Emerald Falcon

3 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

I get you. That was my entire existence during D1... constantly digging myself a bigger hole. I'm inclined to believe you're not an elim, but what you said before this makes me hesitate to remove my vote.

You say you're not neutral, nor are you village or elim. You say both would want to kill you if we learned what you are. That suggests a third faction with a strange win-con. Is it out to kill both other factions? Or could it be like the Cthaeh mechanic during the last MR, where one of each faction has to remain? Or does that faction have abilities that could be problematic for both elims and village?

Both wouldn’t want to kill me, it’s an or, not an and. One of them (the elims or the village) would definitely want to kill me, if my speculation is correct.

Just now, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Sorry for few posts. Either way, I don't really think Emerald Falcon is certainly anti-village. If they don't want to share their win-con, that could just as easily be because it was anti-elim and they didn't want to be on the radar for a good kill target. That's assuming Falcon is a neutral-which I'm not completely convinced of so far. I think it might be good to suggest a compromise. @Emerald Falcon How about you tell us the name of your faction or role or whatever? That way we can, if one dies in the future, confirm your neutral status. That might open up some issues on your part depending on the name, but I find it much less likely to get you killed at least.

My problem is that the second I give any true hint to my faction, I’m dead. No matter what. Whether it’s by elims or the lynch, I’m not going to say. So that’s why I’m playing my role so close to the chest.

26 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Okay, I understand.  Presumably you are claiming some form of benign neutral.  I can respect that.

And while I don't want to be "that other guy" who attacks neutral claimants, I'm seeing a few problems with this.

• I strongly suspect that you included your own secret role in your list of role speculations.  Which is problematic, because none of the ones you speculated about fits the bill for benign neutral.
• You tried to backtrack on the meaning of "survive" as the refugee win condition, stating that you actually meant "kill all evils."  I find myself unable to believe this explanation:
  • You admit that you are indeed not village, but then also disputed the meaning of survive.  Most truthful explanations do not need to attack every link in the chain of an argument.
  • "Survive" has a much more obvious meaning, and the simplest explanation is that you most likely meant it to mean survive.
  • You originally speculated the informants had a "kill all evils" faction.  And then you went out of your way to distinguish informants and refugees as seperate factions.  Now you are saying you believed they had the same win condition all along?
• If a neutral claimant is unwilling to share their win condition with the village, then logically there are two most likely reasons for this. Either their win condition is harmful to the village, or they aren't actually neutral at all.

I am sorry if I am wrong, but from how Falcon has responded to our votes, I find it difficult to see how Falcon is anything but an anti-village role at this point. So my vote stands.

This is sound logic. I have just one response. I’m not neutral.

18 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Only now assuming there's an elim team feels strange to me. It's like he's attempting to distance himself from elims by saying he wasn't sure there were any

Sigh, I know responding to this one is just digging my hole deeper, but... I wrote that post before I saw the write up, so I wasn’t sure if the kill was a result of the monster. Also, this blackout game was built to try out at least 1 new mechanic, why not more.

4 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

sigh. This very much reeks of IKYK...

Yeah, I’m not a refugee  There would be no reason to screw myself if I was an elim, so I just sort of figured I’d go ahead and post what I thought anyway. I definitely think there are better people to lynch then me (dingo for one). Also when I meant survive I meant eliminate the elim faction (and maybe the hemalurgic monster). So yeah! I don’t really want to share my role, and so I’m not going to. For now

2 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Thank you, Ostrich.  The idea came from Samuel Taylor Coleridge’s poem “The Rime of the Ancient Mariner,” which uses the same rhyming pattern and structure as my writeup, and also talks about the consequences of shooting harmless albatrosses.  

Really good write up, I will definitely be checking out that poem.

1 hour ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Why not mention me? I was part of that late hour debacle too! Are you just taking me as an innocent bystander that got sucked in? @Emerald Falcon Would that mean you also suspect Amber Vulture, or are you just saying that Magenta's actions are super suspicious. Mild elim read on Emerald falcon, and maybe Cream Tutara as well.

Yeah I probably deserve that read. I was tired, and thought I had read the entire thread, so I think I missed some stuff about the end of the cycle. Don’t worry, I won’t forget about you again.

