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Devotary of Spontaneity

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  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The Practitioners would need to vote eventually, since that's the only other way to kill Jeskeri Cultists. There is, however, no scenario where the Jeskeri Practitioners are completely wiped out without the main Inquisition. If necessary, the Jeskeri Cultists would claim in the Jeskeri doc and hammer a Korathi on the way out. We'd end up with 1-3 Practioners depending on how well they do rooting out Cultists, the Korathi Cultist, and maybe 6 or so Korathi depending on how many times the Cultists had to kill a Practitioner, how many Inquisitions the Jeskeri skipped, and assuming a 13/5/2/1 distribution. That leaves a decent chance of winning for everyone I think; the Cultist can claim in PMs in self preservation but there's nothing stopping the Practitioners from false-claiming the same. It would take a while for the Cultists to win, but it would be possible. Doing things this way could be beneficial, but I don't see a clear advantage in doing so. The point of this game is that it auto-balances so no team can maintain a big advantage. It is possible to disrupt that balance by killing too many Cultists too quickly, but that's not incredibly likely to happen and voting in thread is certainly more interesting.
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Any word from @Illwei, @Araris Valerian, @xinoehp512, @Lord_Silberfarben, @Frozen Mint? I'll switch from Mage to Orlok unless people suddenly show up to vote Mage.
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'll be Serenken, a former Arelish citizen who now resents Elantrians and any connection to Aons.
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'd rather vote for Mage than Orlok at this point, but that might change depending on how votes go.
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Why the smiley face? It's too early for a hammer unless all the elims are active(and especially if there's five left), but this looks like what someone who knew Araris wasn't evil would say. Araris was one of the people I was probably going to vote for but this just seems odd.
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Well we presumably don't have anyone with Transformation since we haven't had any alignment or surge scans. I guess it could be a complete inactive, but that's almost the same as nonexistent at this point. Both vote manips could be elim, Windrunner + 50% squire, but that would probably mean giving up on the KR's Gravitation kill. On the potentially village side we've got Bondsmith squire, Stoneward, and 50% Stoneward squire, all of which could theoretically be evil, but I doubt the elims would have had a Windrunner and a Stoneward and neither of them bothered to save Striker. Whoever removed a vote on Matrim probably didn't notice the final vote count, or was willing to burn a stormlight to pretend they didn't. Araris was in a bit more danger.
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    You're were never in serious danger, never led the vote tally at any point. You had the potential to die, but recent votes seem to have decided you'll survive the day. I feel not great about the people voting for Pyro and Araris. I think I'd be okay with either dying though.
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It was more that any suspicion of Matrim doesn't come until D2, but that's essentially right. I can look at Matrim D1. Matrim was the third vote on Striker when the count was TJ Shade (3): Elbereth, Eternum, Ventyl StrikerEZ (2): Gears, Sart Gears (2): Orlok Tsubodai, StrikerEZ Devotary(1): Araris which is certainly not nothing. Contrary to that post, it wasn't Matrim's last post of the cycle, which was instead stating that a tie would be beneficial. Matrim certainly could have saved Striker, but would have needed to explain the difference between doing so and previously stating an unwillingness to vote for TJ, Gears, or Ventyl D1. Elim!Matrim was kind of backing themselves into a corner by saying that in addition to announcing no more posts that turn, although Matrim could have voted for me and chose not to. It would definitely be risky to vote for a teammate here. Slightly less risky if Araris was also an elim planning to switch from me to TJ; worth noting that Matrim is currently voting for Araris. Actual cycle's vote count is Pyro(3): Araris, Orlok, Mint Araris(2): Matrim, Mage Matrim(2): Pyro, Devotary I'm not seeing a strong link for Matrim and Pyro both being evil, @Orlok Tsubodai if you'd like to expound. The closest things I can remember are Pyro asking for Matrim's opinions a couple of times and Matrim noticing Pyro say 'when I flip elim' but not saying anything about it. I'll vote Matrim for now and see where things stand closer to rollover. There don't seem to be any other active players who haven't voted yet, but @Illwei, @Lord_Silberfarben, @The_Truthwatcher and @xinoehp512 have at least been on the Shard recently.
