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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    Whoops! Thanks for pointing that out.
  2. Araris Valerian
    You have to show the Kandra stuff like that. RP-wise, they torture everything out of you. Hmm, I wasn't thinking that Morgan voted for Terra, seems like I should reconsider. Good job staying on top of who we know for certain is safe, although that number is going down pretty fast. I'm gonna put a vote on Popeye, since we can't really prove smoking, and if he was a smoker then the Kandra could still hide behind that rather than a vanilla.
  3. Araris Valerian
    Well, I'm the only one here right now. I'm gonna vote for Terra, partly since thats what I voted for on the last day and I'm out of touch, and partly becuase somebody needed to start conversation or we won't have a lynch today.
  4. Araris Valerian
    Thanks a lot for running this game! I was *that* close to surviving, but oh well.
  5. Araris Valerian
    Well. I think that what we should focus on now is that the primary reason everyone voted for Quitania is because she was a vanilla, which I think I was the first person to reveal. So, sorry Quitania because I said that with the intent of protecting you from suspicion.
  6. Araris Valerian
    Well, I think the reason that I haven't been brought up is largely because this game's voting has revolved around inactivity and poorly worded arguments, from how I've seen it. I just haven't been involved enough to make mistakes that anyone could pick up on. Current Actual vote tally: Aoran (1) Joe Ash (2) Ryfe, Araris Raze (0) Araris Ryfe (1) Tryel Based on this and Ash's last comment, which I don't quite understand, I'm gonna change to Ash. Only villagers can be viewers, and (I think) everyone has been online to see Maill's post. If anyone had seen that post then I also assume that they would remark about 2 glowsaps existing, especially what with the discussion that we have been having. I also assume that the eliminators haven't tried to confuse us about this since that would give us a 1/2 chance of guessing an eliminator instead of the 3/7 or 3/8 that we are dealing with right now. Anyway, now somebody is headed for death, so lets see votes from the 4 without so far.
  7. Araris Valerian
    "Everyone agrees on a target" is a bad thing. I am now looking at Raze with some suspicion based on the fact that he tried to downplay what Snipe was saying right before he died. I also think that I can refine my numbers that I posted above, since Willim is almost certainly a civilian, or else somebody would have brought up that they got the glowsap, at which point we would have a 50/50 chance to get a convict. Anywho, assuming Willim is innocent, then Joe and Aonar have a 1/5 chance each to be a convict, and the resulting probability everyone else is 13/25, which isn't as optimistic as I indicated earlier. Whoops! Edit: has anyone gotten any messages? I didn't send one, but if anyone did then that could be helpful. Edit: Green on Raze
  8. Araris Valerian
    I am now here, for another 5 hours or so before I go to sleep. The Convicts kinda stole my thunder, since Snipe was next on the list of people I was suspicious about. I never got an item, so I can't really help there. There are (probably) 2 convicts, 1 leader and 5 civilians. That means that both Joe and Aonar have 1/6 chances of being the leader (from 6 people left that would give a green with the glowsap). I'm gonna see if I can remember probabilities right now. In the event that one of Joe or Aonar is the Leader, which has a total of 1/3 chance, then each of the rest of us have a 2/6 or 1/3 chance to also be a convict. However, in the more likely 2/3 chance that they are both clean, then each of the rest of us has a 3/6 or 1/2 chance to be a baddie. Adding these up, we get: Joe and Aonar: 1/6 Everyone else: 4/9 So, IMO, unless we can find some serious evidence supporting a vote for either of those 2, then we should focus elsewhere. I have to eat ow, so I'll finish this analysis in a bit.
  9. Araris Valerian
    Well, I'm checking back in, and it doesn't seem like much has changed except someone disagrees with Snipe, which is an opinion that I think I am beginning to share. However, I am going to leave my vote on Joseph to keep the scales somewhat even between him and Navor, who I think are both decent candidates for tonight's lynch.
  10. Araris Valerian
    Well, yesterday was a different day and I was only on for a little, when I voted for Jain in bold and then for Luce. I never even realized that I got voted for until you just now pointed it out to me. I am also suspicious of Navor, and I put a real vote on him day 1 but that didn't go through. I would guess that one of Ash, Aonar and Kas is an eliminator, partly because of random chance and partly because it could be a strategy to confuse us villagers. I also think that one of Willim, Joseph and Navor is an eliminator. I am gonna vote for Joseph, since I didn't quite understand your reason for tying the vote In my opinion, tying is a good way to mess with the vote without seeming very attached to killing someone, and Aonar didn't really do anything that merited a vote yesterday.
  11. Araris Valerian
    I'm here, and if we were supposed to get a PM about rations then one didn't find its way to me. As far at the players that didn't vote, some of them might use that as an excuse to not be involved very much today after their initial vote, so some eliminators could go semi-inactive. I'm gonna put a real vote on Luce, partly for a response, partly because we have to lynch somebody and partly because I don't think the bold votes are really doing very much.
  12. Araris Valerian
    I get how the bolding is intended to be used, and already I see why colors are used for actual votes. Also, we don't really have anything to work with as far as planning stuff, and I missed that Jain had been called out already. Anywho, somebody needs to make the first "official vote, so I'm gonna go for Navor, mostly because he posted because of being called out. I don't know what other reason we can really give for voting for someone at this point except the timing of their posts.
