Devotary of Spontaneity

I'm not sure how we're going to get a tied lynch with all the vote manipulation here. Why would you have submitted the kill if you have a role that can potentially clear people of being Bleeder? I sincerely doubt the entirety of the elim team is inactive.

If you know that Sart was roleblocked, and I don't really know why he would have been, wouldn't that make it less suspicious that there was no soothing? Did you attack Xino or Bugsy? We likely don't have two village Bartenders accounting for the attacks, but how likely is it that Bleeder actually submitted a kill? Some extortionist decided to redirect my scan to Megasif. I can't see any reason why someone would do this, as Megasif is confirmed to not be Bleeder as Bleeder!Hammond would not have been replaced.

The escorts know who they targeted(unless extortionists came into play, since escorts aren't an information gathering role and likely won't get notification that they actually blocked the person they targeted), so if an escort's target doesn't speak up that's cause for an escort to call them on it. A player claiming escort is unlikely to be Bleeder, but a renowned scan would be necessary to confirm, and it is possible for there to be a bartender/escort out there. Edit: People who were escorted C2 are less likely to be Bleeder than those escorted C1, since again, Bleeder very well might have chosen to scan someone C1.

That Stalker was me, as DeTess claimed in thread. Case 1 is actually reasonably likely, as there was a 2/29 chance of instantly losing by accidentally killing Dowser or the 5th Octant Constable. A cautious Bleeder would be willing to delay killing until her actual targets were found, which has the added benefit of not reducing the Bleeder suspect pool. Escorts will be useful later on. Announcing in thread seems unnecessary when there are people it's relatively safe to PM. Having the people who were escorted claim, as Matrim did, should work better, with a non-claim being reasonable cause for suspicion. If the escortees do claim truthfully, I don't think it's necessary for the escort to claim except to prove they aren't Bleeder. Everyone only gets one action per cycle, so I could not have stalked Elkanah if I was Bleeder and attacked Karnage. I do think it makes sense for Winsting to claim to the elims. They're a useful role, but the risk of him being accidentally hit by the elim kill is too high, and I doubt the elims would be willing to stop killing until Bleeder's dead. Wilson basically had to be an impersonator. With Elkanah presumably telling the truth about soothing Araris C1, the impersonator who moved Rae's vote had to have been someone who voted for Straw C1, and Wilson is the only living player to have done so.

We're lynching Elk because he targeted Araris C1 and Karnage C2, with the latter being Bleeder's kill target of choice. It is possible for Elk to be telling the truth about being Dowser and soothing Karnage, but I don't think it's plausible. There would be no reason for a player who's specifically a target to have implicated himself by soothing a nearly inevitable kill target.

I'll sign up as Adomert, a newcomer to the PRE interested in seeing if the new leadership would be willing to fund electrical research.

I've mostly just been going on scan results and haven't spent too much time looking at other players. I trust wilson for going after Straw C1. I think Emi's stalker claim of targeting Karnage makes her likely to be village, especially if Pyro is also a Stalker. I would be suspicious of you for giving Fura an easy way out of the scan and for suggesting we leave Pyro to the bartenders, but Fura decided not to take your offer to claim a random role and we are leaving Pyro alive until C4(though we'll probably want to use a lynch since we plausibly have only one bartender left and the elims have a decent chance of having a bodyguard who won't feel any obligation to protect Karnage assuming Elkanah dies as Bleeder today).

That's almost certainly a lie. Knowing perfectly well that a. you had been stalked once and could be stalked again, and b. Karnage was extremely likely to be attacked, there's no reason you would have framed yourself by soothing Karnage's vote. There is a reason for Bleeder to have taken that risk in an attempt to kill Flogs, so Elkanah.

You addressed Pyro's claim by saying: which suggests that his scan was accurate. Did you get rid of a vote this past cycle? I don't really see a reason for you to have done so, but there were a lot of vote manipulations anyway. Most people need bodyguard protection not to die, but if you are Flogs+tycoon and your lynch immunity meant you didn't lose your extra life, you could have survived even without protection. I can see why Striker would have chosen to kill instead of protect you, but if there are other bodyguards around they should probably guard you this cycle. Nobody bothered to tell me that renowned only get one role chosen randomly even after I claimed otherwise, but with that being the case it will be difficult to check Elkanah's dual role claim.

It's strange that there was so much vote manipulation with such a decisive lynch. Two votes removed from Straw, one vote removed from Pyro, and DeTess's vote moved from Straw to Fura, which suggests two smugglers and an impersonator, mostly on the elims' side. We also appear to have an elim extortionist who targeted Karnage. @Elkanah, I think you did suggest that you targeted Araris C1. Is there anything you'd like to say about that to anyone?

