Archer

Granted, a blocky leg made of wind kicks you in the face. I wish for all cars to go weeeee when driven.

Evan straightened his back, tilting his head up despite the morning drizzle. His coat still felt big on him. When he shoved his hands into the pockets, he could barely reach the chalk dust that had collected in the bottoms. It was all he had left after several days of fighting. He shoved open the door to the barracks and walked in on the court martial already in session. “We’ve been getting pummeled over on the North Side.” He coughed, trying to make his voice sound deeper. “I don’t know if he’s turned traitor, but Lan has been hanging back a little too much for my liking. Eh, boys? I mean men. I vote Lan!” Flyingbooks I'm still waiting on the answers to some GM PM questions about how certain things work. (Can someone explain maps to me?) My current plan is to take a bribe today. @thief you are welcome to take it off my hands to help with your win-con. If you can take things in the same round they are picked up, rob me today, then you can take something from the supply in the night. If you can't, you now know where it will be, in case all of the elims take one in the night. You can rob me in the night, or take from the supply in the night and pick this up tomorrow. I have no plans to use the item. I will inform the camp when I have been successfully robbed. I wouldn't mind distributing the acid today, so we know who has it. It can only be used for defense, and I'd rather the elims didn't get the chance to take and sit on it.

I said my initial thoughts in the dead doc, and others have analyzed the game better than I could already, so I'll just respond to this comment. In this game I hooked up with Ruin and Valor through the Shadesmar and spent two days or so pretty much just talking to them making a plan to lure Odium into trying to kill Ruin while Valor was protecting them. (Odium, why didn't you take a shot at Dingo, it would have been so good...) I also ended up talking to NuPru, but beyond that, my PM game was pretty shallow. What I had done however was PM everyone on Shadesmar D2 when I was there, which created the impression that I was a PM Spider. At the time I was fishing for notes, opinions, thoughts, whatever I could analyze. What my PMs got me throughout the game ended up being either role claims or nothing of substance. Anyway, back to D2, Mouse/Kas and I had this PM conversation: At the time I took the emotional response as an indicator of OC alignment, and was pleased I'd gotten a solid lead that I proceeded to tunnel until everyone doing reads said that Mouse is village. Kas, I should have apologized earlier for making you upset, but I'll do it now. In hindsight, my comments were based on an incomplete understanding of how PMs are supposed to be used, how neutral factions interact in the game with others, and how you got your information. (You made some very good reads and breakdowns in the game... too good to be unaided by an elim doc or bluffs, I thought). I apologize. I did not mean to be condescending or abrasive to your playstyle. I also apologize more generally for saying people were being careless. Thanks to the GMs. You did good.

I am awarding Quinn the Honorary Canadian award for saying sorry to no less than five people in the elim doc, two of which who weren't even in it. Breaker, that was a fabulous gambit. Don't do it again. Good game, all. TJ, you're insane. Thank you.

Guys, I've figured it out. The title of this cycle, I Am Weary, Let Me Rest is an ANAGRAM for Lawyer, Melt me Tears. I think TJ is trying to send us a secret message that we should vote for the person whose name means melted tears: Condensation! (If someone switches off of me, the vote manips can engineer a tie between myself and Connie to hedge the group's bets. Just putting it out there.)

Process of elimination and not being attacked are the big ones. If I had something, I'd have said it. I could point out that the only elim you've voted for was Lotus the second time, or note your vote-giving away, but really, I don't have much else. You have too many posts to review them all tonight. If you're village, sorry. Speaking of Gears, you decide if the exe goes through, so I look forward to your take. If there's no chance of getting Breaker, I'd rather tie with Connie. My vote remains on them. To those who think I'm an elim, if your pick for my partner is Connie, a tie would work there too. Devotary and James would have to coordinate to make that happen. I'm not trying to live another day by setting up a tie then making a vote on me drop at last minute, that would result in my immediate execution the next day, I merely want to actually hit an elim this round and am in a poor position to do it.

I'll sign up as Evan Wallace, a recent transfer who says he's an adult, but he looks pretty young... He also carries an old, creased photo of a man in a Rithmatist coat and keeps checking it whenever he meets someone here.

