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Devotary of Spontaneity

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  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Elevations take place before punishment, so Lopen and Karnage became Masters in time to cancel all DP. Xino dying to his wounds I think means someone tried to protect him with Cheating Death and failed. It probably could have been Elkanah's attempt merely delaying his death, though I'm not entirely sure how Cheating Death applies to a combined sabotage/kill.
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Only three people have votes, so there's a decent chance of expulsion for each of them. I think we can afford one turn for Straw/Karnage situation to resolve itself, though expulsion isn't necessarily a bad outcome. Earlier in the game I didn't think Lopen was evil, but I didn't have any strong reasons for or against. I don't have any strong opinions on Green Rover. I can put two votes on Lopen, Lopen.
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    We probably do need to see how this cycle plays out before making a judgment on this. Karnage certainly doesn't seem worried by Straw's lie detection abilities, but there are reasons for that beyond shared alignment. We could have easily have village!Karn with elim!Straw, or elim!Karn prepared to hit village!Straw with a roleblock/redirect/sabotage/kill. We won't know until the next turn. Presumably, an elim mentioning they had uncertainty about a player's alignment, or expressing incorrect certainty, would register as a lie to linguistic analysis. I got confirmation that obvious misinformation would register as a lie, while self-deprecation could show up as being truthful. Straw retracted his vote on Karnage, and Rover's vote on Straw doesn't do anything since Masters can't receive DP.
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    After retracting from Fura, Kynedath and I were the only other options without spreading the vote out. Clearly, Elandera does/did have suspicion of Fura, but I guess wanted to narrow the vote spread. Her votes failed to accomplish that as Karnage never retracted from Fura. I don't know if Elandera was around for the rest of the cycle/how much she expected Karnage to come back. Presumably whoever complained to Karnage about Fura fishing for information in PMs (which is I think what's happened?) knows who they are and can clear this up fairly easily. Confirm with someone, not even Fura necessarily but I don't see a great reason otherwise, that they were suspicious of Fura's inquiries and told Karnage about it. Fura can't have PM'd that many people, so the information leak is negligible.
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    There wasn't an incredibly strong link between Hael and CadCom that I can remember. CadCom expressed mild, nondescript suspicion on him, then placed a single vote 3.1(I think) which was quickly removed. What else was there to make a Hael-CadCom team implausible? Elkanah suggests that Xino went insane as a result of random 10% chance from constructing a gram, which would explain why Xino had a gram to prevent the first sabotage. I do think it's interesting that Straw says Burnt wasn't lying when she put herself at a 100% suspicion. Obviously not intended to be taken as truthful, but it seems like it should have counted as a lie for a villager? I don't know if a Skindancer could have claimed about Hael, The main reason for Burnt being a villager for telling the truth is the statement since a Skindancer definitely would have a clue. I guess saying that suspicions were based on immediate gut feelings could explain inaccurate suspicion ratings, the GMs only count lies as intentional attempts to deceive not just knowingly false information, or Straw is just lying. Araris's main 4.2 claim is that he was reading Hael slightly more village, which wouldn't make sense for a Skindancer if true.
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The point of the first paragraph was that CadCom could have voted in self-preservation, especially if he was evil, regardless of whether Kynedath was evil. The second part was that should CadCom be evil, it's less likely that you are. Hmm. I don't think Fura+Kynedath is a hit, but we do need expulsions and I will admit to not being super sure about Elandera. Being expelled isn't completely disastrous for me right now with two elevations. I can retract from Elandera, Elandera. I don't really want to vote for someone else though. Fura (2) - Karnage, KarnageKynedath (3/5?) - , Araris, Araris, StrawDevotary (5/7?) - Hael, Hael, Elandera, Elandera, Lopen, Lopen, ExperienceElandera (1) - Experience
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Any Re'lar or higher with any elevations in Alchemy can craft plum bobs, they're just more effective with multiple Alchemy elevations. Since Kynedath is an Edema Ruh and hasn't been getting obvious tuition reductions, it's likely he has fewer than six talents to qualify for the 10% kill chance on the streets unless he actively dropped out of University beforehand. Kynedath was up for the lynch 3.2, and nobody appeared to care enough to stop that lynch. Once Kynedath became a candidate, the pool of lynchees only increased with Xino's retracted votes on Stink and CadCom's split vote. It's possible for CadCom and Kynedath to be evil together, but self-preservation alone could explain CadCom's votes without the need to be protecting someone else. Other than that, the Skindancers, including Walin(though Walin didn't post until there were six candidates), saw no obvious need to intervene. I don't particularly think that Fura is evil. I'm not entirely sure why I believe that, although partly it's because I'm still suspicious of CadCom, who put Fura up for the lynch 3.2 which resulted in Fura being "roleblocked" (again, anyone who's been to Imre can easily have roleblock immunity, but Fura did claim to be roleblocked and wasn't elevated this turn despite presumably having lots of EP, so it's entirely possible the roleblock is real). Four people is perhaps too many for the lynch, but I think I'll put votes on Elandera, Elandera, switching as necessary to narrow the field. Three people is a good number I think, though two might be better since three people makes expulsion far from guaranteed.
