Quintessential
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*rubs eyes* okay first of all, would like to point out that because of the way probability works, Archer and Striker are not any less likely to be elims than they were before! Look up the Monty Hall Problem. This is the same thing, but with slightly different probabilities. But having said that, Archer. Not because he's convinced me he's not elim, but because it occurred to me while I was catching up with the thread that we could just let him and Striker get NKd again, and focus our energy on others. The elim teams that attacked them can't know whether they hit a Thug or a Mistborn, which means that they'll want to hit them again to find out. Presumably. Obviously they could always decide not to, but I don't... really see what they'd gain from that. (Edit: The elims) attacking Archer and Striker doesn't give us any additional info about the elim teams, because they already did it once. And each one stands to gain from the possibility of taking out an enemy Mistborn. Liranil for the same reasons/tinfoil as last cycle (plus I agree with whoever pointed it out that she's playing a bit more conservatively than usual).
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Yeah, at this point we're just talking... I assumed Striker was referring to last cycle?
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I mean last time it happened Illwei was elim Or 3
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Well that wasn't--okay, technically it was Illwei's fault but it wasn't directly related to the thunderdome XD
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Sorry
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Hey why am I the underdog???
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Jeez I was just pointing it out : P the statement you made, as you made it, was technically false, so... ...so you pick Pizza? Who's said... basically nothing game-related? Whatever, that's fine if you want to do that ig but it just doesn't seem useful to me, is all.
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Note that I didn't use it yesterday. I now have reason to think he could actually be Mistborn. Him being e-Mistborn fits with his tone in some posts last cycle, and him being e-Mistborn with you fits with your tone in some posts last cycle, but I wasn't gonna act on it until I had reason to think I was on the right track, which I now do. Also, you voted STINK for the same reason that you're now criticizing me for. You don't exactly have ground to stand on here. Well, they could both be elim. They'd just have to be on different teams. Why? I'm... pretty sure Pizza just isn't sure what's going on lol Also why does Pizza deserve this much thought, when you haven't said anything about people who've actually contributed, like Matrim? I'd typed that before he posted and forgot to go back and change it : P
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So... are you going to vote him?
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I specifically think he's an elim Mistborn, due to interactions last cycle.
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Well that was... not what I expected to happen. All the ways that players can survive an attack: be targeted by a Lurcher; be a Thug; be a Mistborn. I honestly can't see why Archer or Striker would have been targeted by a Lurcher, unless an elim Lurcher decided to protect their elim Mistborn, in which case that's another of the categories anyway. Archer was an exe candidate for much of the cycle, so I'm ruling out Lurcher for him entirely--nobody tries to NK someone who might die anyway, so nobody protects someone who might die anyway : P (edit: yes ik someone did try to NK someone who might die anyway, but my point is nobody expects that) Therefore: Archer is either a Thug or a Mistborn. Striker might have been targeted by a Lurcher but I can't see... why... that would have happened... so I'm just gonna say he's probably Thug or Mistborn as well. Question now is: what do we do with that? I'd been theorizing either STINK/Archer e-Mistborn/e or Archer/Illwei e-Mistborn/e. The former, obviously, we now know isn't the case. But the latter... given that: A. Archer's response to my STINK vote did sound forced (though I misinterpreted that originally as being an attempt to protect a teammate) B. Illwei's response to my theory about her and Archer was kinda... I mean she's explained it and I can see how she could have that response but it also feels off to me still C. the person Archer voted on was also NKd? not sure whether this one actually means anything tho D. Archer is now proven to have had an extra life... Archer Let's see how this goes : P (would note that Striker is also on my radar, but for the moment I'm honestly not super worried about him--or at least, I don't think he's Mistborn. Combination of gut and voting patterns)
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vote Liranil!
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: P my theory--and I think to an extent Illwei's--are more just "if STINK were to flip elim Mistborn", and not "because I think this might be true, I'm gonna vote STINK!" Edit: But like... Illwei's voting STINK, so...
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No, we have another half-hour : P
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*blink* Oh. I meant Stink. I... I'm tired I'm sorry : P
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After all, villagers jump on trains too, in normal games. And they can't even be sure they're not gonna kill off their most powerful role by accident, whereas the elims in this game at least know that.
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Oh! Shoot, sorry I thought rollover wasn't until tomorrow for some reason : P Unfortunately, rollover is at 2pm my time which means that while I can be on for it, I don't have the time to sit down and actually think about stuff. Will say that the train on Striker (edit: I meant STINK) worries me. It's not that it picked up super fast--in fact, that's probably a good sign because the elims don't know their teammates identities, so they have to be cautious about following trains or risk accidentally voting out someone of the same alignment as them. Villagers, obviously, always have that issue, but I think so far we're assuming there are more of us still, so we can afford to lose a few. What worries me about STINK is that nobody's actually giving reasoning related to STINK. Illwei's voting based off of an e/e pair, which on the one hand is understandable in this game but on the other hand I've done that before and it doesn't work out so well on C1 usually. Everyone else is voting him... just because? Because others are doing it? I don't have time to go back and check if that's actually why, but from what I can tell the reasons to vote stink have very little to do with STINK. It makes me wonder if there isn't a Mistborn on that train and one or more of the elims on their team decided to follow them. As for myself: the only reason I have to think STINK might be elim was Archer's response to my blank-vote on STINK, and I am no longer convince that Archer is particularly elimmy either, except in conjunction with either STINK or Illwei, both of whom are behaving in... maybe not villagery ways but ways that I've seen village!them act before. I'm leaving Archer on the back burner, but idk whether I'll... vote based off of it. idk, I just don't have anything at this point, partly because this game is way different and I don't even know what to look for anymore. Liranil Because who doesn't love a little tinfoil? : P
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lol this isn't LG74 Illwei Also @Ashbringer there's another one for your bingo card: the GM does something crazy with the role distro
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Oh! I just thought of something, on the subject of scanners outing or not outing Mistborn: To all the scanners out there, realize that if you out a Mistborn and that Mistborn turns out not to be Vin, you've just signed your own death warrant. Because everyone on the elim team to which that Mistborn belongs will know that A. you're a scanner and B. you're not one of them, so therefore there's no downside to voting for your NK.
