Emerald Falcon

@Opal Lion as you could probably guess from my RP, I am not in Mateform currently. I attuned something else N3.

@Steeldancer Just so we're all operating on accurate assumptions, let me ask this. Can Mavset-Im take on Forms? I just want to make sure we're not assuming something that isn't true, because I don't see any evidence one way or another.

@Steeldancer Where's my vote on Cream Tuatara? If the vote count is correct, Tuatara is lying about being Nimbleform.

Okay, I'm voting for Cream Tuatara for two reasons. One, they haven't voted during this game. That's completely unhelpful if they're good, and extremely detrimental if they are evil. Second, I keep circling back to Day 1. Something about it makes me suspect that it was a V/E lynch.

Elrin was dead. They hadn't found a single Sympathizer, and Elrin was dead. The world had stopped making sense to Henresh. How could they be so uncaring, acting as if nothing had happened? He couldn't stop crying, tears flowing down his face. Why had they killed her? Indecision? In the face of this madness, indecision was to be expected. How dare they. He wouldn't forgive them. They had killed his sole light amidst this darkness. He wiped the tears from his eyes. He couldn't do anything in this form. He needed to be stronger. He needed to get revenge.

2 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

But I do like their idea about creating PMs tonight to hopefully tomorrow be able to narrow down who could have submitted the kill, so anyone who has an action to spare should consider doing that. The PM doesn't have to go anywhere, even, I suppose it can simply be to show that an action was used.

That might work, except we have the problem of Nimble Form. An Elim could post a PM, and submit the kill, in the same night.

Okay, full disclosure, Penguin and I are lovers. There's a reason why I'm bringing this up instead of practicing PM safety. I attuned to Mateform on Night 1. However, I was not given a PM, and was told there was an odd number of Mateform players, and that I got the short end of the stick. That was odd, since there was an even number of Mateform gems taken from the supply. I decided to stay in Mateform and see what happened. Today, I was paired up with Penguin. Notably, no one took any Mateform gems Day 2, so I asked him what took so long. He claimed that he didn't realize that Attuning was an action, so he just didn't submit the action.

There's only two possibilities. Penguin could be lying, and submitted a different action. Namely, he could have submitted the kill. However, I think that's unlikely. Someone was bound to notice the PM count being off. It would make more sense for an Elim with a less visible role submit the kill. More likely, Penguin is telling the truth. That's not definitive proof that he's a Villager though. Even Eliminators can forget to submit an action. 

So, if only for the selfish reason that I want my PM with him to keep going, I'm going to tie up the vote. Amber Vulture , I'm not sure you're an Elim, but I still don't like your vote on Opal Lion. Plum Rhinoceros ,  I still distrust you, but it looks like there's no appetite for a vote on you.

Emerald Falcon (1): Opal Lion

Chartreuse Penguin (1): Onyx Flamingo

Oh great. There's only two votes, and one of them is on me. I suppose I should vote on Scorpion, but I've cooled on that. Their post voting on Albatross was poor logic in my opinion, but poor logic doesn't mean evil player. In addition, Albatross was attacked last night, which feels too blatant if Scorpion was evil.

I think I'm going to vote for Plum Rhinoceros instead. They refuted Swan's vote a bit too vigorously, as if they were overcompensating. In addition, they've somehow slid into a position of trust due to their activity, but they don't have much to show for it.

Also, here's some mechanic questions.

Just to confirm, what happens when the conversion hits a player in Warform? I know the conversion is unlockable, but would the writeup tell us that someone in Warform died?

How do Mediation form and Work form interact? If a player with Mediation form is the only vote on a player in Work form, does the Work form player have 1 vote on them, or no votes?

Obligatory, I'm not dead yet post. I hesitated posting yesterday, and went inactive because of it. That's not good. 

I've got an Elim read from Vulture, but that's about it 

Friendly reminder to submit your night actions. 

I'm not one hundred percent sure what happened yesterday. I was pleased that my vote on Cream Tuatara provoked discussion, and I didn't want to change midstream. I'm still trying to figure out why the vote shifted to Swan. My laptop isn't working, so I'm doing this on mobile. 

Analysis of Swan votes.

