Sart

Honestly, I have no idea what's happening anymore. I think I'm just going to do a Contribution Crusade on Lord Silberfarben

Votes in the previous cycles, now color coordinated: I'm still of the opinion that the Jeskeri Practitioners, in general, will not vote on other Jeskeri in the thread. I'm guessing they are using the doc to search for the Jeskeri Cultists, while using the main thread to hunt for the Korathi Cultist. With that in mind, that would theoretically clear Pyro, Elkanah, Illwei, and Hael. That leaves eight people as potential Jeskeri. I know that I am a Korathi, which brings the pool of suspects for me down to seven. Silberfarben: No votes, and no one votes on them. Might even die to the inactivity filter. Probably Korathi. Striker: Only one vote, and it's a Day 1 vote. He keeps playing the "I don't know what's happening" card, which is annoying. Mild Cultist read. Bard: Only one vote from Day 2. Also in danger of the inactivity filter. He's tunneling on Matrim, but it feels genuine. Mild Korathi read. Mist: Only one vote from Day 3. Votes on Striker for laying low and making a tie. Ties seem like a good thing to me, but reads as a new player. Mild Korathi read. Devotary: I always read Devotary as evil, but he reads as more frustrated than anything. Mild Cultist read. Matrim: Something is wrong here. I can't believe we didn't vote up any Jeskeri on Day 1 and Day 2. If Matrim is a Jeskeri, then the math checks. Mild Jeskeri read. Kasimir: I still didn't get the point of voting himself. He didn't even RP it, and it got mostly ignored by the thread. Also suspects Matrim. My best guess for Kotathi Cultist So, yeah. I suspect the most active people, while trusting the inactives. Whoops. I'm going to place a vote on Matrim's Dice. It would tell us a lot about the alignmen of Kasimir and Bard, while also helping to confirm my theory that we got one Jeskeri on Day 2.

Wait a second. Something's off with Kasimir's last post in Cycle Two. Sure, though I admit I'm more sensitive to mischaracterisation of my own arguments I think I've had to clear this one up a couple of times already. I wanted to see what Sart had in mind and I voted to call his bluff. Your presentation makes it sound like I objected to the no-lynch proposal off the bat, whereas as I have mentioned previously, Sart used extremely strong and aggressive language and a threat. I wanted to see if he was bluffing or trying to intimidate players off voting (what good would that do?) so I took the bait. For this one, I would argue that working off what we had before Hael clarified later in this cycle, Hael had already made it clear that he wasn't voting because of the claiming qua claiming, he was voting because of a negative gut reaction to Pyro's - urgh, is this even a gambit? Well, shenanigans I suppose. (Though on relooking at Hael's post again, I feel as though Hael has once again shifted position...) I would agree with this, except that he did disagree with a specific Straw claim: on Jeskeri self-targeting via Korathi. (In fact, given last cycle, not exactly wrong.) Okay, I'm just gonna post this and come back to things later. Just know I'm wary of you but not outright distrustful. Here's my problem with this post. How does Kasimir know that the Jeskeri doc didn't vote on its members in the main thread? I think the only reasonable explanation is that Kasimir is a Jeskeri Practitioner. I don't think he's a Jeskeri Cultist though, because he was arguing with Gears, the target of the Cultist kill. I need an explanation for this.

Ah. Then I misread your post. My apologies. Yeah, this definitely feels like something sides will be drawn on. As the doc dwindles the likelihood goes up, but in the early game, I think it's too risky of a move for them. @Elbereth Is there a reason why Hael's vote on me is missing?

Hard disagree with your assumption. The people in the Jeskeri doc want to survive as long as possible. While there could be the benefit of hitting a Cultist, it would be incredibly dangerous to double kill in that doc. I'm also presuming that's why they lynched Xino rather than anyone else. If they had, the doc's numbers would have gone down by two instead of one, making the game much easier for the Korathi.