I'd rather go down with Breaker than go down a lone villager. And if the exe doesn't happen, at least threatening to do it will probably prevent a night kill on village!Breaker. Let's assume if I die and flip Elim, y'all have the votes to find the last elim and win. If I flip village, who are you going to look at next? If James and Devotary are cleared, that leaves Gears, Breaker, Order, Matrim, and Connie. If you think Breaker is the other elim, you'll need to convince Gears to let them die or hit them twice beat the Warder protection.

I think you misunderstand. I made a poor argument. The exe is based on my making a bad argument, in the eyes of the group. (Specifically, what's being framed as 'weaving a bad narrative' is how I think through things. I've just suggested the wrong possibilities too many times to pass muster.) Reads list! (Yes, it's sparse): Matrim: The wasted night kill looks like WGG. Otherwise, they've seemed pretty village. They've kept up appearances in our PM even today. Gears: Could be an elim feeding the targets of Breaker to the doc. Went hard after Dannex, but timed it to protect Devotary. I've been reading them as village. Breaker: They should be dead by now. They are able to spot night kills, and haven't been scanning themselves, so the elims should have at least taken a shot. If they're unprotected that night, they kill him. If they're protected, they take a life off Gears. They wasted a kill on Matrim, so why not unless Gears is an elim too. Order: Neutral impression of their posts. I can't remember many. I don't think the Warder of the only v!Grey would be elim, but if there's two v!Greys, it could happen. James: Has been helpful, but not infallible. If Matrim flips elim, they're village, given what they said about them last round. Otherwise they seem villagey, if you don't look at roles. Devotary: I stand by my earlier elimy read of them. Their contributions up until that post were lowkey, then they've picked up recently. They caused Dannex to die by defending them the way they did. That's suspicious, but I'm not sure how village and elim them would behave differently. Condensation: Pretty neutral read of them, which is probably related to level of activity. I have the least reason to trust they're village, so they're my current target. So my list from most elimy to least would go Connie, Breaker, James, Devotary, Gears, Matrim, Order. EDIT: Also, for the record @Matrim's Dice has permission not to protect me if the village decides to exe me.

Cool. It hadn't happened in any game I'd scanned, so that is the point of confusion. My gut still says that there's an Elim Grey, but to avoid wasting an exe on me for what is widely viewed as a poor argument, I'll retract my vote on James. That leaves me leaning towards Connie then I guess. I'm not as enthusiastic it about it, but everyone else is cleared in my eyes, besides maybe Breaker for their role. Connie.

Good question. My best guess is because you are an elim and they want to keep you alive because you're largely trusted. My second best guess is that the two Greys both seemed less dangerous than Orlok (fear kill). My third best guess is they're RNGing these kills and I will scream if that's the answer.

And furthermore, TJ made the tag 'well not exactly parody', which is clearly a hint about parity! The result of a Red/Red/White/Warder/Warder is the elims would know themselves and those they're bonded to (9 people, if I'm remembering right that Quinn was unbonded, otherwise ten), so it would take a maximum of five rounds to scan everyone, assuming no role reveals or insights from the White. At which point they'd definitely know who all the Warders - and be completely blind about all the other roles. Which is interesting, because my proposal of Red/White/Grey/Warder/Warder also leaves them unable to determine Ajah colours. Hm. If you suggest two village Greys, they'd be quite hard to hit without a Blue, but then, the role just trolls the village in that scenario. Where I'm coming from is I can't think of a single game ever on this site with multiple vote manipulators who are all village. (Perhaps someone who knows the local lore better can think of an example?) I have been consistently wrong about setup speculation. Everyone having a role threw me off for a bit, then I've been trying to figure out how to balance the Green. In a two v!Grey scenario, the exe is hard to predict/manipulate and the Green is an unpredictable kill. That's stacked against the elim team. My previous reasoning relied heavily on Dannex being an elim because the vote manipulation pointed to that. My thinking has changed. Why didn't they kill a Grey last night? James had a 50% chance of being protected, so that could be why they went for an easier target. But they've been willing to hit a Warder before (Matrim), which is a guaranteed waste. Devotary is a known unbonded with a powerful role. I propose they didn't hit a Grey because doing so would lead the village to think the remaining Grey is likely an elim. You're implying my talking this through will help them make better picks, but since everyone's role is known, they have enough to pick good targets without me thinking out loud. I don't recall advocating for Burnt exe. I think I've said there was likely an elim brown, but I actually voted Devotary in the round Burnt was up for exe. My voting record is e!Striker, v!Dannex, v!Dannex, none, ?!Devotary, v!Dannex. James' is e!Lotus (survived), v!Ashbringer, v!Archer, e!Lotus, v!Burnt, ?!Order (survived). Our differences in approaches haven't yielded much different results in terms of number of elims killed. Edit: Ninja'd by some posts. My main reservation is then what's the point of a vote manipulator role???

