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Devotary of Spontaneity

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  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    "Next month then? Once the midterms are over?" Three votes counts the same as two votes for disciplinary purposes, making the odds that either Straw or Lopen get brought On The Horns still relatively high, but keeping the odds of actual non-monetary consequences fairly low. Even the worst reasonable consequence is a roleblock, which mostly just prevents elevation and wouldn't be a serious impediment to a Skindancer since there's sure to be multiple other Skindancers around to submit sabotages. University roles do benefit students more in that Skindancers start with more abilities, but the difference starts to go down once field action periods start to come into play. One elevation for everybody should be a net positive for the student team. Expulsion is a useful punishment for solid suspicions, since an expulsion on a Skindancer actively progresses the student win condition while expelling a student requires a separate sabotage/kill action on the Skindancer's part. Actually expelling someone requires a much thinner voting pool. Next turn, after a second round of elevations, that could be something worth looking into. This turn, I don't think it is.
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Vol was being addressed, who was that? Ah yes, the transfer student who had showed up in classes halfway through the first term. Nethwyl? Vol remembered thinking the girl was uninterested in learning and an unworthy student, but the impressive fire in the Fishery and her new title of E'lir showed that wasn't the case. Evidently, she had already mastered the basics of alchemy and that first month had been spent conducting practical experiments rather than sitting through lectures covering already known material. Vol had wanted to do the same, but the first month had clearly outlined the flaws of learning Alchemy from books rather than from an experienced Master. Now that the basic scientific foundations of Alchemy had been covered and lessons had progressed beyond chemistry to the workings of Alar and principles bound and unbound, it was time to resume experimentation. Perhaps this time, some collaboration would be useful. A fellow pyromaniac with the Master's trust could be a good ... ally? Was that the right word? Vol was trying to think of a better term for a few seconds before realising that Nethwyl would be expecting a response. "Oh, sorry! Vol, yes; an Alchemist, though not as good as you, E'lir. Did you need something?" (Vol does not have a gender, and goes by name only, or title should one be earned.)
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    HH is technically still a 'student', and he definitely wouldn't have gotten a candy, especially since they were placed on doors. Nobody is elevated high enough to go insane from study, but it is possible for someone at the Mews to be driven insane this turn, so we probably won't get any more obvious skindancer culpability in the writeups.
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Experience (2): Kynedath, StrikerKarnage (2): Elandera, Elkanah Sart (2): Burnt, Karnage Lord Silberfarben (2): Araris, Experience Araris (1): Lord SilberfarbenBard (1): DetessBurnt (1): SartDeTess (1): KarnageDevotary (1): DeTessElandera (1): StrawLopen (1): CodaLum (1): DevotaryRath (1): LopenRover (1): XinoWalin (1): SartXino (1): LopenZillah (1): Hael Stink(1): Burnt Straw(1): Stink That's all the nobles and commoners voted for, except for HH who is insane and Coda who was severely punished last turn. I wouldn't stay the second term unless I'd gotten everything I wanted from the University first, but I think it's worthwhile to visit Imre at least once during the course of the game. It does cost a turn's worth of EP, but you can still be elevated for EP you'd previously submitted. The second turn in Imre isn't nearly as valuable as the first, since you'll want to spend as much money as you're going to on the first turn since stipends are by term rather than by turn. Staying for the second turn is good if you really want to get those talent pipes, or you've decided to drop out with whatever elevations you've achieved and focus on the contracts/items game.
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'll sign up as Remorse.
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    That's two votes for Sart and one vote for 15 other people. Only one(Hael) of the Edema Ruh who most needs the 3 jot tuition reduction has actually voted, which makes me feel worse about casting a second vote. All of them but CadCom have been around at least a little bit to post. Everyone has to pay tuition the first term, so even if they were planning on dropping out immediately it still would have been monetarily worthwhile to vote. Even if some do immediately drop out, voting is still useful for it's intended purpose.
