Furamirionind

I am glad someone healed Snipexe... Did someone heal Dr Dapper as well or was that him healing himself? Ok... Well Mayor Rath has made an appearance it seems... : ) It seems most of my analysis last cycle was misguided at least to some extent. I am going to need to reread the thread. Edit: @Cadmium Compounder no, the stormfather cannot be converted.

I struggle with lines like this. Your first sentence is basically saying that Rath's argument for your lynch is insubstantial, yet your second sentence is saying that it is? I hesitate to defend Lopen more than I already have, as I risk getting myself into a mindset that I *should* defend him, even when there is little evidence. However, Lopen is not sitting quietly in the background. He is still contributing and voting early in cycles. While he hasn't posted another post analyzing a specific post from someone, he is still posting analysis. In his most recent post, he talked about voting (how people should do it more), who may have been converted, and then reflects on Devotary's analysis on who may be Sja-Anat. I agree Lopen would be a good convert target, but right now, I would go after people who seem suspicious or have a higher chance of being Sja-Anat (we may still be able to hit an extra life). My first thought when reading Lum's post was that this seems to be two elims (Lum and Rath) distancing in the wake of a likely lynch on one or both of them, as there has been a lot of suspicion on Lum and Rath, and in Devotary's post, she still lists them (if I understand her list) as Rath being most likely to be Sja-Anat, followed by Lumgol. This sort of thing would be scary for the elim team to see, especially if one of them actually is Sja-Anat. My immediate response to my thinking this could be distancing, is Rath's analysis and vote on Lum seems rather convincing to me. This gives us several possible scenarios: 1. Village!Rath || Village!Lum - Unfortunate circumstance... Bad reads by everyone on everyone basically. Bandwagon on Fifth likely then had nothing to do with Lum. I personally think this is unlikely though given Lum's response to Rath… The more I look at Lum, the more I think she may be evil. 2. Village!Rath || Elim!Lum - Rath doing good analysis and catching Lum. I think Lum would likely have been the C1 convert due to using her village playstyle at the start of the game. Once it was pointed out she acts more enthusiastic as a villager though, her playstyle this game becomes a big IKYK, as she knows we are looking for her to seem "enthusiastic", and can deliver that. That alone is no longer a good reason to keep her alive in my opinion. 3. Elim!Rath || Village!Lum - Rath sees a bandwagon on himself and is probably trying to divert it onto Lum. This could work, however once Lum flips village, eyes will turn back to Rath. This only helps short term, where a bus at this point may help more long term assuming he is not Sja-Anat 4. Elim!Rath || Elim!Lum - This is the most exciting option, and likely has Rath as Sja-Anat as he and Lum are trying to keep him alive so hard. Pushing the lynch on Lopen due to being a likely convert, is an easy way to create mislynches on good villagers. (I would know, as I did something similar in MR32 where I suspected people for "not dying the turn it would have made the most sense") All this being said, nothing I say here is conclusive. In fact most of it is speculation. But Lum's post feels *really* out of place to me, and this is the best I could do to describe why. I will definitely be voting for either Rath or Lum this cycle, but am a bit conflicted about which one. Out of the two, I think Rath has a significantly greater chance for being Sja-Anat, but I think Lum's death will provide us more information about the elims (whether or not she is one).

