Ashbringer

This one, I think:

Valor getting involved would make some sense, but Valor doesn't seem like a particularly... apologetic Intent? Not sure how to read that. A few other things to note, is that if the Wind is someone who's been watching Kal for some time, Valor makes less sense as someone who probably is becoming involved post-Harmony's letter. Another is potential spoilers from a WoB:

It could be this, but it could also be that Wind is aware that Kaladin's been through a lot / been asked by many to do a lot, especially right after RoW. But that still raises the question of how the Wind is aware of that (and potentially why it cares about that, if BAM is one of the options).

I like Jezrien as a possibility. That would explain in part why the Wind started speaking now, right after both Ishar temporarily regained some clarity and Kaladin swore the 4th Ideal. We really only have Kalak’s theory that he faded to the Beyond. And “the Bondsmith” could be either Dalinar or Ishar. BAM or Tanavast are probably the more likely options, though. Or Roshar’s Wind as a whole. Especially if we’re taking the in-world KoWaT to be by Kaladin (and thus this Wind has likely been around for longer than he realizes). BAM I feel would reach out to Shallan and not Kal, though. There’s also Dai-Gonarthis as an Unmade option. We’ve got no idea what that one’s up to.

So this is the second time I've started reading the preview chapters for a Sanderson book, the first time being The Lost Metal. That book had a lot happening in terms of theorizing. But something I remember really enjoying after finishing Rhythm of War was the really big thread of memes. So I thought I might try and get things started Also I like whoever this artwork is.

Just want to give my 2 cents on Lieutenant: I think I agree that, in theory, the Lieutenant and 4B should have a counteracting effect on each other in terms of distro power, with 4B being more Village-aligned towards the start of the game and less towards the ends, with the Lieutenant being theoretically opposite. But I also agree that in practice it didn't work out that way. Part of that's on me (or rather, on how I chose to play Lieutenant) and part of that's how quickly the small distro approached Exelo without most of us realizing. For those of you who went through the Lieutenant Doc, my style choice was basically to play with the wincon I had while I had it, rather than pivot early and go for the Village wincon. So essentially until D3 I was just playing to keep Drake and Coffee alive regardless of my future Village self. I didn't really have any tools to do that, not explicitly. But I think that's fine compared to how high power the Village had the potential to be, and I definitely had tools I could use - mainly my Vote, or claiming to the thread / Elims to either eat an exe that could hurt my Doc Buddies or avoid them being hit by a stray NK. Claiming ended up being largely unnecessary due to Coffee claiming a Doc Buddy, but I could have if I needed to. Then, everything else happened, which I think was clear to most but again: Drake and RBM tied, Coinshot!Coffee went to take a shot at Xino, Drake predicted a shot at himself and redirected Coffee, which then killed Coffee and made me a Villager. Which lead to many things happening, the primary being that there was only one actual Villager left alive besides RBM (CadCom) which kind of meant discussions were a bit dead. Then everything else else happened and here we are. Could I have Village clutched things? Maybe. I was torn between E!Drake-TUO with 4B!Xino or E!RBM-Xino with 4B!TUO, but ultimately V!me went for RBM again. What probably would have been a different story is if I committed to Village early and pushed Drake with RBM+Coffee on D2 (which I probably would have - hindsight is 20/20 of course but I was pretty sure Drake was Evil at that point, Coffee shot was part of what made me less sure). That was always an option I had at my disposal, and probably one of the more swingy parts of Lieutenant, along with the other alignment-switching role Double Agent. It becomes the game of do you play with the wincon you have, or play with the one you're getting. (Assuming of course the Double Agent is effective enough to get themselves shot->converted.) This ended up being a bit rambly but I think my final point is, Lieutenant was fun, and I could have done it a few other ways. And thus continues AraRaash having really, really rotten luck while in space. Edit: also I think This Song is a good theme for the Lieutenant doc

Saaaaame Well that was chaos. Standard order for a SE Space Game, I suppose. I've got a few thoughts, but I don't think I'd have necessarily changed how I played - I had the weirdness of a changing wincon to deal with, and really I have no idea if Drake would have bitten if I'd PMed him asking for an alignment.

Tbh sounds like CadCom’s made up his mind. And I’ve kinda run out of… something’s run out, at least. Not sure what. Had a (minor) cold the last few days so a lot of batteries are low.

I mean, technically speaking I don’t share his alignment I win with the Village, I’m not a registered member. I think.

I mean, yeah. Kind of the playing-to-wincon game. Putting an Elim and a Village Coinshot was rarely ever going to turn out well for me, especially if we didn't connect through PMs first off. Besides, Coffee was going to shoot you any... ... wait huh ... okay then ... well, you did lie to me when I asked you if you did that but I was Village then so understandable. To be clear, I didn't know know. I just assumed that if Lieutenant was in, and the Village was otherwise really high power roles (Intelligence Officer, Radio Officer, Security Officer, Research Officer), then 4B would be in. Plus Xino was playing incredibly far under the radar, like TUO was - which was part of the reason I couldn't really determine whether it was E!you or E!RBM, because it would either be E!Drake and E!TUO with 4B!Xino helping for the tie, or E!RBM and E!Xino with 4B!TUO helping with either the tie or getting an Elim out. (Another reason I was more suspicious of Security Officer Coffee, or otherwise considered that you might have been suspicious of it.) But yeah. Plus there is (or was) a chance of him not being 4B, but if he wasn't, then no one else was going to be.