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Note, this definitely isn't how Alchemy works. Explosives had always been easy. Even as a novice, struggling to follow old recipes with whatever materials could be scrounged from around the house, every concoction had almost wanted to explode. Even lacking essential ingredients, or including poor substitutions, the incomplete mixtures had been primed to detonate, occasionally in an uncontrolled manner. Vol's bedroom had caught on fire several times, requiring buckets of sand and water to douse. Some creations that had been specifically designed not to explode had done so anyway. It wasn't until Vol began acquiring books on arcane and Alchemical theory that the reason for this was found. All Alchemical crafted substances required bound principles to alter the nature of the combined reagents, and an trained Alchemist could use their Alar to aid in the transformation. An unskilled Alchemist could just as easily introduce unintended changes and properties to the mixture, in Vol's case adding barely suppressed rage. The resulting, completely non-sapient, compounds carried that fury inside them, making them unstable and unable to contain their desire to explode. This realisation failed to correct the problem, but did point to possible solutions. Suppression was an obvious failure, and increasing production of explosives in an attempt to drain the source of rage was also unsuccessful. What ended up working was envisioning a specific purpose for each concoction as it was being made. Each creation wanted to be used, and predetermining each one's fate beforehand helped fit them to that purpose. Spreading out the votes helped a little, but it wasn't enough to prevent people from falling afoul of disciplinary action. I would guess people will start moving out of the Golden Pony if they haven't already, especially in favour of the Windy Tower for University focused students or the Grey Man for those dedicated to Imre. That should somewhat mitigate the decreased number of players as people are sabotaged or expelled. For this turn, I'll put a vote on Lumgol to spread things out.
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Those who have gone insane cannot post, PM, take actions, or access any of their possessions. They're essentially temporarily dead. They still do count towards win conditions , and anyone sent to the Crockery early on has a pretty high chance of eventually breaking out if this game lasts as long as the last one did. Purposefully sabotaging a skindancer would put an ally out of commission for what will probably be most of the game, but if it's going to happen it would be early. With votes on twenty one people, the odds that any one person not staying at the Golden Pony would end up On The Horns was ~14.8% or 17.9% depending on whether there are five or six players at the Pony. Say a 1/6 chance out of 15 or 16 people, so it's not unreasonable for three people to have gotten at least 5 DP. Coda getting at least 8 DP is pretty unlucky; it was unlikely that would happen to anyone.
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Back home, the arcane arts had been shunned. No individual would be willing to admit knowing the secrets of alchemy, much less sharing them to a young member of a noble family. Very few books and recipes had been available, all highly illegal, all incredibly expensive. Luckily, Vol hadn't needed to ask for the money required to procure such resources. Indulging their child's interests in Alchemy just once might have been enough to shut down that line of inquiry upon finding out firsthand how difficult the field was, but refusing ten year old Vol's request all those years ago had guaranteed a lifelong pursuit of Alchemical knowledge. At the time, the outward response had been the same smile and accepting nod of perfect obedience in response to all parental declarations, especially that as an only child, it would be necessary to marry and preserve the lineage. Up until then, Vol had assumed that this was just something people did. Looking up at two full adults treating the pursuit of knowledge as absurd and dangerous, Vol had made two private declarations. One: Nothing would prevent the uncovering of the secrets of Alchemy. Two: There would never be another member of this noble house, by blood, marriage, or title. Two years later there had been a third declaration, to renounce all given names in favour of Volatile, in honour of the first successfully created incendiary device, and to go by that name or its truncation exclusively until such time as a title signifying Alchemical knowledge could be earned. In the years that followed, Vol had never regretted any of these personal vows, and here at the University was the opportunity to fulfill the second part of the third declaration. We've got votes on 12 people now, but with an estimated three of those going away we're still looking at a ~57% chance of someone accumulating 5 DP, with Lopen having a higher chance unless he's at the Golden Pony. Young Bard, @Young Bard, don't miss out on the cycle.
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Plugging in 45 for n, 4 for k assuming a particular person got the automatic one DP for having two votes, and a p of 1/21 for the odds that player gets a Master vote gives a probability of 16.5% of receiving four or more votes. How did you get 34.35%?