Rollover is very inconvenient for me, which means this is probably going to be my only post for this cycle. I'm going to do an ISO of Lotus. We know she was a Practitioner, so we should be able to learn more about the other Practitioners by analyzing their posts. Nothing game relevant here. It's interesting that Lotus asked this question in the thread, rather than in the Jeskeri doc. Lovely RP, but nothing game relevant. Supports lynching me. Yet more evidence that I am a Korathi. Bad grammar for one thing. It's there not their. It's also interesting that she continues to ask rules questions in the thread. Perhaps she was trying it as a way to make herself look innocent? Interacts with TJ Shade here, but there's not a lot to go off of. Again, voices suspicion of me. Mentions that Pyro PM'd them. Very interesting. Votes on Pyro due to prolific PM'ing. This makes me read non-Jeskeri on Pyro. Defends Ashbringer. That makes me think Ashbringer is in the Jeskeri doc. Again, nothing game relevant here. Final Thoughts: I'm voting on Ashbringer. The post defending him reeks of doc coordination.

Sorry, sometimes I can't resist kicking the hornet's nest. I'm perfectly aware that non-voting is a non-strategy. If you look at the games I've played, you'll realize that I tend to extol the virtues of voting, so that post was wildly out of character. I mostly made it to stir up reactions. Since there is only a one-vote minimum, I suspect lynches will occur in both the Jeskeri doc, and the main game. I'm assuming that there are more Jeskeri combined, than there are Korathi, otherwise the Korathi have no hope of controlling the lynch today. This means the game in the doc will go quicker than the game in the thread. The best scenario for the Korathi is the Cultists to do well in that game, eliminating those pesky JP. At the same time, since the Korathi are the bigger party, I would expect the Cultist kill to hit us first. Obviously, it's going to be better if we lynch a JP, but with what I'm estimating as a third of the village in that doc, it's going to be hard. That's why a strategy of non-voting would be ideal. However, both the JP, as well as the Korathi cultist don't want that to happen. Thus, votes will be thrown out, and we'll have a day one lynch anyways. Onto post analysis I love that you're playing the game in RP. It's good to have you back. Can't say that I appreciate the vote on myself, but that post was weird for my standards, so it's understandable. The promise in that post was a bluff, so no vote here. That's a bold claim from Straw. You believe that the Jeskeri doc will direct the thread's vote to themselves, but I greatly disagree with that argument. In fact, that's such an odd idea, I wonder if it was discussed in a doc somewhere. Straw Hmm... Are you agreeing that my post was odd, or that the Jeskeri would direct the vote to themselves? Looks like my plan got Drake to trust me, and caused Kasimir to get a vote. To be honest, that post was ripe for a vote, so it might be tempting for a Jeskeri to go for it. On the other hand, I could see Kasimir making that post as a villager, because historically kumbaya never works. So, all in all, I'm pleased with the discussion I've generated, and I want to hear more from Straw about the point I highlighted.

Right then. Time to propose my game-breaking strategy. NOBODY VOTE IN THE THREAD. I'm a Korathi. The Jeskeri combined make up a sizable percentage of the town, so I doubt any attempts to lynch a Jeskeri Practitioner will work. Meanwhile, the Jeskeri will be lynching themselves at a rapid rate to try and accomplish their win condition. Instead of killing ourselves, we should let the Jeskeri do our work for us. Any votes will be viewed as Jeskeri aggression, and I will vote on the first person who votes, for as long as they continue to vote.

This definitely needs more players to succeed. Therefore, I'm signing up as Sevat.

I'm just going to copy and paste Elbereth's role breakdown here, since it's a useful reference. StrikerEZ I find this discussion to be a distraction for the village. Most of your posts have been extolling the virtues of Transportation, even voting on Gears due to his assertion that Adhesion is better than Transportation. There are two problems with your argument. Adhesion is strictly better than Transportation for determining the night kill. If there is no night kill, there are only two possibilities. Either the kill action was canceled, or the elims forgot to put in a kill. A kill blocked by Progression is reported via the write-up. A lack of kill is generally a dead giveaway that Adhesion was successful. Contrast that with Transportation. While it is true you may have directed the elim kill to your target, it is just as likely that the elims targeted that person. This scenario creates plenty of false positives, and won't be helpful. Radiants with Transportation have much better things to do. Elsecallers can just scan for alignment, which is a much easier way to learn who is evil. Willshapers have access to Cohesion, which is also a much better action to use. It works as a form of protection, and can lead to the elims killing themselves. Even if you accidentally disrupt a scan, Transformation results reveal the person that it hit, so that won't be an issue. I fundamentally disagree with your assertion that role analysis posts are NAI. They are absolutely indicative of alignment. Yes, Gears said that he wrote his post before the game started, but if he was an elim, you can modify those posts to encourage poor strategies. By analyzing the ruleset, we analyze player's thoughts, and can detect role and alignment.

