Long Game 12: Shadows of Elantris

[Kipper]

...Because Meta gave up his role in public, we would have no suspects with regards to who killed him, because we all knew. That's not the same here as it is with phattemer, but again, I was just trying to puzzle out what happened for myself, not as much for any of the other players...

But we knew that Phatt was a Priest. We all knew.

My main suspicions for today are Haelbarde and Ostrich. Haelbarde because he really hasn't contributed much. It almost seems like he's seized onto this poetry thing as a way for people to see him and go, "Oh, he's active." With Kas, at least it's usually spoilered out at the end of the post.

Ostrich is disturbing, but I don't think we can afford to lynch him. After all, what if he's a Pirate or a Warrior holding/protecting Meta or Wilson or Kas? Sure, it might not be likely, but he has to have been doing something in PMs to remain active. (At least I'm pretty sure being in the doc for Eliminators wouldn't count as being active.)

Lastly, I just can't see Aonar dropping out if he was an Eliminator. He loves trolling too much and takes great glee out of it. It wouldn't be like him to pass such a good opportunity up.

[Sart]

Alright, so I'm filling in for Wonko this game. I haven't analyzed all of the voting yet, but I have to ask a major question. Where the heck is Ostrich? Look, I know I've done the strategy of hiding from sight during a game, but it did not help the village. True, he could be doing good behind the scenes, but eventually, work behind the scenes must come into the light. So, what have you found out?

[Araris Valerian]

@ Wilson: Oops, it seems I confused his rebuttal with a vote. In that case I would like to change my vote to Clanky. The other points that I brought up about Honey Badger are still valid, however. Also, you said that the two other people that are participating in conversation are Kipper and Haelbarde. But as has been mentioned, mostly Hael has been posting poetry and very convenient links. Also, Wyrm seems to be fairly active. I am going to be giving a graduation speech in about 3 hours, after which I have some celebrating to do, which I can follow with much more attention to this game. However, aside from inactivity, the only people that really stood out to me are the ones that I mentioned above.

[Alvron]

Ostrich is disturbing, but I don't think we can afford to lynch him. After all, what if he's a Pirate or a Warrior holding/protecting Meta or Wilson or Kas? Sure, it might not be likely, but he has to have been doing something in PMs to remain active. (At least I'm pretty sure being in the doc for Eliminators wouldn't count as being active.)

Lastly, I just can't see Aonar dropping out if he was an Eliminator. He loves trolling too much and takes great glee out of it. It wouldn't be like him to pass such a good opportunity up.

Your point about Ostrich could be applied to anyone.  If we went with your logic of anyone being a pirate then we wouldn't be lynching anyone.  For all we know he could just be asking questions of the GMs in the PM which would allow him to be 'active' while also doing nothing.

 

I can see Aonar dropping out as an Eliminator.  Aonar is very busy IRL so won't be able to give full attention to the game.  If he's a Cultist, he would drop out so as to not hinder his team.

 

Edit: Grammar

Edited June 5, 2015 by Alvron

[Kipper]

No, certainly not. We can't apply that logic to anyone. The fact that he has been inactive completely implies to me that he has a role of some sort. I realize that I haven't had a game with a ton of lurkers before, so perhaps someone can answer this question. Would an Eliminator go completely inactive, knowing that this would be a suspicion-drawer?

Just generally speaking, I don't like the idea of lynching inactives, unless they haven't given an excuse and/or you know their playstyle is drastically different. I would much prefer to lynch someone who I've heard talk.

I realize that he is busy IRL (and as a meta-game point, he hasn't been doing much in Oregon either). I just doubt that he would completely drop as a Cultist. I guess you've known him longer though, so I'm perfectly willing to bend on that. However, neither Wyrm nor Aonar really seemed suspicious to me.

[little wilson]

I can see Aonar dropping out as an Eliminator.  Aonar is very busy IRL so won't be able to give full attention to the game.  If he's a Cultist, he would drop out so as to not hinder his team.

 

^^This. If the game was distracting him from schoolwork and could compromise his grades, he'd absolutely drop out. I don't think he'd like it (regardless of the team he was on), but he'd do it. And he'd be a lot more likely to drop out as an eliminator and get a replacement than as a villager.

[Kipper]

Why so?

And I didn't realize school was still in session for most...perks of being me.

[Alvron]

No, certainly not. We can't apply that logic to anyone. The fact that he has been inactive completely implies to me that he has a role of some sort. I realize that I haven't had a game with a ton of lurkers before, so perhaps someone can answer this question. Would an Eliminator go completely inactive, knowing that this would be a suspicion-drawer?

Just generally speaking, I don't like the idea of lynching inactives, unless they haven't given an excuse and/or you know their playstyle is drastically different. I would much prefer to lynch someone who I've heard talk.

And if that role is Gyorn?  We know that the Gyorn is active as they are recruiting but that doesn't mean that they are posting in thread.  Where better to hide.  The cultists aren't going to kill them as they aren't a threat.  We aren't going to lynch them as that slows down any discussion we have for that cycle.  It's a good place to hide if you want people to think you are suspicious but not enough to bother killing.

[Kipper]

Well, good points, to be sure. I had not considered that as a good strategy for the Gyorn before. I'm not sure that I want to remove my vote on Haelbarde for this cycle yet, though.

[dowanx]

I just went through the mammoth task of rereading the entire thread. Here are my thoughts on a couple people I find suspicious and two I am pretty sure are Cultists.

