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Araris Valerian

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  1. Araris Valerian
    I am going to take a moment here for us to think about what is going on. Meta pointed out that if we lynch incorrectly here then we are down to 5-4, but I think, since we had 14 players, we lose 1 for wit, 3 for converts, 2 for last night and 2 for today and we end up at 6-4. That isn't too important, however, since it just means that another bad choice puts us at 4-4 which is basically good game. If Newan is an eliminator, then all is fine and dandy, although Hoid could convert Alvron and we might lose some ground there. If Newan is clean, then next cycle, at 6-4, we have to look at both Alvron and the person he claims to be in communication with. Making another bad choice between those two would pretty much end the game. Another possibility is that one of Alvron or the LB is converted, and Hoid grabs the other one up tonight and the two of them can both lead us on a wild goose chase after somebody to finish off the game. I'm not going to put out a vote yet for that issue. Ummm, Joe, you said we needed at least 2 votes to kill someone. So shouldn't Lucy still be alive?
  2. Araris Valerian
    I think that aside from doing nothing, the only real option was have to discuss is the mass role reveal. The advantage to something like that is that now we would force one of the converted to give some information about themselves, and make them choose whether to lie or not. However, mostly we are just in the same spot we were yesterday. One thing that we might consider is that Hoid could wait several cycles to use his last conversion, so somebody who actually was innocent would become an eliminator. However, that isn't super relevant as of now. I'm not going to vote for inactive right now, because it makes me uncomfortable when it happens to me and they will get that extra vote the next day regardless.
  3. Araris Valerian
    Spark decided that there was one last thing he could do. Walking up to the intercom he had found before this whole mess had started, he began to speak, hoping that at least one person among those who wanted him dead would pay enough attention to get the gist of his message. "Hey, I know all of you folks think I'm a Baron. And yesterday, you said that one of you can kill me. If you are really so sure that I would team up with a lunatic like that Alteredmind fellow then just get rid of me tonight. I'll go fall asleep right next to Kelsey, just so you know where to find me. If, after I'm dead, you still aren't free from the oppression of Epics, then at least you will be a couple steps closer to finding out who the real killer is amongst us. Good Night."
  4. Araris Valerian
    @Newan, that was my bad, I usually check for usernames or character names but not both. Its easier to keep track of some character names and some usernames so I tend to intermix them.
  5. Araris Valerian
    I think revealing roles might be a better idea after Hoid has used up some of his conversions so that we don't lose as many critical roles. There is a balance between losing good roles and having the knowledge of who the Converted are more likely to be. We could hold an official vote for a mass role reveal, and do it if over half of everyone thinks that it is a good idea. However, people with no roles are probably more likely to be targeted by lynches if the assumption that Hoid would claim no power is followed, and that would result in a fair amount of disagreement to the plan. Maybe, since Hoid can do vote changes, we should all just remove our votes from everyone for the rest of this cycle.
  6. Araris Valerian
    @Wyrm, those are good. points. The only way we could really find Hoid is through seeking or through looking at the daily votes, and since there is only one of him then that could be a struggle. However, once we take down all of the converted, he won't be able to kills us and we should have a pretty solid chance of finding him before we lynch all of ourselves. I think that I'm cool with no lynch today, since we will be twice as likely to get a hit tomorrow and people on our team can use powers and such as well.
  7. Araris Valerian
    I'm here, so if you want you can vote for me now that I've seen stuff. We really don't know anything, but I'll throw a vote on pirh2 just because he/she? tends to be fairly vocal and erratic. Edit: Greened vote, although you didn't really say much.
  8. Araris Valerian
    Well, you are right that there is nothing that I can do. Also, nobody is going to die tonight, so you guys should be able to pull this out anyways.
  9. Araris Valerian
    Like I said before, I'm still not sure what I said that made you think I'm a Baron. Kenna is the one who finalized the lynch, with Joe, who we know is a good guy, just stepping in for good measure. My vote was a tying vote that also saved my life, which was the primary purpose. I would at least like to know why you, Aonar, think that I am more guilty than Kenna.
