Quintessential
-
Posts
1691 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
News
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Everything posted by Quintessential
-
Eh, I wouldn't worry about it I didn't bother up until MR48 (my... 10th? game edit: no it was my 9th game lol but still)--and then it was only 'cause I actually had stuff I wanted to write down and keep track of.
-
My notes doc has a key at the top where I have different colors for the two different elim teams (for whenever an elim flips) so I have that visual reminder every time I open it XD which is probably part of why I remember.
-
...why do all of your posts talk like there's only one elim team? Like, the phrasing "the elim team" is super... idk, that feels off to me. Anyway, we're killing them because there are two elim teams, who want each other dead just as much was we want them dead. (edit: sorry, I meant to add more to this and Striker's post distracted me. Therefore, the fact that Striker and Archer were NKd doesn't mean they're not elim, and it's not even a tinfoily "what if it was a WGG" in this game. I don't think we would be voting Archer off, except that enough people were sus of him anyway for it to make sense to them that he might be e-Mistborn) ...or the thing I said. Guyyyssss when looking at votes and thinking about voting, remember that the elims don't know each other's identities, and that there are two different teams : P
-
eh, realistically in this game it shouldn't : P if he's a normal elim there's not actually anyone out there that knows that, and if he's e-Mistborn only 2 or 3 people do.
-
Realistically speaking, that only worked because you pocketed me and I basically am the thread Also, Gears since the sole reason I was voting him before was that he hadn't posted (I do recognize that his analysis wasn't great for the village but he always gives advice to both sides in those analyses, so it's NAI for him, and I don't think it's even near being worth a retribution-vote) And Archer because honestly, there's no one else to vote for here, and exeing him will give us some amount of information anyway. (was ninja'd by both Bip and Liranil doing the same : P)
-
First of all it was a joke Second of all, because Archer was the only person voting on Striker at the end of last cycle, and then Striker was targeted with an NK, and now Archer is the only person voting Liranil--so I just thought it'd be funny if she- yeah, you get it : P
-
Yes I was joking : P
-
lol so if Liranil is NKd this cycle then we'll know Archer is definitely an elim Mistborn (Current VC: Archer (5): Striker, TUO, Whysper, Pizza, Matrim Liranil (1): Archer Experience (1): Liranil Gears (3): Quinn, Illwei, Ash) Edit: no the VC is not supposed to be some prod for something to happen, I'm just explaining my comment about Liranil : P
-
I believe Ash meant that Archer links to people, and that he'll switch to Archer once Gears posts (assuming Gears posts).
-
*sigh* in case it wasn't obvious (apparently it wasn't : P) I'm doing it because I'm trying, apparently in vain, to generate discussion. As I said earlier, 6 people have voted. Six. We're well into the cycle and a good third of the group hasn't even posted yet. We can't get anywhere like this, so I'm trying to shake things up and give us something to actually talk about. Unfortunately, it's not working
-
Hmmm Liranil Gears @Gears you've been awfully quiet... explain to me why I shouldn't vote you
-
...no? this one started at 2pm my time yesterday. It's now 5pm (edit: rounding down--it's more like 5:30 but whatever) my time. It's been 27 hours, therefore more than half the cycle. : P
-
Here: Archer (3): Striker, TUO, Whysper Liranil (2): Archer, Quinn Exp (1): Liranil Would note that we're more than halfway through the cycle and those are the only six people who've voted (out of 17!)
-
Did I mess that up? If I did it was 'cause I misunderstood how the metals were chosen, not 'cause I did the math wrong : P
-
(Ventyl replaced out--that slot is now taken by Whysper)
-
I mean you coulda voted me
-
Wait wait wait oh you're right sorry I was copying Striker's phrasing without thinking about it XD I meant they can't both be the same kind of elims : P
-
: P you both can't be elims. That's... like, a major point of what I was--oh whatever. The sole point of that post is to clarify why I'm annoyed at the discussions around the "probability" of you vs. Archer being elim. I wasn't trying to misdirect or anything, I was just frustrated that people are throwing around statements that aren't actually true and then not listening when I said they weren't. Anyway, this discussion isn't actually getting us anywhere at this point. I notice that we've been focusing way more on the people who didn't flip last cycle than on the person who did. So, in the interests of hopefully having something more productive to talk about: @Illwei @Liranil @StrikerEZ and @Biplet, since I'm too lazy to look back at C1 and I suspect I'm not the only one who is (or who doesn't have the time), would you mind briefly explaining why you voted for STINK? Edit: @Illwei when did I mess up math in LG74?
