Jo and the Bush

@CoderDrag0n8, are you aware you can self vote to heal?

I think, with 4 villagers and 3 eliminators (Not counting Bel who is dead and didn't vote), your analysis is just kind of weird. At least 1 of the people who voted to save Hoid has to be an eliminator. Starting with the idea that Hoid himself is an eliminator, which I still believe, CD was the first to vote to heal Hoid Slayer, I'm willing to bet the Eliminator team is Hoid Slayer, Royal Bee Mage, and Coder Dragon. RBM has been flighty, switching votes several times this game in weird ways if I remember correctly. I wish I could prove that STINK and I have a PM together, but there's not a way to do that to my knowledge. Do you mean Bel? Or are you actually talking about Doc12? I like how your analysis of being potentially saved by an Elim points to CD and Bee as the two most likely candidates, but you still vote to save CD. That definitely makes sense for V!Hoid to do. /Sarcasm I think you're village, but to answer your question, E!you would have done it to ask that exact question today, or because you got outvoted by your teammates at the last minute. How on Lumar is it an odd stance to want to kill somebody if I think they are an Elim??? I was going to push for an Execution on Hoid today. If Hoid is a villager, we would lose as soon as he dies regardless of if he died from his wound or today's execution. Letting him die from the wound just gives us an extra execution to go after his teammates. . . . Honestly no one tell him. It's funnier this way.

They will certainly attempt it, but some people have Roseite and Verdant pots, I hope.

Okay, that’s 5 votes for healing Hoidslayer. I wish I had listened to my worries and switched to him yesterday then, because apparently the majority of players want him alive. I hope to be able to sit down and do analysis soon, but, school is my priority, unless i manage to power through it. Apologies, I haven’t played with you in a while. That’s just how I remember you. currently, if two villagers die tonight, I do think we lose. But I don’t think that Hoid is a Villager. I think letting him live is a mistake. if the Elims kill one of us tonight, and hoid lives, then tomorrow it’s 3-4.

Stink did open a PM with me and proceed to not discuss the game at all in it. I don't think that's alignment indicative though. STINK, are you ready to Columbo yet? I do think RBM is likely to be Elim, if Hoid is. I'm not sure about CD anymore. I'm going to assume Araris is Village unless we somehow get to a dead!V!Hoid world and the game is still ongoing. I don't actually have any good analysis on you. I should analyze you. Except that I should actually do my HW. Wait, so, oh! So Previously there would have been 72 hours to heal a wounded player, and only 48 hours to heal a Fatally wounded player, but now it's just, 24 to 48 hours instead.

Ughhhh, I hate this. K+V!Hoid: If the elims successfully get off a kill tonight, and Hoid is a Villager (Unlikely) we lose. K+ ?!Hoid: If the elims kill, and we save Hoid just in case, we go into tomorrow 3-4, without knowing Hoid's alignment. F+V!Hoid: If the Elims fail their kill, and we don't save Hoid, but he's village, we go into tommorow 3-4 with a fresh start. F+?!Hoid: If the elims fail their kill and we do save hoid just in case, we go into tomorrow 3-5 and probably just execute Hoid. KV sucks, but honestly we'd deserve the loss at that point. K? sucks because we've effectively wasted a pseduo Execution. FV is honestly preferred to K? because we'll have 48 hours to actually find and discuss someone. F? is better than K? for obvious reasons, but we can't count on it. I vote to let Hoid die @Araris Valerian — Armiel — Novice @Belandrius Ohhmar — thOmmAs — Apprentice @The Unknown Hammerer — Illi — Master @CoderDrag0n8 — Sozar — Apprentice @RoyalBeeMage — William Thorne — Apprentice @STINK — Roberto — Apprentice Please Vote to let Hoid die. If you want him to live, please provide a dang good explanation for who the 3 Elims are if Hoid isn't one of them. @Hoid Slayer — Shifter — Novice Hoid. If you are a villager, and you want to win, please spend your energy trying to figure out who should be targeted with a Verdant/Roseite pot instead of defending yourself. Unless you think you can defend yourself really easily, it's not worth the effort. If you are a villager, you can do the most good by helping prevent the Elims killing one of us. If you're a villager, the 3 elims aren't going to vote to save you, and I'm not going to vote to save you, so you'll have to convince the three other villagers besides you and me. If you are an Elim, can I recommend Open-Wolfing? It's really fun.

