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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    I think the Sacrifice would not cooperate here, so you’d have a 50% chance of killing almost everyone. Also, the statements have to be about the keymaster, not the sage, although that doesn’t change your point. I’m in as Arenta.
  2. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, I'm on break the next few days, so I might go through some of the old games (particularly QFs and MRs) and pick out some of the simpler rulesets that would be easy for GMs to run with fewer players.
  3. Araris Valerian
    I wish I'd stuck to my guns with you. @Ashbringer, thanks for GMing! The game was fun to play and to watch . Also looking forward to you running the LG!
  4. Araris Valerian
    I wonder if we should come up with a way to get a better flow of games when player/GM numbers are down for whatever reason. Maybe have a few premade simple rulesets in each format that people can run without giving up their place on the list (maybe for just the shorter formats, or it could work for LGs as well). It seems like right now we have the combination of a bunch of busy GMs + a bunch of GMs that want to wait to run their game until more players are available, and this will likely recur in the future around this time of year. We are getting games up eventually, but there is a lot more downtime than at least I would prefer.
  5. Araris Valerian
    I’d be decently happy to vote Chantara, but I prefer Drought. I’ll do my best to not cause any. Hope you heal up fast and can get some rest!
  6. Araris Valerian
    I suppose after Matrim and TUO's roleclaims, I'd prefer to vote out Drought or Chantara. Az and Tani would be the next two, but I'm still not sure what I think about the vote manip with regards to Tani. If Tani is elim and the vote manipper is elim, then nobody got converted last cycle. I would chalk the lack of a claim up to an elim, except @Tani hasn't been online for 16 hours and last posted Friday morning. And I'm going to just post this now, since both Kas and TUO have ninja'd me while I've been writing this.
  7. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, I see. Now I gotta decide if I want to stay on you as a possible convert or think about which of the quiet folks is secretly Sja.
  8. Araris Valerian
    A benign-ish explanation here is that Tani did the manipping. Doesn't explain the move to Illwei who also died though.
  9. Araris Valerian
    Well, reading C1 could help get an idea of who Sja might think would be a good convert.
  10. Araris Valerian
    Excepting that we have to take your word for that, so it could just as easily have been a ploy. I’m following Quinn’s school of thought here, which looks at votes and mostly ignores the reasoning given. You were happy to vote for me last cycle, rather than to try and engineer a new train (since Tani wasn’t going to die, and you didn’t want to vote Illwei). But this and/or any pocketing doesn’t really matter all that much. That was just me trying to make sense of how elim!you might have done those things. Also, if you aren’t Sja, I think you would have been a decent convert for either of the two previous cycles, since you have a strong presence in thread, but haven’t been suspected, and apparently also have a role.
  11. Araris Valerian
    I think I ended up revising that opinion by the end of the post but didn't say it, mostly because I'd hedged on the opinion in the first place. There's a lot of guesswork that goes into my suspicion of Drought, while my suspicion of Mat is mainly based on my reads of his posts and votes. I'd be perfectly happy voting either of them out, but then I also think Mat is a fair bit more likely to be Sja than Drought, so there is more value in voting him out.
  12. Araris Valerian
    Okay, so we know for certain that Sja converted C1, as that is the only way to have 3 deaths last turn. We also know that if Sja converted an unmade C1, that player will not have been able to use their role action. Might be helpful, might not. Then we can assume a couple of things as well. The first is that Sja wouldn't have converted Kas C1 (but could have C2), and the second, related thing, is that Sja converted someone C2. We also know for certain (or I do, at least) that Kas and Elandera are not Sja. Sja's number one priority during C1 would be to not get voted out, and thus lose 1-2 conversions. Every one else can afford to be a little less cautious. I'm going to hesitantly say that I don't actually think Tani or Xino is Sja. The reason being that they were both pretty bold about voting for me for something that could easily backfire and draw attention back to them. Their later vote switches also seem kind of erratic, and neither of them sticks out too me as going for gambits while elim. Illwei picked up on the same thing I think. Mat started off the cycle with a self-vote, and I could definitely see Sja-aMat doing this. It's a little risky, but it can scare away players that don't want to stack votes early in the turn, especially the sorts of players who tend to follow other players reasoning later in the cycle. Joining my votes on Tani could be an attempt at pocketing me, although this plays out weirdly, since apparently I was also