Quick Fix 64: Spies in Starsight

[Kasimir he/him]

K someone mentioned the Devo point, IDK who.

The thing is, I do wonder - Devo clearly suppressed her four animal signature in a doc but it just takes one slip for people to be able to grok she's IC. Or maybe they were going off something else, e.g. Devo's relatively low thread presence/discussion driving this game despite being Village. IDK.

My current hypothesis at least is that the kill patterns we are seeing are sniping.

TUN

Edited to add:

Bringing this forward for my own reference:

17 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Xino and Nerdy don't make much sense as e/e since there's little reason for Xino to bus Nerdy instead of Silver or trying to save them both by voting for you starting a new train. Putting three elims in a 2-2-2 tie and then having Nerdy show up, keep their vote on a teammate, and then none of them ever show up again is bizarre.

I do note that Nerdy clearly wasn't concerned about signing off for the cycle when they had three votes and made no attempt at self-preservation by switching from Xino to Silver. That reads closer to just e!Nerdy than paired with Xino. So either could be evil but the pairing is less likely. Fifth is a more likely partner for e!Nerdy. C2 EoD still looks more like whatever elims were around were okay with Nerdy dying though.

I'll vote for Xino but wouldn't mind if the other two died. Everyone else can figure it out.

Edited to add 2:

@Matrim's Dice:

Sorry, to clarify what I mean:

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Sometimes you do anyway but the problem when you do as an Elim is that it's easy to accidentally nudge people into V!reading you out of the flash of emotion.

It's easy but it feels like a very ugly way to win. It's one thing about people reading you as being a frustrated Villager - that level's ok. But being too free or uncareful in the thread can lead to other clears that are uglier. And my view is that as an Elim, one is usually much more careful to avoid that, and has an easier time doing so, because Elim doc right there.

And if anyone takes this to mean:

"The fastest way to stop Kas getting mad is to hardlock him Elim" you are cruel beyond measure :sob:

Edited December 21, 2022 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

34 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What's your view on C2's EoD? For me that's what's stopping this exe for making sense to me. If e!xino only works with e!me then voting xino is a waste of my time and right now I don't see why killing Silver's countertrain is the best course of action here.

Also, adding onto the C2 EoD question-- in that scenario and considering that turn, who are Nerdy's teammate(s)?

I've been doing some thinking in my GM PM .................................. I want to skip to the Aftermath of this game tbh tbh

You can have this:

8 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

V!xino world: <Silver, Nerdy, Almond, TUN/Hael?>

I was kinda hoping xino would die to the filter today. No hard feelings xino but like...yeah

TUN I really just don't understand, but they could be the 'active' elim I guess even though they haven't really been that active at all

22 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

LG91 D1 E!Stick says hi

That was different  

20 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Weren't we already running under the four player assumption. It's the result of the square root rule or the 1/4 rule of thumb anyway. Sure we don't use that as often and prefer between 20-25% but eh.

I think this game design does favour the elims so I'd hypothesised three elims, for balance.

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

the kill patterns we are seeing are sniping

Don't you have to be paying close attention to the game to be able to do that,,,,,,,,,,,,,

I didn't think about the four animals thing, that is so sad for Devo.

21 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

TUN

He made the conscious choice to let Silver die despite many of us prodding him to vote anywhere at all?

[Amanuensis he/him]

I am lost boy.

Regarding TUN:

Spoiler

 

This is C2 when I began to prod at TUN. Nerdy was in the lead with 3 votes, Silver and Xino both had 2.

Shortly after, I give Silver a third vote, tying them again with Nerdy. This reminds me how I'm certain one of Xino and Nerdy is E.

TUN explains to me they don't vote unless they're confident.

Hael challenges TUN's reluctance.

I prod TUN for reads.

TUN replies to Hael but doesn't to me.

30 minutes later, I prod TUN again, having expected him to edit my post in, given I'd ninja'd him

And TUN doesn't return until Silver was in the lead with 5 votes (though Fifth would soon shift off after). Also he doesn't even repond to my original post, just tells me why he missed it. The audacity!

The only interest he shows in vote discussion is not voting him.

And TUN just ends on a joke vote. He's so disinterested in anything going on for the whole duration of C2 EoD that I don't think I can believe he's E.

 

Idk that's my take

Edited December 21, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

Don't you have to be paying close attention to the game to be able to do that,,,,,,,,,,,,,

I feel like you can do that incognito, or not signed in.