That was, uh, me. I regret saying that at night. I mean, my analysis established 4 worlds. Those two are just the most probable. It's kinda why I was asking you about Hoid being innocent. Because I don't want to establish a Village Execution Chain. A V/V world is still possible. Araris and Hammerer are easily smart enough to hide from me. And I'm honestly not all that good at analysis. i've never sat down and analyzed my success percentage, but I'm hoodwinked more often than successful I think. I'm letting myself get distracted from HW to much, but I am waffling about you.

I would like to sign up for a Mid Range game. I'm currently listed as #17 in line, but I ran that game already.

This bit, from a purely GM standpoint, I have got to fight against. There is no rule that states a game must have a Veteran player in it. Almost no GM does pure RNG for their Distribution, but GM's shouldn't establish paterns like that. The last game i ran had i think only newish players? Honestly, if you really are Village, and you think Hoid is as well, who does that leave you? Like, if i'm mistaken and we're in a TwinHoid V/V world, please convince me so I don't cost us the game. Like, what three players do you think could be a team together?

The numbe of people who voted on other trains when ThatOneWorldhopper got executed. There wasn't really any evidence against him. Additionally, you and CD voting together today, when I was already suspicious of CD for tone, and believed in Araris' innicence.

. . . i don't even know how to Analyse that. Its either Too Wolfy to be Wolf, or its Too Villagey to be Village.

I feel better about executing TwinStorm now that a counter train is starting on Araris. I don't think Pooh Bear is evil, but I don't have time to actually analyse the situation. Probably won't before the end of the cycle. Noteworthy that is it CD as I hypothesized.

Action economy is probably the most important thing for measuring power. Its why Magestar won as the single non-villager in that one MR i ran. He could take 8 actions every night. I assume it does, but actually since it's untraceable, it might not?

Each player can effectively take 2 actions per turn. A coordinated team of 2 elims with, let's assume 1 of each Apprentice Pot, can take 4 actions total per cycle. The village starts have pots available on Day/night 2, after which 2 of them are probably dead. Day 3 would start with 8 Villagers and 2 Elims. Sure, the elims have a lot of potential actions, but not a lot of opportunity to use them. The village can take 16 actions per cycle, and don't have the obligation to use one to kill. I think 4 elims with no starting items is more likely than 2 elims with lots of starting items. And 3 elims is more likely than either.

How many pots did he have? Anyway, I need to go do Homework. TwinStorm. I will happily vote for TwinStorm or Hoid Slayer, as I said in the night.

Not who I was expecting. . . @Amanuensis, do Pots in the storehouse always come from dead players, or can some come from NPC's?

I will say, if people want to post things like "If I die, it's because I told Little Wilson that I wasn't protected tonight", you should wait until the very last minute to post it. Not several minutes before.

If I die, the elims have good taste in victims.

Crew member dies of Panic Attack. Armiel starts giving out Coffee. Suspicious.