I know I said I was going to take a harder look at Lopen, but when I started to look at him, I just started feeling like he was village again. So I decided to look at Rath. Now, Rath has done 2 big analysis posts as of this moment. D1: Lopen had a lengthy response to this post, which dramatically shaped my opinion of Lopen, and slightly modified my opinion of Rath: Going through Rath's analysis from previous games, when talking about meta stuff, Rath often times uses words like "i think" or "believe" or "opinion". However when doing player analysis, he is very fact focused, and rarely uses those words. When I first read Lopen's post, I kind of dismissed it as that is just how people naturally speak in Seattle. However, looking at Rath's history, it seems out of place. This is Rath's response to Elandera saying that his vote has little substance. It is also written much more like how I would expect Rath to talk. Rath also seems to have a history (at least in the games I have played with him) of doubling down on his vote when it is questioned, so this is also very like him. However, I am not fond of the language, "Fifth's criticism of Lum is slowly swaying my thoughts that way...". It sounds almost as if when he cast the vote he didn't think Lum was elim. N2: These sort of summaries are something that I have seen Rath do a couple times now. However, the conclusions that Rath comes to after the summary does not directly correlate to what is said in the post. The post goes through what everyone does and summarizes that, however, few conclusions and little analysis is actually shared. At the end of the post, Rath says what his alignment leanings are on the various players, but doesn't say why. None of these (except possibly Devotary), have clear reasons described in the post. Looking at some previous times Rath has done something similar: LG51: This was a bit more specialized than what we see in this game. It also describes fewer events in more detail. While similar, this is still a very different post, so I won't emphasis it too much. LG50: This post is basically the same kind, a summary of the past (couple) turn's events. The difference here is that the summary at the end goes into more detail about Rath's opinions, and why he has those opinions. Not a ton, bust still more than just saying "village lean on playerX" Not all of what I say here is substantial, but all of this together (and the sudden lynch discussion on Lopen instead of Rath, who I think should be being discussed instead), will direct me to put my vote on him. Shqueeves Rathmaskal

Better busy being on fire than being on fire and not busy about it... : P Lopen absolutely could have been converted, but I don't like the case against him. Ark's seems to have some logic behind it... Sart's seems so insubstantial that I almost can't see him being an elim purely from fear of being called out on that analysis. No way has Lopen gone under the radar. I have spent some time analyzing him, as has one other player (Devotary maybe? can't remember of the top of my head) I am fairly confident in Lopen starting the game as a villager. Perhaps Lopen is a masterful elim that has fooled me. I will probably go read some of their previous games just to assuage my conscience that this is not the case. However, everything they have done so far has put a giant green flag over their head to me. Fifth was similar, and I mentioned that I getting strong village vibes from Fifth. I am also getting them from Lopen, but have slightly more evidence to support that. Because of that, I am going to double down in Lopen's defense until I have a solid reason not to. When I am not so tired, I will also reread Lopen's posts and post an updated opinion as well. In the mean time, I am tempted to vote on Ark just because this change in play-style is extremely sudden and without prompting... However, it would be foolish of me to go after someone for doing something I like... So I will hold off on Ark. As a placeholder/poke until I get around to looking at everything, @Shqueeves I would love to hear some of your thoughts. Shqueeves Edit: I literally just woke up (and likely will be going back to sleep in a moment), so hopefully everything makes sense... Edit: Sarts vote reads to me like a villager who doesn't know who to vote on, and are casting a semi-random vote and trying to create excuses for it. That's probably a better way to describe it than what I said above.

The game hasn't started yet. I am in game 1 which starts on Monday. Here is a link to the general info thread (specifically the post that give info about the game I am in): https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/21905-Season-6-General-Information?p=3180066&viewfull=1#post3180066 Edit: Once the game starts, I can post a link to that thread as well.

Fun fact, 2 other Sanderson fans are in my game. One of them (Nutella), played in LG41 (as Nutellaspren). This caused me to read through that game... and wow. Just wow. Just... Wow. That was insane. (Just research... totally not scouting...)

NNNOOOOOOO BARD WHY?!?! I haven't played a Bard-Game, and I really want to play a Nalthis game... but my championship game starts Monday... and LG 54 already conflicts a bit... *holding out some minor amount of hope* When do signups close?

That's why I was thinking that the Division user may not have had much stormlight, so couldn't kill Snipexe, so roleblocked him until they either had 3 stormlight, or the elim kill comes back around.

Why not just kill out tonight then? That is still what I am trying to work out. Perhaps they didn't have 3 stormlight, and still wanted to roleblock you to make sure you didn't enable PMs. I feel like this is important, and could help us figure out an elim identity, but I just don't know enough about what actions different players took to make an informed conclusion right now.\ EDIT: Essences are optional. Perhaps they don't think they are worthwhile?