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I guess the elims decided TJ wasn't going to die anytime soon. I thought it would take a little longer since there were still people pushing for that. Araris and Mage are still plausible elims with Lahilt being a villager. If we just give up trying to learn anything from D1 we can start looking at people like Matrim. He did a squire's work of defending Ventyl D2 where an elim would have still defended Ventyl while wanting him dead. D2 ended pretty ideally for elim!Matrim, but it didn't look intentional for that to happen. There would probably have to be other elims pushing in that direction if Matrim were evil. Of the four people who voted for Ventyl, Orlok, Truthwatcher, Mage, and I are alive. Of those, I'd probably go for Mage as he's also on a previous list. Truthwatcher was involved in the weird fake-vote for Ventyl D1 that, if real, would be suspicious. I haven't been looking at Orlok recently.
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Lahilt(5): Mint, Matrim, Araris, TJ, Devotary TJ(2): Silber, Mage Mage(1): Lahilt I've been not great at getting votes in, but maybe if I vote now I'll do better? Or maybe it'll just give me an excuse not to pay attention to EOD. I'd expect at least one of Lahilt, Araris, and Mage to be an elim. Araris and Lahilt are the least likely elim pairing from that group of three, both from today's votes and from the D1 split. I am willing to vote for Lahilt today. I do hope to check in before rollover.
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    That's definitely not true. The vote count when Striker voted for TJ was StrikerEZ (4): A Joe in the Bush, Gears, Matrim's Dice, Sart TJ Shade (3): Araris Valerian, Elbereth, Eternum Ventyl (3): Lahilt, Magestar, TJ Shade A Joe in the Bush (1): Ventyl Gears (2): Orlok Tsubodai, StrikerEZ Note how TJ and Ventyl have the same number of votes here, and neither of them are currently voting for Striker. Striker votes for TJ, TJ switches to Striker. Striker votes for Ventyl, Ventyl switches to Striker. There's no mechanical difference. Voting for TJ goes against the grain of recent votes, while going for a claimed Radiant Striker knows will flip village increases suspicion on him in future cycles, but both are about equal in terms of survivability not taking the elim team into account. Whichever of Ventyl and TJ had fewer elims voting on them would seem to be easier to swing the vote to, but that didn't actually end up happening, so I'm not entirely sure what was going on with that. Striker/Lahilt/Mage/TJ is a (silly) possibility, but even then neither Striker nor TJ had to die. Getting saved with vote manipulation doesn't mean you're evil, after all. We never actually found out who removed the vote from Gears, since Gears wasn't a surgebinder.
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    We've had the discussion about TJ being evil I'm pretty sure. Strategically, it may have been a good idea for elims!TJ and Striker to make sure one of them died D1, but strategy doesn't beat out enjoyment and I sincerely, sincerely doubt Striker(dies D1 a lot, hasn't been elim often) or TJ(first elim game) would have chosen death unless there was no other option, and we know there were other options because Gears and Ventyl were villagers. I do have a tendency to underestimate ruthlessness, but I just don't see it. Assuming TJ is a villager presumably means the elims either went for TJ or Ventyl D1 after the votes on Gears started to fall away. The people who did either are Araris(TJ), and Mage(switched over from TJ), Truthwatcher(tried and failed to vote, but then twice posted later knowing that the vote didn't go through yet didn't care to actually vote Ventyl), and Lahilt. I do think Lahilt is the most suspicious of the Ventyl votes, but would like to ask @The_Truthwatcher why you didn't back up your stated intent to vote Ventyl by actually colouring it in red.
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Kitchen. I won't be around to check, but I do hope we have more votes than this by the end of cycle. I'll vote Gears I guess, since it's the best option I have at the moment. If Eternum is still alive next cycle it would definitely be worth killing him. The end, perhaps. Unfortunate if true. Beral would never get a chance to become a Faceless Immortal, fanciful as that dream might seem, if they died here. Exploring what lay beyond death might be interesting though. Not even Harmony knows what happens to those who meet their final end. Before that though, Beral would get to speak with Harmony, face to face, and thank Him for facing the suffering He knows He cannot solve without turning His back on the world. Perhaps Beral would live a little longer, but some day, even an immortal will succumb while Harmony endures.