I'm quite pleased with the events I missed. Obligatory remorse for TOW's execution, but while I would cheer an Elim's death, I'm going to shrug at a Villager's death. What's more important is that a lot of things happened to get TOW executed, so there's a lot more to look at. So, what happened? When I got off, it was 2v2v2. (Ignoring the others) (2) TwinStorm: IcedOutPenguin, Belandrius Ohhmar, (2) ThatOneWorldhopper: Araris Valerian, Hoid (2) Hoid Slayer: STINK, Jo Hoid, you asked why I voted for you, and not Stink or Penguin? Simple. Stink and Penguin are late-game wild cards. I intend no offense to either of them with this, but this is how I see them. In the early to mid game, they exist kinda passively, poking around, shrugging, saying seemingly random things. They get written off. And then in the mid-to-late game they just out the entire Eliminator team. They're basically Columbo. In pretty much every game I remember seeing either of them work, regardless of faction, they do nothing that is Alignment Indicative in the early game. So I want to keep them around for a bit before I even start to look at them as suspects. So, I voted on you, and brought us into a 3 way tie. Aman then confirmed that RNG would decide the victim of a tie, and Araris joined me on Hoid Slayer. (2) TwinStorm: IcedOutPenguin, Belandrius Ohhmar, (1) ThatOneWorldhopper: Hoid (3) Hoid Slayer: STINK, Jo, Araris Twin and Tow are now safe, and Hoid is under threat. TwinStorm gets online, finds it weird, susses Hammer, doesn't vote, and waits for Hoid to respond. Coder pops in, Hoid pops in panicking and promising to do analysis soon, Penguin pops in, RP's with Coder and Twin, then we get to Hoid's Analysis. It's basic, but solid. Neutral on some, Village on some, he reads me and TOW as Eliminator, both of which are wrong, and doesn't move his vote onto Twinstorm. In a V!Hoid world, I would be impressed by Hoid's honour. in a E!Hoid world, I don't see why he wouldn't vote Twin here, unless it's just hoping more people get online to save him. Which is exactly what happens. But weirdly it's from Araris. I'm getting confusing vibes from Araris honestly. I don't see why he switched to Hoid and then back in a V or E world. Hopefully he explains further? (2) TwinStorm: IcedOutPenguin, Belandrius Ohhmar, (2) ThatOneWorldhopper: Hoid, Araris (2) Hoid Slayer: STINK, Jo Then Royal comes in and places a vote on Twin, breaking the tie. A couple of people now have referenced Doc's networking LG. I'm unfamiliar. Which game was that? Anyway. This feels weird to me, but presumably Royal knows a lot more about Twin than I do. @TwinStorm what have you and Royal talked about in your PM? Let's assume that Royal is evil here. Why would he break the tie by killing his master? That feels like a bad idea, especially since Twin is supplying him with Roseite, (I agree with TUH btw, Elims would totally give Villagers spores.) E!Royal would do it presumably to protect another Eliminator. TOW isn't an eliminator, so if Hoid is, I would want to look at Royal. Let's assume that Royal is villager now. Why would he break the tie by killing his master? He could have voted on any of them. I don't get it. @RoyalBeeMage Could you clarify what actions Twin had taken that didn't sit well with you? Anyway, Twin is now in the lead. Coder then jumps on and very quickly votes for TOW, followed by Twin voting for TOW. (4) ThatOneWorldhopper: Hoid Slayer, Araris Valerian, CoderDrag0n8, TwinStorm, (3) TwinStorm: IcedOutPenguin, Belandrius Ohhmar, RoyalBeeMage (2) Hoid Slayer: STINK, A Jo in the Bush, I'm starting to see a pattern of Twin being in the lead, and then people immediately voting to bring the train off him. Araris first, but then he went back to TOW, and now Coder jumps on TOW as well. Eliminator team of Coder, Twin, and Araris? Maybe. I'm going to ignore Coder for now, I don't want to tunnel on him. What happens next? Twin and Royal go back and forth for a little bit about whether or not Royal received a a Roseite Charge from him. Apparently he did, but didn't realize it? Before he realizes it, The Hammerer Formerly Known as Order votes on Twinstorm. (4) ThatOneWorldhopper: Hoid Slayer, Araris Valerian, CoderDrag0n8, TwinStorm, (4) TwinStorm: IcedOutPenguin, Belandrius Ohhmar, RoyalBeeMage, Bald Brandon (2) Hoid Slayer: STINK, A Jo in the Bush, Okay, I probably can't take all the credit for this chaos. No one cares about Hoidslayer anymore. The Execution is officially between TOW and Twin. Hammerer gives several very good reasons for E!Twin to give V!Royal a Roseite charge. (If both TOW and Hoid are Village, I'm gonna rethink this, but for now I feel pretty solid on Village Hammerer.) TUH reties Twin with Tow, and Twin doesn't criticize that, because TUH quotes scripture while doing it. I haven't noticed until now, but has TwinStorm's member title always been Dovie'andi, or did he change it to that after Hammerer voted him? Anyway, Royal realizes Twin bribed him, and votes for TWO instead. (This is why Eliminators would give Villagers nice things) (5) ThatOneWorldhopper: Hoid Slayer, Araris Valerian, CoderDrag0n8, TwinStorm, RoyalBeeMage, (3) TwinStorm: IcedOutPenguin, Belandrius Ohhmar,The Unknown Hammerer (2) Hoid Slayer: STINK, A Jo in the Bush, With Royal's confirmation, Hammerer starts second guessing himself, and switches from Twin to Hoid. No one else follows him. (5) ThatOneWorldhopper: Hoid Slayer, Araris Valerian, CoderDrag0n8, TwinStorm, RoyalBeeMage, (3) Hoid Slayer: STINK, A Jo in the Bush, The Unknown Hammerer (2) TwinStorm: IcedOutPenguin, Belandrius Ohhmar, Literally everyone alive was at some point involved in this. There is plenty to analyze now. Although Stink, Penguin, myself, and Belandrius didn't really do anything after the 2v2v2 tie kicked off. First off, are we in an E/E world with Hoid and Twin? Honestly maybe. They never voted for eachother after the tie. If they are both E/E, I'm not sure who their third would be. Not Hammerer, but beyond that it could be anyone except me. Okay, second off, are we in a V/V world with Hoid and Twin? Not greening TUH this time. In a V/V/V world, The Elims are sitting pretty. Stink, Penguin, Belandrius and I never even moved, but I don't know if any of them even had time to get on. I didn't get home until past rollover. Don't know about the others. Hammerer and Araris both moved their vote back and forth a few times. Would they do that if they were Eliminators? Honestly if this is a V/V/V world, I don't think I would get anything out of it. Araris and Hammerer don't actually look bad in it, everyone just seems kinda solidly neutral. Annoying. I hope Twin or Hoid are Elims. Okay, onto E!Hoid V!Twin. I think Araris is Village in this world. While he puts Hoid in check for a little bit, I think it's still semi-clearing. After going onto Hoid, he could have gon onte Twin instead of back to TOW if he had been E! with Hoid. This world is hard to analyse, because no one else ever votes on Hoid until Hammerer at the end. I could see Hammerer taking the small risk of voting for a Teammate in the last 5 minutes, setting him up for a possible 4v4 tie, (Mat Cauthon RNG and all that), but I think it's more likely that Ham is Village in an E!H-V!T world. Royal was the one who broke the tie away from Hoid, and voted on both Twin and TOW at different points, so I feel like he's a probable partner there. I don't think that just two elims would be enough, so presumably a third. They probably wouldn't all vote together, so that would rule out Coder, which would leave 1 of my unanalysed trio of Stink, Penguin, and Belandrius as their third. Finally, E!Twin V!Hoid world. This is the world I'm most interested in because of the number of times that Twin was threatened and saved. Threatened by Royal and Hammerer, saved by Coder and Twin. Still not sure about Araris in this world. I'm leaning towards Coder/Twin's third being in that unanalysable trio again. Looking at all of these worlds together, I do want to put more pressure on STINK, Penguin, and Belandrius, because in all but the V/V world, I think one of them is likely the third elim. I'm most inclined to execute TwinStorm and Hoid Slayer. After one or both of them are gone, I go after Royal and Coder, depending on the results of Hoid/Storm. Anyway. It's an hour past my bedtime. I apologize about the coloring in this post. At 8 o'clock, my computer goes into Night Light mode, so there's a massive red tint over my screen. I found at least one instance where I colored a player blue instead of green. If I missed other's I'll edit them, uh, later. I need to RP. . . Honestly, I don't think I'm going to make Apprentice Rank in this game, even if I do Study. Too much Work and school.