  10. Araris Valerian
    I'm going to vote for Milton, since he should definitely be our priority to lynch today. I think we should put myself in one room and Kenna in the other, so that, assuming the last baron is one of the two of us, they will have to kill Kelsey to not reveal who they are. I propose for the rooms tonight: Armory: Spark and Aidan Barrack: Kenna and Friend or switching the rooms, but at least using those two groupings. Another option, again going with my assumption that either myself or Kenna is the last Baron after Milton, is to put Kenna and me in a room by ourselves, which would have the same effect of forcing a kill on Kelsey. One benefit to that last option is if both Kenna and I are somehow innocent then I would be able to learn that by scanning Kenna during the night.
  11. Araris Valerian
    Well, my main reasoning was that you were the person who put me in a position where I had to defend myself, and then turned that defense into an attack against Stanley. As to the room situation, I was more referring to the fact that Maill wanted something different than what was proposed. While isn't a very strong connection, my thinking was that Maill was trying to get us to disagree over the room situation so that the two barons could split up without being obvious. My reason for wanting different rooms was actually me wanting to be with a whole new set of people; I was with Stanley the night before.
  12. Araris Valerian
    Hello everyone. I'm a bit confused as to how everyone is 100% certain that I'm a Baron. The reason attention was drawn to me in the first place was because of what I said about Ash's plan. I found it really weird that anyone would go into the hallway for any reason. Then, last cycle, I used my vote to tie the vote and to point out a suspicion that I had about Theory, most notably that he had discussed his thoughts with me but not with anyone in the thread. Then Kenna changed off of me to Stanley, creating a 3-1 gap that almost guaranteed the lynch. One thing that I would like to point out is that Milton objected to the room arrangement last night. Given that he is a Baron, the only reason that I can see behind that is if the two Barons were both in the same room. Also, if Milton really can survive a lynch for one cycle, although that is questionable, then we might want to lynch the other baron today. I'm not going to vote just yet, but I think both Milton and Kenna are the two Barons. Edit: It would be nice if we could get Gamma to come on and give us his two cents fairly soon.
  13. Araris Valerian
    Well, the good news is that I will probably not be killed by the Barons tonight. The bad news is that the reason I suspect the Barons won't kill me tonight is that I think I will be the target of the next lynch.
  14. Araris Valerian
    Dangit. I thought the armory was where I was supposed to go. I'll switch to the barracks. Both are somewhat military terms and I didn't check when I sent in my message.
  15. Araris Valerian
    Dangit, I just typed up a long response to your post and it got toasted. Lets see what I can recall: As to your first point, my main goal was to stop a bandwagon, and now that we know Jasnah was an eliminator, the rest of the votes for Jain can be explained fairly well. One thing I don't quite get here is that you think Milton is innocent less guilty because of your disagreement with the seeker theory, but you voted for me (partially) because I also found fault with that argument. While my response was quick, the seeker theory mostly says that either Jain or Milton seeked Tulir and then killed him because Tulir was a seeker himself. That's pretty flimsy, IMO, to attempt to lynch 2 people over. I didn't like Ash being in the hallway because I really didn't see any point. All of the actions we saw in the OP for the game could be carried out as or more effectively from in a room as in the hallway. I never accused Ash of being a Baron, however, since I also didn't see any reason for them to stay in the hall as well. The only advantage that the hallway provides is inter-room PMs and, apparently, the usage of some items. I wasn't trying to get Ash to tell us her plan. I was however worried that the information she was using could be influenced by the Barons. My comments about the discussion in the night were intended to emphasize my confusion as to why she was in the hallway. Ash said that we should use her as a messenger, and I assumed that she was placing too much emphasis on the benefits of sending PMs at night. Now, I'm going to vote for Stanley, partly out of self-preservation and to prompt discussion since there is a 2-way tie now, but also because of the conversation that I had with him last night, where he gave a lot of suspicions that really could have come out in the thread, since info like that is what lets us judge who we think is an eliminator. I think that since he had enough time to come on here already, he could also have taken the time to copy-paste his post from the PM into this chat and let us think about what he has to say. Another problem that I have with the seeker theory that may or may not be relevant is that I myself am a seeker, which seems to me at least to lower the chances of another seeker existing on top of the serial killer. Also, I am signed up for the armory.
