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Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia
Fifth Scholar replied to Steeldancer's topic in Sanderson Elimination
@Mr Doctor That’s some pretty solid analysis, and a lot of it. That’s great for your first time in SE. Bravo. I’ll respond to some of it, though. I’d point out that Len typically uses a more aggressive playstyle, regardless of his alignment, so I wouldn’t draw too much from this. Elim!Len, as stated before, is still aggressive. While it may seem disastrous for an Elim to strongly defend a player, keep in mind that this only holds if the player who is defended flips as an Eliminator, and since Elims already know who is who, they can come to the defense of a doomed villager without worry that the villager’s alignment will cast a negative light on them. I mostly agree with this—I don’t see any way for this to be a setup, and Bugsy seems village to me, so I don’t see anything malicious about the argument itself. I’m still wary of an Elim!Len trying to pocket Araris, though. You, my friend, have just encountered one of the most fundamental tenets of SE: a game of I Know You Know. You will forever be lost in its depths if you don’t withdraw immediately. Jokes aside, I’m mostly seeing Rand as village but given his skill at obscuring his alignment I’m taking my read with a grain of salt. I think progression of thought is associated with villagers because Eliminators cannot have it; they begin the game with perfect information about alignments, while villagers have to stumble around blindly trying to acquire this information. Therefore, villagers are more likely to progress in their reads as they receive more information and get past the initial stumbling stage. If El is lying about being Max, the real Max will counterclaim and we can lynch her for her dishonesty. As for now, though, I’m of a mind to trust El’s claim, unless someone else refutes it. El is not the type of person to lie about something like this (I think). You do bring up a good point here. This is another reason our former Man in Black should claim, to see what the thought process behind killing Kidpen was. All in all, that was excellent analysis from Doctor and I’m very tempted to just write him off as village for effort (I see at least three or four hours’ work behind that post). However, it’s SE, so I can’t trust anyone, though I maintain a strong village read on Doctor.- 862 replies
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Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia
Fifth Scholar replied to Steeldancer's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I’m...unsure if I believe Roadwalker’s claim? It seemed less of “I’m this person, here’s why” but more of a way of seeing how people responded to it. While he very well could be Max, I’d be unsurprised if he flips as a regular villager. That said, I agree that we should proceed as if there is no more healing, and everyone killed is dead permanently. Essentially, don’t count on Max to save us from mislynches. Umm...first, Miracle Max isn’t really “our” role, as he’s neutral. Second, there is no protection role in this game iirc, so there is no way of getting the Spaniard to claim and then guard him as he scans. Third, I’m not sure that we should instantly draw the line to Len as the Man in Black. If he wishes to claim as such, that’s fine, but assuming something like that likely isn’t the greatest idea.- 862 replies
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Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia
Fifth Scholar replied to Steeldancer's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Well, that’s awkward, the princess wasn’t supposed to die. I could say my hands are clean, but that would be a lie. I suppose little Alv couldn’t hear such a terrible story, Since Buttercup died before reaching her full glory. Now the rate of attrition will drastically decrease, As Westley’s nightly kills have completely ceased. So I would advise our Miracle Worker, Max, To perhaps take a day or two off and just relax. For if every person is resurrected after being killed, This game could go on for as long as Max willed. I suppose I’ll cast a vote later on in the turn; However, first I shall simply watch the thread and learn What other people think of this most tragic death, And if we should make Max draw his final breath. Fourteen lines is awkward, so I’ll just add two more To bring this poem four lines short of a full score. Yay for bad poetry! TL;DR—Buttercup died, I suppose I’m partially to blame, and without Westley killing people things will go much slower. Max should abstain from giving out a ton of pills so we can get information at a faster rate. I’ll put down a vote later but will wait for now and see what other people think.- 862 replies