 

I should also note this is my first time doing a really deep analysis so I am sorry if it's not up to par with others or if it has a mistake or two. I hope to get better with time, but the only way to learn is to try.

 

 

Zas

 

This suspicion is based on the idea that whoever leaked Phatt’s Role is most likely a Cultist.  The suspect pool started out with Wonko, Phatt, Zas, Neo, and Ren.  We know Neo and Ren can’t be Cultists due to being cleared by scans which then leaves Wonko, Phatt, and Zas.

 

I decided to look at Wonko first out of those three.  I found several reasons why Wonko is most likely not the leak, but what stood out most, at least for me, was his response when he found out the Cultists knew Phatt’s role.  

 

 

I have not read most of this, but I needed to post this NOW.

 

We NEED a Jindo protector on Phatt. He is the priest and the cultists know it. he was attacked last night, but survived on a Pendant he was given by Renegade.

 

He also says Maill should give him his pendant.

 

He has scanned Wilson and Ren as loyal.

 

Zas is a convert. they have three votes on him, as it's either him or Neo, and they figured why help the Gyorn. So I will switch my vote to Zas.

Sorry about the delay (again). I will say more when I have actually read this thread.

 

 

This just doesn’t sound like a Cultist to me.   

 

The are other reasons I mentioned before are his participation in the Day 1 Bandwagon, stepping out of the game (Aonar might step out when playing as an eliminator, but I doubt Wonko who hasn’t been an eliminator yet would) and his cooperation with Phatt.  Between all of this I just don’t think he is the source of the leak or a Cultist.

 

Next I looked if Phatt leaked it himself.  This didn’t add up either.  Phatt had time to look over his PMs with Winter and check if he leaked the PMs himself.  If he found that he did indeed accidentally leak it himself, I am sure he would of told the other Elantrins and we would of heard of it here.

 

For those reasons, I strongly suspect Zas as the leak and a Cultist.  This brings me to another point which I don’t believe we have discussed. We assume that people are harmless if they have Hoed.  What happens if Elantris is restored?  I haven’t read Elantris in a while, but wouldn’t the people with Hoed be restored?  

 

 

Ostrich

 

I couldn’t find a single instance of Ostrich posting in the forum even after we lynched not one but two lurkers.  I also saw another player (I think Wilson said this, but I am not sure) saying they have seen him active in PMs.

 

This is a problem and I honestly don’t think we will get Ostrich to post unless he is on the brink of being lynched.  Other players have pointed this out, but I figured I should point it out as well in the hope Ostrich will come participate.

 

 

Alvron

Alvron seemed suspicious to me from very early on for me for a couple reasons.  

His activity:

He has made posts, but virtually all of his posts have been of little help.  The only posts that really have an substance is his analysis of Pirates, Lovers, or the Gyorn/Odiv/Convert.  I have seen maybe one post where he is contributing to the search for Cultists.

 

 

31 May 2015 - 12:24 AM

I'm voting for Maill.  He has called out several players with little or nothing to base it on.  Some of his suspicions were twisted so that it fit what he was trying to say.  Overall I feel that he is trying to force suspicion onto others.

 

This post seems suspect to me because it really isn't helping the search for Cultists much.  He threw out a couple opinions on one person with very little analysis or supporting evidence.

 

I did collect all of his posts, but it seemed crazy to post all of those quotes here.

 

His voting record:

 

 

The first time he votes it is the first vote on Maillw which then turns into a bandwagon.  I don’t think we can blame him for the bandwagon on Maill, but maybe that needs analysis by someone who is better at analyzing then I am.

The second time he votes it is for Winter after Winter has already came out and said she was a Cultist.  Basically making his vote pointless.

 

That being said I don’t know if he is a Cultist.  He is simply near the top of my suspect list which is why I included him.

 

 

Bort

 

And lastly Bort…

 

During my reread he constantly jumped out at me.  The first place I will start at is when he voted for me in Day 2.

 

 

Posted 26 May 2015 - 04:20 AM

Oh, yeah... D'oh! Sorry Mckeedee, I didn't mean to blacken your good name. I do have to admit though, Lightsworn Panda does make a good point about Dowanx.

 

and then thirty-five minutes later posted this

 

 

Posted 26 May 2015 - 04:55 AM

Lightsworn Panda makes a good point about Dowanx. Didn't something like half a dozen people say they would like to play, but would be away this weekend, and so would not be about until Tuesday (today)? So, Dowanx can have my vote for the time being. This may be changed later, depending on if we get much new information.

 

Why the time delay there?  Why not simple say your concerns in a single post.  It almost seems like you posted then went and asked advice from a doc or something.  This would seem very off to me even if I wasn't the person he was voting for.

 

The next reason is I think he is the Cultist Prince.  His timezone and schedule matches up with the Cultist Prince.  The times the Cultist Prince did or didn’t use their powers match up with times Bort could of performed it.  The only time the Prince power wasn’t used was when Bort was in Elantrin and everyone in Elantrin had voted.

 

The next reason is how vocal he was about “protecting” the Duke/Duchess’s identity.  Nothing I have seen gives any proof that he actually knows the Duke/Duchess’s identity yet he is saying he is protecting it.  This seems to me like a Cultist move to try to build trust.

 

The next reason is his vote on Phatt.  Why would he vote on Phatt when Winter was voting there potentially turning Phatt into Hoed.  This doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.

 

Lastly, Winter’s analysis of Bort seems off.  

