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Araris Valerian

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  1. Araris Valerian
    Well, I kind of have 3 people that I suspect. One is Peng, but of the three killing him would give us the least amount of information. I don't really want to mention both of the other two, on the off chance that my suspicions are right about both of them. So I am going to vote on Mailliw. It's not really that he has done anything overtly suspicious, but reading back through the thread a few of his posts stuck out to me, particularly around the time when Macen and Bort were revealing things. My other suspect stuck out to me for similar reasons. If I have more time then I might try and do more of a detailed analysis later tonight. Edit: Removed Vote
  2. Araris Valerian
    I suspect that TLR was a bit too worn out to want to stick around as a shadow. He probably was ready to be done with the physical world.
  3. Araris Valerian
    Well, Reed was one of my options for college, and they sent me a copy of the Illiad for getting admitted. But money... So I am attending St. Olaf College in Minnesota and aiming for a chemistry major, potentially with one in math as well. I saw a lot more math than chemistry in high school, but I'm not too sure what I would do with a degree in math, or if I would enjoy something like that. Research sounds fun though.
  4. Araris Valerian
    Well, I am back, but I haven't really had time to do anything pertaining to this game, so I'm just going to confirm my vote on eramit is my intention for the lynch today.
  5. Araris Valerian
    Kipper, this is when everyone goes on their summer vacation. It makes a little sense people are inactive. I am going to put a tentative vote on eramit, because based on the activity from today's thread alone he seems to be the most suspect. I also agree with the suspicion of Joe, but I will need to go back and find all of his contributions. There is a list of my current suspect pool, but I can't access it right now, so later tonight I might update my vote depending on if eramit is on that list.
  6. Araris Valerian
    @Wilson: Yay for vacation! Same here! Action 1: Who: Cienthe Penrod, as House Lady What: Marrying Valeri to Araris, one of the noble mistborn within House Penrod Where: Keep Penrod When: First Action Why: Araris was raised to respect the philosophy of the Penrod's and no other house offered to allow their child to be raised in such a way. Also, extensive genealogies show that Araris has a strong connection to the original mistborn. Action 2: Who: Varun, as House Scribe and Arandar, as House Lord What: Writing a philosophy book about the rights of men Where: Keep Scriptorium When: Second Action Why: To persuade other houses to treat their ska better Action 3: Who: Arandar, as House Lord What: Fixing up the Imperial Archive to better accommodate the new official records it has to take on Where: Imperial Archive When: Third action Why: The Archive was not doing very much before; it only brought a little income with no side effects. Now it actually is part of official Empire business
  7. Araris Valerian
    Arandar pondered the invitation from House Urbain. It seemed that his knack for delivering potatoes wasn't quite as sharp as Hadrian's had been.
  8. Araris Valerian
    It appears that Atium is now available, at least to one person. Although it could be aluminum or something else, but I would guess Atium. I'm still looking for someone to marry Valeri and I could give a good deal on dueling canes as a part of the contract.
  9. Araris Valerian
    Well, I will vote for Renegade. That seems pretty cut and dried. However, we could have a sort of pseudo lynch vote with like purple and orange text, and then if anyone has a kill action then they could attack that person. It would mean that the daytime discussion would actually have a point to it on top of the basic lynch. I will try to contribute a bit more later but I have some work to do for a few hours right now.
  10. Araris Valerian
    I would have to disagree, as the second person to suspect (or voice suspicion of) you this cycle. Your initial posts at the start of the cycle were suspect, and while you have tried to explain them, people aren't that convinced. (Or they are so desperate for a lynch that they are ignoring your newer posts, but I doubt this). The math explanation was good, but IMO you shouldn't really have been able to draw very many conclusions from it because a 1/4 chance is not much better than the standard 1/5 Eliminator ratio. Also, the thing about your last statement is that Probably is all anyone ever says in this game, unless we have a scan role that has been confirmed to be good.