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Not anything this game. LGs 54 and 55 are what I'm thinking of just from memory, since you don't usually ask me for role/item information, but I feel like I remember that being a significant part of your playstyle in games with PMs. You can't ask who the other Skindancers are, but I think that's because it counts as multiple questions and not because asking for alignment information is disallowed.
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So someone could have been elevated in Walin's field, but there was one field that didn't have any non-El'the with EP in it. Not sure how helpful that information is since we don't know the other eight fields people were elevated in and it's not worthwhile to ask everyone to share. Plum bobs can be used to ask single, simple questions up to five times. Presumably, one could ask "Is your character a Skindancer?" and would receive a truthful answer in response, proving the alignment of your target. (I could see the GMs letting a Skindancer claim they weren't a Skindancer to a question of "Are you a Skindancer?" on the basis that technically, none of the actual people playing this game are Skindancers, but at some point this gets silly.) Follow up questions like "Is [Character X] a skindancer?" would probably be acceptable, if dependent on targeting a Skindancer originally. Something like "Which living player character in this game other than yourself is most likely to be a Skindancer?" is quite possibly too complex, but at least it's a single question unlike the "Who are the other Skindancers?" example. Fura likes to fish for information in PMs regardless of alignment to my recollection, though without knowing the context of your PM it's hard to tell how suspicious his requests were. I don't see Xino being evil unless Bard is village, and I don't know why elim!Xino would be so determined to frame village!Bard if the lies would be uncovered as soon as Bard died. No obvious 3.1 claims jump out at me as things village!Bard was lying about, especially after saying he would be willing to have Linguistics Analysis scan him again. Spending a sabotage attacking an elim!Xino also seems unnecessary given that he was generally considered village already.
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Zillah apparently didn't submit housing orders, but apparently could have come back and gotten off the streets if not for getting unlucky with a 10% chance of death. Walin neglected to elevate anyone. Since there's a one talent tuition increase and failing to elevate someone is, at least in the short term, more suspicious than choosing to elevate someone and later being found to be evil. A known Skindancer elevating someone gives a decent chance that one of the elevatees is evil, but failing to elevate suggests what plausibly happened; that no other Skindancers invested in Walin's field. There's risk for a student Master to elevate someone, but in most cases there should be someone worth taking a risk on. Three people being expelled is partly because kills come before assigning DP, leaving only three people eligible for DP, but could also be Walin dumping 5 DP on one of the three other players. The odds of any of them being expelled if Walin put his DP on Zillah are low 40s ignoring DP soakage so it's possible to have happened naturally to all three, but it's likely that at least one expelled player was a student that Walin decided to target.