@Amanuensis what happens if there is a tie in the execution? Coder Dragon I'm not loving the current candidates, and I'm not voting for Stink or Penguin, so Hoid Slayer.

https://www.17thshard.com/forums/topic/200908-mr74-cycle-4-glys/

Yeah, it is weak. I stand by it as still feeling off, but if I find a better reason to vote for someone else, than I'll switch my vote. I think any eliminator would give out a Zephyr Spore, yeah. We each get 2+ of them every cycle, so that's an easy bit of village cred to earn. Noted. I don't remember much about previous games, but I'll take your word for it. I definitely remember you being excited when I posted the writeup of you killing Hoid Slayer, which might be coloring my perception of your desire for RP being Elim-coded. Here's Doc12's post that people are talking about. Doc expressed no suspicion of Araris Valerian, The Unknown Hammerer, Twinstorm, Hoid Slayer, Iced Out Penguin, A Joe in the Bush Doc expressed suspicion of Belandrius Ohhmar, Coder Dragon, That One Worldhopper*, Royal Bee Mage, and STINK. Yeah, I don't think we can get much out of this. Assuming the Elims killed Doc12 because of this specific post, there are 3ish scenarios: Doc put all the elims in the no-Suspicion category, Doc put them all in the Suspicion category, or they're split in between them. It's basically a 50/50 between suspicious or not suspicious, and the elims could have killed Doc because Braid was Completely wrong or Completely right, or neither. If the Elims killed Doc12 because of this post, it would be to cause confusion, so I'm just going to ignore it. I think it's more likely they killed Doc12 for other reasons. Experience with them as elims, or something. No idea what. I appreciate this. I would rather execute myself than a brand new player on their very first execution. I do increasingly trust TwinStorm as well. *Point's Finger* I agree with this. I can't tell, STINK, is there reasoning here? I think this Vote Count is correct? Someone please check it for me. Vote Count: Araris Valerian (1): Hoid Slayer Twin Storm (2): Iced Out Penguin, Belandrius Ohhmar STINK (1): Coder Dragon That One Worldhopper (1): Araris Valerian Coder Dragon (1): A Jo in the Bush Iced Out Penguin (1): Twin Storm Hoid Slayer (1): Stink I'm running out of time before I leave for work, and I won't have any time to do Analysis before the end of the turn, because Mondays are hell. Of the people with votes on them, I'd prefer to not execute Twin Storm and Iced Out Penguin. Everyone else I have neutral or only slight leans on. AT Evereyone, if you haven't put in orders to grab Spore Charges, do so now! Don't forget!