Just now, _Stick_ said:

He made the conscious choice to let Silver die despite many of us prodding him to vote anywhere at all?

He'd committed not to voting, though. I'm minded of how E!you feels you can't break out of your commitments, to the point of making that Bookwyrm vote. And And my other thought is:

Look. Suppose the thought isn't a snipe.

Suppose the kill thought is: we're all barking up the wrong tree.

Where have we been looking?

Aman, Fifth, Mat, Xino, Nerdy.

I still V!read you, I still V!read Hael.

The logical answer to me is to apply pressure anywhere not within those five and see what shakes out.

[Mat he/him]

23 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

The problem with low actives Elim teams IMO is that there's little to go on, we self-cannibalise trying to find their partners, and shots on them can feel like shots in the dark.

This is... yeah. This is definitely the problem :P.

TUN feels like a middle enough ground to me. I feel bad voting Aman 'just in case' which is kind of what that was. If people wanted his flip I wouldn't be opposed to it by any means but I'm done sticking to my ground when it's clear right now that's an unhelpful place to be.

And I agree that the elims probably are just sniping IC candidates.

...Tbh I would be fine with a Stick kill too >>

@Amanuensis what's your idea of a team now that Fifth flipped village? 

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I am lost boy.

Regarding TUN:

  Hide contents

 

This is C2 when I began to prod at TUN. Nerdy was in the lead with 3 votes, Silver and Xino both had 2.

Shortly after, I give Silver a third vote, tying them again with Nerdy. This reminds me how I'm certain one of Xino and Nerdy is E.

TUN explains to me they don't vote unless they're confident.

Hael challenges TUN's reluctance.

I prod TUN for reads.

TUN replies to Hael but doesn't to me.

30 minutes later, I prod TUN again, having expected him to edit my post in, given I'd ninja'd him

And TUN doesn't return until Silver was in the lead with 5 votes (though Fifth would soon shift off after). Also he doesn't even repond to my original post, just tells me why he missed it. The audacity!

The only interest he shows in vote discussion is not voting him.

And TUN just ends on a joke vote. He's so disinterested in anything going on for the whole duration of C2 EoD that I don't think I can believe he's E.

 

Idk that's my take

I don't disagree with this - I'm just wary of apathy clears after Dingo I guess. And it couples with my thoughts that if I stick to my current V!reads, and the possibility we are barking up the wrong tree, then I'm sort of just D1ing where we haven't yet gone to try to see what happens.

Sort of a function of where I'm more willing to revise immediately I think: I still struggle with Stick, sort of can see E!Hael but it doesn't really quite feel right to me.

It....does work better if I don't say it, yeah, but oh well  

[Mat he/him]

Hmm would e!TUN clear Nerdy?

Because if EoD D2 was e/e, there's no reason e!TUN doesn't vote Nerdy or Silver. Either way one of his teammates dies, but this way he gets credit for ensuring the death of one of them. His abstinence from voting doesn't fit in that world.

This actually works the inverse too-- I think e!Nerdy effectively unclears Stick, Hael, and Kas. Because bussing in an e/e world isn't losing anything that wouldn't be already lost, but it's gaining credit. So maybe Nerdy should just be flipped to make sense of that.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Stick. she/her]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I feel like you can do that incognito, or not signed in.

What- Oh are you talking about the Devo animal army?

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hmm would e!TUN clear Nerdy?

Because if EoD D2 was e/e, there's no reason e!TUN doesn't vote Nerdy or Silver. Either way one of his teammates dies, but this way he gets credit for ensuring the death of one of them. His abstinence from voting doesn't fit in that world.

This actually works the inverse too-- I think e!Nerdy effectively unclears Stick, Hael, and Kas. Because bussing in an e/e world isn't losing anything that wouldn't be already lost, but it's gaining credit. So maybe Nerdy should just be flipped to make sense of that.

yea let's flip nerdy

[Amanuensis he/him]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Amanuensis what's your idea of a team now that Fifth flipped village? 

Honestly, I wouldn't ask me. I keep bumping my head against a world I'm not yet ready to consider.

Really, I still am wholly convinced in e!Xino. I posted yesterday that when he was in a 2-2-1 with him, Silver, and Nerdy, Xino put Nerdy up to two votes instead of putting Silver to three. You can argue Xino's vote was just a lazy OMGUS, but he never even bothered to challenge Nerdy from there. IMO I think he just didn't vote Silver because they're partnered, which is a huge flip because it probably tells us Nerdy is Village and a player who snap voted Fifth yesterday is probably an elim too. I don't see v!Xino being this detached by C4.