We should really re-title General Rules with New Players Start Here, so people know how to sign up. Speaking of which, signing up as Sartsart, a dirty looking fellow with a limp.

So, I was actually extorted last cycle, and forced to remove Bugsy's vote. This seems like a clear indication that any remaining Constable vote manipulation is inactive. However, I would prefer not to go after the inactives until we lynch Bugsy. I've suspecting for a while that Winsting is one of the inactive players, and it's going to be tough to tell which one he is with the lack of information. However, once Bugsy is gone, we can start the Contribution Crusade again. On the other hand, this means a Constable Extortionist is still active, which means we can't focus solely on the inactives. I suspect either Matrim or Mint is the Extortionist, but I'm not positive on either of those. Especially since we were able to tie the vote last cycle, we should be okay doing a lynch just on Bugsy.

First, can I just say I called it? Admittedly you submitted an action Cycle 1, but I was suspecting you very early on. I think we need to lynch Bugsy before we go after the remaining Eliminators. The Constables are currently sitting on a dead man's switch. If Pyro is to be believed, which we need to take with a grain of salt, the Constables know who Winsting is. If the last Elim comes up for the lynch, they can threaten to kill Winsting, throwing the game to Bleeder if he is still alive. I'll also point out that we have done a good job killing Constables. A third of the kills have been constables, which is great. We currently have 17 players alive. Obviously, Bugsy needs to go, and if his claim of having an extra life is legitimate, we'll need to spend two cycles lynching him. Based on the current rate of killing, that will put us down to 14 players. Worst case scenario, the Elims have 4 players left alive, so it would be 4 v 10. That isn't great odds, but it's still totally doable from a village perspective. Furthermore, I think having 4 players alive is unlikely. I could easily see only 2 or 3 Elims being alive, which is even better odds. We've cleared several people already, so I'm not too concerned about this. Plus, lynching Bleeder means we no longer have to worry about dispersal. Finally, if there's one thing that this game has proven, it's that you kill confirmed evil players. Not lynching Pyro was a mistake, and led us down several wrong lynches. I am not in favor of leaving a serial killer running around, especially since we could potentially screw up and hand them the victory.

To confirm the vote manipulation. I smuggled Rae on Cycle 1 (They were voting on me at the time). That vote manipulation tracks. I didn't smuggle anyone Day 2 or Day 3. I imagine Elkanah Smuggled a vote off of themselves, but that's beside the point. Cycle 4 I targeted Pyro, but was roleblocked. Cycle 5 I targeted Matrim, and finally confirmed my role. There's now a large bandwagon on Shard of Reading. I feel like this is just new player syndrome. The thread has been tunneling on me for a while, so it's understandable that he could get confused. It also appears that Xino is attempting to use the bandwagon to get out of the lynch train. Based on the vote manipulation in the previous cycle, I don't think they are a Constable, but because they've survived a kill, they are still a likely Bleeder suspect.

...Or you could be lying about that right now. You know what, Pyro, I'm getting tired of this. Sorry for breaking the tie but Bugsy isn't up for the vote, and I'm worried about manipulation.

And thus, isn't Bugsy the better lynch target? If Xino was Bleeder's kill target, they probably aren't Bleeder. I suppose there is potential for a Wounded Gazelle Gambit (WGG) happening, where an eliminator, or in this case a serial killer, puts a kill on themselves (which they know they will survive) in order to look more innocent. However, I don't see that happening, because the prospect of an instant win seems more tempting.

That's interesting, and also annoying. If it's a Villager, why? I was going to establish my alibi. Even in the hypothtical scenario where I was Bleeder, it would be suicide to kill or scan that cycle, because of my claim. I suppose I would have had a 1 in 20 shot of getting a lucky Winsting kill, but those are poor odds. I also can't take everything Pyro says at face value. The person roleblocking me could have been an Elim, and Pyro just lied about it. It gives them what amounts to a free lynch on a villager. That doesn't help look for Bleeder, but it's not the worst result for them.