-
Probability and actuality are two different things. Assuming 3-elim teams, the probability that any given player is elim is 6/18, or 1/3, because that's what it was when the alignments were actually set. After that, regardless of what we learn about players and their relationships to each other, the probabilities are fixed. The fact that we now know Striker and Archer can't be on the same elim team doesn't mean they couldn't have been--that was a possibility at the start, when roles and alignments were actually distributed. Our knowledge of a situation doesn't change the situation itself. Our knowledge of the actuality doesn't change the probability. As an example, take a typical C1 in which two villagers die. Does the death of two villagers mean that the remaining players are less likely to be village? No, it doesn't, because alignments weren't assigned after the two villagers died, they were assigned before the two villagers died. They haven't changed since then. There was a 75% chance, more or less, of rolling village at the start, and nobody's alignment has changed since then, so no probabilities have changed. We just have more information on what actually happened. Basically my point is twofold. On the one hand, you're thinking about the probability the wrong way. It is dependent on only the conditions when alignments were first set, not on what we learn later. Striker and Archer each have a 1/3 chance of having been assigned elim, still, regardless of what we know now about what actually happened. On the other hand, probability just isn't that useful as a decision-making tool in this scenario, because we now have new information that makes it either obsolete or annoyingly complex to work with. Thank you for attending my TED talk
-
Who are you looking at right now? (side-note: apparently no one believes the future engineering major who once took an entire class devoted to probability on how the math around this actually works. Great. Cool. Good to know. >>)
-
*rubs eyes* that's... not how that works. : P You say: "There are literally only 2 options for each of us, and we can't both be on the same elim teams." But... that's the whole point of the Monty Hall problem. Ruling out one of the three doors doesn't change any of the probabilities. Ruling out one of the three teams doesn't change any of the probabilities either. Also, note that because we don't know which team attacked each of you, we haven't even opened a door, so to speak. We know you can't be on the same team, but originally you could have been, and that probability transfers. The Monty Hall problem is just an example of that larger phenomenon. : P Oh my god I am backing off because I realized he's gonna die anyway! That was my whole point. The elim team that attacked him before now knows that he very well might be Mistborn, that he's not on their team, and that attacking him doesn't give us any more information about the team itself. They have every reason to kill him and no reason not to. I'm not gonna waste a cycle exeing him when the elims will probably attack him again this cycle if he's not in the lead for votes. Exeing him would just be doing their work for them.
-
Okay good it would have been a nightmare to write out XD anyway. Uh. Any idea what we should talk about now?
-
Er... no... but like... : P somebody has already pointed out that there is no probability disadvantage to voting them off. It's not... a thing... we need... to keep discussing. do I need to write out a mathematical proof of it or something? I can do that if you want... Edit: @Matrim's Dice my point is that you responded to Illwei by saying you didn't love that reasoning about them being less likely to be elims, but weren't sure whether you were right about that... but... like... I already said that reasoning was definitely wrong >> so... did you just not read that? or were you ignoring it or something?
-
Does nobody read my posts???
-
Basically, my thought is that it was odd that people voted STINK without much reasoning, and without any reasoning related to STINK himself. Normally I'd think that was elim coordination, but the elims can't coordinate this game, right? Except if they follow their Mistborn. So I was theorizing/tinfoiling that Liranil was elim-Mistborn (she was the second person to vote STINK) and then one or both (but probably just one : P) of [Striker, Biplet] was elim with her, and following her vote to try to signal that. Technically, Illwei voted STINK before Liranil did, so she's a possible (edit: e-Mistborn) candidate also, but she also voted way before the other three votes so I don't think that's as likely. Am I grasping at straws? Yeah, pretty much. But our two major suspects from last cycle were STINK and Archer, with Illwei and Liranil just behind them. STINK's dead, I think we should just leave Archer to whichever elim team attacked him last cycle, ditto for the new suspicion on Striker, and I don't want to attack Illwei again at this point without more evidence against her because wallpost battles are exhausting and when she turns out to actually be village I feel bad about it : P beyond that, we had nothing from C1, nothing has surfaced so far this cycle, and so... yeah. Liranil it is.