• Plum Rhinoceros votes for them pretty much randomly. Not much to glean from that. Early votes are early.
• Opal Lion does what appears to be a stab vote. I'm not a huge fan of this strategy, but it's not alignment indicative.
• Rhino gets distracted by Magenta Albatross and implicitly retracts their vote. Swan has still not posted, but early votes fluctuate wildly.
• Swan trolls the thread by putting a third vote on a stab vote, with literally no reasoning. Albatross says what the heck, but does not vote on Swan.
• Amethyst Scorpion is miffed their poke vote is snowballing, and switches to Swan.
• Rhino somewhat defends Swan, so that's a point in their favor.
• Swan posts another jokey post.
• More time passes, and Swan makes an analysis post. He's suspicious of Albatross and Rhino. Confirmed good does not mean confirmed right.
• Then Swan votes on Dingo with zero reasoning. Thanks Swan.
• Flamingo sees the obvious contradiction of voting on your suspect's suspicion. 
• Albatross is fed up with Swan and finally votes for them, quoting each post they've made.
• Swan makes another jokey post responding to Lion's joke.
• Swan says okay, and votes for Rhino. Interestingly, the unofficial vote count is off here. Swan thinks he is voting for someone with two votes, but Penguin has retracted his vote on Rhino.
• Rhino wonders why he's getting voted on over Albatross. Albatross has 0 votes, so that would be a weird decision for Swan.
• Another troll post from Swan, but then they get serious. They refuse to move their vote again. Apparently, the Dingo vote was a test of some kind?
• Swan and Rhino debate a final time. Swan's main argument comes down to an apathetic tone on one post. 
• Rhino claims he's being more formal than usual.

I think the wierdest vote is from @Opal Lion. Their initial vote is a stab vote, but even after Swan gets on, and does a Monty Python joke with Opal Lion. The vote remains in place.

I find the analysis of Cream Tuatara extremely poor. Extra lives are annoying, but declaring that you have one is worse, since it causes a black hole of suspicion to swirl around you. It's better to take it early, to hopefully eat a kill. In addition, they also suggest that invoking a no vote is useful in the late game. In my opinion, it becomes even more crucial to vote in the late game, as the margins only get smaller. It feels like they are an Elim posting a role analysis to blend into the crowd of Villagers doing the same.

Demandred slowly took a sip of his wine. "That would be a valid point, my friend. Except I did, in fact, reveal my identity on the second day to Hyena. Additionally, if I were Lews, how could I have known that the real Demandred wasn't out there somewhere, destined to ruin my chances once he died or revealed himself? There is no possibility I could have taken such a risk as Lews."

He paused for a moment, watching the other two, trying to gauge any kind of reaction from either of them.

"By contrast, Scorpion, you claimed to be the former Forsaken Asmodean. Which, if you were Lews Therin, would be ideal Forsaken to pick - the Betrayer, who Lews Therin was so close to. Of all the Forsaken, he would be the least likely to be among our number here. He was the one who turned his back on our lord. He was the one who Lews Therin knew best. And unlike all others here, he is extremely unlikely to want to kill Lews Therin."

"You accuse me for not following the pack. I confess it. I am many things, but I have no interest in being ordinary. But you, you have a far more serious crime. You tried to blend in, to seem like just another name among many. So no-one would notice you among the crowd. So no-one would snoop too closely, and see what secrets you had hidden away. And, you have very nearly succeeded."

"But I noticed you, Lews Therin. And I will avenge my fallen comrades, and triumph in the Dark One's glory over your dead corpse."

Seriously, I had way too much fun writing this. It's so much fun being a bad guy.

18 hours ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

To clarify the PM situation:

Cycle 1: Created a PM with Falcon. However, PMs don't come into effect until the beginning of the next cycle (Cycle 2).

Cycle 2: Prompted by an action from Scorpion, I created a PM with Scorpion. @Amethyst Scorpion, if you look back, you should have started getting PMs from me in Cycle 3.

Ah, right, that makes sense.

In that case, Coral Swan is the most likely candidate, mainly through process of elimination (though paranoia is making me wary of both Scorpion and Hyena). If the game doesn't end this cycle, I'll have to rethink everything in the game up to this point.

10 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Hyena - Sammael. I trust them, even if maybe I shouldn't. They've been PMing me since cycle two and may have been pocketing me, but I do get a village vibe from them and our interactions.

