Quintessential
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If... hm. Illwei, I know I'm village, and I'm going to die anyway. The only way for things to get any better at this point, I think, since I can't convince you not to kill me, is for you all to vote me and Reading to shoot someone other than me. Illwei, switch your vote to me, and Reading. I'll unvote: Reading Reading, shoot someone else--anyone else has a chance of being elim, but if you shoot me I know there's no chance of that. We're no worse off if we exe me and Reading shoots someone else than if we exe Reading and Reading shoots me. And I'll give you more info anyway.
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Wait but 3-3 would be a loss, right? Wait do the elims have to reach parity or exceed the number of villagers??? Edit: ohhh it's outnumber as a win-con I just checked. I'm sorry I keep getting things confused here--legitimately don't know how I missed that. Might be that we spent C1 discussing the crossbow instead of the rules, idk : P Yeah okay Reading shoot someone if you feel like.
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: P go read my huge post about all the different possible outcomes. Exeing you, assuming village!you would agree not to shoot anyone, is the only way to make sure we don't lose (edit: this cycle, that is) (because if you're an elim, and we exe someone else and they're village, then you can win right now by shooting another villager; but if you're elim and we exe you then you can't win by shooting someone)
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If you're vil, and you shoot someone and they are vil, then we lose automatically. Don't shoot.
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TJ Reading @Shard of Reading if you're vil, don't shoot anyone : P Slept on it, this is better.
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Ah, so it's probably just sending a single secret message. Edit: rather than passing messages around like w/ Secret 2
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Well, I think it's something that some people started with. There's Secret 1, which is if you say a phrase three times, or call someone else out for saying phrases a certain number of times in Dannex's case, then you get a title at the end of the game. Then there's Secret 2, which I started with. Basically it's a piece of paper that people can write short messages on and then pass to someone else. All previous messages are shown. I've gotten it passed back to me a few times now. And then there's Secret 3, which I suspect is something that others started with? Or something like that? Where they can write their opinion of one person and pass it to someone else maybe? I don't think I can do anything with it now that I've gotten mine though.
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There are a couple of Secrets that seem to allow communication in a very limited capacity. I've received one myself, saying that Illwei seems village.
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By that evening, Tesse had calmed down somewhat. The detectives still hadn't shown up at her place, and the knot of tension between her shoulderblades had begun to loosen. She hadn't been close to any of the victims so far--she kept to herself, so the only person she really knew here was her neighbor Willie, and why would the Spiked target her? No, Sharpe and Speirs probably wouldn't interview her about the deaths for a while. That gave her time. Also, it had occurred to her that if such a determined intruder as the one from last night hadn't found her two secret safes, it was unlikely the detectives could do a better job. Unless, she supposed, one of them was a Misting, and to her knowledge neither one was. They didn't buy metals from her, after all. So she was safe. Right? Safe. To dispose of the contents of that second strongbox would be rash, and a waste of hundreds of boxings. She had better keep them. So it was that instead of preparing a sturdy sack of contraband to dump down a well or throw off a nearby bridge, she put together a small satchel, tucked a small portion of that illegal fortune inside, and headed out to the edge of town, glancing over her shoulder every once in a while to make sure no one watched her or followed. There were some cliffs there, on the outskirts, with a smattering of large rocks at their base. She picked her way among them to the particular, pre-agreed spot, tucked between two boulders, buried beneath a slew of pebbles, was a small metal box. She opened it and placed inside a note and the small, cloth-wrapped object, then snapped it shut and replaced the box, covering it with pebbles and underbrush and powdery black ash. After that, she headed out of the boulder-field, taking a different route back into the village.
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Hmmm that is weird.
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I didn't (and don't) think Ash is village (edit: elim sry I'm tired and hungry and keep mixing these words up : P), and there were no other options at the time (and I didn't know who else I'd vote for to start one, ig). I also didn't really understand why everyone was voting for Pyro, so I left my vote on Striker after Pyro became an option.
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It won't let me edit quotes in for some reason : P
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Why Matrim and TJ? Because they voted him? I could... really really really easily see e!Matrim and/or e!TJ deciding to vote for a villager as an IKYK. I don't think Reading being elim clears either of them at all. Yeah, but there's more gain from not doing so if I think we can get an elim this cycle. Whether we can is up for debate, I suppose. But I think so.
