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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    My immediate thoughts are that Cadri might have revealed her metal in a house doc and the skaa decided to remove her because of her power. Also, the skaa might have that house infiltrated, which means that they can eliminate it without starting at the House Lord. I had thought Cat would be a target due to her house being the smallest with a power, but the skaa may be trying to set her up to get lynched so they can destroy the house power. Informant info: Nothing currently interesting, although it could be relevant for confirming other info.
  2. Araris Valerian
    It is possible that either Tonul rioted somebody, although doubtful because of what he said. It also could be that a soother just wanted something unimportant that they could give to the informant as a truth action.
  3. Araris Valerian
    I suspect the ska will go for Cat tonight since they only need a couple kills to finish off her house. Do you guys think that it is worth putting in some effort to stop her from dying? Of course, the skaa could also use the kill to implicate someone from today's conversation that is really innocent. Also, in the event that Cat does die, would it be worth it to lynch the new heir simply to preserve the power from a skaa kill?
  4. Araris Valerian
    I think lynching Racine is the best option right now, even though I suspect green: Ren the most among the people who gave info about her. Red: Racine
  5. Araris Valerian
    In the vote count you missed my vote for Ren, which is hard to see because I wrote it as red:Ren. Killing Cat right now is a really bad idea because we will lose her power from the skaa kill on the last Elariel. We should only vote for her if we get confirmation that she lied about what the informant told her. The skaa only needed one lie, the skaa alignment, and one other person to lie in chat about receiving a truth to create our situation.
  6. Araris Valerian
    RP wise, it wouldn't, since the death info comes from Inquisitor torture. So I doubt it. @Kas But if we lynch Cat then the skaa can kill the new lord/lady for certain and destroy the power.
  7. Araris Valerian
    One thing that we haven't addressed it the effect that a lynch could have on the house powers. If we lynch someone that we don't know the house of, they could be either the last unidentified person in house Elariel or a noble from house Asyr, both of which would help the skaa a lot. Right now it seems as if we are deciding between Cat and Racine. Killing Cat right now would make it certain that her house power is destroyed, since the skaa kill would happen next. I think we should only do that if we are certain she lied about her informant action.
  8. Araris Valerian
    Well, if 11-15 of us used the informant action (20-4/5 skaa and 1-4 house powers) then there are decent chances that at least one person got pulled up 3 times. Especially if they are in the same house and trying to verify allegiances. Unfortunately, we now have so many people involved in this discussion that the chances of guessing right are now 1:6 which is worse than a completely random guess. The worst scenario for us is that 3 or 4 skaa all told lies about Racine, which would lea to us lynching everyone involved without finding any skaa. The math says that this is fairly low, but if we can confirm that Lucat is telling the truth then we can't deny the possibility. I think red: Ren is the most suspicious right now because his claim has no way to be verified.
  9. Araris Valerian
    In response to Tulir's comment, which I think is fully justified, my plan of lynching a Lord/Lady was based on a faulty assumption that the new lord would not be revealed to the public, so all the members in the house would still be secret from the skaa. About Racine, we have a couple possibilities: 1) Somebody lied about the result of the informant action, which means only 1 skaa lie action needed to be used 2) Racine is a skaa, and used a kill action last night 3) 2 or more lies were fed to the informant and everyone has reported their results truthfully I think options 1 and 2 are the most likely, since option 3 has a 1/9 chance of all the informant actions giving different results. Option 2 is slightly more likely than 3 because there would be 4 pieces of info available; her metal, house, skaa and metal target. This doesn't apply if all 3-4 skaa that didn't kill someone put different lies in about Racine. I suspect that someone in the thread lied about the informant action, and only one of those isn't verifiable by anyone else. I am still going to withhold my vote, but Ren is my highest suspicion right now. If anyone has a possibility that I missed or different probabilities then feel free to correct me.
  10. Araris Valerian
    I see no reason to lynch her yet. Unless she put that in herself, which, as a skaa, would have been mostly pointless, there should be 2 results from using the informant on her, one true and one that she is skaa. Anyone else do the same thing but get a different result? Maybe Racine should tell us what she told the informant, since somebody probably saw it. Or, you are skaa and want us to reveal what we learned about Racine, to see if she is in a great house that is uninfiltrated and put that in her informant action. I personally found some information that seemed to indicate my house is clean, but it wouldn't mean much to people outside my doc.