  11. Araris Valerian
    Well Macen, the problem with your math is that I don't think you can break down probability like that. I'll do it for myself and then explain why. So we have 25 players left, and I will assume 6 eliminators, although it could be 5 or 7 as well. So there is a .24 chance any player is an eliminator by now. If we pick 4 at random, the chances of getting no eliminators is .76^4 or about .3336. But the average number of eliminators is 4(.24) or .96 The problem with your math is you are taking a subset of the group and assuming that they have a different ratio of eliminators than the overall group. But 1 eliminator in the 4 is a .25 chance, versus .24, so killing one of the four doesn't stand to help us much. If there are only 5 then the numbers come out to: Chance of 0 eliminators in PM=.8^4 or .4096 Average number of eliminators in the PM = .8 But the point of this is that if we take lots of random samples of this group with four people, on average the proportion of Diagramists is the same as the overall population. So by math alone we can't use this information at all. We need some sort of extra bit of info. Bort being dead contributes a bit to that, but I don't think it changes the numbers enough to focus a lynch on one of those four people exclusively. Edit: For clarification, I made some assumptions about what Macen was implying but the main point I was trying to get across is the stuff in the last paragraph, not that Macen was doing bad math.
  12. Araris Valerian
    I agree with all of the above. I really appreciate the time you took to GM this game, especially because of your RL conflicts. Thank you for everything you did and I hope to kill you sometime soon .
  13. Araris Valerian
    I think my vote is going on Macen this cycle. His first post about taking out people that were in PMs stuck out to me quite a bit. It seems to me with his last post about probability that he is trying to sit on the fence, as far as killing one of the four people discussion has currently been focused on. And somebody else brought his name up, but didn't stick with a vote because he is active, so perhaps people should consider him as a lynch target.
  14. Araris Valerian
    Um, Comatose? I don't think your reaction to the games is one of your three actions. I'm not sure how doing something like refreshments factors in, but you might be able to get away with still not spending an action.
  15. Araris Valerian
    Well, I'll be darned. We still have 24 hours to discuss things. My head clock is all goofed up right now, sorry folks. My last post was geared towards finding a lynch right away, and since we have a whole day left, the focus on a couple people seems to have halted discussion a bit (not that there was much already). The current vote tally is 4 for both PK and Leift (well, until I made this post, now PK has only 3). My vote retraction means that Leift is currently up for the lynch, but I'm not sure where I actually want my vote to be. Again, to clarify, I made my last post thinking that the end of the cycle was eminent.
  16. Araris Valerian
    Wow, this cycle has been going longer than I thought. It seems that we need a lynch, since so far we have had 2 eliminator kills and we haven't made much headway with roles and whatnot. I suspect Macen, Leif and PK right now, along with Peng, although I don't think he is worth chasing right now due to inactivity. Perhaps a scan or something would be useful on him. Anyway, I am suspicious of Macen because his post this cycle suggests that we should go after the PMed people with the lynch, and he implied that at least one was an eliminator, possibly more. That sounds like it could be a ploy to put the lynch off track for several cycles, and if Macen is an eliminator then he would know all four of those people's alignment. Leif is suspicious because of the reasons that others mentioned in the thread; his posts seemed to deflect attention from himself and onto the other three. However, this isn't really compatible with my suspicion of Macen since it is unlikely that an eliminator would suggest and idea that could lead to scanning and/or lynching of one of their other members. And PK is suspicious because he is inactive. It could be that he, as an eliminator, doesn't want to entangle team members in a defense, like Winter did in the last LG by surrendering. I would rather lynch Macen or Leif, since we would learn a bit more from killing somebody who has given some concrete info, but we also would risk losing an important contributor to discussion. Edit: Greened Vote
  17. Araris Valerian