 

 

Winter: Posted 01 June 2015 - 11:43 AM

Borter Clams (Bort)

- Suspicious, maybe Cultist? I sort of agree with Wilson on this account, though it is possible that we're missing something. If Bort makes a good case for defense, a really good case, I'll probably not vote for him. I just feel like I'm missing something, something important.

 

Winter almost seems like she is defending Bort here.  Maybe I am wrong here, but when I reread Winter’s analysis, knowing Winter was a Cultist, it came across as something Winter might try to do to get suspicion off of Bort.

 

I think Bort is going to get scanned while in Elantris so this whole section might be a mute point.

 

 

Luckat

 

As I am finishing up this post I figured I should include Luckat.  She is suspicious to me, but I believe she is a potential Gyorn not Cultist.  If I get more time I will do a analysis post on her, but unfortunately I have ran out of time

 

 

With all of that said I am not sure who out of all of these I will vote for this cycle.  I would like to get other peoples opinions on what I have posted and then I will probably make a vote.

 

 

Edit - fixed some spacing.

Edited June 6, 2015 by dowanx

[little wilson]

Luckat

As I am finishing up this post I figured I should include Luckat. She is suspicious to me, but I believe she is a potential Gyorn not Cultist. If I get more time I will do a analysis post on her, but unfortunately I have ran out of time

Luckat cannot be the Gyorn. She's been converted, and the Gyorn doesn't show up on the convert list. The only Shu-Dereth role she could have is the Odiv.

[Kasimir]

Okay. Lots of information from Elantris, both from Ren (Meta conveyed his words to me), and from Meta. I'm going to pass on what Ren said first, because that is less substantial and pertains directly to what is going on.

1. The Night Two Leak

This is where Kipper seems to be misunderstanding the conversation. It's about the leak that led to Phat being attacked on Night Two, not Phat's death last cycle.

We had two potential leaks remaining: Wonko or Zas. Ren's gotten back to us. There are two cycles on which Wonko/Sart contacted Elantris: Night 1, and on Day 3. Both of them do not fall within the critical period of Phat's reveal, which happened sometime between Day 2 and Night 2. As the attack took place on the same night, this leaves us with Zas. At this point in time, given that Zas is Hoed, I do not advise lynching Zas. I am given to understand Meta and Ren have something planned.

2. Wilson's Question

Wilson, you asked Ren about what he said to Winter. Ren claims that all he told Winter was that he lacked strong suspicions, rather than that Elantris was clean. And that was for pretty obvious reasons--Night 1, hello?

3. Quiet People

Ren and Meta would like to remind all that they can only count SIX people who are consistently active at the moment, and not Elantrians. Better hope the Shaod doesn't come or the thread will just die at this rate. That number is frankly ridiculously small. Talk more, people! Am glad to have woken up to more discussion.

Ren's identified a list of players he considers too quiet: Jain, Mek, Clanky, Alv, Dow, Araris, Hufflepuff, Emerald, Claincy, Ostrich, Karlin, Twei, Sart, Luckat. Right now, his primary suspicion is Ostrich (Meta disagrees there), but reminds everyone not to forget about Sart.

4. Bort

It's been almost two cycles since I sent him to Elantris. The major question is if he's going to come out tonight or the next Day. Hreo, could we please get some clarification on that? Meta notes that Bort is his top suspect, and Bort's illicit post in the thread has raised his hackles as it seems Bort is attempting to delay communications with the surviving Priest. In addition, Bort has been silent in Elantris--at least, according to Meta, since Meta was added to that PM. So at this point, Meta plans to scan Bort tonight. But if we can't come up with a better lynch target despite discussion, he notes he won't have any raging objections if we decide to just lynch Bort and have done with.

5. Messages to Specific People

Seonid, Meta wants to talk to you ASAP. Like, he even bolded and underlined the thing, so I'd figure it's pretty urgent, yeah?

Sart, Meta is wondering why you didn't follow up after your conversation last night.

6. Clever Cultists

Meta would like to remind the thread that the Cultists are plenty clever, thank you very much, and they didn't really need Wyrm to start being clever. Consider that few enough people outside those already cleared (of being Cultists) by Meta who defended Winter, thereby giving us scant connections to draw. Add the death of Orlok, which is still a major question mark--Meta's best guess at this point is they just wanted to confuse us. The point of which is: first, don't underestimate the Cultists, and second, it doesn't take Wyrm, they were already in the right direction to start with. (Sorry, Wyrm-cyning )

As a further addendum to this: while Meta doesn't yet trust Araris, he agrees with the latter's point about Winter silencing discussion by surrendering herself and thereby preventing her comrades from being discovered. He is especially suspicious of Hufflepuff because Winter didn't say much about him when listing her views on each of the players.
 
7. Meta's Suspicions
 
Meta's current suspicions are as follows: the M'Hael, Clanky and Hufflepuff, but he suspects Jain as a potential Gyorn. All the same, he adds that this is more a gut feeling because of how defensive Jain has been.
 
This concludes the morning report from Elantris Live. We wish you good health, and may the Shaod never take you!

[Sart]

Sart, Meta is wondering why you didn't follow up after your conversation last night.

I didn't realize Meta couldn't be corrupted, so I wasn't trusting him 100%. I re-read the rules, so I'm going to follow up at the end of the day.

[dowanx]

 

 

Luckat cannot be the Gyorn. She's been converted, and the Gyorn doesn't show up on the convert list. The only Shu-Dereth role she could have is the Odiv. 

 

Aww good point Wilson.  I am not sure how that slipped my mind.  