It's also sad because I was removing Pyro's vote (It was on me at the time I submitted the order) but got roleblocked. We could have at least killed an eliminator, but nope. And now I'm getting lynched again, because of the constables roleblocking me. It's an annoyingly effective strategy. We also still don't know where the second kill came from, whether it was Bleeder or if it was a Bartender. We also have two people survive attempts on their lives. I'll amp up the pressure Xinoehp. I'm also still suspicious of Bugsy. He fits if Bleeder was inactive Cycle 1, and now he's survived a kill. However, no one is voting on him, so Xino it is. Vote Count: Xinoehp (2): DeTess, Silberfarben Pyro (1): Kynedath Sart (5): wilson, Matrim, Experience, Bugsy, Pyro

Vote Tally: Coda (1): DeTess Pyro (3): Silberfarben, TJ Shade, The God King HH (1): Megasif Wilson (1): Wilson Sart (5): Bugsy, Pyro, Matrim, Hemalurgic Headshot, Experience Matrim (1): Sart Well, this is annoying. I'm not Winsting, so at least my lynch won't end the game. Unfortunately, I'm not Bleeder either, so this is a waste of a lynch. I can literally prove my role after cycle rollover. Do you really think Bleeder will take off a cycle of killing in some attempt to frame me? Not likely, especially since I'm getting lynched anyways. I could move my vote off of Matrim, and onto Pyro, but I can't tie up the vote, because my power doesn't allow that. Plus, our biggest concern is finding Bleeder, and while I can't fully dismiss the conspiracy theory that Bleeder is Pyro, I don't think it's likely. I guess I'll move my vote from Matrim to Hemaluric Headshot. I've already ruled Wilson out. And between him and Coda, I think I suspect Hemalurgic Headshot more.

Interesting claim. Because Bleeder has a scan it's not a guarantee that you're good. Still, that's enough for me to retract my vote. Bugsy Also an interesting claim. Unfortunately, it creates an IKYK. That stands for "I Know You Know". Suppose you are Bleeder, and your action was blocked Day 1. You know the thread would be suspicious if you said nothing, so you tell the truth that you were targeted. But I know that you know that, so I still suspect you. But you know that I know that, so you still claim anyway. But I know you know... This repeats ad infinitum, and gets into mind games. I'm curious as to who else was blocked, but for now Matrim's Dice I missed the part where DeTess claimed you. Because you've scanned people on the first two cycles, you obviously can't be Bleeder, and unless severe mindgames are happening, you aren't a Constable either. I suspect that the other person who was role-blocked will come forward. Escorts claiming who they blocked on Cycle 2 and 3 would greatly reduce the suspect list. You make a good point about Dowser and the 5th Octant Constable. I didn't consider those roles, so we could have a cautious Bleeder on our hands. Winsting avoiding the kill is a very good argument in favor of him claiming. I was thinking about the future turns, but that doesn't matter if we all lose this turn. Well, I have something of an alibi. I'm a Smuggler, and I removed Rae's vote cycle one. In retrospect, I should have removed other votes on Cycles 2 & 3, but I didn't due to the whole bandwagon situation. It's not a perfect alibi, but taking a page from Elkanah's book, do you really think Bleeder would use vote manipulation rather than a kill or scan. Admittedly, I was in some hot water, so vote manipulation wouldn't have been the worst idea, but I had already voted in self-preservation. I'll be removing a vote this cycle as well to prove my claim. Bleeder obviously isn't going to take time off from killing, since they are so close to winning.

