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Sart

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Everything posted by Sart

  1. Sart
    Let's examine the scenarios. There are 3 Knights. They have a majority of the votes, and the only thing preventing the win is inactivity. It's a possibility, I suppose, but that would make me the only Librarian. At that point, all I'm doing is playing spoiler. There are 2 Knights. Before Ironfire died, he got off a conversion. Then, in the following cycles, another conversion was fired off. Let's break this up into sub-cases. The Knights do not have a conversion tonight. Unlikely, but perhaps they only succeeded last night. We lynch a Knight. Great! It's 2 v 1 v 1. However, the Smedry gets a kill. If they kill the last Knight, they die to the lynch. Instead, they'll kill a Librarian. We're stuck at 1 v 1 v 1, and the last Librarian gets to play spoiler, again. The Knights do have a conversion tonight. We lynch a Knight today. It's back to 2 v 1 v 1. If they miss their conversion, it's back to sub-case 1. If they manage to convert a villager, they have enough to tie the lynch. Even if the last Librarian works with the Smedry to lynch a Knight, it's 1 v 1 v 1. The Smedry kills again, bringing us to a 1 v 1. No lynch occurs due to the 2-vote minimum, and the Smedry wins. There is 1 Knight. If we lynch the Smedry, the Knight presumably gets a conversion off. It's 2 v 2. If we win the toss-up, the Knights go down to one, and then we win the next day. If we lynch the Knight, the Smedry kills one of us tonight. It's 1 v 3, and the Smedry gets lynched. This is the best case scenario, but it's also the one I find the least likely. If Ironfire truly managed to convert someone on Night 1 or Night 2, I find it extremely implausible that in the 4 remaining nights, no conversion took place. There are no Knights. We lynch the Smedry, and we win. If there are two or more Knights, the Librarians cannot win the game, barring Transporter shenanigans. If there is one Knight, we can still win, even if we lynch a Smedry today. If there are no Knights, it's pointless to lynch anyone besides the Smedry. Plus, we do not know 100% if Straw is in fact the Smedry. All signs point to yes, but he could still technically be a Knight, or even a Librarian. If he's just bluffing Smedry, the real Smedry couldn't reveal themselves, otherwise they would be on the chopping block. Perhaps this analysis is too cynical, and there is an outcome where lynching a Knight candidate is a better option. However, I think that time has passed. Yes, lynching Straw is a gamble, but it's one I'm willing to make.
  2. Sart
    Umm... Why are Coda's and Kidpen's names not crossed out? It was messing up my count. With only five players left alive, if we're in the worst case scenario, the Crystal Knights now have a majority of the players. I think that's the wrong assumption to make though, or at least it does no good for us to assume it. I'm going to hope for the best, and assume the Librarians still have a chance of winning this. To that end, Straw, I think it's likely you're the Smedry. Based on the kill pattern, you appear to be the last likely candidate. I understand if we have Crystal Knights still left alive this is a risky play, but if Ironfire went well and truly inactive, then lynching you should end the game. If it doesn't, we're still dealing with at least one Crystal Knight, and we can try to pivot from there.
  3. Sart
    Well. Crem. Player List from most to least Trusted: Sart Experience Shqueeves Zillah Kidpen Straw
  4. Sart
    Well, the lynch on Straw is going nowhere. I've also been harboring some suspicions on Elandera, so I'm changing my vote to him.
  5. Sart
    Honestly, I think the claim is legitimate. If Experience was a Crystal Knight, the claim would be totally pointless. Coda already had three votes on them. There was no need to volunteer that information, since the train had already left the station. I especially doubt that, as a Crystal Knight, he would deliberately link himself with one of his teammates. This whole lynch feels like the Crystal Knights just taking the easy route. I still think it's Straw. They've been focusing way more on hypothetical scenarios the last few rounds, and something still feels off.
  6. Sart
    Vote Count: Coda (3): Elandera, Experience, Zillah Straw (1): Sart Experience (1): Shqueeves Well, I can't leave it like this, since Coda could still vote. For the record, I still have a good gut vibe, but the information is too critical to ignore at this point. Straw will have to wait another day.