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Gears(5): Matrim, TJ, Araris, Illwei, Mage Lahilt(2): Mint, Gears Mint(1): Pyro Araris's lengthy multiquote analysis of single players isn't something he's done as a villager, but it also doesn't seem to be an elim thing either so it may just be a new strategy. I think a lot of the reason I was feeling bad about Mage is how much he's focused on TJ being evil when I've been reasonably sure that isn't the case. At this point though, pushing for someone so many cycles in a row with little to no external support is starting to seem more village. If Gears is evil, I'd be curious to know who removed a vote from them but didn't do so from Striker D1. I think that's the main reason I'm hesitant about voting Gears. I couldn't find anyone who was definitely around for D2 but definitely not around D1, but haven't looked hard enough at when trains started to develop and when it seemed Striker/Gears were in serious danger. As far as I can tell, Mint's vote on Lahilt is completely random, while Gears is holding out some hope of survival. I would rather not kill a random inactive at this point in the game.
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It's certainly suspicious, but I also don't see why elim!Eternum wouldn't have posted while submitting actions. Drawing attention to himself like that seems like a poor strategy. Putting votes on @Eternum might make him show up. I ended up in the Garden, in case anyone still wants to know.
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    @DrakeMarshall, I haven't been spending a lot of time on this game. I haven't been around for rollover, though I guess I could try to be, so I've wanted to make sure it wouldn't be necessary to move my vote. If I'd switched off Silber C2 or gone for Xino/Lotus C3, that vote would have been permanent and splitting the vote that way does risk a hammer. The risk might not be as much as I've suggested earlier as it's unlikely the entire elim team will be around for rollover unless a hammer looks plausible, but I've been unwilling to take that risk knowing there's nothing I can do to stop an in-progress hammer and not having strong enough suspicions to avoid voting for the person with the most votes.
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So far, currently viable opinions are village TJ, somewhat less village you, Araris more likely evil than Elbereth but I should probably look into that more, leaning more elim on Magestar. Elim!Matrim probably would have defended Ventyl to some extent but maybe not to the point where he was pushed to claim after steadfastly refusing to back down despite not providing solid evidence, since elim!Matrim would want Ventyl dead.
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'll move to the Foyer. Vapor (6): DrakeMarshall, MysticLotus, StrikerEZ, Windrunner, Mist, Devotary xinoehp512 (3): Gears, TJ Shade, Vapor Lotus (1): orlok All right, so Xino had a bunch of votes and then everyone turned on Vapor. I understand one reason for Vapor, being in the same room as Araris and hearing his item claim is something to note even if I don't think Araris's item actually did anything. If village!Xino then elim?TJ isn't necessarily right, but it is something to consider whenever someone starts a vote like TJ did and doesn't have to mean elim looking for two dead villagers on subsequent days. I don't really see Xino, and I don't feel evil on Lotus, so I guess Vapor it is. More people dead, and only one of them could be blamed on the killers. Relatively petty concerns on a global scale, but the unnecessary bloodshed still brought to Beral's mind the issue foremost to most critiques of Harmony and the Pathian faith. It's all well and good for Harmony to prioritise free will and avoid imposing His standards of morality on an unwilling populace, but surely part of doing so requires being at least partially responsive to the requests of people. For a being of such power, refusing calls for aid could also be counted as imposing His will, that Harmony unilaterally decided that some people who cried out in their time of need didn't deserve to have their choices reflect reality. Of course, as every Pathian especially knows, Harmony does help, though his capacity for doing so has waned over the years. He very rarely does so in a way that doesn't require the assistance of a free willed being, even his Faceless Immortals usually interact with humans to some degree, but it couldn't hurt to pray for Harmony's aid in tracking down the slayers of Tal and Aralis. Providing a clue as to their identities shouldn't impede on anyone's ability to make their own choices.