  13. Araris Valerian
    Hey guys, I've been a little busy with school but now it's the weekend! I'll vote for bold: Jain since I want to see what panda tastes like. I can't really think of much to do as far as planning goes, but suspect this will not be much like the last mid range game.
  14. Araris Valerian
    Well, unless a lot of rioting and stuff happened then Quitania is the one that we took down.
  15. Araris Valerian
    Hmm, now that you mention it, Quitania having mentioned that she was vanilla would have made her a prime target for the Kandra to swap into, on top of the fact that she has been fairly inactive. That does assume that she was lying about her power, so think what you may about that. There are 15 of us, and 3 good ideas for targets. It would be nice if we could finish the cycle with 15 votes. If we are wrong about the target, the Kandra will probably switch again, and then we can work from who defended who and so forth. I'm gonna stick to Terra for now but if anyone has a good argument for anyone else or some info that hasn't been revealed yet, feel free to disagree with me.
  16. Araris Valerian
    Hmm, so I think I agree that the Kandra is likely now a politician. So maybe all of the politician could reveal if they have a power, and we can see what comes of that. Right now, I'm gonna vote for Terra. Quitania said that she was vanilla in the PM, Tulir has already spoken, and Alvron doesn't seem like he would have referred to himself in his messages to the group. That leaves Popeye and Terra, so take your pick. Satrams, you also seem a bit suspicious. We need to act on the info we have right now or the kandra can just jump bodies and we go back to where we started. The info we have is strongly suggestive of a polititian Tineye, which is where we should focus. Edit: Now that I think of it though, Quitania could be a Kandra, but again we stand to lose valuable info if we don't act on it right now, and Quitania is irrelevant to this particular day.
  17. Araris Valerian
    The main problem with that is we haven't confirmed that we actually have a soother. If they came out and said it then the next day the soother would get bodyswapped.
  18. Araris Valerian
    I think that I got soothed. I voted for Peng pretty early on and I don't see my vote there. Edit: Looks like it was just a mistake, now my vote is in
  19. Araris Valerian
    I'm in! Araris felt a hostile presence on the air as soon as he arrived. Good thing I brought an extra sword. Drawing upon the secrets of metalcrafting that only he and one other had mastered, Araris incorporated the steel of his second sword into his skin, creating a crystal lattice that only the most sturdy of forces could bypass. Despite the pain of the process, he was able gather his focus and shut out all discomfort. His next goal was to find a substantial amount of silver, which might be more effective at protecting his hide than metal skin.
  20. Araris Valerian
    Well, just for the sake of bringing it up, Peng was almost killed last cycle, so if I was a Kandra with his body then I would have left. Since Peng is still around, perhaps he is not a Kandra. That is just a side thought on my part, however, since Peng has been 100% inactive and really is not worth anything to the villagers right now.
  21. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, I was kinda trying to say that this mechanism allows the Set to verify 2 people very night if some people are willing to lose their powers, and if we think the risk is worth letting a Kandra grab up a spike if we're unlucky
  22. Araris Valerian
    I just had a thought: When the Set spikes somebody then we should learn 2 people that are not Kandra. Now, I don't think we all should know that Willa has my spike, although there is undoubtedly a kandra within the Set so that is probably better that we all know anyway. If each member of the Set in turn spikes one of us, assuming that some people are willing to lose their powers, then we can root out some Kandra by verifying each night that the Set members with spikes haven't been body-swapped through soothes and so forth.
  23. Araris Valerian
    Well, bugger. I was also confused about whether spikes killed, but now I can't RP and get metal skin Just for clarification, I wasn't trying to instigate a faction war. I was just worried that the Kandra could hide behind spiked powers and thus thought that the Set should be slightly higher priority in votes where we had no other relevant information. I guess, however, that spiking is a good way to confirm that people are safe. My personal opinion about the ironmind was that it mostly would be useful in the endgame to stop Kandra from having quite as much control over the lynch vote, so I don't really mind too much that it's gone, only that I had 2 charges stored up already that are lost. (Hmm, can someone tap aluminum to access my feruchemical charges? because if so, they are there waiting to be used wherever my body is laying)
  24. Araris Valerian
    I'm a bit confused, but it seems like everything worked out in the end. We turned a tie into a kill that verified somebody without them dying. I would like to point out that our entire method of verification is based upon power usage at this point, so I would HIGHLY recommend that the Set completely avoid spiking. If any Kandra got a hold of a spike then they would be very difficult to spot. I would like to reveal that I am an iron ferring, so assuming that I don'd die, at some point in the future I will be able to stack between 3-5 votes on one person depending on the round. This seems mostly like it would be useful for endgame votes when the Kandra represent a much larger percentage of the lynch crowd. At some point my lack of weight should make it into the writeup.
  25. Araris Valerian
    So basically it comes down to people need to say more stuff so when they get killed we have something to go after. I am going to continue my opinion that if we cant decide between people for lack of good info then we should err towards the Set, since spikes likely will help the Kandra more than us. Assuming that the Set are infiltrated, any spike they make can easily be stolen by the Kandra, while only letting us normal folks know about the infiltration. That being said, I'm gonna vote for Peng.
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