Mat

Mat gulped. He almost ran away right then and there, and probably should have, but he needed the food. There were only so many berries in the woods, and honestly he was surprised at how successful he'd been at fishing the creek he'd found. His luck could only go on for so long. Figuring his opponent wouldn't be expecting it at all, he lunged for the meat, swatting her arm away and praying he wouldn't be stabbed.

Well, I think it's safe to say RNG had an influence in this game I think the outcome was fair seeing as Vorros got scanned, and I'm glad either way that we chose correctly out of Devo/Araris. I think I did alright analysis-wise myself. Special shout out to Luck and Conq for their efforts, you guys did really well.

Still feel bad about not finishing LotR, but I’ll play. I’ll figure out a character later, even though I also don’t really RP that much :P. Also, PSA— This will serve as a test game since it’ll be the first that clashes with the new school year for me, so we’ll see how it goes. Shouldn’t be too bad I think.

Another thing Conq was right about, then. (Sorry, Conq) I think it was Conq who suggested that was what happened, anyway.

How’d you kill Shining?

Well then. At least we were right. Araris, not sure what you can do when you’ll likely be RBd here, since Luck and I are functionally useless, but try something I guess. It’s fortunate Luck survived, that gives us a shot. I’m probably the kill, Luck’s self protection is unpredictable and Araris would survive. Maybe though, but honestly it’s kinda whatever at this point :P. I had an okay run and I’m glad I listened to Araris’ reason. Though—Devo, I guess that’s two Compulsions, so you got lucky with the 40% on the second? Nicely done, I suppose. Looks like the game will be a coin flip. Unless I’m missing something mechanics wise that gives either team an edge :P. Shorter rollover is preferable.

Sorry if I blew this, btw Maybe that doesn’t need to be said but I want to say it anyway

I don’t think Sart and Araris are evil together anymore. Not linking might be more effective probability-wise but that doesn’t make it more likely there’s two elim channelers.

Not accepting defeat, from my PoV I don’t know who’s evil. Linking does increase the chance of the weave succeeding due to the complexity decreasing. @Sart what are your stats?

I’ll be the first to say, if that’s the singular reason, bad idea I hardly trust myself half the time so idk I do think Devo is a better kill rn though

Gonna try to reply to this line-by-line, my responses in bold orange. I also took out the parts of Araris' post that I have nothing to say about, which was only one paragraph about Luck I think. Smhhhhhhhhhhh xD Devotary I no longer see a Sart/Forsaken team as valid, though I guess it's possible there... isn't... a Forsaken? Though I think two Shepherd claims implies there is, plus the missing votes. Idk what else they could be, anyway. Myrddraal, but again the missing votes. And I doubt Sart/Araris planned far enough ahead to lay the groundwork for an argument against their teaming like that, or maybe I'm overestimating how much planning that would take to begin with. Probably not moving this vote, but uh, don't count on it :P. I'd recommend to Luck that she switches so that we have the best chance of fighting Compulsion, and that she considers Araris' post since I think it makes a lot of sense. I normally can gut read Araris pretty well and I haven't really felt anything especially evil from him this game, and I think village reading Sart's posting (early game, anyway) for the first time literally ever should count for something xD

I was thinking of this, but yeah rereading D3 and N3 they look paired to me lol And it's not what you asked, but a Sart/Vorros interaction that looks unpaired to me is here, and then on Araris' part I don't see a point for e!him posting this. Neither are super clearing on any part, though, and both of them had times where they lightly fought the Vorros exe (kind of, for Araris). Sart by jumping on Vorros trying to mech his way out of it, and Araris by pushing Shining to claim, which Vorros also advocated for. Which I still think was a bad idea and think it got Shining killed, but that's beside the point :P. Araris I'm back to not wanting to risk losing to a 2p team today, I really don't think e!Devo has another teammate- It wouldn't be Sart, and I don't think it's Luck.

Having reread the previous cycles, Sart and Araris have interactions that look very unpaired (Yes, Araris, that's what you've been saying the whole time I realize that, sorry, had to check for myself :P) but the short of it is that I don't... know xD Araris has v/e looking interactions with Vorros too Sigh Devotary I guess the issue I'm having is that if I'm wrong about this, we're more likely to lose to a 2p team then if I'm wrong voting off Araris.

This, specifically, there's no reason for e!Luck to bother writing such a long response to v!Conq here (or any response at all). Besides that, her entire D1 play (and the other turns, but D1 is a standout) is the most active/put together/high volume of any of her games, and she's never been elim before. So I'd be surprised if she was elim here. I think it's possible for sure, and I'd be really impressed, but it's not going to be where I look first. I don't think a Devo/Luck/Vorros team is probable if only because all three of them voted Illwei on D1, and I don't see how that makes any sense :P. Devo being on at the end of that cycle and being Forsaken checks out for the Conq train missing a vote (she was perfectly able to use Compulsion to cover her tracks) so that's something. I do agree with Luck saying that she doubted e!Araris just wouldn't cover his tracks at all though. I have no idea what to do with that, and Devo and Araris were on the same train every following exe. Here's what I said about v!Conq earlier: And that still seems like it could be viable. It doesn't add any new info or anything though :P. I think in regards to the D1 VC, if there are two elims left, one is Sart. Otherwise that VC doesn't make any sense. If there are only one left, I think it being Devo works, or Araris. Mmm I'm gonna switch Devotary EDIT: Mmm I'm gonna switch back. Luck's right. Sart isn't e/e with Devotary from his posting today. Araris

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Ok, that’s fair. I’ll give you that. Still gotta reread, but that’s a good point.

Yeah, but that’s a flawed argument in that the same could be said about Sart/Devo being e/e. Unless you think the second is Luck. I’m becoming somewhat sympathetic towards it just being you or Devo and that’s it but I guess we’ll see

Do you think we’re dealing with one or two elims?

Not really what this is tbh Picture like two people in a domed arena, fighting it out, but in thread mafia game form. In this case Devo and Araris aren’t really talking to each other so it wasn’t a perfect time for that term but we do have a 1v1, kinda

That’s what I’ve been saying, yeah. But I’m worried it’s just a one person team and if we have a thunderdome here it might be worth exploring that. I haven’t decided. At the very least, I want to know where Sart votes. We can’t count on him not changing last minute though.

I care. Helps me figure out who to vote. Do you think that a solo Forsaken is more likely? Edit: @Luckspren it was

That seems like a good reason for me not to move my vote, then. Occam’s Razor and all. I never know how to apply that but like I don’t think I can have that be a reason for his innocence.

What about Araris is more obvious than Devo? They seem about the same to me

Hmm, yeah. Forgot about the Forsaken’s own vote not counting somehow :P. Still though a coin flip isn’t ideal by any means. Leaning towards Araris but I definitely will want to reread some things before committing to that. Sart, Luck, where are your heads at? Edit: Actually though I do think Sart legitimately might be the best kill here if we think two elims, who else would be Araris/Devo’s teammate.

Actually wait, not to be extremely pessimistic or anything, but like, if we’re at 3-2 and there’s a Forsaken then we’ve already lost :P. I mean, they can just use compulsion and swing the exe their way even if every villager votes correctly. That is, unless Devo and Araris are both weaveblocked. So I guess what I’m getting at is, that should be something that is attempted here.