DeTess's wording did leave Fura open to make any number of false role claims that would need a scan or kill to resolve. I could see elim!DeTess trying to give Fura an easy way out, but it's unclear how much actual information could have been gotten from Fura with one PM per cycle. Especially if Fura did submit the kill, there should be an alibi established to justify targeting Araris if someone started inquiring about C1 actions. Pyro pretty much claimed that Fura did kill Araris, further implying that Elkanah was Bleeder. Both Pyro and Fura were already going to be killed, so I'm not sure this claim is particularly relevant. Fura did 'respond', saying "Or if I will respond at all ". I guess the plan is just to have no alibi at all.

@Orlok Tsubodai, a Renowned would only relay a scan of Karnage if it came up as Bleeder(Bartender to a scan, I presume a role scan would get all roles so a bartender/gambling tycoon would show up as both). Bleeder already knows whether or not Karnage is Bleeder, so she doesn't learn any new information. If the result is bodyguard or tycoon, the renowned would not share that information. Edit: I suppose both a village/elim or a Bleeder, though not Flogs, could show up as bartender/tycoon, which could complicate things. I'm less sure what the best move in that scenario would be.

Bleeder specifically does have to be alive to win. I'm not currently seeing it in the rules, but I asked Joe this when the rules for this game went up for approval. It's possible for Karnage to be bussing elim teammate Straw, but that's a level of ruthlessness that not very many elim teams would be willing to go through with. Also, bussing tends to be done by people who aren't already marked for death. Since Karnage probably won't live very long unless there are lots of bodyguards out there, it's wasteful to sacrifice Straw for a brief extension of life. If Karnage was Bleeder who used an alignment scan on Straw, then there wouldn't be any kill attempts, but a simple renowned scan would be able to tell that Karnage was lying. So we have lynching Straw today as village!Karnage wouldn't make a wild accusation and evil!Karnage would make sure to give a verifiable claim. If Karnage survives, it's probably worth a role scan. Fura and Elkanah apparently targeted Araris, and it's worth looking into that with scan/kill actions or tomorrow's lynch.

I couldn't think of the right word for this, and I definitely didn't use it correctly here, but just from the vote count we've reduced the pool of 29 possible players who could have moved Rae's vote to eight who cared about lynching Straw/saving Sart.

Flogs would appear as a bodyguard instead of a gambling tycoon to a renowned, so it might be worth doing that before another lynch. Bleeder could also scan(or kill, which is probably more likely) Karnage though, so if he is Flogs he would need to be protected. Deciding to automatically kill Tycoon!Karnage would also tip Bleeder off as to Karnage's role, but it likely wouldn't matter at that point since Bleeder again does have ways of gathering information by herself. The lynch was close at some point. Up until pretty close to the end of the cycle, especially activity wise rather than chronological, shifting Rae's vote to you from Sart could have been impactful even with the self-vote cancellation. It's always noteworthy when a vote shift happens, just because it's usually fairly easy to narrow down who the impersonator is. In this particular case, there's eight people it could have been,which is a lot but still a significant winnowing.

Dowser and the 5th Octant Constable are the main thing preventing Bleeder from randomly killing people, and having them be gambling tycoons would make it less likely for Bleeder to kill them accidentally. It is true that lynching a gambling tycoon doesn't give us a lot of information since they can be any alignment, though I would be hesitate to kill anyone who survives a lynch unless Bleeder was dead since it could easily be Flogs instead of a gambling tycoon.

A lot of this overlaps with Straw, but I don't feel like deleting things. Allowing the Edema Ruh to borrow money without collateral would be useful, but I know that I wouldn't have gone to Devi had there been a cheaper option since I only needed two talents for nahlrout. Perhaps have Devi charge interest on a scale based on how much money is borrowed, with higher rates for lower withdrawals? Maybe 1-4 talents at 30%, then having lower rates for future intervals. A guaranteed three turn roleblock bypassing nahlrout protection if the target goes into a rage helps make plum bobs less powerful, though that's meaningless for Masters. Being forced to submit all your questions at once somewhat helps weaken plum bobs. A modification where going into a rage isn't announced until after all questions are answered, but once the subject goes into a rage they're allowed to lie and/or refuse to answer questions is kind of a drastic fix. I think having The Windy Tower not being in the top two most expensive lodgings is a good way to reduce the power of Vintish nobles. Perhaps putting The Windy Tower up to 9 talents, then increasing The Golden Pony to 10 talents while upgrading its ability to subtracting a DP, or one vote if only one vote is cast? That second part might be difficult to do in a spreadsheet but -1 DP is only better than -1 vote if at least three votes are cast on someone. If Lopen and/or Experience had survived, would the Skindancers have won as the only players left in the University? Or would they have had to slaughter the inhabitants of the crockery one by one while Burnt and I tried to blow up their lodgings? Especially if Naming allows for targeting inside the University it would still take a while for the Skindancers to actually get rid of all potential threats. Perhaps the Skindancers win if a cycle ends with no current threats? Would putting the Horns first mean that all actions could be roleblocked that turn if someone ended up being lashed, and actions targeting University students would automatically fail if the submitter got expelled? Or would the DP be assigned first, and then have the effects still take place at the end of the turn? The specific questions I asked were 1.Which living, unexpelled player is most likely to be a Skindancer? 2. Did you receive a GM PM this game telling you that you were a Skindancer? 3. Excluding the person you gave as an answer to question 1, which living, unexpelled player is most likely to be a Skindancer? 4. How many living, unexpelled Skindancers are there left in this game? 5. Do any Skindancers currently have the ability to kill sane University students? Definitely far from ideal, especially as only a second level Alchemy student. I'm pretty sure village!Bard could have proved his innocence without me having to waste a question, and the GMs might have allowed Bard to get away with a non-answer for the first question like 'No one living, unexpelled player has a greater chance of being a Skindancer than every other player'.