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Lotus being elim
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Also voting Gears for NAI things, arguing over the D1 vote, and an early misexe of Striker? lol
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You kinda did dismiss theory 1. Right here: And here: And you never did say why. I'm not really sure why me blank-voting STINK to test reactions is more suspicious than Archer voting me shortly after I voted STINK, I guess is what I'm saying. You didn't want to get into it so you just... dismissed it instead? But yeah, that's what it was. Illwei Also @StrikerEZ here's your VC: Illwei (1): STINK Archer (2): Matrim, Tani Pizza (1): Pizza STINK (3): Illwei, Liranil, Striker Striker (1): Archer
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Agree with all of this, except: Since the Mistborn don't know anyone's alignments, they aren't going to look overtly sus or elimmy at all, at least not in the way they interact with others. And STINK is pretty chill anyway, so idk that we'd be able to tell if he were elim Mistborn Also my thing about Archer is at this point more of an "if STINK does ever end up flipping e!Mistborn" idea than anything. His more recent posts read fine to me, not forced or anything like that.
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The thing about trying to convince you was in response to you saying: Since I wasn't trying to convince you, that response seemed a little... odd to me. But ig I can see that being just a figure of speech or something? Okay, point of frustration here: Regardless of my alignment, I'm not about to say "yeah I might be e/e with STINK!" As it happens, I know that's literally impossible (spoiler alert: I'm village) so none of my theories are going to factor in that I might be elims with someone and it's kinda unreasonable for you to expect them to, or think it's weird that they don't. Okay? Also, in retrospect I see what you mean--it does look like I was trying to spin it away from me. But seriously, I've been considering that theory literally since Archer voted me, and since you brought up an e/e relationship with STINK I figured I'd state the one I'd been thinking about. it just reminded me of it, that's all. And yeah, if STINK ever flips e!Mistborn, I will probably vote Archer at least at first (though obviously plenty could change in the interim), and I assume you'll vote me. What everyone else does is up to them, as always. I'd love to hear an explanation of why it was irrational : P To be clearer about what I meant: - Archer had four votes on him, and you came into the thread with an unrelated comment about STINK and me. Which is fine in and of itself. - It reminded me of a tinfoil thing I'd thought of, so I responded with that. - You said that didn't make sense and asked me to explain, which is fine. But when I did, and then you said it still didn't make sense, and since you didn't say why it didn't make sense that just felt like you were dismissing/deflecting it without really even thinking about it. You outright dismissed the idea I'd had, which I wouldn't think was odd if it had included you. I guess this is the thing that frustrates me: you're equating my somewhat-dismissal of your theory with your outright dismissal of mine. However, I can personally dismiss your theory (though not publicly--and I did respond as best I could : P) because I know my alignment and know your theory can't be true. Village!you, on the other hand, would have no preconceived reason to think my theory is false--in fact, technically our theories could both be true, though why I'd propose mine if me and STINK are elims together, idk--and so I'd assume you would at least genuinely consider it. You don't seem to have done that, though, or at least if you have, you've skipped the step of explaining what in your consideration you found to be lacking about my idea. So at this point I'm tinfoiling (note the emphasis on that word here) that Archer is elim with you and you're trying to deflect attention away from him. People aren't on my back in the first place, so no on that point. The only person who's voted me is Archer, and nobody's really expressed suspicion of me. Given that you said your theory felt tunnely to you, I wasn't worried about it. Again, it just reminded me of something I'd been thinking of. Also, again, I'd love to hear an explanation of why it was irrational, any more than anything anyone else has to say about other players during C1. At which point you responded, pointed out that there weren't really ways to catch elims, I realized you're right, and I'm now of that view as well. sigh okay sorry this needed clarification. I note that you feel like you did in QF51. Purely an observation. I'm voting on you because the thing that makes you seem like in QF51 reads elimmy to me in general (and also is something you've done in elim games but that isn't the primary reason), and I thought it was pretty odd in QF51 too. If I were going purely, or mostly, off of meta, I wouldn't be voting you at all because since you were vil in QF51, I'd be thinking "huh, this is a vil thing for Illwei". This is accurate; this much I agree with. I gave reasoning, yeah. However, I wasn't modifying my guess. I was stating an alternative theory that I could see being true. As it is, I can still see STINK/Archer, though I'm leaning more towards Archer/Illwei now. But at the time that I proposed the latter, I could easily have seen either being true. See my detailed explanation above. The vote is partly out of frustration, if I'm being honest. It feels like you're either not reading anything I say or intentionally misinterpreting it. So. I'm frustrated. But also. If it is intentional misrepresentation, then that's elimmy : P so that's the other place the vote stems from. (yes, I'm aware that I said the vote was partly based on meta. Thinking about it now, it wasn't, or at least it no longer is. I can't actually think of a time in either MR48 or LG74 where you've really done... this, whatever this is. Or, if it happened it was milder there.) And yeah, I didn't want to have another wallpost argument either : P
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Hmmm I'll play as Lady Lumi Tominel. (thanks for the names, Gears!)