The way Devotary protected Dannex throughout this game was suspicious. It threw Gears and I off for several days. However, given that Dannex has now flipped Village, it would have made more sense for elim!Devotary to protect Elims up for exe, including Quinn (who they voted for C3). I believe the elims have a vote manipulator, so that leaves James. I’ll justify my decision using the end of C3 vote results. Elim!James joined the CW on me when Quinn was up for exe. They could have forced a tie with Dannex-Quinn by adding a Grey vote onto Dannex, but they were smart enough not to, knowing that the other Grey had consistently protected them. Matrim never switched off, which makes them seem villagey to me, because the other three votes on Quinn seem to have been villagers. (Future me here: rereading this, you could also conclude that this is proof both Greys are innocent, but if you think that, make me a balanced elim team without using the Greys. And if James really thought I was an elim, why not add a vote to me to put his money where his mouth is?). Quinn0928 (4) : Matrim's Dice, Illwei, Dannex, Devotary of Spontaneity Dannex (2) : Gears, Breaker, Archer Archer (2): Lotus, James Brafin I expect Devotary to be night killed soon (being the most powerful person left besides Breaker, who can spot night kills), so let’s get all the vote manipulation off the table by hitting James. Since Orlok was not an elim!yellow, I struggle to balance things without an elim!Grey. We know that we have: Red (Quinn)+Lotus (Warder)+Striker (White) VS Blue (Ashbringer)+Green (Liranil)+Yellow (Shard)+Brown (Burnt)+Brown (Dannex)+White (Illwei)+Red (Flying)+White (Orlok)+Red (Archer) AKA Red+Outbonded Warder+White+XXX+XXX? VS Green+Yellow+Blue+Brown+Brown+White+White+Red+Red+5 Grey (Devotary) Grey (James) Blue (Breaker) Blue’s Warder (Gears) Red’s Warder (Matrim) Grey’s Warder (Order) (White’s?) Warder (Connie) Looks to me like the two village reds and whites were to conceal the elim reds and whites, by the way. So I'm clearing myself because two reds on the elim team makes little sense. Elim!Grey warder on village!Grey doesn’t make sense because they’d be quickly killed. So I’m mentally clearing Order for now. The reverse is however possible. I could apply the same logic to the Blue, but the village did have two of them, so maybe one was expendable. The village needed at least one Blue, but we didn’t need two. So Breaker is my backup choice, but I’d prefer to keep them alive for now because the value of maybe picking up a night kill is higher than maybe hitting an elim. I don’t like the look of a Red+White+Warder+Warder+Warder team. Sure, they have extra lives, but they are weak on offensive ability. And then what good is having a Red? You’d know three of the five warders already. For that reason alone, I think there’s a maximum of one living Warder on the elim team. If it's not Matrim or Order, it's Connie or Gears. My money's on Connie, and I'd join a wagon on them if the opportunity arose. I absolutely understand Gears’ crusade against Dannex. I was thinking along similar lines. Dannex, you were right about the lack of vanillas and you were playing honest the whole game through, I apologize for not believing you. For future reference, my scans are useless with all the roles known, so now I’m just double-checking people’s claims. If I find anything damming, I’ll let the group know.

I think there's a possibility that the elims (Devo/Matrim or Devo/Orlok) are just trolling Dannex. However, a Dannex/Devo Elim team is my most likely scenario, so if you have the votes, I'm happy to go Danex Devotary.

