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Everything posted by |TJ|
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Hmmm, I'm pretty set on e!Coco, but let's consider a world of v!Coco and e!Stick. So it's... Burnt/Stick/TwinStorm/+1 and the +1 HAS to be among in living players at the beginning of Loop 3 -> [Coco, Doc, Hael, Mistfallen] Strikethroughs -> We are considering a v!Coco world. Mistfallen is village from Burnt's fake claim. Hael is village in this world, accurately relaying information about e!Stick, which means Doc HAS to be the 4th elim in this case. Doc is NOT paired with Burnt throughout the whole game, so Doc/Burnt e/e ALSO does not make sense. As this team and scenario does not make sense, we are back to v!Doc -> e!Coco -> v!Stick -> e!Hael
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Ehh, this team is/was set on winning as soon as possible. Does it take a risk to bus someone D3B in the hopes that you will follow-through on N3B? I don't think so. Ahh my bad, sorry. I was looking back to D3A and D3B to see the likelihood that Stick could be an elim with either Coco or Burnt. On doing so, I realised there's no world where she's evil with either of them, which is what I was showing to everyone. At the very least, she's not evil with Burnt -> she's not evil, which would imply you are lying, and hence my vote. [Side-note: yes I do village-read Drake quite strongly]
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I think 2 of the votes had quite clear reasons Stick has to be a counter-vote if she's village and I clearly gave reasons for mine. I don't believe there's a world where Stick is evil with Burnt or with Coco, which means you are lying. How you are lying is, quite frankly, immaterial to me. Realistically though, I think Drake did have Don Gero and get targeted by Archer!Postman which he revealed in the doc. You (or someone else from the elim team) do(es) have Captain's Hat. You're just lying about who targeted Drake in the Night. Side-note: @Amanuensis, can elims continue to talk in the elim doc if they are killed in the current Loop? For example, consider Coco to be an elim. Could she continue to talk in the elim doc after she was exe'd in D1C?
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I will clear this up once and for all (tagging @Araris Valerian as well) I acknowledged that Burnt could be lying about buying the Mask, and a teammate could have gotten it. I still stand by my statement that going for Coco, who clearly had more than 50 rupees, was the right move. Burnt having 50 rupees was just a hypothetical we could not confirm. I still stand by Coco/Burnt being paired without a doubt.
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I meant disregarding the Don Goro scan. Hmmm, I always thought Stick was pushing a you/Coco e/e team quite equally. I'll read again, but in the meantime - Chronology of Day 3-B: VC halfway into Day 3-B, Coco leading comfortably -> Coco's vote on Stick -> VC about 40 minutes before the End of Turn -> Burnt says she doesn't want to intervene, but she does; breaks the tie and favours Coco's survival -> Final VC before the Blast -> Some snippets from Day 3-A: VC 8 hours 30 minutes before End of Turn -> This is when Coco breaks the tie in preference to a TUM exe -> Almost all these votes are made of exactly the same thread, be it Burnt's or Coco's - "not getting a great read", "I guess they could be evil or village", "I don't have a preference either way", but it always ends up in a vote that has saved a potential elim. Like what do you mean "i'm not going to intervene, but i will solidify Stick"? You are clearly intervening to vote out Stick in case there are any vote manips. To provide a rebuttal against the D3B bus theory, if we say e!Stick, it means v!Archer and the elims could not have predicted the Blast or even know for sure if Archer would Blast in N3B, so they needed a village death in D3B to be certain of an elim Loop win. I do not buy the bus, and I do not buy Burnt/Stick or Coco/Stick e/e, sorry. Haelbarde Besides, if we believe this, then we have already won the Loop and there is no downside to voting Hael here. However, if we are wrong about TwinStorm and we vote out Stick, we lose the game.