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    In this game, not voting means we can instantly lose to the elims voting on the Secretary. We can't afford to get by on the few votes we had at the time I reminded the Lounge PM to cast votes. I voted for Silber because he had more votes than Gears or Araris and didn't want Striker to die D1 again, but I didn't tell anyone who to vote for. I wouldn't have thought Araris the type to role claim an item, but apparently he did and might have gotten killed for it. Do you think that's a more likely reason for his death? There were only I think three other people in the Study at the time, Drake, Vapor and Gears. Any of those three, did Araris claim a useful item, that had an actual mechanical effect? Araris apparently said it was ironic, which could mean just an RP item that related to his cosmetic role.
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Eternum(5): TJ, Araris, Pyro, Gears, Devotary Elbereth(1): Matrim Gears(1): Mage Xino(1): Mint This is a pretty unassailable lynch. I guess I can make it more so, just as a note. I do think Eternum is the most likely to be an elim of the surviving voters for TJ over Striker D1, but it's worth looking elsewhere as well in subsequent turns.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Elbereth(3): Matrim, Gears, Pyro Eternum(1): TJ Silberfarben(1): Mage So as far as I can tell, most of the reasoning for Elbereth and Eternum comes from them voting for TJ over Striker D1. I feel relatively okay with El's posts; definitely not like her elim QF 44 playstyle. That could just be a result of having more time to put in effort. Eternum hasn't done a lot since D1, and is somewhat similar but still different from his last elim strategy of pushing hard for trust early, then disappearing into the background. Eternum didn't offer any opinions on Striker; at the time Striker had two votes and Eternum put a fourth vote on TJ. Gears apparently isn't a candidate today. If a vote had disappeared from Striker D1 I'd be much more willing to say Gears was evil, but since that wasn't the case, even if elim!Gears knew they would survive D2 it doesn't make a lot of sense that Striker wouldn't have been given the same protection unless it's a minimally active Radiant who missed D1 but was around for D2. Not putting a high likelihood on this, or on the possibility that TJ is evil.
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    No prospect for improvement on Tal's part, then. Beral wished him luck on whatever post death adventures he might be going on. Here on Scadrial, it was time to find out who had killed him and why. Harmony provided a world where everyone could thrive, where evil should have been obsolete, and yet some people insisted on choosing to harm others for personal benefit. A necessary risk of prioritising free will of course, Harmony had known the consequences of not forcing his personal ideology on the world and rightfully accepted them, but still a shame. The killer, or Tal, Beral admitted they didn't know quite what Tal might have gotten up to in the years since university, had squandered the greatest of gifts. It was too late for Tal, but perhaps those who ended his life could end up walking a better path. I will stay in the Lounge.
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Silber(3): Drake, Gears, Devotary Striker(2): Mist, Araris Araris(1): Vapor Gears(1): TJ Hmm. I don't really want Striker to die D1 again. Araris could have posted that warning as an elim if the team had already decided not to hammer, but I'm not sure if the elims are even allowed to do that in their PM, and village!Araris is much more likely to be concerned. For TJ's vote on Gears, it's again unclear how much Kas will be cracking down on the elim PM about soliciting kill opinions, but elims devising a code in the secret PM for them to use in the room PMs is not sufficiently useful for them to prioritise having multiple elims in the same room. Also, I feel like Drake is village, though that doesn't mean Gears can't be. I don't really have anything on Gears, honestly. Only the last post has something other than RP, and Silber has been exclusively RP. Hopefully Gears will be around at some point before the cycle ends to reevaluate if necessary. I'll vote here for Lord Silberfarben, and will include RP, room vote, and potentially shift my real vote at some later time. Edit: I know you're not supposed to edit in votes, but there's enough time until rollover that I feel it's okay to actually colour my vote for Silber.
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Hmm. Gears' last post seemed pretty village, as it was a tie then and there would be no reason to take any advice from somebody who flipped elim. I guess that post could make sense if elim!Gears knew there would be a vote removal and was thus confident of survival, but it does leave the question of why the elims didn't try to save Striker D1.
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Vapor voted for the lounge first, so maybe that's why she ended up there and she'll get moved to the study. Or maybe she found a secret door or similar from the study to the lounge, which is much more exciting.
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