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Araris Valerian

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  1. Araris Valerian
    Yeah, that was a contributing factor to us killing you rather than letting you live. We didn't want to confirm you as village, but you were also a dominating force in the thread and probably would have gotten me killed the next day if we had let you live. Illwei was winging it and unfortunately picked something that incriminated me a bunch.
  2. Araris Valerian
    An excellent writeup to end an excellent game. @Kasimir, you are an amazing GM, and this game did not disappoint. I'll post more in-depth thoughts on the game later. I also have to say that my team was awesome. It's been a while since I've been an elim on a full team of active, engaged players, and it really makes a big difference, both in how much crazy scheming you can do, but also in just chatting and so forth as well. Edit: Where is the link to the spec doc? The one that was posted is just Kas and Wyrm chatting
  3. Araris Valerian
    The next name on Arenta’s ledger was Joe (Shard of Reading). Another day, another unpaid debt settled.
  4. Araris Valerian
    "I get this nagging feeling that people think I'm a Spiked. Come on, all I did was whack someone with my rolling pin, and he definitely deserved it. Besides, the Spiked and the Koloss aren't real anyways, so how would I be one? I'm just trying to keep some of the sensible folk left in this town alive."
  5. Araris Valerian
    Stick. Connie.
  6. Araris Valerian
    What? Trust? Since when was that a part of SE? Tani, Mailliw, Kas?
  7. Araris Valerian
    In order, Stick, SoR, TJ.
  8. Araris Valerian
    My greatest suspicion is currently Stick. I'll post explanation later when I have more time.
  9. Araris Valerian
    Who do you consider active that isn't in this group (aside from yourself)? I can only think of TJ. I voted for Gears because I thought the uncontested Mailliw train was unhelpful, and I also thought it likely that regardless of Mailliw's alignment, an elim would have been one of the voters after you and Illwei. Gears showed up first in the player list, and following my ISO I was comfortable voting him. Didn't have enough time to ISO the other two. Can you honestly say you would have preferred me to not vote and have a 1 page thread with 5 votes on Mailliw?
  10. Araris Valerian
    Guilty as charged .
  11. Araris Valerian
    You and Mat don't make up the majority of players that are voting Mailliw (and no, I haven't).
  12. Araris Valerian
    Honestly, I've been trying to figure that out myself, but there are 40 pages of backlog to go through, and it's kind of a pain. Doesn't help that the forum doesn't have an ISO feature. Right now most everyone wants to murder Mailliw for being nice and wanting to swap roles (and being the close alternative to Quinn last cycle). I don't really have any suspicion of Mailliw (although, as mentioned, I haven't really gone back through everything), but I know that he and I used to clash a fair amount, in the same way that Kas and I did. He has a totally different approach to roleclaiming in PMs from me. However, I think Mailliw actually has a better grasp on PM safety than a lot of the other current players, and I have come to respect his playstyle for being just as effective as mine. I did pseudo ISOs of Gears and Matrim, which I'll put below. For now I'm going to vote on Gears, largely because his defensive play this game is something that is easier to do as an elim (or at least being aggressive is harder as an elim, because you can't actually suspect anyone). It also seems inconsistent with his vote on Mailliw this cycle. Matrim: Gears: I'll also point out that we are basically toast if we don't find an elim this cycle or next (more so if the elims have a Mistborn that rolls Steel). For that reason, I don't think it makes sense to just pick up right where we left off last cycle. There's too much risk of that leading into a couple of misgrinches and game end. Regardless of who we actually vote out this cycle, a bunch of one-liner votes with no reasoning and a lack of alternatives just doesn't help us that much. I guess it's also worth thinking about the profile of the elim team. They basically are guaranteed to have a Seeker. I'd guess at a Mistborn as well that rolled Bronze, since hitting 2 village power roles in 2 turns seems rather improbable. The elim team would have wanted to scan Bard and Bip, and they killed Randby. So overall their focus has been on less active players. That suggests that they haven't felt too threatened by anyone in the thread having a lot of village cred. So the elims are likely either comfortable with how the discussion in thread has been going, or they have enough players actively engaged in it that they feel like they can control it on their own. Either way, the focus on less active players makes me think we need to broaden our suspicions. And this whole post might be super rambling and incohesive. I haven't really read over any of this, so hopefully it makes sense.
  13. Araris Valerian
    Arenta had piled all of her ledgers on her desk, and was looking through them, jotting down notes on sheets labelled with the various names of the townsfolk. Certainly after 3 days and nights of this chaos there was enough information to sort out the identities of the troublemakers. I'm working on a pseudo-ISO of everyone, hopefully I'll have that up by sometime today.
  14. Araris Valerian
    No, since Kas is rolling a d10 and rerolling on 9 and 10 as well. Thus Tani has a 4/10 chance of getting a reroll (9, 10, Steel, Pewter), followed by a 1/8 chance of Steel, for a 1/20 chance.