Now it’s time to talk some game mechanics. So we know from the above right up that there are at least two “village” factions. The refugees, which I’m going to assume are just vanilla villagers, and the fleeing informants, who probabaly have a different win con, and potentially special powers.

From this slip up:

7 hours ago, Melon Dingo said:

Anyway, two people with green roles died, so they're likely village

We know that there’s a 3rd non-elim faction, as it’s very unlikely an elim would make a mistake like that. Whether or not this is the Kandra is debatable, but my gut says no. The fact that the captain was attacked savagely seems to imply some kind of hemalurgic monster or Koloss. And finally we can assume there’s an elim team because of the kill last night.

So now that we have our factions laid out, let’s guess the actual win cons. The fact that the informant roll has the prefix fleeing implies they’re running from something, and the name informant means they know something. Because of this I find it unlikely that the they are being chased by the hemalurgic monster/koloss/Kandra. Instead remember the title of the sign up thread? Scadrain black ops team. My guess is that the elim team is a black ops group trying to kill the informants who know too much. They are experts of disguise and hidden assasination (the role swap mechanic, the person who “dies” is an the account of an elim, while they actually switched with someone else). I’m guessing the hemalurgic monster/koloss is trying to either reach a certain number of kills before getting killed themselves, or kill the black ops team who work for the mega company that created them (the monster). So win cons here:

refugees:survive                                        

Informants:escape? or lynch the black ops team/threats to their escape

Black ops team:kill the informants

hemalurgic monster:kill a certain number of people.

I’ll do an actual analysis post later, but I’d thought I’d share these thoughts now.

Ok, at this point magenta is seeming super suspicious. The way their interactions with amber vulture just seems super scripted, and they’re responses are very aggressive.

My opinions on the magenta albatross lynch. It just seems too perfecf, to me at least it seems very unlikely that an elim would slip like this. I’m going to wait till tomorrow though before making any final deliberations.

3 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

What are people's thoughts on a D1 lynch this game? Helpful or no?

Definitely helpful, as it will give us info and roles and such, though any voting today is going to be very NAI.

also cream tuatara

1 minute ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Too bad we can't upvote posts from anon players, because I would Like Magenta's post

You must be able to somehow, because I have 2 rep

Just now, Indigo Weasel said:

I will do that, but at the same time, enough people might have seen it that it won't matter. It will also need to get edited in the post by that person who quoted me as well.

But I don't know if it matters, a whole lot, because there is pretty much NAI speculation in the post, and nothing more. Maybe.

Both posts will probably be hidden anyway, so it doesn’t really matter. Though it’s going to be a bit weird for anyone who comes through the thread later.

Anyway, I’m just going to throw a vote on @Cream Tuatara cream Tuatara

1 minute ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Seonid did say that anonymity is only secondary. I suspect it's an anon game so that we can use the anon accounts, as opposed to actually switching (for example) Randuir's and Alvron's account. Could you all imagine the chaos that would ensue if rand was on alvron's real account, or vice-versa.

That image though, lol

1 hour ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Anyway, there's not much we can deduce unless the kandra tells us what they can do. But...I do see that Emerald Falcon was recently browsing and hasn't said anything, so I might as well throw the first poke vote.

@Emerald Falcon

Consider me poked.

My best guess to the Kandra’s win condition would be to remain undetected, or too swap a certain number of times. It could also be that the “village” and the “elims” (assuming we have either of the two) both have Kandras whose win condition is to discover each other. Maybe  one is an agent of Harmony, and the other is a rogue, and the agent of Harmony is trying to track the rogue Kandra down. Just sort of spitballing here.

No offense, but we've done a crap job of gathering info thus far. We (or I at least) am desperately gathering info because I am desperate. I haven't been super active, which hasn't helped. We can lynch essentially blindly, or we could have (since your explanation kind of ruined it) made one last gamble to try to get the info we need before parity. 

Some of Mouse's behaviour has struck me as genuinely off, although I voted primarily to enforce a tie. Now that he's claiming to be Hael I'm suddenly getting LG... want to say 29 flashbacks. But that is probably confirmation bias given the events of today... (insert Heron post here) or.... Maybe not? I'll admit I've been around for a while, and maybe!Hael's claim didn't sound that off, but I'm not really sure. Unless Heron is misremembering, one of the two is lying...