Brick began researching how cost-effective group funerals were. Someone need to bury all these bodies, they were starting to stink. Hey, I know we're all frustrated because we should have won by now. But we still have a comfortable lead, so there's no need to give up hope yet. So long as the Greys remain alive, they will continue to add an element of unpredictability to our votes. I believe the elim team has one Grey on it. Both of them appear to be fans of Dannex. With that kind of firepower protecting Dannex, an exe on them will not go through. Instead, as has been previously suggested, I propose we force a tie this round on the two Greys. Three non-Greys should vote on each of them, and the Greys should vote for each other. The Greys should also move one of the remaining null votes each onto each other. To ensure the tie remains intact, anyone who moves their vote within an hour of rollover should be warned that it’s HIGHLY suspicious. If, like me, you believe one of them is an elim, you should want the guaranteed elim-kill, even at the price of a villager. If you believe they are both innocent, you should recognize the reality that the uncertainty they cause hurts more than their vote movement helps. Thoughts? If we can make this work, I'll kick things off with a Devotary vote.

why can't you let me enjoy my confirmation bias in peace? Devotary seems like an Elim. That's why I'm voting for them. Something is up with Dannex's situation and I don't know why they let Quinn die instead. Maybe they're an Elim. Maybe the elims are in dissaray and their vote manip isn't on at the right times to stop these things. Maybe the Elim plan is just to make Dannex lose at all costs. I'm not sure, but I like my pick. Why'd they hit known Warder Matrim? The elims aren't playing perfectly. I like your level of reasoning, but as I've done throughout, I'm sticking with the simplest explanations this game. I'd like to hit Devotary, then Orlok, assuming they're a Yellow. Speaking of yellows, maybe the elims thought Yellow Ajahs could protect from village votes, which they can't.

Vote manipulator roles are much more useful for the elims than for the village. The standard setup for them in one to each team. Having to justify your choices to a Warder makes the role less powerful, so it makes sense to me that the unbonded Grey is the elim. (You're Warderless, right Devotary?) However, that is all meta speculation. To be fair to Devotary, let’s take a look at their posts and see if there’s a case to be made against them. They’ve made 16 posts, so I’m going to continue this under a spoiler tag: As expected, there’s no smoking gun. What struck me most is how unremarkable they’ve been. These are low profile posts with pretty unobjectionable content. Nothing they’ve said makes me think they’re working hard to come up with fresh ideas or solve the game. (If you end up being village, I apologize). My general read is that they’re an elim playing it safe by largely agreeing with consensus views. Coupled with the meta-role analysis, I feel comfortable voting Devotary. I think we should just try to exe them this cycle, rather than try to make a tie scheme work. We're far from exelo.

Brick cleared his throat, the bland taste of bark still tickling his mouth. “I was silent last round, on account of indigestion. I’m now back to help town, and I have a suggestion. We’ve discussed distribution of roles every day. And come to the conclusion the elims have a Grey. Burnt says they know one and may share their name. So it would be fun if both Greys then now claim. In the case of one reveal, the other will look sus. But if both take the deal, we can debate who to trust. The other to seek out is that Ajah of Yellow. If the elims are without, they’d fear the Green fellow. Myself, I’m on the A-team, with a role coloured Red. My Warder Matrim is the reason I’m not dead. I have checked Gears and Connie are who they say. While Orlok appears non-brawny, per scan today. Since Lotus was with Brown, Dannex sus is shrinking. Rocking boats is how to drown, so I’ll alter my thinking. Why post poem content, like a rap battle roast? Well it’s a special event, as my 2000th post!” Brick was then immediately tackled by a mime for breaking the fourth wall so badly. [OOC: Sorry for not posting last round. My vote wasn’t needed, fortunately. I’d expected to die before hitting this milestone and didn’t have anything fun prepared for it. Role reveals are, as always, optional. No pressure. And good work, everyone!]