 

On a good note that means we don't have to worry about a Luckat/Wilson Gyorn/Odiv combo!

[Seonid]

Meta, if you're reading this, I'm going to be in contact with you tonight. Do you prefer your Seon or mine?

[Haelbarde]

First off, thank you for calling me out Wrym - I'll be first to admit (and in fact was) that I've been playing poorly this game. As bad as it makes me feel that I'm flying at the level that eliminators might like to be, I've not managed to change that, which annoys me. You're quite right - I've posted nothing of substance for the last half of the game (only thing I did was call out Mckeedee at one point), even though I've been saying for just as long that I've been planing to post suspicions. But the last two big posts from you and Wilson, along with you calling me out sparked off some thoughts, so I'll post my suspicions now.

 

Forewarning - the people I have under 'People I Trust' (EDIT - left this sentence hanging) I don't necessarily trust completely, as you'll see.

 

---

 

People I Trust

Wonko

I would say I trust Wonko. The intel he posted in thread was accurate when he was around, and Wilson seems to trust him based on her interactions with him via PM. If it's relevant, he PM'd me at the end of Day 2 (if you remember, he had not used his Seon with only an hour or so to go in the Day, and I happened to be online at the time). I decided to tell him my role/alignment and told him that I had had a Vial of Poison, but that I had just passed it on to Kas. In return for my openness, he told me who he contacted on Day 1 and Night 1. Regarding that, do people remember if he told everyone who he'd contacted so far? I can post who, if people think that's a good idea.

 

Kas

More just a gut feeling - what he had to say made sense. He's been confirmed by Meta which helps. Claims to be the Dula, which is definitely possible, but I'll actually check that this cycle (so Kasimir, for the purposes of testing Dulaness - got distracted by the Winter bandwagon and the poetry last time).

 

Wilson

I had decided that I trusted her earlier in the game, but she got confirmed by Phattemer, who we now know for certain was a priest. So we at least know that she's not the Gyorn. Phattemer also cleared Renegade and Neo, so I guess I trust them too.

 

Meta

So he's claimed priest, and accused Winter, who turned out to be a Jeskeri. We obviously haven't confirmed he's a priest. I feel like he probably is, but I do have a voice in my head telling me to not trust him entirely. More on that later. He says he's confirmed Kas, and Twei (which I just want to check: Twei = TwelthRootOfTwo?). As I mostly trust Kas, that helps make me agree that Meta could be legit. I've not got anything on Twei though, but I trust Twei irrespective of whether or not I trust Meta. More on that later.

 

 So list of people that I trust (mostly) in descending order of trust: Wilson, Renegade, Neo, Twei, Wonko, Kas, Meta

 

People I Don't Trust

Bort

Main reason comes from the fact he voted for Phattemer last vote. The prevailing view on Phattemer had been he was a legit priest. While obviously we don't know the whole story, I don't see a villager voting for someone who's got a high likelihood of being a priest.

 

Alvron

He's not posted very much, though usually once a cycle. He's also not said a whole lot when he has posted, primarily being thoughts about the Gyorn. It wouldn't surprise me if Alvron was Gyorn, a pirate, or a lover with someone of a different faction.

 

Clanky

Again, he's been relatively active, but not posted anything much of substance. He's called out a few people and given some suspicions. Where he to be an Cultist, I think his posts would be quite useful in indentifying people he was hoping to cast suspicion on. He's also one of the only people to call me out of as being suspicious up till now. It's mostly gut feeling which throws him on my 'Don't Trust' list as opposed to my 'Not Sure' list. It is possible the events of QF7 are flavoring my views.

 

People I'm Not Sure Of

Mckeedee

Not been super active, but his response to my calling him out has satisfied me for the time being.

 

{I will get back to this later. Want to get onto the scenario I thought up, and the not sure's are as relevant necessarily. I do plan to finish writing stuff up though. Please call me out on it if I don't.}

 

---

 

Now, I know I did say earlier that I mostly think Meta is telling the truth, but what I found in QF7 is that while The Only Joe didn't seem to being anything wrong, I came up with a compelling plan which an eliminator in Joe's shoes could pull off. I was suspicious of Joe primarily due to him having opportunity to be really evil. I believe in the spectator doc, Wilson had a ton of analysis which would have pointed to him being Lawman a lot earlier, but I'm still learning the strategies people use in analysis. Point is, I'd sorta dismissed my suspicions regarding Meta because I couldn't dream up a compelling plan which he could be working towards. I've since had a few ideas, which I might just put here.

 

What was weird about the voting last cycle was Winter giving up. I had put my vote on Kas early, but when Meta picked up a few votes, even after he outed himself as a priest, I was close to shifting my vote to Meta over Winter. My impression is that others shared that sentiment - Meta was more suspicious at the time than Winter was. Had I been in Winter's shoes, I'd have worked to encourage the vote to go through with Meta. I'd have tried anyway. Because if you managed to succeed, you've managed to take out a Priest, which is awesome if you're an eliminator. Sure, everyone would then know that Winter is an eliminator and killed her next round, but she'd have lasted longer and  taken out a priest. But instead, she decides to preemptively seal her fate, drawing everyone's votes to her. Which begs the question, why? To my mind, at least, I think 'What if she was covering for Meta?' If I were an eliminator, and the circumstances allowed me to successfully shift any suspicion off a fellow, but more experienced, eliminator, would I? Definitely. I would view Meta as a way more valuable member of the team than myself, and the particular circumstances have the added benefit of portraying Meta as a priest. 