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    You can change your vote. If you mark Lopen's name in green, you'll no longer be voting for him.
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Lopen(2): Lord_Silberfarben, Straw Devotary(1): DeTessElandera(1): ElkanahLumgol(1): ZillahKarnage(1): HHHH(1): KarnageGreen Rover(1): XinoAraris(1): XinoStraw(1): ElanderaCoda(1): Lopen Walin(1): Coda That's two votes for Lopen now. Straw makes a good point about it maybe not being worth getting everyone since doing so gets 15-16 people an extra DP. @Elbereth, @little wilson, how do the Master's DP work? If all 21 nobles and commoners ended up with at least one vote, would you roll a D21 for all 45 DP, or is there some other method? If it's entirely random like the situation detailed above, I think the odds of anyone ending up On The Horns is significantly lower than what Straw is saying, closer to 18.5% percent by needing to have the 1/21 chance come up at least four times out of 45. @Straw, what method are you using to calculate probability? Edit: By 'getting everyone', I mean putting two votes on everyone.
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Yes, that's why we have to spread out votes if the goal is to avoid randomly expelling anyone, and since there's enough DP to bring every noble On The Horns, the most net positive economical solution is to have votes on all the nobles and a few commoners. Since apparently the gap between one and two complaints is meaningless in terms of the Master's DP, any noble or commoner worth casting a vote on should have two votes.
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The Master Sympathist can automatically kill an unprotected Skindancer who submitted the sabotage action every cycle, assuming one can craft a mommet and use it on the same cycle. The sympathist has a decent chance of going insane, and if multiple people crack per turn they might guess wrong about which one the Skindancers targeted, but it's still a very powerful ability. Only Aturan nobles have a chance for vote reduction by staying at the Golden Pony, and only half of those nobles will actually be there. Out of the nine total nobles, I would guess two or three of them will have vote reduction abilities. This also means that nobles can't announce that they're able to take an extra vote without roleclaiming, which means we'll probably have a lower vote total than originally shown. Commoners are about as likely as nobility to be staying at the Golden Pony, with Yllish having a ~50 percent chance of staying there for a total of probably 3 commoners who can shrug off votes. Still, if the goal is to gain the three jot tuition reduction without actually bringing anyone On The Horns, nobles are better suited to take the one jot tuition increase per complaint, and since a quarter. Since the jump from one to two complaints isn't incredibly high, one extra jot of tuition increase and one guaranteed DP, it's probably better to put two votes on everyone instead of one if the goal is to spread votes around.
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Nobody would ever be able to identify the cause or the culprit of the explosion that had set the church on fire, but Vol had been blamed anyway. Not that anyone would dare accuse a noble of malfeasance, and Vol's family would take no responsibility either formally or informally, but a proclivity for alchemy had always been looked down upon, and an unnatural fire was the perfect excuse to kick a troublesome child out of the house. One month of lodgings and money sufficient to pay for a term at the University had been supplied, and a generous stipend had been set up, but that just meant 'Don't come back, unless we need you to demonstrate that the Masters have beaten you into shape'. Vol didn't care. Money would be appreciated of course, but becoming a skilled alchemist would mean finally gaining the ability to eliminate the influence of parents and family. Selling alchemical items would hopefully render a stipend unnecessary, and the first carriage that tried to bring Vol home would be bone tarred long before leaving University grounds. Even with the apparent dangers of the University, it could only be more accepting than 'home' would ever be. Soon, this place would be home. So far as I can tell, having extra votes on you matters a lot less than how many people have votes. I assume, and somebody who's played this game before can confirm, that random distribution is by vote count, so if player A has two votes and player B has one vote, player A gets one discipline point plus an average of 30 DP from the Masters for automatic expulsion, while player B gets the other 15 DP from Masters for a 65% of expulsion.
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'll sign up as Vol, an incredibly paranoid and cautious alchemist. So far, all unfortunate mishaps have only damaged other people's property.