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Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia
Fifth Scholar replied to Steeldancer's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I say that my activity has been dampened by a more sporadically busy summer, and that I’m having trouble getting reads due to the sheer size of the player base and my unfamiliarity with the rules. (The latter is actually fairly easy to rectify, and I’ll look at the rules and get a good grip on them tonight, if I can.) @Bort I believe I’ve already explained my vote, but if you have issues with my explanation feel free to question me.- 862 replies
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Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia
Fifth Scholar replied to Steeldancer's topic in Sanderson Elimination
It seemed to be general consensus even before my vote, and would generate a decent bit of information to analyze, which was my main reason for voting him. In addition, while I didn’t like the Araris lynch terribly much, most of the other options looked far worse, and I locked in the Araris vote to guarantee the information I wanted.- 862 replies
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Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia
Fifth Scholar replied to Steeldancer's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Okay, to explain my vote last cycle a bit more: I had a fairly busy weekend, and not much time to pore over the thread in exhaustive detail (especially with my mind still half in the MR that was wrapping up). The joking around and prevalence of w’s was making it hard to understand the initial section of the posts, which I basically wrote off as NAI, and I focused my time on the big Araris/Bugsy conflict. I didn’t really blame Araris for his slightly indignant reaction, as what Bugsy accused him of wasn’t really great evidence, but given the tone of Bugsy’s post it seemed fairly clear that he was joking. Araris put a vote on Bugsy (I think...did he?) and then Len jumped on Bugsy immediately afterwards, accusing him of being opportunistic. I found this slightly hypocritical, as Len’s vote felt way more opportunistic, but by the time I had left to vote (7 minutes into the cycle) there was basically nobody on Len so I voted on somebody within the three I had been looking at, to hopefully generate information for us to analyze as well as to protect the Araris wagon from vote manipulators. I don’t have two votes, but if Steel wants to give me an extra vote, I certainly won’t object.- 862 replies
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Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia
Fifth Scholar replied to Steeldancer's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I’ll retract from Devotary because my joke vote puts her closer to death than I realized. I suppose I’ll cement the vote on Araris Valerian, to hopefully get solid information to work with from the huge Bugsy debate.- 862 replies
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Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia
Fifth Scholar replied to Steeldancer's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Well. Since the thread is now mostly a heated exchange between Bugsy and Araris/Elenion, I feel I should chip in my two cents. I think Bugsy is being misunderstood here- he’s not actually attributing real suspicion to Araris for his comment, merely pointing something out, and the subsequent attack on him for pointing out something to Araris as a clarification is slightly disconcerting. I particularly don’t like the way Len jumped on him after his comments, and his suspicion of Bugsy reads as more opportunistic than Bugsy’s “suspicion” of Araris. I also fall closer to Bugsy’s view on Elim behavior- they generally want to take a backseat and cut ties to their fellow teammates, not push mislynches on villagers that they in turn may be killed for. I’m still having an issue reading the thread in full, particularly with the w’s layered over it, but I’ll place a serious vote soon.- 862 replies
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Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia
Fifth Scholar replied to Steeldancer's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Hello all. I haven’t had much time today but now do, and can check in here. You all put up a lot of posts, so hopefully you’ll forgive me for not understanding everything going on in thread right now. I’ll make an effort to read back over everything tonight and see if anything pops out. I’ll vote Devotary of Spontaneity for now, since I never got a chance to return the favor last game This will probably change once I read the thread properly.- 862 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Marne spluttered. He had never heard more ridiculous rhetoric against the Sithe in his life. Well, perhaps he had, considering there were millennia for him to hear such rhetoric. But he would respond anyway. “May I ask who started those long-ago fires of Myr Tariniel? It was this same Alaxel, Encanis, whatever he wishes to call himself—he is the one that condemned the seven great cities of the world to flame and ashes. He is the one who fought to corrupt and enslave and destroy all of mankind, and take them away from the light of Aleph. It was he who formed the Chandrian to fight us seven, and bring down ruin and desolation on the earth. And yet you bow and scrape before him! He, who has murdered countless, and wiped Locke from existence, separating him from his beloved parents and caring troupe, the latest cruel act in a line of countless previous ones. The only “home” he has sent the helpless Locke to is one of fire and pain, which he shall be rescued from when the world is ended and judgement is passed on him who has condemned so many to death. “You accuse me and my Sithe brethren of working with the Cthaeh? Do you not recall the blood and conflict unleashed by the Fastingsway War, the last time a mortal ventured near the tree of the Cthaeh? Or perhaps you forget the aftermath of your hero Lanre’s visit to the tree—he unleashed a war and a terrible conflict that brought to ruin the perfect peace I and my brethren had labored centuries to craft, and morphed and twisted him into the worst demon known to men. And these were singular men who spoke with the Cthaeh. Imagine if an entire troupe ventured towards the tree. The blood and chaos that would undoubtedly ensue, and the tragic ending each would come to. Truly tragic, unlike the simple stories you tell, but a tragedy told in the millions dead, among them each person here. The Cthaeh is intent, pure evil, malicious—it seeks to draw you all in, and we have kept ourselves away, and likewise keep others away as well. The exceedingly small chance of destroying that monstrosity is nothing compared to the terror that would be unleashed should we approach it. And the Sithe have learned not to. We have shot our own that venture too near the tree, and despite the claims this controller of Scrael makes, we will do the same to any who approach it, Fae or human. And so our camp is currently a very safe distance away from that nexus of evil, for the present, because we do not kill needlessly. “You seek to invoke the names of those killed? Than do so accurately. Neris died nobly of his own volition, offering his back to a knife that would have taken the life of a tinker- the same tinker who exposed your lies for what they really were. Squick and Ray were killed, but in no way were their deaths ‘forced’ by the Sithe, or their killers linked to us in any meaningful way. Your lot has more blood on their hands than the Sithe—the Sithe may kill those who approach the Cthaeh, yet you eliminate those who even speak of the Chandrian. And do not make false statements about the death of Aorais—the Monks and Namers who bound Encanis saw him stab Aorais without a second thought, yet you seek to pin the blame for his death upon my brethren, and then have the audacity to name me a liar. Do not pretend that we seek the death of this group, or that you are somehow innocent in all of this. Were it not for our Monks, your Fae brethren and Scrael and skindancers would have killed even more than they already have. You, not I, seek the death of this troupe, and although you do not know it I have been watching over some at night, insuring that they are not killed by you or your associate. Once both of you are dead, the Cthaeh cannot accomplish the goals he wishes to set, and we will have finally achieved the ultimate victory- removing Haliax from this earth, a serial murderer and corrupt devil, and all those who would assist him in throwing the world back into anarchy, no matter their honeyed talk. Once this is accomplished, we may all venture out of this enchanted wood, and this lost troupe will have the glory of being known as the final vanquishers of the true evil permeating these lands!”- 406 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Marne walked around the edges of the campfire, separate from the rest of the troupe, brooding in silence. Moving past people quickly, he muttered words of encouragement and support to those who he knew he could trust. To others, exchanges of suspicious glances were standard fare. He often wondered why the glances were returned. Then he would remember the flames, how he had nearly perished in them long ago, standing with six others on a mountainside in a falling city, Tehlu beside him, facing down seven enemies. The flames thrown, and how his burns and scars had nearly killed him. Holding the pass so men could escape Encanis, the first time. Marne was frankly astonished by the devotion some