I severely underestimated how valuable the early rounds of submitting EP would be for eventual Mastery. Going to Imre early allowed me to get a bodyguard and nahlrout, which would have been helpful had the game continued to prevent me from being dead. I'm a bit disappointed that nobody completed my three other contracts. Sympathy appeared to be an unpopular field, and nobody was brave enough to publicly support the Chandrian. I assumed nahlrout would protect me from plum bob lashings, but apparently that was not the case? I do feel like the plum bobs were a bit too strong. Starting with one confirmed Skindancer, you can force them to give up 1-5 teammates with no prior suspicions. It didn't matter in this scenario since Araris told me he had been planning on killing all the Masters anyway, but an item so quickly creatable probably shouldn't be this powerful.

It was foolish of me to ask if Bard was a Skindancer. I should have trusted that village!Bard would have been able to convey that he didn't know who the most likely Skindancer was. Plum bob rage chances are cumulative unfortunately, and I'm not a pure alchemist so the chances of getting through all the questions is very low.

Lopen is definitely not a villager. I see no way a Skindancer (Bard) could have truthfully claimed Lopen was the most likely player to be a living, unexpelled Skindancer if Lopen was a student.

I forgot that Rover was expelled. That does mean Rover wasn't the sabotage target, and since Fura apparently wasn't lying about nahlrout we've gotten things cleared up. There doesn't seem to be a positive correlation between Mastery and protection; Walin and Straw both went down in one hit. Lopen is harder to get rid of because he's a noble and can afford protection unlike his dead Skindancer teammates. Alchemists can do a decent job of getting rid of protection, but it just takes so long to do anything with Alchemy as opposed to pretty much any other field. I started making a plum bob 4.2 and just now got any actual information from it, and then I only got Lopen's name as a Skindancer because I wasted a question making sure Bard was evil and only got two questions before Bard went into a rage. When I go On The Horns for Conduct Unbecoming, it's not the Masters' fault. I did hear that Elkanah was Fae Lored 5.1, so could not have been the person who sabotaged Straw should that claim be accurate. I don't think we have any confirmable Elkanah actions from that turn since that was the turn after the supposed protection on Xino.

Two people going insane, which means at least one of them was from a field. Fura claimed a dip into Naming, which would cause an insanity chance. I don't know about Rover's field. I finally bothered to ask about Fura being elevated 4.1 and 5.1 despite being 3 turn roleblocked at the same time as the 4.1 elevation. I asked about being roleblocked and elevated as happening on the same turn in my wording, which may have been wrong, but the answer to what I asked was that it wasn't possible, which I think does mean Fura was lying about not having nahlrout. Elandera had enough EP to become a Master but didn't get it, which means one of the current Masters is in her field. I don't have a great way of knowing who that would be. Lopen survived an attack, and while the attack isn't too unexpected from certain calls to attack Masters, the survival is interesting. Horse and 4 is perhaps the most likely, though it's entirely possible Lopen did manage to snag a bodyguard early on or enlisted someone else's help for protection.

I was hoping to get responses from PMs, but I guess that's not going to happen. I feel like Burnt should have set off Linguistic Analysis-there's no way saying that 'everyone be evil' should have been counted as truthful- but for that to be true Straw would have to be evil and been targeted by the Skindancer sabotage, which would be a great sacrifice for the Skindancers to make. It would probably mean they were protecting at least one of Karnage, Burnt, and Araris. It wouldn't mean Burnt is definitely evil, especially if Straw wasn't Linguistics. I'll put votes on Burnt, Burnt anyway.

We can ask the Masters not to put DP on anyone without votes, but I don't think there's a way to tell if it was Lopen, Experience, or Karnage's fault if someone with no votes gets punished. Asking Masters to reveal their fields could be useful, though it didn't work out for Straw. Maybe tell one or two people privately. On this note, Straw claimed pure Linguistics by saying he had three Linguistic action periods as an El'the, so if anyone out there was elevated in Linguisitics on the same turn Straw was elevated, you should let us know. I still don't know about Burnt. There would definitely be lies if she was a Skindancer, but even as a villager there could be lies. Possible lies regardless of alignment in bold.

I'll sign up as LenSaar, a big fan of stories regarding the Faceless Immortals.