Quintessential
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Everything posted by Quintessential
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Again: not defending you--I just don't think it's worth our time to attack you either. Straff should take care of that for us eventually, whether you're actually Cett or not
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BECAUSE HE"S (practically) CONFIRMED CETT. If Matrim isn't a top exe candidate, then Straff has every reason to NK him because they know he's Cett (or at least they know he's not Straff, since their kill on him went through last cycle) and given that he survived their kill from last cycle, he could very well be Cett Mistborn. Look, here's the deal: speaking generally, the best thing for Straff to do right now is get Mat exed. They probably want him dead, and if they can get the village to kill him for them, that's a win for them. They can focus their kills on whomever else they want--including villagers, something which Mat almost certainly isn't. By exeing someone else instead of Mat, we will force Straff to eventually try to kill him--since one way or another, they know he's not one of them and if we're not gonna kill him, they have to do it to win. So by not exeing him, we're using up one of their elim kills. Whereas if we exe him, we're using up one of our exes that could be spent elsewhere. (so basically, Illwei is currently saying exactly what I'd expect members of Straff to say in this situation) All we have to do is all agree (or at least most of us agree) that since everyone knows Mat is Cett, Straff is going to have to kill him eventually. If we all publicly say that we're not gonna exe him, they have to kill him. It's literally in their win-con. yes, it's in the village win-con too, but we may as well let the enemies do the work for us. That way, we will never waste a cycle exeing him, and he'll die (eventually), and it'll be one less villager that Straff have the opportunity to NK. .... er. Yeah. That's... like exactly opposite standard terminology XD Also I see your point--I just realized that's exactly the argument I have against Illwei above : P but yeah anyway it didn't... the tempting thing at the beginning of the cycle was to vote the (mostly) confirmed elim, without stopping to think about it. After which you convinced me otherwise, evidently : P I've said this like five times already this game and I'll say it again: There are two elim teams. If Straff doesn't attack Mat this cycle, then yes, they will (as always) be guaranteed to attack someone not of their own alignment--but that's also true of Mat because their attack on him worked last cycle, ergo he's not of their alignment. And yes, if Straff attacks someone other than Mat this cycle, they could potentially hit someone on the other elim team--but if they attack Mat this cycle, they will definitely hit someone from the other elim team. So I don't see what your point is here? In both of these cases, the thing they would gain from not attacking Mat is also a thing they would gain from attacking Mat? ***Not attacking Mat does not guarantee that Straff will not lose one of their own to the exe! I have literally no idea what you're thinking here! The elims who would attack Mat would be Straff, as Mat is already proven not Straff. If we exe Mat, then yeah Straff won't lose anyone from their team. But that's bad for us, not good, so I don't see what your point is. If Straff doesn't kill Mat, but we sane people successfully convince everyone else not to vote Mat either, then we're just as likely to exe someone from Straff as we would be if Mat was actually attacked. Basically, to this third point, Straff not attacking Mat does not help them avoid the exe in and of itself. So, that's... all of your points against exeing Mat debunked? yeah, that's all of 'em.
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I'm kind of confused what TMI has to do with this? The only people who have TMI on Mat are (potentially) his own team. And that's only if he's Mistborn. Also, yeah, I was voting for Mat last cycle to make it clear that the vote I intended to place on him this cycle wasn't just coming out of nowhere. Of course, turns out that wouldn't have been an issue but I didn't know that : P Right, he's basically confirmed elim. Specifically, he's basically confirmed Cett. If he's not a top exe candidate, Straff will almost certainly attack him. Because their literal Mistborn told them to. They might not attack him if, for example, he's only a vote or two behind any other exe targets. But at this point, exeing him would be a waste because he's gonna die anyway. This way, we know exactly who one of the two teams is going to attack, and we are free to discuss other people. *blink* what???? I did vote you! Last cycle! And this cycle! And I only removed my vote from you after you asked us all to not vote you and let you get NKd instead. Uh-uh, I can believe your arguments on Illwei but saying I'm trying to avoid voting you is grasping at straws.
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To be honest, this is actually fair. For the same reason that I can believe a confirmed Straff's claim of a Cett identity, I can just as easily listen to that Cett's claim of Straff connections. The only downside is that it opens up the possibility of Mat being Lurched. Okay, so what I'm discovering right now is that multiball is weird XD I'm simultaneously so convinced that Mat is elim that I've marked all 49 mentions of him in my notes doc with the Cett color, and I'm genuinely listening to his arguments for why Illwei is Straff. Which are actually... pretty good. I'm... not... sure what to do here. Because Mat's pointing out a bunch of things that I think pinged me at the time, or later (in going through my notes just now I was like "why was Illwei voting for Striker for so long anyway?"), but I never... I don't trust my gut on Illwei, mostly because of QF51 tbh. The thing that pings me the most, though, is Illwei continuously referencing "the Elim team," as though she's not thinking so much about the fact that there are two. For the elims, there is only one elim team that they have to worry about, so that seemed kind of slip-ish to me. Anyway I... okay y'know what let's do this. Matrim Illwei To be incredibly crystal clear, this does not mean I don't think Mat's elim. If Straff doesn't attack him this cycle, or if they do attack him but he survives, I will be pushing for his exe next cycle. But he makes a good point, and I can't see why they wouldn't attack him, since their own Mistborn said he was an enemy.