showed to Tehlu. He was of equal station to Marne, after all, and had only struck the finishing blow against Encanis. But no. Marne was disguised here for a purpose. And if the disfiguring scars and burns that patched his face would conceal him, he would accept suspicion as the price to be paid. Marne watched as a juggler, Gaskana, skillfully suspended eight flaming balls in the air, not seeming to notice the heat each time one briefly touched her gloved hand. He narrowed his eyes in suspicion. Gaskana had claimed to have used a sacred stone to help bind Encanis, but Marne had no recollection of such an object being loaned. He brushed by the tinker. “Did you hand a lodestone to that juggling woman over there, Reyalp?” “No sir, I didn’t. Do you want me to?” he replied. “No, that’s fine, thank you.” Marne’s eyes lowered even further. Gaskana had been chased away by Scrael earlier...but she had come back unharmed by the creatures, which he knew from experience to be supernaturally quick. Add to that her lies about the stone, and an absurd claim about being a child of a long-dead Jester...Marne slowly rose, allowing his glammourie to falter just slightly. A spot of flame, obscured by a vague shadow, hovered at his shoulder blade as he spoke to Gaskana. “You! I have seen your actions these past days. A Fae hunter noticed you getting involved in Resterford’s binding, which you claim was a stone you used, despite our trustworthy tinker denying these facts. Yet I seem to remember a fair number of Scrael in the woods before we started a fire to chase them off. Add to that your ridiculous claim about being Nelden’s daughter...well, that’s just plain unbelievable. I accuse you of treachery and of directing hostile Fae towards us!” Gaskana’s lips pulled into a snarl. Still juggling the flaming balls, she spoke the name of fire, flaring them white-hot. Suddenly, one of the balls whizzed out of her circle, speeding towards Laon. Marne—Kirel—removed his glammourie, extending his wings of fire and shadow, halting the flaming ball. He winced as the ball burnt the wing slightly. That will take a few decades to heal, he thought bitterly. Feeling himself glow with the thrill of battle for the first time in centuries, he spoke the name of water. The nearby creek burst upwards in an explosion of water, extinguishing the flaming balls, which dropped to the ground one by one. Marne turned towards Gaskana, who was dripping wet and disheveled, and uttered one word: “Why?” (Yes I’m roleclaiming. Yay, everyone already knows it so it’s fine.)- 406 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I strongly suspect Devotary right now with news that she’s targeted Wonko on Night Three, in my view with Scrael, but giving her the benefit of the doubt for now, as she claims something different, I’ll vote Megasif, who has mostly been voting to dodge the filter. I’d like suspicions/thoughts from you on people, as we draw nearer to the end of the game and the player list becomes considerably smaller. I retain suspicion of Itiah for being very quiet, and would also like to remind people that Drought/Xino being lovers does not clear them. At all. Outside those five, I don’t have really strong suspicions, though I agree with Rae that Walin’s vote does look weird and I’d appreciate a bit more from Eternum, whose analysis I’ve liked so far.- 406 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Drought, I’m going to apply your own analysis on a meta-level and suspect you for “forgetting” that Rae was a lover, which you will doubtless apologize for later In all seriousness, Rae is almost certainly good. I can vouch for her goodness, as could about three other people, but revealing them likely wouldn’t be the greatest idea. I have no qualms about vouching for her innocence though, so feel free to lynch me first and draw conclusions on Rae based on that. I’m going to switch my vote to Xionehp. I’m not comfortable with how quickly that vote went down. It’s possible you and Drought are lovers, and you’re acting to protect him, but one vote is not lynch pressure (or not significant pressure at any rate). I still have qualms about Drought’s alignment regardless of this, but Xionehp has been contributing fairly minimally all game, and combined with this vote it seems like he’s an elim trying to stay mostly undercover. Wish I had more to go off right now, but I really don’t, so I’ll likely sleep.- 406 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Ignoring Orlok, who somehow made it on the list without joining the game, Megasif and Itiah will die this cycle if they don’t vote, so I’m inclined to leave them alone in terms of the lynch, seeing as the filter will sort them out. I’m more curious about Drought, who we know has a lover that’s propping him up. I’d like to hear more from you, @Droughtbringer, considering you’ve been mostly silent so far. What are your thoughts on the game? (Note: Actually lynching Drought will probably flip two villagers but might flip two Elims, and I’m willing to take the risk simply for the amount of info it might give us, if Drought doesn’t respond.)- 406 replies