Is this referring to the bar that's currently slightly on fire? Yeah this is the complicated result of factional games, sometimes. FWIW, one piece of the logic I can tend to use is "what is closest to my actual wincon". Currently my wincon is to eliminate the Elims. (Do I always go closest? No, as evidenced by Shadowblaze and other things, but it is a consideration.)

My idea had been Cadmium-trapping everyone until the ship got back to Roshar... Drake TUO

@CadCom things are a-happening

I'm fine with you stabbing me in the back Drake, but you still stabbed me in the back How would 4B!Xino rig the duel? I mean I have an idea, but wouldn't it be kinda obvious?

Additional piece of evidence: pretty sure no one else in the game could be 4B if there is one Sorry Drake, but us Neutrals need to stick together. (Although TBH, I'd prefer a TUO exe here. We don't really know what he can do.) Ara was back at her post. There wasn't many other places for her to be, and Scadrian mutiny or no mutiny, someone had to keep the lights on and everyone breathing. Technically that was 4B's job, but it was also hers. Not that she could do much with it right now. Besides, as much as she enjoyed a good whisky, no drinking on the job. That was supposed to be the plan after ensuring Relve's and Cofi's survival. Oh, there was plenty that she could do. She had many plans. Most of them involved a central Reactor calibration into a perpendicularity and getting out of dodge. A few of them involved dramatically flopping over dead at the first sign of trouble and taking the shipwoman's funeral. A few of them also involved pulling out a very, very large sword and sticking it somewhere where it hurt. What was not part of her plan was being locked into a box with half of her cognitive abilities and shipped off back to Roshar. That had happened last time and it had been one of the more annoying quick exits she'd had. But as Ara stared at the panel of Life Support indicators, something changed. She'd been holding Relve's indicator for the majority of the day. He may have exquisitely stabbed her in the back, but he still had his indicator on him. He was still alive. That was mostly expected, as the pair of Scadrians had control of most areas. But what she wasn't expecting was for someone to set storming fire to the bar that he was in. Immediately alarms went off throughout the ship, particularly in her own ears. The Fourth Bridge immediately started locking down all the adjacent rooms, and Ara frantically did what she could to assist, while also making an access path for the Engineers to get through. But that was simply her actions; her mind was in a completely different place. Well, both minds were, technically. Someone was fighting back against this, whether against hope or for it. And she'd be Rust and Ruin if she was going to let them fight it alone. Not this time. Jacks. You probably don't know me. But I know you and your fight. I'm here to help, if I can. Even if through only a Command. SURVIVE.

Not a great time for me to run one, unfortunately.

If you two literally stab me in the back after figuratively stabbing me in the back…

Seems like that’s true of a few people… Consider it encouragement to future Seekers to get their actions in And also I think E!Drake would have let me win, and RBM’s stories don’t entirely line up. And to TUO’s point, we probably shouldn’t ignore the 50-50 on Exelo. Idk. Scadrian Infiltrator? Double Agent? 4B? Captain CadCom isn’t a hard guess as the only non-voter last cycle, and you only gave/softed one cycle’s results. But that’s the same as RBM, @xinoehp512 and @DrakeMarshall are still who-knows-where, and I’m trying to organize a Village when I’m not even a Villager. (I win with the Village, techically I’m more an independent contractor) Edit: I see you Xino

You know, I don’t think I believe that but I feel like we have other priorities TUO RBM

@The Unknown Order @xinoehp512? I see you two around You can claim 4B

Certainly does not, does it… This is why we wait for GMs to Note things

I do also think we could have a mass claim. We've got roles from Me, CadCom, RBM, and Drake. That leaves TUO and Xino as the odd ones out, and there's probably one more Elim or DA between TUO/Xino/CadCom. RBM and Drake is the better look-through but we've got other options. @RoyalBeeMage, what does your Research hold this cycle?

So was it more about RBM than Drake? Because the main reason I (and Coffee, I think) thought he was Evil was because he was pushing for my win so hard in the doc, even after it became clear that that would force an early Exelo. But now I haven’t won, Coffee’s flipped Village, and I actually have an incentive to think about things.

Yup. For the maybe 2 other people who haven’t figured it out by now. Wasn’t going to claim but we weren’t exactly being subtle about it But, that means I’m Village now. And means I can talk about a few things. I didn’t explicitly get alignments from anyone - would be somewhat of a different story if I did. But, The Unknown Order, I’m relatively curious if you had a better reason for saving Drake than I did, because I was about 70% sure he was Evil at that point…