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Sorry not much to say from me this cycle except - On the lowest of keys, blocking Burnt should be an option that should be stated here because the likelihood that just Burnt submits the kill is quite high. I hope that by mentioning it here, I've created some IKYK but either way - 1. we block someone else and get to know they are elim + need only 1 elim dead in this Loop 2. we block Burnt which would still mean we need only 1 elim dead in this Loop 3. elims skip a kill which means we have already won the cycle I feel like when you compare case (1) and case(2), elims have a lot more to lose from using case (1), which is why I feel it's highly likely that Burnt submits the kill. Maybe.
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yes. and could we please get on board with e!Coco? even disregarding the vote to save burnt, we have burnt's n2b scan as coco and we had coco testing waters on Mistfallen train when the fake-scan was revealed without really committing, to see if we would believe it or not. so v!Mistfallen, v!Doc? leaves us 3/4 in [Coco, Burnt, Hael, TwinStorm] -> 2/3 in [Coco, Hael, TwinStorm] I think I am still quite wary about v-reading Doc but hmm, I am leaning more village than not I guess. I feel bad about exe-ing Hael next cycle to 'ensure' we win the cycle, I really do not want to do it. I don't know, perhaps I'll sleep on it. There's always Archer xD NOTE: we need to be wary of a lack of kill if the elims have already lost the cycle. could be used to frame someone or us wrongly assuming that bremen block actually blocked the elim kill.
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Hmm, perhaps I mis-remembered but I thought Burnt voted Mistfallen in D2B. I'll try to be awake for rollover but I might doze off >> I'm getting paranoid that we've gone horribly wrong, but still the path we're taking makes logical sense. The only other team which would be possible is Mistfallen/Doc and most of us believe Mistfallen is more village than Burnt. If you are willing to bank on Hael being village (I agree with you here, I do think he is quite moderately village as well), then from our PoE, just [Coco, TwinStorm, Hael] is winning because we had concluded 2 at least elims in [Coco, TwinStorm, Hael].
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I am slightly busy for maybe 4-6 hours, so I will have time to re-read Burnt before the EoT, but a food for thought is - If Burnt was suspicious of Mistfallen in Day 2-B (need to confirm upon re-read), why would she scan Coco in Night 2-B?? I think when the scan occurred is also quite convenient and as equally important as who was scanned. The fact that N3B was when she claims to have scanned Mistfallen speaks volumes because it does mean they were hard-pushing for a victory this Loop.
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I don't know if she was online when it happened but remember that Archer was on Burnt and maybe she knew he would shift? Sequence of events - Burnt votes me here. I don't know, I keep flip-flopping about them. This feels like an LHF vote, where they don't know who else to vote for, and I was an easy target. Doc votes Burnt and it's 3-3-2-2 now. (Mist-Burnt-Stick-Divergent) Ash moves from Mist to Burnt. 4-2-2-2 Burnt's lead now solidifying. TUM votes Divergent. 4-3 Coco votes Divergent. 4-4. Ash moves off Burnt to vote me. 4-3 Wonko votes Burnt to create the tie again. Archer is the decisive vote as he moves off Burnt and onto Divergent. 5-3. Ash back on Burnt to make it 5-4. Or maybe they had 2 plans for Loop 2 depending on who got exed in the first Turn, they would try to get villagers exed of course but they'd let thing run its course and see who got exed and then take it from there? She does say he kinda wanted to talk to elims (villagers) in the dead doc so perhaps manipulation from there if she got exed? But no, honestly, simplest answer is teammate!Archer.
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Okay I've started to go through Mistfallen's post, but no, they're irrevocably village, I will not continue their re-read as I feel like it is pointless because its quite set in my mind as Mistfallen. This means at least 1 elim in [Doc, Burnt]. Agreed Doc's posts in Loop 2 maybe implies Doc/Burnt not e/e but I will have to look into them more deeply now. This brings us to at least 2 elims in [Coco, Hael, TwinStorm]. Makes me feel better about voting out Coco, not gonna lie. And at most 1 elim in [Araris, Stick, Wonko, Drake, Divergent, Archer], but realistically, for me, it can only be [Archer] in that group. Day 2C - Vote Burnt with TwinStorm side-train -> If Burnt dies, Doc is evil and we keep that info for Loop 4. This does not necessarily mean Burnt isn't evil. This would be the case where we need to rethink Burnt-Coco e-e case -> Exe TwinStorm next? -> If TwinStorm dies, Doc is village, Burnt evil -> Exe Hael next to finish off the [Coco, Hael TwinStorm] bracket I still don't understand Doc's (claimed) hesitancy to not go for Stone Mask. If you are village, you make absolutely sure that Stone Mask does not end up in elim hands. Why are you worried about how it would be perceived if you take it? You go for it and then convince us you are village, surely.