More people had died. Brick sat cross-legged, contemplating the news while chewing on a branch. He had heard of another stick, on a planet far away, infused with special magics. That snack would be a worthy adversary, he thought to himself. The twig snapped in his teeth. “I am not convinced. My vote stands.” Dannex Thanks, Illwei for posting Striker’s posts. I remain convinced of Danex’s guilt because I believe at the start of the game, the elims decided to do their best to get through a few rounds without an elim kill. That meant supporting each other until it became necessary to cut their losses. This is a Quick Fix. The elims probably aren’t playing LG-style 3D chess. Overthinking their actions is going to be the death of us. I don’t want to be the one who has to explain to the screaming dead doc why we ignored all the clues we had. As a reminder, Striker made the following incriminating comments: “I'm not really sure where I stand, because I think Dannex could just be a very defensive player, so the defensiveness could just be that. But I also know that I get really defensive as an elim myself.” -Second post “I’m not sure how I feel about Dannex. I’m leaning more village than elim, but we’ll see.” -Fourth post “I’m still leaning village on Dannex. Anyone willing to vote Ash? Their vote on Dannex just felt off to me.” -Fifth post (Convenient counter-wagon attempt.) “I mean, I don’t want to exe you and I don’t want to exe Dannex.” -Seventh post After this, they began distancing themselves from Dannex. I propose that this was because the vote was Danex had become a lost cause for the Elims. With the potential for vote switching and manipulation, they were willing to try to save them with a vote manip (possibly two, if the village Grey’s Warder influenced them), but that was because they figured they were outed anyway, so they might as well waste our next day kill. I would have expected elim!Danex to make the night kill order on Liranil if that was the elim’s mindset, but that can be explained by the fact that Striker was a certain kill, per Liranil’s public statement, so they were even more at risk. From late Day One on, Striker’s behaviour changed, which I believe reflects a regrouping by the elim team and a change in strategy, making their comments after that less alignment indicative. Adding some meta analysis, giving some of the Elim power players no Warders makes sense because then they don’t have to justify themselves to a village player. And as we’ve said, a Brown on each side also makes sense. If Dannex is an elim, James and Gears look good while Quinn, Matrim, and especially Illwei will be suspicious. I suspect there’s a few villagers who were convinced to drop the Danex wagon, otherwise the debate wouldn’t be so vigorous, but there’s certainly some talkative elims among us, so I am suspicious of the way the group has moved on from what I view as these obvious red flags. Plus one on Breaker's idea, anyone whose partner dies should consider coming forward.

Pre-rollover reminder: DO NOT target Liranil today unless you are the Yellow Ajah. We do not want to confuse our Blue scanner, who will be (hopefully) watching for the elim killer. Discovering either the Yellow or an elim would be good because I think there’s a small but meaningful chance that the elims have a Yellow to balance the Green’s hefty power. Also, remember there’s a two-vote minimum for exes. I’m going to plus one Illwei’s ‘Safest Kill’ assessment. I would have suggested a kill list using similar logic, looking to not rock the boat in D1, avoid killing people who didn’t vote in hopes they will refrain again, and to keep the most talkative alive since they seem most eager to play the game. My list would have been something like Gears, Quinn, Connie, Matrim at the start, then weeded down to Connie because they talked the least of that group, I think. This all ignores, however, them being under a cloud of slight suspicion. Best guess is the kill was submitted before that and they never bothered to change it, or it’s meant to mess with us (eg. WGG, either because they’re a Warder or via elim!Yellow protection). Going forward, elim!me would start targeting villagey people. Everyone who is saying the Connie kill is strange is implying they think differently than the elims, so that’s interesting. Breaker is advocating for RNG picks with his rock-paper-scissors. Gears is allowing themselves to agree with ethos-based arguments. Both are red flags, but NAI in this situation. Burnt continues to high effort (high number of posts)-low value (little analysis) play, which I can’t decide if it’s elimy or if they are just having a casual game. [Future Archer here: I wrote this before seeing their big post, so I take this back. It’s not super aggressive, but it’s very, very useful TL;DR for a 13 page cycle, so I’ll link to it here so I can fins it again: https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/95096-qf50-cycle-2-not-the-yellow-brick-road/?do=findComment&comment=1169195] I’m a little suspicious how quickly Matrim accepted the WGG idea and has stuck with it, but other than that, I’ve seen nothing from them that screams elim. To Quinn’s earlier point, the elims will probably try to maintain their power by not killing individuals they are bonded to for now. This possibly allows the soft-clearing of partners of targets. [Future Archer here: Like Burnt?] I’m sticking with my Dannex vote. I didn’t like the posts of theirs I quoted in my last post, and them avoiding the exe seems too convenient. Lotus’ claim of there being two Browns also makes me think there is an elim and a village one, just for balance’s sake. I appreciate James nagging (that’s the wrong word, but you get the idea) Dannex about their logic, because even if they are wrong, it’s still a good idea to challenge and name the assumptions people make. Speaking of assumptions, I’d like to point out something that may affect how we see vote manipulation. We do not know if the Grey Ajah have a free vote. If the Greys have a Warder, they must justify their choices each round to them, lest the person come out and challenge their alignment. The village Grey has to do this with theirs, and the elim with theirs, assuming either of them have one who they do not know the alignment of. I request that Liranil publicly name her target a minute before rollover to prove their identity. If you can’t decide on a target, killing the vote count leader isn’t a bad idea, since it ensures they die and avoids another miskill. Dannex, please don’t scan anyone who may die tonight. The nice thing about Browns is they are incentivized to be honest, regardless of their alignment, because if they lie, the person they mis-assign a role to will call them out on it, unless they are both elims. As for the Brown!Burnt thing…whaaaaaa. Same advice to you, I guess. It’s possible, by the way, that TJ made two village Browns with elim Warders, since Warders and Ajah are likely to share information, so it doesn’t really matter who collects it. Same with any scanner-warder pair, the person in the driver’s seat doesn’t really matter in terms of what information gets back to the elim doc, unless the scanner is very paranoid. (Illwei, what is ‘couch’?) (Can someone please explain Wheel of Time gender dynamics to me? I think I'm missing something.) Edit: @TJ Shade how long until rollover? Because I had it down as 1pm EST, in an hour and change.