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Um no that is definitely not what I said. I caused the tie to see what would happen. It's what did happen that makes me suspicious of you, not the tie itself. And note that the results of last cycle aren't the only base for my suspicion for you anyway. Reading doesn't give us any information at all, unless I missed something major and he's had a bunch of interactions with other players that would clear those players if he flips elim or incriminate them if he flips vil? Exeing Reading now prevents immediate loss (so long as village!him would agree not to shoot anyone), but it makes long-term loss much more likely. I, personally, am aiming to win if it's possible, not just survive to next cycle. Not true--read further, I realized this was wrong later on. If we don't kill Reading and he is an elim and the person we exe is a villager, then it's an automatic loss for us. If we don't kill reading and he's an elim and we catch another elim, then he either gives himself away by shooting (because the game will continue into next cycle if we hit an elim this cycle, regardless of anything to do with Reading) or avoids shooting to keep from giving himself away. Both of which are good. Edit: double-post, sry about that
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yes precisely because I wanted to see what happened. This is what happened. I'm now analyzing it. Just... you're missing the point of my post, I think. I'm not trying to convince more people to vote for TJ there, obviously, since when I started writing it I thought TJ had three votes on him already and my notifs were broken apparently so I didn't see the new posts. The point of that post, and basically any post I make where I blatantly assume myself to be vil for the purposes of analysis, is to explain my thought process. I, knowing I'm vil, know that there weren't any elims trying to preserve the tie. I'm suspicious as to why. Therefore I vote the tied member that hasn't flipped vil. Also, voting Reading off is actually not a good idea and here's why: Right now, we're presumably at 6-3 (elims-villagers) (edit: villagers-elims, obviously : P) If we exe Reading and he's village, then next cycle we'll be at 4-3, which is XLo. If we exe Reading and he's elim, then next cycle we'll be at 5-2 and we have another cycle. Great, right? Wrong, because if Reading is elim and sees he's gonna die, he'll shoot someone this cycle. So if Reading's elim and we exe him, we'll be at 4-2 next cycle, which is also XLo. Now, there are obviously a couple of other ways this could go: Reading is village, and shoots someone with the Crossbow as he dies. If the person Reading shoots is elim, then next cycle we're at 4-2, which is still XLo If the person Reading shoots somehow ends up being a villager, but the same villager that the elim-kill targets, we're at 4-3, which is still XLo If the person Reading shoots is a different villager, the village loses the game. Reading is elim -- we've already covered this. Unless elim!Reading feels like gamethrowing, which I find unlikely, we'll be at XLo next cycle because he'll shoot a villager. We choose not to exe Reading. In this case, there are three different variables: Reading's alignment, the alignment of the person we exe, and the alignment of the person he kills, if anyone. Reading is village and we exe a villager (XLo no matter what): 4-3 if Reading shoots no one or the elim kill 4-2 if Reading shoots an elim 3-3 (loss) if Reading shoots a villager. Reading is village and we exe an elim (prevents XLo if Reading doesn't shoot or shoots an elim): 5-2 if Reading shoots no one or shoots the elim kill 5-1 if Reading shoots an elim 4-2 if Reading shoots a villager. Reading is elim and we exe a villager (automatic loss): Reading will always shoot a villager in this case, leading it to be 3-3, or an automatic loss. Reading is elim and we exe an elim: If Reading shoots in this case, it's 4-2 but that's fine because village!Reading would have no reason to shoot at all, so we'd know he's elim. Therefore, he won't shoot. This will leave us with 5-2, which is currently our best case scenario for next cycle. Obviously, our best course of action right now is to exe an elim. But more specifically, our best course of action to exe an elim who isn't Reading. We request that Reading not shoot anyone today. If he's village that will guarantee that the game continues at least next cycle, regardless of whom we exe. If he's elim, then exeing a villager would lead to an automatic loss (he'd shoot, knowing it would end the game). Exeing an elim would force him to withhold, though, so we'd end up with 5-2 next cycle which is the best reasonable scenario that we can expect to occur. If we exe an elim and he shoots, we know he's an elim, which is even better. (also, note that if Reading is village and we leave him alive, that decreases the number of people that the elims have to choose from for their kill)
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I concur on both points, Illwei; TJ Vote counts for C1 and C2 (purple = villager, since Archer doesn't want us using green for non-vote things) TJ (2): Illwei, Ash Dannex (4): Books, Matrim, Quinn, TJ Books (3): Matrim, Reading, TJ Matrim (1): Gears TJ (2): Books, Ash Quinn (1): Illwei My reasoning is as follows: If Books and TJ were v/v, then why wouldn't the elims have preserved that tie between them? Ties between villagers create confusion, uncertainty, and if the tie-breaking vote isn't self-pres (as in this case it was, so I'm counting TJ's vote as NAI) then the village begins to suspect the tie-breaker once the loser flips village. As it is, they seem to have done nothing to ensure that that tie remained (obviously) since all of the votes on TJ were village. Admittedly, it's possible that TJ is village and his last-minute vote caught them off-guard, but that's not my only reason for him. He was also one of two not-confirmed people on Dannex, a train which I don't see including no elims since a third of the people in the game are on it. It could, but I don't think it's likely. (Matrim would be next if TJ flips vil, for having been on all three misexe trains to that point, and being the only not-confirmed on Dannex. If TJ flips elim, Matrim would return to a comfortable mild village in my eyes, though of course my tinfoil brain would still be informing me that it was a bus) Edit: Oh wait I was ninja'd by a bunch of people how did that happen. Hold on, lemme catch up real quick Edit: Could somebody post so I don't have to double-post? pls and thx lol
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Why aren't they good?
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Cuz I want to
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Books must. Preserve. The. Tie.
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I'm gonna make it a tie TJ Books
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Is that because you copied yours off of his?
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You have yourself on both Ash and Striker? XDDDDD
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*cough* you have TJ on both Gears and Pyro lol We really can't get VCs right this game, can we...
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Hey, so we've got like an hour and a half until rollover... uh, current VC: Books (2): Ash, Matrim Matrim (1): Gears TJ (2): Illwei, Quinn I guess we could just leave it as a tie, since those are decided randomly? Also, @Shard of Reading are you planning to shoot anyone this cycle? I agree with Illwei that it's probably better used earlier than later, though next cycle might be better since we'll at least have narrowed down the potential suspect list by two people.
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Illwei (does it work if I retract in a different post? Uh. Or should I go edit it back into the old one?) You guys all seem to assume there has been serious Quinn - Illwei stuff in previous games... uh, I don't actually remember that? The first game anything like that really happened iirc was QF50, and that was just Illwei joke-voting me basically. Other than that it's happened in the MR but really nowhere else? (I'm almost inclined to think it's a tell that one of us is v and the other is e, since I was elim in QF50 and she was elim in the MR, but... XD that's probably tinfoiling). Anyway, to answer your question, no, I don't think Gears has really gotten involved in this kind of thing before (like, he didn't get involved in my D1 tunnel on Matrim in LG73 either, or in my C2 fake-tunnel of Dannex in QF50). The post itself still reads... Gears-y to me though.