  15. Araris Valerian
    "Now hold on just a moment young miss!" Arenta glared across the street at Tesse, who had just finished accusing Arenta and several of her tenants of being Spiked. "For starters, there aren't any spiked in this here town. Why in the Lord Ruler's name would someone stab themselves with a spike? No, what we have here is just common people making common trouble. False accusations and misinformation is the game they're playing. And I think it's just possible you might be mixed up in it as well!" Arenta jabbed a bony finger at Tessa before continuing. "On a totally unrelated note, I believe you are behind on the payments for your shop." Arenta fished around in her pack for a ledger and began leafing through it. After a few moments she glared at the paper, and then back at Tessa. "Hmph. Guess you are caught up after all." After a moment's hard think, a smile touched the corner of Arenta's lips. "Of course, you did just admit to consorting with Marl, Sunny, and Daux on tpoics including the discussion of Allomatic abilities and the ruthless murder of one of my... less reliable tenants." She rooted in her bag for a rumpled form and gestured to the text on it. "According to this here, you owe me an additional 10% on your rent, effective retroactively, plus you've inherited an equal share of Shard's debt, which was quite substantial." The smile broadened into a crooked, slightly sinister grin. "You now owe an additional 47 boxings and 7 clips. Perhaps you should consider paying more respect to your elders, especially when you're indebted to them by this much." With that said, Arenta began to head back home as fast as her old bones could handle.
  16. Araris Valerian
    Not quite. It more has to do with the statements like "elims won't do X". And my main objection is that elims will do X, precisely to take advantage of village assumptions. Basically the same thing Mailliw is saying. With regards to what you find suspicious about me, I think you are sort of forcing my behavior into a box that fits what you consider an elim profile, when I haven't actually done what you describe. I'm not sure I've done a great job of contributing to the discussion this game (largely due to RL stuff), but what I have given is an honest attempt to find elims.
  17. Araris Valerian
    My vote wasn't a poke vote. It was a Stab(TM) Vote, intended to carry with it the extreme threat of lethality. And while normally I don't keep my first vote for the whole cycle, if in every game every player eventually changes their first vote, then what was the point of making that vote in the first place? Yeah, people might claim to be reacting to it, but if there wasn't any actual pressure, then the reaction could just as easily be fake (I often ignore C1 votes on myself for this reason). I did come back later in the cycle to mention that I had considered moving my vote, but felt it was in a good spot, since other people had joined me. Why change my vote when it's gaining momentum and the original reasoning is still valid? I guess anther thing here is that I don't think you can make sweeping statements like this regardless. If "villagers don't do X thing" is true, and elims are trying to imitate villagers, then it follows that "elims also won't do X thing" is likely true as well. I would instead say something along the lines of "elims have less motivation to reconsider their positions mid-cycle". Okay, thanks for clarifying, since I don't think this really came through in your original post. Although I'm not quite sure how you settle on a suspicion of me without this. That's not what I was trying to do here. Rather, your original post that I disliked has like 2 sentences on me, and yet concludes with me in your top 3 list. You've explained your reasoning on me better now (see below, although I don't agree with it), but I originally just read you having me not be e/e with Ash and Reading, and didn't see how that led to the conclusion of me being elim. I appreciate your clarification here. I'd again like to emphasize that I don't do poke votes, and that all of my votes have been part of significant trains. When I've placed my vote on or moved it to a player, it has been early enough in the cycle that regardless of the current state of things, there is enough time for other players to join me if they agree with my position. I'm generally in favor of spreading votes a bit earlier in a cycle to increase the chances of putting pressure on an elim. Later on is when you move, if necessary, to consolidate things. I'm pretty sure we could continue to argue on the effectiveness of your methodology, but suffice it to say that I have reservations about it that you will not be able to dispel because I have seen too many games in which the elims deliberately act in a certain way because of common village assumptions.
  18. Araris Valerian
    I guess I'm trying to say that your assumption of elim participation is somewhat weakened if Reading flips village, since that means there has been little to no vote pressure on the elims so far. Similarly, if it turns out that multiple elims are lurking, your assumption is weakened further. I also think that while your assumption could be right most of the time, your analysis assumes it is correct in each and every case, which seems far less likely to me. You have 6 groups of people that you think have an elim in them. The odds that all of those groups actually have an elim is rather low, I think. I'm personally offended that you think so little of my bussing capabilities . More seriously, I have a slightly more personal reason to oppose your reasoning, being that it has allowed you to cast suspicion on me without actually saying anything suspicious that I've done. Like, I'm in your top three suspicions by virtue of... participating in the game, as best as I can tell. Yeah, revealing this might not have been a great idea, since like TJ said, you have significantly lower chances of rolling an ability a second time. I think there is a 4/10 chance to reroll, and then a 1/8 chance to get pewter. So only 1/20 chance that she gets it again, which if Tani is village, will make the elims more likely to target her. Also, in general, I would say not to reveal someone else's claim without their consent.