  7. Sart
    Okay, if you've used your role at all, now would be the time to reveal your results to the thread. If your claim is verified, it probably takes you out of the running for Smedry. Unfortunately, Straw is right, in that the Knights are the bigger threat. Consider the scenario where we lynch the Smedry today. In the worst case scenario, there are 2 Knights and 6 Librarians left No one dies the following Night We have another lynch. Worst case scenario, we mislynch The Knights convert, leaving us at 3 Knights and 4 Librarians One more mislynch, and it's game over Now let's consider the scenario where we lynch a Knight today. Again, in worse case scenario, there is still a Knight, and still the Smedry Smedry probably kills a Librarian tonight, leaving us 5 v 1 v 1 A mislynch puts us at 4 v 1 v 1 The conversion and kill leave us with 2 Librarians, 2 Knights, and 1 Smedry Okay, the worst case scenario there is still bad. However, we get a chance of the Smedry hitting a Knight, which greatly increases our odds of winning. So, with that in mind, we are looking for Knights yet again. If there are two Knights right now, which there might be, one of them must be a convert. I'm just spitballing here, but who among the active players would they most want to convert. I think the answer's obvious. Straw has been the most active villager by far. He's gotten several trusted vibes by several different people. He's also proven adept at cracking codes, which the Knights might want. Therefore, my vote goes on him.
  8. Sart
    ... Actually, that raises a good question. @little Wilson do the Crystal Knights have a doc?
  9. Sart
    I feel like we're dealing with a hydra. Cut down one head, and two more emerge. I'm hoping that the Smedry ends up hitting a Crystal Knight, otherwise a third of the town will be evil.
  10. Sart
    We are, it's 5 to 3 with no other votes.
  11. Sart
    Vote Count:S Coda (3): Elandera, StrikerEZ, Zillah StrikerEZ (3): Experience, Straw, Coda Zillah (1): Sart I have to decide this, don't I? A lynch is better than a jailing, due to the alignment reveal. For Coda, we have a gut read, a self-defense vote, and another gut read. For Striker, we have two votes due to not supporting a lynch Day 1, and a self-defense vote. I've decided to vote on StrikerEZ. I like voting more on logic than on gut reads, although I can acknowledge the usefulness of the latter. Also, @Kidpen is lurking. Care to join the thread?
  12. Sart
    ...That would make more sense. Shqueeves. Moving on to other avenues of discussion, there are two points I want to make. The first concerns @Zillah They made an odd post that needs some investigating I'm curious as to the contents of this anonymous PM. What exactly about it indicated that God King was lying? Since we now know God King was telling the truth, I find it odd that anyone would like to try and implicate him further. The rules also state the Anonymous Contact could send a message to up to two players. Since that's the case, I would be curious if someone else also received the same anonymous message. Also, Zillah never followed up on this post with player analysis. Zillah until you contribute more, my vote is on you. The second point I would like to make concerns the identity of the Smedry. Namely, I believe that they have a role other than being a Smedry. This theory comes from the ruleset. The Lone Smedry is a faction, not a role. We also know that one of the Crystal Knights had a role to start with. I seriously doubt we have any vanilla players, and so I suspect that the Smedry is also not a vanilla player, with no role other than his faction ability. This leads me to a corollary point. I suspect that the Smedry is killing people outside of their PM group. It's harder to suspect people you have a PM with, so they may be intentionally leaving people they are chatting with alive. Plus, if they have a role outside of Smedry, that gives them targets for that role. In that vein, it might be prudent to reveal if you had a PM with a dead player. In my mind, that would lower your chance of being a Smedry.
  13. Sart
    Shqueeves, what the heck is this post? It sounds like you knew Joe would be the next murder victim, which is only possible if you are the Smedry. @Shqueeves would you mind responding to this?
  14. Sart
    Vote Count: The God King (5): A Joe in the Bush, Xinoehp, Straw, The God King, Kynedath Well, discussion has certainly died out. This is a big problem. From what I can tell, most people are suspecting The God King of being a second Crystal Knight. However, that means we still have at least a Smedry to deal with, and the possibility of another Crystal Knight. And that's all assuming that we're actually right about The God King being a Crystal Knight. Statistically speaking, that's not a good bet to make. However, statistics can be misleading. After all, we had worse odds to lynch a Crystal Knight Day 1, and we managed to beat the odds. It's also important to note that we might be on a wild goose chase. If Elkanah was the only Crystal Knight, which is still a possibility, jumping at shadows that aren't there will be a problem. So, in that light, I'm going to focus on looking for the Smedry. I think it's Experience, but that is purely gut read. I'm curious to know your thoughts on the matter.