Burn, recharge, burn, recharge, burn, recharge...

You are assuming you aren't burnt next cycle as well... Actually thinking about it, burning you instead of outright killing you is an interesting choice assuming my assumption that this was an elim is correct... I will have to think a bit more on that. Do you know in what manner it disguises someone's identity? I am just a bit confused as to how that mechanic would work. Hopefully the name isn't a direct correlation to the essences to make it... EDIT: I always read Ark as an elim… But it is worth noting that he did post his thoughts on this game. In past games, I only recall him doing this late into the game, so that may be worth noting. I will try to cast a vote during my lunch break today, when I have a bit more time for analysis.

While that is true, I think that this was a fringe case. That is one big example where the village made a mistake. However, I think you will also find that we, all in all, also gained a lot of information on other players. There were some players that people cleared due to PM conversations as well. Generally speaking, PMs will I believe hurt the elims as it is a method for villagers (on accident or not) to come in contact with other villagers without the elims hearing what is going on. While I agree that what you say is true, I also think that as Snipexe claimed Cryptic, unless someone was positive that was a lie, a villager should have let him reopen PMs. It is also possible that Snipexe is an elim, and another elim burnt Snip so that he would never actually have to open PMs, or to hide that Snip was in fact not a cryptic. But this sounds a bit conveluded to me, as there was no real reason for snip to reveal he was a cryptic other than to prevent Rand (I think it was) from using his PM enabling item. If Snip was an elim, there would be no reason to go through all this work and inconvenience if they were just going to kill Rand. Conclusion: I am thinking Snip is a villager due to a combination of roleclaiming, what he roleclaimed, and then getting burnt. I also think whoever burnt Snip is an elim without any further information. If PMs ever reopen, I would invite whoever did this to contact me in a PM to discuss.

A little late now. : P (2 turns to collect essences, 1 turn to make it, 1 turn to use it...)

So... A second person with the power of Division. That is either an Ashspren or Highspren. Snipexe claimed Cryptic IIRC, so I have a suspicion that the person who burnt Snipexe was an elim. Rand's death is unfortunate, but unsurprising. Edit: Also no one healing Dapper... Though there are a lot of reasons that could be. Perhaps no Truth/Cultivationspren are bonded, perhaps they are OK with Dapper being burnt, or perhaps they just want to watch people suffer. With PMs closed though, I don't think this means a ton. If PMs were open, I would be a lot more speculative...

Nitpicking is fine. : ) I would go with that just for amusements sake, but as Maill seems intent to nitpick on my mistakes, perhaps I shouldn't... : P

So you are saying that CadCom's strategy is just to steel random items people have to just make sure, on the off chance of it happening, no powerful items are created? But given that ~3/4 of the players would be villagers, statistically those items are more likely to be in the hands of villagers. Also if that was the case, why not go after Devotary, who publicly claimed making items would be a priority for her?

Thanks everyone! This really means a lot. Hopefully my beginners luck will continue through other forums as well! I am not very creative with bios and things like that, but I really like what Rand did for his last year... So I kind of stole it. (Thanks Rand!) That being said, I am mildly proud of my first paragraph. : ) For those that gave item descriptions, I tried to use the ones you gave. For those that didn't I made up my own. For some of them though (sorry Elandera and Lum), I created a description, and only afterwards realized that one was provided... If anyone has any grievances with it, I probably still have time to modify it. Oh, I have a grievance, I had no clue what to put as a description for Tarot Cards... I barely know what they are. Lol.

