Devotary of Spontaneity

I don't believe anyone from CadCom's faction actually addressed this. Did CadCom in fact change his mind in the doc well before he changed his vote in the thread? @Fifth Scholar, what caused you to change your mind about the relative suspicion of CadCom and the Independents? If you're not even particularly confident about your top Independent suspect, it would seem you had a reason to downgrade your suspicion of CadCom. Do you still stand by this statement, @Young Bard? At the time you posted this, Elephant and Steel had not yet claimed to be Barons, while MetaTerminal and Walin were not revealed as Independents. There's a decent chance the Spirits would have gained information they didn't already know had the faction lists been posted at that time. I don't believe we should lynch Itiah this cycle, unless we get solid evidence beyond his role. If he's a villager, killing him only reveals that there is a traitor in the Wildman doc, which we know already. We know he's Dashe, so if he's evil he would have to be a convert. His death would then remove a convert, but it wouldn't necessarily tell us anything about how many Wildmen were also evil, as an evil Dashe could easily have lied and said one Spirit when there were actually two, and the Spirits may still have conversions left. We haven't heard from @Droughtbringer in over five days, though he has been online to potentially submit orders. I would have expected Drought to contribute more if he was evil, especially since him being an Independent rather than a Wildman means he can't just show up, submit a kill and log off. Has anyone received a PM from him since he last posted? I'll probably vote for either CadCom or Bard, but I'm going to wait and see if anyone responds to this before making a final decision.

During cycle 2, I asked Fifth how he had managed to determine the identity of the traitor, given that he had said in PM that there were four members of his faction at the time. Fifth told me that me that he had received a Karata claim from someone other than Shqueeves. Further, as he knew Dashe's identity and ruled out himself, he was able to single out Shqueeves as being the traitor. Evidently, there was some lying going on, as Fifth claimed that Dashe knew Karata's identity during cycle 2 and Dashe now denies that. However, I do believe Fifth was telling the truth about knowing Karata's identity, as he was too sure that Shqueeves was the traitor rather than Elandera.

I'm fairly sure that Itiah would only lie about his scan results if he was evil. If that's the case, then the Spirits would have the Wildmen list, as Itiah is currently part of the Wildman doc.

There can only be an Independent Wildman if there are six Barons or eight Independents. We know that there were five starting Children of Karata, and Itiah claims seven original Wildmen if his joining them made eight in the doc. You have claimed that there are currently four players in the Baron doc, which means the Barons started with only five players (unless the Barons have all decided to lie about how many members they started with for whatever reason. For now, I will assume that is not the case.) With two multi-factional Independents, that's a total of 22 players(5 Barons + 7 Wildmen + 5 Children + 5 pure Independents). That means that if any Wildman Independent exists, there's a pure Independent who did not make it onto your list. I would be surprised if 7.33 Independents rounded up to eight, but 4.4 Children rounded up to five while 5.5 Barons rounded down to five, so it's not impossible. The writeup only indicates that two or three people were attacked: Coop, MetaTerminal, and Mailliw. The phrase 'killed in Action' in reference to Mailliw's death, and the fact that Mii was trying to kill someone in his death scene, suggest that Mailliw may have died because his target fought back. Only the attacking Wildmen know for sure why they targeted who they did, but Coop had been a target for several cycles, and both he and MetaTerminal had recently been revealed as Independents. If Mailliw was attacked by a fellow Wildman, it may have had something to do with him claiming Dahad roleblocked him, or perhaps the PM he had with Fifth was the motivation.

He has claimed such to me as well, and in the absence of anyone else claiming to have been healed the same cycle, I'm inclined to believe him. I can confirm that Coop and I are Independents. You've listed four Independents and Fifth make five, but with one third of the starting players being Independents, we presumably have a total of seven. That leaves two Independents who have yet to be outed to the thread. It may be worthwhile for those two to be publicly revealed if a consensus is reached that the Spirits likely started with an Independent. I would agree that the Spirits likely did start with an Independent, partially because Galladon's ability to learn the identity of two players from a target player's gang seems overpowered if the Spirits started with the player lists of two different gangs. Even with randomness and repetition, having Galladon start in the Wildmen or the Barons would let the Spirits learn everyone's gang membership quite quickly.