ED1T:

Just now, _Stick_ said:

What- Oh are you talking about the Devo animal army?

yea let's flip nerdy

Why do you prefer Nerdy to Xino?

Edited December 21, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Amanuensis he/him]

Since there's no point in a self-vote now, Xino.

[Stick. she/her]

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Honestly, I wouldn't ask me. I keep bumping my head against a world I'm not yet ready to consider.

Really, I still am wholly convinced in e!Xino. I posted yesterday that when he was in a 2-2-1 with him, Silver, and Nerdy, Xino put Nerdy up to two votes instead of putting Silver to three. You can argue Xino's vote was just a lazy OMGUS, but he never even bothered to challenge Nerdy from there. IMO I think he just didn't vote Silver because they're partnered, which is a huge flip because it probably tells us Nerdy is Village and a player who snap voted Fifth yesterday is probably an elim too. I don't see v!Xino being this detached by C4.

ED1T:

Why do you prefer Nerdy to Xino?

I mean sure we can flip xino and if it's red we can flip Bookwyrm and then we're done probably but xino's absence from last cycle is bugging me. I know, I know, Dingo and apathy clears but Dingo was there for self-pres always.

edit:

Quote

E!xino world: <Silver, xino, Bookwyrm> with an optional <Mat>

Edited December 21, 2022 by _Stick_

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

What- Oh are you talking about the Devo animal army?

Looking at the thread. It's an old trick, dunno how much it's done in new SE but Hael reminded me of it when he was talking about my MR.

Open SE in an incognito window so you can keep an eye on the thread without having to sign in. I think my point is that we are taking thread activity as a sign of attention to the game but it's possible to be a lower lying Elim than that.

#LG5Khas

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I mean sure we can flip xino and if it's red we can flip Bookwyrm and then we're done probably but xino's absence from last cycle is bugging me. I know, I know, Dingo and apathy clears but Dingo was there for self-pres always.

Idk. I kinda stan Nerdy tbh.

Compare their two posts today to Xino's one.

7 hours ago, NerdyAarakocra said:

Could you explain why you think that neither of them are elim? I kinda understand Bookwyrm, but not your dismissal of Xino.

6 hours ago, NerdyAarakocra said:

Bookwyrm = not very suspicious. I have a high V! read for him.
TUN = a little suspicious, but not very. Still a V! read, but a more moderate one.
I'm unsure of Almond.
 

Unlike the previous cycles, they don't just snap-vote someone. I'm kind of reading this as a new villager getting their feet under them. 

1 hour ago, xinoehp512 said:

Well I forgot about yesterday. Oops.

Nerdy will die today!

Meanwhile, Xino has a blatant careless filter dodge.

ED1T:

(2) TUN: Kas, Mat(t),
(2) Nerdy: Stick, Xino,
(1) Xino: Aman,

Edited December 21, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Honestly, I wouldn't ask me. I keep bumping my head against a world I'm not yet ready to consider.

This being the pool you mentioned?

I think that's the crossroads I'm at: do I double down on my V!reads of Stick, Mat, Hael and assume an AG2 set-up?

Or do I go back and start re-evaluating and maybe considering I'm wrong within the quiet pool?

Edited to add:

@Amanuensis - Not sure I'd final vote TUN but I usually don't final vote this early into the cycle. One point I would bring up is that V!TUN usually ramps up into the game. I'm seeing a lot of thread checking and a lot of silence, which I'm not necessarily comfortable with. The comparison I have in mind is QF62 or even MR57/LG89 which was something that pinged me about him in LG90.

The blunt way of putting it is that V!TUN shouldn't have this little presence or be this much of a negative space in my head, and I'm a bit wary I don't recall him existing when looking at my suspect pool.

The other counterpoint (which is fair) is that this kind of happened in LG91 as well so I need to recheck how active he got after I died as that's the point I stopped paying close attention to the thread.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Kasimir

[Amanuensis he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

This being the pool you mentioned?

I think that's the crossroads I'm at: do I double down on my V!reads of Stick, Mat, Hael and assume an AG2 set-up?

Or do I go back and start re-evaluating and maybe considering I'm wrong within the quiet pool?

Yup. I feel like we need to crack the Xino nut to figure out why there was so much activity C2. I guess Nerdy almost makes more sense because C3 was kinda dead with Xino up again, but who's on Nerdy's team? Do we think Nerdy killed JNV, Wizard, then Devo? Someone who knows the players well is making these kills.