  15. Sart
    Since the rules were changed to make the Crystal Knight conversion every other cycle, I suspect there's another Crystal Knight among us. Your vote nearly led to an arrest rather than a lynch. If I hadn't voted, this wouldn't have been such a huge win.
  16. Sart
    Well, in the interest of self-preservation, Elkanah, I guess. I understand Coda might have a lower activity play style than I would like, but I wasn't expecting that much backlash for the vote. I was trying to make a call to action, not a call to lynch me. Several people argued the lynch was strange, but now it's up to someone who posted their vote as a joke in the lead. I know Day 1 can be a bit chaotic, but this seems more chaotic than usual. I suppose that's to be expected when we write the rules ourselves, but we should hopefully be able to get something out of this.
  17. Sart
    Hmm... Codes... The Coder... Dakota... North Dakota... South Dakota... West Dakota... Coda! Obviously, guilt by word association is the worst kind of guilt. For more serious reasoning, I find it concerning that this is Coda's only post that's not encrypted. Agreeing with everything means standing for nothing. In the immortal words of Calvin Coolidge By saying nothing and spreading no suspicion, Coda is trying to avoid harm, like a suspicious Crystal Knight or Smedry might do. For that reason, I vote for you.
  18. Sart
    I'll sign up. I'd like to add some more roles to the party. Trouble Magnet: You were born unlucky, and trouble gravitates towards you. Once per cycle, target a player. If they are of a different alignment than you, both you and your target die. Gossiper: You've heard juicy secrets, and now you have to spill the beans. Once per cycle, create a temporary PM with yourself and as many other people as you want in it. This ignores the restriction on group PMs. The PM is closed at the end of the cycle.
  19. Sart
    Oh no. Tables, the enemy of lists! (If you got that reference, congratulations, you're an old timer.) I'm not inclined to vote for Shaney Boy ( @shanerockes ). No one's seen head or tail of him since Monday. (He hasn't been on the Shard since then) Let's not forget this game has an inactivity filter of two days. If he doesn't talk in the next three hours, he'll freeze to death in his room. There's no sense throwing out a walking corpse. Jester ( @Ironfire ) was seen 6 hours ago, so he's got no excuses. If he doesn't want to die, he'll have to come out and talk. Of course, if he's been active in PMs, he won't freeze to death tonight, but that will make him way more suspicious in my eyes. For right now it's not worth a vote. I am going to be voting on Rathmaskal. Mostly gut feeling if I'm being honest, but I wish I had voted for them instead of Striker last round. Today, they've been throwing out half suspicions, but they aren't voting for anyone, which makes me think they're an eliminator trying to guide the village to the wrong target without getting blood on their hands.
  20. Sart
    Captain Hindsight here with an important objection. We probably won't have any good reasons for voting on people. We can make logical guesses, but at the end of the day, they are just guesses. We might get lucky and have a Priest, but that's not something we can rely on. Even if all we have are gut feelings, that's enough to warrant a vote. Sometimes our gut is more accurate than we imagine. Even if our gut is wrong, voting helps suss out leads, and enables more analysis. So please, vote. We cannot win if everyone sits on the fence. To that end, we should discuss who we are voting for. The discussion today has centered around the possibility of the Followers not knowing each other. I've made my position clear, and believe that they either know each other, or have some way of learning each other's identities. The majority of the village appears to support that position. Lesa (DeTess) is the vocal minority, and is arguing that we should assume the Followers do not know each other. I wanted to kick Lesa out for this opinion, but my resolve wavers. If I were a Follower, I would follow the majority, rather than be part of the minority. Therefore, I am suspicious of Shien (StrikerEZ). They have made two posts on the subject, both favoring the majority, without adding anything else to the conversation. @StrikerEZ has been seen on the Shard today, but has not posted anything. For these reasons, my vote goes to him. I would also like to see more from @Rathmaskal, who has also been on the Shard, but hasn't posted.