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Striker didn't post about Mat until last-minute, remember? None of his teammates would have known for sure about Mat either. Idk why they chose Mat specifically, but I'd guess it wasn't Striker secretly leaving clues in his posts or anything--more like one or more of his teammates thought Mat was a good kill for tone.
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Well of course you don't, you're the accused For those of you who are wondering why we're voting the person the confirmed elim Mistborn accused, here it is: There are two elim teams. Each team has a vested interest in killing off not only villagers, but the other elim team. Striker had a way of mechanically confirming a member of that other team, so he used it and announced it to the thread so that something would be done about it the next cycle. On the other hand, he would have had no way of mechanically confirming someone as village. If he announced the identity of someone he didn't know was Cett, he'd risk accidentally choosing one of his own teammates--and his team isn't exactly doing great either. Anyway, point is that Striker was almost certainly telling the truth about Mat.
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I actually have Bip down as potentially being on the same elim team with e-Mistborn Striker because she kinda sheeped him on STINK (actually, originally I'd said it would be one of the two of them on an elim team with e-Mistborn Liranil but unless Mat's a Thug, I'm.. pretty sure we've already found both the elim Mistborns : P)
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: P Mat's essentially mechanically confirmed Cett. All votes on him are NAI at this point.
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Ah! Right. Matrim thank you for reminding me to do that Illwei and now, to update my notes!
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Okay, will have more later but first of all: Striker may have been lying about his identity but he likely was telling the truth about using atium and seeing Mat (this way, his team knows a member of the other team to try to take out--why would he lie about who was attacking him?). AKA, Mat is Cett, and was the one RNGd with the attack on Striker. Striker, meanwhile, was Straff (obviously) and Straff was the team that attacked Archer last cycle.
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I mean, it's not like my vote is gonna make a difference regardless of where I put it. I'm leaving it where it is.
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VC: Archer (9): Striker, TUO, Whysper, Pizza, Matrim, Liranil, Biplet, Ash, Illwei Liranil (1): Archer Matrim (1): Quinn
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Yeah, I mean C1; haven't looked at C2 votes yet since the cycle's not over.
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So in time that has elapsed since the last time I posted, I got bored and made this Because why not
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You were explaining your reasoning... around... your attack on me... tho. I feel entitled to respond
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I just read the rules carefully! Like, that's a thing I always do! smh that's like my favorite part of games is reading the rules. The thirteenth time's always my favorite, because by that point I've memorized half the phrasing so I can say most of it without looking and then just glance back occasionally to correct myself!* (also, would note that in the situation described, they could only know about the multiple elim teams through TMI, whereas the question I asked could also have been prompted by a thorough read of the rules--which in my case it was) *yes this is a joke I only read the rules like three times but still, random details stick with me and that was one of them.
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Even if we were by some miracle of chance on the same elim team, we wouldn't both know it. At most, one of us would be Mistborn and the other would know it. (but of course, I'm villager so that's a mute point )
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...you pushed me in MR48 too, and I was vil then. I think you just have a history of attacking me smh XD you've done it when we're v/v, e/v, v/e... and we've never been elim together but we'd probably have to do this then too XD
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And this is the debate I've been having internally. On the one hand, why waste an exe when they'll kill him anyway. On the other hand, will they actually kill him if we don't exe him. back and forth and back and forth... yeah. I would agree except that elim Illwei pushes things like this too : P Edit: @Illwei it would have been 10, but I switched my vote to Mat a page ago
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Ohhh sorry forgot other sites have blackout games as the norm okay that makes more sense. Yeah, no it was a thing that stood out to me in the rules, that's all I was the first person to sign up, so I was worried we wouldn't get enough people to have good-sized elim teams in a multiball game, and I noticed that rule as a result of that worry.
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Er... those aren't the same thing at all? Asking if there are multiple elim teams is asking something that was specifically stated in the rules. I was asking something that wasn't clarified in the rules, because TJ never said what the cutoff was for the number of players necessary before the elims would know two teammates (which makes sense, since if he had it might have given us an idea right at the start of the ratio of elims to non-elims : P)
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...I'm confused? Mat assumed, or seemed to assume, that the elims would know two teammates, the Mistborn and one other. That could be either an accidental village slip or an intentional "village" slip, easily one or the other. I didn't talk about only knowing one teammate until I'd gotten that clarification one way or the other. Which, btw, if I hadn't asked that I'm pretty sure you guys would still be assuming the elims know teammates other than the Mistborn, which could lead to... all sorts of crazy conclusions. So... you're welcome? idk, but seriously the answer to that question was important to know so I don't see why you're sussing me for it. (no, I'm not saying you should vil-read me for it either--but it definitely doesn't deserve suspicion? at least I wouldn't be sus of someone else who'd asked that, (edit: specifically for asking it I mean). idk)
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I... shoot, now that you mention it, I had a note on Mat for other reasons--he shifted his criticism of me (when I was arguing with Illwei) really quickly, and the votes on Archer picked up right after Mat voted for him... the second one is tinfoil, but the first was tone and... great now I want to vote Matrim instead of Archer. At the end of the day, Archer will probably end up NKd eventually even if we don't exe him--and like I said when I voted him, my primary reason for doing so was I didn't really see a reason to vote anyone else : P Edit: @Illwei I believe you've said in the past that elims sometimes feign ignorance about things that elims would definitely know, for precisely this reaction. : P
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Don't worry, we're trying not to exe you so early this game! but, I mean, that's only because the elims are probably gonna NK you anyway
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that might be because you always die so early tho