Vote Count: Coda (1): DeTess Pyro (1): Lord Silberfaren Hemalurgic Headshot (1): Megasif Wilson (1): Matrim's Dice, Wilson @A Joe in the Bush If Winsting dies the turn after Bleeder dies, does Bleeder still win? What happens if both Bleeder and Winsting die on the same turn? Also, does Winsting gain the Gambling Tycoon's extra life? Rust and ruin, this is bad. I should have stuck to my guns and gone deeper into the vote analysis. Instead, I trusted the Stalker information from @Devotary of Spontaneity, and this was the result. I still don't know what @Elkanah was thinking. Literally any target would have been better than Karnage. Well, we have to live with it now. Okay, so there's 22 players left alive right now. Unless there is some magnificent trolling going on, @The Young Pyromancer is probably not Bleeder. Still, they are a safe bet to lynch, since they are claiming to be a Constable. Bartenders please shoot this man. I don't believe we should have a go between with the Elims and Winsting. Once we've taken care of Bleeder, the Elims have every reason to take Winsting out, and while we can technically protect him from the Elim kill, it would be extremely dificult. If Pyro survives the Bartender kill, perhaps we'll re-examine the non-Bleeder assumption. I will exclude @Dot from the list of Bleeder candidates. Simply put, they haven't been on the Shard since Tuesday, so there's no way they could be submitting the necessary kills. Likewise, @Hammond42 was inactive, so @Megasif cannot be Bleeder. I will also exclude @little wilson from the list. They are an Impersonator and a Gossip, and thus cannot be Bleeder as well. I presume they're going to use their power, which is why they are being flippant about voting for themselves. I keep coming back to the lack of the Day 1 Bleeder kill. @DeTess claimed Cycle 2 that a Stalker contacted him in a PM, saying that @Furamirionind targeted @Araris Valerian. Considering that Fura flipped Elim, that all checks out. I'm still wondering if DeTess is actually a Stalker and made up a PM, or if someone else is the actual Stalker. We also know that Elkanah targeted Araris, but that turned out to be a dead end, since Elkanah was actually a Smuggler. Araris was the only person who died that cycle, and surviving a kill would have appeared in the writeup. There are four possibilities I can see: Bleeder scanned someone, rather than killing. I find this possibility unlikely. Killing is inherently more beneficial to Bleeder, because it still reduces the suspect pool for Flogs, while weakening the other factions. It's not impossible, but I'm not going to dwell on this possibility. Bleeder attacked Araris. Again, this feels unlikely. It would mean Araris has gotten a serious reputation, because both the serial killer and the elims tried to kill him, and a villager removed his vote. If that's the case, poor Araris. I can't rule it out entirely, but I'll move on. Bleeder's kill was blocked by an Escort. At this point, I would recommend any Escort's who used that action Cycle 1 to reveal themselves. That could be the key to revealing Bleeder's true identity. Based on the number of asleep people, two Escorts used their action on Cycle 1. If you are one of those two, now is the time to reveal your role. Bleeder was inactive Cycle 1. This requires a player who forgot to send an action during the first cycle, but has been active ever since. The only player I can see doing that is @Bugsy. His only post Cycle 1 was apologizing because he had an essay due. I can see a scenario where Bugsy as Bleeder posts that quick snippet, but fails to send in an action. I find Case 3 particularly appealing, but since I did not have the ability to roleblock anyone, I can't contribute much. I see Case 4 as another possibility, so my vote goes on Bugsy for now.

Too many ninjas. And while it is true that Bleeder can win while dead, killing them lets us focus on killing the rest of the Constables, without having to worry about our alignment scanner being attacked every cycle.

Vote Count: Archivist (1): DeTess Pyro (1): Elkanah Elkanah (5): Wilson, Matrim's Dice, Kynedath, Hemalurgic Headshot, Karnage, Devotary of Spontaneity Alright, this is turning into a bandwagon against Elkanah. The main piece of evidence against them was that Young Pyromancer (An outed eliminator) claimed they had seen Elkanah targetting Araris, the victim of a kill. After much pulling teeth, Elkanah eventually claimed to have removed Araris's vote. I was going to go into vote manipulation discussion, and urge whoever removed a vote on Karnage's train to step forward. However, I got ninja'd by Devotary, who scanned Elkanah targetting Karnage. So yeah, Elkanah is 100% Bleeder. Let's lynch them before Flogs dies.

Well, this is pretty much redundant at this point, but Straw. I should've trusted my gut, instead of switching to Karnage. Karnage supposedly revealing himself is extremely problematic. If he isn't Bleeder, we can presume that he will be attacked every cycle. There isn't a surefire way to keep him protected, especially because of the bodyguards not being able to target someone twice in a row. Hopefully we'll have a couple cycles, but once he's dead, we'll be in sudden death due to Winsting appearing. At that point, we'll need to focus on finding Bleeder rather than finding the Constables. That's problematic, because she can't be killed by any vigilantes. We'll have to lynch her, but that's like finding a needle in a haystack. I propose that if anyone survives a night kill from now on, we lynch them. This obviously excludes Karnage. We can't afford to have Bleeder win, and though it might kill discussion, we'll need to focus our lynch on her.