  11. Araris Valerian
    Lets see if I can do some analysis behind the kill. 1) Random Person - I don't know why this would happen 2) The skaa learned within the house what the power was and i) Were in position to inherit or ii) Are going to kill 2 people and inherit 3) House is infiltrated but skaa don't know the power 4) The house is uninfiltrated and the skaa want it gone or at least to know all of the members So either Cat is skaa, her heir is skaa, or neither is. If 1/2 of the houses are infiltrated and that house has 3 people, that's a 1/2 of the first two combined and both are equally likely, although the skaa would probably be setting up one of themselves to die if they killed everyone else in the house. I suspect option 4 but 2i and 3 are also somewhat likely. Unfortunately Lady Quitania didn't really talk much so we don't have much to work with. Hadrian finished jotting down some notes and posted them on a wall, under the title Penrod's Perusings. He wondered, idly, if he could charge the other attendees, say, 5 boxings each to view his notes. Surely several of them would not last the week without some sort of outside help, although the animosity Hadrian had drawn last week might deter any potential customers.
  12. Araris Valerian
    I actually thought of something that could be an issue with the informants and the skaa. Since the House Lords probably will use ther powers instead of the informant action tonight, the skaa could ask about them and have a decent chance of discovering what their power is. They only have their metal and power as info that the skaa don't know, so if two skaa asked about 1 lord then that gives them a 3/4 chance of discovering the power. (assuming that their house can't be revealed since we all know that) Even if they are also a misting that "targets" someone then the skaa could still have decent odds if 3 asked about the same lord. Perhaps after tonight we should feed the informants some false info about the Lords so that the skaa can't discover house powers.
  13. Araris Valerian
    I am attempting to make an effort at studying some topics for the American science bowl this next year and was wondering if anyone knew of some particularly useful resources for self studying astronomy and meteorology that require little to no previous knowlege but cover a broad range of topics with decent depth. My school doesn't offer any earth science courses that are worth taking so if anyone has some experience with this sort of thing that would be great.
  14. Araris Valerian
    @Kassel I feel like you being a ferring is a better reason for the inquisitors hunting you down than being an Allomancer skaa. If you ever get lynched this game, tell the inquisitors that I would like a spike of my own when they are done with you. Who do you think the skaa are going to take down tonight? Once again I think that we can break it down into several options. 1) House Lord of infiltrated house Dangerous, because once only the skaa is left we can lynch him 2) House Lord of uninfiltrated house This mostly just removed the only person from that house that the skaa know the identity of, so it wouldn't help them that much 3) Random person from a non-skaa house Just as an attempt to lower the population of a great house 4) Pick someone that arguments were made against in the thread yesterday To hint towards some of us being skaa that really aren't If anyone thinks of any other possibilities, I would love to hear them. On a side note, if we run on the assumption that no house has 2 or more skaa, whenever we find a skaa should we ask for the identities of the remaining house members, since 1) the skaa already know that info and 2) based on that previous assumption, they are safe?
  15. Araris Valerian
    Hadrian wondered to himself if the High Lords had bribed some of the other noblemen to protect their assets. Surely even those in such powerful positions were not above his suspicions, regardless of the Lords' potential usefulness. The others didn't see that I the skaa killed on of the Lords and inherited his power, then that skaa could claim that the previous lord had destroyed his House's resources and hide his own deception. However, he now knew that this particular group of noblemen did not want to give any indication that they were being forced to work together, and would not push them quite as hard in the future. Now that the stress of the night was over, he decided that the week to come wouldn't be a total waste. "Ho, Ashboy! Come here for a minute. If you can fill all of these bags with a plentiful amount of ash tonight and hand them to me tomorrow on my way out, I'll let you have a clip for your work." Hadrian handed the boy several fist sized pouches and went to his room. These Luthadel nobility were far to subtle in their politicking, so maybe he could do something about that.
  16. Araris Valerian
    Well, I wasn't expecting to survive the night, but here I am. Based on the lynch votes there are 3 scenarios; 1) No skaa rioter 2) All 3 of us are skaa 3) Skaa are just waiting to get a free kill without revealing their powers How do you guys think that we can make the best use of the informants? The skaa will want to learn the identities of the people in the uninfiltrated Houses, and it will benefit us best to know the makeup of all the houses.
  17. Araris Valerian
    Oops
  18. Araris Valerian
    But don't we want that? If the skaa have a rioter we'll know, and if they just have a soother then nobody dies.
  19. Araris Valerian
    That's frustrating So I'll still vote Red: Meta and now I look really sneaky and suspicious. We have 3 with 2 votes and whoever doesn't get killed is probably gonna get lynched because the skaa didn't want them dead.