That was me copying the spelling of my name from the player list. I didn't correct it. That is what I was referencing in the following sentence. : )

Well, that means at least 3 people bonded C1. Elandera, Fifth, and a third with the powers of Division. (My guess is Devotary as I think she likes math : P) While Fifth's death is unfortunate, I think it will have given us quite a bit on info on players. 1am and getting tired. Instead of just saving this in a txt file like I normally would, I will post what I have and do a followup post with the rest at some point. Sart's section was the last I did, and it is seriously lacking as I kept getting dazed while writing it... I will do more on Sart in my next post. Furamirioind - Before I start my post, I just want to point out I copied these names from the player list in the writeup. Is Furamirionind really that much harder to spell than Spontaneity or Levitaph? : P (Just giving you a hard time) Lumgol Her posts throw me off and raise some elim alarms. However, CadCom made an excelent point about Lum's enthusiasm. When Lum was an elim, she tried to play the game much more "elim-esc". Manipulating, calculating, etc. When a villager, she jumps in and says the first thing that comes to her head. She is very much doing the latter this game. This puts her as a solid village read for the time being. However, I wouldn't use this general tonal read for her later in the game. That would have to be more on analysis and voting patterns. Randuir I have now plays 2 village/elim games with Rand. In both of them he was village and very NAI all the way through, and I hear he is the exact same as an elim. In both of my previous games I tunneled on him a bit due to this. As I don't personally think I can get a read on Rand, I will be watching them and other's interactions with them instead. Rand is solidly neutral for me right now. Xinoehp Not a lot to go on. IRL stuff Rathmaskal Snipexe Has quite a few posts, several of them about essence items, several apologizing for various things. After the discussion on Sart ended, he says that Sart's post sounded weird, but never followed up with that statement. I can't recall ever playing with an evil!Snipexe, and am hesitant to assume playstyles, but this does seem like something I could see evil!Snipexe doing, just throwing something like that out there seeing if it will stick. Granted, it was during the night turn, so idk how likely that is. I am putting Snipexe down as neutral. mostly because I can't in good conscience put him down as slight elim with my speculation. However, I want to give him slight elim. : P Ark1002 Not much for him. Actually posted a lot last turn, though none of it super useful. Bounced his vote back and forth between Dapper and Lumgol. However I think his reason was satisfactory. Ark does have a history of bandwagoning though, especially in the early cycles. So I find it a bit interesting that he didn't jump to Fifth once the bandwagon started there. Not a huge thing, but worth noting. I would put Ark as neutral, as while there are a couple things you could look at, they are all pretty much NIA. Devotary of Spontaneity There are some things that villagers say because they make sense, that elims just typically don't say. They don't say them, because saying them hurts the elims, and if you don't say them, people don't realize you didn't say them because they are so minor. Devotary said something like this to me in our PM, so I am pretty confident Devotary was a Truespren C1. : ) Levitaph It's tough for me to analyse Lev as I know them IRL, and their speaking style online is very similar to in person, which is throwing me off a bit and making me want to lean village. One thing that is worth noting though is Lev has been jumping around the lynch a lot, and not really following through on their suspicions. Post 1: Attacked Lum Post 2: Doubled down on Lum Post 3: N/A Post 4: Back on Lum Post 5: Expresses suspicion of Devotary and Sart, which are never mentioned again. (When questioned on opinions on other players) Post 6: Goes after Fifth Post 7: Doubles down on Fifth. Idk, not actually as much jumping around as I thought I remembered, but the only talk Levitaph is doing is on the forefront person being lynched. they don't seem to be talking about anyone else. Shqueeves TheMightyLopen Lopen's initial analysis post just screams village to me. He raises excellent points against Rath, defends Lum, and argues against Fifth's vote against her. If Lopen was an elim, he could have very easily turned that post into a vote on Fifth. Both Rath and Fifth are good analyzers. However in recent history, Fifth has an incredibly impressive/scary record for catching elims. As the lynch was close between Lum and Fifth. This would have been something easy for Lopen to do. None of his other posts were really all that substantial. I wish PMs were open... : / Cadmium Compounder xD CadCom, it is spelled Sja-Anat, not Sha-Anat. . I want to point out though, misspelling Sja-Anat doesn't mean he isn't Sja-Anat. CadCom is a skilled eliminator, and I could totally see misspelling the role as a means to throw people off. I don't understand this statement. It seems to me you are just saying "Elims don't want to look like elims", which is obviously true. Are you also saying though that elims don't want to be trusted? You say they would prefer to be neutral? That is just weird to me. CadCom's vote on Levitaph D2 would be an easy way for an elim to mask their vote, but it could just as easily be someone who doesn't actually want their vote to impact the lynch... So idk. Cadcom has posted 2 serious analysis posts, yet I feel I know nothing more after reading them than I did before, either about him, or the person/people he is analysing. Because of this, he is somewhere between neutral and elim read. I just don't know though. Dr. Dapper When the lynch swung to Coop D1, there were 3 votes against coop, and 2 against Sart, and Dapper voted on Sart. This therefore was not purely a bandwagon vote, and also wasn't a random vote, as he did put Sart in a position where he could have been lynched. This makes me lean village on Dapper... Or as much village as I can on someone who hasn't posted analysis yet. : ) As it would seem to me he is trying to make an informed D1 lynch. I am only really counting this because it is his first game though. Next he continues to tunnel on Sart, but without anyone prompting, steps back and admits it. This again wouldn't mean anything, however when he comes back, he doesn't mention Sart once. As an elim, I would imagine you would still want to be pushing Sart's lynch, just bring Ark's name in to make it look like you didn't agree with the lynch. But here, Dapper completely ignores Sart. Again, slight village Next he says his suspicion of Sart was unfounded due to some analysis Sart posted, and jumps on the Fifth bandwagon. This seems a bit strange to me. He seems to be assuming here that Sart is village, where he previously was tunneling. This is a hard turn. What I would have expected, even if Dapper agreed with Sart, that there would be at least some resistance... Not a complete reversal. This brings Dapper back down to neutral for me. Sart Their forewardness in sharing their role seems strange to me, but perhaps this is something Sart does? I am not familiar with his playstyle. I think we should lynch Sart D4 at the latest though, as a guarenteed vote manip role is valuable, and there is a decent chance he would have been converted purely for that.

