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Araris Valerian

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Everything posted by Araris Valerian

  1. Araris Valerian
    I'm in favor of the Books lynch (although hopefully we get more interaction with him than we did with Ventyl last cycle). I think that Lotus and Books are probably v/e (in some order), based on the D2 lynch. I think it's pretty risky to have the only two votes on a player both be elims, but I also think that both Lotus and Books have suspicious voting patterns in relation to Ventyl. Lotus is lower priority because of the D4 lynch. I somewhat suspect that Ventyl was the only elim to vote D4 (pending on Books/Lotus). It's possible that Eternum is elim, due to the vote on Jester D4. He didn't respond to Fura's analysis post with two strong elim reads, and I'm not sure what to make of that. However, this happened before the swing onto Ventyl really took off, and later changing to vote on Ventyl wouldn't have meant anything. I think that the elims would be more prone to hold off from voting last cycle, and if Books is elim, then the same again this cycle. So that's where I want to look next. Hopefully we can get a bit more participation in the lynch this cycle than the last one. Now is the best time to vote, so we can have discussion rather than a bunch of last minute swings.
  2. Araris Valerian
    Welcome @Vapor and @Whysper! I'm happy to PM if you need help catching up. Also, the Neutral players have really had it rough this game.
  3. Araris Valerian
    I think it’s a bit hard to say what we actually learn from this lynch, since there wasn’t really an alternative. I do have a rather strong village read on Connie though at this point. Fura has solidified as village in my mind, and mostly Lotus and Alv as well. I can’t see much reason for an elim to bus Szeth holding a Progression blade, even though a Ventyl lynch seemed to be possible for quite a while. It’s unfortunate that Ventyl wasn’t around, because he might have drawn in some teammates while defending himself. I don’t think anyone who voted looks particularly suspicious, so I’ll have to do some rereading for player interactions with Ventyl.
  4. Araris Valerian
    Connie. Hmm, I seem to have arrived late to the party, but I definitely agree with the suspicion on Ventyl. I’m actually reading Connie as a bit more village based on this lynch anyways.
  5. Araris Valerian
    You know, since I'm village and all, I also wouldn't mind if the Shaman contacted me. Although I'd have to kill you immediately afterwards for the sake of PM safety .
  6. Araris Valerian
    Vote Tally: Fura (2): Mist, Ventyl Connie (1): Araris For comparison, there are 17 players still alive. The elims aren’t going to find themselves, you know. If everyone waits till the last 3 hours of the cycle to place a vote, then we don’t get very good discussion.
  7. Araris Valerian
    Hmm. Well, that doesn't exactly answer the question of why neutral!Matrim would want Connie to not get lynched. He wasn't in any danger of getting lynched himself, and the only thing I can think of is some shenanigans with that Blade. Edit: The elims almost certainly don't have Chanarach (since they would be getting kills), but they could have Vedel (and could have passed it to Kal/Szeth, but I doubt Szeth).
  8. Araris Valerian
    Well, since we are all about being honest in these games, I'll just have to take your word for it.
  9. Araris Valerian
    Since Connie was "cleared" by PM reasons from Matrim, and Matrim wasn't village, that means Connie is no longer safe, so far as I can tell. I'm happy to discuss my analysis with anyone, and I would guess that Matrim made some kind of deal with Connie for the honorblade, which is why he didn't want us to lynch her. Based on the lynch last cycle, I am also suspicious of Lotus. Ventyl is still on my radar from previously.
  10. Araris Valerian
    Otherwise, the Spy could just claim, since nobody would be incentivized to kill them.
  11. Araris Valerian
    My vote is on Lotus. I'm just uncomfortable that as soon as I vote on Lotus, she's willing to jump on the other person I've mentioned.
  12. Araris Valerian
    We have no evidence that anyone is an elim at this point. You made a post that I find suspicious, so I'm voting for you. I'd be able to get more suspicions if more people were actually contributing to the game.
  13. Araris Valerian
    This doesn't make me want to vote for Ventyl.
  14. Araris Valerian
    I guess I'll switch from Connie to Lotus. I'd also be okay with a Ventyl lynch, but I think we could get more discussion on that front, and people aren't really speaking up right now. I think the elims are lying low, since there hasn't been anything to super implicate anyone. Lotus has posted this cycle but hasn't actually contributed.
  15. Araris Valerian
    Vote Tally: Fura (3): Matrim, Connie, Vasher Connie (3): Fura, Araris, STINK, Quinn Devotary (1): Alvron Quinn (0): STINK This is pretty embarrassing. 7 votes and only 4 hours left in the cycle. I don't like the Fura lynch, and right now the alternative is Connie.
  16. Araris Valerian
    Lots of people have said this, and none of them gave any reasoning. So I'm not convinced.
  17. Araris Valerian
    Umm, yeah. I do that too often when I work from posts instead of the player list.
  18. Araris Valerian
    Matrim is obviously village, and I've got a village read on STINK as well. It's sort of hard to tell with him, but I think his voting patterns are consistent with his village self. The next bit is on Connie, and I've spoilered it because it's got a lot of quotes. So overall I stand by my suspicion on Connie. If Connie is elim, then I'd guess that 1-2 of the other votes on Danex are elim as well. Honestly, I'd pick out Alvron as the most suspicious. He had a great excuse to vote Danex, and would probably be where I looked next if Connie flipped elim. This post by Quinn seems pretty village to me. I can't think of a situation where an elim would want to post this. This post by Experience makes me think he's village as well. It's not too much, but I doubt an elim would post this Fura posted this, which is the sort of thing I like to see (even if it isn't necessarily AI for Fura): I'm also going to stand by my suspicion of Ventyl. So the TLDR is: Village Matrim STINK Experience (flip from my previous read) Fura Quinn Elim Connie -> Alvron Ventyl Post More Everyone else
  19. Araris Valerian
    Well, I'm slightly biased, since I haven't played a game with Fura in a long time, but I don't read him as elim. I'm wary of all the PM stuff going around, and I'm still not entirely sure that we shouldn't lynch Ventyl. I'll try and do a comprehensive analysis post before the end of a cycle with a better vote in it, but I'll put a placeholder on Connie/Grammar right now (mostly as an info lynch, and this probably won't be my final vote, pending on my analysis).
  20. Araris Valerian
    And they were all villagers .
  21. Araris Valerian
    Good game to everyone! I said in the elim doc, but Gears and Archer mostly carried our team this game, and I was particularly impressed with Archer. I also remembered how brutally fast QF games are, so I probably won't play another one until it's been a year or so and I've forgotten this one . I liked the kill mechanic (and the part where people got to live longer, especially with no N1 kill), and it reminded me of a role I had in a previous game. I think that was a Reckoners themed game where I blew people up, but it's been a while. Many thanks to Straw for GMing!
  22. Araris Valerian
    Well, there’s myself, Archer (who I’ve decided to trust), and Elandera, who flipped village. So no, the elims can’t have voted for you.
  23. Araris Valerian
    Well, I guess I think Archer is village. Since between 1 and 3 elims voted last cycle (everyone voted except the two inactives), it follows that some elims voted for Elandera, so the elims preferred Condensation to be alive. For that reason, I’ll vote for Condensation.
  24. Araris Valerian
    Given that there are only 5 villagers left, I'd be pretty skeptical of any lynch that managed to get 6 votes on it.
  25. Araris Valerian
    That was a greatly fun game and I have no regrets about my decision to help the elims as a Neutral. Although my ability to do that hinged upon other players misunderstanding something that caused them to clear me as a villager. Fortunately the game ended before the village could get revenge on me.
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