  16. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, apparently. I looked through the list of events and didn't see that, but I guess I just skimmed over it. Does anyone else have an opinion as to whether or not we should arrange the rooms differently from what Joe proposed? Unfortunately, due to the hallway working out as it has, Raid's master plan hasn't really done us any good so far, although if we had a doctor then most likely nobody would have died last night. Does anyone know how exactly Ash knew that Jasnah was a Baron? Because it seems clear to me that she understood what she was doing had a decent chance to end in her own death.
  17. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, but I was more talking about how after he got one vote right at the start 2 other people jumped on him right away. Also, the writeup shows me voting for Jasnah, which is a bit odd because I put my vote on Jain and then switched (or so I thought) to Kelsey. Perhaps Kelsey is a Smoothtalker or something. Anyway, I'm gonna vote for Gamma since he was involved in that and he's been laying low for a while. Edit: Greened Gamma
  18. Araris Valerian
    I think the greatest reason I had for being suspicious of Ash was that Ash was being suspicious. There was a plot going on that had a select number of people involved of which I was not one, so I felt a bit uncomfortable about that. I think I get what Ash was doing now, but originally I thought she might be in the hall to kill Kelsey or something. Anyway, why couldn't the plan be shared with the group if the baron kill happened after Ash's action, when sharing could have led to better protection of Ash. As far as the room arrangements, how about we switch me to someplace else since the room on the bottom keeps getting blown up, which makes "Sparky" a bit tense. I don't have a solid suspicion right now, but the main thing I've been thinking about was how the lynch of Jain went about happening.
  19. Araris Valerian
    I would like to sign up as Hadrian Penrod once again, he felt like those 17th shard folks were just a bit too serious and decided to see if he could have a little fun at their expense. "Anybody want a free pen? They are great for plotting when you have an expensive tablecloth to write on."
  20. Araris Valerian
    Well, one thing I am a bit confused about is why you would need to be in the hallway to use your role. As far as I can tell, the only actions that you can carry out are to either search the hallway or to use an item or something on Kelsey, which you could do from safely put away inside some other room. The problem that I see with your plan is that there isn't much point in communicating during the night when we can be much more open during the day. The only info that we have now to work with that we didn't during the day is the result of the lynch, and anything we do now will be without the info from the BB kill tonight. That's just my opinion, but I don't really think that it is worth leaving anybody in the hallway on purpose as of right now.
  21. Araris Valerian
    Well, I've been think for a while, and I think we should vote for Kelsey today. We don't have much to work with except a possible theory that Jain seeked the SK, and a partial bandwagon on Jain that never really happened. If Kelsey dies today, and is good, then the BB kill will give us some more info to work with tomorrow, without us risking the possibility of losing 2 active players.
  22. Araris Valerian
    My personal opinion is that if the BBs discovered who the SK was then they could just leave him to do whatever he wanted until he started to be a threat, then deal with him at their leisure. Us civilians only have to deal with 1/2 the eliminator kills now, which is pretty nice. That's just my two cents, but I really feel like a bandwagon almost got started which is not a good thing this early in the cycle.
  23. Araris Valerian
    I'm going to retract my vote on Jain, since he gave what I asked for. I'm kinda suspicious of you Joe, since that seems like a pretty flimsy suspicion to give somebody a third vote this early in the cycle. I'm also kind of suprised that Jasnah hasn't come on and voted yet based on her previous voting habits.
  24. Araris Valerian
    I just put in my room request, so that shouldn't happen again. If we assume that there are 3 BBs, then right now we are 8-3. Likely, a kill will happen in one of the 4-person rooms, unless we good up the room arrangements again tonight. I'm trying to think if there is any advantage for the BBs to stay in the hallway intentionally, but the only one that I can think of is if there is somebody else in the hallway they can make a kill without being discovered. But you could do that while safe in a room anyway, so I don't see why any of the BBs, especially if they are staying on top of the game, would end up in the cold at night. I'm going to vote for Jain, since he never came on to explain why he made it in the hallway, even the reasons that were given (including my own) we somewhat unoriginal.
  25. Araris Valerian
    Well... That ruins stuff for tonight. Nobody in my room actually went there, since I totally spaced that I needed to resend the message for that today. Unfortunately, that means one of us will likely die tonight.
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