 

Of course, the next question is then, 'Why would Meta even single out Winter in the first place, if they were both Eliminators'. It would mean that this would have to be a choreographed before hand, and it's a ploy (though a dangerous one) to encourage a 'Follow the cop' situation, where the 'cop' is an eliminator. Is this the type of thing Meta would do? Dunno. You guys would know better than I.

 

But then, you say, 'Meta got poisoned by the Cultists to roleblock him.' Sure, if he was a priest, that would be the logical thing to do if you were eliminators. And in some ways, it supports the motion that Meta is indeed a priest. Or it could be the next part of a Cultist plan to place Meta squarely in center of the Citizen team. So what happens when an cultist pretends to be a priest? Well now they have to 'scan' people, and while they might be able to keep the charade up for awhile, it's not going to work forever. They would know who the eliminators are, and they verify their 'scan' by throwing one of their members under the bus - which if that member wanted to stop playing the game, would be a nice way of leaving the game. They had to have 'scanned' other players by this point as well, and then they're given the choice - do they pick a fellow eliminator, or two players definitely citizens?

 

In QF7, Joe chose two villagers, presumably thinking something along the lines of 'these two people likely trust each other to be villagers, so if I say I trust them, and they trust each other, then they'll probably trust me.' In this game we have Meta saying he trusts Twei and Kas. Gut feeling in this situation would be that Kas could be a fellow eliminator (got some more thoughts for another time - I'll wait and see if we can verify Kas as Dula or not), but I think I'd trust Twei in this situation. Dunno. Anyway, moving on.

 

Back to the whole scanning problem. Sure, the eliminator knows who's good and who's not, but they don't know roles (unless people have unsafe Seon practices, or I guess publicly reveal their role). So you know what would suit you just fine? Sticking your evil!priest somewhere where they can justifiably not use their 'ability' very well for two cycles. It's also convenient from the standpoint that it makes it look like the eliminators believe he is a priest. In the 'Kas' isn't trustworthy scenario, it's interesting that he's Meta's spokesman for this turn.

 

GM Question: When do scans happen in relation to poison - would a scan fail if they were poisoned the same cycle, or would it go through before getting sent to Elantris?

 

Because if it's the latter, then it's suspicious we've not heard about the results of Meta's scan. 

 

---

So, there's that. Probably not the worded the clearest, and possibly a bit far fetched/unlikely/stupid. But they are my thoughts.

 

It's a bit cheap posting it now, when Meta can't really respond directly, so I feel a little bad about that. Also immense apologies if this, for some reason, causes our last remaining priest to get lynched. 

 

EDIT: Great... I miss all the posts while writing this out....

Edited June 6, 2015 by Haelbarde

[Kasimir]

Meta, if you're reading this, I'm going to be in contact with you tonight. Do you prefer your Seon or mine?

Meta says he prefers you use your Seon.

M'Hael, as a member of House Urbain (the paranoid), I can understand your insistence on testing my Dula-ness out, but this is frankly ridiculous. Jain. Kasimir. If the Eliminators have a Keeper (although I think this is unlikely), it's a cheap way to mess with my Dula abilities by putting a secret vote on me to make it appear as though the vote never disappeared. No, thank you. We're going to do it right, with an extra vote on me to make sure this can't happen.

[Seonid]

Meta says he prefers you use your Seon.

 

His wish is my command

[Kipper]

@Kasimir

I get it now! Yay me! I think Zas is the likely culprit, as I doubt a Cultist would have been so eager to reveal in thread about Phatt.

@Haelbarde

I can maybe see Meta and Kasimir doing that (and they would be clever at it, if it is indeed the case), but it seems a bit TOO deep for me. The sheer amount of plotting and manipulating opinions that would go into that would be just incredible. And even the best laid plans would fall apart. The death toll for the Eliminators would be...catastrophic. Plus I don't see Winter voluntarily sacrificing herself.

[Alvron]

Alvron

Alvron seemed suspicious to me from very early on for me for a couple reasons.  

His activity:

He has made posts, but virtually all of his posts have been of little help.  The only posts that really have an substance is his analysis of Pirates, Lovers, or the Gyorn/Odiv/Convert.  I have seen maybe one post where he is contributing to the search for Cultists.

 

This post seems suspect to me because it really isn't helping the search for Cultists much.  He threw out a couple opinions on one person with very little analysis or supporting evidence.

 

I did collect all of his posts, but it seemed crazy to post all of those quotes here.

 

His voting record:

The first time he votes it is the first vote on Maillw which then turns into a bandwagon.  I don’t think we can blame him for the bandwagon on Maill, but maybe that needs analysis by someone who is better at analyzing then I am.

The second time he votes it is for Winter after Winter has already came out and said she was a Cultist.  Basically making his vote pointless.

 

That being said I don’t know if he is a Cultist.  He is simply near the top of my suspect list which is why I included him.

It's true, my posts haven't been very helpful in finding Cultists.  I have a horrible track record of not being able to find them.  In all the 20+ games I've played I think I have only once identified an eliminator.  And that was only because I had information that no one else had and I kept it to myself until it was of use.  Others are far better suited at finding Cultists than I so I'm not really going for them.  Instead I'm looking for the Gyorn.  So far they have done almost exactly what I thought they would do.  Convert Elantrians first as they can't speak in thread then when that's exposed start converting the high threat players so they have as large a group as possible to make finding the Odiv difficult.  I am far better at predicting actions than I am at analyzing posts.  Unfortunately no one has contacted me yet so my information on what roles the Cultists may have is limited.  At the moment the best I have is that Winter was dead set against the Cultists having a Debtor role so it makes me think they do have one.  Even them having a Vote Manipulation role isn't as certain as some seem to be claiming.  Although it does make sense that they would have one if they do have a Debtor as well as it would slightly offset the imbalance.  None of which helps in finding who they are, unless of course everyone wants to reveal their roles.