GM question: can the elims attack one of their own? Dannex As Brick slipped into the back of the meeting, he bemoaned the wasted spittle. The assembled individuals, some who he recognized, others who he did not, seemed to be discussing… Shrek? He didn’t know that name, but the evidence pointed to one of their own as being the killer, not some outsider. “You all need some rocks,” the big man announced to no one in particular. He pulled some pebbles from his pouch and began handing them out somewhat aggressively. “Do not chew them. They must be ground. Twenty-thousand bites at least. These will help you focus on the matter at hand. Need I remind you that two people are dead?” There was a muffled shout from the far side of the room. “Make that three.” *** Housekeeping: -For the record, I prefer an over-active thread to a dead one, but be careful of making high barriers to participation. Thanks to those who have posted TL;DRs. And to TJ for the regular vote counts. Personal request, if you switch votes a lot, can you please remember to green out your previous ones, or at least indicate it’s a switch? It makes it easier to follow the thread. Analysis: -Striker completely ignored my poke vote, which tells me nothing. -Gears and Breaker obviously coordinated their role-claims. This could have been done in a two-person Warder-Ajah PM (as they implied), in a three person PM (where there is an extra Warder present, probably whom Breaker suspects of being an elim, but who provides extra protection), or in the elim doc. This is a QF, so otherwise absurd gambits can work, but it risks outing two elims if either of them are killed, so I find that unlikely. They may have switched roles, with Gears being the true Blue and Breaker the true Warder, but that is easily disprovable and would make them suspicious. Therefore, I find it most likely that they are both telling the truth about their roles. One of them may be an elim because they have the confidence to share information that will likely get them targeted, but I find it more likely that they are fishing for Yellow protection and hoping to avoid a Green kill while providing useful information to the village. It’s a bold scheme, which doesn’t read as elimy to me. However, Gears has said it’s a ‘chaotic’ idea, so my best guess is they’re lying about the colour of Ajah Breaker is. Breaker has always been a vote-changer, but it remains a suspicious habit to do it so often. -“Warders don't start out knowing what kind of Ajah their partner is.” -Devotary of Spontaneity This incorrect statement is likely a slip, revealing that they are not a Warder or Ajah. If you’d like a vanilla to out themselves, try asking Devotary to. They may also have a power role but not be paired. That seems like the kind of position a Yellow would be put in, or perhaps an elim. -“Honestly fluff posting in thread is a pet peeve of mine.” -Illwei This is not reflective of their behaviour, in my opinion. If I’m being cynical, it could be read as an attempt to seem like a responsible towny. Otherwise, perhaps we disagree on our definitions of ‘fluff’. (Someone pull out Straw’s vote counter and see how many times everyone posted that round. Then make a kangaroo chart out of it while you’re at it.) -“Quick thoughts; Quinn and Illwei seem to be pretty helpful and village-y, though that’s a very mild village because it is c1 after all. Don’t really like how danex has been acting but I’m also unsure about the Danex vote, it kinda feels... off maybe, idk.” -Lotus This statement struck me as off because it excluded Matrim and James, who had also been posting similar content. I’d like to know why they trusted Quinn and Illwei and not the other two. -Danex, did you type your big defence post on mobile? If so, wow. I considered asking a vanilla to come forward too, early in the game, but decided that we could probably assume there were a few without doing that. Dannex had the same thought process as me, which I respect. I find their request NAI. According to claims, Liranil is not Dannex’s Warder, nor vice versa. Dannex has no Warder or PM. Dannex is a Brown Ajah. I did notice when they said: “Well I hope the village has another Brown then.” However, I read it differently than James. -“He slipped as Town!Brown, after an earlier softclaim. Specifically in using "another." (Edit: See my post #302 to see his softclaim. Will get a link shortly, got to go find it. Should be right at the top of page 13 tho)/ Dannex has been crumbig/softclaiming Brown for a while now, and sort of implying that he has outside information. There's IMO a lot of evidence to support his claim/slip whatever you want to call it. Also, this is so causally dropped it both seems more genuine and less considered, which makes me lean slip, not claim.” -James James was following the thread closely, so I suspected they were excited to get any information from their