ED1T:

Oh and what was the AG2 set-up, I'm not familiar @Kasimir

Edited December 21, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Do we think Nerdy killed JNV, Wizard, then Devo? Someone who knows the players well is making these kills.

Fair point.

I'd almost argue that's a point against E!Hael as the silent partner, in that world. I don't believe Hael is that much of a frequent player to make a note of it. He came back for MR61, but before that, he played LG83 and the AG. He was also really out of it in LG83.

I guess the only way I'd see Hael as the sniper is if (excluding JNV) they gave off some sort of some sort of tells in their posts but TBH I feel like chasing for IC signs is a waste of my time - I'd much rather backread the other posts.

Also, edited my TUN thoughts in previous post to add to what you said.

[Stick. she/her]

16 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Looking at the thread. It's an old trick, dunno how much it's done in new SE but Hael reminded me of it when he was talking about my MR.

Open SE in an incognito window so you can keep an eye on the thread without having to sign in. I think my point is that we are taking thread activity as a sign of attention to the game but it's possible to be a lower lying Elim than that.

#LG5Khas

Oh I see yes, this is a possibility with E!TUN or E!Bookwyrm I think -  my experience with e!xino suggests he doesn't do this but I'm unsure about the other two.

14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Idk. I kinda stan Nerdy tbh.

Compare their two posts today to Xino's one.

Unlike the previous cycles, they don't just snap-vote someone. I'm kind of reading this as a new villager getting their feet under them. 

Meanwhile, Xino has a blatant careless filter dodge.

ED1T:

(2) TUN: Kas, Mat(t),
(2) Nerdy: Stick, Xino,
(1) Xino: Aman,

tbh I did ask for a good/bad bucket but they pulled up with the 'unsure' on Almond

xino is just............I know from being teamed with them in LG91 that their activity in-thread reflects their activity in the doc so I don't think xino is being all inactive n cute here and going all out on the evil strategising in their doc. Which means someone is making these careful decisions.

 

edit:

I'll laugh if it turns out these kills aren't calculated at all but entirely random and that the elim team is all lower active players that have insane luck.

Edited December 21, 2022 by _Stick_

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

xino is just............I know from being teamed with them in LG91 that their activity in-thread reflects their activity in the doc so I don't think xino is being all inactive n cute here and going all out on the evil strategising in their doc. Which means someone is making these careful decisions.

Mhm. But if we accurately hit e!Xino now, we can go into C5 being able to narrow down suspects based on who voted Fifth and who voted Nerdy. I don't think we're easily going to find the mastermind by picking at each other before that, and it's not like Nerdy is making these careful decisions either.

It's post like these that make me worry about a Stick/Xino world xD

Edited December 21, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Kasimir he/him]

@Amanuensis BRO YOU PLAYED AG2 :sob:

Ok ok

Eight Smokers, one Smoker Evil, Hael the Seeker nicotine sniffer

Elim team was all new players except Lopen, Lopen was newish and I sort of want to say on two games, maybe. Either way he was not considered an Elim powerhouse at that point in time.

The Villagers kept on sniping at each other because at least one regular veteran had to be Evil amirite

Tbf Hellscythe wasn't being helpful either, but we'll leave that aside. The point is that we self-cannibalised in extreme ways and the new player team won.

But. I note that a major point against it is that Meta noted the distro was volatile and he had concerns it was a bad gamble before the self-cannibalisation began...I want to say D2? late D1?

Also I note when I say AG2 here I'm not specifically thinking it's all new players - I'm thinking in terms of the "at least one active thread player has to be Evil" assumption. So IDK, maybe LG73 is a better analogy (quiet team including Flyingbooks, Lotus, TUN, Devo, Connie, with Devo as the sole anchor but also Devo was not in loud thread mode that game.) But LG73 ended well for the Village so maybe that's why I remember the pain of AG2 self-cannibalisation more.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

32 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hmm would e!TUN clear Nerdy?

Because if EoD D2 was e/e, there's no reason e!TUN doesn't vote Nerdy or Silver. Either way one of his teammates dies, but this way he gets credit for ensuring the death of one of them. His abstinence from voting doesn't fit in that world.

This actually works the inverse too-- I think e!Nerdy effectively unclears Stick, Hael, and Kas. Because bussing in an e/e world isn't losing anything that wouldn't be already lost, but it's gaining credit. So maybe Nerdy should just be flipped to make sense of that.