If @I think I am here. is indeed Dashe, I don't believe that Fifth can be Karata. If Karata and Dashe were Fifth Scholar and Itiah, they should not have been able to deduce that Shqueeves rather than Elandera was the Spirit last cycle, even if Elandera had been the beneficiary of the Children's protective action both cycles. Had Dashe's scan turned up two traitors, I assume they would have said so in order to get the second Spirit killed by the Wildmen. The scenario suggested by Bard's PM spying, where Fifth was aware of Elandera being Karata prior to this cycle, means that Fifth would have been able to narrow down the suspects to Shqueeves last cycle. For this and the other reasons brought up, I will be voting Elandera. Coop has apparently survived multiple attacks. All the Children have claimed, so we know that's not the reason he's still alive. Unless Bodyguard nullification counts as protection and the bodyguard somehow managed to survive the experience, the only two reasons that I can see for Coop's continued existence are 1. He's part of the Spirit's gang and 2. He's been healed by the Baron's faction action. Would any Barons/Independents in contact with a Baron like to attest to the second possibility?

Ashertma hobbled along the empty streets of Elantris. Few came to these alleyways at this time of day, but that was all right. She was never truly alone so long as she had the Voice for company. Today, it hadn't even asked her to dance. She had instead been tasked to forage for food, a command she was only too happy to comply with. If only Elantris supplied material fit for human consumption. After a delicious meal of slime mixed with a copious amount of dirt and pebbles, she felt no less hungry than before. Perhaps she could find something to distract herself from the hunger, preferably something that wouldn't cause her more pain when the Voice decided to leave her. Ashertma began to walk towards the center of the city. The Voice was an excellent companion, but having another Elantrian to talk with probably wouldn't hurt. The main reason for voting Shqueeves, namely that it would be suicide for Fifth or Dashe to lie about a scan result, had already been brought up by Fifth and BR. For not providing much useful information, this is likely true. I should be able to contribute something next cycle.

Presuming nobody provably counterclaims Fifth and/or Dashe, Shqueeves seems to be a solid lynch.

The only attacks in the game are the Wildmen attacks and Baron Aanden's stone blocks. I doubt the goal was to implicate Mail, because the 40% of the target fighting back means a 40% chance that an attacking Wildman would have been exposed. I presume that if Baron Aanden or Shaor had been converted, we would have heard about it due to the sudden dissolution and redistribution of a faction doc. As villagers, if these gang leaders suspected Mail they could have just attacked him directly instead of trying to implicate him. That might work, although there are a few roles that can interfere with that. Aanden could sabotage the process by attacking the proposed target himself, dealing one pain level to every Wildman who also attacks the target. I don't see why he'd do this unless he was converted though, in which case we'll have advanced warning.I suppose we could have purple executions carried out by Aanden, which would remove this problem entirely. Dahad can roleblock, but that shouldn't apply unless he's really lucky, or unless Aanden is designated to carry out the execution and Dahad has learned his faction leader's identity. The bodyguard could protect the target, although that would probably be suicidal and kill some of the bodyguards faction members. Finally, if the designated target is a Child of Karata, they might be able to use the factional ability to protect themselves. As an informal, nonbinding system of "If I could kill anyone, it would be this particular player" though, purple votes could be effective.

It's the end of the cycle, and most of the few votes are pokes that never went away because the target didn't respond. @Sart and @Young Bard have yet to post this cycle, though both of them have given academic-related reasons for not posting recently. The other candidates are BR, Straw, and MetaTerminal. The vote on BR appears to be the Gods's disfavor. While Straw is posting a bit less than usual, I don't believe it's too far outside his normal playstyle. @MetaTerminal's shift from a poke vote seems reasonable, though he said he might come back with updated reads and hasn't yet. I do think he's right that we should have a lynch today, but I don't really want to vote for Bard when he'll be more available around 12 hours from now apparently. I also do prefer Bard's posts to those of Sart, as Sart seemed a bit too eager to hop onto the faction list plan.