efforts. It is an understandable reaction. However, I read Dannex’s post as having a more frustrated tone: frustrated to be on the chopping block, and frustrated that they had to reveal as much about their role as they did. I believe they knew exactly what they were posting. A note on James’ early reads, I suspect the Elim team would have informed him that he could lie low for a bit and avoid being exed. He also seems to be posting independently, not working as part of a team, which would curtail his posts as he works to maintain a group strategy. For these reasons, they seem villagey, if more aggressive than many people are used to. I don’t mind their approach. -Under pressure, Liranil claimed green. It is widely agreed that there is only one of it. They can prove it by naming their kill in advance or by not having anyone come forward to dispute it. Given its value to the village, James coming out hard against Liranil struck me as odd. “Okay, the more Liranil posts the more I don't buy this. [red]Liranil. I know it's not popular but I'm pretty convinced this is a fakeclaim to live one more day.” -James Perhaps it’s culture shock, but this seemed like a bad vote for the village. Props to Illwei for disagreeing with his vote about 4 posts later. -James may be forgiven, but Dannex then voted Liranil too. “Ok, I’m back to [red]Liranil. This might seem super suspicious and wishy-washy, but I have reasons. Last time I was only voting for Liranil out of self-preservation. I’ve actually gone over their posts since then, and am genuinely suspicious of them. Their Green Ajah claim is just too convenient, what are the odds we hang the only green in the game on D1?” -Dannex The worst that could happen is elim!Liranil fake claims to avoid an exing. They use their Warder to shield them from the next exing, then we get them on D3. During that time they would be confirmed elim and we could read from that. Putting them on the chopping block seemed like a waste of a village exe when we could have waited until next time to confirm it. Danex scanning Liranil, who is the easiest role to elsewise prove, was also a bad decision. It would have been better to scan someone less likely to die, and less easily proven. Reminder, Brown Ajah is not a confirmed village role. Given the events of the last round, I believe it is actually an elim role, with the other three scanners being in the hands of the village. An elim team of Grey Ajah, Warder, Brown Ajah, Vanilla, Vanilla makes sense to me. Maybe with a Red Ajah instead of one of the Vanillas. Dannex could well have scanned someone else and be bluffing about Liranil. I do however buy their story that they are unwardered. Given their power, that makes sense. I would think that Liranil would be unwardered too, so they really should be protected often by the Yellows. The elims will likely target them at the end of D3. -Quinn posted a reads list that relied heavily on their experiences with players in previous games. It was cohesive, and a good post for D1, assuming they don’t base their speculation in later days solely on that angle. That said, I disagree with their suspicion of Gears. -“Now that people are abandoning the [green]Lotus exe, I will switch to [red]Liranil because I'm more suspicious of Liranil than of Danex, plus I think that the information from Danex (if they are really a Brown Ajah) is more helpful for finding elims than the kills from Liranil (If they are really a Green Ajah).” – Flying Books I don’t like this post at all. It implies their vote placement is sheepy, targets the person claiming the confirmed village role when no one had objected to the claim, and it assumes Brown is a village role. -“Here's the thing. I'm not a good player. I can't seem to come up with my own opinions, and typically I have to force myself to come up with people I'm suspicious of. Typically that means I follow other people who are better at reading intentions then me. That means it typically seems like I'm bussing, but I'm genuinely trying.” -Shard of Reading I was going to flag this as suspicious, but now that they’ve flipped village, I’ll leave it at a sad emoji: -Also on my radar is the fact that Burnt didn’t contribute much in the way of suspicions in any of their posts. My rule of thumb though is there is always at least one active elim, and they’re the easiest to catch, so I’m focussing on them for now. D2 Results Speculation -I agree to there likely being one village and one elim Grey Ajah, but it would have been funny if TJ made them both village. -As always, allowing the village to waste an exe is suspicious. Lotus has said they didn’t realize Warder would protect them against exing, so I’ll let it slide this time. -Condensation makes sense as a night kill, since they weren’t super active or super passive. They were in that nice sweet spot for elims. Waiting on TJ to confirm if being night attacked is AI.

