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Ashbringer

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Everything posted by Ashbringer

  1. Ashbringer
    ... this makes me somewhat nervous. I don't really trust Ventyl, but I've said that in every game I've played... I kind of like making a tie. And I'm staying off the current two until I have time to look harder at Ventyl. But that Venture post didn't come... so... Xino until Elkanah someone can convince me otherwise. I don't like people piggybacking off my own reasoning, I don't like PM shenanigans, and I don't like delaying analysis and inactivity. So here we go. I'll be back before rollover, but I'm out for a walk for a while.
  2. Ashbringer
    I haven't seen anything to indicate Venture being overly suspicious... the only thing they did was push Illwei, which I was one biased game away from doing myself. And the fact that he scrambles from one position to another within a single post actually makes me read him Village, because he's probably not typing out pre-planned ideas. And I think he was gut-reading Illwei instead of gathering a suspicion from the kill. The Lotus swap is another reason I trust him - it may give the Elims the chance to get a really useful role for them, but so far whoever got the Adjudicator (from Lotus or not, as an Elim or not) hasn't been using it... I wonder... @Elkanah, is your "contact" Venture? If he is we may have an issue, because if Iadon swapped Lotus and Venture because Venture suggested it... I don't know if that makes sense, but that could be a ploy from a fairly experienced player to snag a good role. But I'm assuming for now that didn't happen. If so, it's a good move from Iadon and a good suggestion from Venture. So I see no reason to lynch him. Hmm. @xinoehp512, you said you would make a post on Venture today... well, this cycle ends in 2.5 hours. I'll stay off voting for now but I'll be watching to see if that post comes. I don't like following the whims of an unknown coalition, and I'd rather have a vote today that matters one way or another.
  3. Ashbringer
    Okay. I agree with Straw that we shouldn't be lynching any new players D1, and I'll extend for me personally to CadCom (a returning player after a fairly long break) and Shard of Reading (a semi-returning player... who I may or may not have killed D1 in the last game he played in). Shard seems to be playing rather forcefully for D1, but the lack of early activity doesn't make that terribly surprising. elturT may give me a bit of a headache trying to spell, but seems to have been somewhat-ish-cleared by virtue of not being told the game rules. I'll take it for a round or two of narrowing down. I'm feeling good about Straw and Matrim for general guidance, and Illwei for activity prompting. Everyone else... null for now.
  4. Ashbringer
    Er... hi everyone! I had a really busy, tired day yesterday so I didn't have much time for either game, and the time I had was devoted mostly to the LG. I'm going to have lunch soon and then I'll try and post my thoughts. No promises on a vote D1, because I tend not to like those.
  5. Ashbringer
    I didn't really notice anything in there that would drastically affect the kill placement, it's more of the potential for it to happen that bugs me. If the Elims decided they wanted to kill Venture or Ventyl, seeing Xino post being suspicious of them may make them swap in an attempt to lynch them later. I'm not entirely sure why that would be the case, but it's another variable thrown in to mostly quiet nights. More likely would be they swap to Xino based on it, as it would seemingly fit their kill pattern. But that didn't happen, unless Xino happens to be a third actor. It just seems... almost flippant? That's not the right word. Like he didn't really consider the risk of posting then, even if it was a low one.
  6. Ashbringer
    I’m not sure how I feel about this. Xino’s post felt slightly off to me. Mainly due to the timing: about an hour before rollover on a Night turn, which would give the Elims enough time to switch their kill but doesn’t leave time for a lot of Villagers to read through it. He was also viewing the thread for the last 15 minutes before the previous rollover, which... he could have been typing and lost the rollover but I don’t get the feel of that from this post. It feels retroactive. There’s apparently a PM reason going around that Xino shouldn’t be lynched? Elkanah, is this you talking about what Mist was saying or did you also get a PM? I haven’t recieved anything, which is... unsurprising, considering I’ve been vocal that I don’t really like PMs... but I still don’t like people talking in PMs without me Not voting on him now - he’s here, so I can make a judgement on his actions instead of his inaction - but I’m not reading Xino village yet.
  7. Ashbringer
    So...
  8. Ashbringer
    Something tells me this is a late rollover for everyone...
  9. Ashbringer
    Cool! I dub thee "First of the Person".