So, if Doc wrote the first scene of Braid creating a Roseite pot, then we can predict that they successfully got the Roseite Charge yesterday. There was enough Crimson Charges available that Doc's RP could be lying, and they instead took a risk and made a Crimson Pot. They would have had to luckily get two Crimson charges, and then luckily not fail making it. But I'm pretty sure you can only prepare one pot a night, and even if I'm wrong and you can prepare multiple with 1 Prepare action, Doc shouldn't have had enough charges to make two pots. (AC Pot requires 2 Crim, 1 Zeph, NR Pot requires 1 Rose, 1 Zeph, 5 charges total) This brings me to my conclusions and observations. #1: Doc12 started with an Apprentice Crimson Pot. #2: None of you have mentioned that. While it's obviously possible for people to overlook details like that, it seems weird to me that no one has mentioned it yet. How many of you weren't surprised because you started with items as well? This is going to make it difficult to impossible to eventually track all actions. I'm going to toss a vote on Coder Dragon for now. Their reaction specifically to the lack of Writeup originally feels kinda disappointed in a, hmm, I don't know how to phrase this. It feel like Coder woke up Christmas morning and didn't get the present he was expecting? Like, he was excited to read about Doc dying, because he had a hand in the killing, and is now sad that he didn't get to read himself being really cool. Vote Count: Araris Valerian (1): Hoid Slayer Twin Storm (2): Iced Out Penguin, Belandrius Ohhmar STINK (1): Coder Dragon That One Worldhopper (1): Araris Valerian Coder Dragon (1): A Jo in the Bush

Emmett carefully tied off the ropes leading to the primary sail, under the watchful eyes of the crew. They had some experience with sailing, though they were by no means a master at it, but the crewmember who was watching them, Doug, nodded approvingly at Emmett's careful motions and knot tying ability. Emmett was thankful for the lantern light that Doug was providing. It wasn't their first night-time voyage, but it was never fun to try sailing in the dark. Doug clapped them on the back. "Good showing! Go report in the quartermaster, and he'll get you your first batch of spores." "Thank you. Which way is the quartermaster?" Doug rattled off some directions, and Emmett tried hard to memorize them, then headed below decks to speak with Fort. They had heard rumors of the man's trading desire, and was hopefully that he would accept some Celeste Spores in exchange for the Roseite spores they wanted to experiment with. Or maybe a nice Sunlight spore. An hour later, Emmett left Fort's hall, quite pleased with the Zephry spores they had gotten, having completely forgotten what they had originally wanted during the trade battle. I'm of two minds about whether or not we should share what spores we get. On one hand, if we coordinate enough, we can catch an eliminator in a lie about what action they took. On the other hand, revealing who has what allows for thieving if someone gets enough Midnight essence. Plus, unless there is significantly more spores available tomorrow, we'll mostly be watching people make PM's. I'm kind of interested in saving my Zephyr, to try to make a Master Zephyr Pot. I'd only have a 1 in 4 chance of success, but I don't feel like the consequences of failing to make Zephyr would be all that bad, and it seems like the best spore to 'waste' in the attempt, since there's probably 26+ Zephyr in play right now Since Coder Dragon and Hammerer started the trend, I'll subvert it. Eliminators, feel free to kill me. I'll not be protected tonight in any way, and I have school-work to do. I welcome death with open arms, especially if Penguin is an eliminator and kills me with Celeste spores. Are the Elims immune to Reverse Psychology?