Brick’s meditation was interrupted by the sound of chewing. “Young Snail, you are grinding too much with your molars.” The beefy man held up a hand. One of the two children seated in front of him looked up guiltily, mouth still full. “Smory, Brick.” “Take smaller bites next time. Now,” he turned to the other child, who was fidgeting nervously, “how did your meal go, Stump?” “I did it, Brick! I ate the whole horn. It only took me five thousand and eighty-two bites! And after, I washed it down with some of the cow’s own milk!” “Mm.” “Not before I was finished, I swear. Snail watched me do it!” “Young snail. It was a small creature. Tell me, Yarn, how did it taste?” The child gulped, legs bouncing as they tried to think. “Um. Leathery?” “That is a consistency, not a taste.” “Right. Right! It was bitter.” Brick paused. In the distance, the sounds of an argument breaking out could be heard. Something about Anaiya. “I accept your research. You have earned the nickname Horn.” He nodded to them both and got to his feet. “I must now depart. Dismissed.” *** I have intentionally written my rules speculation before looking at my GM PM, so this should be devoid of any clues to my role or alignment. (Or am I bluffing? :P) This is a 19-player game, so I’m guessing there are four to five elims. If the village has the Green Ajah, then there’s likely five, to compensate for the expanded kill power. Also to compensate, the elims might have some of their team protected by Warders, or the Yellow Ajah. The GM emphasized that roles are NAI, so I find it likely that at least one Ajah is an elim, and probably at least one Warder is an elim too, just to keep things evenly distributed. Watch for people thinking their Warder will protect them, then getting blindsided when they don’t. Red, Brown, Blue, and White Ajah are various form of scanners, so I’d guess at least one of them is an elim. Blue is a more village-helpful one, while Red and Brown are the most useful for the elim team. Yellow could go either way, so we’ll have to watch who they protect from elimination. Same with Grey. The catch on both is if you’re an elim using them and have a village Warder, you have to make excuses to avoid being caught protecting someone obviously elimy, or moving votes in a suspicious manner. I don’t want to assume that each role only appears once, but there’s probably some vanilla players in the group somewhere. This should be a fun game. Best of luck, everyone! StikerEZ

Count me in! I don't know WoT naming conventions, so I will RP as a man nicknamed Brick because he once ate an entire brick.

Hey, it's finally over! Good game, all. Nice doc math, Straw. Congrats to the elims, especially Quinn who had me fooled until I died. I had the benefit of seeing the first Elim doc, so I knew there were probably four of you, but I got vanilla villager both times so I (wrongly) assumed there was only one of each role going around. Turns out I was just unlucky! Thanks again to the GMs for restarting, and for running this. I'm starting to realize that 'balanced' doesn't mean 50/50 odds of winning. I get that the elims basically had it wrapped up after the first few rounds took out only villagers, but I can't help but be disappointed that sacrificing three elims in a row was a viable strategy for them. I think the spy role-switch is what cemented their win. I really did have a Super Awesome Strategy, and was waiting to collect more evidence on that super sus player... Straw. *facepalm* I now realize the strategy is flawed and its better to assume people are doing what it seems like they're doing, not what it seems like they want us to think they are doing. Lesson learned! Finally, I like the flavor elements of this game and the write-ups.