 

As for my votes.  I was 100% convinced that Maill was a Cultist which was why I voted for him.  Winter on the other hand I thought was 80% clean.  If Meta hadn't revealed himself then I likely would've voted for him if I voted at all.  The only reason I did vote was so that the Prince(ss) couldn't force me to vote for Phatt and make him Hoed.  When I vote I like to have a very good reason for doing so even if it ends up being wrong.

[Haelbarde]

@Haelbarde

I can maybe see Meta and Kasimir doing that (and they would be clever at it, if it is indeed the case), but it seems a bit TOO deep for me. The sheer amount of plotting and manipulating opinions that would go into that would be just incredible. And even the best laid plans would fall apart. The death toll for the Eliminators would be...catastrophic. Plus I don't see Winter voluntarily sacrificing herself.

Kas would be slightly secondary to it, than an integral part. Also, I wouldn't expect that you'd have both Meta and Kas on the eliminator team - if you did, I'd then expect 2-3 newer players to fill it out, rather than mid level characters. Re: Winter -yeah not sure. I feel like if I were in her position, I'd be willing to offer myself up if it placed an experienced eliminator in the center of all the information traffic. It just struck me as odd she'd reveal herself to be a Cultist when my impression of the mood was that more people were distrustful of Meta and willing to defend Winter.

[Kasimir]

Quick amendment in: there was a slight miscommunication between myself, Meta and Ren. (See: Chinese Whispers.) Ren had bolded Ostrich's name in the list that Meta sent on to me, and Meta had interpreted it as Ren being especially suspicious of Ostrich. Ren is not. He indicated Ostrich as he is very much against how egregiously inactive Ostrich has been in this game.

I'm a little unsure of how the M'Hael's plan is supposed to work, though. There are some inconsistencies, I notice.

First:

 

...it's a ploy (though a dangerous one) to encourage a 'Follow the cop' situation...

Got it. Meta is diabolically using reverse-psychology. This explains why he has, in fact, explicitly asked people to avoid Following the Cop. Naturally, he believes this will be an immensely successful strategy in a game where people have repeatedly cautioned against relying simply on the Priests and failing to discuss. Indeed, Meta is a cunning man.

Second:

In QF7, Joe chose two villagers, presumably thinking something along the lines of 'these two people likely trust each other to be villagers, so if I say I trust them, and they trust each other, then they'll probably trust me.' In this game we have Meta saying he trusts Twei and Kas. Gut feeling in this situation would be that Kas could be a fellow eliminator (got some more thoughts for another time - I'll wait and see if we can verify Kas as Dula or not), but I think I'd trust Twei in this situation.

So, my question is: which way? You can't have it both ways. If you think this is a QF7 ploy, then Twei and I are both villagers. If this isn't, then that seems to erode the basis of plausibility on which you have constructed this possibility--through appeal to prior cases, as this can no longer be a legitimate prior. Furthermore, this raises another question: on what basis do you trust Twei?

In fact, how many Eliminators do you figure there are? 6 at the very most, I'd say, and that's if we go with the usual ratio. I'd rather go with 4 or 5. So say you say that Meta and I are both Eliminators. Not only have we sacrificed Winter, we've put 2 extra people on the line. I leave it to you to decide if we are strong players. I would rate Meta highly but not myself. At one blow, we'd lose half our team, if not more. What is Meta gaining from this? Yes, it has happened before. What do we gain? A gamble is pointless if you do not gain something concrete. Is Meta guiding mislynches now? It is highly unlikely, I submit, that another high-calibre player is on this putative Eliminator team. So, we're throwing away our strongest player? Isn't that needless? Gaining a pinch-hitter for Winter would have been no bad trade, especially if that introduced Wyrm or Sart to the team! And clearing people does not work as well in a game with a conversion faction! Having cleared me is no guarantee in this game. I know that. Anyone who has been paying attention to the rules knows that. Just look at what the Gyorn cleverly did: they struck Wilson, knowing that anyone confirmed by Meta who was converted could still be an Odiv. They're cleared of being a Cultist but not of being an Odiv. For that reason, it is still difficult to trust them!

So you know what would suit you just fine? Sticking your evil!priest somewhere where they can justifiably not use their 'ability' very well for two cycles.

There is only one safe role in this game and that is the Priest. Anyone can become an Odiv if they get converted. Just because there is no second conversion does not mean there is no Odiv. I'll say it until I'm blue in the face and no one will listen to me. People still do foolhardy, reckless things like roleclaiming in Seon PMs or trying to reveal their roles to scanned people. Do you want Meta to reveal the roles of the scanned in the thread? Would you prefer to hand over information to both the Gyorn and the Cultists, then?

Almost no one in here has been reckless about role reveals! Wilson only countenanced it in the case of the vote manipulations because we suspect the Prince/Princess is a Cultist! I strongly condemn what Maili did and I consider it both criminally irresponsible and a breach of trust. My stance on role reveals has always been this: even if you are a Citizen, telling people you are a Citizen allows Eliminators to rule out one person who could've been a Priest or Jindo. Mass role reveals do not help us. Only reveal roles if it's information you don't mind people cutting out your guts with.