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Vol had been charged with Undignified Mischief again, just when it seemed like the Masters had finally seen the value of Alchemy. It seems Nethwyl's expulsion had had some personal positive effects after all. Upon gaining access to the E'lir laboratory, Vol had immediately whipped up a celebratory explosive concoction, setting it off far away from the University grounds. Evidently not far enough, for one of the students had complained. The Alchemy Master saw nothing wrong with the display, but the others apparently thought it showed poor decorum. None of them particularly cared; none of them should care with Skindancers still on the loose, and yet it was back in front of an apathetic crowd apologising for a triviality. "Yes, it might have been a mistake to set off a noisemaker where someone could possibly hear it (Someone being concerned with loud noises when the real threat came silently was perhaps not strictly logical, but to each their own). In the future, all such work will be constrained to the Alchemical laboratories (A blatant lie, no self-respecting student would be willing to restrict themselves so). No explosives will be detonated in a location without supervision (If anything, even more obviously false than the last sentence, but it was what the Masters wanted to hear. Perhaps the new Master, Lin Wa, would be more understanding, or at least more rational. So nahlrout does passively protect someone from lashings, and one ounce completely protects from both the one turn and the three turn roleblock. Xino's chart seems to be within several rounding errors of accurate, though presumably 8, 9, and 10 DP weren't supposed to have the same chances in the second chart. I'm willing to let CadCom go this time, since his expulsion chances aren't high and if he bought one nahlrout he easily could have bought two. I can look at him again next cycle, especially if he gets elevated. Zillah, Zillah, I guess.
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Even an Edema Ruh can afford to spend a single talent on nahlrout, especially by forgoing the University for a term. I now realise I'm not quite sure how self-applied nahlrout works, but it's entirely possible CadCom and/or Fura are not roleblocked. CadCom voting in self-preservation is suspicious because everyone else up for the lynch who actually voted was perfectly willing to risk expulsion by not expanding the field of candidates. A second roleblock on CadCom is largely useless, but I would vote for him if expulsion seemed likely. Any kill roles floating around could help with that, though Bard would probably be the primary target. I see Zillah is being targeted for being a low-content El'the. I suppose we have no way of knowing whether or not Zillah ended up on the streets, and even then there's only a 25% chance of death per turn. With five people currently up for the lynch, I don't know how likely Zillah will be expelled. I've probably been calculating expulsion rates incorrectly, adding chance of 11+ votes *.1 + %13+ *.3 + %15+ *.65 etc. instead of %11-12 *.1 + %13-14 *.3 etc. This lynch is also less random since Walin can put 5 DP on whoever he wants in addition to the one DP from his votes. I'll come back with a public apology and a pair of votes before rollover.
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    A full nine people were elevated in addition to Walin, so one of them must have been in the same field Walin became a Master of.
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    You might have conflated Fae Lore and Omen Recognition. Omen recognition could possibly be used to determine whether a Skindancer did an RP action that appeared in the writeup, but I don't think it would work for actions whose results didn't make it into the writeup. Fae Lore is a passive ability that increases the power of your actual actions. If you had say Fae Lore and School Records, targeting a Skindancer with School Records would roleblock them in addition to finding out their elevations.
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Kynedath(6): Lopen{2}, Lopen{3}, Hael{1}, Hael{2}, Karnage{1}, Karnage{2}, Straw{1} CadCom(4): Fura{3}, Fura{4}, Devotary{1}, Devotary{2}Devotary(2): Araris{1}, Araris{2} STINK(2): Xino{1}, Xino{2} Fura(1): CadCom{1} Xinoehp(1): CadCom{2} There was only a ~40% chance that Bard would be expelled last turn, not counting the possibility for EP to reduce DP, the possibility for Bard to be at the Golden Pony, and the chance for others to be at the Golden Pony. The actual probability is incalculable, but probably lower than 40 as Burnt and Xino were the only ones who could have altered Bard's fortunes by staying at the Golden Pony and Bard probably had a couple spare EP lying around in various fields even after three elevations. Six people up for the lynch makes it unlikely anyone will be expelled. @xinoehp512 could fix this, at the cost of letting Stink go free.