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Yeah, I'm quite disheartened and a bit lost that there is now a possibility that Burnt has the Stone Mask and we could have voted her out yesterday. I'm sorry. There is a possibility, however, that Scents Mask was purchased by a 3rd teammate and not Coco, in which case both Coco and Burnt could have afforded the Stone Mask. Still, I apologize. Agreed with everything here. If TJ/Mist/Burnt team, why create a crossfire in the first place? I agree that I am not usually the most vocal of the villagers. I usually just put forward my ideas and just hope it makes sense to people but there have been many times I wished I had pushed a bit more to convince other people when I had found out I was right after the fact. Now, I don't know if I'm right this time, but this is me trying. I agree that going for Burnt is absolutely the right move here. We'll create a long enough train and then pivot off to a secondary target. I will note that for the last Turn and a half, Doc has been increasingly motivated on proving he does not have the Stone Mask than on solving the game. Therefore, I am fully ignoring any attempts to prove that they do not have Stone Mask. I'll tell you why, e!Doc never NEVER equips the Stone Mask without "clearing" themselves by proving they do not have the Mask. They ONLY equip the mask N2C in preparation for D3C, because they know they would never come under fire in this Day. As such, I am least interested in exe-ing a possible e!Stone!Doc (because y'all will kill me if I propose exe-ing them this cycle over Burnt and they are always surviving D3C). So, currently on-board with the plan to exe Burnt with the side-train Twin (or Doc). Meanwhile, I'll think about a potential team in [Burnt, Coco, Archer, Doc, TwinStorm]. Sigh.
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The talk with Ap, in fact, was NOT helpful. First, Ap refused to let him look at those fancy, expensive Masks. "I'm sorry, you can only buy Masks if you have enough rupees." Hmph. What if I did not want to buy it? I just wanted to use it once and return it. Ap should start loaning them out. If that were not enough, Ap wouldn't say who bought the Stone Mask. "I'm sorry but we cannot reveal that information." What was the need for secrecy? What if he had sold the Mask to someone MISCHIEVOUS? Of course, he wouldn't care about that, the greedy salesman. "Masks are to be used", he says. Well, yes! By me! But you won't lend it to me! Hmph. Cosmetica huffed indignantly at the injustice as he stormed out of the shop. ed1t: Err, I thought Ap was the Mask Salesman. I just realised he's the Apprentice. You can tell how how little I have RPed in the game >> Well, just use Ap or Masked Salesman interchangeable here, whatever makes more sense >>
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Sigh, I guess we can test it out next cycle where Doc votes someone and someone votes Doc. Elims cannot muddle with this because they can only remove 1 vote at most. @Doc12, any reason you did not submit the purchase order? Did you just forget or...? This is why I wanted someone to get the Circus Mask SMH >> I guess the plan might have been that they were so confident we would exe Mistfallen first which would give time for Burnt to buy the Mask >> The good thing is that the other fake-scan Burnt gave was that she followed Coco in D2B, which is another evidence that they are paired. So, it's likely that we have 1 down already. It's just that we have to now find another elim to exe other than Burnt. If Doc isn't lying. Sigh. ed1t: A small thing to nit-pick but - why did you feel the need to mention 'obviously'?
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Is this going to be a partial-blackout where we do not know some of the rules? Or is this just a funny way of saying they're vanilla? xD