  19. Araris Valerian
    Hmm, I’m not really sure I agree with your methodology, @Quintessential. You have an underlying assumption that any significant vote train will have at least one elim in it. However, if all of the potential grinch targets up to now have been village, then there isn’t really much backing for that assumption, since the elims could just as easily sit back and let us kill each other. In fact, your methodology penalizes players who are active and are willing to contribute. My approach (and several of the options I proposed in my post where I voted for you), is to clarify whether any elims have actually been in danger (via Reading, and to a lesser extent, Illwei) and/or grinch some inactives to see if the elims are hiding there. I think it makes more sense to do that than to kill off our voting population based on a flawed assumption. Of course, this is purely from a vote analysis perspective. I also think an elim might deliberately use your process to chain a whole bunch of misgrinches. Just say “X group has at least one elim”, and then proceed to find, 5 villagers later, that there aren’t actually any elims in that group. I also feel like if you actually believed your analysis, you’d be voting on me or Stick, since that is the smallest group you give that supposedly has at least one elim, and you even have us both in your proposed team. But instead your analysis lead you to retract from Stick.
  20. Araris Valerian
    I don’t really have much to add to the reasoning I already gave. At that point in time, the vote was between Striker and Ash. The fact that Striker sent me a PM but didn’t really ask for anything seemed rather village to me. It was getting late in the cycle so I voted Ash as a placeholder until I could find something better. Not because I has anything against Ash, but because I thought Striker was likely village.
  21. Araris Valerian
    That makes me really uncomfortable. What would be the motivation of deciding who to grinch in a group PM rather than the thread? The only reason I can see to do that in a PM is to conceal some of the discussion from the general public, but that runs entirely counter to the purpose of the grinch discussion, which is to provide public information to be analyzed. I don't think multiple elims would be in such a PM, but I find it highly probably that at least one is. We already have a couple of votes on Stick, so I'm going to vote on Quinn for now. I'm still sorting through my opinion on Tani's roleclaiming, since it both seems like something a new villager might do, and like a ploy an elim might go for. Ask villagers for advice, follow said advice, get village cred. I'm happy with grinching any of these 3, I think. In addition to my current vote, I'd be potentially interested in grinching Reading, so we can learn if the D1 vote was v/v or v/e. Another info grinch we could do is Illwei, to see if anything was behind the shift of votes off of her. Another thing is that if Reading and Illwei are both village, then the voting this game hasn't actually put any pressure on the elims yet. In this case, there are likely multiple elims hiding behind low activity and/or not voting at all. For that reason, I'd be willing (again) to join a vote (I guess I started the last two) on a player that hasn't been super active.
  22. Araris Valerian
    Oops. The day's proceedings had put Arenta in a foul mood. Variel had still owed her 5 boxings and change, and now that money was lost forever. She'd rooted through his belongings afterwards, but none of them were worth the bother. His offer to tell some stories to cover his rent was charming, but naïve. If stories were really worth that much money, he could have paid her off after a couple of nights in the tavern. Besides, stories were exactly what this town didn't need right now. It was stories of Koloss and Spiked that got them into this mess in the first place. Cold facts and people keeping up on their debts was what Fallion's Tears needed these days, and Arenta planned to make ground towards both of those goals come morning.
  23. Araris Valerian
    It could, but I have a village read on Striker.
  24. Araris Valerian
    The main names that stick out to me from D1 are Striker, Pyro, Illwei, and Reading. Pyro is the only one that I really find suspicious, basically for jumping on Striker and then questioning the Books train without really getting involved in the voting. Illwei just kind of confuses me. Reading and Striker are interesting as trains that never really went anywhere. I'd give a slight village read to people that voted on Reading later on, just because elims didn't need a counter-wagon at that point, with Books being village. I'm not actually sure that Striker did much AI stuff C1. Mostly things were just happening to him. So my gut says Pyro is most suspicious going out of D1. Um. No, and just um. Striker sent me a PM and I got mild village vibes from it (not really the content, but the existence of the PM itself). People don't try to pocket me because I don't really talk enough in PMs for that to work. So it really makes more sense for village!Striker to initiate that conversation. I also find it interesting that neither Striker nor Ashbringer seems to want to grinch the other. Seems like we should have a third option, and I'll go with my gut from D1 and vote The Young Pyromancer.
  25. Araris Valerian
    I'm going to temporarily vote Ash just so that I'll have something concrete on the record for this cycle. This vote is by no means final and is based solely on a gut feeling from a PM with Striker. It has nothing actually to do with anything Ash has or hasn't done, and I'm still planning some analysis this cycle.
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