42 minutes ago, Sunburst Toucan said:

"And this new strategy would be to turn off our minds and just follow your lead?" Vanna manged to keep her voice down, but only just. "I'm sorry, but if you had a strategy that relied on us being willing to gamble on trusting you, you should have tried it a couple of days ago."

No gamble involved.  Where possible I simply plan to keep the lynch tied. If you disagree, feel free to change things. If you are really that confused by what I'm doing, you probably haven't been paying attention. Success or failure, I'll explain tomorrow. 

Speaking of:

Vote Count:

Vulture: (3) Scorpion, Ivory, Kangaroo, 

Scorpion: (3) Toucan, Vulture, Elephant

Mouse: (3) Heron, Ostrich, Falcon

Toucan: (2) Chameleon, Albatross

Falcon: (1) Mouse

Anyone want to throw another vote on Toucan?  

52 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

Figured I'd wait around to see if there were any immediate responses to my post. That's an incredibly worrying reason to vote at this stage unless you think both are evil. The only reason I won't immediately switch my vote is that I don't think an eliminator would do that. It seems too obviously an elim view...

But then, I'm sure everyone would agree that the elims haven't necessarily played how we'd expect them to. 6 lynches in, with some vig kills for added measure and we're yet to take one out... Eh. Scorpion Falcon. That's more suspicious to me than most anything Scorpion has done...

Vulture. 

There are reasons. Suspect me if you will. Our lynches have achieved nothing thus far. Clearly a change in strategy is required.

Vote Count:

Vulture: (4) Scorpion, Ivory, Kangaroo, Falcon

Scorpion: (4) Mouse, Toucan, Vulture, Elephant

Mouse: (2) Heron, Ostritch

Toucan: (1) Pearl Chameleon
 

Vulture. Let the Gods of Luck and Chance decide.  

Weasel lynch seems to be a given at this point, but I'd just like to point out that Scorpion's posts have a tone that *feels* very similar to what I use sometimes as an Elim to deflect suspicion. Acknowledging suspicion without being concerned by it, (vaguely annoyed at most) letting vague accusations slide off with equally vague rebuttals, or just plain indifference. Hiding behind a lack of investment, either real or feigned.

Of course, that could just be an indifferent villager. Something I will continue to look at nonetheless. Regardless how Weasel flips I wouldn't be against a Scorpion lynch tomorrow, although I do hope to spend some time looking at other suspicions to avoid digging myself too deep of a tunnel. 

(Just so people know, Weasel's posts are rather easily read through if one looks at his profile and looks at his activity. He hasn't posted much. It'll literally take you 10 mins. Although cycle is ending in about that time. C'est la vie.)

Scorpion. (Would've been nice to have a vote-count so I could put a vote in a better place, but I actually don't have time for that.) Main reason I have been suspicious of Scorpion is because their posts very considered (like, "how should I respond to this"). That's just my read though, and it's not a great one. I find it interesting how he became a focus of the lynch soon after I voted for him without giving a reason though?

(Also: No such thing as psychobabble that isn't useful.)

Oh joy, another nascent bandwagon. I kid, somewhat, but still. I'd like to provide a case study here. (Not meaning to single anyone out, just providing an example of what can happen.)

Quote

 I feel like they switch around their suspicions a lot. Which isn't suspicious in and of itself but... Something about it is coming off as not genuine. The reasons themselves are sound. But after a few posts, I feel like they're trying to maintain a pattern. Contributing but keeping themselves flexible enough so that they can switch votes without casting suspicious on themselves. So they can vote on an elim, if that vote catches on, they can switch their vote to a villager, etc. It's very convenient. This could just be a move by an innocent villager, but this is one of the best elim suspicions I've got at the moment. It was the post by Weasel that I've quoted above that really made me go back and look at their posts.

Chameleon above said this. Seems logical, yes? Upon first glance, it makes sense, fits with your half-remembered thoughts on Weasel's actions. You, being a conscientious, methodical SE player () decide to go investigate for yourself, looking to see if the pattern described here fits with what you see. You realize there's not a lot to go off of, but the pattern seems to fit. From there, it seems logical to, if not accept the conclusion (that Weasel has been acting like an Elim) at least weight it as being more likely than you thought before. 