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Nobody has voted four times yet, and the other two R&L powers read like they target a single complaint rather than a single player. Putting multiple votes on someone should be enough to put them up for punishment consideration, though Persuasive Arguments could make it less likely that any particular player is severely punished. I guess we'll know whether that happened if someone who didn't get any votes goes On The Horns. I'll put two votes on CadCom, CadCom, in case you're right about the limited votes meaning the elims aren't worried about one of their own being expelled. I guess it could be you trying to protect a teammate, but that would mostly make sense if you were on a team with Elandera and be fairly unhelpful otherwise, especially as you are up for expulsion/severe roleblock. Kynedath(6): Lopen{2}, Lopen{3}, Hael{1}, Hael{2}, Karnage{1}, Karnage{2} CadCom(4): Fura{3}, Fura{4}, Devotary{1}, Devotary{2}Fura(2): Lopen{1}, Straw{1}, Straw{2}Devotary(2): Araris{1}, Araris{2}
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    It would be more suspicious for someone to change an even number of votes to an odd number than vice versa, but I do see your point that it would have been better to put on the second vote just in case. I'll be double voting this cycle, for quite possibly the last time before being expelled. Neither noble skindancers nor noble students are particularly effective, since they can only target other expelled students or people in Imre. The first isn't a concern now but will become one later, while the other is pure luck. I think I would vote on Elandera over Fura, mostly based on vote patterns and her spreading out votes. @Elandera, are you in favour of targeted expulsion knowing that expelled students can only stay in Imre once without staying at the Grey Man? If Bard is evil, especially if there's an elim Physiker, CadCom advocating for a role block instead of an expulsion is more suspicious. That seems like something for a future turn, except possibly enough people drop out of lynch contention to make adding another player worthwhile. I don't currently have an opinion on Kynedath, but I'll see what I can find.
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Only every second vote counts, so there was little reason to put a thirteenth vote on. I was assuming Bard was staying at the Windy tower to be so fortunate in being elevated. I suppose it is possible he was spending the extra money for the Golden Pony, but that didn't seem likely as the cost/benefit of that lodging is low. Adding a second vote might have been worthwhile anyway, since it wouldn't have hurt. The people who didn't vote are Green Rover, Burnt, Zillah, Experience, and Walin. Of those, only Burnt and Walin definitely saw the votes on Bard.
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    If Bard put any EP in R&L it would definitely not be a lie for Nethwyl to have taken an exam in the subject. If he didn't put any EP in, it would be GM discretion I think, since he never claimed to have put in EP. I don't think I would say precludes the possibility of there being more unsuspicious people, but I could see why it might have been marked as a lie. Expulsion barely hurts village!Bard, since he's already an El'the and it would take at least five turns to become a Master, assuming he's staying at the Windy Tower. Abilities will be less useful, but that's the case for role blocks as well.The elims are unlikely to sabotage village!Bard at this point in the hopes that he gets killed by a student. Expelling Skindancer!Bard contributes to the win condition, but leaves him free to do things. A role block followed by a kill could be helpful, though with five DP currently there's still a good chance for no charges/apology. One more vote on Bard makes it very likely to get into at least the 8-10 DP range.
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Dropping out, removing Remorse from the player list.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Linguistic analysis covers all the posts made in a turn, and any PMs. Do you have or intercept any PMs with Bard in turn 2.2? Could be a lie if Bard specifically told the GMs whether or not Nethwyl set the fires, which was presumably not the case. Other than the unlikely lies of not realising it was May, and claiming copper chloride turns flames blue when it's specifically copper(I) chloride that does so, other potential lies would be the reads list. Lying about reads and/or an opinion on spreading out votes is almost as suspicious as lying about being surprised with the sabotage target though.
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Self-sabotage seems unlikely with only one rank in Physiking since that has a 25% chance of failure, but there were five other Re'lar's at the time who could have had two ranks in cheating death. Bodyguard/gram/bloodless would also be possible, if wasteful. For those who lack great arcane power, incredible amounts of money coupled with minimal self-preservation, or astounding luck, expulsion is the best way to actually harm the Skindancers. We still need the aid of people who possess one of the above three traits to gain solid information about alignment though. If you're actually suspicious of Lopen, it's worth putting a double vote on him. Doing so would further spread out the votes, but there's enough time to condense them. @Furamirionind from last turn, I considered voting on Elandera as one of the higher suspicions among the five people committed to spreading out votes, but decided it was more important to consolidate votes on one person. I might vote for her this turn, but I haven't committed yet. She doesn't have any votes though, and the vote tally is already spread pretty thin, which makes her a less suitable lynch target. I'll have to see if anyone already up for the lynch would be a better choice.