...Huh. This is something I should probably have checked before now - are you sure it was the start of Cycle 2 that he PM'ed you from? Because Cycle 2 is when he first PM'ed me as well, meaning he must have submitted two actions that cycle. @Charcoal Hyena, do you have an explanation for that?

And yeah, very little point in hiding it at this stage - I'm Demandred.

Apologies for my absence last cycle - even in quarantine, IRL life still finds a way of being hectic.

OK, so Tuatara claimed as Lanfear, which I think makes them unlikely to be Lews - there's too many ways that could go wrong (a counterclaim, or a female channeler discovering that Lanfear isn't a female channeler). Also, if I had to guess, I think Lews is alone, or at least, I'm only looking for Lews, not any of his colleagues. My other wild speculation, based on the effects of the lynch, is that Lews has some natural immunity or self-protection abilities which can only be overcome by the effects of the lynch, so we'd effectively had to both lynch and then try to kill them (although Balefire might also bypass his protection, who knows) - by the fact that Mouse was lynched and then balefired, it's possible someone else came to the same conclusion.

Anyway, the remaining candidates are Hyena, Scorpion, Penguin, and Swan.

Hyena - I'm leaning village on Hyena. They've spent at least 2 actions sending me and Scorpion PM's, which strikes me as a very unusual thing to do as an Eliminator. Even though as Dragonfly mentioned, Lews could easily have multiple actions, so they could still send in a kill, I feel like Lews wouldn't want to send out PM's for fear of risking their chance of being caught out - they claimed to me - if I'd said "Hey, that's unusual, I'm also [claimed role]", they'd have been stuck. But, they also chose to claim just to me, instead of to the thread, which is the safer choice, and for all I know, could have told Scorpion they were my role, or the other way round, thereby minimising risk further. For that reason, I'd be interested in finding a way to crosscheck with Scorpion whether we were both claimed the same role by Hyena. (The easiest way would be Hyena simply claiming, but if he doesn't want to do that we can find a work around.) Pending that being successful, I don't think they're the most likely candidate for Lews. Chance of being Lews: 20%

Scorpion - Claimed Asmodean. It's possible a gutsy Lews could decide based on the timeline and the claimed wincons of the village that Asmodean was likely to be a player (Asmodean briefly worked with Lews in the books, so would therefore be unlikely to be a villager working to kill him, so safe to claim). This post struck me as very villagery, though, for what it's worth. And Hyena vouches for them. So, all in all, possible, but I don't find it likely at this stage. Chance of being Lews: 15%

Swan - I looked back at the reasons Swan was lynched Cycle Three, and these were the reasons - 'Instinct', 'Self-preservation' (why people are casting self-preservation votes when the lynch doesn't kill, I don't know, but that's beside the point), and 'I trust Dragonfly' (who cast the Instinct vote). So... yeah, clearly that's a rock-solid case against Swan and we should all Balefire them tonight. Joking aside, I don't have any particularly strong reading on Swan, one way or the other. They've claimed M'Hael, which... yeah, sends me on a similar pattern of thought to Scorpion claiming Asmodean, since M'Hael is a less likely Forsaken to exist based on the guessed upon timeline. Chance of being Lews: 30%

Penguin - Hasn't spoken much, but then, neither have I. Much of what they have posted has been early, with a focus on lore, and they've claimed an unnamed Forsaken role. To me, I think that feels like the safe move, to blend in with the crowd without the risk of being called out, so I'm hesitantly placing them as the most likely candidate to be Lews. Chance of being Lews: 35%

OK, I'm completely lost.

Claims:
Amber Vulture - Unnamed Forsaken
Amethyst Scorpion - Asmodean
Azure Mouse - Unnamed Female Forsaken (Graendal, Semirrhage, or Moghedien)
Charcoal Hyena - 
Chartreuse Penguin - Unnamed Forsaken
Coral Swan - 
Cream Tuatara - Lanfear/Cyndane
Emerald Falcon - Unnamed Forsaken
Fuchsia Ostrich Mesaana
Indigo Weasel Aran’gar
Ivory Dragonfly
Magenta Albatross Rahvin
Mauve Crocodile Shaidar Haran
Melon Dingo - Aginor/Osan'gar

Blegh. I was hoping going through, analysing peoples posts, and writing up the list of claims would help, but it didn't at all. (If I missed one, by the way, please correct me.)

