Ashbringer

Schrodinger had thought it was two. Sorry, I've been busy between school and two simultaneous SE games... and now possibly the Reckoners RP reboot.

A literal blue moon.

So... do you still want to lynch me? *Gulp* Uhhh... Remember according to Elkanah he didn't see anyone else. I don't know if this is what you mean, but I don't think many people would fake-claim visiting under the eye of a Lookout/Teamwork user. I also don't think that someone who legitimately visited would come out and say they visited, because they'd want to see if he was... Oh. Suddenly things are clicking. Still, I think a better way to go about it would be to first press the Teamworker for info before claiming anything. It's just a messy situation overall. And I think at this point there are enough things stacked up in my head that it's less of a central piece. So I'm staying where I am. Will Elk? Will Pyro? If we all stay, who will win the tie? Stay tuned to find out!!

Hmm. I... I just don't see it. If Elk had come forward and said you visited Pyro, I'm pretty sure we would have all lynched you, narcotics or not. And he wasn't about to come out and say that there were no visitors if he was lying, because Pyro had said that "something happened", which would require a visit. Maaaybe Elim!Elk saw it as a good opprotunity to prove himself, but I don't think it is. Too many variables, especially when it was the 2nd post of the day. Any number of people could have visited Pyro for multiple reasons. Edit: @Elkanah, I know you're active now. Say something.

But why didn't you come forward first? Why did you lie and say you were using Survival on Kynedath when you knew it could only be a matter of time before Elkanah called you out on not doing that? Sure, it turns out that that didn't happen, but why did you lie initially? You behaved consistently with what you said your "plan" was when you revealed yourself, I'll give you that, but it still doesn't make sense. Unless...

AHA! ... wait. More seriously, that's what confuses me. I feel like Village!You would have just admitted you did it via narcotics (especially after Elkanah said that he used Teamwork), and Elim!You would have just stayed silent and let Kynedath take the fall for the coercion (especially after Elkanah came and said his Teamwork didn't work properly). ... although, that improperness could have been a bait to see if anyone would confess. It still might. Thanks to you we know it's not him pretending to cover his own action of Coersion, but who knows?

@Elkanah hasn't been on in 2 hours...

You know, I was a bit because of how much he cropped up in explaining my own state vs yours compared to Elk. But this post has severely decreased that, mainly because it specifically undermines the Elim's chances of winning if the Village follows it. (Although, that could be the point... ). I'm still thinking Illwei > Pyro > Elkanah > wait what my alter ego was the Elim the whole time is still my line of suspicion.

*Cough* Edit: Three upvotes for the word *Cough*. Really?

... but what about my post?

Er... How does that clear me? I technically was in danger and didn't notice. Or was it calling out Kynedath's protection?

I've been writing up a longer analysis-y post, but I figured I should respond to this while I have more of a chance. (Spoilered quote for length.) I cede the point on "jumping on" Pyro suggesting you were planning on targeting Silber. I just didn't go back to check, and it made some level of sense. The problem is, Silber was probably a decent Elim suspect. At least in my eyes. So I didn't know why the Elim would kill him. Assuming there's only one person (the Elim) lying about their action, they would need to have used an action in addition to their kill. But the only way for that to result in a kill aimed at one of us living four redirecting to Silber is if you used Survival on Silber, then tried to kill me, redirecting the kill to you and then to Silber. But I suppose it is based on a flawed premise... Pyro's premise. Hmm. Silber would be unlikely to have protection and is hard to sway on votes. And I am rather interested in Survival loops. Would they just nullify the action entirely? As for the second half: - My vote on Silber was in effort to get him to post. Inactivity in the later rounds tends to irk me much more. It would have been difficult to get a chain going, but not impossible. - I didn't say my reasoning on clearing Kyne was wrong because... it wasn't. Not exactly. Experience could have submitted the kill while under relative protection with Survival, but depending on how roleblocks interact with Survival it would still be risky. If there had been only three Elims, Kyne still was decently likely to have used the kill and then been caught by my roleblock. Pyro's explanation about the Coersion convinced me there was still an Elim under somewhat frantic illegal tools, and I decided that Kynedath fit the bill enough. - My statement didn't solidify Kynedath's lynch, but it unsolidified any real defense that I had previously given him. See above. Plus I was still trying to figure out the implications, notably me being seen by Elk visiting Pyro. - I did manage to catch him in a lie, where he claimed a different action for N3 than he had earlier. (I actually hadn't noticed the earlier claim, but then Pyro linked the post... right in front of Kyne... and he still gave a conflicting answer?) And I was pressing him because he hadn't been answering the several times I'd asked him early in the cycle, where he wasn't under much suspicion. Plus, I was still thinking 1 Elim, which meant that they would have likely gotten Violence N3. I wanted to see who had a verifiable alibi for that night. (I still think Kyne used Violence N3, but there's obviously another Elim out there.) I'll note that Pyro shows up a lot more in this explanation than Elk or even Illwei. I'll be looking into that. But there you go.

Schrodinger confirmed X's Avatar's statement.