Why do you suspect Ark?

I am still debating about Fifth lynch. Fifth is not playing this game how they typically play. However, you wouldn't know that. ; P Ugh. Fifth just always gives me village vibes!!!!!

@Cadmium Compounder Can you please confirm Sart's statement? Due to Sart's statement and a couple PMs, I will place my vote on @Fifth Scholar. However, I would invite him to dispel these accusations if at all possible. Edit: Fifth Scholar

Hmm, do you not think that this would warrant sharing the identity of the spren that stole Fifth's item?

Hmm, still working on my analysis post, but I havent posted in a while, and idk when my analysis will be done (as I am feeling pretty cremmy right now) so... I will just post whatever this is. Here is my current stances on players: I am not sure about the Lumgol lynch. I personally was planning on probably pushing for a Lum lynch D3. Purely because Lum was lynched D1 in 2 of her past 3/4 games, and I think was lynched D2 in another of those games... I agree with Fifth playing this game differently than he usually does, but I am still getting a villager vibe from him. Can't really explain it. Devotary I am definitely leaning village on due to our PM interactions. I am getting an elim vibe on both Lopen and Levitaph, but haven't figured out why yet. Until I do, I am hesitant to vote on either. I will be keeping an eye on both though. I want to think Rath is village due to the Drizzle Father RP. I love that. I normally have far more PMs by now... So I will try to send a few more out before the end of the turn. Hopefully there will be another cryptic to extend them... (?) Unless people have objections, I also might post some analysis on roles, as no one this game has done that yet, and I feel way more motivated to do that right now.

As I agree with the elims killing Elandera for low activity, I will share my personal reasoning. Elandera is a skilled player, who just almost won the previous MR as a sole eliminator, so killing her wouldnt be a bad idea. On top of that, she didnt post any thought on other players (that I can recall) which means that her death wont give us much information as to the elim team, now or down the road when we relook over this stuff. Now that I am back home, I will reread the thread, and try to gather some thoughts on the game. I will also try to do a player analysis post tomorrow.