  10. Ashbringer
    Speaking of the fight, when that settles down, could we have some of Alythia's creatures attack Byron? I can write a post about him in a general Alleycity thread (or perhaps back in A Masked Dance). I have a few ideas that could bounce off of that. @kenod
  11. Ashbringer
    Tyrian shook himself. Something had... bugged him. He couldn't tell what. Cinder finally flew out from his coat. "I'm not sure either. I'll go look," the spren said, zipping out into the crowd. The Dustbringer finally turned back towards his new... employer. Show him? What would he need to show him? He already knew his strength. What else was there? He picked up a ruby sphere he'd left on the counter, watching Althea from the corner of his remaining eye. Then he walked over to Silas, hands held in limp curls like the sickles on his back. Cinder soon followed. "Then let's go." @Sorana
  12. Ashbringer
    Okay, so my "Elim tell" is apparently just an "Illwei tell". But we did get group PMs open, which will hopefully produce... something.
  13. Ashbringer
    Well, as far as I know nobody targeted me with anything...
  14. Ashbringer
    He did good analysis on all the possibilities relating to Devotary being an actor who may or may not have protected Lotus. I'm staying out of his repeated discussion on voting on you. Speaking of which, did you do any acrobatics last night? Or just a vanilla action?
  15. Ashbringer
    Hi Xinoehp. I can see you viewing the thread. Have anything to say? (If you're typing a post already... er... I'm sorry and please continue.)
  16. Ashbringer
    Welp. This is going to be a rush to get some reads in. Most of this is going to be based off of what happened today. Xino: Has been quite inactive, even under vote pressure. Their profile says they have visited since I voted on them, and no posts. So Mild Elim, with a dash of please be active. Mist: Inactive for the first day-ish, but backed up by Vapor (or was that the other way around?). Did a good job doing some analysis and posting reads. ... and now she votes Venture. Er... Null. Ashbringer: seems to be behind on their RP, but otherwise I agree with everything they've said. Mild Village. Matrim: I'm a little off-put by him immediately going for Illwei after I stop doing that, but I don't think that's AI. Otherwise has been quite active doing analysis. Mild Village. Elkanah: Has been working pretty hard analyzing almost everything, and has mostly stayed out of the Lotus-Illwei-Gears debacle to go after the inactive Xino. I don't see any reason not to trust him, besides as a Possible PM Networker gone bad. But that's an unlikely scenario. Mild Village. Illwei: Grr. I've said before that I'm reading Illwei as somewhat Elim, between the chaoticness of posts and the Elim-tell that I noticed in Illwei last LG. The problem is... I honestly don't trust myself enough to say that's an unbiased read after soundly reading Illwei last LG. He does feel like he's playing partially differently (although that's probably what Elim!Illwei would do...) and the tell is both less present and very unpresent in others. Although now he's jokingly claiming Elim.... and now he's claiming Actor. ... I don't know, and I'm sticking with that. I'll put it as a Null. Kings_Way: Doesn't post often, and is rather new, but advocating for killing the Monk isn't a good sign. Mild Elim. Their later posts have improved a bit. Silber: One four-word post. A slightly bitter Null. Lotus: Claims former Adjudicator, now swapped, backed up by Elkanah and not refuted by anyone. While there's a good amount of chaos surrounding her, now that she's not an immediate danger for the Elims to kill I don't see a reason to lynch her. Mild Village to Null. Vapor: Only did RP today, and apparently had a large post eaten by the shard yesterday... but hasn't continued it. Mild Elim. Ventyl: Seems to be their chaotic self... I disagree with their reasons to vote Lotus but they make some sense. But I'm not very good at judging Ventyl... Null. Ad Venture: I haven't played with Venture before (besides the QF... we don't talk about the QF), but he seems to be doing good analysis and is resolute. I will likely vote to save him if it comes to that, at least for this round. Mild Village. TJ Shade: Has been quite inactive, but for a reason. Null. That's all I have time for right now... but I'll be watching. I'll try to adjust this to more include D1/N1's activities at a later date.
  17. Ashbringer
    Well, from what I know about Silber's activity his time zone is probably asleep right now, so I doubt I'll get a reaction from him. He also hasn't been on in a day, where Xino was last on an hour ago... So... Silber (this feels familiar), Xinoehp? @xinoehp512, any thoughts? (Crosses fingers that Elkanah doesn't ninja me with a retraction)
  18. Ashbringer
    Inside the pear was a Fish.
  19. Ashbringer
    World's Second Tallest Office TowerTM.
  20. Ashbringer
    It was located on the infinitieth floor.