Schrodinger pretended that he had a part in this momentous occasion.

(I'd love to post another Faleast mind game RP here, but I'm busy with CS... will do tomorrow if I'm still alive.) Edit: oh yeah, delayed rollover. Might get to one. Edit: TA-DA!!! Faleast had resigned himself to staring at the window. AraRaash had forgotten the name of the third Artemis Fowl book, and all the books Faleast had thought of to be interesting suddenly seemed boring when all put together. The Forgotten controlling his body seemed to be doing well in this... competition, AraRaash had thought. He did notice that the person who'd been removed from the game had only left when his circle had been breached, walking out in disappointment rather than being dragged out on a stretcher. This wasn't a battle to the death. He'd seen for himself that these wars of Rithmatics very well could be. The Glyph of Rending. Nobody here was using it, including their "guest". But Faleast knew that at any moment the lines and creatures drawn by his own fingers could turn into very real powers. "Why is it even here?" he wondered aloud. AraRaash turned up from his book. "This being might be one of the most powerful Rithmatists in this world. He could decimate this competition with ease. So why is he playing? What possible interest could a Forgotten have in a competition between a bunch of his lessers?" AraRaash snickered. Faleast turned to him. "Sorry", he said. "Spoilers". Nice try, but no.

You know, mapping out who used what suspicious abilities would be a lot easier if people used their abilities. Aaaand now I've got two out of three votes. Great. Well, I have nothing new to add because it seems nobody has anything new to add. Assuming that every villager is telling the truth, the Elim actually were trying to kill Silber, unless Elim!Illwei actually used her Survival on Silber in which case the kill could have been meant for me. Well, Illwei. Open to arguments for others. Did anything remotely interesting happen this night?

@Illwei, @Elkanah, care to join the party? This is essentially Lylo. What actions did you guys use?

I... used Survival targeting Illwei. So it's possible whoever it was tried to kill me, it bounced to Illwei, then to Silber.

That's... interesting.

Yep. ... Zillah hasn't been online in 23 hours... Edit: TIME!

One of them's a tell I'm going to keep to myself, as it's something that I'm not sure is a real indicator yet. But Kynedath didn't seem to be contributing much, until Pyro, Elk, and I piled onto him. He'd been monitoring the thread (I'd seen so, in addition to Elk saying so) but not posting. I'd gotten him into a good position, where even as an inactive he was much less suspected than, say, Silber. But he wasn't using that credit at all, just coasting on it until it turned on him. And that's when he started posting and contributing. Kinda like Straw in the last LG. He also seemed to be... overexplaining himself. He claimed he used Survival on Silber, which is fine. But he then said he targeted Silber because "I still don't fully trust him" and went for Safety because "I like protection". Survival on someone who isn't trusted should go without saying, and no one even asked about why he'd chosen which Passion set. It's something I noticed Vapor doing a bit in hindsight. Plus when it comes to gut reading, I'm willing to defer to other's judgement. My reasons might not have been the strongest, but they lined up with who Pyro and Elkanah seemed to suspect, and both had seemed village-enough for me.

To respond to this, I’ve tried to avoid saying I’m clear because of something I’ve done. The corroborated protection from Elk and this are exceptions, but I’d still say Pyro and Elk are the ones saying I’m village over me. And, it would still be a really weird gambit as an Elim. I’d essentially cleared Kynedath for as long as I was trusted, and I’d like to think my protection combined with Elk’s confirmation was doing a decent job of that. I could have instead pushed harder on Silber or Elkanah, which wouldn’t have been uncharacteristic of me. That would have gotten the mislynch that the Elims need to win the game. Instead, I revealed that we were playing the game and our assumptions - including the one that “cleared” me from using last night’s Elim kill - were all wrong. Moving on from that, I didn’t know if there was one elim or two. But it was a whole lot easier to try and analyze in the case of one, because that way we only had to find the one whose action wasn’t confirmed by someone else (before we learned that doesn’t affect the Elim kill). But there were so many unconfirmable actions that I didn’t have much of a chance to narrow it down past myself, Kynedath, and somewhat Pyro. Predicting the numbers of Elims is somewhat dangerous, as it’s a way for the Elims to disguise how many Elims there actually are. But I’d say a good set of players know that, which leads to Elims pushing their correct number. Well, sometimes. But enough for it not to be a clear. Finding we’re wrong about the number of Elims is one thing, which can be easily adapted to. Finding out we’re wrong about the fundamental rules of the game, that we’ve based all our analysis on... that’s quite another. As for turning on Kynedath (and you, to some degree) there’s a few things I’ve noticed that raise my suspicions in addition to what’s happening on the surface.

I'd still like action claims from Silber. Also, if you're going to be using Narcotics I'd rather you (anyone) claim it this turn. Knowing how many loose cannons we have is a good idea, and I'd prefer not to let Elims use it as an excuse later for something bad that happens, regardless of what it may have done previously.

So there's still one more out there. My guess is Illwei, but it still could be just about anybody. Pyro, you dead? (Edit: Caught)