  21. Sart
    Behold, I am here! I had forgotten the quick fixes are now on super time speed. Back in my day, the days and nights weren't combined, so we had 48 hour cycles for these games. It means I have even less time to make a decision. But behold, I have come to a conclusion. I am suspicious of Lesa (DeTess). Why, you may ask, my fellow citizens? Because, he is arguing that the followers do not know each other, and thus we cannot analyze lynch trains. To that, I say poppycock. Even if the Elims do not know each other to start, they probably can identify each other somehow, probably by some among them being priests! We do not know that the cultists know each other, but likewise, we also cannot assume the cultists do not know each other. Lesa has immediately jumped to a conclusion. i believe he is actually a cultist who does not know his fellow cultists, which is why he is so certain of his position.
  22. Sart
    So I was watching a let's play of a Japanese horror game, and realized that the death game featured in it is basically Mafia, with a couple of neat twists. So, I figure I should adapt the game into a game for us to play. Here is a link to the original game. Warning: The game is very bloody and gore filled. Viewer discretion is advised. Your Turn To Die (QF Edition): Synopsis: You have become trapped in an insane death game for unknown reasons. Will you survive long enough to escape, or will you be forced to betray the other participants? In the end, it all comes down to a majority vote. Basic Gameplay: The game is played in 48 hour cycles, broken up into two 24 hour phases. Every cycle, there is a 24 hour Nomination Phase, where candidates are selected, and a 24 hour Voting Phase, where one of the candidates is brutally killed. Everyone's win condition is the same: Escape the killing game. After a certain number of cycles (dependent on player count) all survivors will escape. At the start of every Cycle, the Roles will be redistributed among all living players. There are four Roles: Commoner, Keymaster, Sage, and Sacrifice There will be one Keymaster, Sage, and Sacrifice during each cycle. All other players will be Commoners. All voting during the game is anonymous. In your character PM, send the GM your vote. If you vote in the thread, it will be counted, but if you vote in thread, and have a different vote in your PM, the PM vote takes precedence. Phases: Nomination Phase: Vote for any player to be a candidate in the Voting Phase. At maximum, half of the living players, rounded down, will be selected as candidates. Players with the most votes will be selected as candidates first. If you have 0 votes, you will not be a candidate. Ties will be decided randomly. For instance, if A had 4 votes, B had 1 vote, C had 1 vote, D had 0 votes, and E had 0 votes, A would definitely be a candidate, and one of B or C would be another candidate. If A had all the votes, only A would be a candidate. Voting Phase: Vote for one candidate to brutally execute. Both candidates and non-candidates get to vote. Only candidates can be voted on. Non-candidates are safe. In the previous example, if B won the coin flip, only A and C would be eligible for the lynch. Roles: Commoner: Commoners have no special powers. If a Commoner is lynched, they die along with the Sacrifice. If two or more Commoners are tied for the lynch, the result will be decided randomly. Keymaster: If the Keymaster is lynched, all players die. If the Keymaster is tied for the lynch with any other role, all players die Sage: At the start of the Nomination phase, the Sage is told who the Keymaster is. The Sage cannot lie regarding the identity of the Keymaster. They can, of course, choose to keep silent about their information. If the Sage is lynched, they die along with the Sacrifice. If the Sage and a Commoner are tied for the lynch, the Sage will be lynched. Sacrifice: The Sacrifice is forced to betray the other participants in order to escape the killing game. If the Sacrifice is not lynched, they die. If the Sacrifice is lynched, they choose one other person. The Sacrifice and the person they chose escape the killing game, but all other players die. If the Sacrifice is tied with a Commoner or the Sage, the Sacrifice takes precedence. If the Sacrifice is tied with the Keymaster, the Keymaster takes precedence. The Sacrifice has two votes during the Nomination and Voting phases. They can divide them or put them on the same person.
  23. Sart
    Behold, Captain Late Sign-Up has arrived! With his powers of procrastination, he'll save the day... eventually.
  24. Sart
    Hold up, Xino is trying to hammer. Araris Valerian to Xinoehp512 If Xino is telling the truth, why would he vote with Araris Day 2, after scanning him as a Traitor? That's a blatant contradiction.
  25. Sart
    What? What? Okay, unless the Elims have the votes to win the game, this makes no sense. Xinoehp512 to Araris Valerian
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