So Swan was roleblocked last cycle, but there were still not one but two kills. It's possible that both kills were friendly fire, though, in which case, I'd appreciate if the Ostrich's killer spoke up. Otherwise, that makes me think that Swan isn't Lews. We can also rule out Mouse and Tuatara, who can confirm for each other that they're both saidin channelers, and since Vulture participated in the Albatross kill, they can't have killed Ostrich last cycle either. Finally, Dingo and Scorpion have both claimed an explicit role, which almost certainly would have been counterclaimed if they'd been lying, so I'm going to rule them out too.

That leaves Hyena and Dragonfly. Weasel seemed to trust Dragonfly, but confirmed good =/= confirmed right, so I'm not sure how much stock to put into that. Hyena, I'm also of two minds about - they're the one player to have PM'ed me, so far, and have claimed to me - I haven't had proof of that claim, but I at least have the opportunity to ask them how they acted in future turns. For that reason, by process of elimination, I'm going to vote for Dragonfly.

14 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Can you share why you thought he was Lews Therin?

I was working with the assumption that this was a game with the 13 Forsaken + Lews Therin. My other guess was that Crocodile was lying about his Forsaken claim, which seemed convenient with the timing, and like he was trying to blend in (which turned out to be correct, but for exactly the wrong reasons). His first post seemed to me like he was trying to post NAI content as well - admittedly most people were, at that point, since no-one knew what side they were actually on, but something about it still bugged me in particular. Possibly the fact that if he was a Forsaken, he'd have probably jumped to the same conclusion that I did about 13 Forsaken + Lews making up 14 players after a moments Google Search, but he didn't, which suggested a different role. It wasn't a strong read by any stretch, but I had also planned to replace it if I found something stronger later, which I never got around to.

I'll claim the kill on Crocodile - I had an early guess that he was Lews Therin, so put in a temporary kill action which I meant to change later, but forgot (I'm really sorry, Crocodile). As for what happened to me, it seems the Dark One was... displeased with my actions, so I can't channel this cycle.

Also, if any female channelers want to contact me, there's a saidar ang'real that I have but can't use, so you're welcome to it.

Also, this game not being 13 Forsaken + Lews Therin has completely tossed out so many assumptions I was making this game, so that's nice. I'm trying to figure out just how troll-y Fifth is as a GM right now.

1 hour ago, Melon Dingo said:

You are incorrect. I asked in my GM PM, and Fifth said that the death of Lews Therin does not have to be caused by me. I will win if he dies, no matter when or how. If you don't believe me, you're free to ask him yourself.

I asked to confirm after I posted, and then got told I was incorrect, which is extremely embarrassing. On the up side, I have a great new idea for a game I could run now.

So, all of the claimed roles are Forsaken, and no-one's directly contradicted the idea that this is a game with the 13 Forsaken and Lews Therin - at least some of the Forsaken are out to kill Lews Therin, but, if Weasel is to be believed, not all of them. How interesting. @Indigo Weasel, I have no expectation that you're going to be honest about this, but I'm curious enough that I'll ask anyway - I know our wincons are different, but are they compatible or directly contradictory?

9 minutes ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

Sorry I haven't been on in a while. Emerald Falcon. I am also a Forsaken, and my interpretation of our win-con is that Lews must die rather than have us kill him. Having looked at the Wheel of Time wiki, I know now that Forsaken serve a "Dark One" or something. Is there a Dark One? If there is a Dark One, do not reveal yourself for fear of Lews slaughtering you. 

I would be extremely surprised if there was a Dark One. Even Lews, in all his power, would not be able to kill the Dark One if he were in the game (this isn't a spoiler, because it's basically the backstory of the Wheel of Time - Lews Therin Telamon, the Dragon, gathered a bunch of channelers and was able to trap the Dark One and his 13 most powerful servants, the Forsaken. The Wheel of Time is set thousands of years later, as the Dark One tries to break free from his prison. So our losing state would be Lews trapping all of us.) The Dark One is less a powerful channeler, like the Forsaken are, and more a force of nature/god that people serve for most of the series. Praise be his name.

EDIT: Oops, twice ninjad. I think Crocodile got the point.

Methinks the Forsaken among us should read their wincon more closely.  This isn't a Village vs. SK game as some are suggesting. It's a faction game - each of the Forsaken has to personally cause the Dragon's death in some way if they want to win.