  21. Ashbringer
    ... as soon as I commit to staying out of Illwei and Lotus and stop asking questions, someone else takes up the standard. Of course. I'll do more complicated reads tomorrow and probably a Faleast post (because I need to get off the Shard and do my homework), but in short: Since nobody contested the Iadon swap, I think Lotus is Village, or at least NAI save for claiming easily. It's possible theirs some weirdness with Lotus not getting swapped, but that would incriminate another so I doubt it. I'm honestly reading Illwei as somewhat Elim. Partly because of the confusion, partly due to the tell I found last LG. But on that vein... I think I'm honestly too biased at this point to be a good judge of Illwei's alignment. It's certainly not the same as last LG. So I'm going to recuse myself from this one, at least for a round or two. Illwei did a good job explaining himself with reasoning that makes logical sense even if I don't really agree, the tell showing up again only (well, mainly) on Illwei kinda suggests it might just be an Illwei thing over an Elim thing, and I don't like building reads off of text and mysterious tells anyway. I like provable details, which are sorely lacking D2. So I'm staying out of this today, and am open to other options. I'd be fine with a contribution crusade on Xino, within reason. Actually, let's go back to basics. Silber, @Lord_Silberfarben, you have been poked. Do you have any thoughts on the Gears-Lotus-Illwei interactions or on any alternatives? (@xinoehp512, consider yourself poked with this question as well. My vote doesn't tend to stay on Silber long.) Lastly for the night: *Cough*
  22. Ashbringer
    Well, TJ may have been inactive at that point. And I think Ventyl was just trying to make a point because his vote came after Gears had quite a few votes (although predicting Ventyl is ... not one of my strong suits, to say the least). I’m completely misunderstanding this, aren’t I. I just thought it was odd how so many people took Lotus’ side and went after Gears instead.
  23. Ashbringer
    Your ideas make sense (or I mostly agree with what Mist said). The order your presenting them in doesn’t, at least to me. We’ve already talked over and around and back again on the two Lotus votes. For the “Theory” post, I feel like that should have been at least slightly mentioned in your original explanation post. Because posting it in response to me feels like you repeating what I said in my post instead of a qualification to your own analysis... The “Rhetorical Question” was just me confused on why you quoted that specific part of my post. I understood what you meant... I think. Reads to come probably in a few hours - I’m going to be busy for quite a while.
  24. Ashbringer
    ...? That was a rhetorical question.
  25. Ashbringer
    I've been ninja'd... a lot. Sort of. So here's my general thoughts: Okay. For now I think we can safely say that Devotary wasn't targeting Lotus. If she was, then Iadon's swap wouldn't be able to go through. In turn, that would say that the Elims didn't try to kill Lotus. Hmm. Perhaps a test: is there anyone else who claims to have had their role swapped, or more specifically have had their role swapped where the other individual couldn't be Lotus? If Lotus is sticking with Adjudicator being swapped away, then anyone else who got a different role could prove that didn't happen. Although that leans towards Elim!Lotus, which would mean that if Devotary protected Lotus then the Elims would have had to tried to kill one of their own... and failed... but Devotary could have protected anyone. I think I understand your voting logic now, but I didn't understand it before. Next time probably just add something in front of the vote signaling to where you're getting it from if you're referring to another post. But there's a bit of a problem with this logic: that "some Meta reason". Just looking at the rulesets, the best course of action for the Elims likely would have been to try and kill Lotus, get that vote penalty, and call it a day. The problem is, it's very obvious it's a good play. The Elims know it, the Villagers know it, and after the debate in D1 I'd say nobody has an excuse not to know the risks. And that turns and makes it not so great of a move. (This continues assuming Village!Lotus.) 1) Being predictable is dangerous for Elims. In many games there's more of a chance of protection; here it's not so easy especially in the first few rounds, but there's still a lingering idea of not killing the person most likely to be protected / Lookout-ed (ie Teamwork in LG69) / redirected. (The same applies to Villagers - the more predictable we act, the more the Elims can work around us. 2) Continuing on that vein of predictability, Iadon swapping Lotus was nearly ordered by the Village. And while killing a role swapped Lotus isn't a "loss", it's also not really any better or worse than killing a random, especially since there are other targets for Elims to be killing. And it leads into the last part: 3) Setting up a mislynch. Lotus isn't dead; why? Her being an Elim would certainly explain it, but it's not the only explanation. This is, of course, almost the definition of I-Know-You-Know, so don't take this as a full-on accusation (... yet ). There's a lot of other things that could happen, like Iadon interacting with Devotary's Actor ability weird, possibly two Actors, and an Elim or even a believing Iadon covering for an unswapped Lotus. Or she could be an Elim. Speaking of which, does anyone else find it weird how votes never really stuck to Lotus D1? Just TJ's and Ventyl's (well, and Gears's). ... I don't think my vote will go on either Illwei or Lotus. I'm weirded out by both, but between Illwei bias from LG69 and relative certainty that Lotus isn't the Adjudicator anymore I don't know if either deserve my suspicion. Depends on responses I guess.
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