one of Mat's strongest suspicions. He also has claimed to not be vanilla, and was adamant about defending himself. Having reread Drought's large post C2, I'm honestly unconvinced of village intent. A significant motivation behind doing a thread reread should be finding someone to vote on, IMO. But Drought is just sort of positive/neutral on everyone he talks about. Drought defends Kas, which could be Sja aiming for village cred if Kas flips. I do like the vote on Mat later on, given what I've read so far. From what little we have, I don't currently think Az is Sja. Placing a third vote on Kas without much justification is odd, and IMO doesn't fit with Sja. We hear a little from Chantara but not anything really helpful. Easy Sja hiding place. Really nothing from TUO or Mint/Squirrel. So my Sja list from high to low would probably be Mat, all of (Chantara, TUO, Squirrel), Az, Drought, Xino, Tani. The last ones there could flex a bit. In terms of converts, it's hard to say. Drought might be my strongest candidate for convert+Sja chance, under the assumption that the elims wouldn't covert someone who has been minimally active (I'd put Chantara, Squirrel, TUO here for sure, and maybe Az, Xino, and Tani). If Mat is Sja, then I wouldn't be surprised at a C2 Kas conversion. C1 conversions seem like Mat/Tani/Az and maybe Drought, just going off activity levels and our flips. If Sja is in the low-active group, then I would be entirely surprised if Elk was a conversion target C2, and I think TJ as well could be there. So there might not be a C2 convert due to deaths. If there is, I'd probably say that Drought/Chantara/Kas. Basically, I think Mat sort of fits everywhere as an elim, and Drought is probably overall second. And if we have a low-active Sja, there might still be just 2 elims.
  13. Araris Valerian
    Oh yeah. So the game shouldn't end this turn.
  14. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, huh. That means if we misexe and 2 night kills go through on villagers, the game will end. Assuming Sja made a second convert. If Sja did convert again, I'd guess 2 charges left, based on the unjustified guess that roughly 1/2 of the players are unmade. I'm going to reread the whole game tomorrow and get some reads out. I'll likely ignore Kas and Elan for the most part, since they aren't Sja, and that narrows the POE, despite them being decent conversion targets (well, debatable depending on how much porch-off-getting you can put up with from Kas ).
  15. Araris Valerian
    I scanned Elandera. She's not Sja, but I'm not sure about saying more right now.
  16. Araris Valerian
    I gotta go, I'm BAM and Kas isn't Sja.
  17. Araris Valerian
    Am I near the top for having done something, or not having done something? Is it because I'm Sja, or because after so many elim games in a row, I just don't remember how to village? Hopefully I'll see you after that.
  18. Araris Valerian
    Since I will shortly be going offline until the end of the cycle (I might be back in the last 5 minutes to save myself if necessary), I suppose I'll say that of the 4 people up to die today, in decreasing order I prefer to kill Tani, Illwei, Matrim, and lastly myself.
  19. Araris Valerian
    But voting for me doesn't really help you, because I can just self-preservation/retaliate on you. I hate it, but I shouldn't die here.
  20. Araris Valerian
    I somehow read this as Illwei’s original voting post and was very confused. The various exchanges with Illwei have made me lean towards agreeing with Kas; I already had different conclusions about the convert/kill decision than Illwei (which I mentioned briefly), and the point about coming from the POV of Sja being threatened fits with that difference. If it comes down to an Illwei/someone else vote at the end of the day, I’ll likely vote Illwei. But I’m going to chill on Tani for now. I haven’t really thought through how Sja!Kas might play the game, but I doubt he would a gambit like he would have had to do here, if only because it doesn’t mesh with quiet RP that well. Honestly, putting yourself in the spotlight D1 is a great way to end up dead fast, and Kas is generally a rational fellow (except when porches are involved), so that doesn’t really fit with him being elim (and probably not a great conversion target either, at least not yet).
  21. Araris Valerian
    I'd like another LG slot.
  22. Araris Valerian
    Okay, that makes sense. Thanks. Wishing I had a PM with you about now. @Dai-Gonarthis, @Envoy Spren, hook me up? (assuming Kas doesn't convince y'all to murder me)
  23. Araris Valerian
    I think I understand just about all of your post except the part where you are voting for me. No need to write another giant post, maybe just a sentence or two of clarification to help a bear of Very Little Brain out? My push this turn has been away from you and toward the low actives + Tani.
  24. Araris Valerian
    I'm impressed with Drought's post, and am happy to join Mat on Tani. I'm mildly opposed to killing Kas, at least for this turn.
  25. Araris Valerian
    Oh, bother. *scratches head* For some reason, I had thought I was climbing the honey tree in your front yard. Your porch seems rather taller and buzzier than most porches.
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