    Cienthe gazed down at Valeri, her daughter, who snored gently in bed. Such a small person, yet she could very well be the future scion of House Penrod. It's strange how quickly I changed to thinking of Penrod as my own House. But I feel like we have a real vision of how the world can change for the better. My family hasn't kept in contact, and the work here on the histories is immersive, in the least. I can see that we can't settle for what this world gives us, or it's beauty will continue to leak away. She turned towards Arandar. "It's a bit of a shame, you know. How our parents might be some of the last in all of the nobility to have developed feelings for there partners before their marriage. Your father seemed to have a bit of insight arranging our union, but a bad match could set our future generations reeling for centuries. Valeri needs something better than that." Arandar had been wrestling with the same issue in his mind ever since his wife had gotten pregnant. Despite the healthy relationship they had now, he and Cienthe had been thrown into a whirlwind of change that could have been disastrous. "I agree. If all else fails, some of the minor lords that serve our house have children being raised properly. That's the real problem, you see. Children growing up in other keeps won't respect the skaa as people, since they have no reason to. If the Lord Ruler decrees them worthless, and every skaa you see can't spell his own name, how could a child see them as equals?" The Lord Ruler was the real problem. The skaa were different than the nobility. Perhaps not inferior, but definitely different, and the Lord Ruler's will relegated them to fieldwork across the world. Despite his best efforts, a skaa would never come to a position of power in House Penrod, or He would interfere. And that would end all of Arandar's efforts in their entirety. Cienthe smiled a bit. "Well, that isn't too hard of a problem to solve. We just need to offer to raise another House's child here. If we can get one early enough, then we can drive home our philosophies about the skaa and nobility. Not to mention that it would be nice to have two mistborn children running around the keep, rather than one, since they could develop their abilities together." So, basically I'm looking for a marriage contract that brings a son into my family so that I can raise the two children together and let them develop a relationship and stuff. And I have a sheep farm that I am willing to dedicate long-term shipments of potentially as part of the deal. (Since it would save me an extra action for doing 2 separate contracts)
  18. Araris Valerian
    I think I agree with twelfth here. What Meta was disagreeing with was a vote that went away at any sign of activity at all. Twelfth is saying, "be helpful or die or something." (basically) While I think my vote is currently most useful where it is now, causing Peng to get lynched, I am a bit curious why you came on to post about Twelfth's habits but didn't make a vote or add anything else to discussion. Poke voting is always a topic that gets discussed, but it never really changes anybody's mind.
  19. Araris Valerian
    Well, there are a lot of people that aren't discussing anything. I am serious behind my vote on Peng; I think that he would be a good lynch target based on how he behaved in the first cycle. So I am not going to move my vote, but I do think that perhaps if we could get a second vote on him then at least the village would be doing something rather than waiting for roles and such to be sorted out.
  20. Araris Valerian
    "My dear wife?" "Yes, Arandar?" "Why do these cards of congratulation mention a 'Valerun' Penrod? We have a wonderful child, but her name is Valeri." "It's the government. When they were collecting papers for an official record of Vareri, someone must have spelled something wrong. They don't seem very efficient, the Luthadel scribes." Arandar pondered this for a bit. "Well, we probably could help out. I'm not too sure what our next venture should be, and we have a lovely Scriptorium in the keep that would be great for transferring records. I'm sure at some point the Lord Ruler will step in before the records deteriorate too far, but it might be beneficial to our house to have had a hand in all that. I'll go complain to whoever is trying to keep all this organized about Valeri's name and use that as a position to argue that our House should be able to take on some of the burden."
  21. Araris Valerian
    Well, so far we don't have too much to go on as far as discussion. As far as Meta is concerned, I remember a few people involved with him. Jain: Poked Meta Peng: Voted on Jain to support Meta Araris (Me): Voted on Peng because his reasoning seemed a bit slim and he made an actual lynch threat with his vote There might have been more, but I'm on mobile and it's a pain to flip between threads. Anyway, I'm gonna vote on Peng again, since I don't remember getting a response last cycle and he is still a suspect in my mind. I realize he said he would be inactive, but I'm fine having to wait a while to hear back. As far as lynch discussion goes he is my largest suspect.
  22. Araris Valerian
    Alvron, Seonid and I have already met our win condition. Actually, there isn't much we can do about ourselves winning, because the only people that can make us lose are against our faction anyways. That being said, if anyone bribes me then I will betray the new faction to everyone in a righteous fury. But you guys can kill everyone and Seonid and I still win, since our win condition doesn't require us to be alive. My first loyalty has to be to Glory, because they United me with my sibling for all eternity, but I don't have anything against helping Discovery take down other groups.
  23. Araris Valerian
    Hey Alvron, my win condition isn't necessarily tied to my faction. I don't see why we can't both win this game.
  24. Araris Valerian
    Don't see him in there.
  25. Araris Valerian
    I'm here, and I've been watching, but I don't really know what to do.
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