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Thirteen people have votes on them now, but that's few enough that Lopen and Bard still have a >2/3 chance of being punished if they aren't staying at the Golden Pony. I see Elandera, Xino, Lopen, Karnage, and Straw all show interest in spreading the vote out. I've generally had a good feeling about Xino, and I appreciate the effort Lopen is putting in. I don't really know what evil!Straw looks like since I can only remember him being evil as a lone SK, but village!Straw would be making these charts and graphs. I know very little about Karnage. Elandera's motivations I think relate to her worry about expulsion, but the main threat of that is it makes students easier to kill. Skindancers gaining more influence over University fields is a problem, but destroying all nine fields is improbable with how slow EP gain is for El'the. Putting out contracts to kill people could be useful, but the people who can afford assassins don't need contracts, and the only other ways to kill at this point are Naming and a lucky guess with Rhetorics or Sympathy. Nobody's going to be expelled this turn at this rate, but I can push the probability up just a bit. Bard, Bard, I suppose, as it's a better target than Lopen. Bard(6): Xino, Kynedath, Fura, Fura, Devotary, DevotaryLopen(4): DeTess, Striker, CadCom, Bard Walin(2): Karnage, Experience Striker(2): Straw, CadComStraw(1): StrikerDevotary(1): LopenGreen Rover(1): LopenRathmaskal(1): Elkanah,Elandera(1): KarnageExperience(1): Xino Zilla(1): Straw Coda(1): Elandera Karnage(1): Elandera
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Lopen(4): DeTess, Striker, CadCom, Bard Walin(2): Karnage, Experience Straw(2): Striker, CadComDevotary(1): LopenGreen Rover(1): LopenRathmaskal(1): Elkanah,Elandera(1): KarnageBard(1): XinoExperience(1): XinoHaelbarde (1): StrawCoda (1): Straw The vote count hasn't changed a lot since Straw's last list, but we have gotten some piling up of votes, now including 2 DP for Lopen and one each for Walin and Straw. Those votes seem to be an attempt to make sure that someone is more severely punished, and just picking someone who already had a chance of being punished. The original vote on Lopen was for not producing enough content, which he has now done, to at least have a record of opinions. Both votes on Straw are partially based on misreading his posts, as Straw was not trying to prevent people from spreading out votes. I don't really know who I want to put vote(s) on though.
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Apparently, at least one of the Masters didn't appreciate some harmless loud noises. Vol would be inclined to ignore the complaints, but the Master Alchemist also wasn't pleased, refusing to acknowledge all the hard work Vol had put in over the course of the first term. It would be impossible to progress in the University so long as the people in charge held petty grudges, and so it was time to apologise. At least the capriciousness of the Masters meant they would soon forget about the incident, even if the bursar wouldn't. Vol stood in the main lecture hall, pointedly not making eye contact with any member of the student body. Most of these people were strangers, figures Vol hadn't seen since Shard had stood at this very lectern to apologise for his amusing misdeeds. There was a piece of paper on the lectern outlining what Vol was supposed to say, but it wouldn't be necessary. Long years of practice had developed apology giving into a skill. "It was wrong to set off firecrackers in the exam halls. Accidental or not -those firecrackers weren't supposed to go off until after the exams were over- all students have to take responsibility for their actions, and this one caused widespread disruption and ruined the exams of some of you. For that, an apology is due. Such an occurrence will not happen again.Those of you who were negatively affected will be eligible for an exam retake. Thank you. I'm not great at coming up with player suspicions in such a crowded field of players. I'm assuming the targeting of nobles is an effort to get rid of them before they go to Imre and purchase bloodless/grams/bodyguards, and that it will 'conveniently' stop before narrowing the field of nobles too far. That's not really useful for determining culpability. Looking back at LG33, it seemed like people were significantly more bloodthirsty and/or didn't realise how the lynch worked. There didn't appear to be a strong correlation between alignment and willingness to inflict serious punishment on people though, with students advocating both for spreading out votes and condensing them, and Skindancers suggesting both a mass roleblock and targeted expulsions. That's not really helpful either. On somewhat of a meta note, I'd guess that anyone who was an RP partner with a Skindancer would have a slightly lower chance of being sabotaged, which would mean Karnage and Kynedath for Sart and Experience for Lumgol.
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