Last:

Re: Winter -yeah not sure. I feel like if I were in her position, I'd be willing to offer myself up if it placed an experienced eliminator in the center of all the information traffic. It just struck me as odd she'd reveal herself to be a Cultist when my impression of the mood was that more people were distrustful of Meta and willing to defend Winter.

You tell me what there was to fight. Meta had volunteered to go to the slaughter the next day if Winter was innocent. Nothing in this game can stop a lynch. What would the Eliminators do, turn out in full force to save Meta then, handing themselves over to us? How was Winter going to defend herself against a claimed scan? There was absolutely no way. It was her word against Meta's, and quite frankly, Meta's not the sort of player you lynch just to see if he's telling the truth about Winter. She knew that. Anyone would know that. The writing was on the wall. And clearly, you haven't really been listening to what Araris noted about how Winter therefore effectively shut down discussion and any opportunity for her comrades to inadvertently reveal themselves in discussion. If they even had been doing so in the first place. I advise you to refer to LG3 or LG7 if you want to see how Seeker reveals have typically panned out. It is never good strategy to lynch the Seeker claimant, period. And in this sort of game, had Meta lied, he would have no escape. Granted, this doesn't deflect the possibility Meta and Winter were both Eliminators. But you suggest your argument is motivated by the fact it is strange Winter went quietly to the lynch. I am pointing out it isn't strange; it was just the only move left in a series of pretty bad options.

As a quick summation: M'Hael's arguments are fundamentally based on two factors: first, plausibility. For this, he appeals to precedent in QF7 to suggest that Meta is pulling a Beetle (for those who don't follow, the type of gambit M'Hael is talking about happened in LG1. The name of the player who pulled that off was Bartbug/Beetle.) Second, he appeals to the need for an explanation: he identifies Winter's going gently into that good night as a strange discrepancy crying out for explanation.

I've disagreed with him on several grounds. I've challenged the idea that QF7 maps on as well to this game as he would like to suggest it does: I've argued that if it does, then he faces inconsistencies with the scenario he's suggesting. Consequently, it seems QF7 does not map over very well. Second, I've challenged the plausibility of the gambit he's suggested, pointing out there are many reasons suggesting against it. Third, I've challenged the very motivation he offers for accepting the scenario he's sketched out, by pointing out that there is nothing at all unusual about Winter's behaviour or that particularly requires explanation. I want to further note that it is not enough for M'Hael to suggest possibility--he requires the stronger claim of plausibility. And even that is insufficient, since there are many possible and plausible scenarios that are mutually exclusive (i.e. only one of them can be true of this game.) For this, he then also needs the evidence he offered: Winter's strange behaviour.

For this reason, I believe his arguments are generally weak and I have shown that they fall.

 

I watch the curtain of night descend in silence.

Even the harsh cry of the owl fades to silence.

I open my mouth, but these words catch on my tongue

And how should I presume to disturb this silence?

Because I couldn’t take that one step towards you

I’m left writing these verses in lonely silence.

Last night, I heard the rumble of distant thunder

On the horizon. A heartbeat later: silence.

How shall we regard these better left unspoken?

Where words fail, we must pass them over in silence.

See the iridiscent flash of the paired sunbirds!

They dance; bright feathers falling in the dawn silence.

O Kasimir, if you do not seize the moment,

It will soon dissolve, into regretful silence.

 

Edit: Note: This is not to say that the M'Hael cannot be correct. That would require me to have Hreo-level knowledge of the game. But the point I am making is not about the M'Hael. It is about his argument, and it is that his argument cannot take him to the conclusion he wants to reach. And therefore I remain unconvinced by them.

Edited June 6, 2015 by Kasimir

[Haelbarde]

Oh, I'm definitely not trying to assert that what I've suggested is really happening. And I was full aware that it wasn't even necessarily likely. I felt I needed to post something, and this is what I've had churning over in my head. I felt it better to put it out there this game, rather than sit on it till it was too late.

 

I must also say, what I posted was a bit of a mess, with little proof reading. I will clarify that when I've suggested you could be an eliminator, that's been more of an afterthought, an even more idle fancy on something which is unlikely. So regarding Meta were to choose an eliminator, as I've thought about it, I afterwards changed my mind to Twei, and then to neither. Really having both of you actually legit makes more sense, ultimately. And fits better with how you've acted. So feel free to disregard any references to yourself - the focus was meant to be on Meta.

 

Re: follow the cop. Sure, you can caution about it. But are we going to ignore a priest? I wouldn't have thought so. And provided you don't slip up, maybe you could make use of the position as an eliminator. If people trust you, you're more likely to get information. And no, I don't think it's a good idea for Meta to reveal peoples roles publicly, but were he to PM someone who he'd previously scanned, he could verify the specifics of a role and they could verify Meta, potentially.

 

With what do they gain? Well, nothing straight away. But I would have thought an eliminator seemingly having what is basically a verified safe role would provide a layer of protection, and at the end game, when it matters, affect the game.

 

I've tried to avoid discussing the Odiv/Gyorn as I don't want to give them suggestions. But yes, converts who have been previously verified can't be entirely trusted. Only post Odiv scans can be. Not that I thought I really discussed them in my post, but anyway.

 

Re: Winter.