  20. Araris Valerian
    If you think it's best, we could do 3 people with 2 votes, since I doubt enough people will change votes at this time to get 3 with 3. Green: Meta
  21. Araris Valerian
    I am fine getting lynched as long as you guys feel that it will give us the most information. With that in mind, Green: Jain Red: Meta Now there is a 4-way tie so we stand to get some info from whoever the soothers and rioters choose to lynch.
  22. Araris Valerian
    I listed several plans. The idea of killing a house lord was based upon the idea that they are a known quantity, and that if they are not skaa, killing them has little or no difference than accidentally killing one of the nobles within that same house. If anyone wants to organize a system where 2-4 people are tied and we let the people with vote changing powers decide, that would give us some info about the skaa at the cost of most likely allowing them to get a certain double kill the first night. So my list of plans this night is expanded to 5: 1) Random person 2) Suspicions 3) House Lord 4) Allow vote- changers to decide 5) Me At this stage of the game, to me only options 3 and 4 seem useful. So, even if you think I should die tonight, I would also like to hear which of the other two option you prefer. Again, nobody else had listed strategies when I put up my suggestions, and killing a house Lord, in my opinion, is not too bad, unless everone agrees that a skaa is almost certainly not a Lord due to game balance. Lets take a look at my 3 scenarios. 1) Noble in penetrated house This is only really bad if the skaa inherits, otherwise it's just the same as killing a regular noble within the house 2) Noble in secret house Same as above, except the skaa won't know who to target to pass on/remove the power afterwards 3) Skaa This is somewhat unlikely but also would be very helpful, a skaa on night 1 and recapturing a House Power In summary, I want to avoid having a close vote unless we are specifically trying to use it do determine the allegiances of the vote-changers, and I feel that the next best option is a House Lord, partly because nobody has explained to me why any of my other choices are better. @Ash That's what I'm trying to prompt discussion about
  23. Araris Valerian
    So if I had not posted that idea, who would you have voted for? My goal is to list possibilities for us to make organized decisions, and nobody else has provided a reliable strategy of what to do this first day. On a side note, I am sad that posting a (potentially terrible) strategy has made me more of a target than people who have not made any contributions at all. Based on the first 48 hours of voting, this group likes contribution, and I have given more of my own personal thoughts on stragety then just about anyone except the people disagreeing with me. Another strategy we could try, if we want info about soothes and such, is to decide on 2-4 people that we could all tie, and just see how the soothes react. We would need to find a balance between how much information we stand to gain and how much leeway we want to give the skaa with controlling the vote.
  24. Araris Valerian
    But it was pointed out before that with as many vote changing roles as there are in this game, reaching a tie vote will be extremely difficult. If we don't take control of the lynch vote then a skaa soother/rioter will do it for us. The only information we have right now that is available to the whole group is who the Lords are. If we go by your assumption that none of the Lords are skaa, then doing a random lynch becomes closer to a 1/3-1/4 chance of killing a skaa. However, if you have access to any information that we should use as a group to decide a less than random lynch I would love to hear it. I will vote for whoever the group decides to kill, regardless of who it is, because I believe we should control the lynch on the first day. Unfortunately, killing anyone in a Great house, skaa or not, brings the skaa closer to gaining the power. A random lynch has a 2/11 chance of hitting a minor house, unless we reveal to everyone which houses we are in, which we already decided against. If anyone can show me how to stop the lynch then I support them completely, otherwise we should act in the small amount of info that we have.
  25. Araris Valerian
    On the topic of who we should actually vote for, there are 3 options. The first, is just pick someone at random and have a 1/4-1/5 chance of killing a skaa. The second is to kill someone based off of suspicions the whole group has access to in the thread. Unfortunately, at this stage that doesn't mean much more than a random kill. The last option is to kill one of the High Lords. There are three scenarios which would follow this choice. 1) The Lord is a noble in an uninfiltrated house. 2) The Lord is a noble in an infiltrated house. 3) The Lord is a skaa in an infiltrated house The question is, how bad are outcomes 1 and 2 and are they worth the risk for a possible #3 which would seriously cripple the current skaa capabilities. Also if we do choose to kill a Lord, should they come from the Great or semi-Great houses. In my personal opinion, killing a Lord this turn is the only action we can take that allows us to use a similar amount of information to the skaa. Given that killing a Lord of a full Great House would have only a 1/3 chance of passing the power to a skaa if the house was infiltrated, and has the added bonus of not leaving myself as an option, I believe we should go for a Lord. Any thoughts?
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