Where did you make a mistake? You went looking for a pattern. You saw a logical argument, and looked for examples that supported it. Now, later in the cycle when little more has come to light and you feel the need to place a vote, you feel justified in voting for Weasel, even if you can't quite remember why. You say you have a bad gut read, that they seem the most suspicious, you cast a vote and join the consensus. You just engaged in pretty serious confirmation bias, without ever intending it. (And this isn't even the worst example, since at least you're not engaging in bias over a gut read, which also happens.)

Does that mean that suspicion will be wrong? Hell if I know.  Weasel might well be an elim; heck it's even fairly plausible that they are, like I said, what Chameleon said made sense, and what do you know, when I went looking for that same pattern, I saw it.  Just think twice before adding another vote without seriously considering and investigating other options. Three is enough for now. Give them a chance to respond while we discuss what else we have available.  

Speaking of, Scorpion. It's almost 10:30 and I really need to sleep, so I can't really write out suspicions ATM, and Dragonfly already has a vote, so I'll poke another option. I don't have the time, or the right information to get the ball rolling myself, but discuss your options. Flamingo, Albatross and others have all been viewed as suspicious recently, go over the whys and why nots, the pros and cons of various lynches. Please. Don't just have another bandwagon.

(Also, if anyone would be willing to PM me to discuss suspicions one on one, or better yet explain to me the gist of current suspicions and why, important pieces of info that have come to light and things that have happened, etc, etc, that would be much appreciated, I'm still kind of feeling things out in this game and trying to get a handle on what's gong on.)

...Okay.... does someone care to explain what the heck happened here? Yesterday was an utter mess. A nine to three bandwagon with vote manipulation on top of that? And no one thought that was sketchy while it was going on? (I was, unfortunately, otherwise occupied. I get off work about 30 mins post rollover, and had an early night the day before.) 

To respond to a comment from yesterday, @Onyx Flamingo just because the consensus has a village read does not make someone above suspicion. Several of Dragonfly's comments of the last two cycles have stuck me as off, at least from an outsider perspective (seeing as I just started paying attention to this game) and I plan to continue watching them closely. No quotes right now unfortunately, as I'm just about to leave for work. Expect actual analysis tonight, however.

I would have done day three discussion, but I still had no clue what was going on (and still don't really) (only one person deigned grant me a summary, and that person said they weren't the best person to do it (thanks anyways though I appreciate the effort)) and I was busy. (And I planned to make a post Sunday, then realized I missed the deadline by ~13 mins.) 

Anyways, I'm here now. Currently eyes on Flamingo, Dragonfly and Scorpion (and maybe Albatross?). Will hopefully be posting more in the future, when I can, as well as staying up to date on the thread.

Why hellooo, my fellow colorful animals, totally not a pinch hitter here, but just for the heck of it, anybody want to provide a summary of events and suspicions?*

(*Would ideally like at least two or more, of contrasting opinion.)

3 hours ago, Violet Axolotl said:

Pearl Chameleon

I'm also against the Gecko lynch. Their behaviour just doesn't seem like something an eliminator would do, and I really don't want to go down the rabbit hole of IKYK.

So... I'm going to put a vote on Coral Swan/Elyle. They seem the most suspicious to me at the moment, and I want to maintain a tied vote.

Could you be more specific about why you're suspicious of Coral Swan? 

I would echo the point to consider Dingo, and urge Dingo to be more active. I'm going to read over the analysis against swan, but at the moment it doesn't seem very strong, combine that with a general village read on Swan makes me skeptical. Furthermore, he's been really active so far. Having active players is better than non-active ones.

Melon Dingo. They were quite active until a couple of votes got thrown around on them, seems like a good way to slide back into the crowd as a potential elim as opposed to arguing. Note, could be a time zone/availability thing.

Flimsy logic? Yes. Better than nothing? Hopefully. Day One Lynch? Definitely.

Murder. Aldrick swore under his breath, his bones creaking as the cries echoed through the village. His old instincts kicked in, urging him to go to the scene of the crime, grab his enormous hammer, and beat some sense into the nearest evildoer. He closed his eyes and counted the breaths, letting his heartbeat slow. No. Aldrick sank back into his chair with a reluctant sigh. His time as a warrior was behind, nothing good could come from that path now. All he could do was try to guide them through the coming storm as best he could.