The incredibly exciting vote tally is: YoungBard(2): Cadmium Compounder, MetaTerminal MetaTerminal(1): Kidpen BR(1): Alvron Today was one of the bad days, when the Voice was absent for hours at a time. Amidst the silence, even the hunger was overwhelmed by pain. Every nick and scrape she had acquired over the last three months, the sharp pain in her tongue where she had bitten it attempting to consume small rocks, the bruises and knots received from sleeping on the ground. Worst of all were her ankles, which never recovered from the hours of dances she had performed under the Voice's influence. Some part of her knew that the Voice was only making things worse for her in the long run, but the sharp pain signals screaming at her made her yearn for nothing but the blissful pain-free delight that the Voice could bring. As she crawled towards the center of Elantris, she begged the Voice to free her from this agony. No response. Ashertma continued on her journey. The pain could cause the hunger to dull in comparison, but nothing short of actual food could sate the emptiness for any period of time.

If you see something, possibly relating to your votes on GMs, @Kidpen almost certainly can see the upper reaction post. If what Coop can see is just one of his turn 1 posts, there shouldn't be a particular reason to hide it.

Ashertma hated her body's fragility. One could not properly revel with greatly reduced stamina that robbed her of the ability to dance for hours on end like she used to. The fact that even the slightest injury lingered permanently and brought her closer to insanity probably should have given her more pause than it did, seeing as how she was already in agony from her sprained ankles. The worst part was the constant hunger, even worse here in Elantris than it had been in the outside world. The city was a barren place, bereft of anything Ashertma had once called food. Only the new arrivals carried sustenance, and Ashertma hobbled far too slowly to catch any of them. The Voice still spoke to her, as it had ever since she'd been taken by the Shaod three months ago. Feast. Dance. Revel. Ashertma always felt better when the voice spoke. It took away the pain, for a time. It was powerless to lessen the sensation of starvation though, and Ashertma had taken to consuming anything that appeared remotely edible. Wood, small chunks of stone, paper if she could get it. She'd even tried the omnipresent slime a few times, though the rot that infected that was nearly as unpalatable as her own flesh. Lynching Joe apparently accomplished nothing productive. Looking at the vote tally, it appears that Raoden decided not to use vote manipulation. The invasion countdown timer is worrying, the ten turns probably means that we'll want to have ended the game before the timer reaches zero. Failing to lynch someone is now more dangerous, in that case.

From the percentages, out of 22 players, we have 5.5 Barons, 4.4 Children, 7.33 Wildmen, 7.33 Independents, and 2 Spirits. Even with these all rounded down, this adds up to five more people than are actually playing. Putting both Spirits in one of the four gangs would bring the excess down to three. Making a player multi-factional decreases this number by two, so let's say the Barons have six players to make an even number, meaning two players would then be multi-factional(or three if the Spirits aren't in any gangs). Five Children and five Barons is the likely alternative; I can't see either 7.33 being rounded up to eight. Assuming BR and Alvron are right about Independents not being in any of the other three village factions, and that the Spirits are in one of the four gangs, the player list might look something like this, with multi-factionals in italics. List One: Crimsn, Fifth, Xino, Kidpen, BR, Devotary. List Two: Crimsn, Elandera, Steel, Walin, CadCom, Mailliw, Itiah. List Three: Elandera, Alvron, Straw, Drought. A five and five scenario would temporarily obscure the factional identity of lists one and two to those who aren't in either faction. We wouldn't get the Independent list, but just knowing that there were seven players not in any other lists we would learn Independent/Spirit: Lopen, Shqueeves, Meta, Elephant, Coop, Sart, Bard. If five or six players weren't included in any faction lists, we would learn that there are two or one multi-factional Independents, who would be outed once they sent out a PM. What these lists don't provide(so far as I can tell, anyway) is any indication of where the two Spirit members are located, unless the Spirits aren't in any of the four factions, in which case the identities of the Spirits could be determined by having the Independents send out PMs. Unless people have good reason to believe that the Spirits aren't in any of the four factions, I don't believe creating faction lists would be productive.