 

The votes that cycle went something like - I voted you, Meta voted Winter, someone else might have voted Winter, but then you, Wilson, Seonid and someone else all vote Meta. Meta claimed to be a priest. Maybe it's just because I'm new, and not used to these things, but I guess I felt role claiming the most useful villager role under duress felt off. I personally was going to shift my vote to Meta when Winter threw in the towel. Maybe it should have been obvious it was over, but this is the second game I've played that I've been alive in for longer than about 24-36 hours, while you and winter have play three times the number of games I have. I didn't see it as a lost cause, and so I assumed that others might have agreed with that sentiment. 

 

---

I feel like I could have put together a case better, but it was not intended as undeniable proof of something. It was meant as my answer to the voice in my head which asks 'What if Meta was bad?' by seeing if there was a scenario in which the events could benefit the eliminators. And I felt there was a case for it, though a dangerous one in that it killed one of their number, and put one of them in an important, but precarious position. And I ask the question - say it was the case. Do people trust Meta? I would say, for the most part. 

 

And in comparison to my thoughts in QF7, where I really did not trust Joe, but felt my hands were tied, I would still probably go with Meta is most probably our second priest.

 

---

If anyone cares - you could also add that it's convenient that Phattemer got taken out before Meta arrived - means he wasn't able to scan Meta. Of course, that's also just the way things played out - they probably saved their poison to do something precisely like that - roleblock a priest.

 

I do also find it interesting that we still have basically all the top tier players in the game. I guess I expected we'd have lost a few by now.

 

---

 

EDIT: 

Vote Tally

Kas Notation

Clanky{1}: Kasimir<1>, Araris<2>

Wonko{0}: Wyrm<1>

Wyrm{0}: Wilson<1>

Jain{0}: Kasimir<2>

Haelbarde{2}: Wyrm<2>, Kipper

Luckat{2*}: Wilson*<2>

Honey Badger{0}: Araris<1>

Ostrich{1}: a smart guy

Kasimir{2}: Haelbarde, Kasimir<3>

 

Standard Notation

Haelbarde{2}: Wyrm, Kipper

Kasimir{2}: Haelbarde, Kasimir

Luckat{2*}: Wilson*

Ostrich{1}: a smart guy

Clanky{1}: Araris

 

And I'm thinking I'll then take my vote of Kasimir, again. I cannot decide whether or I should keep it there or not :/

 

So we'll go with the current tally is:

 

Standard Notation

Haelbarde{2}: Wyrm, Kipper

Luckat{2}: Wilson*

Kasimir{1}: Kasimir

Ostrich{1}: a smart guy

Clanky{1}: Araris

 

A tie between myself and Luckat.

Edited June 6, 2015 by Haelbarde

[Wyrmhero]

I disagree that Meta would throw a fellow Eliminator under the bus just to win. It wasn't necessary, as neither of them were under massive suspicion, and even if they were, I don't think Meta is the sort of person to value winning over the fun of the players. Could he be? Well, I guess he could, but all signs point to no, in my opinion.

 

I'm still suspicious of Haelbarde. I mean, now I am looking at him, he suddenly posts a lot in a short period of time. It's a little unfortunate, but changing playstyles like that on a dime looks rather strange to me. I am also not sure who else I am suspicious of at the moment, though I understand where Wilson's coming from when it comes to luckat. The issue is, as Kas said, we have about six or so players talking a lot, and that's not enough.

 

Of the people currently up to dance the hemp fandango, I am mostly suspicious of Haelbarde, ostrich and luckat. We don't want a tie in this vote, but I'm not sure who I would vote for anyway. I think that, as a show of good faith for Haelbarde's long posts, I'm going to move my vote from him.

 

I am however a bit edgy when it comes to Alvron, at the moment. He has seemed to turn up after being called out a bit. You say you were Gyorn-hunting, so what suspicions have you for that?

[Haelbarde]

I disagree that Meta would throw a fellow Eliminator under the bus just to win. It wasn't necessary, as neither of them were under massive suspicion, and even if they were, I don't think Meta is the sort of person to value winning over the fun of the players. Could he be? Well, I guess he could, but all signs point to no, in my opinion.

 

I'm still suspicious of Haelbarde. I mean, now I am looking at him, he suddenly posts a lot in a short period of time. It's a little unfortunate, but changing playstyles like that on a dime looks rather strange to me. I am also not sure who else I am suspicious of at the moment, though I understand where Wilson's coming from when it comes to luckat. The issue is, as Kas said, we have about six or so players talking a lot, and that's not enough.

 

Of the people currently up to dance the hemp fandango, I am mostly suspicious of Haelbarde, ostrich and luckat. We don't want a tie in this vote, but I'm not sure who I would vote for anyway. I think that, as a show of good faith for Haelbarde's long posts, I'm going to move my vote from him.

 

I am however a bit edgy when it comes to Alvron, at the moment. He has seemed to turn up after being called out a bit. You say you were Gyorn-hunting, so what suspicions have you for that?

Like I said, I not convince myself. I just felt he had opportunity to do that, but wasn't sure if it was likely. A few of you have now said that's not the sort of thing he'd do, and so I'm fine with that. I just wanted to put it out there. I prefer to talk more, like the last few posts (see QF7), but I've found it harder to get in to this game. (Also, I did get killed round 2 in MR6 Didn't want to talk too much at the start in case we got a repeat). I'll clarify my previous comments about uni though - my course work was done as of Thursday, and I have 2 exams in 3-4 weeks. So I should have time enough for the rest of this game. Last week was a bit busy with getting stuff handed in.

 

I'll try and get comments of the rest of the players up before I go to bed this evening (I'm living in Australia, if that's relevant).