From there, it's guesswork, but if I had to guess based on balance reasons, there will be some proof against us all just claiming our role. My guess is that Lews is immune to the lynch, or at least won't die from it the first time - if that were the case, then we would have to fall back on our kills to achieve our goal, which are (at least in my case) not entirely reliable.

So, the point of the game, unless I'm mistaken, is this: The 13 Forsaken are hunting for Lews Therin, and we all want to find him first to kill him and gain favour with the Dark One. Lews Therin, The Dragon, is of course out to kill (or at least outlive) the rest of us first, and probably has a variety of irritating heroic abilities to aid him.

The Wheel turns, my friends. May luck smile on the worthy.

Hey all! Normally at this stage, I'd be all for grabbing someone for the lynch, but I wonder if in this game with so little information there's no point. Still, I might drop my vote on the leading candidate towards the end of the cycle - prevent any possible vote manipulations, and all that jazz.

In the meantime, Amber Vulture - something about this post seems off - maybe it's just me.

13 hours ago, Amber Vulture said:

If balefire can be used to make a player no longer exist, we probably wouldn't learn that player's role. If balefire can be used to bring people back to life, we probably wouldn't learn their role upon their initial death to avoid potential confirmed good/evil players.

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I also wish to hypothesize about why the almighty Game Masters wished for 14 and only 14 players. Are there unique roles? Are there individual win-cons? Is 14 an important number in Wheel of Time and I'm just ignorant as I haven't read it? 

There are 14 books in the wheel of time series, which may have been an inspiration. Fifth's last wheel of time game had unique roles in it, and the fact that this is a blackout game makes it even easier to put in unique roles without giving players an easy way to prove those roles. 

Well, that was an interesting doc read.

@Saffron Iguana, sorry not sorry for that PM accusing you of being an eliminator. It was a last-ditch, paranoid shot in the dark, and it didn't even get you. Oh well. Next time, maybe.

Congratulations to the eliminators for winning after such a bad start!

@Saffron Iguana, special note to you for pocketing me entirely. Well done. That was a failure of analysis on my part.

@Amethyst Scorpion and @Magenta Albatross, thanks for RPing with me. It helped a lot with my engagement with the game.

17 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Wow. I'm all sorts of confused about timeline. I can't keep my days straight. However, I feel the correct timeline makes this more suspicious. It was as if trusted elim!Falcon was trying to silence one who had expressed suspicion of a teammate.

Yeah, real difficult, silencing an inactive who hadn't spoken for days when the thread had no activity in it. Clearly, Gecko was such an urgent threat that I had to drum up activity in the thread and ask for people to do enough analysis for a vote, instead of just waiting another 48 hours to use the Night kill on Gecko. Such a threat indeed.

Scorpion. Your reasoning for your suspicion on me is inconsistent and contains several untruths. It feels more like an eliminator trying to get somebody lynched than a villager considering all their options.

Case in point:

22 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Falcon: Neutral to elim. They've had a lot of good suggestions, but I'm mostly off-put by their lynch on Gecko. They pointed out how Gecko was suspicious of Octopus, but then pushed for their lynch after Octopus flipped elim. Rhino was super hedgy regarding Falcon, and Octopus always put them in the suspicious category. However, Octopus never did so in a way that would guarantee the lynch, and always backed off if it appeared to become a real threat.

4 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

Meerkat Falcon

It would be nice to resolve a long term gut feeling of Falcon.

First of all, Octopus was killed last Night. We received their alignment this Day. Gecko, on the contrary, was lynched last Day. However, you say that I tried to lynch Gecko after we learned of Octopus's alignment. Unless you consider me capable of time travel, this is flat-out wrong.

Additionally, you say that lynch was suspicious, but you yourself participated in it. Clearly you did not see anything wrong with it at the time, when you voted on Gecko alongside me here:

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I'll join the Gecko lynch. I've looked back on some of their and Rhino's posts. Gecko was one of two (?) people Rhino called out specifically after being outed. Rhino said something to the order of Gecko not mentioning Rhino, which could have been a distancing effort. I also don't like that Gecko is insistent that Lion is elim.

I probably will be lynched tonight no matter what I say. If you do, then please, villagers, try to keep the activity up, yeah? Hopefully once I'm dead you can rest your minds about me and go look for some actual Sympathizers.