So e!Nerdy confirms v!me? I feel like Nerdy should be v though, so willing to vote Xino unless our alignments are truly mutually exclusive.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

@Amanuensis BRO YOU PLAYED AG2 :sob:

Ok ok

Eight Smokers, one Smoker Evil, Hael the Seeker nicotine sniffer

Elim team was all new players except Lopen, Lopen was newish and I sort of want to say on two games, maybe. Either way he was not considered an Elim powerhouse at that point in time.

The Villagers kept on sniping at each other because at least one regular veteran had to be Evil amirite

Tbf Hellscythe wasn't being helpful either, but we'll leave that aside. The point is that we self-cannibalised in extreme ways and the new player team won.

But. I note that a major point against it is that Meta noted the distro was volatile and he had concerns it was a bad gamble before the self-cannibalisation began...I want to say D2? late D1?

Also I note when I say AG2 here I'm not specifically thinking it's all new players - I'm thinking in terms of the "at least one active thread player has to be Evil" assumption. So IDK, maybe LG73 is a better analogy (quiet team including Flyingbooks, Lotus, TUN, Devo, Connie, with Devo as the sole anchor but also Devo was not in loud thread mode that game.) But LG73 ended well for the Village so maybe that's why I remember the pain of AG2 self-cannibalisation more.

Much like Mat, I am so bad with remembering the letter/numbers xD I need context clues!

But thank you

So basically you think TUN is playing intentionally unattached from his team and letting us rip into each other while he gathers Wiznik's data like a gremlin and snipes the Inner Circle?

[Stick. she/her]

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Mhm. But if we accurately hit e!Xino now, we can go into C5 being able to narrow down suspects based on who voted Fifth and who voted Nerdy. I don't think we're easily going to find the mastermind by picking at each other before that, and it's not like Nerdy is making these careful decisions either.

It's post like these that make me worry about a Stick/Xino world xD

If xino flips village, what's the next move? Nerdy?

edit:

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Unknown said:

So e!Nerdy confirms v!me? I feel like Nerdy should be v though, so willing to vote Xino unless our alignments are truly mutually exclusive.

Why should Nerdy be village? 

Edited December 21, 2022 by _Stick_

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

So basically you think TUN is playing intentionally unattached from his team and letting us rip into each other while he gathers Wiznik's data like a gremlin and snipes the Inner Circle?

If I'm not willing to consider E!Hael or E!Stick at this stage, he's one player I'd consider sharp enough to make a snipe, functionally.

The problem as you point out is that if we are running with the snipe hypothesis, we need someone who knows JNV, Wiz, and Devo enough to make those calls. 2/3 accuracy isn't shabby. Agreed with Stick it'd be loltastic if it were random but I'm not sure that's what I'd work with right now.

My pool of players IMO who could have made that shot, ignoring credences, would be:

<Devo, Fifth, you, Xino, Stick, Hael, TUN, Mat, me>

Bookwyrm, I think, hasn't been around enough still.

Obviously:

Subtract Devo and Fifth, they're dead Village.

<you, Xino, Stick, Hael, TUN, Mat, me>

Subtract you.

<Xino, Stick, Hael, TUN, Mat, me>

If we are ignoring bus worlds for now, we subtract Stick, Hael, me.

N.B. I've italicised me because yes and no - I'd probably have a smooth time deanonymising IC, IDK about my accuracy if we look at the thread.

<Xino, TUN, Mat>

I read Mat V still.

<Xino, TUN>

?

That's what I'm left with, as options.

Edited to add:

4 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

If xino flips village, what's the next move? Nerdy?

edit:

Why should Nerdy be village? 

I like that you pick up on that but not on voting someone you think is Village to prove yourself Village  

Edited December 21, 2022 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I like that you pick up on that but not on voting someone you think is Village to prove yourself Village  

He did say he'd move to xino 

@The Bookwyrm have you made your decision yet?

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

If xino flips village, what's the next move? Nerdy?

The more I look back, I could see the possibility of me accidentally resolving Silver by overestimating a V/V crossvote as an E/V one. I suppose nothing that Nerdy has done is overtly village, though I've mentioned things I liked. I could maybe see the argument that e!Nerdy didn't want to vote too hastily this turn, given all the suspicion they've accumulated, but eh? I guess my thing is when I weigh Nerdy and Xino, it's a lot easier to believe in a v!Nerdy.

Really I think we need to get all the votes on Nerdy and votes on Xino throughout the game to see if anyone stands out.