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mafia championship A Knock from Outside the Cosmere
Fifth Scholar replied to Metacognition's topic in Sanderson Elimination
We mainly used Discord, in community events. Wilson and I talked ourselves into thinking you were evil for sure I think someone unlocked that channel, so you can watch as we got the game wrong along with you, but way worse- 636 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Not really going to respond to all this, but you do make fair points, Bort. Again, I’ve been reading through the thread and hadn’t gotten very far, so I just wanted to share some initial concerns I had, and get a response from you and a few others earlier rather than later in the cycle. My main issue was simply that I saw your conversation with Wonko as potential distancing, similar to the kind he did with Elandera. Now that you and now CadCom have brought up thoughtful points against it, I do feel marginally better about you, but I’m sure you’ll forgive me for not clearing you entirely, as was my initial reaction. Final bit- first of all, if you look at all the interactions between Bard and I, you’ll notice that Bard is continuously suspicious of me, but not vice versa. This is because I don’t really blame Bard for suspecting me, as I’ll admit my ties to Elandera aren’t looking the greatest, and I’m mainly just looking to clear up whatever he’s suspecting me of. Voting on him is counterproductive when I have no evidence to indicate his evilness, or lack thereof. Again, I went after you because I found the early interaction between you and Wonko strange and possibly suspicious. It’s mostly been cleared up. And the interaction was notable to me not only because of its length but also the long streak of posts where it was just the two of you. Bard and I have had a slower pace of interaction, if a slightly longer one. (I’ll poke @Young Bard again so we can finish this debate, hopefully.) In short, I understand more fully now where you’re coming from, but I hope that you understand my perspective as well.- 406 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Kinda want to poke you just to see what your suspicions are, since our little feud is taking up a lot of threadspace I’d like to settle this sooner rather than later. I’m very little of the way into my readover of the thread but have gotten far enough that I suspect Bort. I realize this looks like a complete 180, but hear me out. The vast majority of the first page is dominated by a huge Elandera-Bort-Wonko conversation. These are the relevant bits: Elan: (RP criticizing tinkers) Bort: (RP with a question for Elan, distancing?) Steel: Squids, because squids. Wonko: Clarifies questions from Elan, which is definitely distancing. Also does the same for Bort making me suspect more distancing. Bort: Pokes Wonko (distancing or joke vote, or both?) Wonko: Falsely indignant reaction, reference to Chandrian song. Is either pocketing Bort or distancing. Bort: Says he’s never read KKC Wonko: More novel-based clarification, again either distancing or pocketing Bort: Question over whether he should vote Elan for insulting tinkers (directed at Wonko). At this point the length of the conversation is making me suspect distancing even more. Wonko: Says “I’m thinking about it” but doesn’t actually apply pressure Bort: Joke post that almost reads as distancing a bit from Elan Only at this point do I post and break the Bort/Wonko streak. I strongly suspect this entire first page was meant as a lighthearted way to subtly distance the Elims from each other. The sheer length of the Bort/Wonko exchange looks unnatural for an ostensibly normal conversation, and while pocketing is an option distancing is more likely, as Wonko doesn’t really seem to be trying to gain Bort’s trust and again the sheer length and strange style of the interaction makes me lean Elim on Bort. I recognize this would be a fairly gutsy play, but it is definitely something to consider, and is well within the range of possibility. This analysis does seem really tunnelly looking back at it but I suppose the way the interaction went just rubbed me the wrong way. Would someone better at analysis than me like to look over this? Oh, and I suppose I should mention these posts which happened later in the cycle. These are copied directly from my notes so expect slight incoherence Wonko: responds to me a bit, “clarifies” if Elim team are Fae, pokes Bort with a vote (distancing?) Orlok: Votes Wonko Bort: Defends his Wonko vote but retracts it anyway, puts vote on Elan (either good intuition or clever distancing) Elan: Backtracks on earlier RP comments, pokes Eternum (who looks village, likely trying to deflect suspicion by poking inactive) So another interaction heavy on a Elims and Bort’s in the middle of it again, with lots of distancing to go around. Fun! (Someone please check my analysis it’s likely dead wrong)- 406 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I can second this. I like referencing AG4, where I trusted most of the elim team and lost the game for the village. Nobody really has any clue what they’re doing, except maybe Orlok and Rand Good to know Orlok wasn’t lying (I’m assuming- he could have claimed a role different from the one he has, but he’s still confirmed village/nonexistent, so he’s more likely to be telling the truth). I can confirm our Namer exists, and is village, though he or she hasn’t told me why there’s no message this cycle.- 406 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I am currently attempting to analyze quite literally the entire thread post-by-post, and will publish my results later. I suspect Orlok’s disappearance has to do with Encanis, and Wonko is likely chuckling into his sleeve in his fiery iron pit knowing we’ll never see Locke again. For the record, Orlok roleclaimed Minor Singer to me on the first cycle. If anyone wants to confirm this, they can.- 406 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I suppose we did need a Monk to kill/banish Encanis. Nice work, mystery Monk. Just got to keep finding the rest of the Elim team for us I’ll look back through Wonko’s posts now that his alignment is confirmed and see what I can dig up. I’ll respond to questions, mostly Bard’s, in a bit.- 406 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Fair enough, I suppose. I’ve certainly done so in the past. Yeah kinda realized this right after posting. I mean, a bus is a possibility, but the #1 suspect for an Elandera bus is definitely Orlok, who I’m clearing, so I should likely drop this train of thought- 406 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Sorry for my inactivity here- I’ve been in a PM whirlwind and haven’t actually said much in thread. I’ll add my vote to Wonko on the assumption that I was wrong, and our Monk is actually really good at guessing targets. Bravo to the Monk (and Orlok). I’ll point out that Wonko is either Encanis, a Skindancer, or Cinder, as the Scraeling Master used their action last cycle to block Devotary’s vote, apparently. I know I was previously operating under the assumption of a four-person Eliminator team, but I realized it could be five if two of them were lovers. Which leads me to doubt the cleared nature of Drought somewhat, I suppose. My readslist from earlier, updated with current information. I realize Eternum plummeted, and he’s in the neutral category because I want to reassess him. I shifted the Bard/Drought pair down a bit to reflect my new thoughts on an Elim couple.- 406 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I checked Eternum and Bard as promised. Eternum’s posts look and sound very village, and I’m not really sure what I was reading him as evil for. Putting him in my tentative trust group. Bard is a bit different. He’s popped in only thrice, and seems to be distancing himself from Drought with a poke-vote earlier last cycle. He afterwards didn’t come on at all later in the cycle, despite my poke (though to be fair I forgot to tag him). He’s gone after me the whole game, which probably hasn’t helped my read on him, but looking at the extra Drought vote on me I could easily see Bard as Drought’s Ciridae lover partner. So I’m tentatively looking at this: Strong Village Rae, Snipexe, Orlok***, Bort, Fifth Village Eternum, Devotary Slight Village Drought, Bard, Alv Others Megasif, Wonko, Aonar, Xionehp, Walin, Itiah, CadCom, Arinian Dead Elandera, Steel ***Orlok is Orlok and should never be fully trusted without being scanned. Ever. (Plus I’d still like him to respond to my accusation thing from earlier) I’d really be happy looking at anyone in the “slight village” or “others” category, or even the two people in my “village” box. The only people in the strong village box are those that are basically hardcleared. (I put myself in there. Call this whatever you want.) Note- I do not discount anyone, in any box, from being the Cthaeh. That will be a tougher nut to crack, but if we kill all the Elims we don’t really need to worry about him because he can only win if one elim survives with him.- 406 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