Ashertma ceased her silent dance to realize that the inhabitants of the city had started discussion without her. Perhaps the newcomers had food. She would have to find out. Outing the independents is not the worst consequence, as Independents need to out themselves in order to use one of their abilities(creating PMs). The chances are fairly high that the Independents will eventually end up sending a message to a Spirit or a converted Spirit. For 2 and 3 though, I don't think we'll be able to tell which is the case unless everyone is in one of the three main gangs or a full third of players plus two aren't on any of the lists, which limits the useful information we would get out of this. If I'm wrong about this, please tell me.

I'll join as Ashertma, a woman who believes death should be enjoyed to its fullest. Eat and drink, dance and sing, for tomorrow you may be hoed. Those percentages add up to more than 100%. 25%+33%+20%+33%=111%, not counting Raoden and Galladon. Do the Wildmen actually have two sub roles, or is bodyguard a role every wildman possesses? Will we be informed at the beginning of the game what percentage of players the Spirit's can convert? Is it possible for players randomly converted when a Gang leader flips to be assigned to the Spirits, and if so, would that count towards the conversion limit? What is the order of actions?

I did enjoy playing these games, even though I did not participate as much as I could have. For timing purposes, possibly 24 hours for the first round and second rounds and then 48 hours for the third? I feel like a lot of the time in the early rounds was spent waiting for more information, but then we ended up needing all the time in the second play-through to arrive at an answer so maybe that's a bad suggestion.

Obviously, I am the Witness. There's no way John Smith could have stolen my ants without me noticing. Or perhaps it's Fluffy the Whitespine, who only wanted John's spirit to be put to rest.

@Herowannabe, I accuse Droughtbringer using Rioting and leaving behind a False Beard.

I'm probably going to guess one of Droughtbringer: Rioting + False Beard, Kidpen: Patji's Finger + Saddle strap, or Walin: Skull + Fire within the hour. Does anyone have opinions on which is most likely to be right/would give the most information even if wrong? @MetaTerminal, @Steeldancer, @I think I am here., @Kidpen, and @Cadmium Compounder still have yet to make an accusation.

My current top suspicions are: Kidpen: Patji's Finger + Lak/Saddle Strap Droughtbringer: Rioting/Punch +False Beard Things that I probably should have crossed off but haven't: Madagascar: Dueling cane/Aimian + Boots Rathmaskal: Hemalurgic Chimera + Artifact/Scorch Marks I am not really happy with any of these combinations, and will try to go through all the evidence again before the game ends.

The Location and Cause of Death tiles cannot be removed, so Hero had to choose one of the other four tiles. I assume from PK's comments that Oracle's remove clues specifically because they're misleading, and not because the Investigators have already gotten all relevant information out of that clue, but perhaps anyone else who has played the base game can confirm? Supposing 'Footprint' was merely the least bad clue out of a completely useless and misleading scene tile, we would have to check that none of these proposed solutions could possibly be represented by fingerprint, bruises, blood stain, body fluid, or residual investiture. I would say that an Awakened rope and possibly allomantic rioting would fit better under residual investiture than footprint, while dehydration could be represented by body fluid (or rather, the lack of them).

Along with explosions, we can probably remove animals that would have eaten a corpse, which are Nightmaw, Whitespine, Mistwraith, Deepwalker, Chasmfiend, and possibly Hemalurgic Chimera and/or Firesnap lizards. I would say we could also remove fire. I would be willing to guess Dehydration/hoofprints if Bort's guess is incorrect. I think that fits the clues better than combinations such as Acid/boots, Firesnap lizards/footprint, Cut-away vines/Wetleek sap trail, or Patji's finger/saddle strap.

The murderer has to select their evidence and means of murder before the scene tiles are drawn, and since only four scene tiles are randomly drawn out of twenty one possibilities, chances were high that the scene tile with 'footprint' as a choice would not have been drawn. 'Footprint' as evidence would be quite difficult to guess for most of the other twenty scene tiles, so Bort should not be cleared simply because 'footprint' is too obvious a clue. However, Bort is less likely to be the murderer with one possibility discounted, and the booby trap is far less likely to be the murder weapon.

If nothing is bold, it usually means that I don't have any particular reason to favor one of the remaining items over the others. In Drought's case, all three items could relate to wilderness and/or footprint, while the bolded items stand out more. Boots, for instance, is evidently related to footprint/wilderness while Children's book, cracked gemstone, fancy dress, and larkin corpse really aren't.