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It technically is possible for there to be a WGG, though that would be the only reason for the elims to have a soldier. Even though the odds of Elkanah going against precedent and not starting the elims in contact with each other is not high, even the possibility of a village priest can help track down those temporarily above suspicion. I've already voted for one person who urged caution in determining whether the elims knew each other though, and I don't know if I want another lynch on the same issue.
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Noting my vote on Joe.
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    How would we figure out whether the lynch trains can be analysed? It seems like that would take at least two dead elims, one as a test case and then another who defended the first to 'prove' connectedness, while disconnectedness gets proven by an elim dying to the sacrifice or lynching someone who caused an elim's death and having them turn up evil. In the first iteration of this game, we had the GM say "Were any players (other than the eliminators) in PM contact with each other in the first two days?", which I'm interpreting as implying that the elims were PMing each other within the first two cycle despite not having a priest. In most games elims won't choose to kill each other, but it's usually technically possible.
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The elims did not have a doc the last two times this game was run, but I believe they knew who each other were. Their sacrifice votes, in QF11 at least, seemed too coordinated to be random and they defended each other early on. I think they can communicate in PMs almost as well as a doc until/unless PMs go down. We'll find out who people actually voted for, which should prevent elim hammers. I'm sure there are reasons to have a fake vote; it seems like an easy way for a player to hammer without actually needing to be around at rollover. In most cases keeping with the public vote should be fine.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'll sign up as Jehen, whose distaste for the cold is overcome only by an irrational hatred of fire.
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Well I officially don't know what's going on. Something is happening with Striker for sure, but apparently it's not going to be public knowledge. I guess I'll vote for Rath? Three cycles of failed kills should give enough of a buffer that it's fine to lynch me.
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Elkanah is definitely lying about having duplicated lenses three times as Aydee, since Windstormer's lenses and Disguiser's lenses require an action to activate. That doesn't have to mean he's evil though, as false role claims don't necessarily mean guilt. I don't know what it means to claim that the five people on his trusted list all have known roles since that's clearly not true either, unless roles means alignment or lens possession. I have not spent enough time on this game and I'm not entirely sure what's going on outside of the thread. Is there something important to know about Striker saying he scanned Tess? If this happened before she died, why didn't it come up when she was up for the lynch? If it took place cycle 3, why?
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Kynedath(1): DeTess Elkanah(1): FeruSky Striker(1): Elkanah DeTess(1): Striker Venture being a villager makes Elkanah less likely to be evil. Chances are reasonable that if Venture claimed Bastille to anyone, he would have let someone(probably CadCom) know that he had done so. Shaper and perhaps tracker could have found out the role, but the odds of targeting Venture C1 aren't terribly high. Striker was a possible Elkanah teammate, but even though one vote is hardly fatal, it happening twice makes that seem seem less likely. Striker could be evil independent of Elkanah. Wanting to remove votes from Venture was not a plan to save a teammate, but I'm not sure a 4-way tied lynch would have actually been helpful as making and breaking ties is not alignment indicative. Kynedath is more of a possibility than last cycle with Venture dead and Elkanah more likely village; a lot of the markings being not indications of evil. I haven't taken the time to look though DeTess's posts pretty much at all, but will hopefully do so before rollover.
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Venture (5): DeTess, the god king, Feruchemical Skybreaker, Rath, Devotary Kynedath (3): CadCom, Elkanah, Striker Elkanah (3): Venture, Kynedath, Zillah I don't want to vote for Elkanah, as he's probably only evil with Venture, with Striker as a lesser possibility. I see village!Kynedath does have a precedent of using exclamation points to express gratitude for fortuitous outcomes, so I'm not seeing that as a sign of potential evil anymore. For some reason, an alignment scan that requires everyone to claim feels more coercive than something like asking smokers not to use their abilities to give seekers free reign, but bringing it up as a possibility seems more village. Venture claiming villager in a post that might ring as false regardless of alignment would be a risky move for an elim to make, one that would be more successful if there were other prime targets for a Truthfinder's lens. Not voting for Elkanah at this stage. I think I'll vote for Venture at this point to see what happens.
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