, and set off to find someone to tell about it.

[Nyali she/her]

Whoo, got one! I want to vote on Arinian, for two reasons. First, his vote on Joe could be seen as an attempt to save Len from the lynch, but also, Rae had voted for him and Rae was killed by the elims last night. Coincidence? Attempt to frame Arinian? I don't know, but it looks suspicious to me.

But then I remember cycle two, where there was a threeway tie:

Vote Tally
Arinian(3): Nyali, JUQ, Kynedath
JUQ(3): Kas, Elenion, Doc
Kynedath(2): Arraenae, Arinian
Cloudjumper(3): Sart, Joe, Alv
Rae(1): Stink

Would the elims have left it up to chance that an elim would not be randomly chosen to die when one of them could have easily (and mostly unsuspiciously) added a vote to a villager like Cloud? I dunno. But I'm going to hold off on voting for Arinian. I'm going to have to come back to this later after I've thought about it some more before placing a vote.

[Stick. she/her]

I'm confused. Part of me wants to change my vote from Arinian to Kynedath now. But I don't know...Maybe I'll do that when we're closer towards turnover, or maybe not at all :/

[Arinian]

31 minutes ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

I'm confused. Part of me wants to change my vote from Arinian to Kynedath now. But I don't know...Maybe I'll do that when we're closer towards turnover, or maybe not at all :/

Retract your vote. Believe me I'm good guy . Okay let's make a deal. If you will retract your vote and then occures that I'm elim, in all future games where I gonna be elim I won't kill you(at least during  first 3 cycles).

Edited December 18, 2016 by Arinian

[Kynedath]

Sorry guys! I didn't know that I was going to be away from the Internet for so long. I probably will be again today though. I regret it, but I don't have a choice. I'm sorry! Please don't lunch me!