I don’t think this is the case—I believe they’re abstaining, though I’m unsure why. It’s a bit too perfect if our Monks and Namers have caught Elims sending in kills twice (and if they had we would have heard about it). Personally, I could see the Elims choosing not to kill so the Cthaeh doesn’t have an easier time of things as he starts trying to drag the village numbers down, and to give them more time to find and lynch him before trying to outnumber the village as part of their normal win condition. However, again, this is all speculation and doesn’t make for particularly useful discussion. Umm...so could you explain this? As one of the “top wagons,” and a fairly frequent poster, there should be a plethora of evidence to look over about me. Meanwhile, observing that “Elims were content to sit out,” while also admitting that you hadn’t voted for two days, and were voting on me just not to die, isn’t inspiring any confidence in me. Megasif, somewhat as a placeholder until I can figure out what the heck happened at the end of last cycle.- 406 replies
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Mid-Range Game 29: A Midsummer Night with No Moon
Fifth Scholar replied to DrakeMarshall's topic in Sanderson Elimination
To get a sense for Orlok playing as a bluffing Eliminator, I read back through QF27, which didn’t really help with my Orlok paranoia, nor my current analysis of him. There aren’t any significant parallels I can draw between that Orlok and this one, so I’m still reading Orlok as village, especially given his helpfulness and general commentary. Actually, there might be one: So my main issue with this is the assumption that the Cthaeh *would* act a certain way. I’m not sure I particularly like this logic, because each person is going to play being a certain role a different way. This is (supposedly) the way Orlok would play things, but Alv pointed out another way to go about it, and I could mention various others, I’m sure. There isn’t a right/wrong way of playing a certain role that instantly disproves you from being it by just taking one action. I’m actually closer to Alv’s view of things here, as the Cthaeh has no particular incentive to work alongside the elim team to the exclusion of all else. So Orlok bringing this up does not clear him in my eyes from being Cthaeh, and reminds me of similar posts of his from QF27: (For reference (thinking of newer players), Orlok was an Eliminator in QF27 and pulled one of the most dastardly moves in SE history, getting the Eliminator team to attack and save him twice. The sheer unlikelihood of this led to the village universally trusting him, and these posts are Orlok responding to his only opponent. This was particularly egregious considering his name was literally a variant of Sauron’s, the exact variant he’d used to deceive the Elves before, in fact. But I digress) So yeah. Despite all this, I still maintain a strong trust of Orlok, though it’s mitigated by his recent statement. I do think that he is in no way an Eliminator, but I would definitely not be surprised post game if he flips as such, and wouldn’t put a D1 bus of a teammate behind him just to pick up trust reads. But as I’ve said repeatedly, I maintain a strong village read on him, a lot of which is coming from our PM. I realize that I (think I) am currently leading in votes once I retract from Snipexe. While I don’t appreciate his vote on me and certainly don’t like his connection to Elandera (though I acknowledge mine is fairly large as well), he did say he would be leaving and unable to respond, so my vote is currently not constructive at all. In addition, while his defense isn’t rock hard, it is believable, and I’d rather not tunnel if I don’t have to. I’m really tempted to join Wonko’s Devotary vote out of both self-preservation, retaliation, and a not-insignificant amount of paranoia. However, I recognize Devotary’s logic, which is solid and grounded in reason, and wouldn’t like to vote her without a better reason. However however, both Wonko and Orlok (in PM) suspect her, and I kinda feel like a few comments of mine were being misrepresented in her accusation of me. But she still seems village... ...eh, storm it. Devotary of Spontaneity. Not my favorite vote, and if I had time I’d go and make another target, but I don’t. I do hope to analyse Bard and Eternum soon, however. The way I see it, the more untested people we allow information to get into the hands of, the more variables we introduce and the more information is lost/misrepresented, but that’s my view. I certainly understand where you’re coming from, and should I receive information I will not directly route it to Orlok, but pass it on elsewhere. I would speculate that any conversion mechanic would be in the hands of the Cthaeh, but that’s just speculation. The rhinna flowers might stop a lynch in exchange for an alignment swap, or something like that. I’m not sure, and while such speculation is fun to participate in it does distract from the main discussion, so I’m not going to worry about it too much.- 406 replies
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